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Structural change, balance-of-payments constraint, and economic growth: evidence from the multisectoral Thirlwall`s law

GOUVEA, Raphael Rocha; LIMA, Gilberto Tadeu
Fonte: M E SHARPE INC Publicador: M E SHARPE INC
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.87%
This paper contributes to the literature on balance-of-payments constrained growth by investigating how structural change identified with changes in the sectoral composition of exports and imports affects the external constraint We test both the original and a multisectoral version of Thirlwall`s law for a sample of Latin American and Asian countries The original Thirlwall s law is found to hold for all sample countries except South Korea, whereas the multisectoral analogue holds for all of them As the sectoral composition of exports and imports is found to matter for growth we analyze the evolution of each country`s weighted trade income elasticities

Testing the long-run implications of the expectation hypothesis using cointegration techniques with structural change

Pereira, Pedro Luiz Valls
Fonte: Fundação Getúlio Vargas Publicador: Fundação Getúlio Vargas
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.87%
This paper investigates whether or not multivariate cointegrated process with structural change can describe the Brazilian term structure of interest rate data from 1995 to 2006. In this work the break point and the number of cointegrated vector are assumed to be known. The estimated model has four regimes. Only three of them are statistically different. The first starts at the beginning of the sample and goes until September of 1997. The second starts at October of 1997 until December of 1998. The third starts at January of 1999 and goes until the end of the sample. It is used monthly data. Models that allows for some similarities across the regimes are also estimated and tested. The models are estimated using the Generalized Reduced-Rank Regressions developed by Hansen (2003). All imposed restrictions can be tested using likelihood ratio test with standard asymptotic 1 qui-squared distribution. The results of the paper show evidence in favor of the long run implications of the expectation hypothesis for Brazil.

Growth, structural change and technological capabilities Latin America in a comparative perspective

Cimoli, Mario; Porcile, Gabriel; Primi, Annalisa; Vergara, Sebastián; Brito, Marcio Holland de
Fonte: Fundação Getúlio Vargas Publicador: Fundação Getúlio Vargas
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.87%
Countries differ in terms of technological capabilities and complexity of production structures. According to that, countries may follow different development strategies: one based on extracting rents from abundant endowments, such as labor or natural resources, and the other focused on creating rents through intangibles, basically innovation and knowledge accumulation. The present article studies international convergence and divergence, linking structural change with trade and growth through a North South Ricardian model. The analysis focuses on the asymmetries between Latin America and mature and catching up economies. Empirical evidence supports that a shift in the composition of the production structure in favor of R&D intensive sectors allows achieving higher rates of growth in the long term and increases the capacity to respond to demand changes. A virtuous export-led growth requires laggard countries to reduce the technological gap with respect to more advanced ones. Hence, abundance of factor endowments requires to be matched with technological capabilities development for countries to converge in the long term.

Evaluating the existence of structural change in the brazilian term structure of interest : evidence based on cointegration models with structural break

Marçal, Emerson Fernandes; Valls Pereira, Pedro L.
Fonte: Fundação Getúlio Vargas Publicador: Fundação Getúlio Vargas
Relevância na Pesquisa
66%
This paper investigates whether there is evidence of structural change in the Brazilian term structure of interest rates. Multivariate cointegration techniques are used to verify this evidence. Two econometrics models are estimated. The rst one is a Vector Autoregressive Model with Error Correction Mechanism (VECM) with smooth transition in the deterministic coe¢ cients (Ripatti and Saikkonen [25]). The second one is a VECM with abrupt structural change formulated by Hansen [13]. Two datasets were analysed. The rst one contains a nominal interest rate with maturity up to three years. The second data set focuses on maturity up to one year. The rst data set focuses on a sample period from 1995 to 2010 and the second from 1998 to 2010. The frequency is monthly. The estimated models suggest the existence of structural change in the Brazilian term structure. It was possible to document the existence of multiple regimes using both techniques for both databases. The risk premium for di¤erent spreads varied considerably during the earliest period of both samples and seemed to converge to stable and lower values at the end of the sample period. Long-term risk premiums seemed to converge to inter- national standards, although the Brazilian term structure is still subject to liquidity problems for longer maturities.

Testing for structural change in a mixture of linear regressions

Faria, Susana; Soromenho, Gilda
Fonte: Universidade do Minho Publicador: Universidade do Minho
Tipo: Conferência ou Objeto de Conferência
Publicado em //2006 ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.94%
Over the last years, several structural change tests have been extended to monitoring of linear regression models where new data arrive over time. In this work, we derive a new procedure for the problem testing for structural change in a mixture of linear regressions. In this procedure, the parameters of a mixture of linear regression model are estimated from all available data (initial data plus newly arrived data) and compared to the estimates based only on initial data. The procedure is illustrated through a simulation study on both simulated and real data sets.; Forum for Interdisciplinary Mathematics.; Pushpa Publishing House.; Auburn University (USA).; University of South Alabama (USA).; Instituto de Seguros de Portugal (ISP).; Instituto Nacional de Estatística (INE).; Fundação Luso-Americana para o Desenvolvimento (FLAD).

R&D, structural change and productivity: the role of high and medium-high technology industries

Varum, C.A.; Cibrão, B.; Morgado, A.; Costa, J.
Fonte: Universidade de São Paulo Publicador: Universidade de São Paulo
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.94%
This paper investigates the potential impact of increased R&D efforts and structural change in Portugal on labour productivity. Based on existing literature on the relation between R&D expenditures, structural change and productivity, we evaluate the contribution of R&D and hightech industries to productivity over the last 30 years. Our results confirm the importance of business R&D in the medium to high-tech sectors and of public R&D, as they stimulate productivity growth. However, we cannot support the hypothosis that productivity growth was primarily rooted in the development of medium-high technology industries.; Este artigo investiga o potencial impacto do aumento de I&D e de mudanças estruturais na produtividade do trabalho em Portugal. Com base na literatura sobre a relação entre despesas em I&D, mudança estrutural e produtividade, avaliamos a contribuição da I&D e das indústrias de alta tecnologia neste cenário durante os últimos 30 anos. Os resultados obtidos confirmam a importância dos investimentos em I&D das empresas de indústrias de alta e média-alta tecnologia e I&D público no crescimento da produtividade. Não obstante, não podemos afirmar que este fenômeno tenha como esteio principal o crescente relevo destas indústrias.

R & D, structural change and productivity: the role of high and medium-high technology industries

Varum,Celeste Amorim; Cibrão,Bruno; Morgado,António; Costa,Joana
Fonte: Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade de Ribeirão Preto da Universidade de São Paulo Publicador: Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade de Ribeirão Preto da Universidade de São Paulo
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: text/html
Publicado em 01/12/2009 EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.94%
This paper investigates the potential impact of increased R & D efforts and structural change in Portugal on labour productivity. Based on existing literature on the relation between R & D expenditures, structural change and productivity, we evaluate the contribution of R & D and hightech industries to productivity over the last 30 years. Our results confirm the importance of business R & D in the medium to high-tech sectors and of public R & D, as they stimulate productivity growth. However, we cannot support the hypothosis that productivity growth was primarily rooted in the development of medium-high technology industries.

Structural change in the brazilian economy in the 2000s

Messa,Alexandre
Fonte: Instituto de Economa da Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro Publicador: Instituto de Economa da Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: text/html
Publicado em 01/12/2013 EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.91%
This paper investigates the sources of structural change in the Brazilian economy in the 2000s. On that purpose, it uses the input-output structural decomposition analysis and introduces a method to correct the influence of prices on the time behavior of the technical coefficients, making them actually represent changes in the production structure. Results show that most of the growth differential between services and industry in that period was induced by the production structure: more precisely, by a lower intermediate consumption of domestic industrial inputs by the production chain of all economic sectors, concomitant with a higher intermediate consumption of services.

Growth Identification and Facilitation : The Role of the State in the Dynamics of Structural Change

Lin, Justin Yifu; Monga, Celestin
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.99%
Active economic policies by developing countries governments to promote growth and industrialization have generally been viewed with suspicion by economists, and for good reasons: past experiences show that such policies have too often failed to achieve their stated objectives. But the historical record also indicates that in all successful economies, the state has always played an important role in facilitating structural change and helping the private sector sustain it across time. This paper proposes a new approach to help policymakers in developing countries identify those industries that may hold latent comparative advantage. It also recommends ways of removing binding constraints to facilitate private firms entry into those industries. The paper introduces an important distinction between two types of government interventions. First are policies that facilitate structural change by overcoming information and coordination and externality issues, which are intrinsic to industrial upgrading and diversification. Such interventions aim to provide information...

Structural Change and Cross-Country Growth Empirics

Eberhardt, Markus; Teal, Francis
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.96%
One of the most striking features of economic growth is the process of structural change whereby the share of agriculture in GDP decreases as countries develop. The cross-country growth literature typically estimates an aggregate homogeneous production function or convergence regression model that abstracts from this process of structural change. This paper investigates the extent to which assumptions about aggregation and homogeneity matter for inferences regarding the nature of technology differences across countries. Using a unique World Bank dataset, it estimates production functions for agriculture and manufacturing in a panel of 40 developing and developed countries for the period from 1963 to 1992. It empirically models dimensions of heterogeneity across countries, allowing for different choices of technology within both sectors. The paper argues that heterogeneity is important within sectors across countries implying that an analysis of aggregate data will not produce useful measures of the nature of the technology or productivity. It shows that many of the puzzling elements in aggregate cross-country empirics can be explained by inappropriate aggregation across heterogeneous sectors.

Structural Change, Dualism and Economic Development : The Role of the Vulnerable Poor on Marginal Lands

Barbier, Edward B.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.96%
Empirical evidence indicates that in many developing regions, the extreme poor in more marginal land areas form a "residual" pool of rural labor. Structural transformation in such developing economies depends crucially on labor and land use decisions of these most-vulnerable populations located on abundant but marginal agricultural land. Although the modern sector may be the source of dynamic growth through learning-by-doing and knowledge spillovers, patterns of labor, land and other natural resources use in the rural economy matter in the overall dynamics of structural change. The concentration of the rural poor on marginal lands is essentially a barometer of economy-wide development. As long as there are abundant marginal lands for cultivation, they serve to absorb rural migrants, increased population, and displaced unskilled labor from elsewhere in the economy. Moreover, the economy is vulnerable to the "Dutch disease" effects of a booming primary products sector. As a consequence, productivity increases and expansion in the commercial primary production sector will cause manufacturing employment and output to contract...

Structural Change in Ethiopia : An Employment Perspective

Martins, Pedro
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.94%
This paper investigates whether the Ethiopian economy is undergoing a virtuous process of structural change. In particular, it assesses the relative contributions of within-sector and between-sector productivity to output per capita growth. Based on data disaggregated into eight sectors for the period 1996-2011, the analysis suggests that the structure of output has changed considerably -- predominantly from agriculture to services -- but changes in the composition of employment have lagged behind. Labor productivity growth has been strong across most sectors, albeit mainly driven by within-sector productivity improvements. Nonetheless, the pace of structural change is accelerating and its relative contribution to output growth is increasing.

Structural Change and Cross-Country Growth Empirics

Eberhardt, Markus; Teal, Francis
Fonte: Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank Publicador: Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.94%
One of the most striking features of economic growth is the process of structural change whereby the share of agriculture in GDP decreases as countries develop. The cross-country growth literature typically estimates an aggregate homogeneous production function or convergence regression model that abstracts from the process of structural change. In this paper, we investigate the extent to which assumptions about aggregation and homogeneity matter for inferences regarding the nature of technology differences across countries. Using a unique World Bank dataset, we estimate production functions for agriculture and manufacturing in a panel of 40 developing and developed countries for the period from 1963 to 1992. We empirically model dimensions of heterogeneity across countries, allowing for different choices of technology within both sectors. We argue that heterogeneity is important within sectors across countries implying that an analysis of aggregate data will not produce useful measures of the nature of the technology or productivity. We show that many of the puzzling elements in aggregate cross-country empirics can be explained by inappropriate aggregation across heterogeneous sectors.

Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables Using Diffusion Indexes in Short Samples with Structural Change

BANERJEE, Anindya; MARCELLINO, Massimiliano; MASTEN, Igor
Fonte: European University Institute Publicador: European University Institute
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento Formato: application/pdf; digital
EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
66%
We conduct a detailed simulation study of the forecasting performance of diffusion index-based methods in short samples with structural change. We consider several data generation processes, to mimic different types of structural change, and compare the relative forecasting performance of factor models and more traditional time series methods. We find that changes in the loading structure of the factors into the variables of interest are extremely important in determining the performance of factor models. We complement the analysis with an empirical evaluation of forecasts for the key macroeconomic variables of the Euro area and Slovenia, for which relatively short samples are officially available and structural changes are likely. The results are coherent with the findings of the simulation exercise, and confirm the relatively good performance of factor-based forecasts also in short samples with structural change.

Computation and Analysis of Multiple Structural-Change Models

BAI, Jushan; PERRON, Pierre
Fonte: Université de Montréal Publicador: Université de Montréal
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: 2170027 bytes; application/pdf
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.93%
In a recent paper, Bai and Perron (1998) considered theoretical issues related to the limiting distribution of estimators and test statistics in the linear model with multiple structural changes. In this companion paper, we consider practical issues for the empirical applications of the procedures. We first address the problem of estimation of the break dates and present an efficient algorithm to obtain global minimizers of the sum of squared residuals. This algorithm is based on the principle of dynamic programming and requires at most least-squares operations of order O(T 2) for any number of breaks. Our method can be applied to both pure and partial structural-change models. Secondly, we consider the problem of forming confidence intervals for the break dates under various hypotheses about the structure of the data and the errors across segments. Third, we address the issue of testing for structural changes under very general conditions on the data and the errors. Fourth, we address the issue of estimating the number of breaks. We present simulation results pertaining to the behavior of the estimators and tests in finite samples. Finally, a few empirical applications are presented to illustrate the usefulness of the procedures. All methods discussed are implemented in a GAUSS program available upon request for non-profit academic use.; Dans un récent papier...

Mudança estrutural e o setor de serviços no Brasil; Structural change and the service sector in Brazil

Vanessa Moraes Lugli
Fonte: Biblioteca Digital da Unicamp Publicador: Biblioteca Digital da Unicamp
Tipo: Dissertação de Mestrado Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 24/02/2015 PT
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.94%
A mudança estrutural pode ser entendida como uma transformação de longo prazo da estrutura produtiva de um país estando, portanto, intrinsecamente relacionada ao desenvolvimento econômico. Nesse processo, os setores e as atividades produtivas crescem a velocidades diferentes, alterando assim a sua participação na geração do produto e do emprego agregados. Nas últimas décadas, iniciou-se um debate, não apenas nos países desenvolvidos, mas também em desenvolvimento, como o Brasil, sobre a ocorrência de um processo de desindustrialização dessas economias, dado pela retração do setor industrial em contrapartida à expansão do setor de serviços. Considerando que, dentro deste debate, o setor de serviços foi analisado como uma categoria residual, composto por diversas atividades muito distintas entre si e que não se encaixavam na classificação de agropecuária ou indústria, sua análise de forma agregada pode ser problemática, levando a resultados e conclusões imprecisos. Sendo assim, esse trabalho se propõe a analisar de forma detalhada o setor de serviços no Brasil no período entre 2000 e 2012, compreendendo melhor a sua estrutura e a sua dinâmica, contribuindo também para qualificar essa mudança estrutural e seus impactos sobre o desenvolvimento econômico brasileiro.; Structural change can be understood as a long-term transformation of the productive structure of a country...

Structural Change Under New Labour

Coutts, Ken; Glyn, Andrew; Rowthorn, Bob
Fonte: Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge, UK Publicador: Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge, UK
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento
EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.99%
The paper examines specific features of structural change in the UK since 1997, contrasting the decline in industrial jobs with the rise in a variety of service jobs. It examines the proximate causes of structural change, in particular whether the chronically slow growth of manufacturing output in the 1980s has persisted. The implications of this structural change are considered, particularly the effects on the balance of payments and regional employment patterns. The paper suggests that the main impact of government policies on regional employment may have been through the direct and multiplier effects of public expenditure.

R & D, structural change and productivity: the role of high and medium-high technology industries

Varum, Celeste Amorim; Cibrão, Bruno; Morgado, António; Costa, Joana
Fonte: Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade de RP Publicador: Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade de RP
Tipo: info:eu-repo/semantics/article; info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion; ; ; Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 01/12/2009 ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.94%
This paper investigates the potential impact of increased R & D efforts and structural change in Portugal on labour productivity. Based on existing literature on the relation between R & D expenditures, structural change and productivity, we evaluate the contribution of R & D and hightech industries to productivity over the last 30 years. Our results confirm the importance of business R & D in the medium to high-tech sectors and of public R & D, as they stimulate productivity growth. However, we cannot support the hypothosis that productivity growth was primarily rooted in the development of medium-high technology industries.; Este artigo investiga o potencial impacto do aumento deI & D e de mudanças estruturais na produtividade do trabalho em Portugal. Com base na literatura sobre a relação entre despesas emI & D, mudança estrutural e produtividade, avaliamos a contribuição daI & D e das indústrias de alta tecnologia neste cenário durante os últimos 30 anos. Os resultados obtidos confirmam a importância dos investimentos emI & D das empresas de indústrias de alta e média-alta tecnologia eI & D público no crescimento da produtividade. Não obstante, não podemos afirmar que este fenômeno tenha como esteio principal o crescente relevo destas indústrias.

Structural Change, Economic Crisis and International Labour Migration in East Asia

Manning, Chris
Fonte: Blackwell Publishing Ltd Publicador: Blackwell Publishing Ltd
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Relevância na Pesquisa
66%
This paper has two objectives. First, it seeks to fill a gap in the knowledge of East Asian internationalisation and economic integration by examining labour migration in the pre-crisis period, and its association with structural change. Second, it examines the impact of the East Asian crisis on ILM. This enables us to speculate on the extent to which the crisis has disturbed the pre-crisis pattern of increasing ILM that was associated with rapid structural change and internationalisation. The paper examines the tension between longer-term structural factors that had driven increasing ILM, on the one hand, and the abrupt impact of the Asian economic crisis on the demand for migrant workers on the other. The paper is structured as follows. Section 2 maps the relationship between ILM and structural change during the boom period of economic growth and globalisation, focusing on the decade before the economic crisis in East Asia. Section 3 surveys the impact of the Asian economic crisis on labour mobility, focusing on the four economies most affected by the crisis. In Section 4 I look briefly at trends in business and professional migration followed by some concluding remarks.

Evaluating the existence of structural change in the Brazilian term structure of interest rate: evidence based on Hansens cointegration models with structural break

Marcal, Emerson F.; Pereira, Pedro L. Valls
Fonte: Universidade de São Paulo. Instituto de Matemática e Estatística Publicador: Universidade de São Paulo. Instituto de Matemática e Estatística
Tipo: info:eu-repo/semantics/article; info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion; ; ; Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 12/12/2014 ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.99%
This paper investigates whether there is evidence of struc- tural change in the Brazilian term structure of interest rates. Multivari- ate cointegration techniques are used to verify this evidence. An econo- metric model is estimated which is a Vector Autoregressive Model with Error Correction Mechanism (VECM) with abrupt structural change formulated by Hansen [13]. Two datasets were analysed. The rst one contains a nominal interest rate with maturity up to three years. The second data set focuses on maturity up to one year. The rst data set focuses on a sample period from 1995 to 2010 and the second from 1998 to 2010. The frequency is monthly. The estimated models suggest the existence of structural change in the Brazilian term structure. It was possible to document the existence of multiple regimes using the tech- nique for both databases. The risk premium for dierent spreads varied considerably during the earliest period of both samples and seemed to converge to stable and lower values at the end of the sample period. Long-term risk premiums seemed to converge to international stand- ards, although the Brazilian term structure is still subject to liquidity problems for longer maturities.