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The Evolution of Agricultural Trade Flows

Aksoy, M. Ataman; Ng, Francis
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.85%
Earlier research showed that during the 1980s and 1990s most of the global agricultural trade expansion took place among the industrial countries and among countries within trade blocs. These were also periods of declining agricultural prices. These prices increased during the 2000s, there were continuous trade reforms, and many developing countries started to support their agricultural sectors. This paper analyzes trade flows during the past two decades, and tries to measure whether all these developments have changed the trade balances and the share of different groups within the global trade flows. In addition, it looks at the trade balances on food to see the impact of these changes on net food importing countries. In conclusion, unlike the case with manufacturing, developing countries have not been able to increase their export shares in agriculture as significantly. They have maintained their trade shares by primarily expanding exports to other developing countries.

Global Agricultural Trade and Developing Countries

Aksoy, M. Ataman; Beghin, John C.
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.68%
This book explores the outstanding issues in global agricultural trade policy and evolving world production and trade patterns. Its coverage of agricultural trade issues ranges from the details of cross-cutting policy issues to the highly distorted agricultural trade regimes of industrial countries and detailed studies of agricultural commodities of economic importance to many developing countries. The book brings together the background issues and findings to guide researchers and policymakers in their global negotiations and domestic policies on agriculture. The book also explores the key questions for global agricultural policies, both the impacts of current trade regimes and the implications of reform. It complements the recent agricultural trade handbook that focuses primarily on the agricultural issues within the context of the World Trade Organization (WTO) negotiations (Ingco and Nash 2004).

Reforming Agricultural Trade for Developing Countries : Volume 1. Key Issues for a Pro-Development Outcome of the Doha Round

McCalla, Alex F.; Nash, John
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.44%
Reforming agricultural trade for developing countries is a two-volume set. The first volume is subtitled Key issues for a pro- development outcome of the Doha Round, and it is focused on specific concerns that are being encountered in the agricultural negotiations, and on strategies for dealing with them to arrive at a final agreement that will significantly spur growth and reduce poverty in developing countries. The companion volume is subtitled Quantifying the impact of multilateral trade reform. It comprises chapters that take different approaches to modeling trade reform and quantifying the resulting benefits and costs to various players in the negotiations. The study explains the differences in results that come out of these different approaches, and compares them to some other recent estimates of the gains from global trade reform.

Reforming Agricultural Trade for Developing Countries : Volume 2. Quantifyng the Impact of Multilateral Trade Reform

McCalla, Alex F.; Nash, John
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.45%
Reforming agricultural trade for developing countries is a two-volume set. The first volume is subtitled Key issues for a pro- development outcome of the Doha Round, and it is focused on specific concerns that are being encountered in the agricultural negotiations, and on strategies for dealing with them to arrive at a final agreement that will significantly spur growth and reduce poverty in developing countries. The companion volume is subtitled Quantifying the impact of multilateral trade reform. It comprises chapters that take different approaches to modeling trade reform and quantifying the resulting benefits and costs to various players in the negotiations. The study explains the differences in results that come out of these different approaches, and compares them to some other recent estimates of the gains from global trade reform.

Agriculture and the WTO : Creating a Trading System for Development

Ingco, Merlinda D.; Nash, John D.
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank and Oxford University Press Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank and Oxford University Press
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.77%
This publication explores the key issues and options in agricultural trade liberalization from a developing country perspective. Chapters cover market access, domestic support, export competition, quota administration methods, food security, biotechnology, intellectual property rights, agricultural trade under the Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture (URAA), and many other subjects, always focusing on the question of how the outcome of the World Trade Organization (WTO) negotiations can be made pro-development. Material is covered in summary and in comprehensive detail with supporting data tables, text boxes, figures, and a detailed table of contents. Many chapters have a substantial bibliography, listings of online resources, and tables summarizing the major points of WTO member country proposals that deal directly with each chapter topic.

Agricultural Trade Liberalization in a New Trade Round : Perspectives of Developing Countries and Transition Economies

Ingco, Merlinda; Winters, L. Alan
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication; Publications & Research :: Publication
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.79%
This discussion paper contains seven studies, designed to a) review, and assess the impact of the implementation of the Uruguay Round (UR) Agreement on Agriculture, and, b) to analyze the key issues, interests, and options for developing countries in the new World Trade Organization's (WTO) round of multilateral trade negotiations in agriculture. Six regional case studies are presented: Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, Latin America, Eastern Asia, Central and Eastern Europe, and industrial countries. A quantitative analysis of the dynamics of multilateral liberalization in food, and agricultural trade is also presented. Among some of the key conclusions, it is suggested that much preparatory work was achieved in bringing agriculture fully into the multilateral trading system during the UR, and, a significant achievement was the development of a broad framework for reductions in trade-distorting policies. The UR was also successful in negotiating reduced volumes of subsidized exports, and in providing at least...

Global Distortions to Agricultural Markets : New Indicators of Trade and Welfare Impacts, 1955 to 2007

Lloyd, Peter J.; Croser, Johanna L.; Anderson, Kym
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.44%
Despite recent reforms, world agricultural markets remain highly distorted by government policies. Traditional indicators of those price distortions can be poor guides to the policies' economic effects. Recent theoretical literature provides indicators of trade and welfare-reducing effects of price and trade policies which this paper builds on to develop more-satisfactory indexes. The authors exploit a new Agricultural Distortion database to generate estimates of them for developing and high-income countries over the past half century. These better approximations of the trade and welfare effects of sector policies are generated without a formal model of global markets or even price elasticity estimates.

Reducing Agricultural Tariffs versus Domestic Support : What's More Important for Developing Countries?

Hoekman, Bernard M.; Ng, Francis; Olarreaga, Marcelo
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.68%
High levels of protection and domestic support for farmers in industrial countries significantly affect many developing countries, both directly and through the price-depressing effect of agricultural support policies. High tariffs--in both rich and poor countries--and domestic support may also lower the world price of agricultural products, benefiting net importers. The authors assess the impact of reducing tariffs and domestic support in a sample of 119 countries. Least developed countries (LDCs) are disproportionately affected by agricultural support policies. More than 18 percent of LDC exports are subject to domestic support in at least one World Trade Organization (WTO) member, as compared to only 9 percent of their imports. For other developing countries the figures are around 4 percent for both their exports and imports. So, the prevailing pattern of trade suggests the world price-reducing effect of agricultural domestic support policies may induce a welfare loss in LDCs. The authors develop a simple partial equilibrium model of global trade in commodities that benefit from domestic support in at least one WTO member. The simulation results suggest there will be large differences between LDCs and other developing economies in terms of the impact of a 50 percent cut in tariffs as compared to a 50 percent cut in domestic support. Developing countries as a group would suffer a welfare loss from a cut in support...

The Role of Importers and Exporters in the Determination of the U.S. Tariff Preferences Granted to Latin America

Silva, Peri
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.51%
This paper investigates the role played by domestic importers and foreign exporters in improving preferential access to the domestic market. To this end, the framework used in this paper extends the protection for sale analysis to explicitly model the role of domestic importers and foreign exporters in the determination of preferential trade treatment. The predictions of the model are tested using data on preferential trade between the United States and Latin American countries. The results suggest that Latin American exporters and U.S. importers' lobbying efforts have a significant and important role in determining the extent of preferential access granted by the United States. More interestingly, these findings also show that U.S. importers capture a very substantial share of the rents generated by tariff preferences. These results therefore shed a pessimistic view on preferential trade schemes as a reliable source of gains for developing countries.

Agricultural Trade Reform and the Doha Development Agenda

Anderson, Kym; Martin, Will
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.46%
Anderson and Martin examine the extent to which various regions, and the world as a whole, could gain from multilateral trade reform over the next decade. They use the World Bank's linkage model of the global economy to examine the impact first of current trade barriers and agricultural subsidies, and then of possible outcomes from the World Trade Organization's Doha round. The results suggest moving to free global merchandise trade would boost real incomes in Sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia (and in Cairns Group countries) proportionately more than in other developing countries or high-income countries. Real returns to farm land and unskilled labor and real net farm incomes would rise substantially in those developing country regions, thereby alleviating poverty. A Doha partial liberalization could take the world some way toward those desirable outcomes, but more so the more agricultural subsidies are disciplined and applied tariffs are cut.

Agricultural Tariffs or Subsidies : Which Are More Important for Developing Economies?

Hoekman, Bernard; Ng, Francis; Olarreaga, Olarreaga
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
Tipo: Journal Article; Publications & Research :: Journal Article; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.76%
This article assesses the impact of the world price-depressing effect of agricultural subsidies and border protection in Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries on developing economies' exports, imports, and welfare. Developing economy exporters are likely to benefit from reductions in such subsidies and trade barriers, whereas net importers may lose as world prices rise. A simple partial equilibrium model of global trade in commodities that benefit from domestic support or export subsidies is developed to estimate the relevant elasticities. Simulation results suggest that a 50 percent reduction in border protection will have a much larger positive impact on developing economies' exports and welfare than a 50 percent reduction in agricultural subsidies. Although there is significant heterogeneity across developing economies, the results suggest that efforts in the Doha round of World Trade Organization (WTO) negotiations should be directed at substantially reducing border protection.

Agricultural Trade : What Matters in the Doha Round?

Laborde, David; Martin, Will
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.69%
This survey concludes that including agriculture in the Doha Agenda negotiations was important both economically and politically, although the political resistance to reform is particularly strong in this sector. While agriculture accounts for less than 10 percent of merchandise trade, high and variable agricultural distortions appear to cause the majority of the cost of distortions to global merchandise trade. Within agriculture, most of the costs appear to arise from trade barriers levied on imports since these barriers tend to be high, variable across time and over products, and are levied by a wide range of countries. The negotiations faced a need for balance between discipline in reducing tariffs and hence creating the market access gains that are central to the negotiations, and flexibility in managing political pressures. While the approach of providing flexibility on a certain percentage of tariff lines is seriously flawed, the proposed Modalities still appear to provide worthwhile market access. Better ways appear to be needed to deal with developing countries' concerns about food price volatility while reducing the collective-action problems resulting from price insulation.

Agricultural Exports from Latin America and the Caribbean : Harnessing Trade to Feed the World and Promote Development

Chaherli, Nabil; Nash, John
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Commodities Study; Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.43%
The United Nations estimates that global food demand will double by 2050, with much of that growth in developing countries. The world will have 2.3 billion more people, and given the deep transformation of growth trajectories in low-income countries, they will be increasingly affluent, with demands for more, different, and better food. While countries in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) are quite heterogeneous in their production potential, overall they are well equipped to contribute to meeting this challenge. LAC has always maintained a strong comparative advantage in agricultural production, as indicated not only by its position as a net food exporter but also by its high comparative advantage. LAC is also well endowed in renewable water resources, with about a third of the 42,000 cubic kilometers worldwide. Per capita, LAC has the highest endowment of renewable water among developing regions, though some sub regions in LAC face higher than average scarcity. This report's in-depth look at Argentina and Brazil identifies looming logistics and policy issues that threaten to derail these locomotives of agricultural growth and some policy choices that have contributed to their success and that might be worth emulating. While LAC countries have substantially reduced the anti-export and anti-agricultural biases in their trade regimes...

Reducing Distortions to Agricultural Incentives: Progress, Pitfalls and Prospects

Anderson, Kym
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.69%
Most of the world's poorest people depend on farming for their livelihood. Earnings from farming in low-income countries are depressed partly due to a pro-urban bias in own-country policies, and partly because richer countries (including some developing countries) favor their farmers with import barriers and subsidies. Both sets of policies reduce national and global economic growth and add to inequality and poverty in developing countries. Acknowledgement of that since the 1980s has given rise to greater pressures for reform, both internal and external. Over the past two decades numerous developing country governments have reduced their sectoral and trade policy distortions, while many high-income countries continue with protectionist policies that harm developing country exports of farm products. Recent research suggests that the agricultural protectionist policies of high-income countries reduce welfare in many developing countries. Most of those studies also suggest that full global liberalization of merchandise trade would raise value added in agriculture in developing country regions, and that much of the benefit from global reform would come not just from reform in high-income countries but also from liberalization among developing countries...

The Effect of Product Standards on Agricultural Exports from Developing Countries

Ferro, Esteban; Wilson, John S.; Otsuki, Tsunehiro
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.58%
The authors create a standards restrictiveness index using newly available data on maximum residue levels of pesticides for 61 importing countries. The paper analyzes the impact that food safety standards have on international trade of agricultural products. The findings suggest that more restrictive standards are associated, on average, with a lower probability of observing trade. However, after controlling for sample selection and the proportion of exporting firms in a gravity model, the analysis finds that the effect of standards on trade intensity is indistinguishable from zero. This is consistent with the assumption that meeting stringent standards increases primarily the fixed costs of exporting. Once firms enter the market, however, standards do not impact the level of exports. The analysis also finds a greater marginal effect of BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) standards on the probability of trade, relative to other countries' standards, keeping in mind however that on average BRICS standards are less restrictive. The analysis also suggests that exporters in low-income countries are more adversely affected by stricter standards.

Measuring the Impact of a Change in the Price of Cashew Received by Exporters on Farmgate Prices and Poverty in Guinea-Bissau

Cont, Walter; Porto, Guido
Fonte: World Bank Group, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank Group, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.54%
This paper assesses the impact of a change in the price of cashew received by exporters in general -- and by FUNPI, a fund to promote the industrialization of agricultural products, in particular -- on farmgate prices and poverty in Guinea-Bissau. The analysis builds a theoretical model of supply chains in export agriculture that includes exporters, traders, and farmers competing in a bilateral oligopoly fashion. The model is adapted to data from the country's cashew sector and a household survey. Given the market structure, a shock on export prices or the introduction of an export tax, such as the FUNPI contribution, has a strong effect on farmgate prices, as farmers absorb about 80 percent of the tax (while exporters take up 13 percent and traders absorb the remaining 7 percent). The effect is uneven across households, as poor rural households are more exposed to price volatility and most cashew farmers are poor. It is estimated that their income falls by 12 percent as a result of the FUNPI contribution. Complementary policies can overcome the effect of the FUNPI surcharge on farmgate prices by aiming for reductions in transport...

Agricultural Trade Reform and the Doha Development Agenda

Martin, Will; Anderson, Kym
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank and Palgrave Macmillan Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank and Palgrave Macmillan
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication; Publications & Research :: Publication
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.47%
Agriculture is yet again causing contention in international trade negotiations. It caused long delays to the Uruguay round in the late 1980s and 1990s, and it is again proving to be the major stumbling block in the World Trade Organization's (WTO) Doha round of multilateral trade negotiations (formally known as the Doha Development Agenda, or DDA). This study builds on numerous recent analyses of the Doha Development Agenda and agricultural trade, including five very helpful books that appeared in 2004. One, edited by Aksoy and Beghin (2004), provides details of trends in global agricultural markets and policies, especially as they affect nine commodities of interest to developing countries. Another, edited by Ingco and Winters (2004), includes a wide range of analyses based on papers revised following a conference held just before the aborted WTO trade ministerial meeting in Seattle in 1999. The third, edited by Ingco and Nash (2004), provides a follow-up to the broad global perspective of the Ingco and winters volume: it explores a wide range of key issues and options in agricultural trade reform from a developing-country perspective. The fourth...

Measuring Distortions to Agricultural Incentives, Revisited

Anderson, Kym; Kurzweil, Marianne; Martin, Will; Sandri, Damiano; Valenzuela, Ernesto
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.47%
Notwithstanding the tariffication component of the Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture, import tariffs on farm products continue to provide an incomplete indication of the extent to which agricultural producer and consumer incentives are distorted in national markets. Especially in developing countries, non-agricultural policies indirectly impact agricultural and food markets. Empirical analysis aimed at monitoring distortions to agricultural incentives thus need to examine both agricultural and non-agricultural policy measures including import or export taxes, subsidies and quantitative restrictions, plus domestic taxes or subsidies on farm outputs or inputs and consumer subsidies for food staples. This paper addresses the practical methodological issues that need to be faced when attempting to undertake such a measurement task in developing countries. The approach is illustrated in two ways: by presenting estimates of nominal and relative rates of assistance to farmers in China for the period 1981 to 2005; and by summarizing estimates from an economy-wide computable general equilibrium model of the effects on agricultural versus non-agricultural markets of the project's measured distortions globally as of 2004.

The European Horticulture Market : Opportunities for Sub-Saharan African Exporters; Le marche europeen des produits horticoles : opportunites pour les exportateurs d Afrique subsaharienne

Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication; Publications & Research :: Publication
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.62%
Trade is an essential driver for sustained economic growth, and growth is necessary for poverty reduction. In Sub-Saharan Africa, where three-fourths of the poor live in rural areas, spurring growth and generating income and employment opportunities is critical for poverty reduction strategies. Seventy percent of the population lives in rural areas, where livelihoods are largely dependent on the production and export of raw agricultural commodities such as coffee, cocoa, and cotton, whose prices in real terms have been steadily declining over the past decades. The deterioration in the terms of trade resulted for Africa in a steady contraction of its share in global trade over the past 50 years. Diversification of agriculture into higher-value, non-traditional exports is seen today as a priority for most of these countries. Some African countries-in particular, Kenya, South Africa, Uganda, Côte d'Ivoire, Senegal, and Zimbabwe-have managed to diversify their agricultural sector into non-traditional, high-value-added products such as cut flowers and plants...

Liberalizing Trade in Agriculture: Developing Countries in Asia and the Post-Doha Agenda; ?

Wilson, John S.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, D.C. Publicador: World Bank, Washington, D.C.
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.76%
The author provides an overview and data relevant to the interests of developing countries as they engage in continuing agricultural trade negotiations set forth in the World Trade Organization Ministerial held in Doha, Qatar in November 2001. He examines country performance in agricultural trade, income levels, and population characteristics, with a focus on developing country members of the Asian Development Bank. The author concludes that trends in agricultural trade in the past 10 years are quite heterogeneous across developing regions. Shares of agriculture in GDP are still high in the East Asia and Pacific and South Asia regions. Moreover, data indicate that trade reform in export partners, particularly OECD countries, will affect a significant share of the population in these developing countries, resulting in rural poverty alleviation. Trade liberalization is expected to benefit net exporter countries, particularly those that are highly open to trade. What is also important, but often neglected, is a country's pattern of specialization between domestic supply and exports. The impact of trade reform through the WTO negotiations...