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O regime de metas inflacionárias e sua adequação ao caso brasileiro: os custos de manutenção do regime; Inflation targeting and its adequacy to the brazilian case: the costs of maintenance of the regimen

Biondi, Roberta Loboda
Fonte: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP Publicador: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP
Tipo: Dissertação de Mestrado Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 19/05/2006 PT
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O regime de metas de inflação é uma estratégia de política monetária utilizada por inúmeros países desenvolvidos e em desenvolvimento que tem por objetivo ancorar as expectativas dos agentes econômicos quanto ao comportamento futuro da taxa de inflação. De acordo com a literatura sobre o tema, o regime de metas inflacionárias além de provocar efeitos positivos sobre a taxa de inflação das economias que o adotam, tende também a provocar melhoras sobre o comportamento do produto. O objetivo desta dissertação é analisar empiricamente os impactos da adoção do sistema de metas de inflação para a taxa de inflação e crescimento real do produto dos países, diferenciando os impactos entre os países desenvolvidos e os em desenvolvimento. Utilizando o grupo de países que adotam metas de inflação como o grupo de tratamento e os países que não adotam como grupo de controle, dois procedimentos metodológicos foram realizados: estimação por diferenças em diferenças e análise em painel. Os resultados da estimação por diferenças em diferenças não se mostraram robustos e assim a análise em painel foi realizada. Os resultados demonstram que a adoção do sistema de metas inflacionárias produz impactos significativos para a inflação e crescimento do produto dos países que o adotam. Para o caso dos países desenvolvidos a adoção do sistema de metas tende a elevar a taxa média de inflação assim como o crescimento do produto. Para os países em desenvolvimento...

Ensaios sobre a meta de inflação ótima para o Brasil; Optimal inflation target for the Brazilian economy

Toledo, Marcelo Gaspari Cirne de
Fonte: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP Publicador: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 22/03/2011 PT
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O regime de meta para a inflação foi adotado por um amplo conjunto de países nos últimos anos. Evidentemente, a definição da meta de inflação a ser perseguida é parte essencial do regime. O presente trabalho pretende contribuir para o debate sobre a meta ótima para o Brasil. O trabalho está dividido em três ensaios que, por caminhos diversos, buscam estimar quantitativamente os custos e benefícios de diferentes metas de inflação para a economia brasileira. O foco é sobre os efeitos de longo prazo de diferentes metas, uma vez que esses são mais relevantes do que os possíveis custos de ajustamento para uma eventual nova meta de inflação. O primeiro artigo aborda a questão sobre a meta de inflação ótima para o Brasil por meio da perda de bem estar medida pela demanda de moeda, um canal clássico considerado pela literatura. O segundo avalia a relação entre o nível e a incerteza sobre a inflação futura, utilizando para tanto modelos para a estimação da variância condicional da inflação, as expectativas de inflação relatadas por analistas econômicos e medidas de inflação implícita em preços de ativos. O terceiro artigo apresenta um enfoque mais teórico e estrutural, apresentando um modelo no qual existe um trade-off para a meta de inflação e calibrando esse modelo para obter estimativas da meta ótima para a economia brasileira. O modelo considera...

Essays on inflation and monetary policy

Machado, Vicente da Gama
Fonte: Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul Publicador: Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado Formato: application/pdf
ENG
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36.8%
Esta tese é composta de três artigos relacionados à política monetária e inflação e possuem em comum a ênfase na importância das expectativas tanto para o desenho da política monetária como para a dinâmica inflacionária. No primeiro ensaio, contribuímos para o debate sobre a resposta apropriada de política monetária a flutuações de preços de ativos em um contexto de aprendizagem adaptativa. O modelo conta com dois tipos de regras de juros instrumentais como em Bullard e Mitra (2002), porém com um papel adicional para preços de ativos. Do ponto de vista da E-Estabilidade, conclui-se que uma resposta a preços de ativos não é desejável nem com a regra que utiliza expectativas futuras nem com a regra que responde a valores contemporâneos. Crenças heterogêneas a respeito da dinâmica das flutuações de preços de ativos, inflação e hiato do produto são introduzidas. Também é avaliada uma regra de política monetária ótima que inclui um peso para os preços de ativos. De forma geral, conclui-se que o princípio de Taylor é relevante para todas as regras de juros analisadas e que os bancos centrais devem agir com cautela ao considerar a introdução de preços de ativos na política monetária. No segundo ensaio...

Metas de inflação numa economia pós-keynesiana; Inflation targeting in a post-keynesian economics

André Luís Mota dos Santos
Fonte: Biblioteca Digital da Unicamp Publicador: Biblioteca Digital da Unicamp
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 16/09/2010 PT
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Esta tese examina a compatibilidade do sistema de metas de inflação com uma estrutura econômica que é caracterizada como pós-keynesiana. Essa estrutura é formada por três elementos: uma relação IS; uma relação como a curva de Phillips, mas com teor pós-keynesiano; e um processo adaptativo de formação de expectativas para a taxa de inflação. Políticas monetária e de rendas reagem ao desvio da inflação em relação a uma meta de inflação e/ou ao desvio do produto em relação a uma meta para o produto. Essas funções de reação para as políticas monetária e de rendas fecham o sistema, e diferentes funções de reação conformam diferentes sistemas dinâmicos. Expectativas dependem das taxas de inflação passadas e da taxa meta de inflação: elas são adaptadas em cada período tomando-se a discrepância entre o valor da inflação esperado e a média ponderada entre inflação observada e meta de inflação. A depender de qual desvio ou quais desvios compõem cada função de reação, a combinação de políticas pode ser classificada como pós-keynesiana, ortodoxa ou mesmo como contendo elementos de ambas as orientações. Uma combinação de funções de reação capaz de gerar convergência dos desvios do produto e da inflação em relação às respectivas metas de maneira que cada política seja independente uma da outra tem algum grau de compatibilidade com a estrutura da economia. A capacidade de convergência de cada sistema mede o grau de compatibilidade das políticas com a estrutura da economia. Para alcançar metas para produto e inflação...

Evolução do Grade Inflation entre instituições de ensino secundário público e privado em Portugal; Evolution of grade inflation between public and private secondary schools in Portugal

Melo, Helena Ferreira Barbosa de
Fonte: Universidade do Minho Publicador: Universidade do Minho
Tipo: Dissertação de Mestrado
Publicado em //2014 POR
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Dissertação de mestrado em Economia, Mercados e Políticas Públicas; A literatura indica que existem evidências de grade inflation no ensino, ou seja, de aumentos contínuos das classificações atribuídas aos alunos sem o correspondente aumento no desempenho académico. Esta dissertação estuda o impacto do tipo de instituição de ensino secundário no grade inflation em Portugal. Este fenómeno produz uma redução no bem-estar da sociedade, gera ineficiência económica, contribui para a queda da reputação nas instituições que inflacionam as classificações, gera injustiças e desigualdade sociais entre estudantes e estimula a redução de esforço na obtenção de elevadas classificações. Para a análise empírica utilizamos os resultados dos exames nacionais e restringimos o estudo às disciplinas de Português B e Matemática A, entre os anos 2001 e 2011, divulgamos pelo Júri Nacional de Exames. A metodologia aplicada nesta dissertação utiliza uma regressão linear múltipla pelo método dos mínimos quadrados (OLS). Concluímos que existem diferenças no grade inflation entre o ensino secundário público e privado em Portugal. Para anos mais recentes, com exceção do ano 2011, o desvio no grade inflation é superior no privado para a disciplina de Português B e...

Do inflation-linked bonds contain information about future inflation?

Vicente,José Valentim Machado; Guillen,Osmani Teixeira de Carvalho
Fonte: Fundação Getúlio Vargas Publicador: Fundação Getúlio Vargas
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: text/html
Publicado em 01/06/2013 EN
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There is a widespread belief that inflation-linked bonds are a direct source of information about inflation expectations. In this paper we address this issue by analyzing the relationship between break-even inflation (the difference between nominal and real yields) and future inflation. The dataset is extracted from Brazilian Treasury bonds covering the period from April 2005 to April 2011. We find that break-even inflation is an unbiased forecast only of the 3-month and 6-month ahead inflation. For medium horizons (12 and 18 months), break-even inflation has weak explanatory power of future inflation. Over long horizons (24 and 30 months), we report a significant, but counterintuitive, negative relationship between the break-even and realized inflation rates.

Inflation Dynamics and Food Prices in an Agricultural Economy : The Case of Ethiopia

Loening, Josef L.; Durevall, Dick; Birru, Yohannes A.
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
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Ethiopia has experienced a historically unprecedented increase in inflation, mainly driven by cereal price inflation, which is among the highest in Sub-Saharan Africa. Using monthly data from the past decade, the authors estimate error correction models to identify the relative importance of several factors contributing to overall inflation and its three major components, cereal prices, food prices, and non-food prices. The main finding is that, in a longer perspective, over three to four years, the main factors that determine domestic food and non-food prices are the exchange rate and international food and goods prices. In the short run, agricultural supply shocks and inflation inertia strongly affect domestic inflation, causing large deviations from long-run price trends. Money supply growth does affect food price inflation in the short run, although the money stock itself does not seem to drive inflation. The results suggest the need for a multi-pronged approach to fight inflation. Forecast scenarios suggest monetary and exchange rate policies need to take into account cereal production...

Inflation in Bangladesh : Trends, Sources and Policy Options

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
EN_US
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36.85%
Inflation in Bangladesh has increased from 1.9 percent in FY01 to 7.2 percent in FY06. The biggest increase was in food prices. Food price inflation increased from 1.4 percent in FY01 to 7.8 percent in FY06. By contrast, non-food price inflation only doubled during the same period. Food price inflation has been well above non-food inflation since FY04. The rise in food inflation could have resulted from developments in global commodity markets, particularly since FY05, increases in domestic production costs, and domestic demand. Inflation increased in most major world economies during FY06 following a surge in international commodity, energy and related fuel prices. The relationship between inflation and growth remains controversial both in theory and in empirics. The inflation-growth relationship for Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka none of these countries have had high inflation episodes in recent decades. Their analysis shows that growth rates and inflation rates for all four countries are co integrated...

From Monetary Targeting to Inflation Targeting : Lessons from the Industrialized Countries

Mishkin, Frederic S.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
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The author examines changes in monetary policy in industrial countries by evaluating, and providing case studies of monetary targeting, and inflation targeting. Inflation targeting has successfully controlled inflation, with some qualifications. It weakens the effects of inflationary shocks, as examples from Canada, Sweden, and the United Kingdom show. It can promote growth, and does not lead to increased fluctuations in output. But inflation targets do not necessarily reduce the cost of reducing inflation. The key to success of inflation targeting, is its stress on transparency, and communication with the public. Inflation targeting increases accountability, which helps ameliorate the time-inconsistency trap (in which the central bank tries to expand output, and employment in the short run, by pursuing overly expansionary monetary policy). Time-inconsistency is more likely to come from political pressures on the central bank, to engage in overly expansionary monetary policy. A key advantage of inflation targeting...

Inflation and the Poor

Easterly, William; Fischer, Stanley
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.9%
Using polling data for 31,869 households in 38 countries, and allowing for country effects, the authors show that the poor are more likely than the rich to mention inflation as a top national concern. This result survives several robustness checks. Also, direct measures of improvements in well-being for the poor - the change in their share of national income, the percentage decline in poverty, and the percentage change in the real minimum wage - are negatively correlated with inflation in pooled cross-country samples. High inflation tends to lower the share of the bottom quintile and the real minimum wage - and tends to increase poverty.

South Asia Economic Focus, June 2011 : Food Inflation

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: General Economy, Macroeconomics and Growth Study; Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH; EN_US
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36.81%
This report focuses on the impact of policies and exogenous shocks on food inflation. It deals with four elements: 1) the pass-through of global food (and other commodity) prices, 2) macroeconomic policies, 3) market regulation and short-term supply shocks, and 4) long-term structural shifts and the terms of trade between agriculture and other sectors of the economy. This report examines food and overall inflation trends in South Asia, which is experiencing relatively high inflation, and is home to a large number of poor. There are many more poor people who are net buyers of food than there are those who benefit from higher prices of agricultural products even in the predominantly rural countries of South Asia. The report examines both short-term and longer-term drivers of rising food prices in the region, including developments in international commodity prices, domestic supply shocks, accommodative demand side policies, structural changes in demand patterns, and long-term agricultural productivity trends. The impact on poverty is examined...

Are International Food Price Spikes the Source of Egypt's High Inflation?

Al-Shawarby, Sherine; Selim, Hoda
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
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This paper examines whether domestic inflation spikes in Egypt during 2001-2011 were primarily the result of external food price shocks. To estimate the pass-through of international food price inflation to domestic price inflation, two different methodologies are used: a two-step regression model estimates the pass-through in the long run, and a vector autoregression model provides the short-run estimates. The empirical evidence confirms that pass-through is high in the short term, but not in the long run. More precisely, the results show that (i) long-run pass-through to domestic food inflation is relatively low, lying between 13 and 16 percent, while the long-term spill-over from domestic food inflation to core inflation is moderate, lying around 60 percent; (ii) in the short term, pass-through is relatively high, estimated around 29 percent after 6 months and around two-thirds after a year, but the spill-over effect to core inflation is limited; (iii) international food price shocks explain only a small portion of domestic inflation shocks in both the short and long terms; and (iv) international price inflation has asymmetric effects on domestic prices.

Does Inflation Targeting Matter for Output Growth? Evidence from Industrial and Emerging Economies

Mollick, André Varella; Torres, René Cabral; Carneiro, Francisco G.
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
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This paper examines the effects of inflation targeting on industrial and emerging economies' output growth over the "globalization years" of 1986-2004. Controlling for trade openness and two indicators of financial globalization, the authors find systematic positive and significant effects of inflation targeting on real output growth. In dynamic models, the findings show strong output persistence in industrial economies, in which partial and full inflation targeting regimes have a positive long-run impact on growth. In emerging markets, only full inflation targeting policies have any output effect in the long-run. The results suggest that strict inflation targeting is needed to make the discipline effect of the disinflation process outweigh the output costs of promoting high interest rates to attract capital flows in a global world. These findings are robust to the treatment of endogenous globalization measures.

Monetary Policy under Flexible Exchange Rates : An Introduction to Inflation Targeting

Agenor, Pierre-Richard
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
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In the past few years, a number of central banks have adopted inflation targeting for monetary policy. The author provides an introduction to inflation targeting, with an emphasis on analytical issues, and the recent experience of middle- and high-income developing countries (which have relatively low inflation to begin with, and reasonably well-functioning financial markets). After presenting a formal analytical framework, the author discusses the basic requirements for inflation targeting, and how such a regime differs from money, and exchange rate targeting regimes. After discussing the operational framework for inflation targeting (including the price index to monitor the time horizon, the forecasting procedures, and the role of asset prices), he examines recent experiences with inflation targets, providing new evidence on the convexity of the Phillips curve for six developing countries. His conclusions: Inflation targeting is a flexible policy framework that allows a country's central bank to exercise some degree of discretion, without putting in jeopardy its main objective of maintaining stable prices. In middle- and high-income developing economies that can refrain from implicit exchange rate targeting, it can improve the design...

Measuring Forecasters' Perceptions of Inflation Persistence

Jain, MONICA
Fonte: Quens University Publicador: Quens University
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado
EN; EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
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This dissertation presents a new measure of U.S. inflation persistence from the point of view of a professional forecaster. In chapter 2 I explore two different measures that give insight into the views of professional forecasters and link their views with U.S. inflation data. One of these measures, given by the persistence implied by forecast revisions, appears to have similarities with actual inflation persistence over the 1981–2008 sample period. Chapter 3 explores forecast revisions in a more general setting allowing forecasters to have their own views on inflation persistence as well as a unique information set. This chapter builds a measure of perceived inflation persistence via the implied autocorrelation function that follows from the estimates obtained using a forecaster-specific state-space model. When compared to the autocorrelation function for actual inflation, forecasters tend to react less to shocks that hit inflation than the actual inflation data would suggest. This could be due to increased credibility of the Federal Reserve, but it could also be a result of a bias in the underlying inflation forecasts. Chapter 4 focuses on this issue and finds that the reluctance of forecasters to make revisions to their previously announced forecasts causes their estimates of perceived inflation persistence to be understated as their announced inflation forecasts differ from their true inflation expectations. This chapter also presents a method to undo this bias by retrieving their true inflation expectations series.; Thesis (Ph.D...

Essays on Inflation and Output: A Search-Theoretic Approach

Liu, Qian
Fonte: Quens University Publicador: Quens University
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado
EN; EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
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This dissertation examines the welfare effects of inflation on employment and output in three different market settings. The theoretical frameworks build on recent studies in the monetary search literature that explicitly models the microfoundations of money and study how monetary policy interacts with real variables. The first essay studies the relationship between inflation and unemployment in a general equilibrium framework where inflation has differential effects on employed and unemployed workers. The model finds that inflation can either increase or decrease employment and output, depending on goods and labor market institutions. Sales taxes, the degree of competitiveness in the goods market and imperfect indexation of unemployment insurance benefits are the major factors determining the direction of this relationship. Through a comparison of these parameters, the model predicts an inflation-unemployment relation that is qualitatively consistent with the empirical evidences. The second essay, co-authored with Liang Wang and Randall Wright, investigates the effect of inflation on people's trading behavior in the goods market. By focusing on buyers' search intensity on the extensive margin, the model unambiguously predicts a rise in inflation leads to an increase in the speed with which agents spend their money and velocity. This is consistent with the phenomenon described by the conventional "hot potato" effect of inflation. We also discuss the welfare implications of different monetary policy. In some circumstances inflating above the Friedman rule may be optimal...

Inflation and Asset Prices

Pflueger, Carolin
Fonte: Harvard University Publicador: Harvard University
Tipo: Thesis or Dissertation
EN_US
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Do corporate bond spreads reflect fear of debt deflation? Most corporate bonds have fixed nominal face values, so unexpectedly low inflation raises firms' real debt burdens and increases default risk. The first chapter develops a real business cycle model with time-varying inflation risk and optimal, but infrequent, capital structure choice. In this model, more volatile or more procyclical inflation lead to quantitatively important credit spread increases. This is true even with inflation volatility as moderate as that in developed economies since 1970. Intuitively, this result obtains because inflation persistence generates large uncertainty about the price level at long maturities and because firms cannot adjust their capital structure immediately. We find strong empirical support for our model predictions in a panel of six developed economies. Both inflation volatility and the inflation-stock return correlation have varied substantially over time and across countries. They jointly explain as much variation in credit spreads as do equity volatility and the dividend-price ratio. Credit spreads rise by 15 basis points if either inflation volatility or the inflation-stock return correlation increases by one standard deviation. Firms counteract higher debt financing costs by adjusting their capital structure in times of higher inflation uncertainty. The second chapter empirically decomposes excess return predictability in inflation-indexed and nominal government bonds into liquidity...

A comparison of inflation expectations and inflation credibility in South Africa: results from survey data

Rossouw,Jannie; Padayachee,Vishnu; Bosch,Adel
Fonte: South African Journal of Economic and Management Sciences Publicador: South African Journal of Economic and Management Sciences
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: text/html
Publicado em 01/01/2011 EN
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This paper reports a comparison of South African household inflation expectations and inflation credibility surveys undertaken in 2006 and 2008. It tests for possible feed-through between inflation credibility and inflation expectations. It supplements earlier research that focused only on the 2006 survey results. The comparison shows that inflation expectations differed between different income groups in both 2006 and 2008. Inflation credibility differed between male and female respondents, but this difference did not feed through to inflation expectations. More periodic survey data will be required for developing final conclusions on the possibility of feedthrough effects. To this end the structure of credibility surveys should be reconsidered, as a large percentage of respondents indicated that they 'don't know' whether the historic rate of inflation is an accurate indication of price increases.

An international comparison of inflation credibility surveys

Rossouw,Jannie; Joubert,Fanie; Padayachee,Vishnu
Fonte: South African Journal of Economic and Management Sciences Publicador: South African Journal of Economic and Management Sciences
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: text/html
Publicado em 01/01/2013 EN
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This paper analyses the methodology used in assessing inflation credibility (i.e. perceptions of the accuracy of historical inflation rates) in countries targeting inflation, and compares the approaches used in New Zealand, South Africa and Sweden. The results indicate an implied inverse (or negative) relationship in all but one instance, between the direction of actual inflation and the perception of inflation among the respondents. The analysis also shows a lack of knowledge about inflation and price increases among South African respondents, which is absent from similar surveys in New Zealand and Sweden. Important research questions identified include possible links between inflation credibility and the adoption date of inflation targeting, as well as the type and range of targets used.

Links or disconnect: A first consideration of inflation expectations and inflation credibility, with specific reference to South Africa

Rossouw,Jannie; Padayachee,Vishnu; Bosch,Adél
Fonte: South African Journal of Economic and Management Sciences Publicador: South African Journal of Economic and Management Sciences
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: text/html
Publicado em 01/12/2009 EN
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This paper compares international and domestic inflation expectations and inflation credibility, and hypothesises about a possible link or disconnect between inflation expectations and inflation credibility among South Africans. No similar tests have previously been performed using South African data, and there is also a general lack of domestic and international literature on any such possible link or disconnect. While research shows that inflation expectations are taken into account by all countries targeting inflation, inflation credibility is very seldom considered. Although the hypothesis is confirmed in certain instances, it is refuted by a disconnect between the inflation expectations and inflation credibility of male and female respondents in South Africa, which cannot be explained by available data.