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Housing price dynamics and household mobility decisions

Seslen, Tracey Nicole, 1977-
Fonte: Massachusetts Institute of Technology Publicador: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado Formato: 104, [1] p.
ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
55.87%
The first chapter attempts to shed light on the role of housing price dynamics in mobility decisions, asking whether households respond to prices in a forward- or backward-looking manner, and the extent to which high leverage constrains moving behavior. On a broader level, the study tests whether price dynamics dominate non-market shocks as a force governing household mobility, given the importance of housing as an investment good and saving device. Using a 13 year sample from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, I find that households are largely backward-looking in both their mobility and consumption decisions, and that non-market shocks play a significant role. Households show little or no response to equity constraints, and do not appear to time the market, despite significant forecastability in housing prices. These conclusions lend support to the notion of prices leading trading volume, but do not support the theoretical work of Stein (1995), which attributes mobility behavior to changes in equity constraints brought about by changes in housing prices. The second chapter uses data from the Retirement History Survey to measure the impact of property tax abatement programs on elderly homeownership decisions. Analysis using a competing risks framework...

The Crisis Hits Home : Stress-Testing Households in Europe and Central Asia

Tiongson, Erwin R.; Sugawara, Naotaka; Sulla, Victor; Taylor, Ashley; Gueorguieva, Anna I.; Levin, Victoria; Subbarao, Kalanidhi
Fonte: World Bank Publicador: World Bank
Relevância na Pesquisa
45.82%
The Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region has been hit by a crisis on multiple fronts. Countries in ECA are facing major, interrelated, external macro-financial shocks. The first is the global growth slowdown leading to falling export market demand. In addition, the prospects for inflows of remittances to low-income countries have been downgraded as economic activity in migrant host countries has declined. The second is the financial deleveraging by major banks and other financial institutions in developed economies, which has markedly reduced the availability, and increased the cost, of external finance across public, corporate, and financial sectors. The third is the recent commodity price changes, which have involved a reversal of much of the commodity price boom of 2007 and 2008. The main objective of the study is to understand the impact of these macroeconomic shocks on household well-being. In particular, it seeks to understand the key macroeconomic shocks confronted by the region and the impact of such shocks on household welfare...

Food, Financial Crises, and Complex Derivatives : A Tale of High Stakes Innovation and Diversification

Songwe, Vera
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Relevância na Pesquisa
45.94%
The 2008 food price crisis was an integral part of the financial crisis. In fact, the food price crisis was the second crisis in a chain of events that began in 2007 with the mortgage crisis, and culminated in the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. Contrary to what was generally believed in 2008, developing countries, particularly food-importing countries, were part of the early wave of the financial crisis via food price increases, and later suffered another wave via the real sector. The events leading up to the food crisis were global and complex in nature. As a result, as the G-20 discusses solutions to the financial crisis, any new framework must include developing countries, especially low-income countries. In addition, developing countries, especially in Africa, must pay close attention to the work of the Financial Stability Board (FSB) and its recommendations on financial market reform, and over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives in particular, because these reforms will have important consequences for their housing...

Severity of the Crisis and its Transmission Channels

Calderon, Cesar; Didier, Tatiana
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Relevância na Pesquisa
55.68%
The current global crisis, although initially circumscribed to the US housing market, spread rapidly across markets and borders. It has affected almost all countries through different reinforcing channels: the contraction in international trade, capital flows, remittances, and international commodity prices. The main goal of this note is to empirically analyze the mechanisms through which the financial crisis of 2007-2009 propagated throughout the world by characterizing the main factors behind the fall in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rates. The findings indicate that a greater decline in the growth rate was registered in countries with higher de facto trade openness, less resilient domestic financial markets, and, to a lesser extent, improved macroeconomic frameworks. To complement this evidence, we construct an aggregate index of the severity of the crisis that captures the real and financial consequences in each country of this unprecedented global financial shock.

A Retrospective Analysis of the House Prices Macro-Relationship in the United States

Ahamada, Ibrahim; Diaz Sanchez, Jose Luis
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
45.95%
This study provides empirical evidence on the strengthening of the impact of house prices on the US macroeconomy. The stability of the house prices macro-link is tested in a small-dimensional vector autoregressive model over the last fifty years. The estimated break-points are used to split the sample into different segments and a multivariate time series analysis is performed within subsamples. The paper finds a robust structural break in the mid-1980s. In addition, time series analysis across segments provides evidence that the effect of house prices, not only on private consumption, but also on economic activity, has intensified since the mid-1980s.

Urbanization and Housing Investment

Dasgupta, Basab; Lall, Somik V.; Lozano-Gracia, Nancy
Fonte: World Bank Group, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank Group, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
55.87%
This paper provides the first systematic empirical assessment of the pace at which housing investment has responded to rising demand from urbanization. The assessment used National Accounts Statistics to build a data set of residential housing investment for more than 90 countries. The data set explicitly accounts for investment by households, the government, and the private sector. The analysis finds that housing investment follows an S-shaped trajectory taking off around per capita GDP of about $3,000 (US$2005) and tapering down at per capita GDP around $36,000 (US$2005). The analysis also finds that between 2001 and 2011, housing investment in low-income economies averaged 4.56 percent of gross domestic product and 9.12 percent in upper-middle-income economies. An important finding is that countries in Sub-Saharan Africa have housing elasticities similar to comparable low-income and lower-middle-income economies. In financing housing investment, the paper finds that developing countries tend to rely much more on domestic savings and government debt...

The rental equivalence approach to nonrental housing in the consumer price index. evidence from Spain

Arévalo, Raquel; Ruiz-Castillo, Javier
Fonte: Universidade Carlos III de Madrid Publicador: Universidade Carlos III de Madrid
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em /02/2004 ENG; ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
55.82%
This paper presents new evidence from Spain that challenges the usual objections to the possibility of applying the rental equivalent approach to determine the weight that non-rental housing services should have in the CPI. Data from the EPFs (Encuestas de Presupuestos Familiares) for 1980-81 and 1990-91 permit a satisfactory explanation of market rents in terms of an index of housing quality, two geographical variables and the year of occupancy. These regression results provide a way to impute a rental value to non-rental housing units that takes into account the possible selection bias induced by systematic differences in housing characteristics between the market rental sector and the non-rental stock. On average, such hedonic values are not that different from the self-imputations provided in the EPFs by the occupants of such dwellings. Therefore, the consequences for inflation of using either of the two alternatives to assess the importance of non-rental housing in the CPI system are small. Instead, if non-rental housing services are dropped from the CPI, then it is estimated that the bias in the measurement of inflation during the 1995-2000 period would be 0.35% per year. The lesson is that, given the alternatives, eliminating non-rental housing services from the CPI -as is done at present in Spain and several other European countries- is an unnecessarily crude form of dealing with a difficult problem

Spanish housing markets during the first phase of the rural-urban transition process

Carmona, Juan; Lampe, Markus; Rosés, Joan R.
Fonte: Universidade Carlos III de Madrid Publicador: Universidade Carlos III de Madrid
Tipo: info:eu-repo/semantics/draft; info:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaper Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em /07/2011 ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
55.77%
This paper discusses how Spain’s housing markets reacted to the far-reaching changes that affected the demand for dwellings during the first phase of the rural-urban transition process. To this end, we construct a new hedonic index of real housing prices and assemble a cross-regional panel dataset of price fundamentals. The results of our econometric analysis suggest that housing markets did not face supply constraints, responded swiftly to the growing demand for accommodation and were efficient. In light of this new evidence, we conclude that housing markets were not a burden for Spanish economic development and that Spain’s institutional and regulatory frameworks were suitable for the housing needs at the time.

Housing markets during the rural-urban transition : evidence from early 20th century Spain

Carmona, Juan; Lampe, Markus; Rosés, Joan R.
Fonte: Universidade Carlos III de Madrid Publicador: Universidade Carlos III de Madrid
Tipo: info:eu-repo/semantics/draft; info:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaper Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em /10/2012 ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
55.77%
This paper discusses how Spain’s urban housing markets reacted to the farreaching changes that affected the demand for dwellings during the first phase of the rural-urban transition process. To this end, we construct a new hedonic index of real housing prices and assemble a cross-regional panel dataset of price fundamentals. The results of our econometric analysis suggest that urban housing markets did not face supply constraints and responded swiftly to the growing demand for accommodation. In light of this new evidence, we conclude that housing markets were not a burden for Spanish economic development and that Spain’s urban infrastructure and institutional framework and were suitable for the housing needs at the time; The authors acknowledge financial support from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation projects “Consolidating Economics” within the Consolider-Ingenio 2010 Program. Rosés also acknowledges support from the project ECO2009-13331-C02-01. Lampe thanks project ECO2011-25713.

Housing affordability during the urban transition in Spain

Carmona, Juan; Lampe, Markus; Rosés, Joan R.
Fonte: Universidade Carlos III de Madrid Publicador: Universidade Carlos III de Madrid
Tipo: info:eu-repo/semantics/draft; info:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaper
Publicado em 01/09/2014 ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
55.78%
During the decades previous to the Civil War, Spain experienced a rapid process of urbanization, which was accompanied by the demographic transition and sizeable rural-urban migrations. This article investigates how urban housing markets reacted to these far-reaching changes that increased demand for dwellings. To this end, we employ a new hedonic index of real housing prices and construct a cross-regional panel dataset of rents and housing price fundamentals. This new evidence indicates that rents were not a significant financial burden on low-income families and, hence, housing was affordable for working classes. Also, we show that families' access to new homes was facilitated by a sizable growth of housing supply. Substantial investments in urban infrastructure and the institutional framework enabled the construction of new homes at affordable prices. Our results suggest that housing problems were not pervasive during the urban transition as the literature often seems to claim.; Financial support was received by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness projects: 2013/00066/001 (Juan Carmona), ECO2011-25713 (Markus Lampe) and ECO2012-39169-C03-01 (Joan R. Rosés).

Domestic Terms of Trade in Pakistan : Implications for Agricultural Pricing and Taxation Policies

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Other Agricultural Study; Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
45.83%
In 2008 the Government of Pakistan agreed with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to increase the tax/Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ratio by 3.5 percentage points over the medium term. This commitment has rekindled the debate regarding the agricultural income tax. Advocates of an agricultural income tax argue that the sector remains protected by political interests, while opponents to such a tax maintain that agriculture is already subject to significant indirect taxation, mainly because of prevailing price distortions in agricultural product markets. This paper reviews the literature on domestic terms of trade analysis in Pakistan and calculates an updated set of terms of trade indices for agriculture relative to industry. The paper also discusses key issues with regard to the imposition of agricultural income tax in Pakistan, and uses simulation results from a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model for the Pakistan economy to analyze the potential effects of the imposition of an agricultural income tax on poverty and fiscal revenues. The results suggest that the domestic terms of trade have remained unfavorable for Pakistan's agriculture during almost the entire 2000-2009 period. Agriculture's terms of trade declined from 2001-02 to 2003-04 before improving only slightly during the period from 2004-05 to 2006-07. As of 2007 however...

Financial Sector Assessment Program Update : Republic of Poland - Credit, Growth, and Financial Stability

World Bank; International Monetary Fund
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP); Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
45.85%
Two main issues at the interface between economic growth and financial stability are germane to this year's article four consultation and the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) update: the first is why the recent pace of financial catching-up has been so much slower in Poland than in its regional peers, and whether this might hamper Poland's long-term economic prospects; and the second question is how significant the prudential risks associated with rapid growth in housing loans are. The chapter is organized as follows: section II.B discusses credit developments in the last decade and factors driving these developments and assesses implications for economic growth. Section II.C examines reasons for rapid growth of foreign currency lending and implications for financial stability. Section II.D (and appendix) review cross-country experiences with policy responses to rapid credit growth of foreign currency credit and discuss recent policy measures taken in Poland. Section II.E concludes the chapter.

How the Republic of Korea's Financial Structure Affects the Volatility of Four Asset Prices

Hong G. Min; Park, Jong-goo
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Working Paper; Publications & Research; Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
45.92%
The authors explore how Koreas financial structure affects the volatility of asset prices. Documented empirical evidence of the relationship between financial structure and financial crisis, sheds light on the relationship between asset price volatility - extreme variations in price - and financial structure. And the volatility of financial and non-financial asset prices provides an indirect link between an economys financial structure and the likelihood of financial crisis. Using time-series data on a se of indicators measuring financial structure, the authors examine how Koreas financial structure affects the volatility of the real effective exchange rate, the money market rate, government bond yields, and stock prices. They find: 1) There is a stable long-term relationship between financial structure and volatility in the real effective exchange rate, the money market rate, stock prices, and the yield on government housing bonds. 2) Financial structure affects asset price variables asymmetrically. Some variables volatility increases...

Kyrgyz Republic - Profile and Dynamics of Poverty and Inequality, 2009

World Bank
Fonte: World Bank Publicador: World Bank
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Other Poverty Study
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
55.86%
Poverty reduction is an important goal for governments of many developing countries. This goal is synonymous with economic development and achieving a higher quality of life for all population groups. Thus, monitoring the dynamics of poverty and inequality is implicit in the monitoring of progress in societal development. As the vast literature shows, development progress to a large extent depends on economic and social policies and economic growth. Thus, identifying the relationship between relevant economic variables and poverty and inequality indicators may provide policy guidance on what has furthered the country's progress. The report consists of two main parts. The first part discusses poverty and inequality for 2009 and, thus, from a static perceptive. So, the first section describes and discusses the main features and correlates of the poor. The goal is to provide a brief overview of poverty in the Kyrgyz Republic and describe the characteristics of households and the poor. This is achieved by considering the poverty incidence among households and individuals differentiated by such characteristics as age...

Handbook on Residential Property Prices Indices

Eurostat
Fonte: Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union Publicador: Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
45.83%
Residential property is both a source of wealth and, insofar as property owners live in or on their property, an important determining factor in their cost of living. The price of a house is something different from the cost of dwelling services it provides, though the two concepts are obviously interlinked. The need for property price indices that are fit-for-purpose was recognized at a conference organized jointly by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) in Washington DC, October 2003. As a result, a chapter on residential property price indices was added to the IMF's "compilation guide of financial soundness indicators". The idea of a more detailed handbook dates back to a workshop organized by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the IMF on real estate price indices in Paris, November 2006. The aim of this handbook is to facilitate the setting-up of residential property price indices in countries where these are still missing and the improvement of existing price indices where this is deemed necessary. It is designed to give practical guidance on the compilation of house price indices...

Rent Imputation for Welfare Measurement : A Review of Methodologies and Empirical Findings

Balcazar, Carlos Felipe; Ceriani, Lidia; Olivieri, Sergio; Ranzani, Marco
Fonte: World Bank Group, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank Group, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
45.92%
As well acknowledged in the literature, housing is often the dominant consumption good for most households. As such, it should be included in a comprehensive welfare aggregate to measure people's living standards accurately. However, assigning a value to the flow of the dwelling for homeowners and nonmarket tenants is problematic. Over the last decades several estimation techniques have been proposed and implemented by practitioners covering from very simple to sophisticated approaches. This paper provides an extensive review of different methods to impute rent, commonly used for welfare analysis. It also gives an overview of how this problem has been addressed by other economic domains, namely national accounts, price indices, purchasing power parities, and taxation. Finally, after setting up a theoretical framework, the paper summarizes the empirical findings about the distributional impact of including imputed rents in welfare aggregates.

Multiple asset class investing : equilibrium asset pricing evaluation of real estate risk and return across four quadrants; Equilibrium asset pricing evaluation of real estate risk and return across four quadrants

Li, Nan, 1972-; Price, Steven McKay
Fonte: Massachusetts Institute of Technology Publicador: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado Formato: 68 leaves; 338455 bytes; 338262 bytes; application/pdf; application/pdf
ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
55.83%
The major objective of this study is to test equilibrium asset pricing models with respect to how well they price risk across multiple asset classes; including the four quadrants of real estate. While using the Geltner (1999) paper as a springboard for our approach, this thesis both updates Professor Geltner's earlier work and extends its scope through the testing of additional models and asset classes. Using historical data to derive beta estimates, we empirically test several variations of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). These variations include the traditional, single-beta, Sharpe-Lintner CAPM, as well as the multi-beta, Fama-French CAPM. For the single-factor formula we explore the use of two different market portfolio proxies, the S&P 500 Index and the National Wealth Portfolio (NWP). We also apply the single-factor formula to a non-wealth based, consumption oriented approach. Test results show the NWP based CAPM to be the strongest model, being both robust and statistically significant in its pricing of asset volatility. When using the traditional S&P 500 index as the market proxy, the basic CAPM performs surprisingly well, though not as well as the NWP version. The multi-beta Fama-French model explains a large amount of price variation...

Rent adjustment mechanism for the multifamily housing market

Yun, Lee-Young, 1976-
Fonte: Massachusetts Institute of Technology Publicador: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado Formato: 47, [6] leaves; 2371440 bytes; 2371248 bytes; application/pdf; application/pdf
ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
55.64%
This study has analyzed the rent adjustment mechanism for the multifamily rental housing in the US during the period 1993-2003 for twenty-four US metropolitan areas. The rent adjustment model employed incorporates the principal argument of search theory that vacancy ultimately determines rent levels. Various time lags on the vacancy rate are tested for each metropolitan area in order to better understand the timing of the effect of the vacancy rate on market rents and to find the best fitting model for each metropolitan area. Two kinds of rents are analyzed : the CPI (Consumer Price Index), 'sitting tenant rent' actually paid by the tenants, and MPF (Market Product Fact), the 'asking rent' for the vacant unit. The results of this study clearly indicate that the rent adjustment models under study explain the MPF rent adjustment mechanism better than the CPI rent adjustment model. Chaning the vacancy lag does not improve the CPI rent adjustment mechanism. The results of this study suggest further studies to explore the behaviors of lessors and lessees to explain why CPI rents behaves as they do. The findings identified through this research provide a helpful basis for advancing an improved theoretical and empirical formulation that highlights the complexities of the rent adjustment process. From a practical point of view...

Daily House Price Indexes: Volatility Dynamics and Longer-Run Predictions

Wang, Wenjing
Fonte: Universidade Duke Publicador: Universidade Duke
Tipo: Dissertação
Publicado em //2014
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.14%

This dissertation presents the construction procedure of “high-frequency” daily measure of changes in housing valuations, and analyzes its return dynamics, as well as investigates its relationship to capital markets. The dissertation consists of three chapters. The first chapter introduces the house price index methodologies and housing transaction data, and reviews the related literature. The second chapter shows the construction and modeling of daily house price indexes and highlights the informational advantage of the daily indexes. The final chapter provides detailed empirical and theoretical investigations of housing index return volatilities.

Chapter 2 discusses the relationship of the housing market with the other markets, such as consumer good market and financial markets. Different housing price indexes and their construction methodologies are introduced, with emphases on the repeat sales model and S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Index. A detailed description of the housing transaction data I use in the dissertation is also provided in this chapter.

Chapter 3 is co-authored with Professor Tim Bollerslev and Professor Andrew Patton. We construct daily house price indexes for ten major U.S. metropolitan areas. Our calculations are based on a comprehensive database of several million residential property transactions and a standard repeat-sales method that closely mimics the procedure used in the construction of the popular monthly Case-Shiller house price indexes. Our new daily house price indexes exhibit dynamic features similar to those of other daily asset prices...

Análise da modelação dos preços do mercado de habitação na área de Lisboa entre 1972 e 2011

Figueiredo, Marta Isabel Fragoso Peralta de
Fonte: Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão Publicador: Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão
Tipo: Dissertação de Mestrado
Publicado em //2012 POR
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.99%
Mestrado em Gestão e Avaliação Imobiliária; O propósito deste estudo é investigarmos empiricamente os determinantes que influenciaram a formação do preço da habitação em Portugal. A evolução dos preços da habitação em Portugal reveste-se de grande importância para os profissionais do sector. Conhecer, estudar e analisar a evolução deste mercado ao longo dos últimos anos permite aos profissionais tomar decisões fundamentadas em análises profundas e cuidadas sobre quais foram os determinantes que influenciaram a procura e a oferta que por sua vez determinaram os preços. Pretendemos conhecer o comportamento do mercado imobiliário e qual a sua relação de causalidade com as variáveis macroeconómicas que influenciam o desenvolvimento económico do país. Usamos modelos Vetoriais Autorregressivos (VAR) para identificar os principais fatores macroeconómicos que influenciaram a formação dos preços ao longo dos últimos vinte e seis anos. Para a análise utilizamos dados trimestrais, referentes ao período de 1985 a 2011 e observámos as variáveis: Índice de Preços da Habitação (IPH), Produto Interno Bruto, Rendimento Disponível dos particulares, Taxa de desemprego e Taxa de Juro Implícitas no crédito hipotecário. Os resultados empíricos obtidos evidenciaram que existe uma relação de causalidade entre os preços da habitação e o PIB e a Taxa de Juro aplicada ao crédito hipotecário. O teste de causalidade à Granger revelou não existir relação de causalidade entre o Índice de Preços da Habitação e as variáveis Rendimento disponível dos particulares e Taxa de desemprego.; The purpose of this study is to empirically investigate the determinants that influenced the formation of the housing price in Portugal. The evolution of housing prices in Portugal is of great importance to industry professionals. Knowing...