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"Grow and multiply": social development, birth rates and demographic transition in the Municipality of São Paulo, Brazil, time-series for 1901-94

Antunes,José Leopoldo Ferreira
Fonte: Associação Brasileira de Saúde Coletiva Publicador: Associação Brasileira de Saúde Coletiva
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: text/html
Publicado em 01/04/1998 EN
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This study reports the construction of time-series related to standardized mortality rate, proportional mortality ratio of Swaroop and Uemura, infant mortality rate, fetal death rate, expectation of life at birth and birth rate for the city of São Paulo, SP, Brazil, from 1901 to 1994. In order to determine the structural variation of these measures, the model, forecast and correlation of these series were submitted to statistical analysis. The results obtained were compared to the historical analysis of the major socioe-conomic phenomena during this period in an effort to explain populational movements in the city, with emphasis on the slow and late nature of the process of demographic transition in the city. It was concluded that time-series analysis for demographic measures is efficient in many ways: by allowing the application of statistical methodology to the human sciences, by passing the difficulties inherent in the characteristics of these values (serial correlation, heteroscedasticity, multicollinearity and non-normality of forecast error distribution), by integrating quantitative analysis with the historical interpretation of the phenomena approached, by projecting estimates of future trends on the basis of the behavior of the variables analyzed...

The opportunity costs of the status quo in the Thamarrurr Region

Taylor, John; Stanley, Owen
Fonte: Universidade Nacional da Austrália Publicador: Universidade Nacional da Austrália
Tipo: Working/Technical Paper Formato: 2453012 bytes; 354 bytes; application/pdf; application/octet-stream
EN_AU
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Given the substantial deficits in economic activity, infrastructure and human capital identified by the ICCP/COAG trial in the Thamarrurr Region of the Northern Territory, questions were asked by the COAG partners as to the opportunity cost—both to governments and the local community—of sustaining the status quo. This report presents the findings of a study aimed at answering these questions. It follows a methodology first deployed by the Canadian Royal Commission on Aboriginal Peoples. Using secondary data sources and information on program expenditures provided by Commonwealth and Northern Territory government departments it quantifies both costs due to foregone production and costs due to the remedial actions necessary to compensate for low socioeconomic status as benchmarked against an average set of costs—in this case those incurred in the Northern Territory as a whole. Analysis of these costs reveals that the value of output forgone at Thamarrurr amounts to $43.8 million per annum. As for remedial costs, these are found to be negative to the tune of $4 million per annum. Thus after accounting for all government dollars and transfer payments expended on residents of the Thamarrurr region, far less is spent on them per head than is spent on the average Territorian. What emerges is a structural imbalance in funding at Thamarrurr...

"Grow and multiply": social development, birth rates and demographic transition in the Municipality of São Paulo, Brazil, time-series for 1901-94

Antunes,José Leopoldo Ferreira
Fonte: Associação Brasileira de Pós -Graduação em Saúde Coletiva Publicador: Associação Brasileira de Pós -Graduação em Saúde Coletiva
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: text/html
Publicado em 01/04/1998 EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
26.95%
This study reports the construction of time-series related to standardized mortality rate, proportional mortality ratio of Swaroop and Uemura, infant mortality rate, fetal death rate, expectation of life at birth and birth rate for the city of São Paulo, SP, Brazil, from 1901 to 1994. In order to determine the structural variation of these measures, the model, forecast and correlation of these series were submitted to statistical analysis. The results obtained were compared to the historical analysis of the major socioe-conomic phenomena during this period in an effort to explain populational movements in the city, with emphasis on the slow and late nature of the process of demographic transition in the city. It was concluded that time-series analysis for demographic measures is efficient in many ways: by allowing the application of statistical methodology to the human sciences, by passing the difficulties inherent in the characteristics of these values (serial correlation, heteroscedasticity, multicollinearity and non-normality of forecast error distribution), by integrating quantitative analysis with the historical interpretation of the phenomena approached, by projecting estimates of future trends on the basis of the behavior of the variables analyzed...