We analyzed dengue incidence in the period between October 2006-July 2007 of 146 cities around the country were Larval Index Rapid Assay (LIRA) surveillance was carried out in October 2006. Of these, we chosen 61 cities that had 500 or more cases reported during this period. We calculated the incidence coefficient, the force of infection (») and the basic reproduction number (R0) of dengue in those 61 cities and correlated those variables with the LIRA. We concluded that » and R0 are more associated with the number of cases than LIRA. In addition, the average R0 for the 2006/2007 dengue season was almost as high as that calculated for the 2001/2002 season, the worst in Brazilian history.; CNPq; FAPESP; FMUSP - HC
Dengue is considered one of the most important vector-borne infection, affecting almost half of the world population with 50 to 100 million cases every year. In this paper, we present one of the simplest models that can encapsulate all the important variables related to vector control of dengue fever. The model considers the human population, the adult mosquito population and the population of immature stages, which includes eggs, larvae and pupae. The model also considers the vertical transmission of dengue in the mosquitoes and the seasonal variation in the mosquito population. From this basic model describing the dynamics of dengue infection, we deduce thresholds for avoiding the introduction of the disease and for the elimination of the disease. In particular, we deduce a Basic Reproduction Number for dengue that includes parameters related to the immature stages of the mosquito. By neglecting seasonal variation, we calculate the equilibrium values of the model’s variables. We also present a sensitivity analysis of the impact of four vector-control strategies on the Basic Reproduction Number, on the Force of Infection and on the human prevalence of dengue. Each of the strategies was studied separately from the others. The analysis presented allows us to conclude that of the available vector control strategies...
This study aimed to identify the transmission pattern of hepatitis A (HA) infection based on a primary dataset
from the Brazilian National Hepatitis Survey in a pre-vaccination context. The national survey conducted in urban areas
disclosed two epidemiological scenarios with low and intermediate HA endemicity.
A catalytic model of HA transmission was built based on a national seroprevalence survey (2005 to 2009). The
seroprevalence data from 7,062 individuals aged 5–69 years from all the Brazilian macro-regions were included. We built up
three models: fully homogeneous mixing model, with constant contact pattern; the highly assortative model and the highly
assortative model with the additional component accounting for contacts with infected food/water. Curves of prevalence,
force of infection (FOI) and the number of new infections with 99% confidence intervals (CIs) were compared between the
intermediate (North, Northeast, Midwest and Federal District) and low (South and Southeast) endemicity areas. A contour
plot was also constructed.
The anti- HAV IgG seroprevalence was 68.8% (95% CI, 64.8%–72.5%) and 33.7% (95% CI, 32.4%–35.1%) for the
intermediate and low endemicity areas, respectively...
Schneider, M. C.; SantosBurgoa, C.; Aron, J.; Munoz, B.; RuizVelazco, S.; Uieda, W.
Fonte: Amer Soc Trop Med & HygienePublicador: Amer Soc Trop Med & Hygiene
Tipo: Artigo de Revista CientíficaFormato: 680-684
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Human rabies tansmitted by bats has acquired greater epidemiologic relevance in various Latin American countries, just when cases transmitted by dogs have decreased. Concern has been heightened by reports of increased rates of bats biting humans in villlages in the Amazonian region of Brazil. The aim of the present work was to estimate the potential force of infection (per capita rate at which susceptible individuals acquire infection) of human rabies transmitted by the common vampire bat if the rabies virus were to be introduced to a colony of bats close to a village with a high rate of human bites. The potential force of infection could be then used to anticipate the size of a rabies outbreak in control programs. We present an estimator of potential incidence, adapted from models for malaria. To obtain some of the parameters for the equation, a cross-sectional survey was conducted in Mina Nova, a village of gold prospectors in the Amazonian region of Brazil with high rates of bates biting humans. Bats were captured near dwellings and sent to the Rabies Diagnostic Laboratory at the Center for Control of Zoonoses (São Paulo, Brazil) to be examined. To estimate the force of infection, a hypothetical rabies outbreak among bats was simulated using the actual data obtained in the study area. of 129 people interviewed...
A clinical-serological follow-up was carried out in a canine population in endemic foci of Leishmania braziliensis spread in northwestern Argentina. Each dog was studied in at least two visits, 309±15 days (X±SE) apart. Some initially healthy dogs (n=52) developed seroconversion or lesions. The clinical evolution of the disease in dogs resembles in many aspects the human disease. Similarities include the long duration of most ulcers with occasional healing or appearance of new ones and the late appearance of erosive snout lesions in some animals. Yearly incidence rates of 22.7% for seroconversion and of 13.5% for disease were calculated as indicators of the force of infection by this parasite upon the canine population.
We analyzed dengue incidence in the period between October 2006-July 2007 of 146 cities around the country were Larval Index Rapid Assay (LIRA) surveillance was carried out in October 2006. Of these, we chosen 61 cities that had 500 or more cases reported during this period. We calculated the incidence coefficient, the force of infection (») and the basic reproduction number (R0) of dengue in those 61 cities and correlated those variables with the LIRA. We concluded that » and R0 are more associated with the number of cases than LIRA. In addition, the average R0 for the 2006/2007 dengue season was almost as high as that calculated for the 2001/2002 season, the worst in Brazilian history.
Epidemiological parameters, such as age-dependent force of infection and average age at infection () were estimated for rubella, varicella, rotavirus A, respiratory syncytial virus, hepatitis A and parvovirus B19 infections for a non-immunized Brazilian community, using the same sera samples. The for the aforementioned diseases were 8.45 years (yr) [95% CI: (7.23, 9.48) yr], 3.90 yr [95% CI: (3.51, 4.28) yr], 1.03 yr [95% CI: (0.96, 1.09) yr], 1.58 yr [95% CI: (1.39, 1.79) yr], 7.17 yr [95% CI: (6.48, 7.80) yr] and 7.43 yr [95% CI: (5.68, 9.59) yr], respectively. The differences between average ages could be explained by factors such as differences in the effectiveness of the protection conferred to newborns by maternally derived antibodies, competition between virus species and age-dependent host susceptibility. Our seroprevalence data may illustrate a case of the above-mentioned mechanisms working together within the same population.
A postal survey of British sheep farmers provided information on the proportion of farms that experienced their first case of scrapie in each year between 1962 and 1998. We found no evidence of a large increase in the proportion of scrapie-affected farms prior to, during or following the epidemic of BSE in British cattle. After correcting for between-farm heterogeneity in the probability of acquiring scrapie, we estimated the yearly between-flock force of infection since 1962. The current force of infection is estimated at approximately 0.0045 per farm per year and combined with a simple model of scrapie spread provides an estimate of the average duration of a scrapie outbreak on an individual farm. Considering all farms, the average outbreak lasts for five years, but if only those farms that have cases in animals born on the farm are considered, it lasts 15 years. We use these parameter estimates to compare the proportion of farms with scrapie in time periods of different lengths. In the survey, 2.7% of farms had a case in 1998. The 5.3% of farms reporting having a case between 1993 and 1997 is consistent with the hypothesis that the scrapie force of infection remained constant over this period.
A simple force-of-infection model for onchocerciasis has been developed for a study of the age-specific epidemiological trends during a period of vector control in the Onchocerciasis Control Programme in the Volta River basin area (OCP). The most important factors included in the model are the longevity of an infection, the aspect of super-infection, age-specific exposure, and the intensity of transmission during the pre-control period. The aim of the study was to determine the most appropriate statistics for the epidemiological evaluation in the OCP. There was generally good agreement between the epidemiological trends, predicted by the model, and the observed trends in the prevalence and mean load of microfilariae in skin snips taken from a cohort population from 23 villages in an area with 8 years of successful vector control in the OCP. It is concluded that the epidemiological trends during the control period are not uniform but depend on the initial age and the initial endemicity level of the population. The epidemiological indices for cohorts of children, born before the start of control, will not show a decrease during the first 8 years of interruption of transmission. The prevalence is too insensitive to be useful for the evaluation in hyperendemic villages during most of the control period. The most sensitive and meaningful statistic for a comparative analysis and for the assessment of epidemiological changes is the geometric mean microfilarial load in a cohort of adults. This index...
The influence of host diversity on multi-host pathogen transmission and persistence can be confounded by the large number of species and biological interactions that can characterize many transmission systems. For vector-borne pathogens, the composition of host communities has been hypothesized to affect transmission; however, the specific characteristics of host communities that affect transmission remain largely unknown. We tested the hypothesis that vector host use and force of infection (i.e., the summed number of infectious mosquitoes resulting from feeding upon each vertebrate host within a community of hosts), and not simply host diversity or richness, determine local infection rates of West Nile virus (WNV) in mosquito vectors. In suburban Chicago, Illinois, USA, we estimated community force of infection for West Nile virus using data on Culex pipiens mosquito host selection and WNV vertebrate reservoir competence for each host species in multiple residential and semi-natural study sites. We found host community force of infection interacted with avian diversity to influence WNV infection in Culex mosquitoes across the study area. Two avian species, the American robin (Turdus migratorius) and the house sparrow (Passer domesticus)...
Genotyping Plasmodium falciparum parasites in longitudinal studies provides a robust approach to estimating force of infection (FOI) in the presence of superinfections. The molecular parameter molFOI, defined as the number of new P. falciparum clones acquired over time, describes basic malaria epidemiology and is suitable for measuring outcomes of interventions. This study was designed to test whether molFOI influenced the risk of clinical malaria episodes and how far molFOI reflected environmental determinants of transmission, such as seasonality and small-scale geographical variation or effects of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs). Two hundred sixty-four children 1–3 y of age from Papua New Guinea were followed over 16 mo. Individual parasite clones were tracked longitudinally by genotyping. On average, children acquired 5.9 (SD 9.6) new P. falciparum infections per child per y. molFOI showed a pronounced seasonality, was strongly reduced in children using ITNs (incidence rate ratio, 0.49; 95% confidence interval, [0.38, 0.61]), increased with age, and significantly varied within villages (P = 0.001). The acquisition of new parasite clones was the major factor determining the risk of clinical illness (incidence rate ratio, 2.12; 95% confidence interval...
Dengue is the most important vector-borne viral disease worldwide and a major cause of childhood fever burden in Sri Lanka, which has experienced a number of large epidemics in the past decade. Despite this, data on the burden and transmission of dengue virus in the Indian Subcontinent are lacking. As part of a longitudinal fever surveillance study, we conducted a dengue seroprevalence survey among children aged <12 years in Colombo, Sri Lanka. We used a catalytic model to estimate the risk of primary infection among seronegative children. Over 50% of children had IgG antibodies to dengue virus and seroprevalence increased with age. The risk of primary infection was 14.1% per year (95% CI: 12.7%–15.6%), indicating that among initially seronegative children, approximately 1 in 7 experience their first infection within 12 months. There was weak evidence to suggest that the force of primary infection could be lower for children aged 6 years and above. We estimate that there are approximately 30 primary dengue infections among children <12 years in the community for every case notified to national surveillance, although this ratio is closer to 100∶1 among infants. Dengue represents a considerable infection burden among children in urban Sri Lanka...
This article aims to develop a probability-based model involving the use of direct likelihood formulation and generalised linear modelling (GLM) approaches useful in estimating important disease parameters from longitudinal or repeated measurement data. The current application is based on infection with respiratory syncytial virus. The force of infection and the recovery rate or per capita loss of infection are the parameters of interest. However, because of the limitation arising from the study design and subsequently, the data generated only the force of infection is estimable. The problem of dealing with time-varying disease parameters is also addressed in the article by fitting piecewise constant parameters over time via the GLM approach. The current model formulation is based on that published in White LJ, Buttery J, Cooper B, Nokes DJ and Medley GF. Rotavirus within day care centres in Oxfordshire, UK: characterization of partial immunity. Journal of Royal Society Interface 2008; 5: 1481–1490 with an application to rotavirus transmission and immunity.
Characterizing the force of infection (FOI) is an essential part of planning cost effective control strategies for zoonotic diseases. Echinococcus multilocularis is the causative agent of alveolar echinococcosis in humans, a serious disease with a high fatality rate and an increasing global spread. Red foxes are high prevalence hosts of E. multilocularis. Through a mathematical modelling approach, using field data collected from in and around the city of Zurich, Switzerland, we find compelling evidence that the FOI is periodic with highly variable amplitude, and, while this amplitude is similar across habitat types, the mean FOI differs markedly between urban and periurban habitats suggesting a considerable risk differential. The FOI, during an annual cycle, ranges from (0.1,0.8) insults (95% CI) in urban habitat in the summer to (9.4, 9.7) (95% CI) in periurban (rural) habitat in winter. Such large temporal and spatial variations in FOI suggest that control strategies are optimal when tailored to local FOI dynamics.
Using mathematical models to extend knowledge of pathogen transmission and recommend optimized control efforts is dependent on the accuracy of model parameters. The rate at which susceptible individuals become infected [the force of infection (FoI)] is one of the most important parameters, but due to data constraints it is often incorrectly assumed to be constant over time. Using a bespoke method for a 12-y longitudinal dataset of serotype-specific dengue virus (DENV) infections, we estimated time-varying, serotype-specific FoIs for all four DENV serotypes. The FoI varied markedly in time, which implies that DENV transmission dynamics are complex and are best summarized using time-dependent transmission parameters. Our results provide more accurate measures of virus transmission dynamics and a basis for improving selection of control and disease prevention strategies.
Understanding age-specific differences in infection rates can be important in predicting the magnitude of and mortality in outbreaks and targeting age groups for vaccination programmes. Standard methods to estimate age-specific rates assume that the age-specific force of infection is constant in time. However, this assumption may easily be violated in the face of a highly variable outbreak history, as recently observed for acute immunizing infections like measles, in strongly seasonal settings. Here we investigate the biases that result from ignoring such fluctuations in incidence and present a correction based on the epidemic history. We apply the method to data from a measles outbreak in Niamey, Niger and show that, despite a bimodal age distribution of cases, the estimated age-specific force of infection is unimodal and concentrated in young children (< 5 years) consistent with previous analyses of age-specific rates in the region.
A dimensional analysis of the classical equations related to the dynamics of vector-borne infections is presented. It is provided a formal notation to complete the expressions for the Ross' threshold theorem, the Macdonald's basic reproduction "rate" and sporozoite "rate", Garret-Jones' vectorial capacity and Dietz-Molineaux-Thomas' force of infection. The analysis was intended to provide a formal notation that complete the classical equations proposed by these authors.; European Union ; European Union; LIM01 HCFMUSP; LIM01 HCFMUSP; CNPq; CNPq
A dimensional analysis of the classical equations related to the dynamics of vector-borne infections is presented. It is provided a formal notation to complete the expressions for the Ross' Threshold Theorem, the Macdonald's basic reproduction "rate" and sporozoite "rate", Garret-Jones' vectorial capacity and Dietz-Molineaux-Thomas' force of infection. The analysis was intended to provide a formal notation that complete the classical equations proposed by these authors.
In this paper, we analyze the temporal evolution of the age-dependent force
of infection and incidence of rubella, after the introduction of a very
specific vaccination programme in a previously nonvaccinated population where
rubella was in endemic steady state. We deduce an integral equation for the
age-dependent force of infection, which depends on a number of parameters that
can be estimated from the force of infection in steady state prior to the
vaccination program. We present the results of our simulations, which are
compared with observed data. We also examine the influence of contact patterns
among members of a community on the age-dependent intensity of transmission of
rubella and on the results of vaccination strategies. As an example of the
theory proposed, we calculate the effects of vaccination strategies for four
communities from Caieiras (Brazil), Huixquilucan (Mexico), Finland and the
United Kingdom. The results for each community differ considerably according to
the distinct intensity and pattern of transmission in the absence of
vaccination. We conclude that this simple vaccination program is not very
efficient (very slow) in the goal of eradicating the disease. This gives
support to a mixed strategy, proposed by Massad et al....
Fonte: World Health OrganizationPublicador: World Health Organization
Tipo: Artigo de Revista CientíficaFormato: text/html
Publicado em 01/03/2008EN
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OBJECTIVE: To reconstruct the historical changes in force of dengue infection in Singapore, and to better understand the relationship between control of Aedes mosquitoes and incidence of classic dengue fever. METHODS: Seroprevalence data were abstracted from surveys performed in Singapore from 1982 to 2002. These data were used to develop two mathematical models of age seroprevalence. In the first model, force of infection was allowed to vary independently each year, while in the second it was described by a polynomial function. Model-predicted temporal trends were analysed using linear regression. Time series techniques were employed to investigate periodicity in predicted forces of infection, dengue fever incidence and mosquito breeding. FINDINGS: Force of infection estimates showed a significant downward trend from 1966, when vector control was instigated. Force of infection estimates from both models reproduced significant increases in the percentage and average age of the population susceptible to dengue infections. Importantly, the year-on-year model independently predicted a five to six year periodicity that was also displayed by clinical incidence but absent from the Aedes household index. CONCLUSION: We propose that the rise in disease incidence was due in part to a vector-control-driven reduction in herd immunity in older age groups that are more susceptible to developing clinical dengue.