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Seychelles - Selected Issues : Social Protection, Labor Market and Public Enterprise Reforms - Public Expenditure Review 2

World Bank
Fonte: World Bank Publicador: World Bank
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.54%
Until 2008, Seychelles pursued a state-led economic model of self sufficiency which ultimately proved unsustainable. In 2008, precipitated by rising global commodity prices, Seychelles entered a balance of payments and debt crisis, as international reserves were virtually depleted and external debt service payments were missed. The Government of Seychelles responded quickly by floating the rupee and liberalizing the foreign exchange regime, and agreeing a program with the International Monetary Fund under a 2 year stand-by agreement in November 2008. Although the liberalization of the exchange rate in November 2008 led to initial inflation rates in excess of 60 percent, the relative prices shock was quickly absorbed. Annual inflation fell from a high of positive 63.3 percent in December 2008 to negative 1.0 in August 2010. As the price and foreign exchange controls were lifted, the informal market in foreign currency quickly disappeared. This Public Expenditure Review (PER) also provided the Bank with an analytical basis to inform development policy lending in 2010. The specific objectives of the review are to: (i) provide an update on the macroeconomic stabilization efforts and changes to the fiscal policy for medium term debt sustainability and a more efficient and affordable public sector; (ii) analyze key public enterprise reform issues...

Comparing Constraints to Economic Stabilization in Macedonia and Slovakia: Macroestimates with Micronarratives

Melecky, Martin; Najdov, Evgenij
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.62%
This article re-emphasizes the link from structural policies to enhanced macroeconomic stabilization using a small structural model estimated on quarterly data for Macedonia and Slovakia over 1995-2007. The success of macroeconomic stabilization, typically in the hands of monetary policy, is not only determined by a suitable choice of the nominal anchor, which shapes the reaction function of monetary policy, but also the constraints within which the monetary policy strives to achieve its objectives. The key attributes of the constraints to macroeconomic stabilization are economic rigidities and structural shocks. By benchmarking the estimated economic rigidities and structural shocks faced by Macedonia to those faced by Slovakia, we find that Macedonia has relatively weaker transmission mechanisms of monetary policy, higher output rigidity, a lower exchange rate pass-through, and faces larger external shocks. For Macedonia, these relatively higher constraints on monetary policy together with the chosen exchange rate anchor result in higher output and inflation volatility relative to Slovakia. Hence, it appears that small open economies with stronger economic rigidities should apply monetary policy regimes that allow for more flexible adjustments in external relative prices to enhance their macroeconomic stability.

Lessons from World Bank Research on Financial Crises

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.52%
The benefits of financial development and globalization have come with continuing fragility in financial sectors. Periodic crises have had real but heterogeneous welfare impacts and not just for poor people; indeed, some of the conditions that foster deep and persistent poverty, such as lack of connectivity to markets, have provided a degree of protection for the poor. Past crises have also had longer-term impacts for some of those affected, most notably through the nutrition and schooling of children in poor families. As in other areas of policy, effective responses to a crisis require sound data and must take account of incentives and behavior. An important lesson from past experience is that the short-term responses to a crisis-macroeconomic stabilization, trade policies, financial sector policies and social protection-cannot ignore longer-term implications for both economic development and vulnerability to future crises.

Comparing Constraints to Economic Stabilization in Macedonia and Slovakia : Macro Estimates with Micro Narratives

Melecky, Martin; Najdov, Evgenij
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.72%
This paper re-emphasizes the link from structural policies to enhanced macroeconomic stabilization using a small structural model estimated on quarterly data for Macedonia and Slovakia over 1995-2007. The success of macroeconomic stabilization, typically in the hands of monetary policy, is not only determined by a suitable choice of the nominal anchor, which shapes the reaction function of monetary policy, but also the constraints within which the monetary policy strives to achieve its objectives. The key attributes of the constraints to macroeconomic stabilization are economic rigidities and structural shocks. By benchmarking the estimated economic rigidities and structural shocks faced by Macedonia to those faced by Slovakia, the authors find that Macedonia has relatively weaker transmission mechanisms of monetary policy, higher output rigidity, and a lower exchange rate pass-through, and faces larger external shocks. For Macedonia, these relatively higher constraints on monetary policy together with the chosen exchange rate anchor result in greater output and inflation volatility relative to Slovakia. Hence...

Regaining Fiscal Sustainability and Enhancing Effectiveness in Croatia : A Public Expenditure and Institutional Review

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.49%
The report presents the macroeconomic setting, and fiscal developments in the 1990s in Croatia, a country facing an unparalleled opportunity towards sustainable growth, and integration into the European Union. Nonetheless, the country needs to sustain macroeconomic stabilization, and improve the investment climate. To this effect, public sector reform needs to be oriented to diminish the size of the state, and reduce the fiscal deficit to sustain macroeconomic stability in the medium term. Yet, the scope for reducing the deficit through revenue increases is limited, even though a decrease in the tax burden would be highly desirable. This means that most of the adjustment will need to be made in public expenditures, particularly by identifying, and implementing policies that will reduce the level of expenditures, while improving their effectiveness; thus, budgetary management improvement will be critical to this effort. The report analysis indicates that the current budget in Croatia is not a comprehensive measure of all fiscal activity...

Croatia - Regaining Fiscal Sustainability and Enhancing Effectiveness : A Public Expenditure and Institutional Review

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.61%
The report presents the macroeconomic setting, and fiscal developments in the 1990s in Croatia, a country facing an unparalleled opportunity towards sustainable growth, and integration into the European Union. Nonetheless, the country needs to sustain macroeconomic stabilization, and improve the investment climate. To this effect, public sector reform needs to be oriented to diminish the size of the state, and reduce the fiscal deficit to sustain macroeconomic stability in the medium term. Yet, the scope for reducing the deficit through revenue increases is limited, even though a decrease in the tax burden would be highly desirable. This means that most of the adjustment will need to be made in public expenditures, particularly by identifying, and implementing policies that will reduce the level of expenditures, while improving their effectiveness; thus, budgetary management improvement will be critical to this effort. The report analysis indicates that the current budget in Croatia is not a comprehensive measure of all fiscal activity...

Macroeconomic Stability in Developing Countries:How Much is Enough?

Montiel, Peter; Servén, Luis
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, D.C. Publicador: World Bank, Washington, D.C.
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.61%
In the 1990s macroeconomic policies improved in a majority of developing countries, but the growth dividend from such improvement fell short of expectations, and a policy agenda focused on stability turned out to be associated with a multiplicity of financial crises. The authors take a retrospective look at the content and implementation of the macroeconomic reform agenda of the 1990s. They review the progress achieved with fiscal, monetary, and exchange rate policies across the developing world, and the effectiveness of the changing policy framework in promoting stability and growth. The main lesson is that slow growth and frequent crises resulted, more often than not, from shortcomings in the reform agenda of the 1990s. These shortcomings essentially concern the depth and breadth of the macroeconomic reform agenda, its attention to macroeconomic vulnerabilities, and the complementary reforms outside the macroeconomic sphere.

Human Capital and Earnings Inequality in Brazil, 1988-98 : Quantile Regression Evidence

Arabsheibani, G. Reza; Galrão Carneiro, Francisco; Henley, Andrew
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.47%
The authors undertake an empirical examination of rates of return to human capital for men in Brazil, through the period of macroeconomic stabilization and trade liberalization, using data from the 1988, 1992, and 1998 Brazilian household surveys (Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domic�os, PNAD). The authors estimate simultaneous quantile equations to gain an insight on the impact of human capital on wages across the hourly earnings distribution. They conclude that there is evidence of growing inequality in rates of return to education in Brazil. But the authors find evidence that education is no longer used as a screening device in the labor market, but rather rewarded for its innate association with higher productivity. Although increases in rates of return to education have been more pronounced at the top of the earnings distribution, this has not led to increased inequality. This is because the levels of education and other labor market-rewarded endowments have increased and offset the rate of return effect.

Give Growth and Macroeconomic Stability in Russia a Chance

Pinto, Brian; Drebentsov, Vladimir; Morozov, Alexander
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.58%
The authors analyze the links between Russias disappointing growth performance in the second half of the 1990s, its costly and unsuccessful stabilization, the macroeconomic meltdown of 1998, and the spectacular rise of non-payments. Non-payments flourished in an environment of fundamental inconsistency between a macroeconomic policy geared at sharp disinflation, and a microeconomic policy of bailing enterprises out through soft budget constraints. Heavy untargeted implicit subsidies flowing through the non-payments system (amounting to 10 percent of GDP annually) have stifled growth, contributed to the August 1998 meltdown, through their impact on public debt, and have made at best a questionable contribution to equity. Dismantling this system must be a top priority, along with promoting enterprise restructuring and growth (by hardening budget constraints) and medium-term macroeconomic stability (by reducing the size of subsidies). Getting the government out of the non-payments system means settling all appropriately controlled budgetary expenditures on time...

Ten Years of Transformation

Wyplosz, Charles
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento
ES
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.63%
After surveying the facts and distilling the voluminous literature on the transition to market economies, the author arrives at several conclusions: with hindsight, the old debate - Big Bang versus gradualism - was really a problem of feasibility, although many of the arguments in favor of the Big Bang have now been proven right. Once more, inflation has been found to be incompatible with growth and the importance of a good microeconomic structure - especially an effective banking system - has been confirmed. The decline of the state in transition economies is both spectacular and puzzling - combining features that are both desirable and dangerous. Among useful lessons learned: 1) It has paid to start early and move fast. The Big Bang is highly desirable but impractical, and gradualism is unavoidable but ought to be compressed as much as possible. The countries that bit the bullet early and hard have done better over the past decade. 2) Stabilize first; growth next. Macroeconomic stabilization is a prerequisite for growth. The budget deficit need not be eliminated...

Thailand - Social and Structural Review : Beyond the Crisis - Structural Reform for Stable Growth

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.53%
Following the East Asian financial crisis, the Bank's involvement in Thailand intensified, enabling a multifaceted stabilization, and structural reform dialogue, which deepened the economic, financial, and sector knowledge of the country. The study benefits from this analytical work, and provides an overview on the ongoing policy dialogue, regarding short- and medium-term reform, through a number of instruments. To promote longer-term growth, the country embarked on a twin strategy of macroeconomic stabilization, and structural reform. Although its flexible labor market, and support mechanisms diminished the crisis' impact on unemployment, and poverty, compared to other countries in the region, this ability to moderate the impact of the economic crisis, could adversely impact a prolonged crisis. The study examines steps to strengthen public sector social programs, and institutional capacity, envisaging coherent poverty support programs in a timely manner, while speeding fiscal stimulus effects, and, monitoring poverty through reliable information...

Romania - Restructuring for EU Integration--The Policy Agenda : Country Economic Memorandum, Volume 1. Summary Report

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Country Economic Memorandum; Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.52%
This Country Economic Memorandum (CEM) looks at the broad reform program, including institutional, governance, and economic restructuring reforms Romania is pursuing, which are anchored in its process for accession to the European Union (EU). The challenge is to expand integration with the EU more broadly throughout the economy, by relying on market driven mechanisms in a predictable rules-based policy environment, with the state sharply focused on the provision of essential public goods. Implementing the institutional reform agenda is the first priority in the accession-led reform, having the country the largest increase in its share of EU external imports among the Central Eastern European Countries (CEECs), with trade diversification providing a robust foundation for trade expansion. But, to deepen trade integration, Romania would need to broaden its trade performance throughout the economy. On restructuring the enterprise sector, the CEM indicates enterprise reform needs to be accelerated, and budget constraint discipline needs to be extended to the transaction interface between the state and enterprises. As for implementing agricultural transformation...

Romania - Restructuring for EU Integration--The Policy Agenda : Country Economic Memorandum, Volume 2. Main Report and Annexes

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Country Economic Memorandum; Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.54%
This Country Economic Memorandum (CEM) looks at the broad reform program, including institutional, governance, and economic restructuring reforms Romania is pursuing, which are anchored in its process for accession to the European Union (EU). The challenge is to expand integration with the EU more broadly throughout the economy, by relying on market driven mechanisms in a predictable rules-based policy environment, with the state sharply focused on the provision of essential public goods. Implementing the institutional reform agenda is the first priority in the accession-led reform, having the country the largest increase in its share of EU external imports among the Central Eastern European Countries (CEECs), with trade diversification providing a robust foundation for trade expansion. But, to deepen trade integration, Romania would need to broaden its trade performance throughout the economy. On restructuring the enterprise sector, the CEM indicates enterprise reform needs to be accelerated, and budget constraint discipline needs to be extended to the transaction interface between the state and enterprises. As for implementing agricultural transformation...

Montenegro - Debt Sustainability Analysis

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Debt and Creditworthiness Study; Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.56%
This report assesses Montenegro's public and external debt sustainability under alternative scenarios. The baseline scenario assumes continued implementation of a macroeconomic stabilization and structural reform program, while the low case scenario describes the alternative of a sluggish growth environment due to policy slippage/weak reform. In addition, other sensitivity tests are conducted in order to highlight the vulnerability of the baseline case to specific shocks. The report concludes that Montenegro's public debt would be highly sustainable if economic reforms continue at their current pace, and the 2007 fiscal policy is maintained over the coming years.

Sudan - Stabilization and Reconstruction : Country Economic Memorandum, Volume 1. Main Text

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Country Economic Memorandum; Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.75%
This Country Economic Memorandum is the first economic report in a decade. It gives priority to updating knowledge about the evolution of social and economic developments during the 1990s. It reviewareas of progress in macroeconomic reforms and the lack of success in governance and institutional reforms. Substantial reforms were undertaken in this period , but the civil war continued to have a serious negative impact on Sudan's people and its economic prospects. While the results of the reforms have been promising, particularly in the area of macroeconomic stabilization and liberalization, the distribution of economic wealth needs to improve. Although there has not been any national household survey since 1978, social indicators point to low levels of welfare throughout Sudan, with some indicators well below those in Sub-Saharan Africa. among the many issues facing the Sudanese economy are these: There has been high growth but skewed distribution. Stabilization has been costly in social terms: expenditures were cut by more than 50 percent relative to gross domestic product (GDP)...

Sudan - Stabilization and Reconstruction : Country Economic Memorandum, Volume 2. Statistical Appendices

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Country Economic Memorandum; Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.63%
This Country Economic Memorandum is the first economic report in a decade. It gives priority to updating knowledge about the evolution of social and economic developments during the 1990s. It reviewareas of progress in macroeconomic reforms and the lack of success in governance and institutional reforms. Substantial reforms were undertaken in this period , but the civil war continued to have a serious negative impact on Sudan's people and its economic prospects. While the results of the reforms have been promising, particularly in the area of macroeconomic stabilization and liberalization, the distribution of economic wealth needs to improve. Although there has not been any national household survey since 1978, social indicators point to low levels of welfare throughout Sudan, with some indicators well below those in Sub-Saharan Africa. among the many issues facing the Sudanese economy are these: There has been high growth but skewed distribution. Stabilization has been costly in social terms: expenditures were cut by more than 50 percent relative to gross domestic product (GDP)...

The Limits of Stabilization : Infrastructure, Public Deficits, and Growth in Latin America; Los limites de la estabilizacion : infraestructura, deficit publicos y crecimiento en America Latina

Easterly, William; Servén, Luis
Fonte: Palo Alto, CA: Stanford University Press; Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Palo Alto, CA: Stanford University Press; Washington, DC: World Bank
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication; Publications & Research :: Publication
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.61%
This book is organized as follows: Introduction; by William Easterly and Luis Serven Latin America's Infrastructure in The Era of Macroeconomic Crises; by Cesar Calderon, William Easterly, and Luis Serven The Output Cost of Latin America's Infrastructure Gap; by Cesar Calderon and Luis Serven Infrastructure Compression and Public Sector Solvency in Latin America; by Cesar Calderon, William Easterly, and Luis Serven Macroeconomic Effects of Private Sector Participation in Infrastructure; by Javier Campos, Antonio Estache, Noelia Martin, and Lourdes Trujillo. Regulation and Private Sector Participation in Infrastructure; by Sheoli Pargal

Sovereign Wealth Funds and Long-Term Development Finance : Risks and Opportunities

Gelb, Alan; Tordo, Silvana; Halland, Havard; Arfaa, Noora; Smith, Gregory
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.52%
Sovereign wealth funds represent a large and growing pool of savings. An increasing number of these funds are owned by natural resource exporting countries and have a variety of objectives, including intergenerational equity and macroeconomic stabilization. Traditionally, these funds have invested in external assets, especially securities traded in major markets. But the persistent infrastructure financing gap in developing countries has motivated some governments to encourage their sovereign wealth funds to invest domestically. This paper proposes some basic elements of a conceptual framework to create a system of checks and balances to help ensure that the sovereign wealth funds do not undermine macroeconomic management or become a vehicle for politically driven "investments." First, the risks and opportunities of domestic investment by sovereign wealth funds are analyzed. Central issues are the relationship of sovereign wealth fund financing to the budget process and to the procurement systems of sector ministries...

Stabilizing Intergovernmental Transfers in Latin America : A Complement to National/Subnational Fiscal Rules?

Gonzalez, Christian Y.; Rosenblatt, David; Webb, Steven B.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.65%
The traditional theory of fiscal federalism assigns the role of macroeconomic stabilization to the federal government. In addition to this long-standing theoretical result, there is empirical observation that federal governments in developing countries typically have cheaper and more stable access to capital markets, relative to subnational governments. Drawing on the recent experience of four large federal countries in Latin America-Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico--the authors examine how intergovernmental transfers affect the division of the burden of stabilization across the levels of government, when the nation as a whole faces economic fluctuations. Imposing stabilizing rules on federal transfers that protect subnational governments from fluctuations in the business cycle can serve two purposes. During boom periods, stabilizing rules prevent subnational governments' tendency to increase inflexible expenditures. And during downturns, stabilizing rules place the burden of borrowing at the federal level-the level most appropriate for macroeconomic stabilization and often the level with superior access to credit. Despite the logic of these rules...

Latvia's Macroeconomic Options in the Medium Term: Fiscal and Monetary Challenges of EU Membership

Monga, Celestin
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, D.C. Publicador: World Bank, Washington, D.C.
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.49%
Latvia's experience over the past decade shows that economic growth and real convergence can no longer be assumed to be exogenously driven processes determined by given technological improvements and relatively higher factor returns. Instead, it is an endogenously driven process led by many variables, including policy variables. European Union membership clearly brings enormous economic benefits to Latvia. However, it also brings important challenges on the macroeconomic front, especially prior to the adoption of the euro. Substantial progress has been made toward fiscal consolidation since the mid-1990s but several risks remain. Given the facts that domestic demand remains buoyant and that Latvia will have to accommodate the expenditure commitments associated with NATO and EU membership while simultaneously aiming to fulfill the medium-term goal of a balanced budget, a more prudent fiscal policy should be the main short-term policy objective. The authorities should therefore reassess their current medium-term budget framework and strengthen their fiscal rules so that off-budget spending is eliminated and controls over spending ministries and local government finances are reinforced. They should also rethink any further tax reductions until a clear strategy is designed for compensating for projected losses in government revenues. Monetary policy can contribute to sustainable growth and job creation in Latvia in the medium and long term by providing an environment for price stability. It will have to be complemented by further microeconomic reforms and prudent wage developments aligned with productivity growth.