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O FMI, a política interna dos EUA e a crise da divida dos anos 80; The IMF, the American domestic politics and the 1980's debt crisis

Cordeiro, Fábio Cereda
Fonte: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP Publicador: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 24/09/2010 PT
Relevância na Pesquisa
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Esta pesquisa investiga os fatores de política doméstica que motivam os Estados a delegar determinados temas a organizações internacionais. Com base na abordagem de principal-agente aplicada à delegação internacional, o estudo de caso sustenta que a dinâmica da política doméstica norte-americana foi um determinante importante da delegação da crise da dívida dos anos 80 para o Fundo Monetário Internacional. A hipótese se baseia no argumento teórico segundo o qual a delegação de um tema para uma organização internacional oferece ao ator que delega (em geral o Poder Executivo) uma oportunidade de aumentar sua influência sobre aquele tema em detrimento dos outros atores políticos domésticos. Nesta visão, a delegação pode aumentar a influência do Poder Executivo ao deslocar o poder de agenda sobre o tema para a organização internacional, reduzir o número de pontos de decisão doméstica, criar assimetrias de informação e prover fontes adicionais de legitimidade para as posições do Executivo. Quanto mais agudo for o conflito doméstico sobre um tema, maior será o incentivo para o Poder Executivo delegá-lo a uma organização internacional. Este estudo sustenta que a crise da dívida dos anos 80 foi essencialmente uma crise bancária...

A posição do Brasil na governança econômica global: um estudo da conformidade entre o posicionamento do governo brasileiro e o consenso expresso nos comunicados oficiais do G20 e do FMI (2006-2012); The position of Brazil in global economic governance: a study on the conformity between the position of the brazilian government and the consensus expressed in official communiqués of the G20 and the IMF (2006-2012)

Lima, Marcelo Waldvogel Oliveira
Fonte: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP Publicador: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP
Tipo: Dissertação de Mestrado Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 18/03/2013 PT
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No presente contexto de redistribuição de poder e da consequente reorganização da ordem mundial, as economias emergentes têm gradualmente alcançado maior espaço nas deliberações multilaterais a respeito da governança econômica global. Esta ascensão tem ocorrido em níveis e ritmos distintos em diferentes instâncias da governança econômica global, como, por exemplo, no âmbito do FMI e do G20. Estas instituições internacionais, ainda que diferentes em sua composição, formalização, estrutura e governança, possuem aspectos importantes de sua missão que se sobrepõem, como o diálogo multilateral a respeito de políticas macroeconômicas e a promoção da estabilidade econômica e financeira mundial. Considerando que as economias emergentes têm investido na consolidação de seu recém-adquirido status no sistema internacional, este estudo pretende avançar na compreensão da sua atuação nestas instituições internacionais por meio de uma análise comparativa da configuração institucional do FMI e do G20. Na segunda parte deste estudo, partindo do fato de que as economias emergentes têm empreendido esforços para que as instituições internacionais aprimorem seu modelo de representatividade, no sentido de refletir em suas decisões as posições específicas destes países...

Formação de coalizões dentro das instituições financeiras internacionais: o caso do Brasil no FMI e Banco Mundial; The coalition formation in international financial institutions: the Brazilian case in the IMF and World Bank

Apolinário Júnior, Laerte
Fonte: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP Publicador: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP
Tipo: Dissertação de Mestrado Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 07/11/2014 PT
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Esta pesquisa tem por objetivo analisar o processo de formação de coalizões dentro do Fundo Monetário Internacional e do Banco Mundial, evidenciando os motivos que levam os países a formarem blocos dentro dessas instituições. Como no FMI e no Banco Mundial as principais decisões são tomadas no âmbito do Diretório Executivo, este estudo se centrará na análise dos processos que levam à formação de alianças para a escolha de representantes nessa instância decisória. Por razões substantivas e metodológicas, este trabalho terá como escopo o caso brasileiro, buscando assim identificar os motivos que levariam os países a somarem seus votos na escolha de um brasileiro para representar seus interesses nessas instituições. Partindo da literatura que analisa como os países utilizam ajuda externa para perseguir seus objetivos, essa pesquisa analisará quantitativamente se os países mais pobres trocariam apoio político nas instituições financeiras internacionais por benefícios econômicos. Para tanto, será testada a hipótese de que os países que compõem a coalizão brasileira dentro dos Diretórios Executivos do FMI e Banco Mundial possuem mais chances de receber ajuda externa do Brasil do que os países que não apoiam o Brasil nessas instituições. Os resultados encontrados confirmam a hipótese.; This research analyzes the coalition formation processes within the International Monetary Fund and World Bank. More specifically...

Fiscal adjustment, conditionality and politics in IMF programs

Ladeira, Carlos Eduardo de Almeida
Fonte: Fundação Getúlio Vargas Publicador: Fundação Getúlio Vargas
Tipo: Dissertação
EN_US
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A common feature in programs of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is the use of conditionalities, macroeconomic and structural measures that a requesting country should adopt to obtain an assistance package. The objective of this work is to conduct an empirical analysis of the economic and political determinants of such conditionalities. In particular, our main contribution consists in the development of a new measure of conditionality, fiscal adjustment, and its comparison with the most used in the literature, the number of conditions. We choose fiscal adjustment because it is an adequate proxy for program austerity, since its implementation carries economic and political costs. In the empirical exercise, we use data from 184 programs in the period of 1999 and 2012, and estimate how our two measures of conditionalities respond to the economic and political factors. Our results suggest that they are quite different. The main determinant of the number of conditions is the political proximity of the borrowing country to the Fund’s major shareholders, the members of G5. On the other hand, the main determinant of fiscal adjustment is the size of the government fiscal deficit. Finally, we did not find correlation between the size of fiscal adjustment and the number of conditions. These results suggest that the analysis of the content of IMF programs should take into account the different measures of agreed conditionality.

The determinants of IMF fiscal conditionalities: economics or politics?

GUIMARAES, Bernardo; LADEIRA, Carlos Eduardo
Fonte: Fundação Getúlio Vargas Publicador: Fundação Getúlio Vargas
Tipo: Relatório
EN_US
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Conditionalites, measures that a borrowing country should adopt to obtain loans from the IMF, are pervasive in IMF programs. This paper estimates the effects of political and economic factors on the number of conditionalities and on the fiscal adjustment requested by the IMF. As found in the literature, political proximity of the borrowing country to the Fund’s major shareholders has an important effect on the number of conditions in an agreement. However, the fiscal adjusment requested by the IMF is strongly affected by the size of a country’s fiscal deficit but not by political proximity. We also find a very small correlation between the number of conditions and the fiscal adjustment requested by the IMF

IMF arrangements, politics and the timing of stabilizations

Veiga, Francisco José
Fonte: Universidade do Minho. Núcleo de Investigação em Políticas Económicas Publicador: Universidade do Minho. Núcleo de Investigação em Políticas Económicas
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento
Publicado em //2002 ENG
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This paper analyses the effects of International Monetary Fund (IMF) arrangements on the timing of inflation stabilization programs. Essentially, we test the hypothesis that IMF aid accelerates stabilization using probit and proportional hazards models. As in theoretical models, results are mixed: larger withdrawals of the amounts agreed to seem to hasten stabilization, but there is weak evidence that IMF arrangements lead to greater delays. Concerning other effects, greater fragmentation of the political system delays stabilization while higher inflation tends to hasten it. Other political and economic variables do not seem to have significant effects on the timing of stabilizations.; Fundação para a Ciêencia e Tecnologia (FCT) - Programa Operacional Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovação (POCTI).

IMF arrangements, politics and the timing of stabilizations

Veiga, Francisco José
Fonte: Universidade do Minho Publicador: Universidade do Minho
Tipo: Conferência ou Objeto de Conferência
Publicado em /08/1999 ENG
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This paper analyses the effects of International Monetary Fund (IMF) arrangements on the timing of inflation stabilization programs. Essentially, we test the hypothesis that IMF aid accelerates stabilization using probit and proportional hazards models. As in theoretical models, results are mixed: larger withdrawals of the amounts agreed to seem to hasten stabilization, but there is weak evidence that IMF arrangements lead to greater delays. Concerning other effects, greater fragmentation of the political system delays stabilization while higher inflation tends to hasten it. Other political and economic variables do not seem to have significant effects on the timing of stabilizations.

Does IMF support accelerate inflation stabilization?

Veiga, Francisco José
Fonte: Springer Publicador: Springer
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em //2005 ENG
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This paper analyzes the effects of International Monetary Fund (IMF) arrangements on the timing of inflation stabilization programs. By providing financial support that may allow the reduction of inflation without incurring politically unacceptable economic costs, the IMF can hasten stabilization. But, since support can also reduce the costs of inflation, it may instead delay it. Empirical results obtained for 10 countries that suffered from chronic inflation fail to support the hypothesis that IMF financial assistance accelerates stabilization. Rather, they indicate that other factors have a greater impact on the timing of stabilizations: greater fragmentation of the political system delays stabilization, while a higher level of inflation hastens it.; Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT)

Adverse selection and growth under IMF programs

Bas, Muhammet Ali; Stone, Randall W.
Fonte: Springer Science + Business Media Publicador: Springer Science + Business Media
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
EN_US
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The dominant approach to studying the effects of IMF programs has emphasized moral hazard, but we find that adverse selection has more impressive effects. We propose a novel strategic selection model to study the growth effects of IMF programs, which allows for the possibility of adverse selection. We find that adverse selection occurs: the countries that are most interested in participating in IMF programs are the least likely to have favorable growth outcomes. Controlling for this selection effect, we find that countries benefit from IMF programs on average in terms of higher growth rates, but that some countries benefit from participation, while others are harmed. Moral hazard predicts that long-term users of Fund resources benefit least from participating in programs, while adverse selection predicts the opposite. Contrary to previous findings, we find that IMF programs have more successful growth performance among long-term users than among short-term users.; Government

Questions Concerning Argentina, Brazil and the IMF

Schwartz, Anna J.
Fonte: William E. Simon Graduate School of Business Administration, University of Rochester Publicador: William E. Simon Graduate School of Business Administration, University of Rochester
ENG
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Political uncertainty clouds the economic future of both Argentina and Brazil. Moreover, that uncertainty is compounded by the ties of each country to the IMF, since they do not know in advance how it will react once their political situation is better defined than it is at present I begin by discussing the political quagmire and then the economic troubles respectively in Argentina and Brazil. I also comment on the IMF’s demands for reform in each country. I end by noting the irrelevance of the IMF initiative to establish a Sovereign Debt Restructuring Mechanism (SDRM) to the problems of these two countries.

Structural adjustment programs : the roles of the IMF and the World Bank

Duncan, Ron
Fonte: Universidade Nacional da Austrália Publicador: Universidade Nacional da Austrália
Tipo: Conference paper Formato: 44361 bytes; 352 bytes; application/pdf; application/octet-stream
EN_AU
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[Introduction]: This paper examines the causes of financial crises, the function and design of SAPs, the forms of assistance provided by the IMF and the World Bank, and the experience with SAPs in Papua New Guinea and elsewhere.; Kumul Scholars International papers from the Conference in Canberra, Australia in July 2002; no

The IMF and East Asia: a changing regional financial architecture

de Brouwer, Gordon
Fonte: Universidade Nacional da Austrália Publicador: Universidade Nacional da Austrália
Tipo: Working/Technical Paper Formato: 160641 bytes; 352 bytes; application/pdf; application/octet-stream
EN_AU
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The financial crises of 1997 and 1998 have had a profound effect on how East Asia sees the role of the IMF and its strategic interests relative to those of the United States in international finance. The crises have spurred demand for a regional financial architecture in East Asia – ranging from deeper policy dialogue and surveillance, a system of financial cooperation, and even talk of common exchange rate arrangements. This paper analyses the economic, strategic and chauvinistic motivations behind this, and evaluates the merit of some of these proposals. Regional policy dialogue and surveillance in East Asia are weak, and the strengthening that is occurring through the ASEAN+3 grouping is welcome and important. There is also a strong case to be made for regional financial cooperation to complement global arrangements. A regional arrangement can secure liquidity and financing support to respond to small or localised crises, and may be a more effective preventive measure than the IMF’s Contingent Credit Line facility. A regional arrangement would also boost policy dialogue and surveillance. But progress to date has been slow.; no

IMF Programs: who is chosen and what are the effects?

Barro, Robert J; Lee, Jong-Wha
Fonte: Universidade Nacional da Austrália Publicador: Universidade Nacional da Austrália
Tipo: Working/Technical Paper Formato: 406106 bytes; 360 bytes; application/pdf; application/octet-stream
EN_AU
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MF loans react to economic conditions but are also sensitive to political-economy variables. Loans tend to be larger and more frequent when a country has a bigger quota and more professional staff at the IMF and when a country is more connected politically and economically to the United States and other major shareholding countries of the IMF. These results are of considerable interest for their own sake. More importantly for present purposes, the results provide instrumental variables for estimating the effects of IMF loan programs on economic growth and other variables. This instrumental estimation allows us to sort out the economic effects of the loan programs from the responses of IMF lending to economic conditions. The estimates show that a higher IMF loan participation rate reduces economic growth. IMF lending also lowers investment but raises international openness. In addition, greater involvement in IMF programs tends to lower the rule of law and democracy. We conclude that the typical country would be better off economically if it committed itself not to be involved with IMF loan programs.; no

IMF and ADB perspectives on regional surveillance in East Asia; 3

de Brouwer, Gordon
Fonte: Routledge Publicador: Routledge
Tipo: Parte de Livro Formato: 58171 bytes; 353 bytes; application/pdf; application/octet-stream
EN_AU
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East Asian policy dialogue on economic and financial developments within the region and beyond it occurs in a range of forums. These include the APEC Finance Ministers’ Meeting, the ASEAN+3 Finance Ministers’ Meeting, the ASEAN Finance Ministers’ and Governors’ Meetings, the Manila Framework Group (MFG), the Executives Meeting of the East Asian and Pacific Central Banks (EMEAP), the China-Japan-Korea Finance Ministers’ Meeting, and the Four Markets Group. There is consensus in the region that there are now enough forums for policy dialogue. But there is also general agreement that many of them do not fulfil their potential as forums for substantive and effective economic monitoring and surveillance. In this context, there is an appetite to reform and strengthen some of these forums, especially the ASEAN+3, ASEAN and MFG meetings. This chapter looks at ways to strengthen monitoring and surveillance in regional policy dialogue from the perspective of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Asian Development Bank (ADB). These institutions are the core providers of much of the intellectual and logistic support for many of the meetings. They are involved in many meetings, either as presenters on recent developments or as observers. They also have their own views on...

Kazakstan 1993–2000: Independent Advisers and the IMF

Pomfret, R.
Fonte: Elsevier BV, North Holland Publicador: Elsevier BV, North Holland
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em //2001 EN
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Book review Kazakstan 1993–2000: Independent Advisers and the IMF; Hoffmann, L., Bofinger, P., Flassbeck, H., Steinherr, A.; Heidelberg/New York: Physica, 2001, 290 pages

Os programas de ajuste do FMI: condicionalidade, compliance e efeitos: uma análise dos programas aplicados à Indonésia, Coreia e Tailândia no contexto da crise financeira asiática; IMF programs: conditionality, compliance and effects: an analysis of the programs imposed to Indonesia, Korea and Thailand during the Asian financial crisis

Pelisson, Debora Ramires
Fonte: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP Publicador: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP
Tipo: Dissertação de Mestrado Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 06/11/2015 PT
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Durante a crise asiática, ocorrida em 1997, Indonésia, Coreia e Tailândia enfrentaram uma intensa fuga de capitais que ocasionou sérios desequilíbrios em seus balanços de pagamentos. Diante das dificuldades, os países pediram socorro ao FMI e, em contrapartida aos empréstimos recebidos, se submeteram aos programas de ajuste da organização. O trabalho analisa os programas sob dois aspectos: o compliance das condicionalidades e o efeito sobre o desempenho econômico. O compliance é medido, por meio de um índice global, posteriormente separado em duas categorias: uma associada ao cumprimento de medidas macroeconômicas e outra vinculada às reformas estruturais. Os índices indicam o número de condições que foram cumpridas em relação ao número total de condições prescritas. Para os três países, os graus de compliance são altos. A partir dos resultados, é feita a verificação do efeito dos programas sobre as economias, mediante a análise da evolução de indicadores macroeconômicos selecionados. Conclui-se que o nível de compliance dos países está associado positivamente à recuperação da crise e à estabilidade econômica no longo-prazo, sendo mais forte a primeira relação.; During the Asian crisis, occurred in 1997...

The IMF of simple and composite populations

Kroupa, Pavel
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em 08/08/2007
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The combination of a finite time-scale for star formation, rapid early stellar evolution and rapid stellar-dynamical processes imply that the stellar IMF cannot be inferred for any star cluster independently of its age (the Cluster IMF Theorem). The IMF can nevertheless be constrained statistically by evolving many theoretical populations drawn from one parent distribution and testing these against observed populations. It follows that all known well-resolved stellar populations are consistent with having been drawn from the same parent mass distribution. The IMF Universality Hypothesis therefore cannot be discarded despite the existence of the Cluster IMF Theorem. This means that the currently existing star-formation theory fails to describe the stellar outcome, because it predicts a dependency of the IMF on the physical boundary conditions not observed. The IGIMF Theorem, however, predicts a variation of galaxy-wide IMFs in dependence of the galaxy's star-formation rate even if the IMF Universality Hypothesis is valid. This variation has now been observed in SDSS galaxy data. Detailed analysis of the binary properties in the very-low-mass star and brown dwarf (BD) mass regime on the one hand, and in the stellar regime on the other...

Dark Matter and IMF normalization in Virgo dwarf early-type galaxies

Tortora, C.; La Barbera, F.; Napolitano, N. R.
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Relevância na Pesquisa
27.33%
In this work we analyze the dark matter (DM) fraction, $f_{DM}$, and mass-to-light ratio mismatch parameter, $\delta_{IMF}$ (computed with respect to a Milky-Way-like IMF), for a sample of 39 dwarf early-type galaxies (dEs) in the Virgo cluster. Both $f_{DM}$ and $\delta_{IMF}$ are estimated within the central (one effective radius) galaxy regions, with a Jeans dynamical analysis that relies on galaxy velocity dispersions, structural parameters, and stellar M/L ratios from the SMAKCED survey. In this first attempt to constrain, simultaneously, the IMF normalization and the DM content, we explore the impact of different assumptions on the DM model profile. On average, for a NFW profile, the $\delta_{IMF}$ is consistent with a Chabrier-like normalization ($\delta_{IMF} \sim 1$), with $f_{DM} \sim 0.35$. One of the main results of the present work is that for at least a few systems the $\delta_{IMF}$ is heavier than the MW-like value (i.e. either top- or bottom-heavy). When introducing tangential anisotropy, larger $\delta_{IMF}$ and smaller $f_{DM}$ are derived. Adopting a steeper concentration-mass relation than that from simulations, we find lower $\delta_{IMF}$ ($< 1$) and larger $f_{DM}$. A constant M/L profile with null $f_{DM}$ gives the heaviest $\delta_{IMF}$ ($\sim 2$). In the MONDian framework...

Strong Gravitational Lensing and the Stellar IMF of Early-type Galaxies

Leier, Dominik; Ferreras, Ignacio; Saha, Prasenjit; Charlot, Stéphane; Bruzual, Gustavo; La Barbera, Francesco
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em 01/12/2015
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27.29%
The stellar initial mass function is an important ingredient in galaxy formation, mainly linking the luminosity of a galaxy to its stellar mass, and driving chemical enrichment. In recent years there has been an ongoing discussion about systematic variations of the IMF in early-type galaxies and its connection with possible drivers such as velocity dispersion or metallicity. Strong gravitational lensing over galaxy scales in combination with photometric and spectroscopic data provides a powerful method to constrain the stellar mass-to-light ratio and hence the functional form of the IMF. We combine photometric and spectroscopic constraints from the latest set of population synthesis models of Charlot & Bruzual, including a varying IMF, with a non-parametric analysis of the lensing mass in a sample of 18 early-type lens galaxies from the SLACS survey, with velocity dispersions in the range 200-300 km/s. We find that very bottom-heavy IMFs are excluded. However, the upper limit to the IMF slope ($\mu \lesssim 2.2$ for a bimodal IMF, taking into account a 20-30% contribution to the lensing mass from dark matter, where $\mu=1.3$ corresponds to a Kroupa-like IMF) is compatible at the $1\sigma$ level with the constraints imposed by gravity-sensitive line strengths. A two-segment power law parameterisation of the IMF (keeping its index at the high mass end fixed at the Salpeter value) is more constrained ($\Gamma\lesssim1.5$...

IMF concern for reputation and conditional lending failure: theory and empirics

Marchesi, Silvia; Sabani, Laura
Fonte: Financial Markets Group, London School of Economics and Political Science Publicador: Financial Markets Group, London School of Economics and Political Science
Tipo: Monograph; NonPeerReviewed Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em /04/2005 EN; EN
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One possible explanation for the unsatisfactory implementation of IMF conditionality has been attributed to the lack of credibility of the IMF threat of interrupting financial assistance in case of non compliance with the negotiated conditions. In this paper we suggest that such lack of credibility might be due to the dual role played by the IMF which acts at the same time as a creditor and a monitor of economic reforms. We show that the IMF incentive to hide its surveillance failures, in order to preserve its reputation of being a good monitor, may actually distort its lending decisions towards greater laxity (relative to social optimum) in punishing non-compliance with economic reforms. We have empirically tested such theoretical result by supposing that larger departures from efficiency of the IMF lending rule are associated with a longer relationship between a country and the IMF. The longer this relationship, the stronger the IMF reputation will be affected in case it ultimately decides to stop lending. Specifically, we have empirically investigated whether IMF disbursements are affected by the IMF own share of debt, which is taken as a proxy for the duration of the relationship between the Fund and a country. Our empirical results show that a higher IMF debt share does increase IMF disbursements.