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Republic of Congo - Employment and Growth Study : From Jobless to Inclusive Growth

World Bank
Fonte: World Bank Publicador: World Bank
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.46%
Unemployment, especially youth unemployment, is a serious problem for the Republic of Congo. Despite the economic recovery and political stabilization in the last decade, insufficient employment has been created, leading to high unemployment rates, especially for the young population in urban areas. This situation of jobless growth has been caused by a number of factors, including the dominance of the public sector in the past, the limited activity of the private sector, the undiversified economy, a mismatch between the skills required by employers and those offered by job seekers and a regulatory and institutional environment that is not fully supportive of employment creation. Action needs to be taken now to promote inclusive growth in the non-oil sectors and create sufficient employment opportunities. It is essential to remove the major obstacles to non-oil growth and employment creation. This employment and growth study seeks to provide recommendations to address the main challenges regarding non-oil growth and employment creation. The results of the study will help to inform government policy...

Unemployment and Worker-Firm Matching : Theory and Evidence from East and West Europe

Munich, Daniel; Svejnar, Jan
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.52%
The paper tests three hypotheses about the causes of unemployment in the Central-East European transition economies and in a benchmark market economy (Western part of Germany). The first hypothesis (H1) is that unemployment is caused by inefficient matching. Hypothesis 2 (H2) is that unemployment is caused by low demand. Hypothesis 3 (H3) is that restructuring is at work. Our estimates suggest that the west and east German parts of Germany, Czech Republic and Slovakia are consistent with H2 and H3. Hungary provides limited support to all three hypotheses. Poland is consistent with H1. The economies in question hence contain one broad group of countries and one or two special cases. The group comprises the Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovak Republic and (possibly) East Germany. These countries resemble West Germany in that they display increasing returns to scale in matching and unemployment appears to be driven by restructuring and low demand. The East German case is complex because of its major active labor market policies and a negative trend in efficiency in matching. In some sense...

Unpacking Youth Unemployment in Latin America

Cunningham, Wendy
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.56%
High youth unemployment rates may be a signal of difficult labor market entry for youth or may reflect high churning. The European and United States literature finds the latter conclusion while the Latin American literature suggests the former. This paper uses panel data to examine whether Latin American youth follow OECD patterns or are, indeed, unique. By decomposing transition matrices into propensity to move and rate of separation matrices and estimating duration matrices, the authors find that Latin American youth do follow the OECD trends: their high unemployment reflects high churning while their duration of unemployment is similar to that of non-youth. The paper also finds that young adults (age 19-24) have higher churning rates than youth; most churning occurs between informal wage employment, unemployment, and out-of-the labor force, even for non-poor youth; and unemployment probabilities are similar for men and women when the analysis control for greater churning by young men. The findings suggest that the "first employment" programs that have become popular in the region are not addressing the key constraints to labor market entry for young people and that more attention should be given to job matching...

Import Protection, Business Cycles, and Exchange Rates : Evidence from the Great Recession

Bown, Chad P.; Crowley, Meredith A.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.38%
This research estimates the impact of macroeconomic fluctuations on import protection policies over 1988:Q1-2010:Q4 for the United States, European Union, and three other industrialized economies. First, estimates on a pre-Great Recession sample provide evidence of three key relationships for the US and EU. Increases in domestic unemployment rates and real appreciations in bilateral exchange rates led to substantial increases in antidumping and related forms of import protection. Furthermore, economies historically imposed these bilateral import restrictions on trading partners going through their own periods of weak economic growth. Second, estimates from the pre-Great Recession model predict a major trade policy response during 2008:Q4-2010:Q4, given the realized macroeconomic shocks. New US and EU trade barriers were projected to cover up to an additional 15 percentage points of nonoil imports, well above the baseline level of 2-3 percent of import coverage immediately preceding the crisis. Third, re-estimating the model on data from the Great Recession period illustrates why the realized trade policy response differed from model predictions based on historical data. While exchange rate movements played an important role in limiting new import protection...

Agro-Manufactured Export Prices, Wages and Unemployment

Porto, Guido
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.5%
This paper estimates the impacts of world agricultural trade liberalization on wages, employment and unemployment in Argentina, a country with positive net agricultural exports and high unemployment rates. In the estimation of these wage and unemployment responses, the empirical model allows for individual labor supply responses and for adjustment costs in labor demand. The findings show that a 10 percent increase in the price of agricultural exports would cause an increase in the Argentine employment probability of 1.36 percentage points, matched by a decline in the unemployment probability of 0.75 percentage points and an increase in labor market participation of 0.61 percentage points. Further, the unemployment rate would decline by 1.23 percentage points (by almost 10 percent). Expected wages would increase by 10.3 percent, an effect that is mostly driven by higher employment probabilities. This indicates that the bulk of the impacts of trade reforms originates in household responses in the presence of adjustment costs...

Assessing Interactions among Education, Social Insurance, and Labor Market Policies in a General Equilibrium Framework : An Application to Morocco

Marouani, Mohamed A.; Robalino, David A.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.57%
This paper develops a general equilibrium model to analyze the marginal and joint impacts that alternative macroeconomic, education, and social protection policies have on the dynamics of employment and unemployment by skill level. The model introduces a disaggregated treatment of the labor market that incorporates an informal sub-sector in every sector of the economy. The analysis explicitly models the distribution of skills in the labor force by following over time sex-age cohorts across various levels of the education system and in the labor market. And it integrates a module that projects the revenues and expenditures of the pension system. The model is applied to the case of Morocco. Simulations show that even under positive assumptions regarding economic growth, unemployment rates are likely to remain close to current levels in the next decade. The paper argues that only an integrated package of policies that affect the macro-economy, the investment climate, and the education and social protection systems would allow sustainable creation of enough "good quality" jobs.

Youth Unemployment, Labor Market Transitions, and Scarring : Evidence from Bosnia and Herzegovina, 2001-04

Fares, Jean; Tiongson, Erwin R.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.5%
Relatively little is known about youth unemployment and its lasting consequences in transition economies, despite the difficult labor market adjustment experienced by these countries over the past decade. The authors examine early unemployment spells and their longer-term effects among the youth in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), where the labor market transition is made more difficult by the challenges of a post-conflict environment. They use panel data covering up to 4,800 working-age individuals over the 2001 to 2004 period. There are three main findings from their analysis. First, youth unemployment is high-about twice the national average-consistent with recent findings from the BiH labor market study. Younger workers are more likely to go into inactivity or unemployment and are also less likely to transition out of inactivity, holding other things constant. Second, initial spells of unemployment or joblessness appear to have lasting adverse effects on earnings and employment ("scarring"). But there is no evidence that the youth are at a greater risk of scarring...

Unemployment and the Earnings Structure in Latvia

Hazans, Mihails
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.39%
Latvia has recorded sustained GDP and productivity growth since 1997. Yet unemployment rates, despite gradual decrease, have remained high. The paper explores the mysteries of unemployment in Latvia. It analyzes labor flows between employment, unemployment, and nonparticipation and finds the following results: The type of education and the region of residence appear to be the most important determinants of success in finding jobs by the unemployed. The unemployed from ethnic minorities have lower chances to find a job within a year, other things equal, while the difference between genders is not significant. However, neither ethnicity nor gender seems to matter as far as the transition from employment to unemployment is concerned. Regional disparities in job destruction seem to be less sizable than disparities in job creation. The analysis of job search methods by the unemployed indicates that two target groups of state employment policy (young unemployed and long-term unemployed) appear to make relatively little use of the public employment service. The author also looks at the impact of education, age, gender, ethnicity, and regional factors on individual earnings. The relative position of youth and women in Latvian labor market...

Unemployment Registration and Benefits in ECA Countries

Kuddo, Arvo
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.41%
Public Employment Services (PES) in several Europe and Central Asia (ECA) countries are severely limited by underfunded labor market programs, understaffing, and fragmented networks of employment offices. Cash benefits and other entitlements like health insurance often act as incentives to job seekers to register with PES. However, such benefits can and often do encourage unemployment registration by economically inactive individuals. Registered unemployment exceeds survey based unemployment rates in about half of ECA countries (mostly Central Europe and Western Balkans). Registered unemployment is much lower than survey-based unemployment in the Baltic States and Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries, primarily due to low access to unemployment benefits and active labor market programs (ALMPs). The numbers of unemployment assistance beneficiaries vary significantly across ECA. In 2009, for example, 85 percent of the registered unemployed in Russia received benefits but, in eight ECA countries...

Soft Skills or Hard Cash? The Impact of Training and Wage Subsidy Programs on Female Youth Employment in Jordan

Groh, Matthew; Krishnan, Nandini; McKenzie, David; Vishwanath, Tara
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.47%
Throughout the Middle East, unemployment rates of educated youth have been persistently high and female labor force participation, low. This paper studies the impact of a randomized experiment in Jordan designed to assist female community college graduates find employment. One randomly chosen group of graduates was given a voucher that would pay an employer a subsidy equivalent to the minimum wage for up to 6 months if they hired the graduate; a second group was invited to attend 45 hours of employability skills training designed to provide them with the soft skills employers say graduates often lack; a third group was offered both interventions; and the fourth group forms the control group. The analysis finds that the job voucher led to a 40 percentage point increase in employment in the short-run, but that most of this employment is not formal, and that the average effect is much smaller and no longer statistically significant 4 months after the voucher period has ended. The voucher does appear to have persistent impacts outside the capital...

Labor Markets and School-to-Work Transition in Egypt : Diagnostics, Constraints, and Policy Framework

Angel-Urdinola, Diego; Semlali, Amina
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.52%
Analysis in this policy note indicates a rapid deterioration in employment opportunities for young individuals transitioning from school to work in Egypt. Despite substantial improvements in labor market outcomes in recent years (in raising employment and participation and in lowering unemployment), unemployment rates in Egypt remain exceedingly high among youth entering the labor market for the first time. A slow school-to-work transition remains the main reason behind high unemployment rates. Young entrants to the labor market have become more educated than ever before: the share of the working-age-population with university education in Egypt has increased significantly between the years 1998 and 2006 (from 14% to 19% among men and from 9% to 14% among women). However, youth are unable to capitalize the time and resources invested in their education as the labor market is not providing enough good-quality jobs for them. To cope with scarce formal jobs, young-educated workers are opting to work in the informal sector and/or withdraw from the labor force...

Episodes of Unemployment Reduction in Rich, Middle-Income, and Transition Economies

Freund, Caroline; Rijkers, Bob
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.49%
This paper studies the incidence and determinants of episodes of drastic unemployment reduction, defined as swift, substantial, and sustained declines in unemployment. Forty-three episodes are identified over a period of nearly three decades in 94 rich, middle-income, and transition countries. Unemployment reductions often coincide with an acceleration of growth and an improvement in macroeconomic conditions. Episodes are much more prevalent in countries with higher levels of unemployment and, given unemployment, are more likely in countries with better regulation. An efficient legal system that enforces contracts expeditiously is particularly important for reducing unemployment. The results imply that while employment is largely related to the business cycle, better regulation reduces the likelihood of high unemployment and facilitates a more rapid recovery in the event unemployment builds up.

Youth Unemployment in the Caribbean

Parra-Torrado, Monica
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.51%
Global economic shocks coupled with natural disasters left most Caribbean countries with zero to negative growth and high unemployment rates. The Caribbean region was strongly affected by the last great financial crisis, which resulted in a regional average of zero economic growth in 2010. The purpose of this note is to evaluate the nature of youth unemployment in order to propose policy options to address it. It is organized in three sections. The first section describes the trends and patterns of total unemployment. The second section focuses on youth unemployment. The third and final section discusses policy considerations.

Strengthening Recovery in Central and Eastern Europe : EU11 Regular Economic Report

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.5%
Economic growth is expected to almost double in EU11 (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, the Slovak Republic, Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania and Slovenia) in 2014, and continue to strengthen in 2015. The northern countries of Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania will continue to be amongst the fastest growing countries in the EU, despite the negative impact of falling external demand as growth slows in their main trading partners. Croatia is the only country expected to remain in recession, for a sixth consecutive year, in 2014, as declining domestic demand continues to outweigh export growth. Recovery is expected to be gradual, with growth not reaching pre-crisis rates for some time. Inflation rates are expected to remain below targets during 2014, with some countries already experiencing deflation, but as global commodity prices stabilize, activity increases and output gaps diminish, inflation is expected to gradually rise. Fiscal consolidation will continue in 2014 and 2015, but at a more gradual pace than in the previous years. Economic growth forecasts in the EU11 are subject to multiple risks...

Testing the Importance of Search Frictions, Matching, and Reservation Prestige through Randomized Experiments in Jordan

Groh, Matthew; McKenzie, David; Shammout, Nour; Vishwanath, Tara
Fonte: World Bank Group, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank Group, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.49%
Unemployment rates for tertiary-educated youth in Jordan are high, as is the duration of unemployment. Two randomized experiments in Jordan were used to test different theories that may explain this phenomenon. The first experiment tested the role of search and matching frictions by providing firms and job candidates with an intensive screening and matching service based on educational backgrounds and psychometric assessments. Although more than 1,000 matches were made, youth rejected the opportunity to even have an interview in 28 percent of cases, and when a job offer was received, they rejected this offer or quickly quit the job 83 percent of the time. A second experiment built on the first by examining the willingness of educated, unemployed youth to apply for jobs of varying levels of prestige. Youth applied to only a small proportion of the job openings they were told about, with application rates higher for higher prestige jobs than lower prestige jobs. Youth failed to show up for the majority of interviews scheduled for low prestige jobs. The results suggest that reservation prestige is an important factor underlying the unemployment of educated Jordanian youth.

Labor Markets and School-to-Work Transition in Egypt

Angel-Urdinola, Diego F.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Brief
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.57%
Despite substantial improvements in labor market outcomes in recent years (in raising employment and participation and in lowering unemployment), unemployment rates in Egypt remain exceedingly high among youth2 entering the labor market for the first time. A slow school-to-work transition remains the main reason behind high unemployment rates. The youth unemployment rate in Egypt, at 24 percent in year 2006, is high for international standards- though similar to those in North Africa. Moreover, youth entering the labor market for the first time account for about 82 percent of the countrys unemployed workers.

Demographic Transition and the Labor Market in Sri Lanka

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.53%
Sri Lanka's demographic transition has significantly shaped the age distribution of the labor force and created a large working age population (World Bank 2008). Changing cohort sizes of young and old workers not only affect their own labor market outcomes (job quality, earnings), but also potentially affect growth prospects in the economy. Recovering from a 30-year conflict in the North and the East, Sri Lanka aims to accelerate growth in the medium term by substantially increasing investments. What will be the role of the labor market in delivering this growth? The service sector is expanding and accounts for nearly 60 percent of the Growth Domestic Product (GDP) and almost 40 percent of employment. However, only 56 percent of the working age population is employed, a result of low participation and high unemployment rates among women and youth. Any growth strategy will have to bring in more working age people, particularly women, into economic activity. The paper is organized as follows. The two sections that follow present an overview of the supply and demand side of the labor market. The next section discusses the ways in which the demographic transition could shape the labor market...

Jordan - Resolving Jordan's Labor Market Paradox of Concurrent Economic Growth and High Unemployment

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Policy Note; Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.5%
Reducing unemployment is a top priority of the Government of Jordan, as expressed in its principal strategies, "we are all Jordan" and the national agenda. Consistent with those strategies and with the recommendations of donors, the Government's approach to reducing unemployment has been to create jobs by attracting investments that promote gross domestic product (GDP) growth. In recent years, Jordan has successfully attracted investment, achieved strong GDP growth, and created many new jobs. This report also recommends actions to further the Government's goal of reducing employment. To accomplish this we cover industrial policy, fiscal policy, regional development, education, and social protection programs. Although this report comments on employment aspects of several policies and programs, truly comprehensive analysis of these policies and programs is beyond its scope. Rather, these findings and recommendations should be considered in the context of ongoing work by the Government, the World Bank, and other donors the various policy and program areas. That work includes analytical work and investments in the areas of: (a) public expenditure...

Labor Markets in Low and Middle-Income Countries : Trends and Implications for Social Protection and Labor Policies

Cho, Yoonyoung; Margolis, David N.; Newhouse, David; Robalino, David A.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.5%
This paper reviews labor market trends throughout the developing world, identifies issues and policy priorities across groups of countries, and derives implications for the World Bank's new social protection and labor strategy. Five key issues are identified: a high and growing share of the labor force that is self?employed or working in household enterprises, exposure to income shocks with limited access to risk management systems, low female participation rates, high youth unemployment rates, and the need to manage migration flows and remittances. The paper then details a three pronged agenda based on providing incentives and conditions for work, improving the efficiency of job creation, and managing risks / facilitating labor market transitions. This suggests that the Bank should emphasize self?employment and entrepreneurship promotion, provision of skills and development opportunities, and facilitation of labor market transitions into and between jobs, while protecting workers from shocks and paying particular attention to youth.

Gender gaps in unemployment rates in OECD countries

Azmat, Ghazala; Guell, Maia; Manning, Alan
Fonte: Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics and Political Science Publicador: Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics and Political Science
Tipo: Monograph; NonPeerReviewed Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em /01/2004 EN; EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.47%
There is an enormous literature on gender gaps in pay and labour market participation but virtually no literature on gender gaps in unemployment rates. Although there are some countries in which there is essentially no gender gap in unemployment, there are others in which the female unemployment rate is substantially above the male. Although it is easy to give plausible reasons for why more women than men may decide not to want work, it is not so obvious why, once they have decided they want a job, women in some countries are less likely to be in employment than men. This is the subject of this paper. We show that, in countries where there is a large gender gap in unemployment rates, there is a gender gap in both flows from employment into unemployment and from unemployment into employment. We investigate different hypotheses about the sources of these gaps. Most hypotheses find little support in the data and the gender gap in unemployment rates (like the gender gap in pay) remains largely unexplained. But it does seem to correlate with attitudes on whether men are more deserving of work than women so that discrimination against women may explain part of the gender gap in unemployment rates in the Mediterranean countries.