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A DYNAMIC FRAMEWORK FOR THE RELATIONS BETWEEN FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES, SAVINGS AND INVESTMENTS

Yang, Jie (Stephan)
Fonte: Brock University Publicador: Brock University
Tipo: Electronic Thesis or Dissertation
ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.84%
The Meese-Rogoff forecasting puzzle states that foreign exchange (FX) rates are unpredictable. Since one country’s macroeconomic conditions could affect the price of its national currency, we study the dynamic relations between the FX rates and some macroeconomic accounts. Our research tests whether the predictability of the FX rates could be improved through the advanced econometrics. Improving the predictability of the FX rates has important implications for various groups including investors, business entities and the government. The present thesis examines the dynamic relations between the FX rates, savings and investments for a sample of 25 countries from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. We apply quarterly data of FX rates, macroeconomic indices and accounts including the savings and the investments over three decades. Through preliminary Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root tests and Johansen cointegration tests, we found that the savings rate and the investment rate are cointegrated with the vector (1,-1). This result is consistent with many previous studies on the savings-investment relations and therefore confirms the validity of the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle. Because of the special cointegrating relation between the savings rate and investment rate...

Empirical Analysis of Corporate Savings in Egypt

Love, Inessa
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.89%
This paper presents empirical analysis of corporate savings in Egypt using two datasets: a survey of small and medium enterprises and data from accounting statements for the largest publicly traded firms. There are two main findings. First, larger firms invest more (they have more physical saving) and have greater access to finance than smaller firms. Second, despite the financial deepening, the use of credit products has been declining during the past decade. The study reaffirms the importance of improving access to financial services in Egypt and points out the need for more research. In addition, policies aimed at reducing macroeconomic volatility are likely to result in increased investment and growth in Egypt.

Valuation of Time Savings

Mackie, Peter; Nellthorp, John; Laird, James
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.84%
This note has been drawn from a number of texts including "The Value of Time In Economic Evaluation of Transport Projects" (Gwilliam, 1997), "Values of Travel Time Savings in the UK - Summary and Conclusions" (Mackie et al, 2003), and "The Value of Time in least Developed Countries" (IT Transport, 2002). The conceptual basis for valuing time is discussed in Section 1. Sections 2 and 3 discuss the theoretical basis for valuing work time savings and non-work time savings respectively, while Sections 4 and 5 discuss the value of time savings to buses, and to freight. The treatment of small time savings are presented in Sections 6 and 7. Section 8 sets out the manner that disparities between regions for values of time should be treated within the cost benefit analysis, and the use of standard values of time. Section 9 summarizes the practical methodologies that should be used for the estimation of travel time savings, while Section 10 summarizes the key recommendations of this note.

Turkey - Country Economic Memorandum (CEM) : Sustaining High Growth - The Role of Domestic savings : Synthesis Report

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.99%
Domestic savings in Turkey declined significantly in the 2000s. The domestic savings rate declined from an average of 23.5 percent of gross national income in the 1990s to an average of 17 percent over the 2000-2008 period, and further to 12.7 percent in 2010. This decline was driven by the sharp fall in private saving, while public saving increased through most of the period. A strong fiscal adjustment underpinned the improvement in public savings in the post-2001 period. The adjustment was pursued to correct the fiscal expansion of the previous decade, and it led to a sharp reduction in the public debt to gross domestic product (GDP) ratio. This improved the public saving-investment balance and helped reduce the vulnerability of the economy to external shocks. With an expected increase in future investment needs, continued fiscal discipline will be vital for sustainable growth. The fall in private savings after 2001 was mostly a result of the decline in macroeconomic vulnerabilities. While the economy was growing fast...

Contractual Savings in Countries with a Small Financial Sector

Impavido, Gregorio; Musalem, Alberto R.; Vittas, Dimitri
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, D.C. Publicador: World Bank, Washington, D.C.
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.87%
Countries with small financial systems are generally small economies with a reduced dimension of institutional relationships, a greater concentration of wealth, and a relatively less independent civil service. These characteristics facilitate concentration of functions and, more generally, weak governance. Only small economies with a relatively high level of per capita income, minimum core of sound banks and insurance companies, sound and credible macroeconomic policies, and open capital accounts can benefit from the development of contractual savings. This can increase the options to obtain sound coverage against contingencies, increase the supply of long term savings, promote financial deepening, and improve financial risk management.

Solow in Transition : Macro and Micro Determinants of Savings in Armenia

Coulibaly, Souleymane; Diaby, Mohamed
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.95%
This paper analyzes and reconciles macro and micro evidence on savings and factors that affect savings, as well as possible policy implications. At the aggregate level, the main question is how savings are affected by growth and macroeconomic policies and variables (fiscal policy, exchange rate, for example) and the breadth of financial markets. Some of these macro determinants can be reconciled with microeconomic evidence of the savings behavior of households. Using macroeconomic quarterly data and household survey data, the analysis explores the determinants of the savings rate at the macroeconomic and microeconomic levels, using the typical econometric models used in the literature (long-term co-integration relation and short-term error correction model for the macro determinants; linear multivariate models for the micro determinants). The long-term relationship indicates that a 10-percent increase in gross domestic product per capita would add 3.7 percentage points to the savings rate in the long run. The short-term relationship depicts a strong catch-up process to the long-run equilibrium...

Contractual Savings, Stock, and Asset Markets

Impavido, Gregorio; Musalem, Alberto R.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.97%
The authors study the relationship between the development of insurance, and contractual savings, (the assets and portfolio composition of pension funds, and life and non-life insurance companies) and the development of stock markets (market capitalization and value traded). Their contribution lies in providing cross-country, and time-series on a hypothesis that is very popular - but had not been substantiated - among supporters of funded pension systems, and insurance in which reserves are largely invested in tradable securities (equities and bonds). The authors present a three-assets model (money, quasi money, and shares) to study the effects of the development of contractual savings (pension funds and life insurance companies) and non-life insurance companies on assets market equilibrium, and on stock market development. They use an unbalanced panel of 21 OECD, and 5 developing countries, and an error components two-stage least squares (EC2SLS) estimator, including a test for endogeneity of these institutional investors. The results support the hypothesis that contractual savings...

Savings and the Terms of Trade under Borrowing Constraints

Agenor, Pierre-Richard; Aizenman, Joshua
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.84%
The authors examine the extent to which permanent terms-of-trade shocks have an asymmetric effect on private savings. Using a simple three-period model, they show that if households expect to face binding constraints on borrowing in bad states of nature (when the economy is in a long trough rather than a sharp peak). Savings rates will respond asymmetrically to favorable movements in the permanent component of the terms of trade - in contrast with the predictions of conventional consumption-smoothing models. They test the asymmetric effects of terms-of-trade disturbances using an econometric model that controls for various standard determinants of private savings. The results - based on panel data for non-oil commodity exporters of Sub-Saharan Africa for 1980-96 (a group of countries for which movements in the terms of trade have traditionally represented a key source of macroeconomic shocks) - indicate that increases in the permanent component of the terms of trade (measured using three alternative filtering techniques) indeed tend to be associated with higher rates of private savings.

Contractual Savings or Stock Market Development—Which Leads?

Catalan, Mario; Impavido, Gregorio; Musalem, Alberto R.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.87%
The authors study the relationship between the development of contractual savings (assets of pension funds, and life insurance companies) and non-life insurance, and, the development of stock markets (market capitalization and value traded). Their contribution lies in providing time-series evidence on a hypothesis that is very popular - but had not been substantiated - among supporters of fully funded pension systems in which funds invest large shares of their portfolios in tradable securities (equities, bonds). The literature is not clear on its assumption regarding causality between contractual savings, and capital market development. A one-way or two-way relationship is assumed, usually inter-changeably; the authors address the questions of which leads empirically. They present the evidence, including descriptive statistics, and the results of Granger causality tests, for OECD countries, and such countries as Chile, Malaysia, Singapore, South Africa, and Thailand. They do not present a theoretical framework, but do explain how the growth of the contractual savings sector, is thought to promote financial development. The authors find evidence in the data that causality between institutions, and markets either does not exist, or, if it exists...

The Savings Collapse during the Transition in Eastern Europe

Denizer, Cevdet; Wolf, Holger C.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.95%
The authors assess the presence and extent of involuntary savings by comparing the predicted savings rates of market economies with those of the pre-transition economies. On balance, predicted savings rates fell short of actual savings rates, especially for the former Soviet Union and the Baltics -- providing some support for the notion of excessive pre-transition savings. Comparing the savings behavior of market economies and transition economies, they found substantial similarities, except for a negative link between savings and GDP growth. As the fastest-growing transition economies are at the bottom of the adjustment J-curve, the finding is consistent with consumption smoothing. Finally, they explored whether differences in the extent of economic liberalization affected savings rates in the cross-section of transition economies. They found that liberalization is associated with lower savings, with a one-year lag. To the extent that liberalization is perceived as an indicator of likely future growth, this behavior is consistent with smoothing in the face of a J-curve change in output.

Managing Risk with Insurance and Savings : Experimental Evidence for Male and Female Farm Managers in the Sahel

Delavallade, Clara; Dizon, Felipe; Vargas Hill, Ruth; Petraud, Jean Paul
Fonte: World Bank Group, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank Group, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.89%
Although there is fast-growing policy interest in offering financial products to help rural households manage risk, the literature is still scant as to which products are the most effective. This paper uses a randomized field experiment in Senegal and Burkina Faso to compare male and female farmers who are offered index-based agricultural insurance with those who are offered a variety of savings instruments. The paper finds that female farm managers were less likely to purchase agricultural insurance and more likely to invest in savings for emergencies, even controlling for access to informal insurance and differences in crop choice. It is hypothesized that this finding results from the fact that, although men and women are equally exposed to yield risk, women face additional sources of lifecycle risk -- particularly health risks associated with fertility and childcare -- that men do not. In essence, the basis risk associated with agricultural insurance products is higher for women. Purchasing insurance increased input spending and use more than savings. Those who purchased more insurance realized higher average yields and were better able to manage food insecurity and shocks. This finding suggests that gender differences in demand for financial products can have an impact on productivity...

Commitment Savings Accounts in Malawi

International Finance Corporation
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.95%
Malawi s economy is heavily dependent on agriculture, especially tobacco, which comprises a majority of the country s exports. Tobacco farmers have one harvest a year, and while their income stream occurs over several months it must last them for the entire year, making it difficult to smooth consumption throughout the year. The objective of this case study is to present the design and implementation of a commitment savings product for groups of tobacco farmers in Malawi. The product was successful in encouraging savings, increasing input purchases and yields for the next year s harvest, and increasing consumption after the harvest. The following sections describe the lack of formal savings options for rural farmers, the behavioral concept behind commitment savings accounts, the product designed to address these problems and subsequent changes to the original design, results of a field experiment evaluating the product, and lessons learned for other commitment savings products.

Weather Insurance Savings Accounts

Stein, Daniel; Tobacman, Jeremy
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.87%
Better insurance against rainfall risk could improve the security of hundreds of millions of agricultural households around the world. However, customers have shown little demand for stand-alone insurance products. This paper theoretically and experimentally analyzes an innovative financial product called a Weather Insurance Savings Account (WISA), which combines savings and rainfall insurance. The paper uses a standard model of intertemporal insurance demand to study how customers demand for a WISA varies with the amount of insurance offered. A laboratory experiment is then used to elicit participants valuations of pure insurance, pure savings, and intermediate WISA types. Contrary to the standard model, within-subjects comparisons show that many participants prefer both pure insurance and pure savings to any interior mixture of the two, suggesting that market demand for a WISA is likely to be low. Additional experimental and observational evidence distinguishes between several alternative explanations. One possibility that survives the additional tests is diminishing sensitivity to losses...

Household Savings in Transition Economies

Denizer, Cevdet; Wolf, Holger C.; Ying, Yvonne
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.92%
During the transition from central planning to market economies now under way in Eastern Europe, output levels first collapsed by 40 to 50 percent in most countries, then staged a modest recovery in the last two years. Longer-term revival of growth requires a resumption of investment and thus, realistically, of domestic savings. To explore the determinants of household savings rates in transition economies, the authors studies matching household surveys for three Central European economies: Bulgaria, Hungary, and Poland. They find that savings rates strongly increase with relative income, suggesting that increasing income inequality may play a role in determining savings rates. Savings rates are significantly higher for households that do not own their homes or that own few of the standard consumer durables - possibly because, with no retail credit or mortgage markets, households must save to purchase houses and durables. The influence of demographic factors broadly matches earlier findings for developing countries. Perhaps surprisingly...

The Impact of Contractual Savings Institutions on Securities Markets

Impavido, Gregorio; Musalem, Alberto R.; Tressel, Thierry
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.87%
The authors assess empirically the impact of contractual savings institutions portfolios (pension funds and life insurance companies) on securities markets, for example, depth and liquidity in the domestic stock market, and depth in the domestic bond market. They discuss how the institutionalization of savings can modify financial markets through the lengthening of securities' maturities. The results are the following: 1) An increase in assets of contractual savings institutions relative to domestic financial assets has a positive impact on the depth of stock and bond markets on average. 2) The impact on stock market depth and liquidity is nonlinear: it is stronger in countries where corporate information is more transparent. 3) There is evidence of a significant heterogeneity among countries: contractual savings have a stronger impact on securities markets in countries where the financial system is market based, pension fund contributions are mandatory, and international transactions in securities are lower. 4) The authors do not find that the impact of contractual savings institutions on securities markets is explained by the overall level of development...

Mexico - Rural Finance : Savings Mobilization Potential and Deposit Instruments in Marginal Areas

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.92%
The specific objectives of this study are to document, and analyze the extent, and modalities of savings practiced by rural households, and enterprises, identifying the factors that limit, and help explain rural savings in financial form, on the demand, and supply sides, as well as setting forth guidelines for pilot interventions aimed at expanding sustainable savings mobilization in rural areas. The study focuses on the areas classified as marginal in the Oaxaca, and Huasteca regions, where activities were carried out on household surveys, and on interviews with formal, and informal providers of financial services, in addition to a review of savings mobilization. Following Chapter I, an overview of findings, and conclusions, Chapter II provides insights on current thinking in the matter of savings and the poor, and, relates these developments with the main government policies, and programs that focus on the rural sector. Chapter III characterizes the supply of financial services in Mexico, and in particular, in the marginal areas covered by the study. Household savings practices...

The Impact of Commitment Savings Accounts : The Case of Malawi

Gine, Xavier
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Brief; Publications & Research
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.89%
In order to understand the impact of facilitating access to savings accounts and to examine the importance of these barriers for formal savings, author designed a field experiment among smallholder cash crop farmers in Malawi. In partnership with a local microfinance institution, author randomized offers of account-opening and deposit assistance for formal savings accounts. In order to test the importance of individual self-control problems or pressure to share resources with others in the social network, treated farmers were randomly assigned to one of two types of savings interventions. The first group was offered an 'ordinary' bank account with standard features. The second group was offered the ordinary account as well as a 'commitment' savings account.

Kenya's Mobile Revolution and the Promise of Mobile Savings

Demombynes, Gabriel; Thegeya, Aaron
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.91%
The mobile revolution has transformed the lives of Kenyans, providing not just communications but also basic financial access in the form of phone-based money transfer and storage, led by the M-PESA system introduced in 2007. Currently, 93 percent of Kenyans are mobile phone users and 73 percent are mobile money customers. Additionally, 23 percent use mobile money at least once a day. New potential for mobile money has come with the rise of interest-earning bank-integrated mobile savings systems, beginning with the launch of the M-KESHO system in March 2010. The authors examine the mobile savings phenomenon, using data collected in a special survey in late 2010. They show that the usage of bank-integrated mobile savings systems like M-KESHO remains limited and largely restricted to better-off Kenyans. However, what the authors term "basic mobile savings" -- the use of simple mobile money systems as a repository for funds -- is widespread, including among those who are otherwise unlikely to have any savings. Holding other characteristics constant...

Contractual Savings Institutions and Banks' Stability and Efficiency

Impavido, Gregorio; Musalem, Alberto R.; Tressel, Thierry
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.87%
The authors analyze the relationship between the development of contractual savings institutions and banks' efficiency, credit, and liquidity risks. They discuss the potential mechanisms through which the development of contractual savings institutions may affect the banking sector. They show that the development of contractual savings institutions has a significant impact on bank spreads and loan maturity. After controlling for banks' characteristics, macroeconomic factors, and more standard indicators of financial development, they show that the development of contractual savings institutions is associated with increased efficiency of the banking system and greater resilience to credit and liquidity risks.

Contractual Savings, Capital Markets, and Firms' Financing Choices

Impavido, Gregorio; Musalem, Alberto R.; Tressel, Thierry
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.87%
The authors analyze the relationship between the development and asset allocation of contractual savings and firms' capital structures. The authors develop a simple model of firms' leverage and debt maturity decisions. They illustrate the mechanisms through which contractual savings development may affect corporate financing patterns. In the empirical section, the authors show that the development and asset allocation of contractual savings have an independent impact on firms' financing choices. Different channels are identified. In market-based economies, an increase in the proportion of shares in the portfolio of contractual savings leads to a decline in firms' leverage. In bank-based economies, instead, an increase in the size of contractual savings is associated with an increase in leverage and debt maturity in the corporate sector