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British Polls and the 1950 General Election

ELDERSVELD, SAMUEL J.
Fonte: Oxford University Press Publicador: Oxford University Press
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: text/html
EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.21%
British public opinion polling organizations enjoyed a varying but generally considerable degree of success in predicting the outcome of the British general election of 1950. This success is all the more striking in view of the extremely close balance between the Labour and Conservative parties. Liberal candidacies in 475 of the 625 constituencies also posed a formidable predictive problem. Professor Eldersveld here reviews the record and methodology of the British polls during the 1950 election and offers an interpretation of the meaning and implications of this election for British politics.

A study of the impact of the internet, Malaysiakini.com and democratising forces on the Malaysian general election 2008.

Chinnasamy, Saraswathy
Fonte: Universidade de Adelaide Publicador: Universidade de Adelaide
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado
Publicado em //2014
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.25%
This thesis argues that the role played by the independent news portal (INP), Malaysiakini.com has expanded since 2007 in Malaysia’s political culture, enriching the country’s traditional public sphere with new democratic features. It has helped to speed up democratic action by enabling oppositional viewpoints, and has shifted the traditional media landscape towards greater diversity, and the possibility of changing the government in power. The thesis uses Malaysia’s 2008 General Election (GE2008) as the case study to illustrate the power of Malaysiakini.com, particularly at election times. Malaysia’s GE2008 almost caused the defeat of the Barisan Nasional (BN), which had been in power for fifty one years. With a less than two-thirds majority in the Federal Parliament, it lost five out of the thirteen states to the Opposition, Pakatan Rakyat (PR). It will be shown that the Internet’s impact in Malaysia is partly caused by the raised expectations of the ‘Internet Election’ era, where electoral conduct in some countries during the period of 2004-2010 was impacted by greater Internet access. As the national elections in the US (2004, 2008), UK (2010), and Singapore (2006) were called ‘Internet Elections’, Malaysian commentators used the same term about GE2008. This claim is discussed in this thesis through comparison. The thesis also argues that the popular success of Malaysiakini.com led mainstream media journalists to rethink news-gathering practices and that the competitive nature of...

The Greek General Election of 2009: PASOK - The Third Generation

DINAS, Elias
Fonte: Instituto Universitário Europeu Publicador: Instituto Universitário Europeu
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.14%
Although Greece is not a Constitutional Monarchy, historians of the future would probably benefit from the terminology used in this type of state in order to describe Greek politics of the last half century: ‘After the 2009 Parliamentary election’, the text would go, ‘held on 4 October, only two years after the previous general election, Papandreou the Third, after his grandfather in the mid-1940s and the mid-1960s and his father in the 1980s and 1990s, became the new Prime Minister of the country. He achieved this by defeating his main opponent, Karamanlis the Second, who, like his uncle in the mid-1970s, had won two successive electoral battles, in 2004 and 2007, before experiencing this utterly bitter defeat in 2009. After Karamanlis’ resignation, four candidates for the leadership of the party emerged, one of whom was Dora Bakoyanni, the daughter of Kostantinos Mitsotakis, Prime Minister of Greece from 1990 until 1993. Her much younger brother, Kyriakos Mitsotakis, was also re-elected as an MP of the party.’ Trying to sketch the factors that led to the final outcome, which resulted in the Panhellenic Socialist Movement’s (Panellinio Sosialistiko Kinima, PASOK) return to power, it is essential to account for the first and probably most intriguing puzzle of this election...

Effects of Multiple Races and Header Highlighting on Undervotes in the 2006 Sarasota General Election: A Usability Study and Cognitive Modeling Assessment

Greene, Kristen K.
Fonte: Universidade Rice Publicador: Universidade Rice
ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.21%
Large-scale voting usability problems have changed the outcomes of several recent elections. The 2006 election in Sarasota County, Florida was one such incident, where the number of votes lost was nearly 50 times greater than the margin of victory for the US Representative race. Multiple hypotheses were proposed to explain this incident, with prevailing theories focused on malicious software, touchscreen miscalibration or poor ballot design, Study I aimed to empirically determine whether Sarasota voters unintentionally skipped the critical US Representative race due to poor ballot design. The Sarasota ballot was replicated initially, then header highlighting and number of races presented on the first screen were manipulated. While the presentation of multiple races had a significant effect on undervotes in the US Representative race, header highlighting did not. Nearly 20% of all voters (27 of 137) skipped the race their first time on that screen, an even greater undervote rate than that originally seen in Sarasota. In conjunction with other research, Study I results strongly suggests that the 2006 Sarasota election was almost certainly a human factors problem. A cognitive model of human voters was developed based on Study I data. Model predictions were then compared with behavioral data from Study 2...

Looking back at Malaysia's GE2008: An internet election and its democratic aftermath

Chinnasamy, S.; Griffiths, O.
Fonte: The International Academic Forum Publicador: The International Academic Forum
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em //2013 EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.35%
Prior to 2008, alternative news sources were already established and exerted influence on the political process. They broadened the variety of topics reported, increased informed participation in political culture and presented political alternatives. However, after Malaysia’s 12th general election in 2008, the Internet emerged as a major new player in the socio-political landscape. The impact of the Internet, in particular the influence of the Independent News Portal (INP), malaysiakini.com, was seen as being partly responsible for changes in Malaysia’s political landscape. Thereafter, the Internet’s role as ‘an agent of political change’ became the subject of much debate and controversy in Malaysia. The question of the Internet’s influence is especially relevant given that alternative media sources were predicted to exert an even greater impact on the 2013 general election (GE2013). This article explores the influence of alternative news sources and examines the concept of the ‘Internet election’ with reference to two international examples. It contextualises public debate about the issues and controversies of the 2008 election coverage, and its aftermath, through the perspective of local media practitioners and election observers. The findings are revealing of the distinctive impact of Malaysia’s independent online news sources. The article argues that the democratisation of information has the potential to encourage new forms of democratic participation and to have a significant impact on political culture.; http://iafor.org/iafor/journal-of-media-communication-film-volume-1-issue-1/; Sara Chinnasamy and Mary Griffiths

The great debate: how did the televised leaders' debate affect voters' opinions? A study of voter rationality, the Australian Federal Election in 2004

Kobayashi, Memiko
Fonte: Universidade Nacional da Austrália Publicador: Universidade Nacional da Austrália
Tipo: Relatório
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.17%
Televised leaders' debates have been recognised as an important part of the election campaign process since the first US televised presidential debate took place in 1960. Since then, they have played a significant role in the election process in different countries, because they give voters a chance to compare each candidate's attitude toward the same issues at the same time. On the evening of Sunday 12 September 2004, the fifth Australian televised debate between Prime Minister John Howard and opposition leader Mark Latham was broadcast on the Nine Network. It began with moderator's opening address 'it 's your choice, your decision on who will govern Australia- John Howard or Mark Latham? To help you make that decision, 60 Minutes brings the two leaders together for their only face-to-face encounter as they debate live and uninterrupted by commercials ... ' But did the Great Debate really help audience make the decision which leader they want to vote for? How did the debate affect people's opinions about national issues, the leaders' images and their policies? This research paper focuses on the impact of the 2004 Great Debate, by examining the data collected by ANU Internet Opinion Polls which were conducted in 2004 for a month before the general election. The study investigates four key dependent variables...

140 Characters to Victory?: Using Twitter to Predict the UK 2015 General Election

Burnap, Pete; Gibson, Rachel; Sloan, Luke; Southern, Rosalynd; Williams, Matthew
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em 06/05/2015
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.25%
The election forecasting 'industry' is a growing one, both in the volume of scholars producing forecasts and methodological diversity. In recent years a new approach has emerged that relies on social media and particularly Twitter data to predict election outcomes. While some studies have shown the method to hold a surprising degree of accuracy there has been criticism over the lack of consistency and clarity in the methods used, along with inevitable problems of population bias. In this paper we set out a 'baseline' model for using Twitter as an election forecasting tool that we then apply to the UK 2015 General Election. The paper builds on existing literature by extending the use of Twitter as a forecasting tool to the UK context and identifying its limitations, particularly with regard to its application in a multi-party environment with geographic concentration of power for minor parties.

London’s choice of mayor will give a tantalising hint of which party will be favourites to win the next general election

Travers, Tony
Fonte: Blog post from London School of Economics & Political Science Publicador: Blog post from London School of Economics & Political Science
Tipo: Website; NonPeerReviewed Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 13/03/2012 EN; EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.21%
Kicking off our London Mayoral Election 2012 coverage, Tony Travers looks at the state of the race for City Hall. As the Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats offer up ‘repeat’ candidates, he wonders what this election might tell us about the state of the parties and their prospects for the next general election.

The Conservatives’ failure to prioritise gender equality could cost them dear at the general election

Annesley, Claire; Gains, Francesca
Fonte: Democratic Audit UK Publicador: Democratic Audit UK
Tipo: Website; NonPeerReviewed Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 13/10/2014 EN; EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.08%
One of the features of British politics since the last General Election has been the widening of the gender gap in terms of voting intentions, with women more likely to back Labour. Here, the Conservatives have a blind spot, according to Claire Annesley and Francesca Gains, with their failure to support gender equality in a number of ways holding the potential to cost them dear electorally.

The British general election of 2010 and the advent of coalition government

Dunleavy, Patrick
Fonte: Manchester University Press Publicador: Manchester University Press
Tipo: Book Section; PeerReviewed Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em /05/2012 EN; EN
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46.25%
In many respects the May 2010 general election in Britain seems to be one of those cases where an election is lost, yet without any clear winner emerging. Yet it was also a contest that led to a historic outcome, a further decline in support for the top two parties and the advent of the first peacetime coalition government in the UK since the 1920s. I begin by considering the shape of the basic results, and then look at how voting behaviour changed in response to changing party strategies. Section 3 examines the operation of the electoral system and the longer term significance of the 2010 election for long-run trends towards multi-partism in British politics. Section 4 examines the transition to a coalition government between the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats, lead by David Cameron and Nick Clegg, and the basic parliamentary arithmetic and electoral situation that it confronts. The final section considers the longer term potential for change in British politics that have opened up from the election and its aftermath, especially for another wave of constitutional reform.

Fixed term parliaments are a mirage – it’s all downhill from now to a June 2014 general election

Dunleavy, Patrick
Fonte: Blog post from London School of Economics & Political Science Publicador: Blog post from London School of Economics & Political Science
Tipo: Website; NonPeerReviewed Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 20/02/2012 EN; EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.21%
All coalitions unzip from the end, unless the date of their termination remains uncertain. But with last year’s Fixed Term Parliaments Act the Liberal Democrats cling to the illusion that they have statutory protection against any Conservative decision to ‘cut and run’ for an early general election, before the spring of 2015. Not so, argues Patrick Dunleavy. Britain’s next general election will happen in June 2014, catching the coalition’s junior partners on the hop.

The 2011 Welsh General Election: an analysis of the latest staging post in the maturing of Welsh Politics

Cole, Michael
Fonte: Democratic Audit UK Publicador: Democratic Audit UK
Tipo: Website; NonPeerReviewed Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 20/02/2014 EN; EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.08%
The May 2011 Welsh General Election represented an important staging post in the development of a mature democracy as it followed immediately from the referendum result which gave the Assembly full-primary legislative powers. Here Michael Cole draws on an article written with Professor Laura McAllister, recently published by Parliamentary Affairs, to discuss the campaign, its results and the operation of the electoral system.

In the 2010 election, the online space was seen as a battleground to be fought over. In future elections it could be used as a method for better understanding the public

Anstead, Nick; O’Loughlin, Ben
Fonte: Blog post from London School of Economics & Political Science Publicador: Blog post from London School of Economics & Political Science
Tipo: Website; NonPeerReviewed Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 19/09/2011 EN; EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.21%
While journalists speculated about whether the 2010 UK General Election was the country’s ”first Internet election”, semantic polling (using algorithms to read social media data) was under-examined. Nick Anstead and Ben O’Loughlin explore the role of semantic polling in the 2010 election and argue that it will become even more important in the future.

General election night live blog 6 May 2010

Gilson, Christopher
Fonte: Blog post from London School of Economics & Political Science Publicador: Blog post from London School of Economics & Political Science
Tipo: Website; NonPeerReviewed Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 06/05/2010 EN; EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.08%
Chris Gilson takes you through the General Election night 2010.

Hawai’i’s stormy primary election may be followed by an equally eventful general election this November

Belt, Todd L.
Fonte: Blog post from London School of Economics & Political Science Publicador: Blog post from London School of Economics & Political Science
Tipo: Website; NonPeerReviewed Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 22/09/2014 EN; EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.18%
Last month saw hard fought Democratic primary elections in Hawai’i against the backdrop of a destructive hurricane which disenfranchised two important election precincts. Todd L. Belt writes that Hawai’i’s Lieutenant Governor, Brian Schatz was able to beat Representative Collen Hanabusa by a narrow margin partly because of his more muted campaigning after the hurricanes in communities that value humility, and that incumbent Governor, Neil Abercrombie, was similarly defeated because of his unpopular decisions and combative style. With lava flows now affecting the same precincts, the state’s general and gubernatorial elections in November are likely to be just as eventful as its primary.

The Tea Party’s presence in primaries benefits the general election result in the Republican Party’s favor

Jewitt, Caitlin E.; Treul, Sarah A.
Fonte: Blog post from London School of Economics & Political Science Publicador: Blog post from London School of Economics & Political Science
Tipo: Website; NonPeerReviewed Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 03/09/2014 EN; EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.32%
With the rise in prominence and influence of conservative politicians such as Senators Ted Cruz and Rand Paul in recent years, the role of the Tea Party in U.S. politics has become more and more important. In new research, Caitlin E. Jewitt and Sarah A. Treul examine how the presence of a Tea Party candidate – a divisive election – affects general election results compared to elections that are simply competitive. They find that competitive primaries increase turnout rates, but do little for a party’s election result. They also find that while the presence of a Tea Party candidate in the general election means that the Republican Party performs 1.7 percent better than expected, when there had been a competitive primary, there is no additional effect.

Social media analysis and public opinion: the 2010 UK General Election

Anstead, Nick; O'Loughlin, Ben
Fonte: Wiley on behalf of the International Communication Association Publicador: Wiley on behalf of the International Communication Association
Tipo: Article; PeerReviewed Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em /03/2015 EN; EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.08%
Social media monitoring in politics can be understood by situating it in theories of public opinion. The multimethod study we present here indicates how social media monitoring allow for analysis of social dynamics through which opinions form and shift. Analysis of media coverage from the 2010 UK General Election demonstrates that social media are now being equated with public opinion by political journalists. We use interviews with pollsters, social media researchers and journalists to examine the perceived link between social media and public opinion. In light of competing understandings these interviews reveal, we argue for a broadening of the definition of public opinion to include its social dimension.

The rise of multi-party politics heightens the chances of a perverse and unrepresentative outcome in next year’s General Election

Wyburn-Powell, Alun
Fonte: Democratic Audit UK Publicador: Democratic Audit UK
Tipo: Website; NonPeerReviewed Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 11/06/2014 EN; EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.08%
The UK has seen elections three times since the First World War which have produced outcomes in which one party has won more seats, but finished second in vote share. Alun Wyburn-Powell argues that Britain’s First Past the Post electoral system could be set to produce a similar outcome at next year’s General Election, with the increasing drift towards a multi-party democracy and the weakness of the two main parties threatening to produce the most perverse outcome yet.

Political communications in the Icelandic general election campaign of 1987.

Arnason, Gudmundar Runar
Fonte: London School of Economics and Political Science Thesis Publicador: London School of Economics and Political Science Thesis
Tipo: Thesis; NonPeerReviewed Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em //1991 EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.25%
The thesis is a study of political communications in a general election campaign in Iceland in 1987. The theoretical background is the so-called agenda-setting approach to communication. A multimethodological approach was used: first, a content analysis was applied to printed pamphlets published by the political parties, election broadcasts on TV, daily newspapers, television news and current affairs programmes over a period of eight weeks; second, a three wave panel survey of a sample of 1500 voters, twice before the election and once immediately after it; third, a survey of news-reporters' attitudes towards media and their job, organized and run by students at the University of Iceland; and fourth, a qualitative study of practices and atmosphere inside the State's TV newsroom some days before the election. The thesis is divided into four main parts, which are further divided into sub-sections. The first part deals with theoretical considerations, offers an outline of Icelandic history and social reality and discusses the methodologies employed. Part two is based on the panel survey, a survey of news-reporters and a qualitative study inside the state's TV newsroom. Part two considers the uses of media in the campaign and attitudes towards them. It reports on news values and practices as found in the survey of news-reporters and the qualitative survey inside the TV newsroom. Part three is based on content analysis and the survey. It discusses the "three agendas": the party agenda...

The fork in the road? British reactions to the election of an apartheid government in South Africa, May 1948

Waddy,Nicholas L.
Fonte: Historia Publicador: Historia
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: text/html
Publicado em 01/05/2010 EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.17%
This article examines in depth the reaction of the British government and the British press to the election of a National Party, apartheid government in South Africa in May 1948. The conventional view -that the 1948 election represented a "turning point" in South African history and Anglo-South African relations -is repudiated. On the contrary, it appears that the British, although they almost uniformly admired Field Marshal Smuts and distrusted Afrikaner Nationalists, felt that the results of the 1948 election were not indicative of a fundamental shift. The view was widespread in Britain and South Africa that Smuts and the United Party would soon be returned to power, and apartheid would prove to be impractical and politically embarrassing to the Nationalists. Only after Smuts's death in 1950, and after the further consolidation of National Party political control in South Africa, did the British begin to accept that the re-establishment of a mildly progressive, anglophile regime in South Africa was unlikely to occur.