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Food Price Increases in South Asia : National Responses and Regional Dimensions

World Bank
Fonte: World Bank Publicador: World Bank
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Food price inflation not only threatens macroeconomic stability but also decreases the welfare levels of most households, especially the poorer ones, for whom food consumption constitutes a relatively large share of total expenditures. This report analyzes the causes and effects of food price inflation in South Asia during the period 2007?08 and beyond; simulates the impact of food price increases on household welfare and the potential of adjustments in consumer and producer behavior for mitigating the negative impact on welfare; and assesses the potential impact of regional trade liberalization on food prices. The appendixes describe the policy reactions of individual governments to the increases in food prices against the background of their respective domestic food policies. The focus is on wheat and rice, which are the main food staples in South Asia and together account for an important part of food expenditures of the poor. By analyzing the household?level impacts of the food crisis and taking stock of the policy responses of national governments...

Optimal Food Price Stabilization in a Small Open Developing Country

Gouel, Christophe; Jean, Sebastien
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
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36.72%
In poor countries, most governments implement policies aiming to stabilize the prices of staple foods, which often include storage and trade measures insulating their domestic market from the world market. It is of crucial importance to understand the precise motivations and efficiency of those interventions, because they can have consequences worldwide. This paper addresses those issues by analyzing the case of a small, open developing country confronted by shocks to both the crop yield and foreign price. In this model, government interventions may be justified by the lack of an insurance market for food prices. Considering this market imperfection, the authors design optimal public interventions through trade and storage policies. They show that an optimal trade policy largely consists of subsidizing imports and taxing exports, which benefits consumers at the expense of producers. Import subsidies alleviate the non-negativity of food storage. In other words, when stocks are exhausted, subsidizing imports prevents domestic price spikes. One striking result: an optimal storage policy on its own is detrimental to consumers...

The Role of Inventory Adjustments in Quantifying Factors Causing Food Price Inflation

Hochman, Gal; Rajagopal, Deepak; Timilsina, Govinda; Zilberman, David
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
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36.73%
The food commodity price increases beginning in 2001 and culminating in the food crisis of 2007/08 reflected a combination of several factors, including economic growth, biofuel expansion, exchange rate fluctuations, and energy price inflation. To quantify these influences, the authors developed an empirical model that also included crop inventory adjustments. The study shows that, if inventory effects are not taken into account, the impacts of the various factors on food commodity price inflation would be overestimated. If the analysis ignores crop inventory adjustments, it indicates that prices of corn, soybean, rapeseed, rice, and wheat would have been, respectively, 42, 38, 52, and 45 percent lower than the corresponding observed prices in 2007. If inventories are properly taken into account, the contributions of the above mentioned factors to those commodity prices are 36, 26, 26, and 35 percent, respectively. Those four factors, taken together, explain 70 percent of the price increase for corn, 55 percent for soybean...

Placing the 2006/08 Commodity Price Boom into Perspective

Baffes, John; Haniotis, Tassos
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
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The 2006-08 commodity price boom was one of the longest and broadest of the post-World War II period. Apart from strong and sustained economic growth, the recent boom was fueled by numerous factors, including low past investment in extractive commodities, weak dollar, fiscal expansion, and lax monetary policy in many countries, and investment fund activity. At the same time, the combination of adverse weather conditions, the diversion of some food commodities to the production of biofuels, and government policies (including export bans and prohibitive taxes) brought global stocks of many food commodities down to levels not seen since the early 1970s. This in turn accelerated the price increases that eventually led to the 2008 rally. The weakening and/or reversal of these factors coupled with the financial crisis that erupted in September 2008 and the subsequent global economic downturn, induced sharp price declines across most commodity sectors. Yet, the main price indices are still twice as high compared to their 2000 real levels...

Managing Food Price Risks and Instability in an Environment of Market Liberalization

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
EN_US
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This report, Managing Food Price Risks and Instability in an Environment of Market Liberalization, studies the food price instability and risk problem in low-income countries and investigates the benefits and costs of alternative policy responses, and provides guidance on how to make the transition from state-dominated markets to private markets. The report concludes that problems of food price instability and food insecurity need to be addressed by developing: measures to improve overall productivity of food staples, measures to promote irrigation or crop diversification to reduce climate risks, improvements of the overall efficiency of markets, including investments in transport and communication infrastructure, storage, information systems, and market regulations. The report stresses that direct public interventions in food markets to manage food price risk should be a last resort. Specific policy recommendations are made to achieve these objectives.

Primer on Demand-Side Management : With an Emphasis on Price-Responsive Programs

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
EN_US
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The practice of Demand-Side Management (DSM) has evolved over the past three decades in response to lessons learned from implementation in different global settings, and also in response to the changing needs of restructured power markets. The most notable change that is occurring today is the inclusion of programs that emphasize price responsiveness in the DSM portfolio. Traditionally, DSM programs were confined to energy efficiency and conservation programs with reliability-driven load management programs being used occasionally to manage emergency situations. Electric prices were taken as a given when designing such programs, hampering the eventual success of all such efforts. This Primer has been written to introduce the new concepts of price-responsive DSM that are currently being investigated in a variety of different market settings. It highlights different criteria and taxonomies for classification and evaluation of DSM programs and recommends programs that will likely provide a better fit with the objectives, expected needs and outcomes of DSM initiatives in developing and transition countries. As defined in this primer, such initiatives include both load shifting programs (that either clip peak loads or shift energy used in the peak period to off-peak periods) and efficiency programs (that reduce the total amount of energy). The purpose of the primer is to provide successful examples of price-responsive DSM programs from the developed world and by discussing their workings...

How Vulnerable Are Arab Countries to Global Food Price Shocks?

Ianchovichina, Elena; Loening, Josef; Wood, Christina
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
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36.73%
This paper presents new estimates of pass-through coefficients from international to domestic food prices by country in the Middle East and North Africa. The estimates indicate that, despite the use of food price subsidies and other government interventions, a rise in global food prices is transmitted to a significant degree into domestic food prices in many countries in the Middle East and North Africa, although cross-country variation is significant. In nearly all countries, domestic food prices are highly downwardly rigid. The finding of asymmetric price transmission suggests that not only international food price levels matter, but also food price volatility. High food pass-through tends to increase inflation pressures, where food consumption shares are high. Domestic factors, often linked to storage, logistics, and procurement, have also played a major role in explaining high food inflation in the majority of countries in the region.

Food Price Volatility and Domestic Stabilization Policies in Developing Countries

Gouel, Christophe
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.73%
When food prices spike in countries with large numbers of poor people, public intervention is essential to alleviate hunger and malnutrition. For governments, this is also a case of political survival. Government actions often take the form of direct interventions in the market to stabilize food prices, which goes against most international advice to rely on safety nets and world trade. Despite the limitations of food price stabilization policies, they are widespread in developing countries. This paper attempts to untangle the elements of this policy conundrum. Price stabilization policies arise as a result of international and domestic coordination problems. At the individual country level, it is in the national interest of many countries to adjust trade policies to take ad-vantage of the world market in order to achieve domestic price stability. When countercyclical trade policies become widespread, the result is a thinner and less reliable world market, which further decreases the appeal of laissez-faire. A similar vicious circle operates in the domestic market: without effective policies to protect the poor...

Ethiopia : Explaining Food Price Inflation

Klugman, Jeni
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.72%
This study sheds some light on the challenges facing policy makers in Ethiopia, but much remains to be better understood. Over the past three years, food price inflation in Ethiopia has been persistently high, and overall inflation has been in double. While the spike in 2002 can be broadly explained by the drought-induced output shock that year, over the period as a whole, food price - and in particular grain price - trends present a puzzle in several respects. This is a serious concern for policy-makers, not least because the poor spend most of their income on food, and are adversely affected by rising prices. Even in rural areas, it is estimated that about half the population are net buyers of food. The issue of food price inflation has attracted rising concern in the national media and among policy makers, academics and of course the public at large, as well as among development partners. The structure of this note is as: authors review the key features of Ethiopian grain markets, before laying out a basic methodological approach to analyze the drivers of inflation...

Price Elasticity of Nonresidential Demand for Energy in South Eastern Europe

Iimi, Atsushi
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.71%
Recent volatility in international energy prices has revealed South Eastern Europe as one of the most vulnerable regions to such external shocks. Under the current global economic downturn, in addition, the region s energy-intensive industries are faced with the challenge of the weakening demand for their outputs. This paper casts light on the relationship between the price and the demand for energy. Based on firm level data, it is shown that the price elasticity of industrial energy demand is about -0.4 on average. There are a number of data issues to interpret the results correctly. But Albania and Macedonia are systematically found to have a relatively elastic demand for energy on the order of -0.7 to -0.8. In these countries, therefore, price adjustments would be one of the effective policy options to balance demand with supply during the period of energy crisis. In other countries, the demand response would be much weaker; pricing cannot be the only solution. Other policy measures, such as facilitation of firm energy efficiency and improvements in the quality of infrastructure services...

Grain Price Spikes and Beggar-Thy-Neighbor Policy Responses : A Global Economywide Analysis

Jensen, Hans G; Anderson, Kym
Fonte: World Bank Group, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank Group, Washington, DC
EN_US
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36.71%
When prices spike in international grain markets, national governments often reduce the extent to which that spike affects their domestic food markets. Those actions exacerbate the price spike and international welfare transfer associated with the terms of trade change. Several recent analyses have assessed the extent to which those policies contributed to the 2006-08 international price rise, but only by focusing on one commodity or using a back-of-the-envelope method. This paper provides a more comprehensive analysis that uses a global economywide model that is able to take account of the interactions between markets for farm products that are closely related in production or consumption. The model is able to estimate the impacts of those insulating policies on grain prices and on the grain trade and economic welfare of various countries. The results support the conclusion from earlier studies that there is a need for stronger World Trade Organization disciplines on export restrictions.

Myanmar : Rice Price Reduction and Poverty Reduction

World Bank Group
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.74%
Myanmar is a low-income agrarian country with a high poverty rate. The livelihood of many poor people depends on the performance of agriculture, especially the rice sector. Rice accounts for 70 percent of Myanmar s total cultivated area and 30 percent of the value of its agricultural production. Increasing returns to rice production will be the key to increasing farm wages and incomes in the short to medium run. Higher rice production will also help maintain low food prices, improve food security, and reduce poverty, as an average household spends 61 percent of total household income on food, and rice is a major component of the food basket. Price fluctuations are a common feature of well-functioning agricultural markets. Price fluctuation should be expected in such markets, since output varies from period to period due to factors such as weather, pests and disease, and because demand and supply are inelastic in the short run. Moreover, some amount of seasonal and spatial price movements should be tolerated, since these usefully signal scarcity in the market and facilitate a supply response...

Food Price Volatility and Domestic Stabilization Policies in Developing Countries

Gouel, Christophe
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.73%
When food prices spike in countries with large numbers of poor people, public intervention is essential to alleviate hunger and malnutrition. For governments, this is also a case of political survival. Government actions often take the form of direct interventions in the market to stabilize food prices, which goes against most international advice to rely on safety nets and world trade. Despite the limitations of food price stabilization policies, they are widespread in developing countries. This paper attempts to untangle the elements of this policy conundrum. Price stabilization policies arise as a result of international and domestic coordination problems. At the individual country level, it is in the national interest of many countries to adjust trade policies to take ad-vantage of the world market in order to achieve domestic price stability. When countercyclical trade policies become widespread, the result is a thinner and less reliable world market, which further decreases the appeal of laissez-faire. A similar vicious circle operates in the domestic market: without effective policies to protect the poor...

Analyzing Food Price Trends in the Context of Engel’s Law and the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis

Baffes, John; Etienne, Xiaoli L.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Working Paper; Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.74%
Income growth in emerging economies has often been cited as a key driver of the past decade’s com-modity price boom—the longest and broadest boom since World War II. This paper shows that income has a negative and highly significant effect on real food commodity prices, a finding that is consistent with Engel’s Law and Kindleberger’s thesis, the predecessors of the Prebisch-Singer hypothe-sis. The paper also shows that, in the long run, income influences real food prices mainly through the manufacturing price channel (the deflator), hence weakening the view that income growth exerts strong upward pressure on food prices. Other (short-term) drivers of food prices include energy costs, inventories, and monetary conditions.

Are International Food Price Spikes the Source of Egypt's High Inflation?

Al-Shawarby, Sherine; Selim, Hoda
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.72%
This paper examines whether domestic inflation spikes in Egypt during 2001-2011 were primarily the result of external food price shocks. To estimate the pass-through of international food price inflation to domestic price inflation, two different methodologies are used: a two-step regression model estimates the pass-through in the long run, and a vector autoregression model provides the short-run estimates. The empirical evidence confirms that pass-through is high in the short term, but not in the long run. More precisely, the results show that (i) long-run pass-through to domestic food inflation is relatively low, lying between 13 and 16 percent, while the long-term spill-over from domestic food inflation to core inflation is moderate, lying around 60 percent; (ii) in the short term, pass-through is relatively high, estimated around 29 percent after 6 months and around two-thirds after a year, but the spill-over effect to core inflation is limited; (iii) international food price shocks explain only a small portion of domestic inflation shocks in both the short and long terms; and (iv) international price inflation has asymmetric effects on domestic prices.

Integrating Central American and International Food Markets : An Analysis of Food Price Transmission in Honduras and Nicaragua

Arias, Diego; De Franco, Mario A.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.72%
In 2004 the Central American countries of Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatemala, El Salvador, Costa Rica, and the Dominican Republic signed the Dominican Republic-Central America Free Trade Agreement (DR-CAFTA) with the United States and are currently negotiating another agreement with the European Union and others. This study examines the dynamics among international and domestic food markets by assessing the transmission of international prices to domestic prices of key agriculture commodities in Honduras and Nicaragua. It analyzes to what degree, if at all, a change in the international price of a given food product influences the domestic price of that same good, at the level of the consumer and producer and in different regions in each country. This analysis provides important evidence of the price dynamics that guide public policy recommendations for a complementary agenda of agriculture trade liberaliza-tion in the region. There are two methods for analyzing the relationship between international and domestic prices. The first is to conduct a price wedge analysis-to evaluate the difference between international and domestic prices. The second method is to conduct a price transmission analysis by analyzing the variation in the percent growth of international versus domestic prices. Evidence from Nicaragua suggests that for most of the agriculture supply chains studied (except for beans) there is little competition in the country's domestic market structure. A few Nicaraguan companies own the majority share of the market...

Oil Price Volatility, Economic Growth and the Hedging Role of Renewable Energy

Rentschler, Jun E.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.72%
This paper investigates the adverse effects of oil price volatility on economic activity and the extent to which countries can hedge against such effects by using renewable energy. By considering the Realized Volatility of oil prices, rather than following the standard approach of considering oil price shocks in levels, the effects of factor price uncertainty on economic activity are analyzed. Sample countries represent developed and developing, oil importing and exporting and service/industry-based economies (United States, Japan, Germany, South Korea, India, and Malaysia) and thus complement the standard literature's analysis of Western OECD countries. In a vector auto-regressive setting, Granger causality tests, impulse response functions, and variance decompositions show that oil price volatility has more-adverse effects in all sample countries than oil price shocks alone can explain. The paper finds that the sensitivity to oil price volatility varies widely across countries and discusses various factors which may determine the level of sensitivity (such as sectoral composition and the energy mix). This implies that the standard approach of solely considering net oil importer-exporter status is not sufficient. Simulations of volatility shocks in hypothetical energy mixes (with increased renewable shares) illustrate the potential economic benefits resulting from efforts to disconnect the macroeconomy from volatile commodity markets. It is concluded that expanding renewable energy can in principle reduce an economy's vulnerability to oil price volatility...

Coping with Oil Price Volatility

Bacon, Robert; Kojima, Masami
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: ESMAP Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.74%
Oil is important in every economy; when its prices are high and volatile, governments feel compelled to intervene. Because there can be large costs associated with such interventions, reserve banks, central planning institutions, and think tanks in industrial countries have been carrying out quantitative analyses of oil price volatility for a number of years. This report focuses on fluctuations around trends in oil prices. It examines measurements of oil price volatility and evaluates several different approaches to coping with oil price volatility: hedging, security stocks, price-smoothing schemes, and reducing dependence on oil including diversification. It does not deal with the impact of oil price volatility on countries' macroeconomic performance or with macroeconomic policy responses; these generally have more to do with coping with higher price levels than with higher volatility per se. The study examines oil price volatility largely from the point of view of consumers and does not cover the management of revenue volatility by large oil exporters.

Maize Price Volatility; Does Market Remoteness Matter?

Moctar, Ndiaye; Elodie, Maitre d’Hôtel; Tristan, Le Cotty
Fonte: World Bank Group, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank Group, Washington, DC
Tipo: Working Paper; Publications & Research; Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.73%
This paper addresses the role of market remoteness in explaining maize price volatility in Burkina Faso. A model of price formation is introduced to demonstrate formally that transport costs between urban and rural markets exacerbate maize price volatility. Empirical support is provided to the proposition by exploring an unusually rich data set of monthly maize price series across 28 markets over 2004-13. The methodology relies on an autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model to investigate the statistical effect of road quality and distance from urban consumption centers on maize price volatility. The analysis finds that maize price volatility is greatest in remote markets. The results also show that maize-surplus markets and markets bordering Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana and Togo have experienced more volatile prices than maize-deficit and non-bordering markets. The findings suggest that enhancing road infrastructure would strengthen the links between rural markets and major consumption centers, thereby also stabilizing maize prices.

Implementing a Price Support Program for Myanmar's Rice Sector

Owen, Russell
Fonte: Universidade Duke Publicador: Universidade Duke
Tipo: Masters' project
Publicado em 16/04/2014 EN_US
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36.75%
Executive Summary This paper will evaluate the costs and benefits of implementing a price support program for Myanmar’s rice sector. I begin with a review of the literature relevant to price support programs for staple crops. From the review, I will present a general framework for evaluating price support programs. This framework will then be applied to select countries in Southeast Asia to provide context for how these experiences might be applied in Myanmar. Next comes a quantitative analysis of a prospective price support program in Myanmar, complete with rough forecasts of government expenditures under each program. The paper concludes by recommending implementation strategies to minimize the costs and maximize the benefits from a price support program. Context: The Rice Industry in Myanmar Agriculture contributes to roughly 45% of Myanmar’s GDP and employs 66% of the labor force. Rice is cultivated on 18.9 million hectares and constitutes 33% of the total crop area sown (Wong 2013). The major production areas are the Ayeyarwady Delta, Bago in lower Myanmar, and Sagaing. Rice and the rice industry are critical to the livelihoods of the people of Myanmar. Roughly 66% of the labor force is employed in agriculture, and a large percentage of these farmers cultivate rice (CSO 2011). There are two main categories of rural farmers: farmers and landless agricultural laborers. In 2009...