Biblioteca Digital

Para estudar os chamados Sistemas a Eventos Discretos (SEDs), existe uma variedade de tipos de modelos, mas, entretanto, estes acabam tratando de aspectos sistêmicos específicos, da mesma forma que suas análises. Para ter uma visão mais completa de tais sistemas, é importante lidar com esses tipos heterogêneos de modelos e com as técnicas desenvolvidas para sua integração. Este trabalho foca na questão da representação computacional desses modelos e de como adequá-la à heterogeneidade e à integração desses modelos. No que diz respeito à heterogeneidade, é proposta uma descrição matemática das ferramentas computacionais de modelagem e análise de SEDs, com a qual se pode visualizar as interações entre a heterogeneidade dos modelos, o poder de expressão e de montagem de representações de modelos e os processamentos de análise. Baseado nesta descrição e considerando-se os diversos custos envolvidos, diversas características são analisadas, de modo que, ao final, determina-se quais aquelas que são favoráveis para o caso de heterogeneidade e integração de modelos. Porém, existe ainda a heterogeneidade inerente aos modelos que não pode ser eliminada e isso constitui um obstáculo no caso de ter de lidar com modelos heterogêneos...

Durante muitos anos tem-se usado a técnica de programação linear (Linear programming- LP) para abordar o problema do planejamento da produção em refinarias de petróleo. Esta técnica é baseada na linearização do comportamento não linear dos processos num conjunto particular de condições operacionais. Contudo, modelos lineares não são uma boa representação da operação dos processos de refino, pois estes envolvem diferentes operações físicas (separação de fases, mistura de correntes intermediárias, etc.) e químicas (reações de craqueamento, reações de hidrotratamento, etc.) caracterizadas pelo seu comportamento não linear. Como conseqüência, os resultados (plano de operação) de modelos de planejamento da produção baseados na técnica de programação linear são de difícil implementação na operação. Por outro lado, recentes avanços na capacidade de cálculo dos computadores, assim como nas ferramentas matemáticas (algoritmos de otimização) utilizadas para solucionar os modelos de planejamento da produção, permitem a implementação de modelos não lineares de processos em modelos de planejamento da produção. Este trabalho é focado na formulação de modelos de processos adequados (boa aproximação da operação e baixo custo computacional) para o planejamento da produção em refinarias de petróleo. Inicialmente...

OBJETIVOS: O estudo explorou diferentes métodos de séries temporais visando desenvolver um modelo para a previsão do volume diário de pacientes no Pronto Socorro do Instituto Central do Hospital das Clínicas da Faculdade de Medicina da USP. MÉTODOS: Foram explorados seis diferentes modelos para previsão do número diário de pacientes no pronto socorro de acordo com algumas variáveis relacionadas ao calendário e à temperatura média diária. Para a construção dos modelos, utilizou-se a contagem diária de pacientes atendidos no pronto socorro entre 1° de janeiro de 2008 a 31 de dezembro de 2010. Os primeiros 33 meses do banco de dados foram utilizados para o desenvolvimento e ajuste dos modelos, e os últimos três meses foram utilizados para comparação dos resultados obtidos em termos da acurácia de previsão. A acurácia foi medida a partir do erro médio percentual absoluto. Os modelos foram desenvolvidos utilizando-se três diferentes métodos: modelos lineares generalizados, equações de estimação generalizadas e modelos sazonais autorregressivos integrados de média móvel (SARIMA). Para cada método, foram testados modelos que incluíram termos para controlar o efeito da temperatura média diária e modelos que não incluíram esse controle. RESULTADOS: Foram atendidos...

In view of the growing supply of models in various domains and in different formats, and the potential benefits to organizations using them, this article proposes to (1) present the theoretical background to the organizational developments, (2) to propose a framework for defining organizational models of quality in HEIs, and (3) situate and discuss issues associated with the use of methodological approaches that employ, “as is” and “to be” models, but also “ought to be” models and the benefits of the use of sectorial essential models, in organizational interventions. Organizational intervention is a generic designation for any activity involving organizational change, in order to achieve benefits for the organization. The interventions that adopt information technologies, or at least, the introduction of significant changes in activities with a strong emphasis in information processing, are especially relevant. This definition comprises organizational interventions, which aim at implementing quality assurance processes. This work in progress emphasises the following representations: business processes; management indicators for a business’ sector; business conceptual model (ontology). These models correspond to good organizational practices of a specific sector...

Aim: To evaluate the reliability of linear measurements in virtual models by comparing measurements performed on virtual models obtained from alginate impression scans, plaster model and measurements performed on conventional plaster model. Methods: The sample comprised 26 randomly selected patients to have impressions of their upper and lower jaws taken using alginate and their bite registration using a wax bite. The virtual models were obtained by scanning the alginate impression and the plaster model in a laser surface scanner (R700; 3Shape, Copenhagen, Denmark), and the measurements were performed using the Ortho Analyser (3Shape) proprietary software. The linear measurements of the size of the teeth mesial to distal, arch perimeter, intercanine distance and intermolar distance in the upper and lower arches were performed on plaster models, digital impressions and digital models, by three observers and repeated after 15 days on 8 models for intra-observer evaluations. Data were tabulated and analyzed statistically. Intra-class correlation to check the agreement of intra and inter-observers and ANOVA test were used to analyze the differences between measurements of digital models from impression and digital models from plaster. Results: The results showed a statistically significant difference (pd"0.05) for the posterior teeth...

The National Institutes of Health–sponsored workshop “Translational Models for Musculoskeletal Tissue Engineering and Regenerative Medicine” was held to describe the utility of various translational models for engineered tissues and regenerative medicine therapies targeting intervertebral disc, cartilage, meniscus, ligament, tendon, muscle, and bone. Participants included leaders in the various topics, as well as National Institutes of Health and Food and Drug Administration. The Food and Drug Administration representatives provided perspectives and needs for studies supported by animal models. Researchers described animal models for specific tissues and addressed the following questions: (1) What are the unmet musculoskeletal clinical needs that may be addressed by tissue engineering and regenerative medicine? (2) Are there appropriate models available? (3) Are there needs to develop standardized animal models? (4) What are the translational pathways that lead to clinical trials and therapeutic development? The workshop provided an effective and succinct summary of the status of various animal models in musculoskeletal regenerative medicine. Although many models are available and serve well to answer a variety of questions, the general consensus was that there is a substantial need for improved and standardized animal models for tissue engineering and regenerative medicine of the musculoskeletal system...

This paper critically reviews existing energy demand forecasting methodologies highlighting the methodological diversities and developments over the past four decades in order to investigate whether the existing energy demand models are appropriate for capturing the specific features of developing countries. The study finds that two types of approaches, econometric and end-use accounting, are used in the existing energy demand models. Although energy demand models have greatly evolved since the early 1970s, key issues such as the poor-rich and urban-rural divides, traditional energy resources, and differentiation between commercial and non-commercial energy commodities are often poorly reflected in these models. While the end-use energy accounting models with detailed sector representations produce more realistic projections compared with the econometric models, they still suffer from huge data deficiencies especially in developing countries. Development and maintenance of more detailed energy databases...

BACKGROUND: With the growing use of pharmacokinetic (PK)-driven drug delivery and/or drug advisory displays, identifying the PK model that best characterizes propofol plasma concentration (Cp) across a variety of dosing conditions would be useful. We tested the accuracy of 3 compartmental models and 1 physiologically based recirculatory PK model for propofol to predict the time course of propofol Cp using concentration-time data originated from studies that used different infusion schemes. METHODS: Three compartmental PK models for propofol, called the “Marsh,” the “Schnider,” and the “Schüttler” models, and 1 physiologically based recirculatory model called the “Upton” model, were used to simulate the time course of propofol Cp. To test the accuracy of the models, we used published measured plasma concentration data that originated from studies of manual (bolus and short infusion) and computer-controlled (target-controlled infusion [TCI] and long infusion) propofol dosing schemes. Measured/predicted (M/P) propofol Cp plots were constructed for each dataset. Bias and inaccuracy of each model were assessed by median prediction error (MDPE) and median absolute prediction error (MDAPE), respectively. RESULTS: The M/P propofol Cp in the 4 PK models revealed bias in all 3 compartmental models during the bolus and short infusion regimens. In the long infusion...

Scalar population models, commonly referred to as count-based models, are based on time-series data of population sizes and may be useful for screening-level ecological risk assessments when data for more complex models are not available. Appropriate use of such models for management purposes, however, requires understanding inherent biases that may exist in these models. Through a series of simulations, which compared predictions of risk of decline of scalar and matrix-based models, we examined whether discrepancies may arise from different dynamics displayed due to age structure and generation time. We also examined scalar and matrix-based population models of 18 real populations for potential patterns of bias in population viability estimates. In the simulation study, precautionary bias (i.e., overestimating risks of decline) of scalar models increased as a function of generation time. Models of real populations showed poor fit between scalar and matrix-based models, with scalar models predicting significantly higher risks of decline on average. The strength of this bias was not correlated with generation time, suggesting that additional sources of bias may be masking this relationship. Scalar models can be useful for screening-level assessments...

Genetic and genomic data often contain unobservable or missing information. Applications of probabilistic models such as mixture models and hidden Markov models (HMMs) have been widely used since the 1960s to make inference on unobserved information using some observed information demonstrating the versatility and importance of these models. Biological applications of mixture models include gene expression data, meta-analysis, disease mapping, epidemiology and pharmacology and applications of HMMs include gene finding, linkage analysis, phylogenetic analysis and identifying regions of identity-by-descent. An important statistical and informatics challenge posed by modern genetics is to understand the functional consequences of genetic variation and its relation to phenotypic variation. In the analysis of whole-exome sequencing data, predicting the impact of missense mutations on protein function is an important factor in identifying and determining the clinical importance of disease susceptibility mutations in the absence of independent data determining impact on disease. In addition to the interpretation, identifying co-inherited regions of related individuals with Mendelian disorders can further narrow the search for disease susceptibility mutations. In this thesis...

Recent advances in computing make it practical to use complex hierarchical models. However, the complexity makes it difficult to see how features of the data determine the fitted model. This paper describes an approach to diagnostics for hierarchical models, specifically linear hierarchical models with additive normal or t-errors. The key is to express hierarchical models in the form of ordinary linear models by adding artificial `cases' to the data set corresponding to the higher levels of the hierarchy. The error term of this linear model is not homoscedastic, but its covariance structure is much simpler than that usually used in variance component or random effects models. The re-expression has several advantages. First, it is extremely general, covering dynamic linear models, random effect and mixed effect models, and pairwise difference models, among others. Second, it makes more explicit the geometry of hierarchical models, by analogy with the geometry of linear models. Third, the analogy with linear models provides a rich source of ideas for diagnostics for all the parts of hierarchical models. This paper gives diagnostics to examine candidate added variables, transformations, collinearity, case influence and residuals.; James S. Hodges

The meteorological characteristics of the drought of 2005 in Amazonia, one of the most severe in the last 100 years were assessed using a suite of seven regional models obtained from the CLARIS LPB project. The models were forced with the ERA-Interim reanalyses as boundary conditions. We used a combination of rainfall and temperature observations and the low-level circulation and evaporation fields from the reanalyses to determine the climatic and meteorological characteristics of this particular drought. The models reproduce in some degree the observed annual cycle of precipitation and the geographical distribution of negative rainfall anomalies during the summer months of 2005. With respect to the evolution of rainfall during 2004–2006, some of the models were able to simulate the negative rainfall departures during early summer of 2005 (December 2004 to February 2005). The interannual variability of rainfall anomalies for both austral summer and fall over northern and southern Amazonia show a large spread among models, with some of them capable of reproducing the 2005 observed negative rainfall departures (four out of seven models in southern Amazonia during DJF). In comparison, all models simulated the observed southern Amazonia negative rainfall and positive air temperature anomalies during the El Nino-related drought in 1998. The spatial structure of the simulated rainfall and temperature anomalies in DJF and MAM 2005 shows biases that are different among models. While some models simulated the observed negative rainfall anomalies over parts of western and southern Amazonia during DJF...

O presente trabalho analisa criticamente um conjunto de resultados sobre a fundamentação, simulação e aplicabilidade de alguns modelos fenomenológicos para Vibração Induzida por Vórtices, ou VIV. São estudados os modelos de Hartlen&Currie, 1970, de Iwan&Blevins, 1975, e de Facchinetti&de Langre&Biolley, 2004. O estudo foi desenvolvido com os propósitos: fundamentar, com base em resultados teóricos e experimentais existente na literatura, a representatividade do fenômeno de VIV através desta classe de modelos; obter resultados da simulação numérica destes modelos para posterior confrontação com dados experimentais disponíveis na literatura; discutir a possibilidade de aplicação destes modelos na prática da engenharia. A fundamentação dos modelos fenomenológicos é obtida do trabalho de Aranha, 2004, que conclui pela possibilidade teórica de representar os fenômeno de VIV através de um conjunto de equações diferenciais simplificadas. Este fato traz embasamento aos modelos fenomenológicos, que partem deste princípio de simplificação e resultam em equações similares àquelas desenvolvidas por Aranha. Para desenvolver a simulação numérica dos três modelos foi idealizado um programa de computação científica capaz de resolver numericamente as equações diferenciais ordinárias dos modelos...

Dissertação apresentada ao Instituto Superior de Contabilidade e Administração do Porto para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Gestão das Organizações, Ramo Gestão de Empresas Orientador: Professor Doutor Eduardo Manuel Lopes de Sá e Silva Co-orientador: Mestre Maria de Fátima Mendes Monteiro; Os últimos anos trouxeram muitas mudanças no cenário económico. Condições como avanços tecnológicos, a globalização e a crise que estamos a viver no nosso país, parecem ter sido fatores que ao contrário do que seria de esperar, influenciaram o desenvolvimento do empreendedorismo. Com vista a melhorar o seu desempenho no mercado, as start-ups acabam por adotar modelos para sintetizar toda a informação e tirar conclusões. Estes modelos são designados como business models. Nesta dissertação, proponho-me a desenvolver um modelo mais completo com base nos business models já existentes e testá-lo numa startup portuguesa. No primeiro capitulo da dissertação serão estudados cinco business models, sendo eles, Outcome-Driven Innovation, Blue Ocean Strategy, Customer Development, Customer Brand-Based Equity e Discovery Driven Planning. Seguidamente, no segundo capitulo, pretende-se integrar todos os business models num modelo bastante mais simples...

The literature on species abundance models is extensive and a great deal of new and important contributions have been published in the last three decades. Broadly speaking, one can recognize five families of species abundance models: i) purely statistical or classic models (Broken-stick, Log-normal, Logarithmic and Geometric series); ii) branching process (Zipf-Mandelbrot and Fractal branching models); iii) population dynamics (Neutral models included); iv) spatial distribution of individuals (Multifractal and HEAP models) and v) niche partitioning (Sugihara's breakage and Tokeshi models). Among these the neutral, the classic and the niche partitioning models have been the most applied to natural communities, the former having been more extensively discussed than the others in the last years. The objective of this paper is to comment some aspects of the classic, neutral and niche partitioning models in a way that the proposed distributions may contribute to the analysis of the empirical patterns of species abundance. In spite of the variety of models, the distributions in general vary between the log-normal and the logarithmic series. From these models the Power-Fraction, together with independent niche dimensions measures, are amenable to experimental tests and may offer answers on which resources are important in the structuring of biological communities.

With developing interest in power generation applications of thermoelectrics and the growing influence of advanced materials on thermoelectric device fabrication, there is an increased demand for better understanding of module-level behavior. Likewise, novel module geometries are being explored for higher performance and require sophisticated modeling methods. In addition to new geometrical design, transport phenomena, such as Thomson heating and contact resistances, aggravate the complexity of modeling thermoelectric modules (TEMs) and thus limit design capability. Typically, these effects are either approximated (or in some cases neglected entirely) with little exploration in to the validity of the underlying assumptions associated with the approximation. As such, standard models are often predicated on assumptions that cannot be made beyond very limited operating regimes. Consequently, most TEM analysis generally utilizes simplistic methods of modeling on a module-level scale, which introduce inaccuracies that must be redressed. Particularly with larger temperature gradients, typically negligible effects could begin to impact overall system performance. Material property temperature-dependency, combined with leakage effects...

AbstractThe present research aimed to estimate the volume of Eucalyptus clones using mixed models. The database was derived from an experiment of Eucalyptus clones, located in the Chapada do Araripe, semiarid of the Pernambuco State. 89 trees were cubed by the method Smalian at the age of seven and a half years. The model of Schumacher and Hall was used as a control for comparison with the nonlinear mixed models. The adjustments of the mixed models were performed by adopting six distinct structures for the matrix of variances and covariances. The selection the best equation was done using the Akaike information criterion (AIC) Test Likelihood Ratio (TRMV), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (EPAM) and Vuong test. According to the criteria adopted, mixed models obtain better adjustments when compared with the classical model of Schumacher and Hall, resulting in a decrease in mean absolute percentage error of 4.6% to 3.2%. Based on these results, the nonlinear mixed models appear quite effective for modeling the volume of Eucalyptus and tend to contribute to the reduction of inventory costs with greater accuracy.; O presente estudo teve como objetivo estimar o volume de clones de Eucalyptus utilizando modelos mistos. A base de dados foi proveniente de um povoamento de clones de Eucalyptus localizado na Chapada do Araripe...

The simultaneous analysis of thermal variables with normal distribution with the aim of checking if there is any significative correlation among them or if there is the possibility of making predictions of the values of some of them based on others’ values is considered a problem of great importance in statistics studies. The aim of this paper is to study the applicability of linear regression models in working environments’ thermal comfort studies, thus contributing for the comprehension of the possible environmental cooling, heating or winding needs. It starts with a bibliographical research, followed by a field research, data collection and and software statistical-mathematical data treatment. It was then performed data analysis and the construction of the regression linear models using the t and F tests for determining the consistency of the models and their parameters, as well as the building of conclusions based on the information obtained and on the significance of the mathematical models built.; The simultaneous analysis of thermal variables with normal distribution with the aim of checking if there is any significative correlation among them or if there is the possibility of making predictions of the values of some of them based on others’ values is considered a problem of great importance in statistics studies. The aim of this paper is to study the applicability of linear regression models in working environments’ thermal comfort studies...

http://dx.doi.org/10.5007/1980-0037.2009v11n1p1 O objetivo desse estudo foi comparar a composição corporal, taxa de metabolismo em repouso e ingestão alimentar entre adolescentes modelos e não modelos. Participaram do estudo 33 modelos e 33 não modelos, de 15 a 18 anos, pareadas por idade e IMC. A avaliação da composição corporal foi realizada por meio da técnica de pletismografia. A taxa de metabolismo em repouso (TMR) foi obtida pelo método da calorimetria indireta e a avaliação da ingestão alimentar foi realizada por meio de um registro alimentar de 3 dias alternados. Não houve diferença estatisticamente significante em relação aos valores médios de percentual de gordura corporal entre os grupos estudados (p>0,05). Entretanto, ao classificar as adolescentes quanto ao percentual de gordura corporal, observou-se que nenhuma modelo apresentou percentual de gordura corporal menor do que 15%, enquanto 15,2% das adolescentes não modelos apresentaram baixo percentual de gordura corporal (p<0,05). Os valores de TMR (kcal/d) foram semelhantes entre modelos (1367,22) e não modelos (1309,43) (p>0,05). Em relação à ingestão de energia, observou-se que a média de ingestão energética foi 1480,93kcal ± 582...

Aim: To evaluate the reliability of linear measurements in virtual models by comparing measurements performed on virtual models obtained from alginate impression scans, plaster model and measurements performed on conventional plaster model. Methods: The sample comprised 26 randomly selected patients to have impressions of their upper and lower jaws taken using alginate and their bite registration using a wax bite. The virtual models were obtained by scanning the alginate impression and the plaster model in a laser surface scanner (R700; 3Shape, Copenhagen, Denmark), and the measurements were performed using the Ortho Analyser (3Shape) proprietary software. The linear measurements of the size of the teeth mesial to distal, arch perimeter, intercanine distance and intermolar distance in the upper and lower arches were performed on plaster models, digital impressions and digital models, by three observers and repeated after 15 days on 8 models for intra-observer evaluations. Data were tabulated and analyzed statistically. Intra-class correlation to check the agreement of intra and inter-observers and ANOVA test were used to analyze the differences between measurements of digital models from impression and digital models from plaster. Results: The results showed a statistically significant difference (pd”0.05) for the posterior teeth...