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Investment and uncertainty in machinery and real estate

Pereira,Rodrigo Mendes
Fonte: Fundação Getúlio Vargas Publicador: Fundação Getúlio Vargas
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: text/html
Publicado em 01/09/2008 EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
45.99%
Investment is usually treated as an homogeneous variable in the literature. The wide differences in the nature of inputs used in investment projects may lead to interesting insights that are not captured in the conventional approach. In this paper I decompose investment in machinery and industrial real estate and examine the impact of economic uncertainty on each of these components. Using panel data estimation methods for the Brazilian industry, I found that uncertainty exerts a harmful effect on both types of investment. However, the effect is much more intense with machines, which possibly is a consequence of their high reversibility costs.

Innocent Bystanders : How Foreign Uncertainty Shocks Harm Exporters

Taglioni, Daria; Zavacka, Veronika
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.38%
The failure of trade economists to anticipate the extreme drop in trade post Lehman Brothers bankruptcy suggests that the behavior of trade in exceptional circumstances may still be poorly understood. This paper explores whether uncertainty shocks have explanatory power for movements in trade. VAR estimations on United States data suggest that domestic uncertainty is a strong predictor of movements in imports, but has little effect on exports. Guided by these results, the paper estimates a bilateral model with focus on the impact of importer uncertainty on foreign suppliers. It finds that there is a strong negative relationship between uncertainty and trade and that this relationship is non-linear. Uncertainty matters most when its levels are exceptionally high. The paper does not find evidence of learning from past turmoils, suggesting that prior experience with major uncertainty shocks does not reduce the effect on trade. In line with the expectations, the negative effect of uncertainty shocks on trade is higher for trade relationships more intensive in durable goods. Surprisingly...

Has Economic Policy Uncertainty Slowed Down the World Economy?

Bloom, Nicholas
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.33%
This study details the effects of policy conflicts and fiscal crises in the United States and Europe. The impact of economic policy on the economy is measured to generate a proxy for policy uncertainty using three groups of observable measures and combining them into one index of Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU). This is achieved by (1) compiling newspaper coverage of policy-related economic uncertainty in ten major US newspapers; (2) depicting accurate reflections of federal tax code provisions which are set to expire in a few years according to the Congressional Budget Office list; and (3) aggregating and exanimating disagreements among economic forecasters in the Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s Survey of Professional Forecasters. Looking ahead, the authors conclude that economic policy uncertainty is the new normal in the United States, Europe and in OECD countries as well.

Zimbabwe Public Expenditure Notes : Managing Government Wage Bill for Sustained Recovery

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.08%
The Government of Zimbabwe (GOZ) faces difficult choices in managing the size of its civil service wage bill. The Government understands the need to watch the escalating wage bill carefully and put in place a strategy to steer it to a sustainable level as early as possible. Historical and international comparisons suggest that an overall wage bill of around 10 percent of GDP should be the medium-term target. This note illustrates that Zimbabwe could take immediate steps in 2010 and 2011 that will put it on the path of a sustainable level of wage bill in the medium-term. The focus of efforts to contain the wage bill should be on short-term measures because designing and implementing a medium-term approach to wage bill management would be too challenging in view of prevailing economic uncertainty and complex political reality. The note covers the staff employed by the Central Government, including uniformed services and staff employed by the Grant-in-Aided (GIA) institutions. The staff employed by local governments and public enterprises are excluded because direct transfers from the central budget to local government and public enterprises are rather small. (annex A has an outline of the institutional aspects of civil service in Zimbabwe). Given the paucity of information...

Finding gaps on techno-economic assessment on wave energy converters : path towards commercialization; Análisis técnico-económico de los convertidores de energía undimotriz : trayectoria hacia la comercialización

Andrés Gutiérrez, Adrián David de
Fonte: Universidade de Cantabria Publicador: Universidade de Cantabria
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado
ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
45.93%
ABSTRACT: Although wave energy has proved to be feasible, the prototypes are on the testing phase and no technology has been successfully confirmed to be competitive yet. Therefore, a gap on the techno-economic analysis of wave energy converters has been identified. Hence, this thesis attempts to look at the techno-economic issues related to wave energy conversion. Firstly, due to the lack of long-term power production data for wave energy converter a computationally efficient methodology aiming to obtain the long-term power production series has been developed. Secondly, the influence of met-ocean conditions on the design/operation process of a converter has been analyzed. The latest failures of some actual prototypes show a lack of the understanding of the way the met-ocean conditions influence the design/operation process of a wave-energy converter. In this chapter, the design phase of a generic wave energy converter is analyzed from the location targeting perspective. Secondly, the Operation and Maintenance (O&M) parameters are analyzed on a global basis, in order to find the balance between resource and accessibility. Lastly, an analysis of the current economics of wave energy is performed. The effect of the uncertainties on met-ocean conditions on the finance of a particular wave energy project is further analysed.; RESUMEN: Aunque la energía de las olas ha demostrado ser factible...

Endogenous capacities and price competition: the role of demand uncertainty

Frutos, María Ángeles de; Fabra, Natalia
Fonte: Centre for Economic Policy Research Publicador: Centre for Economic Policy Research
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em /02/2007 ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.02%
This paper analyzes a model of capacity choice followed by price competition under demand uncertainty. Under various assumptions regarding the nature and timing of demand realizations, we obtain general predictions concerning the role of demand uncertainty on equilibrium outcomes. We show that it reduces the multiplicity of equilibria, it may rule out the existence of symmetric equilibria, and it leads to endogenous capacity asymmetries even though firms are ex-ante symmetric. Furthermore, as compared to the certainty equivalent game, demand uncertainty reduces prices and increases consumer surplus, but it also decreases total welfare because of the emergence of idle capacity. By relying on the analysis of firms' reaction functions as well as on the theory of submodular games, we are able to show that a subgame perfect equilibrium always exists and to fully characterize it.

Shifting boundaries of fertility change in Southwestern Nigeria

Renne, Elisha P
Fonte: Health Transition Centre, National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, The Australian National University Publicador: Health Transition Centre, National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, The Australian National University
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: 78975 bytes; application/pdf
EN_AU
Relevância na Pesquisa
45.98%
Anthropologists and demographers rely on distinctive methodologies and forms of evidence even while they share a common interest in explaining fertility change. This paper proposes a cultural anthropological approach that focuses on the process whereby meanings associated with practices and things are reinterpreted over time. Using the image of shifting boundaries of kinship relations, it examines changing interpretations of three fundamental aspects of social life—family land, marriage, and foster parenthood—in the Ekiti area of Southwestern Nigeria which suggest an attenuation of the mutual obligations of extended kin. While these reinterpretations have moral associations that legitimate practices supporting fertility decline, political and economic uncertainty may counter this process.; no

Oil Price Volatility, Economic Growth and the Hedging Role of Renewable Energy

Rentschler, Jun E.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.25%
This paper investigates the adverse effects of oil price volatility on economic activity and the extent to which countries can hedge against such effects by using renewable energy. By considering the Realized Volatility of oil prices, rather than following the standard approach of considering oil price shocks in levels, the effects of factor price uncertainty on economic activity are analyzed. Sample countries represent developed and developing, oil importing and exporting and service/industry-based economies (United States, Japan, Germany, South Korea, India, and Malaysia) and thus complement the standard literature's analysis of Western OECD countries. In a vector auto-regressive setting, Granger causality tests, impulse response functions, and variance decompositions show that oil price volatility has more-adverse effects in all sample countries than oil price shocks alone can explain. The paper finds that the sensitivity to oil price volatility varies widely across countries and discusses various factors which may determine the level of sensitivity (such as sectoral composition and the energy mix). This implies that the standard approach of solely considering net oil importer-exporter status is not sufficient. Simulations of volatility shocks in hypothetical energy mixes (with increased renewable shares) illustrate the potential economic benefits resulting from efforts to disconnect the macroeconomy from volatile commodity markets. It is concluded that expanding renewable energy can in principle reduce an economy's vulnerability to oil price volatility...

Determinants of Remittances : Recent Evidence Using Data on Internal Migrants in Vietnam

Niimi, Yoko; Pham, Thai Hung; Reilly, Barry
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.16%
This paper examines the determinants of remittance behavior for Vietnam using data from the 2004 Vietnam Migration Survey on internal migrants. It considers how, among other things, the vulnerability of a migrant's life at the destination, their link to relatives back home, and the time spent at the destination affect remittances. The paper finds that migrants act as risk-averse economic agents and send remittances back to the household of origin as part of an insurance exercise in the face of economic uncertainty. Remittances are also found to be driven by a migrant's labor market earnings level. The paper highlights the important role of remittances in providing an effective means of risk-coping and mutual support within the family.

Incertidumbre socio-económica y actitudes hacia la inmigración en Europa

Martin, Antonio; Molina Romo, Óscar; Meardi, Guglielmo
Fonte: Universidade Autônoma de Barcelona Publicador: Universidade Autônoma de Barcelona
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em //2013 SPA
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.08%
La actual crisis económica ha comportado un deterioro del mercado de trabajo en muchos países europeos, lo que ha estimulado la extensión de actitudes anti-inmigrantes entre la población. Estas actitudes anti-inmigratorias se localizan fundamentalmente en los segmentos bajos del mercado de trabajo, aquellos de baja cualificación y de bajos salarios. En este artículo exploramos las actitudes de los ciudadanos europeos hacia los trabajadores inmigrantes. En particular tratamos de analizar que papel juega la incertidumbre socioeconómica en la conformación de las actitudes. Para ello comparamos los datos de las encuestas de los años 2002, 2008 y 2010 proporcionados por la Encuesta Social Europea para 17 países. Los resultados ponen de relieve la existencia de un cierto cambio de las actitudes entre ambos periodos. Las actitudes hacia la inmigración están condicionadas por tres tipos de variables: socio-económicas, ideológico-políticas y contextuales. El análisis de regresión logística pone de relieve el fuerte papel que juega la ideología izquierda versus derecha como predictor de las actitudes. Finalmente, el análisis de correspondencias múltiples nos ha permitido clasificar a los países estudiados según sus actitudes hacia la inmigración.; The recent economic crisis has brought an unprecedented deterioration in labour market conditions in many European countries. This may have provided new stimulus for the extension of anti-immigrant attitudes amongst population...

Uncertainty and leveraged Lucas Trees: the cross section of equilibrium volatility risk premia

Vedolin, Andrea
Fonte: Department of Finance, The London School of Economics and Political Science Publicador: Department of Finance, The London School of Economics and Political Science
Tipo: Monograph; NonPeerReviewed Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em /11/2012 EN; EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.23%
Volatility risk premia compensate agents for holding assets whose payoffs correlate with times of high return variation. This paper takes a structural approach to explain the cross-section of volatility risk premia of stocks using a Lucas orchard with heterogeneous beliefs, stochastic macro-economic uncertainty, and default risk. I study two manifestations of uncertainty, namely (i) agents’ disagreement and (ii) time-varying volatility of fundamental growth rates. The paper shows that while the former source of risk accounts for the level of the risk premia, the latter mainly affects the higher order moments of the risk premium distribution. Together with uncertainty, default risk associated with levered trees implies a non-monotonic equilibrium link between stock returns and volatility which allows for positive or negative risk premia. Calibrating the economy, I show that the model accounts for predictability of excess stock returns and corporate credit spreads. I construct volatility risk premia from option and stock prices and document that in the time-series, volatility risk premia of individual stocks can be positive or negative, and switch sign rather often. In the cross-section, they are only weakly related to traditional risk factors. I then test the model predictions and find that empirical proxies for investors’ uncertainty about expected growth rates and macro-economic uncertainty are priced risk factors that convey information over and above those contained in other standard factors to explain these risk premia. In line with the model predictions...

Consumption smoothing and the welfare cost of uncertainty

Alem, Yonas; Colmer, Jonathan
Fonte: Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics and Political Science Publicador: Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics and Political Science
Tipo: Monograph; NonPeerReviewed Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em /08/2015 EN; EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.18%
When agents are unable to smooth consumption and have distorted beliefs about the likelihood of future income realisations, uncertainty about future states of the world has a direct effect on individual welfare. However, separating the effects of uncertainty from realised events and identifying the welfare effects of uncertainty both present a number of empirical challenges. Combining individual-level panel data from rural and urban Ethiopia with high-resolution meteorological data, we estimate the empirical relevance of uncertainty on objective consumption and subjective well-being. While negative income shocks affect both objective consumption measures and subjective well-being, greater income uncertainty only has an affect on subjective well-being. A one standard deviation change in income uncertainty is equivalent to a one standard deviation change in realised consumption. These results indicate that the welfare gains from further consumption smoothing are substantially greater than estimates based solely on consumption fluctuations.

Measuring economic policy uncertainty

Baker, Scott R.; Bloom, Nicholas; Davis, Steven J.
Fonte: Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics and Political Science Publicador: Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics and Political Science
Tipo: Monograph; NonPeerReviewed Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em /10/2015 EN; EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.27%
We develop a new index of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) based on newspaper coverage frequency. Several types of evidence – including human readings of 12,000 newspaper articles – indicate that our index proxies for movements in policy-related economic uncertainty. Our US index spikes near tight presidential elections, Gulf Wars I and II, the 9/11 attacks, the failure of Lehman Brothers, the 2011 debt-ceiling dispute and other major battles over fiscal policy. Using firm-level data, we find that policy uncertainty raises stock price volatility and reduces investment and employment in policy-sensitive sectors like defense, healthcare, and infrastructure construction. At the macro level, policy uncertainty innovations foreshadow declines in investment, output, and employment in the United States and, in a panel VAR setting, for 12 major economies. Extending our US index back to 1900, EPU rose dramatically in the 1930s (from late 1931) and has drifted upwards since the 1960s.

Uncertainty and the dynamics of R&D

Bloom, Nick
Fonte: Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics and Political Science Publicador: Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics and Political Science
Tipo: Monograph; NonPeerReviewed Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em /05/2007 EN; EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.23%
Uncertainty varies strongly over time, rising by 50% to 100% in recessions and by up to 200% after major economic and political shocks. This paper shows that higher uncertainty reduces the responsiveness of R&D to changes in business conditions - a “caution-effect” - making it more persistent over time. Thus, uncertainty will play a critical role in shaping the dynamics of R&D through the business cycle, and its response to technology policy. I also show that if firms are increasing their level of R&D then the effect of uncertainty will be negative, while if firms are reducing R&D then the effect of uncertainty will be positive.

The impact of uncertainty shocks: firm level estimation and a 9/11 simulation

Bloom, Nick
Fonte: Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics and Political Science Publicador: Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics and Political Science
Tipo: Monograph; NonPeerReviewed Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em /03/2006 EN; EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.14%
Uncertainty appears to vary strongly over time, temporarily rising by up to 200% around major shocks like the Cuban Missile crisis, the assassination of JFK and 9/11. This paper offers the first structural framework to analyze uncertainty shocks. I build a model with a time varying second moment, which is numerically solved and estimated using firm level data. The parameterized model is then used to simulate a macro uncertainty shock, which produces a rapid drop and rebound in employment, investment and productivity, and a moderate loss in GDP. This temporary impact of a second moment shock is different from the typically persistent impact of a first moment shock, highlighting the importance for policymakers of identifying their relative magnitudes in major shocks. The simulation of an uncertainty shock is then compared to actual 9/11 data, displaying a surprisingly good match.

Economic uncertainty, parental selection and the criminal activity of the 'children of the wall'

Chevalier, Arnaud; Marie, Olivier
Fonte: Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics and Political Science Publicador: Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics and Political Science
Tipo: Monograph; NonPeerReviewed Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em /01/2014 EN; EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.08%
We study the link between parental selection and children criminality in a new context. After the fall of the Berlin Wall, East Germany experienced an unprecedented temporary drop in fertility driven by economic uncertainty. We exploit this natural experim ent to estimate that the children from these (smaller) cohorts are 40 percent more likely to commit crimes. We show that women who gave birth at this period were negatively selected. Investigation of the underlying mechanisms reveals that emotional attachment and risk attitudes play important roles in the fertility-crime relationship. Finally, results for siblings support a causal interpretation of our findings.

Trade and uncertainty

Novy, Dennis; Taylor, Alan M.
Fonte: Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics and Political Science Publicador: Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics and Political Science
Tipo: Monograph; NonPeerReviewed Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em /05/2014 EN; EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.21%
We offer a new explanation as to why international trade is so volatile in response to economic shocks. Our approach combines the uncertainty shock idea of Bloom (2009) with a model of international trade, extending the idea to the open economy. Firms import intermediate inputs from home or foreign suppliers, but with higher costs in the latter case. Due to fixed costs of ordering firms hold an inventory of intermediates. We show that in response to an uncertainty shock firms optimally adjust their inventory policy by cutting their orders of foreign intermediates disproportionately strongly. In the aggregate, this response leads to a bigger contraction in international trade flows than in domestic economic activity. We confront the model with newly-compiled monthly aggregate U.S. import data and industrial production data going back to 1962, and also with disaggregated data back to 1989. Our results suggest a tight link between uncertainty and the cyclical behaviour of international trade.

Economic recovery and policy uncertainty

Baker, Scott R.; Davis, Steven J.; Bloom, Nick; Van Reenen, John
Fonte: The London School of Economics and Political Science, Center of Economic Performance Publicador: The London School of Economics and Political Science, Center of Economic Performance
Tipo: Monograph; NonPeerReviewed Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em /10/2012 EN; EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.21%
Until some political mechanism creates incentives to elect moderate representatives who can reach across the ideological divide, the US seems destined to heightened levels of policy uncertainty for many years to come. Some research suggests that such uncertainty, particularly over economic policy, partly explains the sluggish nature of the recovery in America – and - according to one recent study, restoring policy uncertainty to levels that prevailed before the financial crisis would raise employment by an estimated 2.3 million over 18-24 months.

Fluctuations in uncertainty

Bloom, Nicholas
Fonte: The London School of Economics and Political Science, Center of Economic Performance Publicador: The London School of Economics and Political Science, Center of Economic Performance
Tipo: Monograph; NonPeerReviewed Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em /12/2013 EN; EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.22%
This review article tries to answer four questions: (i) what are the stylized facts about uncertainty over time; (ii) why does uncertainty vary; (iii) do fluctuations in uncertainty matter; and (iv) did higher uncertainty worsen the Great Recession of 2007-2009? On the first question both macro and micro uncertainty appears to rise sharply in recessions. On the second question the types of exogenous shocks like wars, financial panics and oil price jumps that cause recessions appear to directly increase uncertainty, and uncertainty also appears to endogenously rise further during recessions. On the third question, the evidence suggests uncertainty is damaging for short-run investment and hiring, but there is some evidence it may stimulate longer-run innovation. Finally, in terms of the Great Recession, the large jump in uncertainty in 2008 potentially accounted for about one third of the drop in GDP.

Khat (Catha edulis): the herb with officio-legal, socio-cultural and economic uncertainty

Lamina,Sikiru
Fonte: South African Journal of Science Publicador: South African Journal of Science
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: text/html
Publicado em 01/04/2010 EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.19%
Khat (Catha edulis) is a plant of uncertain and highly controversial status grown in the countries around the Red Sea and on the eastern coast of Africa. The chewing of khat leaves has a deep-rooted religious and socio-cultural tradition. Khat is considered a cash crop and its cultivation is a source of economic value to the societies and nations involved. There have, however, been reports of negative economic effects on the individuals engaging in the habit of khat chewing. The increasing use of khat worldwide, along with the negative international attention that this has garnered, has led to the present status of uncertainty of the once indigenous practice of khat chewing. Scientists, mostly western Europeans, have tended to focus on problems related to khat with little attention to the positive role of khat chewing in society and the world at large. In addition, no report has directly associated khat with any organised crime, violence or antisocial activity, particularly in countries where khat is legalised. This paper reviewed the various areas of uncertainty and controversy relating to khat. Based on the findings of the review, further qualitative and quantitative research is required and a positive international approach to khat use at economic...