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Procedimento para análise de sensibilidade do Programa HDM-4; Procedure for sensitivity analysis of the HDM-4 software

Nunes, Diego Frinhani
Fonte: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP Publicador: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP
Tipo: Dissertação de Mestrado Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 13/04/2012 PT
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.86%
A presente dissertação teve como objetivos principais delinear um procedimento de análise de sensibilidade que possa ser utilizado de forma ampla por usuários do programa computacional de gerência de pavimentos HDM-4 e analisar a influência de modificações no cenário pré-definido no estudo de caso, notadamente considerações de projeto e de tráfego. A escolha do Método dos Efeitos Elementares foi precedida por uma revisão bibliográfica sobre análise de sensibilidade, sendo que o procedimento foi delineado com um estudo de caso que partiu de um cenário pré-definido (rodovia de pista simples e pavimento asfáltico sobre base granular) e fez a análise da variação de 61 fatores, em 300 trajetórias, totalizando 18.600 simulações no programa HDM-4. Os resultados deste estudo indicaram que a utilização de uma amostra com 30 trajetórias é adequada, pois aumentar este número não acarreta ganhos significativos e a sua diminuição ocasiona prejuízos. Com o procedimento delineado, passou-se à verificação de impactos que a modificação dos cenários pré-definidos para a análise gerariam, ou seja, se a modificação de fatores que não estão no grupo de 61 fatores em estudo interferiria no resultado final do procedimento. Foram estudadas modificações nas considerações de projeto (Taxa de Desconto Monetário Anual e Período de Análise) e nas considerações de tráfego (Percentual de Veículos Comerciais e da Taxa de Crescimento Anual do Tráfego)...

Avaliação de ciclo de vida na construção civil: análise de sensibilidade; Life cycle assessment in building construction: sensitivity analysis

Bueno, Cristiane
Fonte: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP Publicador: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 16/05/2014 PT
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.79%
No que toca à avaliação de sistemas construtivos, a análise dos sistemas existentes para certificação ambiental de edifícios revela que há raras ferramentas que avaliam desempenho ambiental objetiva e holisticamente por Análise do Ciclo de Vida (ACV), predominando o reconhecimento de atributos de produtos e, desta forma, perdendo-se a noção global do impacto. Dentre as principais dificuldades encontradas para o uso da ACV em sistemas construtivos, encontra-se a escassez de dados de inventário disponíveis para sistemas construtivos no cenário brasileiro, o que torna a aplicação da metodologia ainda mais complexa e demorada. Por outro lado, bancos de dados internacionais dispõem de uma quantidade considerável de informações, as quais são muitas vezes utilizadas para estudos realizados dirigindo-se ao contexto brasileiro. Assim, esta pesquisa buscou responder às seguintes questões: a) se coletados para processos idênticos, os dados disponíveis em bases de dados internacionais validadas devem levar a resultados similares àqueles obtidos por estudos baseados em dados primários coletados no contexto brasileiro?; b) As metodologias de avaliação de impacto disponíveis na atualidade são capazes de avaliar de forma completa e consistente os principais potenciais de impacto derivados do ciclo de vida de materiais de construção tradicionais? Com isso o objetivo desta pesquisa foi avaliar a sensibilidade dos resultados de um estudo comparativo de ACV à utilização de dados secundários (provenientes de bases de dados europeias) ou dados primários (coletados no contexto brasileiro)...

Rotor support stiffness estimation by sensitivity analysis

Nascimento, L. P.; Caldiron, L.
Fonte: Plapiqui(uns-conicet) Publicador: Plapiqui(uns-conicet)
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: 23-28
ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.78%
In the present work, a method for rotor support stiffness estimation via a model updating process using the sensitivity analysis is presented. This method consists in using the eigenvalues sensitivity analysis, relating to the rotor support stiffnesses variation to perform the adjustment of the model based on the minimization of the difference between eigenvalues of reference and eigenvalues obtained via mathematical model from previously adopted support bearing stiffness values. The mathematical model is developed by the finite element method and the method of adjustment should converge employing an iterative process. The performance and robustness of the method have been analyzed through a numerical example.

Analise de sensibilidade de parametros eletricos de linhas de transmissão no dominio da frequencia; Sensitivity analysis of electrical transmission line parameters in frequency domain

Michel Gonçalves Pinheiro
Fonte: Biblioteca Digital da Unicamp Publicador: Biblioteca Digital da Unicamp
Tipo: Dissertação de Mestrado Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 17/11/2005 PT
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.79%
Este trabalho apresenta uma extensa análise de sensibilidade dos parâmetros elétricos longitudinais e transversais de uma linha de transmissão trifásica em função da freqüência. Uma linha real de 440 kV foi utilizada como base para as análises. Considerando determinadas hipóteses simplificadoras, foram calculados os parâmetros elétricos da linha: resistência, indutância e capacitância no domínio da freqüência. Esses parâmetros foram apresentados em termos das parcelas das matrizes primitivas, das matrizes reduzidas e componentes modais. Na análise de sensibilidade variaram-se as seguintes características da linha: diâmetros dos cabos pára-raios, diâmetros dos condutores fase, altura dos condutores, distância horizontal entre as fases, espaçamento vertical dos sub-condutores dos feixes das fases externas. Para cada variação observou-se o comportamento dos parâmetros elétricos em função da freqüência, em termos das parcelas das matrizes primitivas e em termos dos modos. Também foi observado o fator de aterramento e foram estimados os aumentos de potência natural em função das variações realizadas. As linhas com elevada potência natural (LPNE) foram avaliadas no âmbito da análise efetivada; In this work a large sensitivity analysis of longitudinal and transversal electrical parameters of a three-phase transmission line in frequency domain was performed. An actual 440 kV transmission line was used as reference in the analysis. Considering some simplified hypothesis...

Analise de sensibilidade vibroacustica de paineis aeronauticos reforçados; Structural-acoustic sensitivity analysis of reinforced aircraft painels

Liliana Romero Cueto
Fonte: Biblioteca Digital da Unicamp Publicador: Biblioteca Digital da Unicamp
Tipo: Dissertação de Mestrado Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 30/07/2007 PT
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.83%
O comportamento de sistemas acoplados fluido-estrutura pode ser modificado pela presença de defeitos estruturais. O estudo desta modificações, usando metodos numericos de simulação, permite aos engenheiros, estimar o novo estado do sistema a partir a avaliação da variação da resposta dinâmica e vibroacustica. Desta forma, a analise de sensibilidade da resposta do sistema, permite verificar a viabilidade da aplicação das tecnicas apresentadas, em tecnicas de detecção de falhas, controle de ruido e otimização estrutural. Este trabalho apresenta um estudo do comportamento vibroacustico de paineis aeronauticos reforçados e a analise de sensibilidade da resposta, destes sistemas, na presença de falhas estruturais. È elaborado um modelo estrutural baseado na teoria de cascas e vigas que é acoplado a um meio fluido acustico interior bi e tridimensional. O metodo de Elementos Finitos é usado para a solução das equações que governam o comportamento acustico-estrutural do sistema acoplado, adotando a formulação não simetrica, com os deslocamentos e pressões como variaveis incognitas dos dominios estrutural e acustico respectivamente. São apresentadas tecnicas analiticas de analise de sensibilidade da resposta em frequencia...

Numerical study on the sensitivity analysis for strenght and stiffness of regular cellular solids

Silva, Hugo Miguel; Peixinho, Nuno; Silva, Filipe Samuel
Fonte: Interscience Publicador: Interscience
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em //2013 ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.78%
The aim of this study is to present a sensitivity analysis of geometric variables on the mechanical behavior of regular cellular solids. The cellular solids studied are named “spherical” and “elliptical”, if there is part of an empty sphere inside or if there is part of an empty revolved ellipse, respectively. Pure loads are applied separately, namely compression and shear, in order to study the influence of the variables on axial stress and axial displacement (compression) and shear stress and shear strain on shear. The sensitivity analysis is useful to establish limits for the studied variables in an optimization process and to know the influence of the variables on the results. In the case that a variable has little or no influence on the results; it must be evaluated if it is worth using it. In this work, the influence of two geometric variables, namely stacking and radius were studied for two types of regular cellular solids. The solids are composed by 7*7*7 base cells. The maximum axial stress and axial displacement were measured on compression for each model. On shear, the maximum shear stress and the maximum shear strain on the plane that is sensitive to the variation of the studied variable were taken. Three models were studied in each case. The influence of the studied geometric variables on the results are presented and discussed. It is found that all the variables have influence on the results...

Sensitivity analysis for unmeasured confounders using an electronic spreadsheet

Cabral,Maria Deolinda Borges; Luiz,Ronir Raggio
Fonte: Faculdade de Saúde Pública da Universidade de São Paulo Publicador: Faculdade de Saúde Pública da Universidade de São Paulo
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: text/html
Publicado em 01/06/2007 EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.78%
In studies assessing the effects of a given exposure variable and a specific outcome of interest, confusion may arise from the mistaken impression that the exposure variable is producing the outcome of interest, when in fact the observed effect is due to an existing confounder. However, quantitative techniques are rarely used to determine the potential influence of unmeasured confounders. Sensitivity analysis is a statistical technique that allows to quantitatively measuring the impact of an unmeasured confounding variable on the association of interest that is being assessed. The purpose of this study was to make it feasible to apply two sensitivity analysis methods available in the literature, developed by Rosenbaum and Greenland, using an electronic spreadsheet. Thus, it can be easier for researchers to include this quantitative tool in the set of procedures that have been commonly used in the stage of result validation.

Sensitivity analysis for an unmeasured confounder: a review of two independent methods

Luiz,Ronir Raggio; Cabral,Maria Deolinda Borges
Fonte: Associação Brasileira de Saúde Coletiva Publicador: Associação Brasileira de Saúde Coletiva
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: text/html
Publicado em 01/06/2010 EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.84%
One of the main purposes of epidemiological studies is to estimate causal effects. Causal inference should be addressed by observational and experimental studies. A strong constraint for the interpretation of observational studies is the possible presence of unobserved confounders (hidden biases). An approach for assessing the possible effects of unobserved confounders may be drawn up through the use of a sensitivity analysis that determines how strong the effects of an unmeasured confounder should be to explain an apparent association, and which should be the characteristics of this confounder to exhibit such an effect. The purpose of this paper is to review and integrate two independent sensitivity analysis methods. The two methods are presented to assess the impact of an unmeasured confounder variable: one developed by Greenland under an epidemiological perspective, and the other developed from a statistical standpoint by Rosenbaum. By combining (or merging) epidemiological and statistical issues, this integration became a more complete and direct sensitivity analysis, encouraging its required diffusion and additional applications. As observational studies are more subject to biases and confounding than experimental settings, the consideration of epidemiological and statistical aspects in sensitivity analysis strengthens the causal inference.

Sensitivity analysis of shallow water problems via perturbative methods

Fraidenraich,Ariel; Jacovkis,Pablo M.; Lima,Fernando Roberto de A.
Fonte: Associação Brasileira de Engenharia e Ciências Mecânicas - ABCM Publicador: Associação Brasileira de Engenharia e Ciências Mecânicas - ABCM
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: text/html
Publicado em 01/09/2006 EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.8%
We applied the perturbative theory to perform sensitivity analysis of the shallow water equations. The numerical solution of these equations was found via the mass lumping finite element technique. Then, the adjoint system of the shallow water equations was derived for the one-dimensional case and the expression of the sensitivity coefficient of a generic functional with respect to a generic parameter (Chézy resistance coefficient, solitary wave amplitude and bed channel slope) was obtained, using the differential formalism. The sensitivity of the mean functional, representing the first approximation of the velocity and the depth, was analyzed with regard to these parameters. Results of the sensitivity coefficients obtained via the perturbative methodology satisfactorily matched the values computed by the direct method, i.e., by means of the direct solution of the shallow water equations changing the values of input parameters for each case considered.

Sensitivity Analysis of the Economic Lot-Sizing Problem

Van Hoesel, Stan; Wagelmans, Albert
Fonte: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Operations Research Center Publicador: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Operations Research Center
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento Formato: 1478756 bytes; application/pdf
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.78%
In this paper we study sensitivity analysis of the uncapacitated single level economic lot-sizing problem, which was introduced by Wagner and Whitin about thirty years ago. In particular we are concerned with the computation of the maximal ranges in which the numerical problem parameters may vary individually, such that a solution already obtained remains optimal. Only recently it was discovered that faster algorithms than the Wagner-Whitin algorithm exist to solve the economic lot-sizing problem. Moreover, these algorithms reveal that the problem has more structure than was recognized so far. When performing the sensitivity analysis we exploit these newly obtained insights.

Rank-equivalence method for sensitivity analysis of an integrated model of a river catchment

Ravalico, J.; Dandy, G.; Maier, H.
Fonte: IEMSS; www Publicador: IEMSS; www
Tipo: Conference paper
Publicado em //2006 EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.81%
Integrated Assessment Modelling (IAM) incorporates knowledge from different disciplines to provide an overarching assessment of the impact of different management decisions. Integrated models generally require numerous parameters from varying sources, many not known with certainty. Rapid increases in model size and complexity, particularly in the case of integrated models for decision-making, pose new challenges for effective sensitivity analysis. Some of the identified shortcomings of existing sensitivity analysis methods in the context of IAM include: computational inefficiency, failure to assess parameter interactions, excessive data requirements (e.g. requiring parameter probability distributions), assumptions of model linearity and monotonicity and, in particular, difficulty of use in decision-making. To overcome these shortcomings, a new, rank-equivalence method of sensitivity analysis is proposed. The method operates on the assumption that model outputs will be used for ranking of management options. Where models are used for decision-making it is important to ensure that the solution is robust and that rankings will not alter with small changes in model parameters or inputs. The Rank-Equivalence method incorporates parameter bounding as well as numerical optimisation methods in order to find the minimum combined change in parameters or inputs that will result in the ranking of two management options becoming equal. This allows a translation of the set of acceptable model outcomes into a corresponding range of model inputs...

Global sensitivity analysis of fault location algorithms.

Ooi, Hoong Boon
Fonte: Universidade de Adelaide Publicador: Universidade de Adelaide
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado
Publicado em //2009
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.85%
Transmission lines of any voltage level are subject to faults. To speed up repairs and restoration of power, it is important to know where the fault is located. A fault location algorithm’s result is influenced by a series of modeling equations, setting parameters and system factors reflected in voltage and current inputs. The factors mentioned are subject to sources of uncertainty including measurement and signal processing errors, setting errors and incomplete modeling of a system under fault conditions. These errors have affected the accuracy of the distance to fault calculation. Accurate fault location reduces operating costs by avoiding lengthy and expensive patrols. Accurate fault location speeds up repairs and restoration of lines, ultimately reducing revenue loss caused by outages. In this thesis, we have reviewed the fault location algorithms and also how the uncertainty affects the results of fault location. Sensitivity analysis is able to analyze how the variation in the output of the fault location algorithms can be allocated to the variation of uncertain factors. In this research, we have used global sensitivity analysis to determine the most contributed uncertain factors and also the interaction of the uncertain factors. We have chosen Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) decomposition as our global sensitivity analysis. ANOVA decomposition shows us the insight of the fault location...

Sensitivity analysis of impedance measurement algorithms used in distance protection

Rohadi, N.; Zivanovic, R.
Fonte: IEEE; CD Publicador: IEEE; CD
Tipo: Conference paper
Publicado em //2011 EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.78%
This paper presents the methodology for Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) of impedance measurement algorithms that are used in distance protection of transmission lines. The analysis is using Quasi-Monte Carlo technique in calculating variance of the measurement error as well as parts of this variance that are contributed by uncertainty of some parameters. Specifically, fault resistance is the parameter that cannot be measured and it is treated as uncertain. Such parameters are called factors and they are represented with specific distribution function within specified domain of variation. The proposed methodology is implemented using automation of DIgSILENT and SIMLAB programs. The program in DPL scripting language of DIgSILENT is developed to automate simulation of transmission line faults when uncertain factors are varied. Each variation represents a sample in factor space. They are generated using Sobol quasirandom sequence in SIMLAB. This program also calculates variance-based sensitivity indices based on the factor space samples and corresponding simulation results obtained in DIgSILENT. To illustrate this methodology, the paper presents results of the GSA of SEL-412 impedance measurement algorithm implemented as a model in DIgSILENT.; Nanang Rohadi and Rastko Zivanovic

Interval Markov chains: performance measures and sensitivity analysis.

Teo, Mingmei
Fonte: Universidade de Adelaide Publicador: Universidade de Adelaide
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado
Publicado em //2013
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.8%
There is a vast literature on Markov chains where point estimates of transition and initial probabilities are used to calculate various performance measures. However, using these point estimates does not account for the associated uncertainty in estimate. If these point estimates are used, then the best outcome possible would be an approximate solution. Hence, it would be beneficial if there was a way to allow for some uncertainty in the parameters and to carry this through the calculations. One method of incorporating variation is to place bounds on the parameters and use these intervals rather than a single point estimate. By considering the intervals that contain point estimates, it is possible to control the amount of variation allowed. When these intervals are used in calculations, the results obtained are also intervals containing the true solution. Hence, allowing for an approximation of the result as well as a margin of error to be obtained. One of the objectives of this thesis is to develop and investigate different methods of calculating intervals for various performance measures (for example, mean hitting times and expected total costs) for Markov chains when intervals are given for the parameters instead of point estimates. We develop a numerical method for obtaining intervals for the performance measures for general unstructured interval Markov chains through the use of optimisation techniques. During this development...

Global sensitivity analysis of impedance measurement algorithms implememented in intelligent electronic devices.

Rohadi, Nanang
Fonte: Universidade de Adelaide Publicador: Universidade de Adelaide
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado
Publicado em //2013
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.84%
A novel methodology for testing performance of impedance measurement algorithms used in transmission line protection schemes is developed. Nowadays, impedance measurement algorithms are software functions implemented in the multifunction Intelligence Electronic Devices (IEDs) responsible for overall monitoring, protection and control of transmission lines. Accurate impedance measurement during fault conditions is the key in successful performance of the line protection as well as fault location functions of an IED. This thesis investigates a typical practical situation where only short-term fault records of voltage and current measurements from one side of a transmission line are used as inputs in the impedance measurement algorithm. Current flowing into the fault from the remote terminal of transmission line as well as fault impedance can influence significantly accuracy of impedance measurement. Since these two quantities are not measured, we require a systematic tool which will assess sensitivity of impedance measurement to those factors. At present, these sensitivities are obtained in heuristic and ad hoc manner during application testing done by utilities before commissioning of new IEDs. Situation in practice can be increasingly complex and this kind of unsystematic testing approach can fail. The thesis addresses those practical complex cases in the systematic manner. In these cases we encounter the following configurations of transmission lines with new not measured factors: - parallel closely spaced lines...

Algebraic sensitivity analysis of environmental models

Norton, John
Fonte: Pergamon-Elsevier Ltd Publicador: Pergamon-Elsevier Ltd
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.8%
The paper aims to demonstrate the relative ease of algebraic sensitivity analysis in many cases and to discuss its advantages and limitations in situations typical of environmental models. Sensitivity results for the operations in an equation can be combi

Sensitivity analysis for agent-based models : a low complexity test-case

Broeke, Guus ten; Voorn, George van; Ligtenberg, Arend
Fonte: Universidade Autônoma de Barcelona Publicador: Universidade Autônoma de Barcelona
Tipo: Conferência ou Objeto de Conferência Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em //2014 ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.84%
Methodologies for sensitivity analysis are considered to be of great importance for analyzing agent-based models (ABMs), even more because calibration and validation of ABMs often prove problematic. Different methodologies for sensitivity analysis may help to understand ABM dynamics and (thus) aid in the calibration and validation of ABMs. However, model complexity of ABMs is a significant hinderance for a detailed research on which (combination of) sensitivity analysis methods may provide the best option. We present here an agent-based model of low complexity to be used as test case for different methodologies of sensitivity analysis.

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS IN THE HEAT TRANSFER IN A FINNED NUCLEAR FUEL ELEMENT

Tito, M. W. C.; Lira, C. A. B. O.; Lima, F. R. A.; Baliño, J. L.
Fonte: UFPR Publicador: UFPR
Tipo: info:eu-repo/semantics/article; info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion; Peer-reviewed Article Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 08/03/2005 ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.83%
To carry out sensitivity analysis on a finned surface, the differential perturbative method is applied in a heat conduction problem within a thermal system, made up of a onedimensional circumferential fin on a nuclear fuel element. The model is described by the temperature distribution equation and the further specific boundary conditions. The adjoint system is used to determine the sensitivity coefficients for the case of interest. Both, the direct model and the resultant equations of the perturbative formalism are solved. The convective heat flow rate of the fin and the average excess temperature were the response functionals studied. The half thickness, the thermal conductivity and heat transfer coefficients, and the excess temperature at the base of the fin were the parameters of interest for the sensitivity analysis. The results obtained through the perturbative method and the direct variation had, in a general form and within acceptable physical limits, good concordance and excellent representativeness for the analyzed cases. It evidences that the differential formalism is an important tool for the sensitivity analysis and also it validates the application of the methodology in heat transmission problems on extended surfaces. The method proves to be necessary and efficient while elaborating thermal engineering projects.

Applications of response sensitivity analysis in earthquake engineering

Roth,C P; Grigoriu,M D
Fonte: Journal of the South African Institution of Civil Engineering Publicador: Journal of the South African Institution of Civil Engineering
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: text/html
Publicado em 01/10/2010 EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.83%
Response sensitivity analysis as a part of dynamic finite element structural analysis has many applications to structures of realistic scale and complexity in earthquake engineering. A demonstration project, consisting of a hospital structure and piping network, is used to demonstrate the potential applications of the method to practical problems. Nonlinear finite element analysis is done to determine displacements, stresses, etc, as well as sensitivity information by the direct differentiation method. The response sensitivity analysis is used for the identification of critical parameters of the systems, optimisation, calibration and the generation of fragility curves.

Sensitivity analysis for an unmeasured confounder: a review of two independent methods

Luiz,Ronir Raggio; Cabral,Maria Deolinda Borges
Fonte: Associação Brasileira de Pós -Graduação em Saúde Coletiva Publicador: Associação Brasileira de Pós -Graduação em Saúde Coletiva
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: text/html
Publicado em 01/06/2010 EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.84%
One of the main purposes of epidemiological studies is to estimate causal effects. Causal inference should be addressed by observational and experimental studies. A strong constraint for the interpretation of observational studies is the possible presence of unobserved confounders (hidden biases). An approach for assessing the possible effects of unobserved confounders may be drawn up through the use of a sensitivity analysis that determines how strong the effects of an unmeasured confounder should be to explain an apparent association, and which should be the characteristics of this confounder to exhibit such an effect. The purpose of this paper is to review and integrate two independent sensitivity analysis methods. The two methods are presented to assess the impact of an unmeasured confounder variable: one developed by Greenland under an epidemiological perspective, and the other developed from a statistical standpoint by Rosenbaum. By combining (or merging) epidemiological and statistical issues, this integration became a more complete and direct sensitivity analysis, encouraging its required diffusion and additional applications. As observational studies are more subject to biases and confounding than experimental settings, the consideration of epidemiological and statistical aspects in sensitivity analysis strengthens the causal inference.