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Inflation targeting and macroeconomic stability in a Post Keynesian economy

LIMA, Gilberto Tadeu; SETTERFIELD, Mark
Fonte: M E SHARPE INC Publicador: M E SHARPE INC
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
ENG
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This paper examines the compatibility of inflation targeting with an economy that is Post Keynesian in character. We show that in a Post Keynesian environment, policymakers can both set and achieve an inflation target without adverse consequences for the real economy, as long as an appropriate policy mix is chosen. The latitude that policymakers have in making this choice is investigated. One of our key results is that orthodox policy regimes do not provide appropriate policy mixes. Indeed, the more orthodox the policy regime becomes, the less viable is inflation targeting in a Post Keynesian economy.

Metas de inflação numa economia pós-keynesiana; Inflation targeting in a post-keynesian economics

André Luís Mota dos Santos
Fonte: Biblioteca Digital da Unicamp Publicador: Biblioteca Digital da Unicamp
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 16/09/2010 PT
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Esta tese examina a compatibilidade do sistema de metas de inflação com uma estrutura econômica que é caracterizada como pós-keynesiana. Essa estrutura é formada por três elementos: uma relação IS; uma relação como a curva de Phillips, mas com teor pós-keynesiano; e um processo adaptativo de formação de expectativas para a taxa de inflação. Políticas monetária e de rendas reagem ao desvio da inflação em relação a uma meta de inflação e/ou ao desvio do produto em relação a uma meta para o produto. Essas funções de reação para as políticas monetária e de rendas fecham o sistema, e diferentes funções de reação conformam diferentes sistemas dinâmicos. Expectativas dependem das taxas de inflação passadas e da taxa meta de inflação: elas são adaptadas em cada período tomando-se a discrepância entre o valor da inflação esperado e a média ponderada entre inflação observada e meta de inflação. A depender de qual desvio ou quais desvios compõem cada função de reação, a combinação de políticas pode ser classificada como pós-keynesiana, ortodoxa ou mesmo como contendo elementos de ambas as orientações. Uma combinação de funções de reação capaz de gerar convergência dos desvios do produto e da inflação em relação às respectivas metas de maneira que cada política seja independente uma da outra tem algum grau de compatibilidade com a estrutura da economia. A capacidade de convergência de cada sistema mede o grau de compatibilidade das políticas com a estrutura da economia. Para alcançar metas para produto e inflação...

Tackling youth unemployment in the European Union : in quest of Keynesian imprints since 2000 = Políticas de combate ao desemprego dos jovens da União Europeia: em busca de traços Keynesianos; Políticas de combate ao desemprego dos jovens da União Europeia : em busca de traços Keynesianos

Andreas Richard Ebisch
Fonte: Biblioteca Digital da Unicamp Publicador: Biblioteca Digital da Unicamp
Tipo: Dissertação de Mestrado Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 23/05/2014 PT
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A dissertação rastreou traços keynesianos nas políticas europeias de emprego 2000-2014. Foi dada atenção à inclusão dos jovens pouco qualificados. De especial interesse é a distinção entre as influências econômicas Pós-keynesiana e Novo keynesianas. O primeiro capítulo destacou a relevância do problema do desemprego dos jovens. O segundo capítulo traçou a teoria keynesiana e seu desenvolvimento. O terceiro capítulo distinguiu três períodos de 2000 a 2014. As políticas relevantes para o emprego dos jovens mudaram durante os períodos do pré-crise e da crise financeira e, posteriormente, com a crise da zona do euro. O capítulo predominantemente utilizou publicações da Comissão Europeia para espelhar a mudança na formulação de políticas da União Europeia. No quarto capítulo foi discutida a influência Pós-keynesiana e da Nova Economia keynesiana. A conclusão aponta que, apesar de 27 milhões de candidatos a emprego, os jovens são cada vez mais treinados para atender as demandas do mercado de trabalho, isso não muda o número limitado de 2 milhões de vagas de emprego. Conclui-se que as recentes políticas de desemprego na União Europeia carregam mais traços do Novo keynesianismo do que do Pós- keynesianismo...

Um modelo macrodinâmico pós-keynesiano de simulação

Oreiro,José Luís; Ono,Fábio Hideki
Fonte: Editora 34 Publicador: Editora 34
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: text/html
Publicado em 01/01/2007 PT
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A post-keynesian macro-dynamic model of simulation. The objective of this article is to present the structure and the simulation results of a one-sector macro-dynamic model that embeds some elements of the post-keynesian theory. The computational simulation of the model replicates some important features of capitalist dynamics as the phenomenon of cyclical growth, the long-run stability of the profit rate and functional distribution of income, the maintenance of idle-capacity in the long-run and the occurrence of a single episode of deep fall in real economic activity, which is in accordance with the rarity character of great crashes in the history of capitalism. Moreover, the simulation results show that a great reduction in inflation rate will be followed by an increase of financial fragility, increasing the like-hood of a great depression. As a policy advice derived from the simulation results, we can state that the Central Bank should never promote big reductions in inflation rate.

Post-Macroeconomics : Reflections on the Crisis and Strategic Directions Ahead

Monga, Celestin
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
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For decades, many researchers argued that economics had nothing to fear from enriching itself with lessons and advances from other disciplines. Unfortunately, these suggestions were either neglected or dismissed upfront in what was then arbitrarily considered mainstream economics. The global crisis has led even Nobel Prize winners to acknowledge that the problem facing economists and policy makers today is mostly intellectual - it is the need to confront the systematic failure of thinking, especially on the part of macroeconomists. Despite its unprecedented magnitude and heavy financial, human, and intellectual cost, the crisis certainly does not invalidate everything that has been learned about macroeconomics. However, the costs highlight some of mistakes of the dominant intellectual macroeconomic framework. Post-macroeconomics should not be understood as another metanarrative of the end of metanarratives. The use of the prefix post here suggests and emphasizes much more than temporal posterity. Post-macroeconomics should follow from macroeconomics more than it follows after macroeconomics. The theorizing of post-macroeconomics is therefore neither systematically oppositional nor hegemonic. It does not advocate a - dialectic opposition - between macroeconomics and post-macroeconomics. Rather...

A Keynesian critique of recent finance and macroeconomic applications of risk-sensitive and robust control theory / James Juniper.

Juniper, James
Fonte: Universidade de Adelaide Publicador: Universidade de Adelaide
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado Formato: 108298 bytes; application/pdf
Publicado em //2001 EN
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The objective of this thesis is to assess the strengths and weaknesses of recent economic applications of robust and risk-sensitive control theory from a Keynesian perspective.; Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Adelaide, Dept. of Economics, 2001?; Bibliography: leaves 479-544.; v, 544 leaves : ill. ; 30 cm.; Title page, contents and abstract only. The complete thesis in print form is available from the University Library.

Geoff Harcourt : his life and times in Adelaide

Hatch, John
Fonte: Radio Adelaide Publicador: Radio Adelaide
Tipo: Conferência ou Objeto de Conferência Formato: 66,994 KB; application/octet-stream
Publicado em //2007 EN
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Born in Melbourne in 1931, Geoff Harcourt graduated B. Comm. and M. Comm. at the University of Melbourne, and then went on to graduate as a PhD at Cambridge University. He returned to Australia in 1958 to take up a Lectureship at the University of Adelaide, where he was appointed to a Personal Chair in 1967. In 1982 he accepted a Fellowship at Jesus College, Cambridge, and a lectureship in Economics, and was subsequently promoted to Reader in the History of Economic Theory at Cambridge. Geoff Harcourt, a Keynesian economist in the broadest sense, is one of the few Australian economists whose writings have been absorbed by the leading economists of his generation.; Talk recorded at the University of Adelaide, Ira Raymond Exhibition Room, Barr Smith Library, Thursday 10 May 2007, at a free public talk hosted by the Friends.

The scientific illusion of New Keynesian monetary theory

Rogers, C.
Fonte: Oxford University Press Publicador: Oxford University Press
Tipo: Parte de Livro
Publicado em //2013 EN
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It is shown that New Keynesian monetary theory is a scientific illusion because it rests on moneyless Walrasian general equilibrium microfoundations. Walrasian general equilibrium models require a Walrasian or an Arrow-Debreu auction, but this auction is a substitute for money and empties the model of all the issues of interest to regulators and central bankers. The New Keynesian model perpetuates Patinkin’s “invalid classical dichotomy” and is incapable of providing any guidance on the analysis of interest rate rules or inflation targeting. In its cashless limit, liquidity, inflation, and nominal interest rate rules cannot be defined in the New Keynesian model.; Colin Rogers; Volume title: Theory and Origins

Regime Switching, Learning, and the Great Moderation

Murray, James
Fonte: Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research Publicador: Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento Formato: 713120 bytes; application/pdf
EN_US
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This paper examines the "bad luck" explanation for changing volatility in U.S. inflation and output when agents do not have rational expectations, but instead form expectations through least squares learning with an endogenously changing learning gain. It has been suggested that this type of endogenously changing learning mechanism can create periods of excess volatility without the need for changes in the variance of the underlying shocks. Bad luck is modeled into a standard New Keynesian model by augmenting it with two states that evolve according to a Markov chain, where one state is characterized by large variances for structural shocks, and the other state has relatively smaller variances. To assess whether learning can explain the Great Moderation, the New Keynesian model with volatility regime switching and dynamic gain learning is estimated by maximum likelihood. The results show that learning does lead to lower variances for the shocks in the volatile regime, but changes in regime is still significant in differences in volatility from the 1970s and after the 1980s.

Empirical Significance of Learning in a New Keynesian Model with Firm-Specific Capital

Murray, James
Fonte: Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research Publicador: Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento Formato: 1354229 bytes; application/pdf
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
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This paper examines the empirical significance of learning, a type of adaptive, boundedly rational expectations, in the U.S. economy within the framework of the New Keynesian model. Two popular specifications of the model are estimated: the standard three equation model that does not include capital, and an extended model that allows for endogenous capital accumulation. Estimation results for learning models can be sensitive to the choice for the initial conditions for agents expectations, so four different methods for choosing initial conditions are examined, including jointly estimating the initial conditions with the other parameters of the model. Maximum likelihood results show that learning under all methods for initial conditions lead to very similar predictions as rational expectations, and do not significantly improve the fit the model. The evolution of forecast errors show that the learning models do not out perform the rational expectations model during the run-up of inflation in the 1970s and the subsequent decline in the 1980s, a period of U.S. history which others have suggested learning may play a role. Despite the failure of learning models to better explain the data, analysis of the paths of expectations and structural shocks during the sample show that allowing for learning in the models can lead to different explanations for the data.

Empirical Significance of Learning in a New Keynesian Model with Firm-Specific Capital

Murray, James
Fonte: Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research Publicador: Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento Formato: 1141418 bytes; application/pdf
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
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Revised version of http://hdl.handle.net/2022/3124; This paper examines the empirical significance of learning, a type of adaptive, boundedly rational expectations, in the U.S. economy within the framework of the New Keynesian model. Two popular specifications of the model are estimated: the standard three equation model that does not include capital, and an extended model that allows for endogenous capital accumulation. Estimation results for learning models can be sensitive to the choice for the initial conditions for agents expectations, so four different methods for choosing initial conditions are examined, including jointly estimating the initial conditions with the other parameters of the model. Maximum likelihood results show that learning under all methods for initial conditions lead to very similar predictions as rational expectations, and do not significantly improve the fit the model. The evolution of forecast errors show that the learning models do not out perform the rational expectations model during the run-up of inflation in the 1970s and the subsequent decline in the 1980s, a period of U.S. history which others have suggested learning may play a role. Despite the failure of learning models to better explain the data...

Initial Expectations in New Keynesian Models with Learning

Murray, James
Fonte: Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research Publicador: Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento Formato: 837719 bytes; application/pdf
EN_US
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This paper examines how the estimation results for a standard New Keynesian model with constant gain least squares learning is sensitive to the stance taken on agents beliefs at the beginning of the sample. The New Keynesian model is estimated under rational expectations and under learning with three different frameworks for how expectations are set at the beginning of the sample. The results show that initial beliefs can have an impact on the predictions of an estimated model; in fact previous literature has exposed this sensitivity to explain the changing volatilities of output and inflation in the post-war United States. The results indicate statistical evidence for adaptive learning, however the rational expectations framework performs at least as well as the learning frameworks, if not better, in in-sample and out-of-sample forecast error criteria. Moreover, learning is not found to better explain time varying macroeconomic volatility any better than rational expectations. Finally, impulse response functions from the estimated models show that the dynamics following a structural shock can depend crucially on how expectations are initialized and what information agents are assumed to have.

Demand-Driven Propagation; Evidence from the Great Recession

Nguyen, Hu
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Working Paper; Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
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This paper provides empirical evidence for the Keynesian demand-driven propagation: initial rounds of job losses lead to additional rounds of job losses. The paper shows that U.S. counties with higher pre-existing exposure to tradable industries experienced larger job losses in non-tradable sectors during the Great Recession. This was arguably because laid-off tradable workers cut their consumption, which hurts local non-tradable firms. The finding is not driven by exposure to the construction sector, by the collapse in house prices, or by credit supply problems. In addition, the spillover is stronger when the focus is on the job losses of more income-elastic non-tradable sectors.

U.S. and Them : The Geography of Academic Research

Das, Jishnu; Do, Quy-Toan; Shaines, Karen; Srinivasan, Sowmya
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
ENGLISH
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Using a database of 76,046 empirical economics papers published between 1985 and 2004 in the top 202 economics journals, the authors report two associations. First, per-capita research output on a given country increases with the country's per capita gross domestic product (GDP). Regressions controlling for data availability and quality in the country, indicators of governance and the use of English yield an estimated research-GDP elasticity of 0.37; surprisingly, the United States (US) is not an outlier in the production of empirical research. Second, papers written about the US are far more likely to be published in the top five economics journals, even after the quality of research has been partially controlled for through fixed-effects for the authors' institutional affiliations; the estimates suggest that papers on the US are 2.6 percentage points more likely to be published in the top-five journals. This is a large effect because only 1.5 percent of all papers written about countries other than the US are published in the top-five journals. The authors speculate about the interpretations of these facts...

New Structural Economics : A Framework for Rethinking Development; Nueva economia estructural : un marco para reformular el desarrollo

Lin, Justin Yifu
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
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As strategies for achieving sustainable growth in developing countries are re-examined in light of the financial crisis, it is critical to take into account structural change and its corollary, industrial upgrading. Economic literature has devoted a great deal of attention to the analysis of technological innovation, but not enough to these equally important issues. The new structural economics outlined in this paper suggests a framework to complement previous approaches in the search for sustainable growth strategies. It takes the following into consideration: First, an economy's structure of factor endowments evolves from one stage of development to another. Therefore, the optimal industrial structure of a given economy will be different at different stages of development. Each industrial structure requires corresponding infrastructure (both "hard" and "soft") to facilitate its operations and transactions. Second, each stage of economic development is a point along the continuum from a low-income agrarian economy to a high-income industrialized economy...

Inflation dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve: an identification robust econometric analysis

DUFOUR, Jean-Marie; KHALAF, Lynda; KICHIAN, Maral
Fonte: Université de Montréal Publicador: Université de Montréal
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: 210562 bytes; application/pdf
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In this paper, we use identification-robust methods to assess the empirical adequacy of a New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) equation. We focus on the Gali and Gertler’s (1999) specification, on both U.S. and Canadian data. Two variants of the model are studied: one based on a rationalexpectations assumption, and a modification to the latter which consists in using survey data on inflation expectations. The results based on these two specifications exhibit sharp differences concerning: (i) identification difficulties, (ii) backward-looking behavior, and (ii) the frequency of price adjustments. Overall, we find that there is some support for the hybrid NKPC for the U.S., whereas the model is not suited to Canada. Our findings underscore the need for employing identificationrobust inference methods in the estimation of expectations-based dynamic macroeconomic relations.

Keynesian Economics After All

Johansen, A.; Simonsen, I.
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em 15/07/2011
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It is demonstrated that the US economy has on the long-term in reality been governed by the Keynesian approach to economics independent of the current official economical policy. This is done by calculating the two-point correlation function between the fluctuations of the DJIA and the US public debt. We find that the origin of this condition is mainly related to the wars that the USA has fought during the time period investigated. Wars mean a large influx of public money into the economy, thus as a consequence creating a significant economical upturn in the DJIA. A reason for this straight-cut result of our analysis, is that very few wars have been fought on US-territory and those that have, were in the 18th century, when the partial destruction of cities, factories, railways and so on, was more limited and with less effect on the over-all economy.; Comment: Latex, 4 pages, 1 figure

Bancos e crédito: a abordagem pós-keynesiana de preferência pela liquidez; Banking and credit: the post-Keynesian approach to liquidity preference

Paula, Luiz Fernando de
Fonte: Editora UFPR Publicador: Editora UFPR
Tipo: info:eu-repo/semantics/article; info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion; Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 10/04/2007 POR
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The essay presents the theory of banks liquidity preference asdeveloped by post-Keynesian economists. It starts by using Keynes´ ideas on the subject and adds the contribution of post-Keynesian economists. The essay closes with a discussion of the implications this approach will draw on banks strategies and on the volume of credit.; O artigo objetiva apresentar a teoria da preferência pela liquidezdos bancos desenvolvida por economistas pós-keynesianos. Para tanto, procura-se desenvolver as idéias originais de Keynes sobre o assunto, para em seguida incorporar as contribuições de outros autores pós-keynesianos. As implicações desta abordagem sobre as estratégias dos bancos e sobre o volume de crédito são também exploradas no texto.

Monetary policy under a New Keynesian perspective.

Montoro, Carlos
Fonte: London School of Economics and Political Science Thesis Publicador: London School of Economics and Political Science Thesis
Tipo: Thesis; NonPeerReviewed Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em //2007 EN
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This thesis studies monetary policy in a dynamic general equilibrium framework with nominal price rigidities. It analyses monetary policy in a non-linear environment and explores issues concerning optimal monetary policy. The introductory chapter sets out the motivation of the thesis and puts it into the framework of the existing literature. Chapter 2 provides a New Keynesian framework to study the interaction among oil price volatility, firms' pricing behaviour and monetary policy. We show that when oil is difficult to substitute in production, firms find optimal to charge higher relative prices as a premium in compensation for the risk that oil price volatility generates on their marginal costs. Chapter 3 uses the model laid out chapter 2 to investigate how monetary policy should react to oil shocks. The main result is oil price shocks generate a trade-off between inflation and output stabilisation when oil has low substitutability in production. Therefore it becomes optimal to the monetary authority to react partially to oil shocks and some inflation is desirable. In chapter 4 we extend a New Keynesian model considering preferences that exhibit intertemporal non-homotheticity. We show that under this framework the intertemporal elasticity of substitution becomes state dependent...

Dissent in economics: Making radical political economics and post Keynesian economics, 1960-1980.

Jorge Fernandes Mata, Tiago
Fonte: London School of Economics and Political Science Thesis Publicador: London School of Economics and Political Science Thesis
Tipo: Thesis; NonPeerReviewed Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em //2006 EN
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The history of dissent in economics has thus far been subject to scant interest. The existing scholarship, authored by dissenters probing their own past, has failed to address the crucial questions of how dissent emerged and rooted itself. This study is about two dissenting communities, Radical Political Economics and Post Keynesian Economics. I review the circumstances that led to their emergence in the late 1960s and early 1970s. I draw from the histories of religious and scientific dissent to explore the making of the dissenters' challenge to the economics orthodoxy. Notably, I use the concept of boundary work to analyse the debates between dissenters and mainstream. The history of Radical Political Economics begins with the founding in 1968 of the Union for Radical Political Economics. Onto this Union converged a generation of young radicalised academics that sought to unite their political interests and their scholarly pursuits. After a period devoted to the design of a "paradigm of conflict," radicals turned to outreach work with popular movements. The new commitment brought divisive political identities into their Union that barred any agreement on a programme to transform economics. Post Keynesian Economics emerged in the aftermath of debates on capital theory between Cambridge left Keynesians and neoclassical economists. With the conviction that the debates signalled the emergence of a new theory in economics...