Página 1 dos resultados de 2105 itens digitais encontrados em 0.009 segundos

Macroeconomic Stability and the Distribution of Growth Rates

Sirimaneetham, Vatcharin; Temple, Jonathan R.W.
Fonte: World Bank Publicador: World Bank
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.53%
It is often argued that macroeconomic instability can form a binding constraint on economic growth. Drawing on a new index of stability, threshold estimation is used to divide developing economies into two growth regimes, depending on a threshold level of stability. For the more stable group of countries, the output benefits of investment are greater, conditional convergence is faster, and measures of institutional quality have more explanatory power, suggesting that instability forms a binding constraint for the less stable group. Macroeconomic stability is also shown to dominate several other candidates for identifying distinct growth regimes.

Somalia Joint Needs Assessment : Macroeconomic Policy Framework and Data Development Cluster Report

World Bank; United Nations
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.42%
Since 1991, the Somali economy has suffered from droughts, the absence of government, and local conflicts. Unlike the 1970s and 1980s when most of the output of the small industrial sector and many services were provided by the public sector, there has been significant (but unmeasured) private investment in commercial ventures, including in trade and marketing; money transfer services; transport; communications; airlines; telecommunications; other services including construction and hotels; education and health; and fishery equipment. In regard to the macroeconomic policy framework, the short to medium-term objectives are to: establish and maintain macroeconomic stability; develop a stable currency and a sound and growing public revenues base; establish core civil service institutions along with accountable budgetary processes, public finance management, and revenue systems; and reestablish financial services. In addition, it is important to establish data systems to secure the data needed to monitor social and economic developments and to inform sound policy and institutional development.

Federal Republic of Yugoslavia - Breaking with the Past : The Path to Stability and Growth

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.45%
The study focuses on the renewed transition to democracy, and a market economy in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY), within the context of extremely difficult economic, and social conditions: poor macroeconomic outcomes, with sharp drops in output, and trade, and, very high inflation; severe enterprise, financial, and infrastructure deterioration; and, worsened social indicators, showing increased poverty levels. Although the Federal authorities implemented reforms in foreign trade policy, initiated customs administration reforms, and developed a plan for bank restructuring, these early successes were still on the path of difficult reforms, and institutional strengthening. The Federal, and Republican Governments, will require the adoption of transition reforms, and investment priorities to meet three inter-dependent challenges: restoring macroeconomic stability, and external balance; stimulating growth, and creating the basis for a sustainable supply response; and, improving the social well-being of the most vulnerable...

Brazil : Stability for Growth and Poverty Reduction

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.59%
The importance of macroeconomic stability for growth, and poverty reduction is now accepted in Brazil. As of 1964, the country followed responsible macroeconomic policies, in the pursuit of stability, reconfirmed by the new Government in January 2003. The report focuses strictly on three key macroeconomic issues, critical to assure stability, avoid crises, and hence allow poverty reduction on a sustainable basis. Though much has been achieved, stability, and higher growth in Brazil now depend on reforms along three main axes: Structural fiscal reforms, to allow flexible public spending towards a higher primary surplus; moving towards a different public debt composition; and, ensuring an external adjustment, sustainable and in tandem with higher growth. The report argues for reducing volatility, and uncertainty to achieve sustainable growth, and poverty reduction, and, based on its analysis, it further argues for a debt management strategy that includes gradual lengthening of maturity, and duration of debt; indexing more debt to prices...

Indonesia : Maintaining Stability, Deepening Reforms

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.46%
Indonesia experienced another year of modest growth amidst a hesitant global recovery, and a deteriorating investment climate. Significant progress was made in democratization, macroeconomic stability and fiscal sustainability, but growth did not pick up and progress in poverty reduction stalled. Growth remained largely consumption driven, as investors increasingly felt the pinch of a cooling investment climate and a weak legal system. The Bali bombing threatened to sink hopes for higher growth, but that risk has been mitigated thanks to the remarkable resolve the Government has shown in the aftermath of the tragedy. The swift action on security, a fiscal stimulus, and acceleration of structural reforms are likely to limit the damage of the attack. That same resolve should now be used to pursue the reforms that can accelerate growth, create jobs, and further reduce poverty. The Government must move now, before the elections distract politicians, or tempt them into taking popular, but harmful measures such as those recently taken in trade. The Government should stay the course on macroeconomic policies...

Macroeconomic Stability in Developing Countries:How Much is Enough?

Montiel, Peter; Servén, Luis
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, D.C. Publicador: World Bank, Washington, D.C.
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.55%
In the 1990s macroeconomic policies improved in a majority of developing countries, but the growth dividend from such improvement fell short of expectations, and a policy agenda focused on stability turned out to be associated with a multiplicity of financial crises. The authors take a retrospective look at the content and implementation of the macroeconomic reform agenda of the 1990s. They review the progress achieved with fiscal, monetary, and exchange rate policies across the developing world, and the effectiveness of the changing policy framework in promoting stability and growth. The main lesson is that slow growth and frequent crises resulted, more often than not, from shortcomings in the reform agenda of the 1990s. These shortcomings essentially concern the depth and breadth of the macroeconomic reform agenda, its attention to macroeconomic vulnerabilities, and the complementary reforms outside the macroeconomic sphere.

Public Debt Management and Macroeconomic Stability : An Overview

Montiel, Peter J.
Fonte: Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank Publicador: Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.48%
Recent research suggests that management of the public sector debt can have important effects on a country macroeconomic performance. This Public debt management and macroeconomic stability article provides an overview of the factors that the recent literature has identified as important in determining the optimal composition of the public debt. Based on this analysis, it attempts to establish general guidelines for public debt management in emerging economies. To retain market access and promote domestic financial market development, governments should generally finance themselves at market rates using a wide variety of securities. Beyond this general principle, the optimal composition of the public debt involves a tradeoff between enhancing the government anti-inflationary credibility and reducing the vulnerability of its budget to macroeconomic shocks. Consequently, the optimal composition of the debt depends on a country circumstances. Debt should be heavily weighted toward long-term nominal securities for governments that have anti-inflationary credibility and toward long-term indexed debt for those that do not.

Macroeconomic Stability in Developing Countries : How Much Is Enough?

Montiel, Peter; Servén, Luis
Fonte: Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank Publicador: Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.67%
Over the 1990s macroeconomic policies improved in most developing countries, but the growth dividend from this improvement fell short of expectations, and a policy agenda focused on stability turned out to be associated with a multiplicity of financial crises. This article examines the contents and implementation of the macroeconomic reform agenda of the 1990s. It reviews the progress achieved through fiscal, monetary, and exchange rate policies across the developing world and the effectiveness of the changing policy framework in promoting stability and growth. The main lesson is that more often than not slow growth and frequent crises resulted from shortcomings in the reform agenda of the 1990s. These concern limitations in the depth and scope of the reform agenda, its lack of attention to macroeconomic vulnerabilities, and its inadequate attention to complementary reforms outside the macroeconomic sphere.

Give Growth and Macroeconomic Stability in Russia a Chance

Pinto, Brian; Drebentsov, Vladimir; Morozov, Alexander
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.48%
The authors analyze the links between Russias disappointing growth performance in the second half of the 1990s, its costly and unsuccessful stabilization, the macroeconomic meltdown of 1998, and the spectacular rise of non-payments. Non-payments flourished in an environment of fundamental inconsistency between a macroeconomic policy geared at sharp disinflation, and a microeconomic policy of bailing enterprises out through soft budget constraints. Heavy untargeted implicit subsidies flowing through the non-payments system (amounting to 10 percent of GDP annually) have stifled growth, contributed to the August 1998 meltdown, through their impact on public debt, and have made at best a questionable contribution to equity. Dismantling this system must be a top priority, along with promoting enterprise restructuring and growth (by hardening budget constraints) and medium-term macroeconomic stability (by reducing the size of subsidies). Getting the government out of the non-payments system means settling all appropriately controlled budgetary expenditures on time...

Recent macroeconomic developments and implications for poverty and employment in Pakistan: the cost of foreign exchange reserve holdings in South Asia

Anwar, Talat
Fonte: Universidade Nacional da Austrália Publicador: Universidade Nacional da Austrália
Tipo: Working/Technical Paper Formato: 464509 bytes; 354 bytes; application/pdf; application/octet-stream
EN_AU
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.29%
After a retarded economic growth over the past few years, a recovery in economic growth rate began as result of faster growth in industrial sector and respectable growth in services sectors. Although macroeconomic stability has been achieved, the reduction in fiscal deficit was also at the expense of public sector development and social sector expenditure over the past few years. While acceleration and pattern of economic growth together with stagnant investment are not pro-poor since sufficient employment is not likely to be created, the recent surge in food inflation will hurt the poor. While economic reform programmes undertaken within the framework of IMF/World Bank over past 15 years were aimed at increasing efficiency and/or reducing poverty, the trends in various dimensions of poverty indicate that absolute poverty and inequality have worsened and progress in human development dimensions remained poor in Pakistan. Another striking development was the substantial improvement in the capital inflows in the form of workers remittances due to the increased scrutiny of undocumented foreign currency transaction after September 11. Since the focus of exchange rate and thus the monetary policy has been on avoiding the appreciation of Pak rupee to preserve export competitiveness...

Modeling the Impact of Large Infrastructure Projects; A Case Study from Niger--Macroeconomic Assessment of Public Investment Options

Beguy, Olivier; Dessus, Sébastien; Garba, Abdoulahi; Hayman, Jason; Herderschee, Johannes
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Working Paper; Publications & Research :: Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.42%
Evidence illustrates that investment in infrastructure is essential to accelerate inclusive growth. Indeed, a number of Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries have begun to devote greater resources to large-scale public investment projects. Nevertheless, while massive projects can potentially generate large benefits there are considerable risks. Cost overruns, poor implementation quality, inadequate operational and maintenance capacity, and negative social or environmental impacts can severely undercut a project’s anticipated social and economic returns. Moreover, projects, which are expensive to develop and maintain can impact on debt dynamics and in some cases macroeconomic stability. Yet, given the complex nature of such projects it is often difficult to ascertain whether it is worthwhile to proceed with a project and if so, how should it be financed and implemented. Historically, computable general equilibrium (CGE) models have been used to assess the prospective impacts of large public investment projects. However...

Nonperforming Loans in Sub-Saharan Africa : Causal Analysis and Macroeconomic Implications

Fofack, Hippolyte L.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.36%
This paper investigates the leading causes of nonperforming loans during the economic and banking crises that affected a large number of countries in Sub-Saharan Africa in the 1990s. Empirical analysis shows a dramatic increase in these loans and extremely high credit risk, with significant differences between the CFA and non-CFA countries, and substantially higher financial costs for the latter sub-panel of countries. The results also highlight a strong causality between these loans and economic growth, real exchange rate appreciation, the real interest rate, net interest margins, and interbank loans consistent with the causality and econometric analysis, which reveal the significance of macroeconomic and microeconomic factors. The dramatic increase in these loans is largely driven by macroeconomic volatility and reflects the vulnerability of undiversified African economies, which remain heavily exposed to external shocks. Simulated results show that macroeconomic stability and economic growth are associated with a declining level of nonperforming loans; whereas adverse macroeconomic shocks coupled with higher cost of capital and lower interest margins are associated with a rising scope of nonperforming loans. These results are supported by long-term estimates of nonperforming loans derived from pseudo panel-based prediction models.

Banking Policy and Macroeconomic Stability: An Exploration

Caprio, Gerard, Jr.; Honohan, Patrick
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, D.C. Publicador: World Bank, Washington, D.C.
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.43%
Whether and when does banking serve to stabilize the economy? The authors view the banking system as a filter through which foreign and domestic shocks feed through to the domestic economy. The filter can dampen or amplify the shocks through various credit market channels, including credit growth, import of foreign capital, and possibly interest rates. The question is whether the prudential quality of banking, as proxied by measures of regulatory quality and openness to foreign banking, amplify or dampen these shocks. The authors find that many of the regulatory characteristics that have been found to deepen a financial system and make it more robust to crises-notably those which empower the private sector-also appear to reduce the sector's ability to provide short-term insulation to the macro-economy. It is as if prudent bankers are reluctant to absorb short-term risks that, if neglected, might cause solvency and growth problems in the longer run. Forbearance might dampen short-term volatility, but at the expense of the longer run health of the banking sector and the economy. One way to avoid this apparent tradeoff is evident: banking systems which have a higher share of foreign-owned banks...

Indonesia Development Policy Report : Beyond Macroeconomic Stability

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Development Policy Review (DPR); Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.5%
The year 2004 will mark another crucial step in Indonesia's long-term transition. The country will go to the polls to elect new national and regional Parliaments, and for the first time in the history o f the Republic, to directly elect a President. This milestone in the country's democratization is accompanied by one in economic policy: for the first time since the onset o f the crisis, the Government will not have a program supported by the IMF. The Government's decision to graduate from its IMF program is warranted by the strong improvements in the country's macroeconomic conditions, and has been broadly welcomed by the markets and the international community. The Government's "Economic Policy Package Pre and Post IMF" or White Paper, issued as a presidential instruction on September 15th has helped build confidence in the Government's policies in the election year ahead. The policy package is intended to "bridge the credibility gap." The White Paper is a unique document: it is the first time that the Government commits itself transparently to a time-bound action plan to implement policies. The document shows continuity in macroeconomic policies and financial sector reforms...

Croatia Public Finance Review : Restructuring Spending for Stability and Growth

World Bank
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work; Economic & Sector Work :: Other Financial Sector Study
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.45%
The Croatia poverty rate, as measured by the international line of moderate poverty at dollar 5 in public-private partnership (PPP) terms, is estimated at 2.8 percent for 2012. The share of the population at risk of poverty, based on a higher national and relative poverty line, also declined substantially prior to the 2008 global financial crisis, although has subsequently increased markedly. The global financial crisis, with the loss of credit, has exposed Croatia's macroeconomic vulnerabilities. This report shows that without addressing macroeconomic weaknesses, through sustained fiscal adjustment and institutional reforms, Croatia will not be able to reignite higher growth and benefit fully from European Union (EU) membership, and the quest for future prosperity may prove elusive. Similarly, without accelerating structural reforms, especially in the area of labor market, investment climate, and public sector efficiency, Croatia will face further stifled competitiveness and any prospects for recovery of growth and jobs. Focusing on the fiscal and public sector related deficiencies...

Turkey - Country Economic Memorandum : Towards Macroeconomic Stability and Sustained Growth, Volume 1. Summary Report

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Country Economic Memorandum; Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.55%
This report addresses key questions facing Turkish policymakers: how to sustain the economic recovery that began in 2002 following the deep crisis of 2001, how to ensure disinflation and public debt sustainability, and how to foster broad-based and equitably distributed growth in the future. After a brief review of the 2001 crisis and the Government response, the report analyzes the economic opportunities and challenges facing Turkey, and identifies policies to build on the economic recovery which began in 2002. The CEM develops a comprehensive four-point agenda for sustainable and more equitably distributed growth. The agenda encompasses: (i) macroeconomic stability, (ii) effective government, (iii) improved business environment, and (iv) stronger social policies. The report closes with medium-term macroeconomic projections to illustrate Turkey's prospects under a scenario of sustained reform and to highlight the risks to growth and macroeconomic stability should the economic program go off track.

Turkey - Country Economic Memorandum : Towards Macroeconomic Stability and Sustained Growth, Volume 2. Main Report

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Country Economic Memorandum; Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.54%
This report addresses key questions facing Turkish policymakers: how to sustain the economic recovery that began in 2002 following the deep crisis of 2001, how to ensure disinflation and public debt sustainability, and how to foster broad-based and equitably distributed growth in the future. After a brief review of the 2001 crisis and the Government response, the report analyzes the economic opportunities and challenges facing Turkey, and identifies policies to build on the economic recovery which began in 2002. The CEM develops a comprehensive four-point agenda for sustainable and more equitably distributed growth. The agenda encompasses: (i) macroeconomic stability, (ii) effective government, (iii) improved business environment, and (iv) stronger social policies. The report closes with medium-term macroeconomic projections to illustrate Turkey's prospects under a scenario of sustained reform and to highlight the risks to growth and macroeconomic stability should the economic program go off track.

Turkey - Country Economic Memorandum : Towards Macroeconomic Stability and Sustained Growth, Volume 3. Statistical Annex

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Country Economic Memorandum; Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.46%
This report addresses key questions facing Turkish policymakers: how to sustain the economic recovery that began in 2002 following the deep crisis of 2001, how to ensure disinflation and public debt sustainability, and how to foster broad-based and equitably distributed growth in the future. After a brief review of the 2001 crisis and the Government response, the report analyzes the economic opportunities and challenges facing Turkey, and identifies policies to build on the economic recovery which began in 2002. The CEM develops a comprehensive four-point agenda for sustainable and more equitably distributed growth. The agenda encompasses: (i) macroeconomic stability, (ii) effective government, (iii) improved business environment, and (iv) stronger social policies. The report closes with medium-term macroeconomic projections to illustrate Turkey's prospects under a scenario of sustained reform and to highlight the risks to growth and macroeconomic stability should the economic program go off track.

Lao PDR Economic Monitor, January 2014 : Managing Risks for Macroeconomic Stability

World Bank
Fonte: Vientiane Publicador: Vientiane
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Economic Updates and Modeling; Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.39%
The sector focus for this issue concerns school based management, current conditions and recommendations for the future. Lao PDR's education system faces challenges in meeting its goals of providing all students with access to education and improving learning outcomes. The study presents a framework explaining how school based management can help improve education quality. The Lao economy is estimated to grow at 8.1 percent in 2013, fueled by a vibrant resource sector, continued FDI-financed investment in hydropower, and accommodative macro economic policies. Growth is projected to moderate to 7.2 percent in 2014, reflecting a small projected slowdown in some real sectors, mainly mining and construction. Inflationary pressures, mainly through food prices, are not showing signs of dissipating by end 2013. In FY12/13, the fiscal deficit widened markedly due to a combination of a large increase in public sector wages and benefits, and a decline in grants and mining revenues. The FY13/14 budget plan indicates a narrower fiscal deficit of about 4.3 percent. The risk of debt distress remains moderate...

Tightening Demand to Maintain Macroeconomic Balances : Lao PDR Economic Monitor, November 2012

World Bank
Fonte: World Bank, Vientiane Publicador: World Bank, Vientiane
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.29%
Global and regional economic development continues to face uncertainties in 2012. East Asia and the Pacific region's growth is estimated to slow down compared to 2011, but remains robust compared with other regions thanks to sustained domestic investment and consumption. Lao PDR continues to maintain robust growth this year but faces a challenge to manage domestic demand. On the supply side, the construction, services, industry and agriculture sectors are the main drivers of growth; while on the demand side, public spending and private investment including demand driven by preparations for the Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM) has played an important role in boosting the economy this year. In spite of robust growth, inflation has been declining, mostly on account of declining food and fuel inflation. However, home-grown and external risks associated with low reserves coverage, increased exposure to mining revenues, fast banking expansion with limited supervision capacity and a large number of newly announced large investment projects warrant close monitoring to preserve macroeconomic stability and sustainable growth. Stronger than expected revenue performance from the mining sector and external grants contributed to an improvement in the fiscal performance in FY11/12.With the contribution of mining revenue increasing...