Esse trabalho tem como objetivo verificar se o sistema bancário brasileiro protege indivíduos contra os choques transitivos de renda. Por meio de experimentos e avaliação empírica, em pequenas regiões, a literatura tenta explicar como arranjos informais podem contornar os problemas de crédito causados por falhas informacionais e de comprometimento limitado. No entanto, falha em avaliar choques que afetam uma região geográfica ampla já que esses são comportados apenas por bancos. Através de um modelo de dois estágios com variação de renda instrumentalizada por variáveis climáticas, analisamos se existe um efeito significante entre os choques e as contas de crédito das instituições formais. Verificamos que os agentes usam poupança como meio principal de suavizar seu risco intertemporal. As contas de crédito, entretanto possuem um efeito distinto em municípios com mais desenvolvimento financeiro do que aqueles com menos. Isso indica que possuímos uma restrição de crédito para parte da população, deixando-a exposta ao seu risco.; This work aims to verify whether the Brazilian banking system protects individuals against transitive income shocks. Through experiments and empirical evaluation in small regions, literature tries to explain how informal arrangements can overcome credit problems caused by informational failures and limited commitment. But they fail to evaluate shocks that affect a broad geographic region that can only be dealt with banks. Through a two-stage model with varying income instrumentalized by climatic variables...
This paper presents empirical analysis
of corporate savings in Egypt using two datasets: a survey
of small and medium enterprises and data from accounting
statements for the largest publicly traded firms. There are
two main findings. First, larger firms invest more (they
have more physical saving) and have greater access to
finance than smaller firms. Second, despite the financial
deepening, the use of credit products has been declining
during the past decade. The study reaffirms the importance
of improving access to financial services in Egypt and
points out the need for more research. In addition,
policies aimed at reducing macroeconomic volatility are
likely to result in increased investment and growth in Egypt.
Although many studies indicate that both
the level and composition of public spending are significant
for economic growth, the results in the empirical literature
are still mixed. This paper studies the importance of
country sample selection and expenditure classification in
explaining these conflicting results. It investigates a set
of fast-growing countries versus a mix of countries with
different growth patterns. The regression specifications
include different components of public expenditure and total
fiscal revenues, always considering the overall government
budget constraint. Total public spending is first
disaggregated using a definition that classifies public
spending as productive versus unproductive components, an a
priori criterion that is based on the expected impact of
public spending items on the private sector production
function. After empirically confirming the validity of this
definition in the panel analysis, the authors suggest and
test an alternative definition of "core" public
spending that may be more appropriate for developing
countries. The empirical analysis shows that the link
between growth and public spending...
The relationship between the quality of political institutions and the performance of regulation has recently assumed greater prominence in the policy debate on the effectiveness of infrastructure industry reforms. Taking the view that political accountability is a key factor linking political and regulatory structures and processes, this article empirically investigates its impact on the performance of regulation in telecommunications in time-series–cross-sectional data sets for 29 developing countries and 23 developed countries during 1985–99. In addition to confirming some well-documented results on the positive role of regulatory governance in infrastructure industries, the article provides empirical evidence on the impact of the quality of political institutions and their modes of functioning on regulatory performance. The analysis finds that the impact of political accountability on the performance of regulation is stronger in developing countries. An important policy implication is that future reforms in these countries should give due attention to the development of politically accountable systems.
The goal of this paper is to understand
better, at the empirical level, how public spending
contributes to growth by focusing on both the level and
composition of public spending, in connection to the
dynamics of GDP per capita growth. It attempts to answer two
specific questions: (a) What are the policy conditions under
which public spending contributes positively to growth? and
(b) What are the public spending components that have a
stronger and longer-lasting impact on growth? The analysis
is applied to a sample of seven fast-growing developing
countries: Korea, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia,
Botswana, and Mauritius, which have been among the top
performers in the world in terms of GDP per capita growth
during the period (1960-2006). The rationale for this
country sample selection is twofold. The first hypothesis is
that, given their positive growth achievements over a
relatively long time period, perhaps it is more
straightforward to establish a link to public spending in
those countries. Second...
Emission permit trading is a centerpiece
of the Kyoto Protocol which allows participating nations to
trade and bank greenhouse gas permits under the Framework
Convention on Climate Change. When market conditions evolve
stochastically, emission trading produces a dynamic problem,
in which anticipation about the future economic environment
affects current banking decisions. In this paper, the author
explores the effect of increased uncertainty over future
output prices and input costs on the temporal distribution
of emissions. In a dynamic programming setting, a permit
price is a convex function of stochastic prices of
electricity and fuel. Increased uncertainty about future
market conditions increases the expected permit price and
causes a risk-neutral firm to reduce ex ante emissions so as
to smooth out marginal abatement costs over time. The
convexity results from the asymmetric impact of changes in
counterfactual emissions on the change of marginal abatement
costs. Empirical analysis corroborates the theoretical
prediction. The author finds that a 1 percent increase in
electricity price volatility measured by the annualized
standard deviation of percentage price change is associated
with an average decrease in the annual emission rate by 0.88
percent. Numerical simulation suggests that high uncertainty
could induce substantially early abatements...
The aim of this paper is to empirically explore the relationship between the quality of political institutions and the performance of regulation, an issue that has recently occupied much of the policy debate on the effectiveness of infrastructure industry reforms. Taking the view that political accountability is a key factor that links political structures and regulatory processes, the authors investigate, for the case of telecommunications, its impact on the performance of regulation in two time-series-cross-sectional data sets on 29 developing countries and 23 industrial countries covering the period 1985-99. In addition to confirming some well documented results on the positive role of regulatory governance in infrastructure industries, the authors provide empirical evidence on the impact of the quality of political institutions and their modes of functioning on regulatory performance. The analysis of the data sets shows that the (positive) effect of political accountability on the performance of regulation is stronger in developing countries. An important policy implication of this finding is that future reforms in these countries should give due attention to the development of politically accountable systems.
This article examines two sources of global knowledge spillovers: foreign direct investments (FDI) and trade. Empirical evidence demonstrates that FDI and trade can contribute to overall domestic productivity growth only when the technology gap between domestic and foreign firms is not too large and when a sufficient absorptive capacity is available in domestic firms. In this article we propose the terms R&D and Labor quality to capture the innovative and absorptive capacity of the country. The spillovers effects in productivity are analyzed using a stochastic frontier (SFA) approach. This productivity (in terms of total factor productivity) is decomposed using a generalized Malmquist output-oriented index in order to evaluate the specific effect in technical change (TC), technical efficiency change (TEC), and scale efficiency change (SEC). Using country-level data for 16 Latin American countries for the period 1996–2006, the empirical analysis shows positive productivity spillovers from FDI and trade only when the country has absorptive capacity in terms of R&D. FDI and trade spillovers are found to be positive and significant for scale efficiency change and total productivity factor change.
This paper analyzes annual accounting
data for a sample of 5,000 publicly traded manufacturing
firms from Germany, France, Italy, Japan, and the United
Kingdom. The analysis uses data from 1997 to 2011 and finds
an increasing trend of excess savings (defined as the
difference between gross saving and capital formation) and a
gradual decline of gross capital formation. This trend is
accompanied by a steady deleveraging process and a decrease
in the share of operating assets in total assets. This
process is more acute among the more credit constrained, the
more volatile, and the less dynamic firms.
Under pressure from donor agencies and
international financial institutions such as the World Bank,
some developing countries have experimented with the
privatization of water services. This article reviews the
econometric evidence on the effects of water privatization
in developing economies and presents new results using
statistical data envelopment analysis and stochastic cost
frontier techniques and data from Africa. The analysis fails
to show evidence of better performance by private utilities
than by state owned utilities. Among the reasons why water
privatization could prove problematic in lower-income
economies are the technology of water provision and the
nature of the product, transaction costs, and regulatory weaknesses.
There has been increasing use of
technical regulations as instruments of commercial policy in
the context of multilateral, regional, and global trade.
These nontariff barriers are of special concern to
developing countries, which may bear additional costs in
meeting mandatory standards. Many industrial and developing
countries express frustration with regulations that vary
across their export markets, require duplicative conformity
procedures, and are continually revised to exclude imports.
The authors provide a comprehensive overview of the policy
debate and methodological issues surrounding product
standards and technical barriers to trade. They begin with a
review of the policy context driving demand for empirical
analysis of standards in trade, then provide an analytical
overview of the role of standards and their relationship to
trade. They then review methodological approaches that have
been used to analyze standards and their impact on trade.
Their main interest lies in advancing techniques that are
practical and may be fruitfully extended to the empirical
analysis of regulations and trade. They discuss concrete
steps that could be taken to move forward a practical...
Legal scholars have written extensively about baseball’s Infield Fly Rule--its history and logic, its use as legal metaphor, and its cost-benefit policy rationales. This paper now conducts the first empirical analysis of the rule, exploring whether the rule’s legal and policy justifications are statistically supported. Based on a review of every fly ball caught by an infielder in the relevant game situation in Major League Baseball from 2010-2013, this paper measures the frequency and location of Infield Fly calls and the effect the rule has on individual games, all to determine whether the feared cost-benefit disparities that motivate the rule would, in fact, result absent the rule. Ultimately, the merits of the Infield Fly Rule cannot be measured empirically, at least not without resort to some ex ante value judgments; the normative conclusion one draws about these data depends on where one starts--a supporter of the rule and a skeptic both will find confirmation in the information gathered in this paper. Nevertheless, the numbers shed specific and interesting light on the realities of baseball’s most unique and famous (or infamous) play.
The authors assess for 28 developing countries over the period 1980-2001 whether the existence of a regulatory law and higher quality regulatory governance are significantly associated with superior electricity outcomes. Their analysis draws on theoretical and empirical work on the impact of independent central banks and of developing country telecommunications regulators. The authors' empirical analysis concludes that a regulatory law and higher quality governance are positively and significantly associated with higher per capita generation capacity levels. In addition, this positive impact continues to increase for at least three years and probably for over 10 years as experience develops and regulatory reputation grows. The results are robust to alternative dynamic specifications and show no sign of any significant endogeneity
This paper investigates the leading causes of nonperforming loans during the economic and banking crises that affected a large number of countries in Sub-Saharan Africa in the 1990s. Empirical analysis shows a dramatic increase in these loans and extremely high credit risk, with significant differences between the CFA and non-CFA countries, and substantially higher financial costs for the latter sub-panel of countries. The results also highlight a strong causality between these loans and economic growth, real exchange rate appreciation, the real interest rate, net interest margins, and interbank loans consistent with the causality and econometric analysis, which reveal the significance of macroeconomic and microeconomic factors. The dramatic increase in these loans is largely driven by macroeconomic volatility and reflects the vulnerability of undiversified African economies, which remain heavily exposed to external shocks. Simulated results show that macroeconomic stability and economic growth are associated with a declining level of nonperforming loans; whereas adverse macroeconomic shocks coupled with higher cost of capital and lower interest margins are associated with a rising scope of nonperforming loans. These results are supported by long-term estimates of nonperforming loans derived from pseudo panel-based prediction models.
Standard political economy theories
suggest that democratization has a moderating effect on
income inequality. But the empirical literature has failed
to uncover any such robust relationship. The authors take
another look at the issue. The authors argue that prevailing
ideology may be an important determinant of inequality and
that the democratization effect "works through"
ideology. In societies that value equality highly there is
less distributional conflict among income groups, so
democratization may have only a negligible effect on
inequality. But in societies that value equality less,
democratization reduces inequality through redistribution as
the poor outvote the rich. The authors' cross-country
empirical analysis, covering 126 countries in 1960-98,
confirms the hypothesis: ideology, as proxied by a
country's dominant religion, seems to be related to
inequality. In addition, while in Judeo-Christian societies
increased democratization appears to lead to lower
inequality, in Muslim and Confucian societies it has an
insignificant effect. The authors hypothesize that Muslim
and Confucian societies rely on informal transfers to reach
the desired level of inequality...
This book sheds light on the characteristics of formal and informal manufacturing firms in Africa by comparing these firms with firms in other regions. Drawing on two data sources, the authors find that there is a very low share of manufacturing in GDP in Africa and in African exports. Most African manufacturing firms are informal. These firms are also smaller than firms in other regions and few export. Labor productivity is low in Africa relative to other regions, but this may be because of the more challenging environment - with the lack of physical infrastructure, the heavy burden of business regulation, and other issues. However, after accounting for these differences, the authors find that firms in Sub-Saharan Africa appear more, not less, productive than firms elsewhere. This analysis suggests that improving the business environment might allow firms to enhance their performance. However, given the pervasive distortions in the business environment and the limited resources at the disposal of most African countries, Africa cannot and should not wait until the business environment becomes healthier before growing a more viable manufacturing sector. The book shows that binding constraints vary by country, by sector, and by firm size. Therefore...
This paper examines alternative
frameworks for empirical analysis of supply side activities,
namely, the manufacture and distribution of medicine,
through the application of New Institutional Economics (NIE)
concepts. Attention is focused particularly upon the
potential utility of ideas from agency theory, transaction
cost analysis and contemporary ideas from strategy theory.
The major purpose of this paper is to use these theoretical
frameworks to provide insight for policy makers, when faced
with specific situations, whether in an international
agency, or a private company, or in defining a national
strategy. The analysis attempts to show the importance of
distinctions between ideas of 'make' or
'buy', between 'national self
sufficiency' and 'international purchasing'
strategies, the limitations of contractual agreements under
market governance and the crucial linkages between strategy
formulation, strategy implementation and the necessary
capabilities to achieve successful performance in practice.
The current international situation on the investment...
Although many studies indicate that both
the level and composition of public spending are significant
for economic growth, the results in the empirical literature
are still mixed. This note is based on a paper of the same
title (Bayraktar and Moreno-Dodson 2010) that compares a set
of fast-growing developing countries to a mix of developing
countries with different growth patterns. Considering the
full government budget constraint, the empirical analysis
shows that public spending, especially its 'core'
components, contributes to economic growth only in countries
that are capable of using funds for productive purposes. In
addition, those countries must have an adequate economic
policy environment with macroeconomic stability, openness,
and private sector investments that are conducive to growth.
Keywords in scientific articles have found their significance in information
filtering and classification. In this article, we empirically investigated
statistical characteristics and evolutionary properties of keywords in a very
famous journal, namely Proceedings of the National Academy of Science of the
United States of America (PNAS), including frequency distribution, temporal
scaling behavior, and decay factor. The empirical results indicate that the
keyword frequency in PNAS approximately follows a Zipf's law with exponent
0.86. In addition, there is a power-low correlation between the cumulative
number of distinct keywords and the cumulative number of keyword occurrences.
Extensive empirical analysis on some other journals' data is also presented,
with decaying trends of most popular keywords being monitored. Interestingly,
top journals from various subjects share very similar decaying tendency, while
the journals of low impact factors exhibit completely different behavior. Those
empirical characters may shed some light on the in-depth understanding of
semantic evolutionary behaviors. In addition, the analysis of keyword-based
system is helpful for the design of corresponding recommender systems.; Comment: 9 pages, 1 table and 4 figures
Portfolio Optimization is a common financial econometric application that draws on various types of statistical methods. The goal of portfolio optimization is to determine the ideal allocation of assets to a given set of possible investments. Many optimization models use classical statistical methods, which do not fully account for estimation risk in historical returns or the stochastic nature of future returns. By using a fully Bayesian analysis, however, this analysis is able to account for these aspects and also incorporate a complete information set as a basis for the investment decision. The information set is made up of the market equilibrium, an investor/expert’s personal views, and the historical data on the assets in question. All of these inputs are quantified and Bayesian methods are used to combine them into a succinct portfolio optimization model. For the empirical analysis, the model is tested using monthly re- turn data on stock indices from Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Japan, the U.K. and the U.S.; Economics Honors Thesis