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Oil Intensities and Oil Prices : Evidence for Latin America

Alaimo, Veronica; Lopez, Humberto
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.8%
Crude oil prices have dramatically increased over the past years and are now at a historical maximum in nominal terms and very close to it in real terms. It is difficult to argue, at least for net oil importers, that higher oil prices have a positive impact on welfare. In fact, the negative relationship between oil prices and economic activity has been well documented in the literature. Yet, to the extent that higher oil prices lead to lower oil consumption, it would be possible to argue that not all the effects of a price increase are negative. Climate change concerns have been on the rise in recent years and fossil fuel consumption is generally viewed as one of the main causes behind it. Thus this paper explores whether higher oil prices contribute to lowering oil intensities (that is, oil consumption per unit of gross domestic product). The findings show that following an increase in oil prices, OECD countries tend to reduce oil intensity. However, the same result does not hold for Latin America (and more generally for middle-income countries) where oil intensities appear to be unaffected by oil prices. The paper also explores why this is so.

Assessing the Impact of Higher Oil Prices in Latin America

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.8%
For some Latin American countries - especially, the oil importers in the Caribbean - rising energy prices could pose a significant threat to their current account sustainability, particularly if they are accompanied by other negative shocks. In some countries the fiscal costs associated with subsidies to protect domestic consumers have been considerable so far. Hence, a better understanding of the effects of high oil prices and potential responses in the region is needed. This report evaluates the effects of oil shocks on economic performance for a sample of selected Latin American countries. The effects at the country level depend not only on the structural characteristics of the economy, such as the degree of dependence on oil, but also on the policy reactions to rising prices. Among the countries included in our study we have: large economies (Argentina, Brazil, Colombia and Mexico), net oil exporters (Venezuela and Ecuador), and net oil importers (Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guyana and Honduras).

Oil Price Risks and Pump Price Adjustments

Kojima, Masami
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.8%
Between 1999 and 2008, world oil prices more than quadrupled in real terms. For oil importers, vulnerability to oil price increases, defined as the share of gross domestic product spent on net oil imports, rose considerably. Considering medians, low-income countries had the highest vulnerability in 2008 and the highest increase in vulnerability between 1999 and 2008. When changes in vulnerability were decomposed into several contributing factors, more than two-thirds of 170 countries studied were found to have offset the increase in the value of oil consumption by reducing the oil intensity of gross domestic product. Oil intensity fell in more than half the countries in every income group and in every region of the world, driven by falling energy intensity and, to a lesser extent, the oil share of energy. This study also examines the degree of pass-through to consumers of increases in world prices of gasoline, diesel, kerosene, and liquefied petroleum gas between January 2009 and January 2012, when oil prices in nominal U.S. dollars more than doubled. Retail fuel prices varied by two orders of magnitude in 2012...

Long-Term Drivers of Food Prices

Baffes, John; Dennis, Allen
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.76%
It is becoming increasingly apparent that the post-2004, across-the-board, commodity price increases, which initially appeared to be a spike similar to the ones experienced during the early 1950s (Korean War) and the 1970s (oil crises), have a more permanent character. From 1997-2004 to 2005-12 nominal prices of energy, fertilizers, and precious metals tripled, metal prices went up by more than 150 percent, and most food prices doubled. Such price increases, especially in food commodities, not only fueled a debate on their key causes, but also alarmed government officials, leading to calls for coordinated policy actions. This paper examines the relative contribution of various sector and macroeconomic drivers to price changes of five food commodities (maize, wheat, rice, soybeans, and palm oil) by applying a reduced-form econometric model on 1960-2012 annual data. The drivers include stock-to-use ratios, crude oil and manufacturing prices, the United States dollar exchange rate, interest rate, and income. Based on long-run elasticity estimates (approximately -0.25 for the stock-to-use ratios...

How Much Does an Increase in Oil Prices Affect the Global Economy? Some Insights from a General Equilibrium Analysis

Timilsina, Govinda R.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.73%
A global computable general equilibrium model is used to analyze the economic impacts of rising oil prices with endogenously determined availability of biofuels to mitigate those impacts. The negative effects on the global economy are comparable to those found in other studies, but the impacts are unevenly distributed across countries/regions or sectors. The agricultural sectors of high-income countries, which are relatively energy intensive, would suffer more from rising oil prices than would those in lower-income countries, whereas the reverse is true for the impacts across manufacturing sectors. The impacts are especially strong for oil importers with relatively energy-intensive manufacturing and trade, such as India and China. Although the availability of biofuels does mitigate some of the negative impacts of rising oil prices, the benefit is small because the capacity of biofuels to economically substitute for fossil fuels on a large scale remains limited.

How are Developing Countries Coping with Higher Oil Prices?

Bacon, Robert; Kojima, Masami
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.67%
This note is based on a forthcoming report by ESMAP. The report covers policy alternatives adopted by developing country governments in response to the increases in world oil prices since the end of 2003. The report analyzes what factors have affected the responses and what policy prices have been used by governments to mitigate the effects of higher oil prices on consumers, the government budget, and the total demand for oil.

Coping with Higher Oil Prices

Bacon, Robert; Kojima, Masami
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.74%
The rise in oil prices and the associated increase in the prices of petroleum products that has occurred since the beginning of 2004 are having adverse effects on the users of petroleum products in all countries. In many developing countries, price increases have generated considerable pressure for government response to lessen the burden of higher world oil prices, and policies to minimize budgetary support have met with fierce opposition. The individual characteristics of petroleum products strongly influence the way consumers react to various policies that might be tried. Some policy measures that are effective for other items for the purpose of protecting consumers, and especially the poor, from price increases are not necessarily suitable or effective for petroleum products.

MENA Quarterly Economic Brief, January 2015 : Plunging Oil Prices

Devarajan, Shanta; Mottaghi, Lili
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.79%
This issue of the MENA Quarterly Economic Brief focuses on the implications of low oil prices for eight developing countries, or the MENA-8 (oil importers: Egypt, Tunisia, Lebanon and Jordan and oil exporters: Iran, Iraq, Yemen and Libya) and the economies of the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council), who play a major role in providing funds in the form of aid, investment, tourism revenues and remittances to the rest of the countries of the region. We make the following assumptions about the future price of oil: (i) The price will average $65 Brent p/b in 2015; (ii) a higher price $78 Brent p/b will be used for comparison analysis. As with other economic variables, there is uncertainty associated with the future price of oil, which adds to the error involved in projections. The data for 2015 2017 in the figures and tables are projections. These projections are based on statistical information available through early January 2015.

MENA Quarterly Economic Brief : Plunging Oil Prices

Lili Mottaghi
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.67%
In the three months since most observers, including the World Bank, issued their last forecasts, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Region has changed substantially. Political tensions have eased somewhat with presidential and legislative elections completed in a few countries. This issue of the MENA Quarterly Economic Brief focused on the implications of low oil prices for eight developing countries, the MENA-8 (oil importers: Egypt, Tunisia, Lebanon and Jordan and oil exporters: Iran, Iraq, Yemen and Libya) and the economies of the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council), who play a major role in providing funds in the form of aid, investment, tourism revenues and remittances to the rest of the countries of the region. Several assumptions are also made about future oil prices taking into account several variables. All projections are based on statistical information available through early January 2015.

Low Oil Prices

Boratynski, Jakub; Kasek, Leszek
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.8%
Oil prices on global markets have plunged from United States (U.S.) $115 per barrel in mid-June of 2014 to U.S. $48 at end-January 2015, while other fuel prices have continued the slow downward trend of recent years. The rapid decline in oil prices by about 60 percent was accompanied by U.S. dollar appreciation against the major global currencies (except the Swiss franc), partly offsetting the oil price decline measured in currencies other than the dollar. The impact assessment of the oil price shock was conducted using a multi-county, multi-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, PLACE, maintained by the Center for Climate Policy Analysis (CCPA). The effects of a permanent 60 percent oil price shock are assessed against a baseline scenario through 2020 based on the International Energy Agency (IEA) 2012 world energy outlook assuming a high oil price scenario of U.S. $118 in 2015 and U.S. $128 in 2020 (both in 2010 constant prices) and correlated price changes of coal (by 50 percent), and natural gas (by 30 percent). Model simulations show that...

Oil Prices and the Global Economy; A General Equilibrium Analysis

Timilsina, Govinda R.
Fonte: Elsevier Publicador: Elsevier
Tipo: Journal Article; Publications & Research; Publications & Research :: Journal Article
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.54%
A global computable general equilibrium model is used to analyze the economic impacts of rising oil prices with endogenously determined availability of biofuels to mitigate those impacts. The negative effects on the global economy are comparable to those found in other studies, but the impacts are unevenly distributed across countries/regions or sectors. The agricultural sectors of high-income countries, which are relatively energy intensive, would suffer more from a rising oil prices than that in lower-income countries, whereas the reverse is true for the impacts across manufacturing sectors. The impacts are especially strong for oil importers with relatively energy-intensive manufacturing and trade, such as India and China. While the availability of biofuels does mitigate some of the negative impacts of rising oil prices, the benefit is small because capacity of biofuels to economically substitute for fossil fuels on a large scale remains limited.

Reforming Fuel Pricing in an Age of $100 Oil

Kojima, Masami
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Energy Study; Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.8%
Increases in world oil prices since 2004 have challenged consumers and oil-importing countries across the world. Oil prices temporarily fell sharply in 2009, only to triple three years later. The oil import share of gross domestic product rose by nearly half among net oil importers in just two years between 2009 and 2011. Governments that control oil product prices have come under pressure to intervene by keeping domestic prices low and effectively subsidizing consumers. This study focuses on the evolving role of oil in national economies, particularly those of developing countries, and proposes a menu of options for drawing a roadmap for pricing policy reform for oil products. In light of events since 2009, it examines how recent price movements have affected countries' vulnerability to world oil price increases, how governments have adjusted domestic fuel prices in response, the consequences of the policy responses, other coping mechanisms to deal with high oil prices and price volatility, the roadblocks to reforming pricing policy...

Petroleum Fiscal Issues and Policies for Fluctuating Oil Prices in Vietnam

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: ESMAP Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.74%
The 1998 lowest level of international oil prices, triggered Viet Nam's request for technical assistance, to not only evaluate the petroleum fiscal system in comparison to other countries' competitiveness in international oil contracts' best practice, but also to evaluate options for flexible gas production contracts, including fiscal incentives for oil, and gas development of economically marginal fields. Since this report was prepared, in early 1999, oil prices have risen, and, the Petroleum Law was amended by mid 2000, hence, a later report will discuss revisions, and evaluate the total fiscal package. Nonetheless, the analyses reveal Viet Nam's contractual terms, concluding the country deals effectively with variations in economic conditions resulting from water depths; but ineffectively in dealing with field sizes, essentially creating the situation for small fields to remain uneconomic; moreover, it does not deal specifically with variations in economic conditions: actually it strongly discourages the development of fields with low-well productivity...

Coping with Oil Price Volatility

Bacon, Robert; Kojima, Masami
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: ESMAP Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.77%
Oil is important in every economy; when its prices are high and volatile, governments feel compelled to intervene. Because there can be large costs associated with such interventions, reserve banks, central planning institutions, and think tanks in industrial countries have been carrying out quantitative analyses of oil price volatility for a number of years. This report focuses on fluctuations around trends in oil prices. It examines measurements of oil price volatility and evaluates several different approaches to coping with oil price volatility: hedging, security stocks, price-smoothing schemes, and reducing dependence on oil including diversification. It does not deal with the impact of oil price volatility on countries' macroeconomic performance or with macroeconomic policy responses; these generally have more to do with coping with higher price levels than with higher volatility per se. The study examines oil price volatility largely from the point of view of consumers and does not cover the management of revenue volatility by large oil exporters.

The Impact of Higher Oil Prices on Low Income Countries and on the Poor

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: ESMAP Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.58%
The rapid and large oil price rise experienced during 2004 has created widespread concern about its impact on low income countries and on poor households in many countries. To appreciate the magnitude of this impact and to formulate policies to ameliorate these effects, a number of questions need to be answered. What are the routes by which countries are impacted? Which countries are most vulnerable to oil shocks? What determines the degree of vulnerability to such shocks? How much are the poor in various countries impacted by the effects of higher oil prices? What policies can reduce the vulnerability of countries to oil shocks, both immediately and in the medium to long run? Three levels of analysis are used to discuss these issues: the macroeconomic, that looks at the direct impact of the balance of payments and the necessary adjustment of GDP to restore equilibrium; the mesoeconomic, that looks at factors which determine a country's propensity to be a net oil importers, including oil self-sufficiency...

Mitigating Vulnerability to High and Volatile Oil Prices : Power Sector Experience in Latin America and the Caribbean

Yépez-Garcia, Rigoberto Ariel; Dana, Julie
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication; Publications & Research :: Publication
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.77%
Countries heavily dependent on imported oil to power a significant portion of their electricity generation are especially vulnerable to high and volatile oil prices. In net oil-importing countries worldwide, high and volatile oil prices ripple through the power sector to numerous segments of the economy. As prices move up and down, so does the cost of electricity production, which has far-reaching effects on the economy, fiscal and trade balances, businesses, and household living standards. High and volatile oil prices affect economies at both a macro and micro level. The major direct effects at the macro level are a deteriorating trade balance, through a higher import bill, reflecting a worsening in terms of trade; and a weakening fiscal balance due to greater government transfers and subsidies to insulate movements in international energy markets. At the micro level, investment uncertainty results from the higher risk of engaging in new projects and associated development and sunk costs, which, in turn, affects policy decisions and economic growth. This study responds to the needs of policy makers and energy planners in oil-importing countries to better manage exposure to oil price risk. The study's objective is threefold. First...

Planning for Higher Oil Prices : Power Sector Impact in Latin America and the Caribbean

Yépez-García, Rigoberto Ariel; San Vicente Portes, Luis; García, Luis Enrique
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Energy Study
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.83%
A scenario with higher oil prices has important implications for diverting from oil-based technologies to renewables, as well as gas, coal, and nuclear alternatives. By 2030, energy demand in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) is expected to double from 2008 levels. A key issue is deciding on the most appropriate mix of fuels for power generation, given the various prices of energy sources and technologies, as well as availability of renewable energy. The study's broad aim is to evaluate the impact of higher oil prices on the cost of generating electricity in countries of the LAC region so that better-informed energy policy planners can buffer future adverse effects. The study defines high oil prices as those above United States (U.S.) $100 per barrel. This price is considered a reasonable starting point for discussion given the recent range in oil prices, which averaged $95 a barrel in 2011. A price of $150 per barrel is defined as considerably high yet plausible given historical and current price levels...

Black Hole or Black Gold? The Impact of Oil and Gas Prices on Indonesia's Public Finances

Agustina, Cut Dian R.D.; Arze del Granado, Javier; Bulman, Tim; Fengler, Wolfgang; Ikhsan, Mohamad
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.81%
Indonesia's oil revenues and fuel subsidies dominate the nation's economic policy agenda. This paper estimates the impact of higher international oil prices on the Indonesian government's fiscal position in 2008 and beyond. It analyzes the interactions between government revenues and expenditures, as well as international oil prices, energy subsidies, and inter-governmental transfers. Looking at the impact of oil prices over US$100 per barrel, the paper presents five main findings. First, despite record high oil prices, the government's oil and gas revenues have been decreasing relative to non-oil and gas revenues since 2001. Second, fuel subsides will reach record levels in 2008 while electricity subsidies have been increasing even faster. Third, the paper finds that most of the fuel subsidy that directly benefits households goes to the richest 20 percent. Fourth, even at levels above US$100 per barrel, the government receives more revenues from oil and gas than it spends on energy subsidies. However...

Kazakhstan Economic Update, Fall 2015; Казахстан: Адаптация к низким ценам на нефть трудные времена впереди - Доклад об экономике (Осень 2015 г.); Adjusting to Lower Oil Prices--Challenging Times Ahead

World Bank Group
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Report; Economic & Sector Work :: Economic Updates and Modeling; Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.48%
Kazakhstan’s economy faces the challenge of adjusting to a large terms-of-trade shock in a context of declining domestic and external demand. The authorities responded to the collapse of global oil prices through a rapid fiscal adjustment followed by corresponding monetary and exchange-rate policy adjustments. A difficult external environment will continue to affect Kazakhstan’s medium-term outlook. In the medium term, the economy continues to face significant downside risks, including the possibility of delays in Kashagan offshore oil production or a protracted recession in Russia and a further slowdown in China. Over the longer term, diversification of the economy will be required to increase its resilience to external shocks.

MENA Economies Hit by Conflicts, Civil Wars, and Lower Oil Prices

Mottaghi, Lili
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Brief; Publications & Research :: Brief; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.66%
Against the backdrop of a slowing global economy and lower commodity prices, economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is stagnating. The World Bank 2015 MENA economic monitor report projects overall gross domestic product (GDP) growth to be less than 3 percent for the third year running - about 2.8 percent for 2015. Low oil prices, conflicts, and the global economic slowdown make short-term prospects of recovery unlikely. In a positive scenario of decreasing tensions in Libya, Iraq, and Syria, together with recovery in the Euro area that can boost external demand, growth in the region can rebound to 4.4 percent in 2016 and the following year. However, if current circumstances persist, overall growth is not expected to recover any time soon. Since the 2011 Arab spring, though not necessarily because of it, the MENA region has seen a slowdown in economic growth, an escalation of violence and civil war and, more recently, substantial macroeconomic imbalances from lower oil prices.