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Oil Intensities and Oil Prices : Evidence for Latin America

Alaimo, Veronica; Lopez, Humberto
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.84%
Crude oil prices have dramatically increased over the past years and are now at a historical maximum in nominal terms and very close to it in real terms. It is difficult to argue, at least for net oil importers, that higher oil prices have a positive impact on welfare. In fact, the negative relationship between oil prices and economic activity has been well documented in the literature. Yet, to the extent that higher oil prices lead to lower oil consumption, it would be possible to argue that not all the effects of a price increase are negative. Climate change concerns have been on the rise in recent years and fossil fuel consumption is generally viewed as one of the main causes behind it. Thus this paper explores whether higher oil prices contribute to lowering oil intensities (that is, oil consumption per unit of gross domestic product). The findings show that following an increase in oil prices, OECD countries tend to reduce oil intensity. However, the same result does not hold for Latin America (and more generally for middle-income countries) where oil intensities appear to be unaffected by oil prices. The paper also explores why this is so.

Oil Price Risks

Bacon, Robert; Kojima, Masami
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.56%
Oil prices more than tripled between January 2004 and March 2008. The effects can be hard on countries with large net oil imports relative to income. This note sets out a measure of vulnerability to oil price shocks and breaks it down into its components. That allows cross-country benchmarking and helps to show how changes in such factors as energy efficiency and the real exchange rate can make countries more vulnerable or less so.

Assessing the Impact of Higher Oil Prices in Latin America

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.98%
For some Latin American countries - especially, the oil importers in the Caribbean - rising energy prices could pose a significant threat to their current account sustainability, particularly if they are accompanied by other negative shocks. In some countries the fiscal costs associated with subsidies to protect domestic consumers have been considerable so far. Hence, a better understanding of the effects of high oil prices and potential responses in the region is needed. This report evaluates the effects of oil shocks on economic performance for a sample of selected Latin American countries. The effects at the country level depend not only on the structural characteristics of the economy, such as the degree of dependence on oil, but also on the policy reactions to rising prices. Among the countries included in our study we have: large economies (Argentina, Brazil, Colombia and Mexico), net oil exporters (Venezuela and Ecuador), and net oil importers (Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guyana and Honduras).

Oil Price Risks and Pump Price Adjustments

Kojima, Masami
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.84%
Between 1999 and 2008, world oil prices more than quadrupled in real terms. For oil importers, vulnerability to oil price increases, defined as the share of gross domestic product spent on net oil imports, rose considerably. Considering medians, low-income countries had the highest vulnerability in 2008 and the highest increase in vulnerability between 1999 and 2008. When changes in vulnerability were decomposed into several contributing factors, more than two-thirds of 170 countries studied were found to have offset the increase in the value of oil consumption by reducing the oil intensity of gross domestic product. Oil intensity fell in more than half the countries in every income group and in every region of the world, driven by falling energy intensity and, to a lesser extent, the oil share of energy. This study also examines the degree of pass-through to consumers of increases in world prices of gasoline, diesel, kerosene, and liquefied petroleum gas between January 2009 and January 2012, when oil prices in nominal U.S. dollars more than doubled. Retail fuel prices varied by two orders of magnitude in 2012...

Middle East and North Africa Economic Developments and Prospects, September 2011 : Investing for Growth and Jobs

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.75%
The report highlights the important links between good governance on a level legal and regulatory playing field, and the ability of investment to stimulate growth. Investment in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has been strong over the last two decades in comparison with Latin America and Eastern Europe. However, in the oil exporting countries, it has been primarily supported by large and expanding public investments. Oil importers, in contrast, have shown more strength in private investment, which has increased in recent years. A concern with reliance on public investment is that in economies with weak governance there is no evidence that public investment stimulates growth. In contrast, in countries with an adequate level of protection of property rights and legal institutions, public investment is strongly linked to growth. The report also makes a strong case for private investment in services and manufacturing as engines of job creation and income growth in the region.

How Much Does an Increase in Oil Prices Affect the Global Economy? Some Insights from a General Equilibrium Analysis

Timilsina, Govinda R.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.83%
A global computable general equilibrium model is used to analyze the economic impacts of rising oil prices with endogenously determined availability of biofuels to mitigate those impacts. The negative effects on the global economy are comparable to those found in other studies, but the impacts are unevenly distributed across countries/regions or sectors. The agricultural sectors of high-income countries, which are relatively energy intensive, would suffer more from rising oil prices than would those in lower-income countries, whereas the reverse is true for the impacts across manufacturing sectors. The impacts are especially strong for oil importers with relatively energy-intensive manufacturing and trade, such as India and China. Although the availability of biofuels does mitigate some of the negative impacts of rising oil prices, the benefit is small because the capacity of biofuels to economically substitute for fossil fuels on a large scale remains limited.

The Vulnerability of African Countries to Oil Price Shocks : Major Factors and Policy Options, The Case of Oil Importing Countries

Bacon, Robert; Mattar, Adib
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.58%
Apart from a few oil exporters, Sub-Saharan Africa consists of a large number of low-income countries, many of which are highly dependent on oil imports as a source of primary energy. The purpose of this study is to provide information on a number of aspects of energy and oil use in these countries, with a view to highlighting the vulnerabilities of the different countries against sustained or even increasing oil prices, and explore some of the policy implications. The topics investigated are: 1) How vulnerable is each country at present to a sustained oil price rise measured in terms of the ratio of net oil imports to gross domestic product (GDP), and in terms of its ability to pay as indexed by the ratio of net external debt to GDP? 2) What are the energy and oil intensities of the economies and what are the recent trends (measured by the ratio of energy use to GDP)? Can countries expect that energy and oil intensity will rise or fall as the level of development improves? 3) What is the oil fuel dependence of the economy...

Coping with Higher Oil Prices

Bacon, Robert; Kojima, Masami
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.55%
The rise in oil prices and the associated increase in the prices of petroleum products that has occurred since the beginning of 2004 are having adverse effects on the users of petroleum products in all countries. In many developing countries, price increases have generated considerable pressure for government response to lessen the burden of higher world oil prices, and policies to minimize budgetary support have met with fierce opposition. The individual characteristics of petroleum products strongly influence the way consumers react to various policies that might be tried. Some policy measures that are effective for other items for the purpose of protecting consumers, and especially the poor, from price increases are not necessarily suitable or effective for petroleum products.

MENA Quarterly Economic Brief, January 2015 : Plunging Oil Prices

Devarajan, Shanta; Mottaghi, Lili
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.84%
This issue of the MENA Quarterly Economic Brief focuses on the implications of low oil prices for eight developing countries, or the MENA-8 (oil importers: Egypt, Tunisia, Lebanon and Jordan and oil exporters: Iran, Iraq, Yemen and Libya) and the economies of the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council), who play a major role in providing funds in the form of aid, investment, tourism revenues and remittances to the rest of the countries of the region. We make the following assumptions about the future price of oil: (i) The price will average $65 Brent p/b in 2015; (ii) a higher price $78 Brent p/b will be used for comparison analysis. As with other economic variables, there is uncertainty associated with the future price of oil, which adds to the error involved in projections. The data for 2015 2017 in the figures and tables are projections. These projections are based on statistical information available through early January 2015.

MENA Quarterly Economic Brief : Plunging Oil Prices

Lili Mottaghi
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.82%
In the three months since most observers, including the World Bank, issued their last forecasts, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Region has changed substantially. Political tensions have eased somewhat with presidential and legislative elections completed in a few countries. This issue of the MENA Quarterly Economic Brief focused on the implications of low oil prices for eight developing countries, the MENA-8 (oil importers: Egypt, Tunisia, Lebanon and Jordan and oil exporters: Iran, Iraq, Yemen and Libya) and the economies of the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council), who play a major role in providing funds in the form of aid, investment, tourism revenues and remittances to the rest of the countries of the region. Several assumptions are also made about future oil prices taking into account several variables. All projections are based on statistical information available through early January 2015.

Oil Prices and the Global Economy; A General Equilibrium Analysis

Timilsina, Govinda R.
Fonte: Elsevier Publicador: Elsevier
Tipo: Journal Article; Publications & Research; Publications & Research :: Journal Article
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.45%
A global computable general equilibrium model is used to analyze the economic impacts of rising oil prices with endogenously determined availability of biofuels to mitigate those impacts. The negative effects on the global economy are comparable to those found in other studies, but the impacts are unevenly distributed across countries/regions or sectors. The agricultural sectors of high-income countries, which are relatively energy intensive, would suffer more from a rising oil prices than that in lower-income countries, whereas the reverse is true for the impacts across manufacturing sectors. The impacts are especially strong for oil importers with relatively energy-intensive manufacturing and trade, such as India and China. While the availability of biofuels does mitigate some of the negative impacts of rising oil prices, the benefit is small because capacity of biofuels to economically substitute for fossil fuels on a large scale remains limited.

Reforming Fuel Pricing in an Age of $100 Oil

Kojima, Masami
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Energy Study; Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.57%
Increases in world oil prices since 2004 have challenged consumers and oil-importing countries across the world. Oil prices temporarily fell sharply in 2009, only to triple three years later. The oil import share of gross domestic product rose by nearly half among net oil importers in just two years between 2009 and 2011. Governments that control oil product prices have come under pressure to intervene by keeping domestic prices low and effectively subsidizing consumers. This study focuses on the evolving role of oil in national economies, particularly those of developing countries, and proposes a menu of options for drawing a roadmap for pricing policy reform for oil products. In light of events since 2009, it examines how recent price movements have affected countries' vulnerability to world oil price increases, how governments have adjusted domestic fuel prices in response, the consequences of the policy responses, other coping mechanisms to deal with high oil prices and price volatility, the roadblocks to reforming pricing policy...

MENA Regional Economic Update

Freund, Caroline; Ianchovichina, Elena
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Brief; Publications & Research
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
47.05%
Regional events continue to affect the short-term economic prospects in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), while major developments in the global economy over the past six months have put the region on a two-track growth path for 2012. These developments include a significant rise in crude oil prices on fears of oil supply disruptions and weak economic activity in the Eurozone. Economic growth of MENA's oil exporting countries will be strong as it rebounds from the average of 3.4 percent in 2011 to 5.4 percent in 2012. In sum, growth in MENA will rebound and approach 4.8 percent in 2012, rising about 2 percentage points relative to growth in 2011. This aggregate outcome however hides a two-track growth forecast. Oil exporters will grow much faster relative to oil importers and relative to 2011, provided oil prices remain strong. Oil importers, especially those recovering after political turbulence, remain in vulnerable positions and will grow at half the pace registered by oil exporters. Risks are multiple and reflect the heterogeneous domestic conditions across MENA...

MENA's Non-Oil Export Performance in the Last Decade

Ianchovichina, Elena
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Brief; Publications & Research
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.52%
The political events reshaping the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region underlines that the key to political stability and renewed growth is going to depend on enabling more inclusive political and economic paths. Exports and especially non-oil exports will play a key role in developing the robust and inclusive growth model that the region needs to secure its future. Exports of non-oil goods and services play a much smaller role in MENA than in other regions. In 2008, MENA's share of exports of non-oil goods and services in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was just 16 percent compared to 44 percent in East Asia and 22 percent in South Asia, and lower even compared to the shares of Latin America and The Caribbean (LAC) and Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). These statistics are not surprising since about two thirds of the countries in MENA are net oil exporters, but the imperative to address employment challenges in MENA calls for a special focus on the state of nonoil exports.

Natural Oil Companies and Value Creation : Volume 2. Case Studies

Tordo, Silvana; Tracy, Brandon S.; Arfaa, Noora
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research; Publications & Research :: Publication
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.85%
Approximately two billion dollars a day of petroleum are traded worldwide, which makes petroleum the largest single item in the balance of payments and exchanges between nations. Petroleum represents the larger share in total energy use for most net exporters and net importers. While petroleum taxes are a major source of income for more than 90 countries in the world, poor countries net importers are more vulnerable to price increases than most industrialized economies. This paper has five chapters. Chapter one describes the key features of upstream, midstream, and downstream petroleum operations and how these may impact value creation and policy options. Chapter two draws on ample literature and discusses how changes in the geopolitical and global economic environment and in the host governments' political and economic priorities have affected the rationale for and behavior of National Oil Companies' (NOCs). Rather than providing an in-depth analysis of the philosophical reasons for creating aNOC, this chapter seeks to highlight the special nature of NOCs and how it may affect their existence...

Vulnerability to Oil Price Increases : A Decomposition Analysis of 161 Countries

Bacon, Robert; Kojima, Masami
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.58%
This paper examines the levels of and changes in vulnerability to oil price increases between 1996 and 2006 in 161 countries for which data are available. Vulnerability defined here as the ratio of the value of net oil imports to gross domestic product (GDP) rises if oil consumption increases and oil production decreases per unit of GDP. By comparing the level of vulnerability of different economies at a point in time, those that are particularly vulnerable to oil price increases can be highlighted. This enables consideration of the factors (variables) that help determine the magnitude of vulnerability. Over time economies change in ways that may make them more vulnerable to oil price increases or less so, and the change in vulnerability will be related to changes in the underlying variables. The analysis this paper uses is a starting point for linking these factors. The study also examined changes in vulnerability by subdividing the period under review into two sub-periods, 1996-2001 and 2001-6. The oil price increase during the first sub-period was small...

The Impact of Higher Oil Prices on Low Income Countries and on the Poor

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: ESMAP Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.52%
The rapid and large oil price rise experienced during 2004 has created widespread concern about its impact on low income countries and on poor households in many countries. To appreciate the magnitude of this impact and to formulate policies to ameliorate these effects, a number of questions need to be answered. What are the routes by which countries are impacted? Which countries are most vulnerable to oil shocks? What determines the degree of vulnerability to such shocks? How much are the poor in various countries impacted by the effects of higher oil prices? What policies can reduce the vulnerability of countries to oil shocks, both immediately and in the medium to long run? Three levels of analysis are used to discuss these issues: the macroeconomic, that looks at the direct impact of the balance of payments and the necessary adjustment of GDP to restore equilibrium; the mesoeconomic, that looks at factors which determine a country's propensity to be a net oil importers, including oil self-sufficiency...

Planning for Higher Oil Prices : Power Sector Impact in Latin America and the Caribbean

Yépez-García, Rigoberto Ariel; San Vicente Portes, Luis; García, Luis Enrique
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Energy Study
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.85%
A scenario with higher oil prices has important implications for diverting from oil-based technologies to renewables, as well as gas, coal, and nuclear alternatives. By 2030, energy demand in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) is expected to double from 2008 levels. A key issue is deciding on the most appropriate mix of fuels for power generation, given the various prices of energy sources and technologies, as well as availability of renewable energy. The study's broad aim is to evaluate the impact of higher oil prices on the cost of generating electricity in countries of the LAC region so that better-informed energy policy planners can buffer future adverse effects. The study defines high oil prices as those above United States (U.S.) $100 per barrel. This price is considered a reasonable starting point for discussion given the recent range in oil prices, which averaged $95 a barrel in 2011. A price of $150 per barrel is defined as considerably high yet plausible given historical and current price levels...

The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy

Cashin, Paul; Mohaddes, Kamiar; Raissi, Maziar; Raissi, Mehdi
Fonte: Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge, UK Publicador: Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge, UK
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.51%
We employ a set of sign restrictions on the generalized impulse responses of a Global VAR model, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2.2011Q2, to discriminate between supply-driven and demand-driven oil-price shocks and to study the time profile of their macroeconomic effects for different countries. The results indicate that the economic consequences of a supply-driven oil-price shock are very different from those of an oil-demand shock driven by global economic activity, and vary for oil-importing countries compared to energy exporters. While oil importers typically face a long-lived fall in economic activity in response to a supply-driven surge in oil prices, the impact is positive for energy-exporting countries that possess large proven oil/gas reserves. However, in response to an oil-demand disturbance, almost all countries in our sample experience long-run inflationary pressures and a short-run increase in real output.

MENA Economies Hit by Conflicts, Civil Wars, and Lower Oil Prices

Mottaghi, Lili
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Brief; Publications & Research :: Brief; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.52%
Against the backdrop of a slowing global economy and lower commodity prices, economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is stagnating. The World Bank 2015 MENA economic monitor report projects overall gross domestic product (GDP) growth to be less than 3 percent for the third year running - about 2.8 percent for 2015. Low oil prices, conflicts, and the global economic slowdown make short-term prospects of recovery unlikely. In a positive scenario of decreasing tensions in Libya, Iraq, and Syria, together with recovery in the Euro area that can boost external demand, growth in the region can rebound to 4.4 percent in 2016 and the following year. However, if current circumstances persist, overall growth is not expected to recover any time soon. Since the 2011 Arab spring, though not necessarily because of it, the MENA region has seen a slowdown in economic growth, an escalation of violence and civil war and, more recently, substantial macroeconomic imbalances from lower oil prices.