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Modelo matemático para o estudo da propagação de informações por campanhas educativas e rumores; Mathematical Model to study the spread of information from educative campaigns and rumors

Pachi, Clarice Gameiro da Fonseca
Fonte: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP Publicador: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 08/02/2007 PT
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Formulamos um modelo matemático determinístico baseado no princípio de ação de massas, em analogia aos trabalhos que estudam a dinâmica de doenças infecciosas em Epidemiologia. Analisamos a dinâmica do espalhamento de rumores levando em conta a simetria no número de contatos diretos entre suscetíveis e infectados pelo rumor e estudamos as implicações de uma campanha publicitária educativa na dinâmica do modelo. Posteriormente, propomos uma simplificação do modelo e desconsideramos o contato entre os indivíduos suscetíveis e infectados supostamente mais resistentes às novidades. Discutimos suas implicações no espalhamento do rumor e a conexão com os parâmetros que descrevem o comportamento social.; We have developed a deterministic mathematical model based on the mass-action principle, in analogy to the works that study the dynamics of infectious diseases in Epidemiology. We analyzed the dynamic of rumors spreading, taking into account the symmetry of contacts among susceptible and infectious individuals and studied the implications of an educative broadcasting advertising in the model. Afterwards, we proposed a simplification ot the model excluding the contact among susceptible and infected individuals supposedly more resistant to novelities. Their implications to the spread of rumor and its connection with parameters describing social behavior are discussed.

Catástrofe, violência e estado de exceção: memórias de insegurança urbana após o terremoto de 2010 na cidade de Concepción, Chile; Catastrophe, violence and State of Exception: memories of urban insecurity after the Earthquake 2010 in the city of Concepción, Chile

Vera, Andrea Soledad Roca
Fonte: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP Publicador: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP
Tipo: Dissertação de Mestrado Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 13/03/2014 PT
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No Chile, país de terremotos, a surpresa foi total quando multitudinários saques a estabelecimentos comerciais começaram logo depois do megassismo que atingiu, na madrugada de sábado 27 de fevereiro de 2010, Concepción, a terceira maior área metropolitana do país. Organizaram-se nos bairros estratégias de autodefesa por temor aos rumores sobre a chegada de saqueadores. Para se restabelecer a ordem social, foi decretado Estado de Exceção. Este estudo exploratório e qualitativo busca enxergar a relação entre terremoto, violência coletiva e insegurança urbana com base nos depoimentos de homens e mulheres que entrevistamos em Concepción dois anos depois do cataclismo. Inspirados no debate teórico sobre a memória coletiva, analisaremos os silêncios e olvidos que fazem parte dos testemunhos; assim, iremos interrogar o caráter inédito que os entrevistados, mas também acadêmicos e autoridades, outorgaram aos saques pós-terremoto, que, como iremos ver, foram interpretados como sintoma do deterioramento moral da sociedade chilena sob o regime neoliberal. Por intermédio de diferentes registros do passado, buscaremos rastros sobre conflitos sociais e políticos em outros momentos da história telúrica nacional. Sobre os episódios de 2010 em específico...

The influence of rumors in the stock market: a case study with Petrobras

Cruz,Fábio Marques da; Gomes,Maria Yêda Falcão Soares de Filgueiras
Fonte: Pontifícia Universidade Católica de Campinas Publicador: Pontifícia Universidade Católica de Campinas
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: text/html
Publicado em 01/12/2013 EN
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This paper analyzes the influence of rumors on price fluctuations in the Stock Exchange of São Paulo between 2007 and 2011, through a case study with Petrobras, a company whose stock had the largest trading volume within the period. For this purpose we used the historical prices of cash market provided by the stock exchange. The communications in which Petrobras provides clarifications regarding unofficial information disclosed in the press were also collected from the stock exchange website. The analysis of these documents helped to create a diagram to represent the information about the rumors and categorize them by subject. This diagram was applied to a database to store the information collected from the company’s communications. Then this information was retrieved to analyze the influence of rumors on price movements. The results confirm that the company’s responses to rumors influence price fluctuations of its stock. At eagerness for information to dilute uncertainty, investors make decisions based on rumors betting on the credibility of the media that disclose them, even though knowing that the information is not always reliable.

From rumors to genetic isolates

E. Castilla,Eduardo; Schuler-Faccini,Lavinia
Fonte: Sociedade Brasileira de Genética Publicador: Sociedade Brasileira de Genética
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: text/html
Publicado em 01/01/2014 PT
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Here we propose a registration process for population genetic isolates, usually geographic clusters of genetic disorders, based on the systematic search of rumors, defined as any type of account regardless of its reliability. Systematically ascertained rumors are recorded, and validated through a progressive process of pre-established steps. This paper outlines the conceptual basis for this approach and presents the preliminary results from a rumor-based nationwide registry of genetically isolated populations, named CENISO (Censo Nacional de Isolados), operating in Brazil since 2009. During the first four years of its existence (2009-2013), a total of 191 Rumors were registered and validated, resulting in a prevalence rate of one per million inhabitants of Brazil. When the five statutory geographic regions of Brazil were considered, more Rumors were registered for the Northeast (2.11; 1.74-2.54 per 10(6)) than for the remaining four regions, North, Center-West, Southeast, and South, which did not differ among themselves. About half (86/191) of the recorded rumors were proven to be geographic clusters; of these disorders, 58 were autosomal recessive, 17 autosomal dominant, 5 X-linked, 3 multifactorial, and one environmental (thalidomide embryopathy).

Social Processes Affecting the Mnemonic Consequences of Rumors on Children’s Memory

Principe, Gabrielle F.; Daley, Lauren; Kauth, Kyli
Fonte: PubMed Publicador: PubMed
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
EN
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This research examined whether the impact of overheard rumors on children‘s memory for their experiences varies as a function of social processes. The results of two experiments revealed that the very same errant rumor had different consequences for children‘s recollections depending on the degree and type of social interactions they had with peers after exposure to the rumor. In both experiments, 3- to 5-year-olds overheard a false rumor about a recently-experienced event and then were interviewed one week later about the event. In Experiment 1, children were more likely to report experiencing rumored-but-nonoccurring information if they were allowed to interact naturally with peers following exposure to the rumor than if they were prevented from peer exchange. In Experiment 2, exposure to the rumor induced greater memory contamination if it was planted among familiar peers than if it was encountered among strangers.

False Rumors and True Belief: Memory Processes Underlying Children’s Errant Reports of Rumored Events

Principe, Gabrielle F.; Haines, Brooke; Adkins, Amber; Guiliano, Stephanie
Fonte: PubMed Publicador: PubMed
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
EN
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Previous research has shown that overhearing an errant rumor—either from an adult or peers—about an earlier experience can lead children to make detailed false reports. This study investigates the extent to which such accounts are driven by changes in children’s memory representations or merely social demands that encourage the reporting of rumored information. This was accomplished by a) using a warning manipulation that eliminated social pressures to report an earlier-heard rumor and b) examining the qualitative characteristics of children’s false narratives of a rumored-but-nonexperienced event. Findings indicated that overheard rumors can induce sensory and contextual characteristics in memory that can lead children to develop genuine false beliefs in seeing rumored-but-nonexperienced occurrences. Such constructive tendencies were especially likely among 3- and 4-year-olds (relative to 5- and 6-year-olds) and when rumors were picked up from peers during natural social interactions than when they were planted by adults.

Co-occurrence of Victimization from Five Subtypes of Bullying: Physical, Verbal, Social Exclusion, Spreading Rumors, and Cyber

Wang, Jing; Iannotti, Ronald J.; Luk, Jeremy W.; Nansel, Tonja R.
Fonte: Oxford University Press Publicador: Oxford University Press
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
EN
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Objective To examine co-occurrence of five subtypes of peer victimization. Methods Data were obtained from a national sample of 7,475 US adolescents in grades 6 through 10 in the 2005/2006 Health Behavior in School-Aged Children (HBSC) study. Latent class analyses (LCA) were conducted on victimization by physical, verbal, social exclusion, spreading rumors, and cyber bullying. Results Three latent classes were identified, including an all-types victims class (9.7% of males and 6.2% of females), a verbal/relational victims class (28.1% of males and 35.1% of females), and a nonvictim class (62.2% of males and 58.7% of females). Males were more likely to be all-type victims. There was a graded relationship between the three latent classes and level of depression, frequency of medically attended injuries, and medicine use, especially among females. Conclusions  Increased co-occurrence of victimization types put adolescents at greater risks for poorer physical and psychological outcomes.

The Role of Early Maturation, Perceived Popularity, and Rumors in the Emergence of Internalizing Symptoms Among Adolescent Girls

Reynolds, Bridget M.; Juvonen, Jaana
Fonte: Springer US Publicador: Springer US
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
EN
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Despite the widely reported link between early pubertal timing and internalizing symptoms among girls, less is known about the peer reputation of earlier maturing girls. The current study assesses whether early maturation is associated with perceived popularity and/or rumors, and whether these reputational factors help account for earlier maturing girls’ vulnerability to emotional distress. Drawing on three waves of data collected from an ethnically diverse sample of middle school girls (n = 912), hierarchical multiple regression analyses revealed that more advanced development at the start of middle school predicted peer- and teacher-reported popularity as well as increased risk of being targeted for rumors. Mediation analyses suggested that popularity among boys can put earlier developing girls at risk for rumors. Finally, rumors acted as a partial mechanism through which early maturation was associated with subsequent internalizing symptoms. Knowledge of the peer mechanisms putting earlier developing girls at risk for psychosocial maladjustment can inform intervention and prevention efforts aimed at improving adolescent well-being.

From rumors to genetic isolates

Castilla, Eduardo E.; Schuler-Faccini, Lavinia
Fonte: Sociedade Brasileira de Genética Publicador: Sociedade Brasileira de Genética
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
27.76%
Here we propose a registration process for population genetic isolates, usually geographic clusters of genetic disorders, based on the systematic search of rumors, defined as any type of account regardless of its reliability. Systematically ascertained rumors are recorded, and validated through a progressive process of pre-established steps. This paper outlines the conceptual basis for this approach and presents the preliminary results from a rumor-based nationwide registry of genetically isolated populations, named CENISO (Censo Nacional de Isolados), operating in Brazil since 2009. During the first four years of its existence (2009–2013), a total of 191 Rumors were registered and validated, resulting in a prevalence rate of one per million inhabitants of Brazil. When the five statutory geographic regions of Brazil were considered, more Rumors were registered for the Northeast (2.11; 1.74–2.54 per 106) than for the remaining four regions, North, Center-West, Southeast, and South, which did not differ among themselves. About half (86/191) of the recorded rumors were proven to be geographic clusters; of these disorders, 58 were autosomal recessive, 17 autosomal dominant, 5 X-linked, 3 multifactorial, and one environmental (thalidomide embryopathy).

Immunization against the Spread of Rumors in Homogenous Networks

Zhao, Laijun; Wang, Jiajia; Huang, Rongbing
Fonte: Public Library of Science Publicador: Public Library of Science
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em 01/05/2015 EN
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Since most rumors are harmful, how to control the spread of such rumors is important. In this paper, we studied the process of "immunization" against rumors by modeling the process of rumor spreading and changing the termination mechanism for the spread of rumors to make the model more realistic. We derived mean-field equations to describe the dynamics of the rumor spread. By carrying out steady-state analysis, we derived the spreading threshold value that must be exceeded for the rumor to spread. We further discuss a possible strategy for immunization against rumors and obtain an immunization threshold value that represents the minimum level required to stop the rumor from spreading. Numerical simulations revealed that the average degree of the network and parameters of transformation probability significantly influence the spread of rumors. More importantly, the simulations revealed that immunizing a higher proportion of individuals is not necessarily better because of the waste of resources and the generation of unnecessary information. So the optimal immunization rate should be the immunization threshold.

Rumors in Iraq a guide to winning hearts and minds

Kelley, Stephanie R.
Fonte: Monterey California. Naval Postgraduate School Publicador: Monterey California. Naval Postgraduate School
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado
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Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited; This thesis proposes the study of rumor as a guide to the battle for hearts and minds in Iraq. It reviews existing rumor theory to identify how rumors function and what we can learn from them. Rumors often serve as a window into a community, and can provide valuable information for developing a campaign to assess, monitor, and gain the support necessary to defeat insurgents. This thesis employs two distinct typologies to analyze over ten months of rumors in Baghdad, Iraq. The motivation typology provides indications of Iraqi sentiment, and suggests unrelieved anxiety and fear is likely contributing to widespread hostility towards the US-led Coalition. Indications of unrealistic expectations are also evident, potentially contributing to hostility levels as they go unrealized. The subject typology identifies overarching concerns of the Iraqi people, and suggests there are specific fears inhibiting cooperation with US counterinsurgency efforts. This thesis then examines rumor remedies. Because they rely on effective communication skills, American and Arab cultural communication styles are contrasted and integrated into tailored remedies for Iraq. The findings in this thesis could assist Coalition information campaigns by alerting them to existing Iraqi perceptions so they can tailor messages to address significant concerns and fears.

Rumors Denials as Persuasive Messages: Effects of Personal Relevance, Source, and Message Characteristics

Bordia, Prashant; Difonzo, Nicholas; Haines, Robin; Chaseling, Elizabeth
Fonte: Blackwell Publishing Ltd Publicador: Blackwell Publishing Ltd
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
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Denial is a commonly used strategy to rebut a false rumor. However, there is a dearth of empirical research on the effectiveness of denials in combating rumors. Treating denials as persuasive messages, we conducted 3 laboratory-based simulation studies te

Management Are Aliens! Rumors and stress during organizational change

Bordia, Prashant; Jones, Elizabeth; Gallois, Cindy; Callan, Victor; Difonzo, Nicholas
Fonte: Sage Publications Inc Publicador: Sage Publications Inc
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
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Rumors collected from a large public hospital undergoing change were content analyzed, and a typology comprising the following five broad types of change-related rumors was developed: rumors about changes to job and working conditions, nature of organizat

Modeling Rumors: The No Plane Pentagon French Hoax Case

Galam, Serge
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em 25/11/2002
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The recent astonishing wide adhesion of french people to the rumor claiming `No plane did crash on the Pentagon on September the 11", is given a generic explanation in terms of a model of minority opinion spreading. Using a majority rule reaction-diffusion dynamics, a rumor is shown to invade for sure a social group provided it fulfills simultaneously two criteria. First it must initiate with a support beyond some critical threshold which however, turns out to be always very low. Then it has to be consistent with some larger collective social paradigm of the group. Othewise it just dies out. Both conditions were satisfied in the french case with the associated book sold at more than 200 000 copies in just a few days. The rumor was stopped by the firm stand of most newspaper editors stating it is nonsense. Such an incredible social dynamics is shown to result naturally from an open and free public debate among friends and colleagues. Each one searching for the truth sincerely on a free will basis and without individual biases. The polarization process appears also to be very quick in agreement with reality. It is a very strong anti-democratic reversal of opinion although made quite democratically. The model may apply to a large range of rumors.

Els rumors i l’elecció escolar

Marías Molina, Ariadna
Fonte: Universidade Autônoma de Barcelona Publicador: Universidade Autônoma de Barcelona
Tipo: Treball de recerca; info:eu-repo/semantics/bachelorThesis; Text Formato: application/pdf; application/pdf
Publicado em //2015 CAT
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Treball de recerca en què s’explora com afecten els rumors en l’elecció escolar en un context de diversitat cultural. Es basa en una recerca qualitativa realitzada a Rubí, a través de sis entrevistes a famílies de dues escoles del municipi. S’obtenen uns resultat que mostren la presència dels rumors en l’àmbit de l’elecció escolar, amb diferències entre perfils socials, en la importància que es dóna a aquests rumors, i en el pes que tenen en l’actuació de les famílies. I en segon lloc, ens permet identificar la segregació urbana del municipi de Rubí, que es reflecteix en la composició social de les seves escoles. Una segregació que podria veure’s incrementada per les diferents possibilitats de mobilitat entre barris per part dels diferents perfils.

La Credibilitat dels rumors i les notícies recerca a propòsit de la Segona Guerra Mundial /

Argemí i Ballbè, Marc
Fonte: [Bellaterra] : Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Publicador: [Bellaterra] : Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona,
Tipo: Tesis i dissertacions electròniques; info:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesis Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em //2012 CAT; CAT
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Investigación que une tres conceptos: credibilidad, rumor y noticia. Es una tesis, sobre todo, que trata del rumor y el periodismo, y de la credibilidad de los periodistas. La estructura del trabajo distingue entre tres bloques. En la primera parte, se han analizado dos casos reales de intentos de construcción de mensajes creíbles llevados a cabo por un mismo responsable (el Reino Unido) durante el mismo período de tiempo: la fábrica clandestina de rumores puesta en marcha por el Political Warfare Executive, y los servicios europeos de la BBC. Con métodos contrapuestos, las dos experiencias intentan generar mensajes creíbles. El primero era un equipo de periodistas dedicado a inventarse rumores para fortalecer la moral propia y debilitar la del enemigo. Los segundos, la BBC, pusieron en marcha una gran operación radiofónica, sin precedentes, para informar desde Londres en todos los idiomas del continente. Unos creaban rumores falsos con apariencia de noticia, otros creaban noticias que pudieran batir los rumores y la propaganda anti-británica. En la segunda parte de la tesis, se hace un tercer estudio de un caso real, pero que es al mismo tiempo una construcción de un marco teórico. Los retos psicológicos y de opinión pública que planteó la entrada de Estados Unidos en la Segunda Guerra Mundial suscitaron la implicación personal y profesional de los campus universitarios más afamados del continente. Este trabajo hace un recorrido por esta generación de académicos norteamericanos que...

Cancer rumor effects on sense making

Robinson, Nicole M.
Fonte: Rochester Instituto de Tecnologia Publicador: Rochester Instituto de Tecnologia
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
27.76%
A cancer rumor is collective sense making in response to uncertainty or threat regarding a cancer diagnosis. This study explored the types of cancer rumors in circulation, how these rumors spread, why people believed them, and how people made sense of these rumors in order to cope. Web survey responses from 188 participants found that both negative and positive rumors were spread. These rumors were believed due to perceived source credibility and plausibility. While participants held more faith in medical sources, 71 percent changed their behavior after hearing a rumor from a non-medical person. Results suggested that rumor participation aided coping with the disease and its many possible outcomes.

Studio 86: The Power of rumors; Studio 86

University News
Fonte: Rochester Institute of Technology Publicador: Rochester Institute of Technology
Tipo: Podcast Formato: 1; .m4a; .m4a; 00:15:00
EN_US
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Studio 86 presents in-depth discussions with RIT newsmakers. In this episode, RIT psychology professor Nicholas DiFonzo, author of "The Watercooler Effect," discusses rumors with Susan Gawlowicz and Studio 86 host Mike Saffran.; RIT University News - Studio 86 podcast.

Information Seeking Behavior in Collective Surges: Testing Alternative Collective Behavior Formulations

Aguirre, Benigno E.
Fonte: Disaster Research Center Publicador: Disaster Research Center
Tipo: Outros Formato: 1049365 bytes; application/pdf
EN_US
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This paper tests a set of predictions regarding information seeking behavior in collective surges derived from models of rumors by Shibutani, Knof, and McPhail. Data for the analysis comes from a random sample of 1,042 households in Memphis, Tennessee surveyed by the Disaster Research Center prior to Iben Browning's December 3rd 1990 prediction of an imminent massive earthquake in the New Madrid fault zone. Result suppport McPhail's hypothesis that the network of relationships available to people is an important determinant of their information seeking behavior in situations of collective preoccupations as well as Shibutani's prediction of a positive association between the use of formal and informal sources of information. The results fail to support Knopf's prediction that information seeking is impacted by pre-existing generalized beliefs. Attention to the logistics of accessibility and microparticipation is a useful supplementation to the emphasis on the use of the mass media for understanding informal information seeking activities during collective preoccupations.; National Science Foundation

O precário equilíbrio entre improvisação e regras: reflexões sobre a cultura política da Guiné-Bissau

Trajano Filho, Wilson
Fonte: Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Filosofia, Letras e Ciências Humanas Publicador: Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Filosofia, Letras e Ciências Humanas
Tipo: info:eu-repo/semantics/article; info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion; ; ; Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 01/01/2008 POR
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A tensão entre o balizamento das regras sociais e a criatividade da improvisação numa situação social caracterizada por instabilidade política extrema, estagnação econômica e crise generalizada das instituições sociais é o tema desse trabalho. A situação etnográfica estudada é a da Guiné-Bissau em 2007. O foco são os esquemas de percepção da experiência cotidiana. Os dados trabalhados são majoritariamente rumores que realizam a crônica da vida social. A questão central sobre a qual reflito é o que acontece a partir do momento em que o precário equilíbrio entre improvisação e regras é perturbado dramaticamente, quando, por exemplo, a improvisação toma o lugar das regras. O que sucede à sociedade e a seus membros quando essa tensão constitutiva da dinâmica social se dissolve no ar?; This paper deals with the tension that exists between social rules that orient people's conduct and creative improvisation in a social situation characterized by extreme political instability, economic stagnation and generalized crisis of social institutions. The ethnographic situation under scrutiny is a small West African country named Guinea-Bissau. The analysis focuses on the way people frame their everyday social experiences. The data analyzed come mainly from the rumors that chronicle social life in Bissau. The central issue that I examine is what happens when the precarious equilibrium between social rules and improvisation is dramatically disturbed and when improvisation replaces rules. What happens to society and to its members when this tension...