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The impact of government spending on the private sector : crowding-out versus crowding-in effects

Furceri, Davide; Sousa, Ricardo M.
Fonte: Blackwell Publishing Ltd Publicador: Blackwell Publishing Ltd
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em //2011 ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.2%
The aim of this paper is to analyze the impact of government spending on the private sector, assessing the existence of crowding-out versus crowding-in effects. Using a panel of 145 countries from 1960 to 2007, the results suggest that government spending produces important crowding-out effects, by negatively affecting both private consumption and investment. Moreover, while the effects do not seem to depend on the different phases of economic cycle, they vary considerably among regions. The results are economically and statistically significant, and robust to several econometric techniques.; Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT)

How Large Is the Government Spending Multiplier? Evidence from World Bank Lending

Kraay, Aart
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.52%
This paper proposes a novel method of isolating fluctuations in public spending that are likely to be uncorrelated with contemporaneous macroeconomic shocks and can be used to estimate government spending multipliers. The approach relies on two features unique to many low-income countries: (1) borrowing from the World Bank finances a substantial fraction of public spending, and (2) actual spending on World Bank-financed projects is typically spread out over several years following the original approval of the project. These two features imply that fluctuations in spending on World Bank projects in a given year are in large part determined by fluctuations in project approval decisions made in previous years, and so are unlikely to be correlated with shocks to output in the current year. World Bank project-level disbursement data are used to isolate the component of public spending associated with project approvals from previous years, which in turn can be used to estimate government spending multipliers, in a sample of 29 aid-dependent low-income countries. The estimated multipliers are small...

Government Spending on Health in Lao PDR : Evidence and Issues

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.55%
The note analyzes overall trends in government health financing and expenditure patterns and discusses some of the efficiency and equity issues pertaining to current government health spending patterns. The policy note is one of a series of health financing analyses, complementing earlier policy notes focusing on out-of-pocket spending as well as community-based and social health insurance schemes in the country. This reliance on out-of-pocket payments represents a considerable financial barrier to utilization of health services. The prominence of out-of-pocket spending in the form of user fees and revolving drug funds (RDFs) also raises concerns over management of funds at health facility level and regarding the potential for over prescription. In contrast, social health insurance expenditures are very low in Lao PDR: social insurance schemes cover about 11.4 percent of the population but account for only about 2.8 percent of total health spending. The Lao government has committed to increasing government spending to 9 percent of the budget...

Government Spending Multipliers in Developing Countries : Evidence from Lending by Official Creditors

Kraay, Aart
Fonte: American Economic Association Publicador: American Economic Association
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.22%
This paper uses a novel loan-level dataset covering lending by official creditors to developing country governments to construct an instrument for government spending. These loans typically finance multi-year spending projects, with disbursements linked to the stages of project implementation. The identification strategy exploits the long lags between approval and eventual disbursement of these loans to isolate a predetermined component of public spending associated with past loan approval decisions taken before the realization of contemporaneous shocks. In a large sample of 102 developing countries over the period 1970-2010, the one-year spending multiplier is reasonably-precisely estimated to be around 0.4.

Electoral Accountability and Local Government Spending in Indonesia

Skoufias, Emmanuel; Narayan, Ambar; Dasgupta, Basab; Kaiser, Kai
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.52%
This paper takes advantage of the exogenous phasing of direct elections in districts and applies the double-difference estimator to measure impacts on (i) human development outcomes and (ii) the pattern of public spending and revenue generation at the district level. The analysis reveals that four years after the switch to direct elections, there have been no significant effects on human development outcomes. However, the estimates of the impact of Pilkada on health expenditures at the district level suggest that directly elected district officials may have become more responsive to local needs at least in the area of health. The composition of district expenditures changes considerably during the year and sometimes the year before the elections, shifting toward expenditure categories that allow incumbent district heads running as candidates in the direct elections to "buy" voter support. Electoral reforms did not lead to higher revenue generation from own sources and had no effect on the budget surplus of districts with directly elected heads.

Kyrgyz Republic Public Expenditure Review Policy Notes : Strategic Setting

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.55%
The current approach to fiscal policy is delivering suboptimal outcomes for the citizens of the Kyrgyz Republic. The past five years have been difficult for the Kyrgyz Republic, with one shock following another. Government spending ballooned to 39 percent of GDP in 2012 one of the highest ratios among developing countries globally, as the authorities tried to mitigate the shocks. However, despite increases in spending, the quality of health services remains poor; above 80 percent of 15 year-olds are classified as illiterate; wages in the public sector are low; and only 6 percent of social assistance reaches the poorest members of society. In addition, risks are mounting in the pension system, few instruments exist to support the vulnerable and the physical capital stock is depreciating, especially in the energy sector. This Public Expenditure Review (PER) focuses on the effectiveness, level, and composition of public spending in number of sectors. The objective of this synthesis note is to better understand the overall environment for fiscal policy as well as the nature and composition of public revenues and expenditures. The sectoral policy notes review the challenges and options in specific sectors...

Entrepreneurship and the Allocation of Government Spending Under Imperfect Markets

Islam, Asif
Fonte: World Bank Group, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank Group, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.51%
Previous studies have established a negative relationship between total government spending and entrepreneurship activity. However, the relationship between the composition of government spending and entrepreneurial activity has been woefully under-researched. This paper fills this gap in the literature by empirically exploring the relationship between government spending on social and public goods and entrepreneurial activity under the assumption of credit market imperfections. By combining macroeconomic government spending data with individual-level entrepreneurship data, the analysis finds a positive relationship between increasing the share of social and public goods at the cost of private subsidies and entrepreneurship while confirming a negative relationship between total government consumption and entrepreneurial activity. The implication may be that expansion of total government spending includes huge increases in private subsidies, at the cost of social and public goods, and is detrimental for entrepreneurship.

THE TIME-(IN)VARIANT INTERPLAY OF GOVERNMENT SPENDING AND PRIVATE CONSUMPTION IN BRAZIL

Ferreira,Diego
Fonte: Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade de Ribeirão Preto da Universidade de São Paulo Publicador: Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade de Ribeirão Preto da Universidade de São Paulo
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: text/html
Publicado em 01/09/2015 EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.13%
AbstractThis paper analyzes the relationship between government spending and private consumption in Brazil through an application of a VAR with time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility, estimated with Bayesian simulation over the 1996:Q1–2014:Q2 period. The findings reveal that fiscal policy is indeed effective in stimulating GDP and private consumption, which characterizes the presence of positive Keynesian multipliers. However, these positive effects are only sustained on the shortrun. Also, stochastic volatility seems to have decreased from 2000 onwards, suggesting that Brazil has steadily improved its macroeconomic stability after the adoption of the inflation-targeting framework and the Fiscal Responsibility Law.

Public Spending and Growth in an Economic and Monetary Union; The Case of West Africa

Moreno-Dodson, Blanca; Bayraktar, Nihal
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Working Paper; Publications & Research :: Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.59%
The focus of the paper is on how public spending volume, composition (current versus capital), and quality are linked to the per capita growth rates of the West Africa economic and monetary union (WAEMU) countries, which have been fluctuating and remain relatively low compared to other parts of the world. The empirical analysis covers the period 2000-2013. The results indicate that total public spending has a significant impact on growth. While the impact of the capital component is positive and statistically significant, the effect of the current component is consistently negative, but not significant. When the capital component is further split into two: public fixed capital investment and public other capital expenditures, defined as total public capital expenditure minus public fixed capital investment, the results show that not only physical capital formation but also human capital spending is important for growth in the WAEMU group. While the volatility measure for public investment has a clear negative and statistically significant impact on growth...

Comprehensive Public Expenditure Review 2013 : Eye on Budget - Spending for Results; Kenya - Toleo lililorahisishwa uchunguzi wa matumizi ya pesa za umma : tathmini ya bajeti - matumizi yenye matokeo bora

Ministry of Devolution and Planning
Fonte: Government of Kenya, Nairobi Publicador: Government of Kenya, Nairobi
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Public Expenditure Review; Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.52%
This public expenditure review (PER) provides an assessment of the extent to which expenditure addresses national priorities in an effort to strengthen the link between government policies, planning, and budgeting. This report is prepared to provide a critical assessment of public spending, challenges, weaknesses, and successes in the past three years (2009 to 2012). The report subsequently informs current and future expenditure through policies that influence budget decisions. It links public expenditure to performance of key sectors in the economy for the three year period; while giving policy and performance outlook focusing on the implementation of the constitution of Kenya 2010 in general and devolution in particular. This report gives an outline on sector performance of programs and reviews expenditures for the period. It provides recommendations to improve implementation of the budget in terms of efficiency, effectiveness, timeliness, and target for better service delivery. This report accentuates the institutional reforms underpinned in the constitution of Kenya 2010 and explores the opportunities to catalyze Kenya's growth as envisaged in the economic blue print...

Government Spending Multipliers in Developing Countries : Evidence from Lending by Official Creditors

Kraay, Aart
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.53%
This paper uses a novel loan-level dataset covering lending by official creditors to developing country governments to construct an instrument for public spending that can be used to estimate government spending multipliers. Loans from official creditors (primarily multilateral development banks and bilateral aid agencies) are a major source of financing for government spending in developing countries. These loans typically finance public spending projects that take several years to implement, with multiple disbursements linked to the stages of project implementation. The long disbursement periods for these loans imply that the bulk of government spending financed by official creditors in a given year reflects loan approval decisions made in many previous years, before current-year macroeconomic shocks are known. Loan-level commitment and disbursement transactions from the World Bank's Debtor Reporting System database are used to isolate a predetermined component of government spending associated with past loan approvals. This can be used as an instrument to estimate spending multipliers for a large sample of 102 developing countries. The one-year government spending multiplier is reasonably-precisely estimated to be around 0.4...

Towards 2015 : Spending for Indonesia's Development, Shaping the Prospects of a Middle-Income Country

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Policy Note; Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.59%
This report discusses the future of Indonesia's public expenditures as it enters the 21st century. It contributes to the discussion on Indonesia's spending priorities for the years ahead. These choices will impact the lives of Indonesians, and their opportunities to grow richer and receive better services. The report will contribute to Indonesia s next five-year plan, the RPJM, which will take effect in January 2010. Indonesia has been one of the most successful countries in reducing its debt-to-GDP ratio. Since 1999, when debt levels reached over 90 percent of GDP, Indonesia has reduced its debt levels to just above 30 percent of GDP by the end of 2008. Education spending increased from 11 percent of total government spending in 2001 to 15 percent in 2008. Chapter 1 discusses public spending from 2001 to 2009, including discretionary spending, key sectors, subsidies and decentralization. Chapter 2 analyzes Indonesia's economy in the current (2009) economic downturn. Indonesia is in a position of relative economic strength despite the impact of the global financial crisis. This is largely thanks to its broad-based growth that has avoided over-reliance on exports. The share of output that Indonesia exports is the smallest of the major Southeast Asian economies. Chapter 3 presents the future of Indonesia's fiscal growth to 2015. Notwithstanding noteworthy achievements over the past decade...

Fiscal Multipliers in Recessions and Expansions : Does It Matter Whether Government Spending Is Increasing or Decreasing?

Riera-Crichton, Daniel; Vegh, Carlos A.; Vuletin, Guillermo
Fonte: World Bank Group, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank Group, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.44%
Using non-linear methods, this paper finds that existing estimates of government spending multipliers in expansion and recession may yield biased results by ignoring whether government spending is increasing or decreasing. For industrial countries, the problem originates in the fact that, contrary to one's priors, it is not always the case that government spending is going up in recessions (i.e., acting countercyclically). In almost as many cases, government spending is actually going down (i.e., acting procyclically). Since the economy does not respond symmetrically to government spending increases or decreases, the "true" long-run multiplier for bad times (and government spending going up) turns out to be 2.3 compared to 1.3 if we just distinguish between recession and expansion. In the case of developing countries, the bias results from the fact that the multiplier for recessions and government spending going down (the "when-it-rains-it-pours" phenomenon) is larger than when government spending is going up.

Reprioritizing Government Spending on Health : Pushing an Elephant Up the Stairs?

Tandon, Ajay; Fleisher, Lisa; Li, Rong; Yap, Wei Aun
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.62%
Countries vary widely with respect to the share of government spending on health, a metric that can serve as a proxy for the extent to which health is prioritized by governments. World Health Organization (WHO) data estimate that, in 2011, health's share of aggregate government expenditure in the 170 countries for which data were available averaged 12 percent. However, country differences were striking: ranging from a low of 1 percent in Myanmar to a high of 28 percent in Costa Rica. Some of the observed differences in health's share of government spending across countries are unsurprisingly related to differences in national income. However, significant variations exist in health's share of government spending even after controlling for national income. This paper provides a global overview of health's share of government spending and summarizes key theoretical and empirical perspectives on allocation of public resources to health vis-a-vis other sectors from the perspective of reprioritization, one of the modalities for realizing fiscal space for health. Theory and cross-country empirical analyses do not provide clear...

Cambodia - More Efficient Government Spending for Strong and Inclusive Growth : Integrated Fiduciary Assessment and Public Expenditure Review

World Bank
Fonte: World Bank Publicador: World Bank
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Public Expenditure Review
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.57%
Cambodia has made substantial progress in economic reconstruction since the 1993 elections helped return peace to the war ravaged country. The report is organized as: the remainder of chapter one presents the strategic background, including macroeconomic and fiscal developments. The chapter concludes with options for restoring and expanding the government's fiscal space. Chapter two discusses the level and composition of public spending. Chapters three, four and five discuss the level, composition and effectiveness of government spending on agriculture, health, and education, respectively. The analysis suggests that government spending in these areas is lower relative to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) than in countries with similar levels of income per capita. Chapter six discusses Cambodia's progress and challenges in reforming public expenditure policy and public finances. The chapter underscores the key areas where additional attention is needed to help advance the reform agenda.

Demystifying China’s Fiscal Stimulus; Policy Research Working Paper; No. 6221

Fardoust, Shahrokh; Lin, Justin Yifu; Luo, Xubei
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.54%
China's government economic stimulus package in 2008-09 appears to have worked well. It seems to have been about the right size, included a number of appropriate components, and was well timed. Its subnational component was designed to maximize the impact of the stimulus package on the economy and minimize the potential procyclical elements that are usually built into subnational fiscal mechanisms in federal countries. Moreover, China's massive fiscal stimulus played an important role in the overall recovery of the global economy. Using a simple analytical framework, this paper focuses on two key factors behind the success of the stimulus: investments in bottleneck-easing infrastructure projects and countercyclical nature of subnational spending based on the assumption that well-chosen infrastructure projects could improve business climate and thereby crowd in the private investment. The paper concludes that the expansionary subnational government spending played a key role in strengthening the overall impact of the stimulus and sustaining growth. It also highlights the importance of public investment quality and cautions about the sustainability of local government financing through the domestic banking system and increases in local governments off balance sheet or contingent liabilities. These lessons may be of particular relevance today for China...

The Distribution of Mexico's Public Spending on Education

Lopez-Acevedo, Gladys; Salinas, Angel
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research; Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.26%
Research shows that education has played a crucial role in raising levels of earnings and that returns to education in Mexico have increased, particularly in higher education and in the upper tail of the conditional earnings distribution. The authors examine patterns of public spending on education in the face of further increases in earnings inequality. They analyze the incidence of benefits using two sets of data: data on unit costs per student by state and by education level, and data from surveys on household income and spending. Among their findings: Nationally, the poorest income groups get most of the national and state subsidy for primary education. At higher education levels the poor get progressively smaller subsidies. For all Mexico, government spending on primary education is very progressive. In lower secondary education it is neutral. And in upper secondary education it benefits mainly the middle and upper classes. Tertiary education is strongly regressive, benefiting mainly the richest deciles and mainly in urban areas. But those government patterns vary by region. In the central region average total spending is more uniformly distributed than the national pattern. In the northern region the subsidy is progressive. Primary education is neutral and higher levels of instruction are moderately regressive. In the central region primary schooling is very progressive...

Fiscal Policy for Growth and Development in Tajikistan

Brownbridge, Martin; Canagarajah, Sudharshan
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.51%
Tajikistan's economy has recovered strongly after the collapse of the 1990s, but sustaining rapid economic growth over the long term and reducing poverty present major challenges for policymakers. This paper contributes to the debate over the strategic role for fiscal policy to play in meeting these challenges, utilizing the "fiscal space" approach to assess the long-term potential for expanding public provision of growth-promoting goods and services and evaluating the priorities for public spending. It also analyzes the long-term risks to fiscal sustainability, from external public debt and the quasi fiscal deficit of the electricity sector. The paper contends that institutional reforms in key areas, notably public financial management, tax administration, and the energy sector, are crucial for generating fiscal space and for ensuring that higher levels of public spending are translated into stronger economic growth and poverty reduction. The priorities for government spending should be education, health...

The Role of Central Bank Operating Procedures in an Economy with Productive Government Spending

Caballé, Jordi; Hromcova, Jana
Fonte: Conselho Superior de Investigações Científicas Publicador: Conselho Superior de Investigações Científicas
Tipo: Documento de trabajo
ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.25%
Trabajo publicado como artículo en Computational Economics 37(1): 39-65 (2011).-- http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10614-010-9198-y; The choice of either the rate of monetary growth or the nominal interest rate as the instrument controlled by monetary authorities has both positive and normative implications for economic performance. We reexamine some of the issues related to the choice of the monetary policy instrument in a dynamic general equilibrium model exhibiting endogenous growth in which a fraction of productive government spending is financed by means of issuing currency. When we evaluate the performance of the two monetary instruments attending to the fluctuations of endogenous variables, we find that the inflation rate is less volatile under nominal interest rate targeting. Concerning the fluctuations of consumption and of the growth rate, both monetary policy instruments lead to statistically equivalent volatilities. Finally, we show that none of these two targeting procedures displays unambiguously higher welfare levels.

The Time-(In)Variant Interplay of Government Spending and Private Consumption in Brazil; The Time-(In) Variant Interplay of Government Spending and Private Consumption in Brazil

Ferreira, Diego
Fonte: Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade de RP Publicador: Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade de RP
Tipo: info:eu-repo/semantics/article; info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion; ; ; Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 19/09/2015 ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.2%
This paper analyzes the relationship between government spending and private consumption in Brazil through an application of a VAR with time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility, estimated with Bayesian simulation over the 1996:Q1–2014:Q2 period. The findings reveal that fiscal policy is indeed effective in stimulating GDP and private consumption, which characterizes the presence of positive Keynesian multipliers. However, these positive effects are only sustained on the short-run. Also, stochastic volatility seems to have decreased from 2000 onwards, suggesting that Brazil has steadily improved itsmacroeconomic stability after the adoption of the inflation-targeting framework and the Fiscal Responsibility Law.; O presente estudo analisa a relação entre gasto público e consumo privado no Brasil através de um modelo VAR com parâmetros variantes no tempo e volatilidade estocástica, estimado com simulação bayesiana para o período 1996:T1–2014:T2. Nossos resultados revelam que a política fiscal é de fato efetiva para estimular o PIB e o consumo privado, caracterizando a presenção de multiplicadores keynesianos positivos. Porém, tais efeitos positivos apenas são sustentados no curtíssimo-prazo. Além disso, a volatilidade estocástica se reduziu a partir de 2000...