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Business Cycles, Core and Periphery in Monetary Unions: comparing Europe and North America

Lopes, Alexandra Ferreira; Pina, Álvaro
Fonte: ISEG – Departamento de Economia Publicador: ISEG – Departamento de Economia
Tipo: Outros
Publicado em //2008 ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.44%
We compare Europe with the USA and Canada as regards business cycle synchronization and core-periphery patterns. A long sample (1950-2005) makes it possible to study how these aspects have evolved over time. Results support the economic viability of EMU. Average cyclical correlations among European countries have risen significantly, reaching levels close to, or even higher than, those of North American regions. Applying fuzzy clustering to the analysis of core-periphery issues, we find Europe to actually outperform North America: the core-periphery divide is milder, and peripheral status seems generally less protracted.

Coordination and Crisis in Monetary Unions

Aguiar, Mark; Amador, Manuel; Farhi, Emmanuel; Gopinath, Gita
Fonte: National Bureau of Economic Research Publicador: National Bureau of Economic Research
Tipo: Conference Paper
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.46%
We characterize fiscal and monetary policy in a monetary union with the potential for rollover crises in sovereign debt markets. Member-country fiscal authorities lack commitment to repay their debt and choose fiscal policy independently. A common monetary authority chooses inflation for the union, also without commitment.  We first describe the existence of a fiscal externality that arises in the presence of limited commitment and leads countries to over borrow; this externality rationalizes the imposition of debt ceilings in a monetary union. We then investigate the impact of the composition of debt in a monetary union, that is the fraction of high-debt versus low-debt members, on the occurrence of self-fulfilling debt crises. We demonstrate that a high-debt country may be less vulnerable to crises and have higher welfare when it belongs to a union with an intermediate mix of high- and low-debt members, than one where all other members are low-debt. This contrasts with the conventional wisdom that all countries should prefer a union with low-debt members, as such a union can credibly deliver low inflation. These findings shed new light on the criteria for an optimal currency area in the presence of rollover crises.; Economics

Till Geography Do Us Part? Prolegomena to an Economic and Monetary Union between the Dominican Republic and Haiti

Moreira, Emmanuel Pinto
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.76%
This paper offers a preliminary assessment of the potential benefits and costs of an economic and monetary union (EMU) between the Dominican Republic and Haiti -- two countries sharing the same island but whose history is one of conflict and divergent economic prospects in recent decades. After a brief review of the historical context, it examines the nature of these potential benefits and costs. It then conducts a preliminary analysis (using basic statistical techniques) of some key criteria for the formation of an economic and monetary union between the two countries. A more formal analysis of business cycle synchronization, based on basic and extended integrated vector auto-regression models with exogenous variables (VARX), is developed next. Overall, the analysis suggests that at this stage several economic criteria are not satisfied for the two countries to fully benefit from an economic and monetary union. At the same time, however, the endogeneity of most of these criteria (including the degree of business cycle synchronization) militates in favor of an aggressive medium-term agenda for integration between them.

Intertemporal Adjustment and Fiscal Policy Under a Fixed Exchange Rate Regime

Aloy, Marcel; Moreno-Dodson, Blanca; Nancy, Gilles
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.53%
The paper presents a dynamic model for small to medium open economies operating under a fixed exchange rate regime. The model provides a partial explanation of the channels through which fiscal and monetary policy affects the real exchange rate. An empirical investigation is conducted for the case of Argentina during the currency board period of 1991-2001. Empirical estimates show that fiscal policy may indeed be an efficient instrument for promoting macroeconomic stability insofar as it encourages convergence toward long-run equilibrium and alters the long-term balance between exports and consumption, both private and public. The simulation applied to Argentina shows that if the share of public spending in the economy is higher than the share of imports, an increase in the tax rate will stimulate capital stock slightly, at least in the short term, and depreciate the real effective exchange rate. In the long run, the fiscal policy affects the value of the real exchange rate and consequently external competitiveness.

Fiscal Rules and the Pro-Cycylicality of Public Investment in the West African Economic and Monetary Union

Dessus, Sébastien; Diaz Sanchez, Jose Luis; Varoudakis, Aristomene
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.48%
Evidence from a large panel of low-income and lower middle-income countries over the period 1995–2012 suggests that, contrary to other countries, public investment in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) has been pro-cyclical. Public investment contracts more in “bad times” than it increases in “good times” and appears to have become pro-cyclical since the introduction of the fiscal convergence criteria in 1994. The pro-cyclicality of public expenditure and the high asymmetry of shocks that affect WAEMU countries justify exploring options for greater counter-cyclicality of rules-based fiscal frameworks and for risk-sharing.

Financial Sector Assessment : Barbados

World Bank; International Monetary Fund
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.54%
The financial system faces a weak economic outlook and a deteriorating fiscal position posing substantial macroeconomic risks. As a result, sovereign risk has increased while the fixed exchange rate further limits policy options. The financial system has sizeable sovereign risk exposures and non-performing loans are rising although high capital and liquidity buffers in combination with strong parent entities mitigate risks. Credit unions appear more vulnerable. Since the 2008 financial sector assessment program (FSAP), the regulatory and supervisory framework has improved across all sectors. Consolidated risk-based supervision was introduced in the banking sector along with a formalization of supervisory methodologies. The government has committed a major adjustment package aimed at stabilizing international reserves and consolidating the fiscal position. Even if planned policies are successful, Barbados will continue to face challenging growth prospects, driven by weakened tourism markets, including Canada, the United Kingdom...

Multilateral Trade Liberalization and Political Disintegration : Implications for the Evolution of Free Trade Aareas and Customs Unions

Schiff, Maurice
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.76%
The author combines two theories - one about how multilateral trade liberalization affects regional integration, the other about how it affects political disintegration - to explain why the ratio of free trade areas to customs unions has increased over time. Ethier argues (1998, 1999) that multilateral trade liberalization led to the recent wave of regional integration arrangements. Alesina and others (1997), in discussing the number and size of countries, argue that multilateral trade liberalization leads to political disintegration, with an increase in the number of countries. Combining the two arguments, the author hypothesizes that as multilateral trade liberalization proceeds, and the number of regional integration arrangements increases, the ratio of free trade areas to customs unions also increases. The data, which show that ratio increasing in the 1990s, are consistent with the hypothesis.

Will the Euro Trigger More Monetary Unions in Africa?

Honohan, Patrick; Lane, Philip R.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.96%
The authors analyze the prospects for greater monetary integration in Africa, in the wake of the European Monetary Union. They argue that the structural characteristics of African economies, are quite different from those of European economies, but that much can be gained from monetary cooperation - as an external agency of restraint, and for promoting stability in the financial sector. But one should not expect too much from such arrangements. There is little evidence of contagious attacks on African currencies requiring the coordination of exchange rate policies. And economies of scale in the prudential regulation of financial systems, could be achieved through international cooperation without the need for a common currency. The same is true of enhanced risk-pooling through the financial system. The European Monetary Union has only a marginal impact on the net benefits of monetary cooperation, but the euro would be a natural anchor for any African monetary union - especially if the United Kingdom, and the sterling were to join the European Monetary Union. Indeed, the most likely route to new monetary cooperation in Africa, is through a common peg to the euro.

European Monetary Union in Africa

Muller, Karis
Fonte: Universidade Nacional da Austrália Publicador: Universidade Nacional da Austrália
Tipo: Working/Technical Paper Formato: 113379 bytes; 351 bytes; application/pdf; application/octet-stream
EN_AU
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.54%
Introduction: European enlargement generally refers to the inclusion of new states into the European Union’s Treaty area. This article considers instead the enlargement of Economic and Monetary Union into Africa. We know that no part of Africa is in the EU, though Morocco has sought to join, and the island of Mayotte belongs to an EU member state (France) and uses the euro. But the EU’s single currency area is not identical with its monetary area. This article is about EMU beyond the EU itself, and in particular about the monetary shadow European colonial history has cast over western and central Africa. Here as well as in the Comoros islands three local currencies were long in the monetary area of France, and are now but local expressions of the euro. That was why in the late 1990s the impending introduction of the single European currency aroused considerable interest and some anxiety in those African countries that faced possible inclusion in the EU’s monetary union. The question was whether the EC institutions should take over responsibly for monetary policy in the former French African overseas territories, although they are not in the EU now, and were never part of the EEC before independence. Alternatively, experts in Europe and in Africa considered whether France should maintain its monetary guarantee...

Essays on fiscal policy in a monetary union

ONORANTE, Luca
Fonte: Instituto Universitário Europeu Publicador: Instituto Universitário Europeu
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado
EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.54%
Defence date: 24 November 2006; Examining board: Prof. Michael J. Artis ; Prof. Marco Buti ; Prof. Ilian Mihov ; Prof. Rick van der Ploeg

Currency Unions, Optimal Currency Areas and the Integration of Financial Markets: Central Europe from the Fourteenth to the Sixteenth Centuries

BOERNER, Lars; VOLCKART, Oliver
Fonte: European University Institute Publicador: European University Institute
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento Formato: application/pdf; digital
EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.51%
This paper employs a new method and dataset to estimate the effect of currency unions on the integration of financial markets in late medieval Central Europe. The analysis reveals that membership of a union strongly and significantly correlated with wellintegrated markets. We also examine whether currency unions were endogenous. Our results indicate that markets were significantly better integrated prior to the formation of a union. In addition, we show that currency unions established by autonomous merchant towns were better integrated than unions implemented by territorial rulers. The overall implication is that late medieval Central European monetary diversity was a corollary of weakly integrated markets.

Britain and Canada and their large neighboring monetary unions, part I

HOWARTH, David; VERDUN, Amy; PADFIELD, Melissa; YOUNG, Patricia; WILLETT, Thomas D.; ARTIS, Michael J.; LAIDLER, David; SCHEMBRI, Lawrence; GRUBEL, Herbert; CROWLEY, Patrick M.
Fonte: Instituto Universitário Europeu Publicador: Instituto Universitário Europeu
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.67%

Regional Debt in Monetary Unions: Is It Inflationary?

COOPER, Russell; KEMPF, Hubert; PELED, Dan
Fonte: Elsevier Science Bv Publicador: Elsevier Science Bv
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.39%
This paper studies the inflationary implications of interest bearing regional debt in a monetary union. Is this debt simply backed by future taxation with no inflationary consequences? Or will the circulation of region debt induce monetization by a central bank? We argue here that both outcomes can arise in equilibrium. In the model economy, there are multiple equilibria which reflect the perceptions of agents regarding the manner in which the debt obligations will be met. In one equilibrium, termed Ricardian, the future obligations are met with taxation by a regional government while in the other, termed Monetization, the central bank is induced to print money to finance the region's obligations. The multiplicity of equilibria reflects a commitment problem of the central bank. A key indicator of the selected equilibrium is the distribution of regional debt holdings. We show that regional governments, anticipating central bank financing of their debt obligations, have an incentive to create excessively large deficits. We use the model to assess the impact of some policy measures within a monetary union as well as dollarization. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Senegal - Policies and Strategies for Accelerated Growth and Poverty Reduction : A Country Economic Memorandum

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Country Economic Memorandum; Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.55%
This Country Economic Memorandum (CEM) finalized as the implementation period of the Poverty Reduction Strategy (PRSP) began, undertaken in a context of other significant investigations on PRSP themes. One of the main macroeconomic variables affecting growth and competitiveness of the Senegalese economy, is the nominal exchange rate, which, as a member of the West Africa Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU), its currency, the CFA franc, has a fixed parity to the Euro, and its issuance is governed for all members, by a single central bank, where the nominal exchange rate is not a policy variable under Senegal's direct control. This is why the CEM does not take up issues concerning the nominal exchange rate, however, several measures of the real exchange rate are examined. CEM chapters on human capital include treatment of PRSP-related issues in health and education. The chapters present a portrait of constraints hindering progress toward PRSP targets, and the main interrelated points, first, between health and education...

The SDR and Its Potential as an International Reserve Asset

Chelsky, Jeff
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Brief; Publications & Research
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.48%
Since the onset of the global financial crisis, there has been an upswing of interest among some prominent policy makers and academics in the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) Special Drawing Right (SDR) as a 'safe' international reserve asset. But preexisting constraints on the SDR and the magnitude of support required to push through the reforms necessary to enhance the SDR's role make it unlikely that ambitious aspirations for this 'quasi-currency' will be realized. Moreover, the case for enhancing the SDR's role has been somewhat overstated, as has the view that the current international monetary system requires the dominance of a single currency, namely the U.S. dollar. To a significant extent, U.S. dollar dominance is the result of specific policy choices by individual countries (for example, export-led growth strategies, close links to the U.S. dollar) rather than an inherent rigidity in the international monetary system. Many of the problems that some policy makers are seeking to address through a greater role for the SDR can more easily be achieved in the context of the continuing trend to a multicurrency reserve system.

Financial Sector Assessment : Poland

World Bank; International Monetary Fund
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP); Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.44%
Diversifying Poland's financial system to meet new demands while preserving its resilience and stability is the key task ahead for financial policymakers. Over the past decade, the financial system has grown rapidly and risks have been well managed along the way. To maintain this track record and supply the financial services needed to support the economy's growth, it will be important to develop nonbank financial intermediation, prepare for possible further consolidation and exit of financial institutions, especially cooperatives, credit unions (SKOKs), and small banks, and promote a competitive banking system, relying less on foreign funding. While these developments will be largely market driven, they need to be supported by enabling regulatory reform and the modernization of the financial oversight framework: supervision focused on risk management, including an independent systemic risk perspective, strong safety nets, and state-of-the-art resolution tools will be indispensable. A joint IMF-World Bank mission visited Poland from February 19 - March 6...

The Connection between Wall Street and Main Street : Measurement and Implications for Monetary Policy

Barattieri, Alessandro; Eden, Maya; Stevanovic, Dalibor
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.54%
This paper proposes a measure of the extent to which a financial sector is connected to the real economy. The Measure of Connectedness is a measure of the composition of assets, namely the share of credit to the non-financial sectors over the total credit market instruments. The aggregate Measure of Connectedness for the United States declines by about 27 percent in the period 1952-2009. The authors suggest that this increase in disconnectedness between the financial sector and the real economy may have dampened the sensitivity of the real economy to monetary shocks. They present a stylized model that illustrates how interbank trading can reduce the sensitivity of lending to the entrepreneur's net worth, thereby dampening the credit channel transmission of monetary policy. The Measure of Connectedness is interacted with both a structural vector autoregressive model and a factor-augmented vector autoregressive model for the United States economy. The analysis establishes that the impulse responses to monetary policy shocks are dampened as the level of connection declines.

The estimated effects of the euro on trade: why are they below historical effects of monetary unions among smaller countries?

Frankel, Jeffrey A.
Fonte: The London School of Economics and Political Science Publicador: The London School of Economics and Political Science
Tipo: Monograph; NonPeerReviewed Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em /06/2009 EN; EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.62%
Andy Rose (2000), followed by many others, has used the gravity model of bilateral trade on a large data set to estimate the trade effects of monetary unions among small countries. The finding has been large estimates: Trade among members seems to double or triple, that is, to increase by 100-200%. After the advent of EMU in 1999, Micco, Ordoñez and Stein and others used the gravity model on a much smaller data set to estimate the effects of the euro on trade among its members. The estimates tend to be statistically significant, but far smaller in magnitude: on the order of 10-20% during the first four years. What explains the discrepancy? This paper seeks to address two questions. First, do the effects on intra-euroland trade that were estimated in the euro's first four years hold up in the second four years? The answer is yes. Second, and more complicated, what is the reason for the big discrepancy vis-à-vis other currency unions? We investigate three prominent possible explanations for the gap between 15% and 200%. First, lags. The euro is still very young. Second, size. The European countries are much bigger on average than most of those who had formed currency unions in the past. Third, endogeneity of the decision to adopt an institutional currency link. Perhaps the high correlations estimated in earlier studies were spurious...

Essays on monetary and exchange rate policy in financially fragile economies

Fornaro, Luca
Fonte: London School of Economics and Political Science Thesis Publicador: London School of Economics and Political Science Thesis
Tipo: Thesis; NonPeerReviewed Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em /06/2013 EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.67%
In my thesis I study policy interventions, with particular attention to monetary and exchange rate policy, in financially fragile economies. The thesis is composed of four chapters, and each chapter deals with different forms of policy interventions and different dimensions of financial fragility. However, the four chapters share a common message: appropriately designed policies can play a key role in improving macroeconomic performance in economies vulnerable to the risk of financial crises. In the first chapter I consider the role of the exchange rate regime in determining the adjustment to episodes of global deleveraging. To achieve this goal, I develop a framework for understanding the international dimensions of episodes of debt deleveraging. During an episode of international deleveraging world consumption demand is depressed and the world interest rate is low, reflecting a high propensity to save. If exchange rates are allowed to float, deleveraging countries can depreciate their nominal exchange rate to increase production and mitigate the fall in consumption associated with debt reduction. The key insight is that in a monetary union this channel of adjustment is shut off, and therefore the falls in consumption demand and in the world interest rate are amplified. Hence...

A critique of the Maastricht road to European Monetary Union: Bringing labour market analysis back in.

Ishikawa, Junko
Fonte: London School of Economics and Political Science Thesis Publicador: London School of Economics and Political Science Thesis
Tipo: Thesis; NonPeerReviewed Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em //1999 EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.51%
This thesis criticises the current project of European Monetary Union, based on the Maastricht convergence criteria. It attempts to reinterpret the issue of economic convergence by looking into structural aspects from a political economic point of view. Taking a structural approach, I examine the socio-political sustainability of EMU. The thesis applies the theoretical framework set forth by the French regulation school. Drawing on the regulationists' notion of 'regime', the concept of structural / regime compatibility among member states is introduced. The need to study non-monetary regimes in assessing the viability of monetary union is stressed by drawing on the historical experiences of monetary unions in the 19th century - the Latin Monetary Union, the Scandinavian Monetary Union and the American Monetary Union. Among the non-monetary structural regimes, the examination of national labour market regimes is crucial. After the loss of exchange rates as a means of adjustment, labour market adjustment becomes the key in coping with asymmetric economic shocks. Labour market flexibility is considered to be the main weapon of adjustment in post-EMU Europe. The comparison of three main labour market regimes in Europe - France, Germany and Britain - shows that they diverge substantially in their adjustment mechanisms and in the nature of their flexibility. Following Robert Boyer...