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Who Are the Net Food Importing Countries?

Ng, Francis; Aksoy, M. Ataman
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.68%
The purpose of this paper is to update the information on net food importing countries, using different definitions of food, separating countries by their level of income, whether they are in conflict and whether they are significant oil exporters. The study also estimates the changes in net food importing status of these countries over the last two and a half decades, and, most important, the study measures the relative importance of these net food imports in the import basket of the countries. Our results show that while many low-income countries are net food importers, the importance and potential impact of the net food importing status has been highly exaggerated. Many low-income countries that have larger food deficits are either oil exporters or countries in conflict. Food deficits of most low-income countries are not that significant as a percentage of their imports. Our results also show that only 6 low-income countries have food deficits that are more than 10 percent of their imports. Last two decades have seen a significant improvement in the food trade balances of low-income developing countries. SSA low-income countries are an exception to this trend. On the other hand...

Assessing the Impact of Higher Oil Prices in Latin America

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
EN_US
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56.69%
For some Latin American countries - especially, the oil importers in the Caribbean - rising energy prices could pose a significant threat to their current account sustainability, particularly if they are accompanied by other negative shocks. In some countries the fiscal costs associated with subsidies to protect domestic consumers have been considerable so far. Hence, a better understanding of the effects of high oil prices and potential responses in the region is needed. This report evaluates the effects of oil shocks on economic performance for a sample of selected Latin American countries. The effects at the country level depend not only on the structural characteristics of the economy, such as the degree of dependence on oil, but also on the policy reactions to rising prices. Among the countries included in our study we have: large economies (Argentina, Brazil, Colombia and Mexico), net oil exporters (Venezuela and Ecuador), and net oil importers (Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guyana and Honduras).

The Vulnerability of African Countries to Oil Price Shocks : Major Factors and Policy Options, The Case of Oil Importing Countries

Bacon, Robert; Mattar, Adib
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
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56.81%
Apart from a few oil exporters, Sub-Saharan Africa consists of a large number of low-income countries, many of which are highly dependent on oil imports as a source of primary energy. The purpose of this study is to provide information on a number of aspects of energy and oil use in these countries, with a view to highlighting the vulnerabilities of the different countries against sustained or even increasing oil prices, and explore some of the policy implications. The topics investigated are: 1) How vulnerable is each country at present to a sustained oil price rise measured in terms of the ratio of net oil imports to gross domestic product (GDP), and in terms of its ability to pay as indexed by the ratio of net external debt to GDP? 2) What are the energy and oil intensities of the economies and what are the recent trends (measured by the ratio of energy use to GDP)? Can countries expect that energy and oil intensity will rise or fall as the level of development improves? 3) What is the oil fuel dependence of the economy...

Harnessing the Global Recovery, A Tough Road Ahead

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.75%
Many countries in Middle East and North Africa (MENA) will start to benefit from stronger external demand in the high-income economies, as the global economy is set for a rebound in 2014. After a marked slowdown in 2013, a recovery in high income economies is expected to boost global growth to 3.2 percent in 2014, an increase by 0.8 percentage points compared to 2013. Global output is expected to improve further in 2015 with real gross domestic product (GDP) accelerating to 3.4 percent in 2015. The World Bank estimates that growth in the United States (U.S.) will increase by 1 percentage point reaching 2.8 percent in 2014 and 2.9 percent in 2015; and the Euro Zone will improve to 1.1 percent and accelerate to 1.4 percent in 2014 and 2015 respectively, relative to negative 0.4 percent growth in 2013. The growth rebound in the Euro Zone is largely export led, with Germany and France continuing to expand at a solid pace, and Spain exiting recession. The world travel and tourism council estimates show that tourism revenues will increase by 7 percent in the MENA region in 2015 relative to 2014. To be sure...

MENA Quarterly Economic Brief, January 2015 : Plunging Oil Prices

Devarajan, Shanta; Mottaghi, Lili
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
EN_US
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56.69%
This issue of the MENA Quarterly Economic Brief focuses on the implications of low oil prices for eight developing countries, or the MENA-8 (oil importers: Egypt, Tunisia, Lebanon and Jordan and oil exporters: Iran, Iraq, Yemen and Libya) and the economies of the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council), who play a major role in providing funds in the form of aid, investment, tourism revenues and remittances to the rest of the countries of the region. We make the following assumptions about the future price of oil: (i) The price will average $65 Brent p/b in 2015; (ii) a higher price $78 Brent p/b will be used for comparison analysis. As with other economic variables, there is uncertainty associated with the future price of oil, which adds to the error involved in projections. The data for 2015 2017 in the figures and tables are projections. These projections are based on statistical information available through early January 2015.

MENA Quarterly Economic Brief : Plunging Oil Prices

Lili Mottaghi
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
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In the three months since most observers, including the World Bank, issued their last forecasts, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Region has changed substantially. Political tensions have eased somewhat with presidential and legislative elections completed in a few countries. This issue of the MENA Quarterly Economic Brief focused on the implications of low oil prices for eight developing countries, the MENA-8 (oil importers: Egypt, Tunisia, Lebanon and Jordan and oil exporters: Iran, Iraq, Yemen and Libya) and the economies of the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council), who play a major role in providing funds in the form of aid, investment, tourism revenues and remittances to the rest of the countries of the region. Several assumptions are also made about future oil prices taking into account several variables. All projections are based on statistical information available through early January 2015.

Recent Economic Developments and Prospects

Mottaghi, Lili
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Tipo: Brief
EN_US
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46.86%
The global economy will grow 3 to 3.5 percent this year, 0.5 percent higher than last year s 2.6 percent, and surpassing the average growth rate of 3.1 percent during 2000-08, before the financial crisis. The magnitude of the gains will depend on, among other factors, the share of oil imports in gross domestic product (GDP). Oil exporters (including Russia) can see a sharp fall in growth deteriorating fiscal balances with significant regional consequences. Low oil prices have significantly affected the economies of the oil exporters - accounting for 2-3 of the countries in the region. Economic growth in Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is expected to continue on the same path in 2016. If the security situation in Libya improves and oil exports increase, the regional average can surge to 4 percent to 5 percent in 2016.

Low Oil Prices

Boratynski, Jakub; Kasek, Leszek
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.68%
Oil prices on global markets have plunged from United States (U.S.) $115 per barrel in mid-June of 2014 to U.S. $48 at end-January 2015, while other fuel prices have continued the slow downward trend of recent years. The rapid decline in oil prices by about 60 percent was accompanied by U.S. dollar appreciation against the major global currencies (except the Swiss franc), partly offsetting the oil price decline measured in currencies other than the dollar. The impact assessment of the oil price shock was conducted using a multi-county, multi-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, PLACE, maintained by the Center for Climate Policy Analysis (CCPA). The effects of a permanent 60 percent oil price shock are assessed against a baseline scenario through 2020 based on the International Energy Agency (IEA) 2012 world energy outlook assuming a high oil price scenario of U.S. $118 in 2015 and U.S. $128 in 2020 (both in 2010 constant prices) and correlated price changes of coal (by 50 percent), and natural gas (by 30 percent). Model simulations show that...

Transforming Natural Resource Wealth into Sustained Growth and Poverty Reduction : A Conceptual Framework for Sub-Saharan African Oil Exporting Countries

Toto Same, Achille
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
ENGLISH
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46.67%
Oil and mineral revenues raise national savings and hence facilitate investment, capital accumulation, and sustained growth; thus, there are benefits of owning large natural resources. There can be a significant spillover effect from the oil sector to the non-oil sector particularly if governments are committed to bridge the infrastructure gap and promote the non-oil economy and foremost the non-oil tradable sector. Consequently, the capacity for coordinated policy formulation and execution is fundamental as well as sound windfall management mechanisms and institutions. This conceptual framework uses the case of Indonesia and the example of Norway to argue that the resource paradox is avoidable. Abundance should not be a curse, but rather a blessing for Sub-Saharan Africa's oil and mineral exporting countries. The country context and political economy matter a great deal but should not be the main driving forces behind windfall management, to avoid excessive rent-seeking activities, inefficiency, and wasteful spending. The EITI++ implementation can contribute to make a difference...

MENA Regional Economic Update

Freund, Caroline; Ianchovichina, Elena
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Brief; Publications & Research
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.79%
Regional events continue to affect the short-term economic prospects in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), while major developments in the global economy over the past six months have put the region on a two-track growth path for 2012. These developments include a significant rise in crude oil prices on fears of oil supply disruptions and weak economic activity in the Eurozone. Economic growth of MENA's oil exporting countries will be strong as it rebounds from the average of 3.4 percent in 2011 to 5.4 percent in 2012. In sum, growth in MENA will rebound and approach 4.8 percent in 2012, rising about 2 percentage points relative to growth in 2011. This aggregate outcome however hides a two-track growth forecast. Oil exporters will grow much faster relative to oil importers and relative to 2011, provided oil prices remain strong. Oil importers, especially those recovering after political turbulence, remain in vulnerable positions and will grow at half the pace registered by oil exporters. Risks are multiple and reflect the heterogeneous domestic conditions across MENA...

MENA's Non-Oil Export Performance in the Last Decade

Ianchovichina, Elena
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Brief; Publications & Research
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.75%
The political events reshaping the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region underlines that the key to political stability and renewed growth is going to depend on enabling more inclusive political and economic paths. Exports and especially non-oil exports will play a key role in developing the robust and inclusive growth model that the region needs to secure its future. Exports of non-oil goods and services play a much smaller role in MENA than in other regions. In 2008, MENA's share of exports of non-oil goods and services in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was just 16 percent compared to 44 percent in East Asia and 22 percent in South Asia, and lower even compared to the shares of Latin America and The Caribbean (LAC) and Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). These statistics are not surprising since about two thirds of the countries in MENA are net oil exporters, but the imperative to address employment challenges in MENA calls for a special focus on the state of nonoil exports.

Vulnerability to Oil Price Increases : A Decomposition Analysis of 161 Countries

Bacon, Robert; Kojima, Masami
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
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46.47%
This paper examines the levels of and changes in vulnerability to oil price increases between 1996 and 2006 in 161 countries for which data are available. Vulnerability defined here as the ratio of the value of net oil imports to gross domestic product (GDP) rises if oil consumption increases and oil production decreases per unit of GDP. By comparing the level of vulnerability of different economies at a point in time, those that are particularly vulnerable to oil price increases can be highlighted. This enables consideration of the factors (variables) that help determine the magnitude of vulnerability. Over time economies change in ways that may make them more vulnerable to oil price increases or less so, and the change in vulnerability will be related to changes in the underlying variables. The analysis this paper uses is a starting point for linking these factors. The study also examined changes in vulnerability by subdividing the period under review into two sub-periods, 1996-2001 and 2001-6. The oil price increase during the first sub-period was small...

Strengthening China's and India's Trade and Investment Ties to the Middle East and North Africa

Pigato, Miria
Fonte: World Bank Publicador: World Bank
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication; Publications & Research :: Publication
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.73%
The spectacular economic rise of China and India over the past two decades has accelerated their trade with Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Their demands for oil, gas, and other natural resources have been driving new relationships with MENA countries based not only on energy but also on trade, investment, and political ties. Indeed, Dubai has become the center of a new Silk Road, the intersection where people, capital, and ideas meet. And while the financial crisis that hit global markets in 2008 has placed downward pressure on growth, these new relationships are likely to deepen in the coming years. The report's main messages are as follows: a) demand for energy from China and India is expected to increase substantially in the future, thus greatly benefiting oil producing countries in the MENA region; b) the oil exporters in the Gulf have laid big bets on economic diversification and knowledge enterprises, bets they might win, but with lots of risk along the way. Oil price volatility may threaten the sustainability of the recent expansion; and c) the growth of China and India offers new market opportunities for the countries in MENA. Besides energy...

Coping with Oil Price Volatility

Bacon, Robert; Kojima, Masami
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: ESMAP Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.68%
Oil is important in every economy; when its prices are high and volatile, governments feel compelled to intervene. Because there can be large costs associated with such interventions, reserve banks, central planning institutions, and think tanks in industrial countries have been carrying out quantitative analyses of oil price volatility for a number of years. This report focuses on fluctuations around trends in oil prices. It examines measurements of oil price volatility and evaluates several different approaches to coping with oil price volatility: hedging, security stocks, price-smoothing schemes, and reducing dependence on oil including diversification. It does not deal with the impact of oil price volatility on countries' macroeconomic performance or with macroeconomic policy responses; these generally have more to do with coping with higher price levels than with higher volatility per se. The study examines oil price volatility largely from the point of view of consumers and does not cover the management of revenue volatility by large oil exporters.

MENA Economic and Development Prospects 2013 : Investing in Turbulent Times

Ianchovichina, Elena; Devarajan, Shantayanan; Burger, Martijn
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Brief; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.54%
The political and social upheavals that followed the Arab Spring of 2011 continue to dominate economic activity and near term prospects in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Although political transitions bring promises of greater political and economic freedom, in MENA the process remains far from complete and has been accompanied by increased political and macroeconomic instability in 2013. In Egypt, rising social and political tensions weighed heavily on confidence. In Syria, a marked escalation of the civil war exacted a heavy economic and human toll, with spillovers to neighboring Lebanon, Jordan, and Iraq. Oil production in developing MENA oil exporters has fallen because of security setbacks, infrastructure problems, strikes, and in the case of Iran, economic sanctions. The outlook for 2013-and more so for 2014, is uncertain and subject to a variety of risks, mostly domestic in nature and linked to political instability, while global economic conditions have become more favorable. In 2013, economic growth is expected to remain weak or weaken relative to 2012 across MENA and average 2.8 percent...

Economy-Wide Impact of Oil Discovery in Ghana

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Policy Note; Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.67%
Ghana's oil will start to flow in 2011, maybe even before, and most of its known reserves will be extracted in the immediate years after. The promise of oil generates expectations of all sorts, the more so as Ghana currently grapples with a macroeconomic crisis of significant proportions. This overview discusses the Ghana-specific nature of these challenges and explores possible options to address them. In doing so, it builds on seven thematic chapters which look at different aspects of the question: (1) oil facts, (2) political economy, (3) public financial management, (4) infrastructure, (5) private sector development, (6) agriculture, and (7) poverty. While the overview tries to bring together the findings of these different chapters, further details and discussions on each of these topics can be found in o f the chapters themselves. It concludes that while oil revenue will not be large enough to radically transform Ghana, it could, if improperly managed, impose enough stress on non-oil sectors to severely undermine Ghana's medium term development prospects. Hence the huge premium and responsibilities put on Ghana's successive authorities to wisely manage the oil wealth to promote the development of the non-oil sectors.

Planning for Higher Oil Prices : Power Sector Impact in Latin America and the Caribbean

Yépez-García, Rigoberto Ariel; San Vicente Portes, Luis; García, Luis Enrique
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Energy Study
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.47%
A scenario with higher oil prices has important implications for diverting from oil-based technologies to renewables, as well as gas, coal, and nuclear alternatives. By 2030, energy demand in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) is expected to double from 2008 levels. A key issue is deciding on the most appropriate mix of fuels for power generation, given the various prices of energy sources and technologies, as well as availability of renewable energy. The study's broad aim is to evaluate the impact of higher oil prices on the cost of generating electricity in countries of the LAC region so that better-informed energy policy planners can buffer future adverse effects. The study defines high oil prices as those above United States (U.S.) $100 per barrel. This price is considered a reasonable starting point for discussion given the recent range in oil prices, which averaged $95 a barrel in 2011. A price of $150 per barrel is defined as considerably high yet plausible given historical and current price levels...

Global Economic Prospects and the Developing Countries 2000

World Bank
Fonte: World Bank: Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank: Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication; Publications & Research
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.56%
Developing countries are now recovering from the worst ravages of the financial crisis of 1997-98. However, the recovery is both uneven and fragile, and many countries continue to struggle in the aftermath. In addition to a review of international economic developments, this report considers three areas where the crisis has had a major impact on growth and welfare in the developing world. First, the crisis has increased poverty in the East Asian crisis countries, Brazil, and the Russian Federation, and elsewhere. Chapter 2 reviews the evidence on the crisis' social impact on East Asia and other developing countries, and addresses the broader issue of the impact of external shocks on poverty in developing countries. Second, though the East Asian crisis countries are experiencing a strong cyclical recovery, severe structural problems remain. Chapter 3 outlines the depth of the problems faced by the corporate and financial sectors of these economies, analyzes the challenges facing the restructuring process, and discusses the appropriate role of government in supporting restructuring and reducing systemic risk. Third, exchange rate depreciations and declines in demand in East Asia exacerbated the fall in primary commodity prices that began in 1996. Chapter 4 examines how the most commodity-dependent economies in the world--the major oil exporting countries and the non-oil exporters of Sub-Saharan Africa--have adjusted to the commodity price cycle.

An Empirical Growth Model for Major Oil Exporters

Esfahani, Hadi Salehi; Mohaddes, Kamiar; Pesaran, M. Hashem
Fonte: Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge, UK Publicador: Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge, UK
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.64%
(DISCLAIMER: Not all mathematical symbols in the abstract will display properly - please see the abstract in the pdf). This paper develops a long-run growth model for a major oil exporting economy and derives conditions under which oil revenues are likely to have a lasting impact. This approach contrasts with the standard literature on the Dutch disease and the resource curse, which primarily focuses on short-run implications of a temporary resource discovery. Under certain regularity conditions and assuming a Cobb-Douglas production function, it is shown that (log) oil exports enter the long-run output equation with a coefficient equal to the share of capital ?. The long-run theory is tested using quarterly data on nine major oil economies, six of which are current members of OPEC (Iran, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela), plus Indonesia which is a former member, and Mexico and Norway, which are members of the OECD. Overall, the test results support the long-run theory. The existence of long-run relations between real output, foreign output and real oil income is established for six of the nine economies considered. The exceptions, Mexico and Norway, do not possess sufficient oil reserves for oil income to have lasting impacts on their economies. At their current production rates...

MENA Economies Hit by Conflicts, Civil Wars, and Lower Oil Prices

Mottaghi, Lili
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Brief; Publications & Research :: Brief; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.63%
Against the backdrop of a slowing global economy and lower commodity prices, economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is stagnating. The World Bank 2015 MENA economic monitor report projects overall gross domestic product (GDP) growth to be less than 3 percent for the third year running - about 2.8 percent for 2015. Low oil prices, conflicts, and the global economic slowdown make short-term prospects of recovery unlikely. In a positive scenario of decreasing tensions in Libya, Iraq, and Syria, together with recovery in the Euro area that can boost external demand, growth in the region can rebound to 4.4 percent in 2016 and the following year. However, if current circumstances persist, overall growth is not expected to recover any time soon. Since the 2011 Arab spring, though not necessarily because of it, the MENA region has seen a slowdown in economic growth, an escalation of violence and civil war and, more recently, substantial macroeconomic imbalances from lower oil prices.