Página 1 dos resultados de 764 itens digitais encontrados em 0.008 segundos

Tayloring Brazil : a system dynamics model for monetary policy feedback

Neugebauer, Felix Sebastian
Fonte: Fundação Getúlio Vargas Publicador: Fundação Getúlio Vargas
Tipo: Dissertação
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.1%
The thesis introduces a system dynamics Taylor rule model of new Keynesian nature for monetary policy feedback in Brazil. The nonlinear Taylor rule for interest rate changes con-siders gaps and dynamics of GDP growth and inflation. The model closely tracks the 2004 to 2011 business cycle and outlines the endogenous feedback between the real interest rate, GDP growth and inflation. The model identifies a high degree of endogenous feedback for monetary policy and inflation, while GDP growth remains highly exposed to exogenous eco-nomic conditions. The results also show that the majority of the monetary policy moves during the sample period was related to GDP growth, despite higher coefficients of inflation parameters in the Taylor rule. This observation challenges the intuition that inflation target-ing leads to a dominance of monetary policy moves with respect to inflation. Furthermore, the results suggest that backward looking price-setting with respect to GDP growth has been the dominant driver of inflation. Moreover, simulation exercises highlight the effects of the new BCB strategy initiated in August 2011 and also consider recession and inflation avoid-ance versions of the Taylor rule. In methodological terms, the Taylor rule model highlights the advantages of system dynamics with respect to nonlinear policies and to the stock-and-flow approach. In total...

Collective efficiency strategies : a regional development policy contribution for competitiveness enhancement

Baleiras, Rui Nuno
Fonte: NIPE Publicador: NIPE
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento
Publicado em /09/2011 ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.17%
This is an article on policy instrument design wholly embodied in the state of the art endogenous regional development theory. The family of Collective Efficiency Strategies (CES) was originally con-ceived in Portugal during the 2005/2009 legislative term and is very much replicable in other geogra-phies and socio-economic environments, in emerging as well as in developed territories. They matter to deliver competitiveness and jobs by boosting business links among partnership members. Firms are indispensable to operate these networks but many other private, social and public agents whose action helps to internalise agglomeration and network externalities are also welcome. Four types of CES were launched, each aiming to address specific development bottlenecks: Growth and Competitiveness Poles, Other Clusters, Urban Regeneration and Development Actions and Programmes for the Economic Enhancement of Endogenous Resources. Taken together, they provide policy action to stimulate trade-oriented knowledge provision, innovation in goods and services or processes, urban economic drivers and sustainable and durable networks of economic activity in low-density territories. Before presenting the CES, the paper provides the relevant theoretical background. A synthesis of current endogenous regional development models paves the way to introduce the key concept of collective efficiency. Some data on the application country helps to motivate the discussion.; Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT); COMPETE; QREN; União Europeia (FUndo Europeu de Desenvolvimento Regional)

Endogenous markups and fiscal policy

Costa, Luís F.
Fonte: ISEG – Departamento de Economia Publicador: ISEG – Departamento de Economia
Tipo: Outros
Publicado em //2001 ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.08%
This note analyses a simple imperfectly competitive general equilibrium model where the entry mechanism generates an endogenous markup. In this second-best world fiscal policy is more effective than in Walrasian or in fixed-markup monopolistic competition models, as it produces efficiency gains through entry.

Innovation and environmental policy: Clean vs. dirty technical change

Cunha-e-Sá, Maria A.; Leitão, Alexandra; Reis, Ana B.
Fonte: Nova SBE Publicador: Nova SBE
Tipo: Outros
Publicado em /03/2010 ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.05%
We study a two sector endogenous growth model with environmental quality with two goods and two factors of production, one clean and one dirty. Technological change creates clean or dirty innovations. We compare the laissez-faire equilibrium and the social optimum and study first- and second-best policies. Optimal policy encourages research toward clean technologies. In a second-best world, we claim that a portfolio that includes a tax on the polluting good combined with optimal innovation subsidy policies is less costly than increasing the price of the polluting good alone. Moreover, a discriminating innovation subsidy policy is preferable to a non-discriminating one.

A Control Function Approach to Estimating Dynamic Probit Models with Endogenous Regressors, with an Application to the Study of Poverty Persistence in China

Giles, John; Murtazashvili, Irina
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.17%
This paper proposes a parametric approach to estimating a dynamic binary response panel data model that allows for endogenous contemporaneous regressors. This approach is of particular value for settings in which one wants to estimate the effects of an endogenous treatment on a binary outcome. The model is next used to examine the impact of rural-urban migration on the likelihood that households in rural China fall below the poverty line. In this application, it is shown that migration is important for reducing the likelihood that poor households remain in poverty and that non-poor households fall into poverty. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that failure to control for unobserved heterogeneity would lead the researcher to underestimate the impact of migrant labor markets on reducing the probability of falling into poverty.

Reform and Backlash to Reform : Economic Effects of Ageing and Retirement Policy

Jensen, Svend E. Hougaard; Jorgensen, Ole Hagen
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.11%
Using a stochastic general equilibrium model with overlapping generations, this paper studies (i) the effects on both extensive and intensive labor supply responses to changes in fertility rates, and (ii) the potential of a retirement reform to mitigate the effects of fertility changes on labor supply. In order to neutralize the effects on effective labor supply of a fertility decline, a retirement reform, designed to increase labor supply at the extensive margin, is found to simultaneously reduce labor supply at the intensive margin. This backlash to retirement reform requires the statutory retirement age to increase more than proportionally to fertility changes in order to compensate for endogenous responses of the intensity of labor supply. The robustness of this result is checked against alternative model specifications and calibrations relevant to an economic region such as Europe.

Fiscal Policy, Public Expenditure Composition, and Growth : Theory and Empirics

Semmler, Willi; Greiner, Alfred; Diallo, Bobo; Rezai, Armon; Rajaram, Anand
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.03%
This paper responds to the development policy debate involving the World Bank and the IMF on the use of fiscal policy not only for economic stabilization but also to promote economic growth and increase per capita income. A key issue in this debate relates to the effect of the composition of public expenditure on economic growth. Policy makers and some researchers have argued that expenditure on growth-enhancing functions could enhance future revenue and justify the provision of "fiscal space" in the budget. But there are no simple ways to identify the growth-maximizing composition of public expenditure. The current paper lays out a research strategy to explore the effects of fiscal policy, including the composition of public expenditure, on economic growth, using a time series approach. Based on the modeling strategy of Greiner, Semmler and Gong (2005) we develop a general model that features a government that undertakes public expenditure on (a) education and health facilities which enhance human capital...

Growth and Competitiveness as Factors of Eurozone External Imbalances : Evidence and Policy Implications

Diaz Sanchez, Jose Luis; Varoudakis, Aristomene
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.12%
The paper assesses the contribution of key factors associated with external imbalances in the Eurozone through the estimation of a panel-data vector autoregressive model over 1975-2011. Growth fluctuations, initially associated with demand booms triggered by unusually low interest rates and later with demand contractions resulting from the crisis and policy adjustments, have been key drivers of current account fluctuations. Changes in competitiveness, measured by real exchange rates or unit labor costs, have played a less important role. Demand shocks have contributed more to current account balance dynamics in the Eurozone periphery than in the core, whereas competitiveness has been a less prominent factor in the periphery but relatively more important in the core. Changes in competitiveness are positively associated with changes in growth. Preventing imbalances from building up in a context of growing financial integration and easy finance warrants enhanced mutual surveillance of fiscal imbalances, but also better regulation of credit markets to prevent excess leverage and concentration of lending in investments prone to speculative bubbles. Coordination of fiscal policy across the Eurozone would facilitate the management of external imbalances without placing an often unwarranted burden on fiscal tightening in countries with sound fiscal positions affected by credit booms. The policies of internal devaluation implemented in the periphery...

Estimating the causal effects of policy information on voter turnout: An Internet based randomized field experiment in Japan

Horiuchi, Yusaku; Imai, Kosuke; Taniguchi, Naoko
Fonte: Universidade Nacional da Austrália Publicador: Universidade Nacional da Austrália
Tipo: Working/Technical Paper Formato: 254334 bytes; 352 bytes; application/pdf; application/octet-stream
EN_AU
Relevância na Pesquisa
45.96%
Political scientists since Anthony Downs (1957) have hypothesized that more policy information leads to a higher voter turnout. To empirically test this hypothesis, we conducted an Internet-based randomized field experiment during Japan’s 2004 Upper House election. Japan’s 2004 election is ideal for testing our hypothesis because political parties prepared formal “manifestos” that include proposals for major policy issues. We find that voters are less likely to abstain when they receive policy information about both ruling and opposition parties through their official party websites. The information effects are larger among those voters who were planning to vote but were undecided about which party to vote for. Our findings also shed light on the role of the Internet as an important source of information for voters. Methodologically, this paper illustrates how to design and analyze Internet-based randomized field experiments, which are becoming increasingly common in the social sciences. Our experimental approach avoids the problem of endogenous information acquisition, which is inherent when using observational studies to estimate the causal effects of information on voting behavior. Furthermore, we employ a randomized block design to ensure efficient randomization...

Towards a Theory of Firm Entry and Stabilization Policy

BERGIN, Paul; CORSETTI, Giancarlo
Fonte: European University Institute Publicador: European University Institute
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento Formato: 271018 bytes; application/pdf; digital
EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.1%
This paper studies the role of stabilization policy in a model where firm entry responds to shocks and uncertainty. We evaluate stabilization policy in the context of a simple analytically solvable sticky price model, where firms have to prepay a fixed cost of entry. The presence of endogenous entry can alter the dynamic response to shocks, leading to greater persistence in the effects of monetary and real shocks. Entry affects welfare, depending on the love of variety in consumption and investment, as well as its implications for market competitiveness. In this context, monetary policy has an additional role in regulating the optimal number of entrants, as well as the optimal level of production at each firm. We find that the same monetary policy rule optimal for regulating the scale of production in familiar sticky price models without entry, also generates the amount of (endogenous) entry corresponding to a flex-price equilibrium.

R&D Policy in Economies with Endogenous Growth and Non-Renewable Resources

Agnani, Betty; Guti??rrez, Mar??a Jos??; Iza, Amaia
Fonte: Universidad de Granada. Departamento de Teor??a e Historia Econ??mica Publicador: Universidad de Granada. Departamento de Teor??a e Historia Econ??mica
Tipo: Relatório
ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.16%
The aim of this paper is to analyze how active R&D policies affect the growth rate of an economy with endogenous growth and non-renewable resources. We know from Scholz and Ziemens (1999) and Groth (2006) that in infinitely lived agents (ILA) economies, any active R&D policy increases the growth rate of the economy. To see if this result also appears in economies with finite lifetime agents, we developed an endogenous growth overlapping generations (OLG) economy ?? la Diamond which uses non-renewable resources as essential inputs in final good???s production. We show analytically that a sufficient condition guaranteeing that an active R&D policy increases the growth rate of the economy actually implies a reduction of the use of the non-renewable resources. Numerically we show that in economies with low intertemporal elasticity of substitution (IES), active R&D policies lead the economy to increase the depletion of non-renewable resources. Nevertheless, we find that active R&D policies always imply increases in the endogenous growth rate, in both scenarios. Furthermore, when the IES coefficient is lower (greater) than one, active R&D policies affect the growth rate of the economy in the ILA more (less) than in OLG economies.

Endogenous policy leads to incomplete risk sharing

Celentani, Marco; Conde-Ruiz, J. Ignacio; Desmet, Klaus
Fonte: Elsevier Publicador: Elsevier
Tipo: info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersion; info:eu-repo/semantics/article Formato: application/pdf; text/plain
Publicado em /07/2004 ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.15%
We analyze risk sharing and endogenous fiscal spending in a two-region model with sequentially complete markets. Fiscal policy is determined by majority voting. When policy setting is decentralized, regions choose fiscal spending in an attempt to manipulate security prices. This leads to incomplete risk sharing, despite the existence of complete markets and the absence of aggregate risk. When a fiscal union centralizes fiscal policy, complete risk sharing ensues. If regions are relatively homogeneous, median income residents of both regions prefer the fiscal union. If they are relatively heterogeneous, the median resident of the rich region prefers the decentralized setting.

Endogenous Mechanisms and Nash Equilibrium in Competitive Contracting

Page, Frank H. Jr.; Monteiro, Paulo K.
Fonte: Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research Publicador: Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento Formato: 317713 bytes; application/pdf
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.06%
We model strategic competition in a market with asymmetric information as a noncooperative game in which each firm competes for the business of a buyer of unknown type by offering the buyer a catalog of products and prices. The timing in our model is Stackelberg: in the first stage, given the distribution of buyer types known to all firms and the deducible, type-dependent best responses of the agent, firms simultaneously and noncooperatively choose their catalog offers. In the second stage the buyer, knowing his type, chooses a single firm and product-price pair from that firm's catalog. By backward induction, this Stackelberg game with asymmetric information reduces to a game over catalogs with payoff indeterminacies. In particular, due to ties within catalogs and/or across catalogs, corresponding to any catalog profile offered by firms there may be multiple possible expected firm payoffs, all consistent with the rational optimizing behavior of the agent for each of his types. The resolution of these indeterminacies depends on the tie-breaking mechanism which emerges in the market. Because each tie-breaking mechanism induces a particular game over catalogs, a reasonable candidate would be a tie-breaking mechanism which supports a Nash equilibrium in the corresponding catalog game. We call such a mechanism an endogenous Nash mechanism. The fundamental question we address in this paper is...

Anatomizing incomplete-markets small open economies: policy trade-offs and equilibrium determinacy

Alonso-Carrera, Jaime; Kam, Timothy
Fonte: Cambridge University Press Publicador: Cambridge University Press
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.08%
We propose a simple incomplete-markets small-open-economy model that is amenable to analytical dissection of its policy-relevant mechanisms. In contrast to its complete-markets limit, the equilibrium real exchange rate is irreducible from the incomplete-markets equilibrium. Market incompleteness exacerbates the domestic-inflation and output-gap monetary-policy trade-off in two ways: its steepness and its resulting endogenous cost-push to the trade-off. The latter depends on an equilibrium combination of structural shocks and on agents' beliefs of future events. Thus, in comparison to its complete-markets and closed-economy limits, standard Taylor-type rules are less capable of inducing determinate rational expectations equilibrium in our environment. Despite the larger policy trade-off under incomplete markets, simple policies that also respond to exchange-rate growth are able to manage expectations that drive the endogenous cost-push term. However, policies that respond directly to expectations may turn out to exacerbate the cost-push trade-off further, and thus, to be more likely to fuel self-fulfilling multiple or unstable equilibria.

Relative Returns to Policy Reform : Evidence from Controlled Cross-Country Regressions

de Castro, Alexandre Samy; Goldin, Ian; Pereira da Silva, Luiz A.
Fonte: World Bank Publicador: World Bank
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.05%
The authors aim at contributing to understand the dispersion of returns from policy reforms using cross-country regressions. The authors compare the "before reform" with "after reform" GDP growth outcome of countries that undertook import-liberalization and fiscal policy reforms. They survey a large sample (about 54) of developing countries over the period 1980-99. The benefits of openness to trade and fiscal prudence have been extensively identified in the growth literature, but the evidence from simple cross-section analysis can sometimes be inconclusive and remains vulnerable to criticism on estimation techniques, such as identification, endogeneity, multi-colinearity, and the quality of the data. The authors use a different analytical framework that establishes additional controls. First, they construct a counterfactual control group. These are countries that-under specific thresholds-did not introduce policy reforms under scrutiny. Second, the authors also try to use the most appropriate variable of policy reform...

Fiscal Sustainability in Burundi : Baseline Projections, Stochastic Simulations, and Policy Scenarios

Kida, Mizuho
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.15%
This paper analyzes Burundi's medium-term fiscal sustainability in the light of the country's vulnerability to various shocks. Earlier studies have highlighted the country's vulnerability to exogenous shocks related to commodity exports, rain-fed agriculture, and volatile foreign aid. Internally, uncertainty about the implementation of the government's fiscal reforms is a key risk. The earlier studies, however, did not quantify the size and impact of the risks on the country's fiscal sustainability. Drawing initially on the standard inter-temporal sustainability framework, the baseline analysis shows that Burundi's ongoing fiscal policy strategy is not sustainable, even with a gradually improving external environment and relatively strong growth. Stochastic simulations show that adverse shocks to rainfall or coffee prices could increase the country's debt-to-gross domestic product ratio by 5 to 7 percentage points above the projected baseline ratio. Aid shocks could have an even larger impact but the estimates are less statistically reliable because of the short time series and because historical volatility in part reflects endogenous shocks (such as reform implementation) as well as exogenous shocks (donors' behavior). The policy scenario analysis shows that future fiscal sustainability will hinge on the government's ability to stick to its plans to broaden the tax base...

Measuring Monetary Policy in Open Economies

Cerdeiro, Diego A.
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.14%
The paper extends Bernanke and Mihov's [6] closed-economy strategy for identification of monetary policy shocks to open-economy settings, accounting for the simultaneity between interest-rate and exchange-rate innovations. The methodology allows a separate treatment of two distinct monetary policy shocks, one that operates through open market operations, and another one that takes place through interventions in the foreign exchange market. Implementation of this strategy to the case of Argentina provides the stylized facts necessary to choose among competing theoretical models of this economy. In addition to studying the effects of monetary policy innovations, the present study sheds light on the endogenous component of monetary policy. In this regard, the paper finds that, notwithstanding the relative stability of the exchange rate and the accumulation of large amounts of international reserves, the central bank in Argentina has been far from absorbing balance of payments shocks in a currency-board fashion. The growing level of international reserves can be rationalized...

Brazilian endogenous trade policy: 1991-1998

Silva Junior,Geraldo Edmundo
Fonte: Instituto de Economa da Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro Publicador: Instituto de Economa da Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: text/html
Publicado em 01/12/2011 EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.05%
This paper presents an empirical contribution to the identification of Grossman-Helpman's "Protection for Sale" parameters model for Brazilian trade policy, based on robust estimations techniques, which means the use of instrumental variables in a 2SLS for Generalized Method of Moments and Limited Information Maximum Likelihood methods for weak instruments with corrections of size tests, in order to correct endogenous bias. The results suggest that the political economy of Brazil's trade policy is an outlier in international comparisons, as the identification of structural parameters for Protection for Sale model shows a low part of population represented by an interest group and low weight of the welfare function.

Research Policy and Endogenous Growth

Morales, María Fuensanta
Fonte: Conselho Superior de Investigações Científicas Publicador: Conselho Superior de Investigações Científicas
Tipo: Documento de trabajo
ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.08%
This paper studies the effects of different types of research policy on economic growth. We find that while tax incentives to private research, public funding of private projects, and basic research performed at public institutions have unambiguously positive effects on economic growth, performing applied research at public institutions could have negative growth effects. This is due to the large crowding out of private research caused by public R\&D when it competes with private firms in the "patent race". Concerning the effects of these policies on welfare, it is found that research policy can either improve or reduce consumer welfare depending on the characteristics of the policy and that an excessively high research subsidy will reduce it.

The Political Economy of Policy Reform: The Case of the Dominican Republic

Andújar-Scheker,Julio G.
Fonte: UNAM, Facultad de Economía Publicador: UNAM, Facultad de Economía
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: text/html
Publicado em 01/06/2008 EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
45.92%
This paper provides a theoretical framework for the analysis of the political economy of policy reform in developing countries with presidential regimes. Drawing from the Dominican Republic's reform experience in the mid-nineties, I build a model aimed to replicate interactions between political agents throughout the discussion process of a policy reform in the Congress of a developing country. A reform-committed president is the agenda-setter and decides between total liberalization and a protectionist status quo. If the president decides to liberalize, he submits to an opposition-led Congress a tariff-reform. Congress' decision on approving or rejecting the proposal depends on the contribution of rival lobbies, which plays a non-cooperative game within the overall game. The model shows how lobby's behavior depends on the decision made by its rival and how the equilibrium of the lobbying game ultimately determines the president's choice. In addition, it explains why in developing countries with a large authoritarian history, reforms are constantly delayed.