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Macrodinâmica à Keynesiana : uma travessia com consistência entre fluxos e estoques a partir do encadeamento de curtos períodos do multiplicador; Keynesian-style macrodinamics : a stock-flow consistent traverse throught the enchainment of short multiplier periods

Fabricio Pitombo Leite
Fonte: Biblioteca Digital da Unicamp Publicador: Biblioteca Digital da Unicamp
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 27/02/2012 PT
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Essa tese esta dividida em três partes. Na primeira, discute-se o curto período subjacente ao multiplicador tradicional dos gastos autonomos, de modo que estejam explicitados os grandes agregados macroeconômicos e as conexoes entre os mesmos, para que a separação entre as parcelas autonoma e induzida com relacao a renda e crucial. Em um segundo capitulo, integrante dessa primeira parte, procede-se a estimativas dos parâmetros envolvidos em uma dada especificação do multiplicador, para o Brasil, nas quais tenta-se ainda captar o período de tempo (cronológico) inerente ao período (teórico) do multiplicador. Na segunda parte, realiza-se a tarefa de justificar o tratamento dado ao investimento, considerado autônomo com relacao a renda, lançando Mao de uma explicação a partir das relações intersetoriais existentes num sistema econômico. Mais uma vez, efetua-se a divisão em dois capítulos, um explicitando a base teórica utilizada, a partir de um esquema multissetorial, e outro apresentando resultados empíricos, baseados em matrizes insumo-produto. Finalmente, na terceira parte, empregando modelos de consistência entre fluxos e estoques, são derivadas algumas implicações dinâmicas para alem do curto período do multiplicador...

Money Multiplier Forecasts

Johannes, James M. ; Rasche, Robert H.
Fonte: William E. Simon Graduate School of Business Administration, University of Rochester Publicador: William E. Simon Graduate School of Business Administration, University of Rochester
ENG
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For the third time, we are prepared to put our models of the multiplier components on record with forecasts of various multipliers. The models that we are using are the same as we have used during the past year; that is the sample period ends in March of 1978, and the only adjustment that has been performed in the post-sample period is a one time shift for the introduction of ATS accounts, imposed consistently across equations in January, 1979 and held constant ever since. The data base for these forecasts is the period through December, 1979, and includes the revisions to account for the call report benchmarks of December, 1978, and March, 1979, that were released by the Board of Governors within the past month.

Recent Behavior of the M1- Adjusted Monetary Base Multiplier and Forecasts for Early 1984

Johannes, James M. ; Rasche, Robert H.
Fonte: William E. Simon Graduate School of Business Administration, University of Rochester Publicador: William E. Simon Graduate School of Business Administration, University of Rochester
ENG
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Since the last meeting of this committee, we have been experimenting with a different presentation of our forecasts of the MI - Adjusted Monetary Base Multiplier. In the past we have always constructed forecasts directly from the forecasts of the various component ratios, which come out of the ARIMA models that we have estimated. These forecasts are not seasonally adjusted, so comparisons over time horizons shorter than one year are difficult to interpret. Our revised presentation allows us to compute forecasts on a seasonally adjusted basis that are not contaminated by errors in forecasting seasonal factors. The presentations employ the known seasonal factors that are published in the Federal Reserve Bulletin for the various components of the monetary aggregates and the seasonal factors constructed each year for the Adjusted Monetary Base by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The exact formulas that are employed to construct a seasonally adjusted forecast of the multiplier from the not seasonally adjusted forecasts of the component ratios are indicated in the note attached to this report.

Recent Behavior of the M1- Adjusted Monetary Base Multiplier and Forecasts for the Remainder of 1984

Rasche, Robert H.
Fonte: William E. Simon Graduate School of Business Administration, University of Rochester Publicador: William E. Simon Graduate School of Business Administration, University of Rochester
ENG
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At the last meeting of this committee, we presented forecasts for the M 1 - Adjusted Monetary Base Multiplier in seasonally adjusted form for the first time. The seasonal adjustment was accomplished by utilizing the published seasonal factors for various components of the monety stock as published by the Federal Reserve Board, and unpublished seasonal factors for the Adjusted Monetary Base provided by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank. Such seasonal factors are revised once each year, and the revision for 1984 was released almost simultaneously with our last meeting. Thus, the forecasts which we prepared for the last meeting are not directly comparable with the actual data that has been released since that time. In order to get some basis for evaluating those forecasts, I have reconstructed them using the same forecasts of the not seasonally adjusted multiplier components that were employed last February, but using the 1984 seasonal factors.

Where is the Mystery in the Behavior of the Monetary Aggregates?

Rasche, Robert H.
Fonte: William E. Simon Graduate School of Business Administration, University of Rochester Publicador: William E. Simon Graduate School of Business Administration, University of Rochester
ENG
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This position paper is divided into three parts. In the first part an analysis is present indicating the extent to which various forces have affected the growth of M1 since last November. (At the time of this writing August data are not yet available. I expect that the analysis can be updated to include August data by the time the Committee meets.) In the second part the forecasts of the money multiplier that were presented at the meeting of the Committee last March, and forecasts which have been made tan a regular basis since that meeting are reviewed to determine the extent that the growth of M1 that has been observed was predictable. The absence of large ex-ante forecast errors casts considerable doubt on the "special circumstances" hypothesis. Finally, the third section presents our current forecasts for the behavior of the M1-Adjusted Monetary Base Multiplier into early 1985.

Update to the September, 1985 Shadow Open Market Committee Report "The Behavior of the Monetary Aggregates in August, 1985" or

Rasche, Robert H.
Fonte: William E. Simon Graduate School of Business Administration, University of Rochester Publicador: William E. Simon Graduate School of Business Administration, University of Rochester
ENG
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In the report that I prepared for this meeting of the Committee two weeks ago, I reviewed in detail the behavior of M1, the Adjusted Monetary Base, the base multiplier and its components over the period November, 1984 through July, 1985. The data that became available this week show little if any revision in the numbers over this period of time, so I will not add to the confusion by redoing that analysis, since the major conclusions reached there still hold. Instead, I will concentrate on the August numbers.

Assessing the Economic Impact of an Oil and Gas Firm’s Head Office Relocation to Calgary, AB

Huffman, John F
Fonte: Quens University Publicador: Quens University
Tipo: Relatório
EN
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Corporate head offices serve as the figureheads and decision-making cores of firms. For a variety of reasons, these head offices tend to locate in major cities. Cities themselves compete to attract head offices for their presumed positive economic impact, but what is the impact? Calgary, Alberta, is Canada’s energy centre and an emerging leader in head office counts that is expected to further grow its share of Canadian corporate head offices. This report seeks to estimate the economic impact of an oil and gas (O&G) firm relocating to Calgary, AB. Based on decades of theory and using data from a variety of sources, two multipliers are calculated: the economic base multiplier and the H.C. Davis income multiplier. By applying these multipliers to data regarding head office employment and O&G industry wages, estimates of the employment and income effects of the relocation are found. The results emphasize the importance of both the O&G industry and attracting head offices to Calgary. Based on these conclusions, two key policy avenues are recommended to encourage further expansion of Calgary’s head office counts.

Malawi - Country Economic Memorandum : Seizing Opportunities for Growth through Regional Integration and Trade - Summary of Main Finding and Recommendations

World Bank
Fonte: World Bank Publicador: World Bank
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Malawi needs to focus on exports to maintain and broaden its current inspiring levels of economic growth. The focus of future policy should therefore be on reforms that improve competitiveness in global and regional markets. This does not require a fundamental shift in direction, but instead a rebalancing of policy and expenditures to support an outward-oriented development framework. Until the recent global financial crisis, domestic and regional trends were promising for Malawi: rapid economic growth, strong donor support, increases in foreign direct investment, real potential to upgrade regional infrastructure, and the gradual dismantling of barriers within the region through the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) and Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) free trade areas. Despite recent global developments, this report makes the case that, for a small landlocked economy like Malawi, integration into a dynamic and more open Southern Africa region will remain a key to building prosperity and improving livelihoods.

Constraints to Growth in Malawi

Lea, Nicholas; Hanmer, Lucia
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
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This paper applies a growth diagnostics approach to identify the most binding constraints to private-sector growth in Malawi - a small, landlocked country in Southern Africa with one of the lowest per capita incomes in the world. The approach aims to identify the constraints (in terms of public policy, implementation, and investments) most binding on marginal investment, and therefore whose relaxation would have the largest impact on growth through the investment channel. The authors find that growth in Malawi has been primarily driven by the domestic multiplier effect from export revenues. The multiplier effect is particularly pronounced due to the high number of smallholder farmers, which produce Malawi s main export crop, tobacco, and consequently results in the widespread and rapid transmission of agricultural export income. Furthermore, despite changes in the structure of agricultural production from estate to smallholder farming and liberalization of prices and finance, a longstanding relationship persists between exports in real domestic currency and overall gross domestic product. This central role of exports in creating domestic demand highlights the importance of the real exchange rate in Malawi s growth story...

The Afghanistan Mining Sector as a Driver of Sustainable Growth : Benefits and Opportunities for Large-Scale Mining

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
EN_US
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This study attempts to quantify the benefits that could be obtained for the country of Afghanistan from the developments of the Aynak copper and Hajigak iron ore deposits and to discuss policies and programs-based on the experience of other countries-that will tend to maximize the benefits from these and other mines. In this study, the potential economic benefits to Afghanistan of its mining sector will be analyzed, focusing on the Aynak copper and Hajigak iron ore deposits. After an overview of the Afghan mineral industry and global trends in mining, a quantitative analysis will be made of the economic contribution of the development of these deposits and related infrastructure for income and employment in Afghanistan. Various scenarios will be presented as well as sensitivity analysis of key parameters. The analysis will focus on income, fiscal revenues, employment, sidestream linkages (sourcing), and the multiplier effects of expenditure by both the government and consumers. In the Afghanistan context...

Investment in Urban Heritage : Economic Impacts of Cultural Heritage Projects in FYR Macedonia and Georgia

Throsby, David
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
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Although World Bank projects in the cultural heritage field are subject to the usual assessments that are applied to any project implementation, little is known about the subsequent performance of these projects in the years post-completion. This study was undertaken to provide some empirical evidence for the economic impacts of cultural heritage investment. Two case studies were chosen for this purpose, in the historic town centers of Skopje, former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, and Tbilisi, Georgia, respectively. The economic principles those are important for the analysis of cultural heritage investment decisions make use of concepts such as scarcity, opportunity cost, and public preferences. The study confirms the positive impacts of the investments. In the Macedonian case, the project helped to stimulate an ongoing investment of US$2.5 million in the project site, the Skopje old bazaar. Tourist numbers increased compared to the control site in Prilep; between 2005 and 2010, daily tourist numbers in the Skopje Old Bazaar increased by 90 percent compared to a slight decline in Prelip. Employment also grew more rapidly in the target site than in the control area. This study leads to some lessons for the design of heritage projects and for the conduct of an ex post economic impact evaluation.

The Contribution of the Mining Sector to Socioeconomic and Human Development

McMahon, Gary; Moreira, Susana
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
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Many low and middle-income mineral-rich countries have experienced strong growth for a decade or longer, propelled by a rapid expansion of their mineral exports and a rise in prices of these commodities. This sustained strong economic performance goes against the accepted wisdom that even though the mining sector, like other extractive industries, can generate foreign exchange and fiscal revenues, it contributes little to sustained economic growth and, by extension, human development. Through the presentation of trends and patterns of various indicators, this paper shows that in addition to economic growth, countries rich in minerals other than oil have experienced significant improvements in their human development index (HDI) scores that are on average better than those experienced by countries without minerals. In a sample of five low and middle-income countries with relatively long histories of mining, benefits came from foreign direct investment (FDI), export revenues, and fiscal revenues. The overall impact of the mining sector was much stronger if there were infrastructure benefits and strong linkages to other industries...

Economics of South African Townships : Special Focus on Diepsloot

Mahajan, Sandeep
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Group Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank Group
EN_US
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Countries everywhere are divided into two distinct spatial realms: one urban, one rural. Classic models of development predict faster growth in the urban sector, causing rapid migration from rural areas to cities, lifting average incomes in both places. The process continues until the marginal productivity of labor is equalized across the two realms. The pattern of rising urbanization accompanying economic growth has become one of the most visible and self-evident empirical facts of development across the world, with almost 200,000 people making the rural-to-urban trek every day, according to the United Nations. Cities across the world are powering growth, development, and modernization. The study then takes a close look at Diepsloot, a large township in the Johannesburg Metropolitan Area, to bring out more vividly the economic realities and choices of township residents. Although atypical in many ways, by the virtue of being newer, poorer, and more informal, with a bigger concentration of migrants (many of them foreign nationals)...

Second Ethiopia Economic Update : Laying the Foundation for Achieving Middle Income Status

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Economic Updates and Modeling; Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH; EN_US
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Over the past decade, Ethiopia has achieved high economic growth, averaging 10.7 percent per year. In 2012, Ethiopia was the 12th fastest growing economy in the World. If the country can continue its historically impressive growth performance, it could potentially reach middle income status by 2025. This, in turn, may require an adjustment in economic policy to phase in the private sector as an additional engine of growth. Moreover, Ethiopia needs to make progress on two related important fronts: enhancing domestic savings, and, resolving the bottlenecks of the trade logistics system. This Second Ethiopia economic update, prepared in collaboration with the Government of Ethiopia, offers policy guidance on how to move forward. Chapter one discusses Ethiopia's growth strategy, which emphasizes a strong expansion of public investment. This model has delivered impressive results, although the underlying macro policy mix highlights important challenges going forward suggesting that an adjustment to strategy may be warranted. One policy challenge relates to raising sufficient domestic savings to finance one of the highest public investment rates in the world...

Tanzania - Sustaining and Sharing Economic Growth : Country Economic Memorandum and Poverty Assessment, Volume 1. Main Report

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Country Economic Memorandum; Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH
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Tanzania's National Strategy for Growth and Reduction of Poverty (NSGRP) sets an ambitious target of 6 to 8 percent annual economic growth to achieve rapid reduction in poverty. This report focuses on three issues that are central to the success of Tanzania's poverty reduction efforts: 0 what factors explain Tanzania's recent acceleration in economic growth; has the accelerated economic growth translated into reduced poverty; and what must be done to sustain economic growth that is pro-poor. The report presents evidence from the macroeconomic, sectoral, and firm and household levels that shed light on these questions. The report is presented in two volumes. Volume I summarizes the main findings and recommendations. Volume II contains the main report.

Mongolia - Sources of Growth : Country Economic Report

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Country Economic Memorandum; Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH
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This economic report aims to inform the ongoing debate on the Government's long term development priorities in Mongolia. It discusses the key facts and potential implications the government would need to consider when determining its public spending, public investment program, fiscal space, and borrowing strategy going forward. The report begins by reviewing the Mongolian growth experience over the 1990s as a pre-requisite to understand the present endowments, and the circumstances under which one needs to think about the future. Chapter 2 applies the "growth diagnostics" approach to identify those factors that are "binding" constraints to growth and are areas in need of immediate policy interventions by the government. Chapter 3 discusses the issues that will need to be addressed in order to develop non-mining sector activities with the aim of economic and export diversification and suggests policies to encourage firm innovation'' and private sector growth. Chapter 4 discusses policies to relax infrastructure bottlenecks in the context of regional development and Mongolia's unique geography. Chapter 5 presents a menu of policies tailored to address the mismatch of skills workers bring to the market and those demanded by the market. Chapter 6 discusses issues related to appropriate management and development of its mineral wealth...

Africa's Pulse, April 2013 : An Analysis of Issues Shaping Africa's Economic Future

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Newsletter; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
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This Africa's pulse newsletter includes the following headings: Sub-Saharan African countries continue to grow at a steady pace; the region's decade-long economic expansion appears sustainable; and for newly resource-rich countries, strong governance will be key to harnessing resource wealth for development

Estimating the Fiscal Multiplier in Argentina

Anos-Casero, Paloma; Cerdeiro, Diego; Trezzi, Riccardo
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
ENGLISH
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Argentina's government has resorted to fiscal policy as a countercyclical tool to mitigate the negative impact of the current economic downturn on aggregate demand. Empirical results based on a vector error correction model suggest, however, that the fiscal multiplier is relatively small and short-lived. This could reflect a number of factors, including the higher propensity of households to save during the economic downturn, the implementation lag of public expenditures, particularly of capital expenditures, and the narrow tax base that limits the impact of countercyclical revenue measures on domestic demand.

Kazakhstan : Country Economic Memorandum, Getting Competitive, Staying Competitive, The Challenge of Managing Kazakhstan's Oil Boom

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Country Economic Memorandum; Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH; EN_US
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Kazakhstan has made substantial progress in its economic transition, and faces a potentially bright future thanks to its oil wealth. The challenge is to increase the country's competitiveness, and expand the benefits of growth, while avoiding the economic and social risks typically associated with oil wealth. The overarching theme of the report is how to exploit the strengths of the Kazakhstan economy in the new oil environment, while avoiding the pitfalls that oil income typically brings. The report provides benchmarks for key aspects of competitiveness in Kazakhstan vis a vis Ukraine, Russia, and the eight most recent members of the EU rather than with other rich countries. This is for two reasons: 1) Kazakhstan's strategic objectives are to level with the European Union (EU) over the long run in terms of living and production standards, and levels of productivity and income; and, 2) although oil and gas already represents a large portion of exports, it does not mean the direct impact of oil in Kazakhstan is as large as in, say, Saudi Arabia or Venezuela. The policy agenda needs to formulate detailed policies and public investments. In this regard, interventions in six broad areas must be developed and prioritized. The six areas discussed entail economic policy...

Desenvolvimento do turismo ou desenvolvimento turístico: reflexões com base em duas regiões atrasadas em São Paulo

Azzoni, Carlos Roberto
Fonte: Universidade de São Paulo. Escola de Comunicações e Artes Publicador: Universidade de São Paulo. Escola de Comunicações e Artes
Tipo: info:eu-repo/semantics/article; info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion; ; ; ; ; ; Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 11/11/1993 POR
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The paper provides a discussion of the necessary and sufficient conditions for a tourism-based process of economic development to take place in a lagged region. A distinction is made between development of the tourism in a region (increase in this activity above the regular trend) and development of a region through tourism (creation of multiplier effects that will activate the region's economy). The cases of two lagged regions in São Paulo State are considered as examples. The Pontal do Paranapanema region is considered to have conditions only for the development of its tourism sector; the Vale do Ribeira region, however, seems to have all the necessary conditions to face development through tourism.; O texto apresenta uma reflexão sobre as possibilidades do turismo constituir o elemento dinamizador de economias regionais atrasadas. Estabelece-se a diferenciação entre desenvolvimento do turismo na região (crescimento dessa atividade na região em relação à tendência observada no passado) e o desenvolvimento turístico da região (o desenvolvimento da atividade turística acarretando efeitos de encadeamento que levam à superação das condições de atraso econômico regional). Os casos das regiões do Pontal do Paranapanema e do Vale do Ribeira...