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Trends in aortic aneurysm- and dissection-related mortality in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil, 1985-2009: multiple-cause-of-death analysis

Santo, Augusto Hasiak; Puech-Leao, Pedro; Krutman, Mariana
Fonte: BIOMED CENTRAL LTD; LONDON Publicador: BIOMED CENTRAL LTD; LONDON
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.22%
Background: Aortic aneurysm and dissection are important causes of death in older people. Ruptured aneurysms show catastrophic fatality rates reaching near 80%. Few population-based mortality studies have been published in the world and none in Brazil. The objective of the present study was to use multiple-cause-of-death methodology in the analysis of mortality trends related to aortic aneurysm and dissection in the state of Sao Paulo, between 1985 and 2009. Methods: We analyzed mortality data from the Sao Paulo State Data Analysis System, selecting all death certificates on which aortic aneurysm and dissection were listed as a cause-of-death. The variables sex, age, season of the year, and underlying, associated or total mentions of causes of death were studied using standardized mortality rates, proportions and historical trends. Statistical analyses were performed by chi-square goodness-of-fit and H Kruskal-Wallis tests, and variance analysis. The joinpoint regression model was used to evaluate changes in age-standardized rates trends. A p value less than 0.05 was regarded as significant. Results: Over a 25-year period, there were 42,615 deaths related to aortic aneurysm and dissection, of which 36,088 (84.7%) were identified as underlying cause and 6...

Trends in aortic aneurysm- and dissection-related mortality in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, 1985–2009: multiple-cause-of-death analysis

Santo, Augusto Hasiak; Leao, Pedro Puech; Krutman, Mariana 
Fonte: London Publicador: London
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.22%
Background: Aortic aneurysm and dissection are important causes of death in older people. Ruptured aneurysms show catastrophic fatality rates reaching near 80%. Few population-based mortality studies have been published in the world and none in Brazil. The objective of the present study was to use multiple-cause-of-death methodology in the analysis of mortality trends related to aortic aneurysm and dissection in the state of Sao Paulo, between 1985 and 2009. Methods: We analyzed mortality data from the Sao Paulo State Data Analysis System, selecting all death certificates on which aortic aneurysm and dissection were listed as a cause-of-death. The variables sex, age, season of the year, and underlying, associated or total mentions of causes of death were studied using standardized mortality rates, proportions and historical trends. Statistical analyses were performed by chi-square goodness-of-fit and H Kruskal-Wallis tests, and variance analysis. The joinpoint regression model was used to evaluate changes in age-standardized rates trends. A p value less than 0.05 was regarded as significant. Results: Over a 25-year period, there were 42,615 deaths related to aortic aneurysm and dissection, of which 36,088 (84.7%) were identified as underlying cause and 6...

Climate Change and "historical responsibilities"

Goldemberg, Jose; Guardabassi, Patricia Maria
Fonte: ANPPAS - Revista Ambiente e Sociedade Publicador: ANPPAS - Revista Ambiente e Sociedade
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.06%
The historical responsibility of countries listed in the Annex I of the Convention on Climate Change has been used extensively as a justification for the lack of action of countries not included in Annex I to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. We analyzed the contribution of non-Annex I countries to the CO2 emissions in the period 1850 - 2006 to assess their relative contribution to total CO2 emissions. In the period 1980 - 2006 non-Annex I countries represented 44% of the total but this contribution increased in the period 1990 - 2006 to 48%. If we extrapolate present trends to 2020 they will represent 56% in the period 1990 - 2020. The "historical responsibility" of Annex I countries is therefore decreasing. If we take 1990 as the starting year in which the Climate Convention recognized clearly that greenhouse gases are interfering dangerously with the climate system, it becomes very difficult to attribute "blame" and "guilt" to Annex I for their historical contributions. It becomes also quite clear the need of non-Annex I countries to engage with Annex I countries in the effort to reduce emissions. The Copenhagen Accord has no mention of "historical responsibilities".

Trends in aortic aneurysm- and dissection-related mortality in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, 1985–2009: multiple-cause-of-death analysis

Santo, Augusto H; Puech-Leão, Pedro; Krutman, Mariana
Fonte: Biblioteca Digital da Produção Intelectual da USP Publicador: Biblioteca Digital da Produção Intelectual da USP
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.05%
Abstract Background Aortic aneurysm and dissection are important causes of death in older people. Ruptured aneurysms show catastrophic fatality rates reaching near 80%. Few population-based mortality studies have been published in the world and none in Brazil. The objective of the present study was to use multiple-cause-of-death methodology in the analysis of mortality trends related to aortic aneurysm and dissection in the state of Sao Paulo, between 1985 and 2009. Methods We analyzed mortality data from the Sao Paulo State Data Analysis System, selecting all death certificates on which aortic aneurysm and dissection were listed as a cause-of-death. The variables sex, age, season of the year, and underlying, associated or total mentions of causes of death were studied using standardized mortality rates, proportions and historical trends. Statistical analyses were performed by chi-square goodness-of-fit and H Kruskal-Wallis tests, and variance analysis. The joinpoint regression model was used to evaluate changes in age-standardized rates trends. A p value less than 0.05 was regarded as significant. Results Over a 25-year period...

Trends in aortic aneurysm- and dissection-related mortality in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, 1985–2009: multiple-cause-of-death analysis

Santo, Augusto H; Puech-Leão, Pedro; Krutman, Mariana
Fonte: Biblioteca Digital da Produção Intelectual da USP Publicador: Biblioteca Digital da Produção Intelectual da USP
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.05%
Abstract Background Aortic aneurysm and dissection are important causes of death in older people. Ruptured aneurysms show catastrophic fatality rates reaching near 80%. Few population-based mortality studies have been published in the world and none in Brazil. The objective of the present study was to use multiple-cause-of-death methodology in the analysis of mortality trends related to aortic aneurysm and dissection in the state of Sao Paulo, between 1985 and 2009. Methods We analyzed mortality data from the Sao Paulo State Data Analysis System, selecting all death certificates on which aortic aneurysm and dissection were listed as a cause-of-death. The variables sex, age, season of the year, and underlying, associated or total mentions of causes of death were studied using standardized mortality rates, proportions and historical trends. Statistical analyses were performed by chi-square goodness-of-fit and H Kruskal-Wallis tests, and variance analysis. The joinpoint regression model was used to evaluate changes in age-standardized rates trends. A p value less than 0.05 was regarded as significant. Results Over a 25-year period...

Aprender história com sentido para a vida: consciência histórica em estudantes brasileiros e portugueses; Learn history with sense to life: historical consciousness of brazilian and portuguese students.

Alves, Ronaldo Cardoso
Fonte: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP Publicador: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 20/05/2011 PT
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.14%
É possível aprender História com sentido para a Vida? Esta pesquisa, cujo objetivo é compreender em que medida o pensamento histórico de estudantes brasileiros e portugueses apresenta aspectos de uma consciência histórica pertinente para a reflexão acerca das demandas da cultura histórica contemporânea, pautou-se por essa indagação. Em outras palavras, procurou verificar como o ensino de História, nas escolas públicas de Brasil e Portugal, tem contribuído para o desenvolvimento de uma consciência histórica que possibilite a satisfação das carências de orientação temporal e constituição de identidade na sociedade atual. Para a consecução dessa meta coletou informações com o intuito de conhecer os diferentes perfis de caráter socioeconômico e cultural dos grupos pesquisados, além de narrativas discentes geradas pela interpretação de um fato histórico comum a Brasil e Portugal - a transferência da família real portuguesa (1808). Tal material empírico foi analisado com critérios quantitativos e qualitativos, balizados pela interpretação do repertório teóricoepistemológico composto por experiências de autores de diferentes áreas do conhecimento histórico como a Filosofia da História, a Didática da História e a Educação Histórica. Este percurso possibilitou a construção de uma tipologia de análise narrativa que permite verificar as tendências de constituição do sentido histórico à orientação temporal subsumidas a grupos pesquisados. Em outras palavras...

Climate Change and "historical responsibilities"

Goldemberg,José; Guardabassi,Patricia Maria
Fonte: ANPPAS - Revista Ambiente e Sociedade Publicador: ANPPAS - Revista Ambiente e Sociedade
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: text/html
Publicado em 01/04/2012 EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.06%
The historical responsibility of countries listed in the Annex I of the Convention on Climate Change has been used extensively as a justification for the lack of action of countries not included in Annex I to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. We analyzed the contribution of non-Annex I countries to the CO2 emissions in the period 1850 - 2006 to assess their relative contribution to total CO2 emissions. In the period 1980 - 2006 non-Annex I countries represented 44% of the total but this contribution increased in the period 1990 - 2006 to 48%. If we extrapolate present trends to 2020 they will represent 56% in the period 1990 - 2020. The "historical responsibility" of Annex I countries is therefore decreasing. If we take 1990 as the starting year in which the Climate Convention recognized clearly that greenhouse gases are interfering dangerously with the climate system, it becomes very difficult to attribute "blame" and "guilt" to Annex I for their historical contributions. It becomes also quite clear the need of non-Annex I countries to engage with Annex I countries in the effort to reduce emissions. The Copenhagen Accord has no mention of "historical responsibilities".

The secular trends in male:female ratio at birth in postwar industrialized countries.

Jongbloet, P H; Zielhuis, G A; Groenewoud, H M; Pasker-De Jong, P C
Fonte: PubMed Publicador: PubMed
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em /07/2001 EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.16%
Finnish investigators [Vartiainen et al. Environmental Chemicals and Changes in Sex Ratio: Analysis Over 250 Years in Finland. Environ Health Perspect 107:813-815 (1999)] presented the sex ratio of all newborn babies from 1751 to 1997 in order to evaluate whether Finnish long-term data are compatible with the hypothesis that the decrease in the ratio of male to female births after World War I and World War II in industrial countries is caused by environmental factors. They found an increase in the proportion of males from 1751 to 1920, which was interrupted by peaks in male births during World War I and World War II and followed by a decrease thereafter, similar to the trends in many other countries. The turning point of male proportion, however, preceded the period of industrialization and introduction of pesticides and hormonal drugs. Thus, a causal association between these environmental exposures and this decrease is unlikely. In addition, none of the various family parameters (e.g., paternal age, maternal age, age difference in parents, birth order) could explain the historical time trends. Vartiainen et al. concluded that at present it is unknown how these historical trends could be mediated. The postwar secular decline of the male:female ratio at birth is not an isolated phenomenon and parallels the decline of perinatal morbidity and mortality...

Divergent responses to spring and winter warming drive community level flowering trends

Cook, Benjamin I.; Wolkovich, Elizabeth M.; Parmesan, Camille
Fonte: National Academy of Sciences Publicador: National Academy of Sciences
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.09%
Analyses of datasets throughout the temperate midlatitude regions show a widespread tendency for species to advance their springtime phenology, consistent with warming trends over the past 20–50 y. Within these general trends toward earlier spring, however, are species that either have insignificant trends or have delayed their timing. Various explanations have been offered to explain this apparent nonresponsiveness to warming, including the influence of other abiotic cues (e.g., photoperiod) or reductions in fall/winter chilling (vernalization). Few studies, however, have explicitly attributed the historical trends of nonresponding species to any specific factor. Here, we analyzed long-term data on phenology and seasonal temperatures from 490 species on two continents and demonstrate that (i) apparent nonresponders are indeed responding to warming, but their responses to fall/winter and spring warming are opposite in sign and of similar magnitude; (ii) observed trends in first flowering date depend strongly on the magnitude of a given species’ response to fall/winter vs. spring warming; and (iii) inclusion of fall/winter temperature cues strongly improves hindcast model predictions of long-term flowering trends compared with models with spring warming only. With a few notable exceptions...

Trends in U.S. regulatory approvals of the biopharmaceutical therapeutic entities; Trends in United States regulatory approvals of the biopharmaceutical therapeutic entities

Graham, James B., 1976-
Fonte: Massachusetts Institute of Technology Publicador: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado Formato: 100 p.; 5588605 bytes; 5598867 bytes; application/pdf; application/pdf
ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.08%
Pharmaceutical productivity, as measured by annual output of new molecular entities and new therapeutic biologics, has fallen significantly since reaching a peak in 1996. According to Food and Drug Administration (FDA) data, the number of new drug approvals (new molecular entities and new biologics) fell from 50 in 1996 to 29 in 2003 (FDA-BEP database 2004). Meanwhile, non-inflation adjusted expenditures for research and development have almost doubled (PhRMA 2004). This thesis uses time series analysis to characterize historical trends in new drug introductions. Linear modeling and ARIMA modeling are employed to show that the large increase in new drug approvals in 1996 is inconsistent with previous trends. The hypothesis that the 1996 increase in new drug approvals is the consequence of additional FDA processing capacity pursuant to the implementation of the Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA) is considered and rejected, based on an analysis of the underlying causes of the increase. Next, approval trends before and after the implementation of PDUFA are compared. Notably, the percentage of new drug applications resulting in approval has increased since the implementation of PDUFA while the number of applications reviewed per year has not changed significantly. The relationship between the success ratio and drug withdrawal rates is examined...

Fertility in the History of the 20th Century: Trends, theories, policies, discourses

Fonte: Center for Historical Social Research Publicador: Center for Historical Social Research
Tipo: Livro
EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.26%
In this special issue, a pluridisciplinary group of scholars discuss the complex interrelationship among fertility trends, population theories, policies and public discourses. Whereas the three former fields have been intensely studied in demography and its neighboring disciplines, there is still little work on population discourses, and even less that link them to the trends, theories and policies of population. The editors hope to stimulate the scientific debate on this topic, to raise awareness of these interconnections, and to contribute to more theoretical integration. The special issue is organized in three sections: The first one discusses approaches to the study of fertility across historical periods. The second section focuses on discourses and politics and their practical impact on reproductive behavior. The third section concentrates on recent trends in fertility, mainly in Europe and East Asia.; -- Editorial -- Approaches to the Study of Fertility Across Historical Periods -- Regulating Reproduction: Discourses and politics -- Recent Trends, Variations, and Theoretical Reflections: Fertility in Europe and East Asia in comparative perpective

Historical trends in abiotic and biotic resource flows in the EU (1990-2010)

BENINI LORENZO; MANCINI LUCIA; SALA SERENELLA
Fonte: Sciforum Electronic Conference Series Publicador: Sciforum Electronic Conference Series
Tipo: Contributions to Conferences Formato: Online
ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.05%
In its Communication “Roadmap to a Resource Efficient Europe” the European Commission defined a vision for EU resource consumption by 2050: the economy will have grown compatibly with resource constraints and planetary boundaries, preserving a high standard of living and lowering the environmental impacts. Such vision entails the sustainable management of natural resources, i.e. raw materials, energy, water, air, land and soil as well as biodiversity and ecosystems. In this paper, we focus on analysing the trends of abiotic and biotic resource consumption within the EU27 over the past 20 years, beyond traditional mass-based approaches to resource accounting (e.g. Domestic Material Consumption DMC and total material requirements, TMR). In fact, our assessment is performed at inventory level (thus accounting for the biophysical flows of resources) and at impact assessment level, using different life-cycle impact assessment methods (LCIA) for resource depletion and scarcity. The resources considered in the analysis include only those extracted in EU territory, including: raw materials (metals and minerals), energy carriers, biotic and water resources and the timeframe is 20 years (1990-2010). The final aim is the assessment of the evolution of resource flows in the economy (LCI) and the related resource depletion (LCIA) due to European production and consumption. Trends of resource consumption and associated depletion as well as other existing indicators for monitoring resource efficiency are reported and analysed with the aim of: highlighting the occurrence of decoupling over time...

Understanding the contribution of habitats and regional variation to long-term population trends in tricolored blackbirds

Graves, Emily E; Holyoak, Marcel; Rodd Kelsey, T; Meese, Robert J
Fonte: Blackwell Publishing Ltd Publicador: Blackwell Publishing Ltd
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.11%
Population trends represent a minimum amount of information required to assess the conservation status of a species. However, understanding and detecting trends can be complicated by variation among habitats and regions, and by dispersal connecting habitats through source-sink dynamics. We analyzed trends in breeding populations between habitats and regions to better understand the overall dynamics of a species' decline. Specifically, we analyzed historical trends in breeding populations of tricolored blackbirds (Agelaius tricolor) using breeding records from 1907 to 2009. The species breeds itinerantly and ephemerally uses multiple habitat types and breeding areas, which make interpretation of trends complex. We found overall abundance declines of 63% between 1935 and 1975. Since 1980 overall declines became nonsignificant and obscure despite large amounts of data from 1980 to 2009. Temporal trends differed between breeding habitat types and were associated with regional differences in population declines. A new habitat, triticale crops (a wheat-rye hybrid grain) produced colonies 40× larger, on average, than other breeding habitats, and contributed to a change in regional distribution since it primarily occurred in a single region. The mechanism for such an effect is not clear...

The utility of historical trends to project future numbers of crashes in South Australia

Anderson, R.
Fonte: Australasian College of Road Safety; online Publicador: Australasian College of Road Safety; online
Tipo: Conference paper
Publicado em //2011 EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.05%
In this paper, some simple models are examined for their utility in projecting future fatality numbers. Functions that represent the crash rate and travel exposure are fitted to time series of South Australian crash data. The model is used to examine the utility of forecasting crash numbers based on medium to long-term trends. (The model is simple as it does not seek to attribute changes to any set of factors in particular). In addition, South Australian data from 2001-2010 are examined in the light of systematic road safety changes that were made over the period corresponding to the road safety strategy that was active over the period. The results show that fitting models to long-term trends has some utility for future predictions, but actual numbers (and shorter term trends) may significantly deviate from such a model. Furthermore, results indicate that models based on medium-term trends are an imperfect guide to the medium term future. Finally, a discussion about recent features in the time-series of traffic fatalities is given. It is argued that to reach targets that have been set in the 2011-2020 state strategy (no more than 80 deaths per annum by 2020), a reduction in risk similar to that brought about in the previous decade by lowering urban speed limits will have to be achieved. The most effective way of achieving this will be through broadly-based changes to the road transport system that will lower risk for the greatest number of road users within the decade. However...

Historical Trends in Childlessness

Rowland, Donald
Fonte: Sage Publications Inc Publicador: Sage Publications Inc
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Relevância na Pesquisa
45.98%
Changes in the rates of childlessness over time are explored using European, Australian, American, and Japanese data from censuses, national registers, and large-scale surveys. The trends are remarkably similar across the countries for which data are avai

O tema da formação de professores: trajetórias e tendências do campo na pesquisa e na ação; The theme of teacher education: trajectories and trends of the field in research and action

Cunha, Maria Isabel da
Fonte: Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Educação Publicador: Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Educação
Tipo: info:eu-repo/semantics/article; info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion; ; ; ; ; ; Formato: application/pdf; application/pdf
Publicado em 01/09/2013 POR; ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.05%
O conhecimento dos movimentos epistemológicos, culturais e políticos que definiu, em uma perspectiva histórica, a compreensão do campo da formação de professores, pode ser uma significativa contribuição para a prática da formação. Entender esse processo na sua dimensão evolutiva favorece o entendimento da complexidade desse campo de conhecimento e as múltiplas influências que se estabelecem sobre ele. O objetivo deste trabalho, portanto, é mapear e estudar as tendências teórico-práticas que marcaram a compreensão da docência no Brasil, preferencialmente no período que se inicia na segunda metade do século XX. O trabalho reconhece sua condição aleatória e não pretende exclusividade a respeito do tema. A partir do mapeamento realizado, conclui-se que as diferentes tendências teórico-práticas para a docência tiveram significativos impactos nas pesquisas educacionais e essas, por sua vez, também exerceram um papel de protagonismo nas mudanças paradigmáticas que atingiram a formação de professores. Na medida em que o paradigma da racionalidade técnica foi dando lugar à compreensão do fenômeno educativo como produzido social e culturalmente, houve significativas mudanças nas formas de produzir conhecimento na área da educação. Todas as fases que marcam as tendências dos estudos a respeito da formação de professores produziram conceitos e se apresentaram como produtos e produtoras das ações formativas...

The Historical Ecology and Social-Ecological Systems of Kona Coast Coral Reefs: towards 'Peopled' Approaches to Marine Science and Management

Shackeroff, Janna M.
Fonte: Universidade Duke Publicador: Universidade Duke
Tipo: Dissertação Formato: 25063816 bytes; application/pdf
Publicado em 23/04/2008 EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.15%

No corner of the world's oceans is untouched by humans. Yet in marine science, management, and conservation, oceans are consistently treated as 'unpeopled', that is, human systems are divorced systematically from ecological systems, and assumptions of human/environmental relationships are oversimplified. This dissertation aims to contribute to interdisciplinary, or 'peopled', approaches to marine sciences and management by integrating biophysical and social sciences, specifically historical ecology and resilience thinking on social-ecological systems. Herein, I examine this theoretically (Chapter 2) and empirically by investigating the coral reefs of Hawaii Island's Kona Coast historically, through the oral histories of 'ocean experts', diverse locally-living people from diverse knowledge systems. I investigate human, biophysical, and social-ecological aspects of 'ecological change.'

Chapter 3 demonstrates that currently there are six expert ocean knowledge systems surrounding Kona's reefs: Native Hawaiians, dive shop operators, tropical aquarium collectors, shoreline fishers, scientists, and conservationists. These are distinct in what experts know about Kona's reefs, and how they know it. The giving and taking of authority between ocean experts...

Historical temporal trends in monthly, seasonal, and annual mean, minimum, and maximum streamflows from the Okanagan River watershed in south-central British Columbia, Canada

Sierra Rayne; Kaya Forest
Fonte: Nature Preceedings Publicador: Nature Preceedings
Tipo: Manuscript
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.11%
Historical trends in monthly, seasonal, and annual mean streamflows, as well as minimum and maximum monthly streamflows, were investigated at nine hydrometric stations in the Okanagan River watershed from south-central British Columbia, Canada. Overall, mean annual streamflows in the Okanagan River watershed are not exhibiting any significant time trends. No consistent declines in monthly minimum streamflows are evident at any point during the hydrologic year. Mean monthly and monthly maximum streamflows in tributary streams to the mainstem system appear to be significantly increasing over time during the spring snowmelt period of March and April. Any temporal changes in flow patterns at the mainstem Okanagan River stations likely reflect alterations in water management strategies over time at the respective upstream dams.

Observed and modelled trends in rainfall and temperature for South Africa: 1960-2010

MacKellar,Neil; New,Mark; Jack,Chris
Fonte: South African Journal of Science Publicador: South African Journal of Science
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: text/html
Publicado em 01/08/2014 EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.08%
Observed trends in seasonal and annual total rainfall, number of rain days and daily maximum and minimum temperature were calculated for a number of stations in South Africa for the period 1960-2010. Statistically significant decreases in rainfall and the number of rain days are shown over the central and northeastern parts of the country in the autumn months and significant increases in the number of rain days around the southern Drakensberg are evident in spring and summer. Maximum temperatures have increased significantly throughout the country for all seasons and increases in minimum temperatures are shown for most of the country. A notable exception is the central interior, where minimum temperatures have decreased significantly. Regionally aggregated trends for six water management zones covering the entire country are not evident for total rainfall, but there are some significant trends for the number of rain days. Temperature in these zones has increased significantly for most seasons, with the exception of the central interior. Comparison of the observed trends with statistically downscaled global climate model simulations reveals that the models do not represent the observed rainfall changes nor the cooling trend of minimum temperature in the central interior. Although this result does not rule out the possibility of attributing observed local changes in rainfall to anthropogenically forced global change...

Tracking progress towards the Millennium Development Goals: reaching consensus on child mortality levels and trends

Fonte: World Health Organization Publicador: World Health Organization
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: text/html
Publicado em 01/03/2006 EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.05%
The increased attention to tracking progress towards the Millennium Development Goals (MDG), including Goal 4 of reducing child mortality, has drawn attention to a number of interrelated technical, operational and political challenges and to the underlying weaknesses of country health information systems upon which reliable monitoring depends. Assessments of child mortality published in 2005, for almost all low-income countries, are based on an extrapolation of the trends observed during the 1990s, rather than on the empirical data for more recent years. The validity of the extrapolation depends on the quality and quantity of the data used, and many countries lack suitable data. In the long run, it is hoped that vital registration or sample registration systems will be established to monitor vital events in a sustainable way. However, in the short run, tracking child mortality in high-mortality countries will continue to rely on household surveys and extrapolations of historical trends. This will require more collaborative efforts both to collect data through initiatives to strengthen health information systems at the country level, and to harmonize the estimation process. The latter objective requires the continued activity of a coordinating group of international agencies and academics that aims to produce transparent estimates- through the consistent application of an agreed-upon methodology- for monitoring at the international level.