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Liberdade, macroeconomia e felicidade: uma análise empírica de um painel de países; Freedom, macroeconomics and wappiness: an empirical analisys of a panel of countries

Corbi, Raphael Bottura
Fonte: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP Publicador: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP
Tipo: Dissertação de Mestrado Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 06/11/2007 PT
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O presente trabalho encontra evidências do papel das principais variáveis macroeconômicas e da liberdade sobre a felicidade dos indivíduos. Usando micro-dados de surveys de bem-estar subjetivo para mais de cem mil pessoas de 74 países, estimamos um modelo de Probit Ordenado. Baseados numa especificação microeconométrica de bem-estar padrão na literatura, controlando por efeitos regionais, tempo e características individuais, o PIB per capita apresenta efeitos positivos e decrescentes sobre o bem-estar reportado, sendo que ganhos de bem-estar proveniente do crescimento econômico parece desaparecer com o tempo, sugerindo uma forte adaptação das pessoas. Os custos das recessões parecem ser maiores do que a simples queda do PIB e o aumento do desemprego. Estimamos que um aumento na taxa de desemprego traz custos psíquicos equivalentes a US$450 para o cidadão médio. Estas evidências estabelecem a noção de que o desemprego tem efeitos negativos sobre o bem-estar mesmo daqueles que continuam empregados. Para os que realmente perdem o emprego, o custo das recessões é de cerca de US$11.400. A inflação parece ter um custo de US$88, na média, o que resulta numa taxa marginal de substituição entre desemprego e inflação de 5...

Ensaios aplicados de macroeconomia: taxa de câmbio e expectativas de inflação; Tests applied in macroeconomics: exchange rate expectations and inflation

Perdomo, Juan Pedro Jensen
Fonte: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP Publicador: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 07/11/2008 PT
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Esta tese de doutorado consiste em três ensaios aplicados de macroeconomia. O primeiro ensaio retoma o clássico resultado do artigo de Meese e Rogoff (1983), em que os autores encontram fortes evidências de que nenhum modelo estrutural para a taxa de câmbio supera as projeções de um modelo random walk. Neste primeiro ensaio, comparamos o erro das projeções para a taxa de câmbio, efetuadas por bancos, instituições financeiras e consultorias econômicas, captadas no ranking Top-5 do Banco Central do Brasil, com as projeções de um modelo random walk e um modelo estrutural, o de paridade não coberta de taxa de juros, para três horizontes de previsão. Os resultados mostram que o modelo random walk tem maior índice de acerto em comparação com os métodos utilizados pelas instituições participantes da pesquisa e em comparação ao método estrutural. Este índice de acerto aumenta com o prazo de projeção. O segundo ensaio trata dos determinantes das expectativas de inflação no Brasil. As expectativas de inflação são uma das mais importantes variáveis na determinação da inflação futura, determinando a condução da política monetária. Através de modelagem econométrica, encontramos que as variáveis que afetam as expectativas de inflação são: a) meta de inflação é a variável mais importante...

Ensaios sobre macroeconomia e mercado de trabalho; Essays on macroeconomics and labor market

Attuy, Guilherme de Moraes
Fonte: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP Publicador: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 17/08/2012 PT
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Os três artigos que compõem esta Tese possuem em comum a discussão da macroeconomia e o mercado de trabalho, para a investigação de problemas específicos. Desta forma, esta Tese busca preencher importantes lacunas presentes na literatura nacional e internacional. O primeiro artigo analisa os ciclos do desemprego brasileiro a partir de dados de fluxo de trabalhadores obtidos a partir da Pesquisa Mensal de Emprego (PME-IBGE). Usamos a abordagem proposta por Shimer (2007), que tenta controlar para eventual viés decorrente da agregação temporal nos dados do mercado de trabalho. Os dados brasileiros sugerem que a margem de ingresso para o desemprego (margem de separação) tem grande relevância para explicar os ciclos da taxa de desemprego no Brasil no período de março de 2002 a dezembro de 2010. Tais resultados indicam que o Brasil, relativamente a alguns países desenvolvidos, apresenta um mercado de trabalho com características mais próximas de um contexto com baixa regulamentação, ou seja, que o ingresso (e não a saída) no desemprego seria o principal responsável por sua flutuação. Além disso, a dinâmica da margem de separação, em relação a indicadores de atividade (PIB e Taxa de Desemprego), tem um comportamento claro (anticíclico e pró-cíclico...

Structuralist macroeconomics and new developmentalism

Bresser-Pereira, Luiz Carlos (Luiz Carlos Bresser)
Fonte: Fundação Getúlio Vargas Publicador: Fundação Getúlio Vargas
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This paper, first, presents some basic ideas and models of a structuralist development macroeconomics that complements and actualizes the thought of structuralist development economics that was dominant between the 1940s and the 1960s including in the World Bank. The new approach focus on the relation between the exchange rate and economic growth, and develops three interrelated models: the tendency to the overvaluation of the exchange, the critique of growth with foreign savings, and a model of the Dutch disease based on the existence of two exchange rate equilibriums: the “current” and the “industrial” equilibrium. Second, it summarizes “new developmentalism” – a sum of growth policies based on these models and on the experience of fast growing Asian countries

Macroeconomia ecológica : o desenvolvimento de abordagens e modelos a partir da economia ecológica; Ecological macroeconomics : the development of approaches and models from ecological economics

Beatriz Macchione Saes
Fonte: Biblioteca Digital da Unicamp Publicador: Biblioteca Digital da Unicamp
Tipo: Dissertação de Mestrado Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 04/03/2013 PT
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O principal objetivo da dissertação é discutir a necessidade de uma estrutura analítica que se pode chamar de macroeconomia ecológica e sistematizar o debate acerca do tema. O trabalho tem como hipótese que existe uma deficiência da economia ecológica, de caráter metodológico, no que diz respeito à discussão de políticas macroeconômicas. A abordagem econômico-ecológica considera o caráter biofísico e entrópico dos processos econômicos, que fundamenta sua crítica paradigmática ao mainstream da economia, mas ainda não consolidou uma macroeconomia correspondente a essa visão. Consideramos que esse seria um avanço importante, pois forneceria bases para a discussão de políticas e reformas macroeconômicas condizentes com a finalidade de viabilizar uma economia ecologicamente sustentável. Essa finalidade depende da compreensão de relações entre os sistemas econômico e ecológico, caracterizadas por grande grau de incerteza e complexidade, e da determinação da escala ótima da macroeconomia - que implica a necessidade de abandono do objetivo de promover o crescimento econômico ilimitado. Tendo em vista a perspectiva da economia ecológica, identificamos que o esforço de construção de uma macroeconomia ecológica tem tomado duas direções. A primeira é de aprofundar e sistematizar duas iniciativas...

Structuralist macroeconomics and the new developmentalism

Bresser-Pereira,Luiz Carlos
Fonte: Editora 34 Publicador: Editora 34
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: text/html
Publicado em 01/09/2012 EN
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This paper first presents some basic ideas and models of a structuralist development macroeconomics that complements and actualizes the ideas of the structuralist development economics that was dominant between the 1940s and the 1960s. A system of three models focusing on the exchange rate (the tendency to the cyclical overvaluation of the exchange rate, a critique of growth with foreign savings, and new a model of the Dutch disease) shows that it is not just volatile but chronically overvalued, and for that reason it is not just a macroeconomic problem; as a long term disequilibrium, it is in the core of development economics. Second, it summarizes "new developmentalism" - a sum of growth policies based on these models and on the experience of fast-growing Asian countries.

New consensus macroeconomics and inflation targeting: Keynesian critique

Arestis,Philip; Sawyer,Malcolm
Fonte: Instituto de Economia da Universidade Estadual de Campinas Publicador: Instituto de Economia da Universidade Estadual de Campinas
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: text/html
Publicado em 01/12/2008 EN
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A number of countries have adopted Inflation Targeting (IT) since the early 1990s in an attempt to reduce inflation to low levels. Since then, IT has been praised by most literature as a superior framework of monetary policy. We suggest that IT is a major policy prescription closely associated with the New Consensus Macroeconomics (NCM). This paper concentrates mainly on the IT aspects of the NCM. We address the theoretical foundations of IT. This is followed by an assessment of its theoretical foundations, where a number of aspects are discussed. We then turn our attention to an assessment of the empirical work on IT, where we distinguish the work that has been done utilising structural macroeconomic models, and work based in single equation techniques. The IT theoretical framework and the available empirical evidence do not appear to support the views of the proponents.

14.452 Macroeconomic Theory II, Spring 2002; Macroeconomic Theory II

Blanchard, Olivier (Olivier J.)
Fonte: MIT - Massachusetts Institute of Technology Publicador: MIT - Massachusetts Institute of Technology
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The basic machines of macroeconomics. Ramsey, Solow, Samuelson-Diamond, RBCs, ISLM, Mundell-Fleming, Fischer-Taylor. How they work, what shortcuts they take, and how they can be used. Half-term subject. From the course home page: Course Description This is the second course in the four-quarter graduate sequence in macroeconomics. Its purpose is to introduce the basic models macroeconomists use to study fluctuations. The course is organized around nine topics/sections: Fluctuations and Facts The basic model: the consumption/saving choice Allowing for a labor/leisure choice (the RBC model) Allowing for non trivial investment decisions Allowing for two goods Introducing money Introducing price setting Introducing staggering of price decisions Applications to fiscal and monetary policy

14.05 Intermediate Applied Macroeconomics, Fall 2002; Intermediate Applied Macroeconomics

Temin, Peter
Fonte: MIT - Massachusetts Institute of Technology Publicador: MIT - Massachusetts Institute of Technology
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Uses the tools of macroeconomics to study three macroeconomic policy problems in depth. Possible topics include long-run economic growth, the macroeconomics of the transition to a modern capitalist society, federal government surpluses and deficits, Social Security, the distribution of earnings and income, and the Great Depression. Requires a 20-page paper on a subject related to one of the topics considered in the class. Credit not given for both 14.05 and 14.06. From the course home page: Course Description This subject considers three topics of macroeconomics that are alive and controversial for policy today. The topics are: exchange-rate regimes- their role in the Great Depression and today; economic growth- the roles of capital accumulation, increased education, and technological progress in determining economic growth; and savings- the effect of government and private debt on economic growth.

Post-Macroeconomics : Reflections on the Crisis and Strategic Directions Ahead

Monga, Celestin
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
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For decades, many researchers argued that economics had nothing to fear from enriching itself with lessons and advances from other disciplines. Unfortunately, these suggestions were either neglected or dismissed upfront in what was then arbitrarily considered mainstream economics. The global crisis has led even Nobel Prize winners to acknowledge that the problem facing economists and policy makers today is mostly intellectual - it is the need to confront the systematic failure of thinking, especially on the part of macroeconomists. Despite its unprecedented magnitude and heavy financial, human, and intellectual cost, the crisis certainly does not invalidate everything that has been learned about macroeconomics. However, the costs highlight some of mistakes of the dominant intellectual macroeconomic framework. Post-macroeconomics should not be understood as another metanarrative of the end of metanarratives. The use of the prefix post here suggests and emphasizes much more than temporal posterity. Post-macroeconomics should follow from macroeconomics more than it follows after macroeconomics. The theorizing of post-macroeconomics is therefore neither systematically oppositional nor hegemonic. It does not advocate a - dialectic opposition - between macroeconomics and post-macroeconomics. Rather...

Essays on international macroeconomics and conflict analysis

Bhattacharya, Prasad Sankar
Fonte: FIU Digital Commons Publicador: FIU Digital Commons
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: application/pdf
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This dissertation addressed two broad problems in international macroeconomics and conflict analysis. The first problem in the first chapter looked at the behavior of exchange rate and its interaction with industry-level tradable goods prices for three countries, USA, UK and Japan. This question has important monetary policy implications. Here, I computed to what extent changes in exchange rate affected prices of consumer, producer, and export goods. I also studied the timing of these changes in these prices. My results, based on thirty-four industrial prices for USA, UK and Japan, supported the view that changes in exchange rates significantly affect prices of industrial and consumer goods. It also provided an insight to the underlying economic process that led to changes in relative prices. In the second chapter, I explored the predictability of future inflation by incorporating shocks to exchange rates and clearly specified the transmission mechanisms that link exchange rates to industry-level consumer and producer prices. Employing a variety of linear and state-of-the-art nonlinear models, I also predicted growth rates of future prices. Comparing levels of inflation obtained from the above approaches showed superiority of the structural model incorporating the exchange rate pass-through effect. The second broad issue addressed in the third chapter of the dissertation investigated the economic motives for conflict...

Essays on International Macroeconomics

PRADES, Elvira
Fonte: Instituto Universitário Europeu Publicador: Instituto Universitário Europeu
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado Formato: application/pdf; digital
EN
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This thesis deals with different topics on international macroeconomics, in particular on business cycles in small open economies, the motives for net foreign asset accumulation and the transmission of shocks in an international framework. The three chapters deal with very different issues and different degrees of modeling complexity. There is an eternal discussion between the trade-off between simple models that target to understand a little piece of the macroeconomic mechanism and more complex models that are closer to reality. The first two chapters are more simple and their main contribution relies on the analysis of very particular issues, such as the role of expectations and the role of risk aversion. The last chapter tackles with a sophisticated 2-country model with vertically integrated firms to analyze the transmission of shocks.; Defence date: 23 September 2008; Examining board: Prof. Giancarlo Corsetti, EUI, Supervisor ; Prof. Alejandro Cunat, London School of Economics ; Dr. Luca Dedola, European Central Bank ; Prof. Salvador Ortigueira, EUI

Three essays in macroeconomics and finance

PUY, Damien
Fonte: Instituto Universitário Europeu Publicador: Instituto Universitário Europeu
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado Formato: application/pdf; digital
EN
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This thesis addresses three issues in the fields of macroeconomics and international finance. The first chapter examines how institutional investors, such as mutual funds and hedge funds, tend to transmit economic and financial shocks across borders. Using a novel micro-level dataset on portfolio investments from a vast number of funds located in advanced markets, I find strong evidence of contagion propagating through the fund industry. Changes in economic and financial conditions in advanced markets generate global waves of portfolio inflows (outflows) with a massive impact on emerging markets’ funding. I illustrate this finding by deriving contagion maps showing where contagion spreads and with what intensity. I also find that countries that are politically unstable and that are remote from the main financial centers are the main victims of such contagion. Overall, the results clearly suggest that push effects from advanced market investors affect developing countries and expose them to sudden stops and surges. The second chapter, co-authored with Shekhar Aiyar, Romain Duval, Longmei Zhang and Yiqun Wu, investigates the existence, and potential determinants, of the so-called “middle income trap”, defined as the phenomenon of rapidly growing economies stagnating at middle-income levels and failing to graduate into the ranks of high income countries. We examine the middle-income trap as a special case of growth slowdowns and identify slowdowns as large sudden and sustained deviations from the growth path predicted by a basic conditional convergence framework. We then examine their determinants by means of probit regressions...

Essays in applied macroeconomics

MERTENS, Karel
Fonte: Instituto Universitário Europeu Publicador: Instituto Universitário Europeu
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado Formato: Paper; application/pdf
EN
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Defence date: 3 December 2007; Examining board: Prof. Giancarlo Corsetti, EUI, Supervisor ; Prof. Wouter Den Haan, University of Amsterdam ; Prof. Mark Gertler, New York University ; Prof. Rick Van der Ploeg, EUI; First made available online 4 June 2015.; The first chapter, 'How the Removal of Deposit Rate Ceilings Has Changed Monetary Transmission in the US: Theory and Evidence' is concerned with US monetary history and the impact of institutional changes in the late 1970s and early 1980s on the monetary transmission mechanism. The chapter presents evidence on a phenomenon of disintermediation occurring during the major recessions in the 1960s and 1970s, but absent ever since. Using a novel data set, I show that disintermediation is closely linked to the existence of deposit rate ceilings that were imposed under regulation Q of the Federal Reserve System. Disintermediation potentially has real effects if the resulting shortage of loanable funds forces banks to cut back on lending to borrowers that rely on intermediated finance. The main hypothesis of Chapter 1 is that regulation-induced disintermediation affected the monetary transmission mechanism during the 1960s and 1970s and provided the Federal Reserve with greater leverage over real activity than afterwards. In a monetary DSGE model that incorporates deposit rate ceilings as occasionally binding constraints...

Three Essays in International Macroeconomics

RABITSCH, Katrin
Fonte: Instituto Universitário Europeu Publicador: Instituto Universitário Europeu
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado Formato: application/pdf
EN
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Defense date: 19/05/2008; Examining Board: Prof. Giancarlo Corsetti, EUI, supervisor Prof. Philippe Martin, Université Paris 1 Panthéon Sorbonne Prof. Vincenzo Quadrini, University of Southern California Prof. Rick Van der Ploeg, EUI and University of Oxford; This thesis deals with a number of different topics in the field of international macroeconomics. It proposes theoretical models of the open economy to think about and analyze questions such as the effects of financial globalization, countries' external adjustment mechanism, international relative prices, or the world's state of global imbalances.

Fiscal policy under alternative exchange rate regimes : on the specification of money demand in new open economy macroeconomics; Fiskalpolitik unter alternativen Wechselkursregimen : über die Spezifikation der Geldnachfrage in der neuen offenen Makroökonomik

Steffen, Dirk
Fonte: Universität Tübingen Publicador: Universität Tübingen
Tipo: Dissertation; info:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesis
EN
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The transmission of monetary and fiscal policies in an international context is one of the most prominent topics in the realm of international finance. In particular, researchers are interested in the effects of the respective policy on exchange rate movements, international price level differentials, output stimulation, and welfare effects. Since Mundell (1963) and Fleming (1962) economists try to address these issues by formal models. While well established not only in the scientific arena but also in practice, international macro-models of the Mundell-Fleming (MF) type have a severe drawback: the entire absence of microfoundations results in the use of ad-hoc welfare criteria for the evaluation of alternative policy regimes. Moreover, MF models do not account for intertemporal budget constraints which are very important for a deeper understanding of exchange rate and current account dynamics. Starting with the publication of the seminal Redux model of Obstfeld and Rogoff (1995), a new promising strand of the international macroeconomics literature emerged, that combines rigorous microfoundations with the MF assumption of nominal rigidities. This approach allows for an explicit welfare analysis on the basis of the households' preference structure. Today...

In search of a canonical history of macroeconomics in the interwar period: Haberler's Prosperity and Depression revisited

Boianovsky,Mauro
Fonte: Fundação Getúlio Vargas Publicador: Fundação Getúlio Vargas
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: text/html
Publicado em 01/09/2000 EN
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The article investigates the methodological foundations of Gottfried Haberler's 1937 classic Prosperity and Depression and their influence on Haberler's assessment of theories prevailing before The General Theory and of Keynes's impact on macroeconomics. It is argued that Haberler was influenced by the ideas of the philosopher of social sciences Felix Kaufmann, whose 1936 book on methodology was instrumental in Haberler's emphasis on the distinction between tautological and empirical statements in economics. Haberler's cristicism of Hayek's capital shortage explanation of the crisis, as well as his rejection of Keynes' equilibrating mechanism through income changes and his scepticism towards econometric modelling of the business cycle, stem in large part from his views on method.

An account of new developmentalism and its structuralist macroeconomics

Bresser-Pereira,Luiz Carlos
Fonte: Editora 34 Publicador: Editora 34
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: text/html
Publicado em 01/09/2011 EN
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This is a personal account of the definition of "new developmentalism" - a national development strategy alternative to the Washington consensus -, and of a "structuralist development macroeconomics": the sum of models that justifies theoretically that strategy. It is personal account of a collective work involving Keynesian, institutionalist and structuralist economists in Brazil that are forming a new school of thought in Brazil: a Keynesian-structuralist school. It is Keynesian because it emphasizes the demand side or the investment opportunities' side of economic growth. It is institutionalist because institutions obviously matter in achieving growth and stability. It is structuralist because it defines economic development as a structural change from low to high value added per capita industries and because it is based on two structural tendencies that limit investment opportunities: the tendency of wages to grow below productivity and the tendency to the cyclical overvaluation of the exchange rate.

Macroeconomics of extensive margins : a simple model

Arespa, Marta
Fonte: Xarxa de Referència en Economia Aplicada (XREAP) Publicador: Xarxa de Referència en Economia Aplicada (XREAP)
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em //2011 ENG
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How do monopolistically competitive industries react to shocks in the context of a New Keynesian macro model? I bridge macroeconomics and trade theory by considering market dynamics. I use an analytically tractable closed-economy model with endogenous entry of firms and show the implications of markets structure for the transmission of real shocks on aggregate variables and welfare. Shock sources become crucial for the results: traditional productivity shocks cause an extensive effect on production; shocks on innovation cause an intensive impact. More patient populations bring the economy to a richer market, although it cushions the extensive effect after an innovation shock.

New consensus macroeconomics and inflation targeting: Keynesian critique

Arestis, Philip; Sawyer, Malcolm
Fonte: Universidade Estadual de Campinas - Instituto de Economia - Setor de Publicações Publicador: Universidade Estadual de Campinas - Instituto de Economia - Setor de Publicações
Tipo: info:eu-repo/semantics/article; info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion; ;
Publicado em 08/01/2016 EN
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A number of countries have adopted Inflation Targeting (IT) since the early 1990s in an attempt to reduce inflation to low levels. Since then, IT has been praised by most literature as a superior framework of monetary policy. We suggest that IT is a major policy prescription closely associated with the New Consensus Macroeconomics (NCM). This paper concentrates mainly on the IT aspects of the NCM. We address the theoretical foundations of IT. This is followed by an assessment of its theoretical foundations, where a number of aspects are discussed. We then turn our attention to an assessment of the empirical work on IT, where we distinguish the work that has been done utilising structural macroeconomic models, and work based in single equation techniques. The IT theoretical framework and the available empirical evidence do not appear to support the views of the proponents.