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What explains the short-term dynamics of the prices of CO2 emissions?

Hammoudeh, Shawkat; Nguyen, Duc Khuong; Sousa, Ricardo M.
Fonte: Universidade do Minho. Núcleo de Investigação em Políticas Económicas (NIPE) Publicador: Universidade do Minho. Núcleo de Investigação em Políticas Económicas (NIPE)
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento
Publicado em //2014 ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.5%
Using the vector auto-regression (VAR) and the vector error-correction Models (VECM), this paper analyzes the short-term dynamics of the prices of CO2 emissions in response to changes in the prices of oil, coal, natural gas, electricity and carbon emission allowances. The results show that: (i) a positive shock to the crude oil prices has a negative effect on the CO2 allowance prices; (ii) an unexpected increase in the natural gas prices raises the price of CO2 emissions; (iii) a positive shock to the prices of the fuel of choice, coal, has virtually no significant impact on the CO2 prices; (iv) there is a clear positive effect of the coal prices on the CO2 allowance prices when the electricity prices are excluded from the VAR system; and (v) a positive shock to the electricity prices reduces the price of the CO2 allowances. We also find that the energy price shocks have a persistent impact on the CO2 allowance prices, with the largest effect occurring six months after a shock strikes. The effect is particularly strong in the case of the natural gas price shocks. Additionally, we estimate that it takes between 7.3 and 9.6 months to halve the gap between the actual and the equilibrium prices of the CO2 allowances, i.e., to erase any price over- or undervaluations after a shock strikes. Finally...

Assessing the Impact of Higher Oil Prices in Latin America

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
EN_US
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46.52%
For some Latin American countries - especially, the oil importers in the Caribbean - rising energy prices could pose a significant threat to their current account sustainability, particularly if they are accompanied by other negative shocks. In some countries the fiscal costs associated with subsidies to protect domestic consumers have been considerable so far. Hence, a better understanding of the effects of high oil prices and potential responses in the region is needed. This report evaluates the effects of oil shocks on economic performance for a sample of selected Latin American countries. The effects at the country level depend not only on the structural characteristics of the economy, such as the degree of dependence on oil, but also on the policy reactions to rising prices. Among the countries included in our study we have: large economies (Argentina, Brazil, Colombia and Mexico), net oil exporters (Venezuela and Ecuador), and net oil importers (Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guyana and Honduras).

Vietnam : Framework for Thermal BOT Tenders and Strategy for Gas Coordination and Harmonization with Market Roadmap, Volume 1

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
EN_US
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46.57%
The purpose of this Volume 1 report is to explore how development of the gas andelectricity sectors can be better coordinated within this dynamic environment. In particular,this report aims to: Briefly outline the gas resources and developments in Vietnam, and describe the current institutional arrangements for the gas sector and how they relate to overall gas and electricity planning; Identify key gas sector issues as they relate to gas and electricity sector planning in general and BOT electricity generation project development, and in particular identify the development and operating risks for a BOT electricity generation project developer and suggest mitigation measures for these risks ;Suggest mechanisms to improve gas and electricity planning coordination. Present a case study that illustrates some of the gas and electricity planning issues and how these would be addressed if the suggested planning changes were implemented. This assignment has been undertaken during a period of unprecedented change in Vietnam. The electricity sector is part way through the complex process of introducing a market. In global world energy markets...

Cameroonian LP Gas Sector Study

Belgedj, Mourad; Merklein, H.A.; Nkoto-Angoula, Joël
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.48%
This study is a small-scale follow-up to an earlier World Bank study that analyzed the market failure of LPG in Nigeria and developed a roadmap to develop the use of LPG in that country to its full potential. Given the success of the Nigerian LPG work, it seemed obvious that other oil and gas-producing countries could benefit from the insights gained in Nigeria. Not unlike Nigeria, Cameroon has a thriving oil industry, yet it continues to flare most of its associated gas, burning more than enough LPG in the process to meet all its domestic needs and leave more for exports, while at the same time, it is importing LPG at world prices. Clearly, ifany country qualifies for an LPG policy review, it is Cameroon.

Pakistan : Oil and Gas Review

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
EN_US
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46.56%
Substantial progess has been made in Pakistan in the restructuring and reform of the oil and gas sectors, deregulation of prices, and privatization of selected assets. The reforms have enhanced transparency, making decisionmakers aware of the various aspects of the business. This review documents the accomplishments to date, and attempts to identify measures that merit priority attention with respect to natural gas, petroleum downstream, and macroeconomic management. The report concludes that Pakistan would benefit greatly from pursuing the reform program it initiated in 2000. The remaining measures will enable the government to unlock the full indigenous resource potential to accelerate growth and improve the welfare of the population. It would release scarce public resources from the hydrocarbon sector, which could then be mobilized for other priority needs like health and education. The reform process would be greatly facilitated through consultations with stakeholders, and using international experience in oil and gas sector reform. A competitive...

Export Restraints on Russian Natural Gas and Raw Timber : What Are the Economic Impacts?

Tarr, David G.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
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46.56%
Export restraints by the Russian Federation on natural gas and timber have been the source of major controversy between the European Union and the Russian Federation. The analysis of this paper suggests that the export restraints in natural gas very substantially benefit Russia. On the other hand, in raw timber the analysis suggests that a substantial reduction of Russian export taxes would increase Russian welfare. The paper explains that Gazprom has failed to invest adequately, resulting in little development of new gas supplies. The result has been progressively increasing use by Gazprom of Central Asian gas supplies, at progressively higher prices for Russia. The increased prices of gas for Russian consumers have shown that it is crucial for Russia to allow new entrants and to introduce competition in the Russian domestic market. Without export restraints, however, competition among multiple gas suppliers from Russia would erode or eliminate the monopoly profits of the Russian Federation on gas exports. Thus...

Low Oil Prices

Boratynski, Jakub; Kasek, Leszek
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.58%
Oil prices on global markets have plunged from United States (U.S.) $115 per barrel in mid-June of 2014 to U.S. $48 at end-January 2015, while other fuel prices have continued the slow downward trend of recent years. The rapid decline in oil prices by about 60 percent was accompanied by U.S. dollar appreciation against the major global currencies (except the Swiss franc), partly offsetting the oil price decline measured in currencies other than the dollar. The impact assessment of the oil price shock was conducted using a multi-county, multi-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, PLACE, maintained by the Center for Climate Policy Analysis (CCPA). The effects of a permanent 60 percent oil price shock are assessed against a baseline scenario through 2020 based on the International Energy Agency (IEA) 2012 world energy outlook assuming a high oil price scenario of U.S. $118 in 2015 and U.S. $128 in 2020 (both in 2010 constant prices) and correlated price changes of coal (by 50 percent), and natural gas (by 30 percent). Model simulations show that...

The relationship between crude oil and natural gas prices and its effect on demand

Rosthal, Jennifer Elizabeth
Fonte: Universidade Rice Publicador: Universidade Rice
ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.5%
The overall theme of the three chapters is the relationship between the prices of natural gas and crude oil, and the factors that cause short run departures from the long run equilibrium price relationship. In the first chapter, we find evidence that the link between natural gas and crude oil prices is indirect, acting through competition at the margin between natural gas and residual fuel oil. We also find that technology is critical to the long run relationship between fuel prices, and short run departures from long run equilibrium are influenced by product inventories, weather, other seasonal factors and supply shocks such as hurricanes. Once establishing that this long run relationship exists, I extend my research to determine what drives this price relationship in the second and third chapters. Specifically I focus on the driving demand factors that keep these prices moving together. In the power sector, I focus on substitution between natural gas and crude oil on two levels. First, I focus on dispatch decisions and where natural gas generation falls on the stack relative to oil-fired generation. Starting with a translog functional form the paper estimates switching within NERC regions and sub-regions. However, there are some limitations with this functional form and the inability to capture this switching is made clear through an examination of plant-level switching behavior. Therefore...

Peru's Downstream Natural Gas Sector : A Preliminary Assessment

Reinstein, David; Benítez, Daniel A. Benítez; Johnson, Todd M.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Energy Study; Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.5%
This study assesses the natural gas market in Peru. In the process of evaluating the downstream market, the study identifies opportunities for meeting the Government s aspirational goals with respect to energy and natural gas development, including the efficient use of natural gas in the power and other sectors, strengthening and coordinating national energy planning for the gas sector, infrastructure development and prospects for decentralization of the natural gas market in Peru, and the potential of natural gas pricing reforms for the promotion of hydroelectricity and other renewable energy sources. This report is divided into five chapters. Chapter I describes the context in which this study was prepared. Chapter II presents a history of the natural gas sector and the Government of Peru s policy objectives to increase the use of natural gas in the domestic economy. Chapter III presents potential new markets for natural gas within the present context of the natural gas industry and the Peruvian economy. Chapter IV describes findings...

Regional Gas Trade Projects in Arab Countries, Volumes 1 and 2

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Mining/Oil and Gas; Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.55%
Arab countries hold about 29 percent of the world's proven gas reserves, but every country (except Qatar and Algeria) is short of the gas supply needed to meet its current and projected demand. The rapid growth in gas demand is mostly a consequence of a sharp increase in electricity consumption. Gas trade in the Arab world has been dominated by the objective of exporting gas in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to points in Asia, Europe, and North America. Gas trade within the region is limited to rather small volumes, moved from Algeria to Tunisia and Morocco; from Egypt to Jordan, Syria, and Lebanon; and from Qatar to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) - all through pipelines. The shortage of gas in the Arab countries has become more pronounced, justifying the higher gas prices needed to secure imported gas or to encourage domestic gas production. Such changes in the landscape provide an impetus for the Arab world to optimize the region's gas resources, at least partly on the basis of meeting growing regional demand. The objective of this study is to assist the attempt by: (i) identifying the opportunities for gas trade through cross-border gas pipelines and LNG; (ii) assessing the economic and political aspects of the identified projects; (iii) presenting financing and implementation schemes that utilize the synergy between the public and private sector in project formulation and development; and (iv) reviewing the legal...

Petroleum Fiscal Issues and Policies for Fluctuating Oil Prices in Vietnam

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: ESMAP Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.57%
The 1998 lowest level of international oil prices, triggered Viet Nam's request for technical assistance, to not only evaluate the petroleum fiscal system in comparison to other countries' competitiveness in international oil contracts' best practice, but also to evaluate options for flexible gas production contracts, including fiscal incentives for oil, and gas development of economically marginal fields. Since this report was prepared, in early 1999, oil prices have risen, and, the Petroleum Law was amended by mid 2000, hence, a later report will discuss revisions, and evaluate the total fiscal package. Nonetheless, the analyses reveal Viet Nam's contractual terms, concluding the country deals effectively with variations in economic conditions resulting from water depths; but ineffectively in dealing with field sizes, essentially creating the situation for small fields to remain uneconomic; moreover, it does not deal specifically with variations in economic conditions: actually it strongly discourages the development of fields with low-well productivity...

Global Economic Prospects : Commodity Markets Outlook, July 2014

Baffes, John
Fonte: World Bank Group, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank Group, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.57%
Geopolitical concerns in Iraq and Ukraine/Russia earlier in the year put upward pressure on oil prices during the second quarter. As tensions moderate, oil prices are expected to decline in 2015. Metal prices eased during the 2014Q2 due to supply response from earlier investments and weakening demand, especially by China. Weather concerns (often linked to likely El Niño) induced price increases in some grains earlier in the year but recently prices have weakened as supplies for the upcoming, 2014/15, season are deemed adequate to keep stocks at reasonable levels. Agricultural prices are expected to decline slightly in 2015. The key commodity price indices have been broadly stable during 2014Q2. Energy and agricultural prices increased 1 percent each, on geopolitical and weather-related concerns, respectively; while metal prices declined 1 percent on signs of Chinese demand weakness. The increase in beverage prices was driven by a rally in coffee prices due to dry weather in Brazil world's largest coffee supplier. Precious metal prices changed little while fertilizer prices declined 6.5 percent due to weakness in natural gas prices.

Vietnam - Gas Sector Development Framework : Final Report

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Other Environmental Study
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.55%
Vietnam's gas sector is at a critical point. Vietnam's gas industry, from the producing field to the end-user, is already a vital component of the nation's energy economy and has the potential for major growth. Successes in the past decade have created a strong prospective demand for gas. However, Vietnam has begun to experience gas shortages. If the gas sector is to meet the rising demand for gas, there are challenges that must be addressed promptly. If certain key decisions are not made soon, these gas shortages can be expected to worsen with potentially serious economic impacts. To achieve its stated objectives for developing national gas resources, Vietnam must seek to create a 'moving train' of projects that will convert gas resources into proven reserves and production. It must also stimulate investment in the development of the requisite pipeline infrastructure as well as incentivize investment in gas consuming loads downstream such as power plants. And this will require gas pricing in consuming sectors (particularly the electricity sector) to be appropriately linked with gas pricing in the upstream gas exploration and production sector. Much remains to be done if Vietnam is to realize the potential it sees in its gas resources. This report proposes a vision...

Mitigating Vulnerability to High and Volatile Oil Prices : Power Sector Experience in Latin America and the Caribbean

Yépez-Garcia, Rigoberto Ariel; Dana, Julie
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication; Publications & Research :: Publication
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.51%
Countries heavily dependent on imported oil to power a significant portion of their electricity generation are especially vulnerable to high and volatile oil prices. In net oil-importing countries worldwide, high and volatile oil prices ripple through the power sector to numerous segments of the economy. As prices move up and down, so does the cost of electricity production, which has far-reaching effects on the economy, fiscal and trade balances, businesses, and household living standards. High and volatile oil prices affect economies at both a macro and micro level. The major direct effects at the macro level are a deteriorating trade balance, through a higher import bill, reflecting a worsening in terms of trade; and a weakening fiscal balance due to greater government transfers and subsidies to insulate movements in international energy markets. At the micro level, investment uncertainty results from the higher risk of engaging in new projects and associated development and sunk costs, which, in turn, affects policy decisions and economic growth. This study responds to the needs of policy makers and energy planners in oil-importing countries to better manage exposure to oil price risk. The study's objective is threefold. First...

Planning for Higher Oil Prices : Power Sector Impact in Latin America and the Caribbean

Yépez-García, Rigoberto Ariel; San Vicente Portes, Luis; García, Luis Enrique
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Energy Study
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.63%
A scenario with higher oil prices has important implications for diverting from oil-based technologies to renewables, as well as gas, coal, and nuclear alternatives. By 2030, energy demand in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) is expected to double from 2008 levels. A key issue is deciding on the most appropriate mix of fuels for power generation, given the various prices of energy sources and technologies, as well as availability of renewable energy. The study's broad aim is to evaluate the impact of higher oil prices on the cost of generating electricity in countries of the LAC region so that better-informed energy policy planners can buffer future adverse effects. The study defines high oil prices as those above United States (U.S.) $100 per barrel. This price is considered a reasonable starting point for discussion given the recent range in oil prices, which averaged $95 a barrel in 2011. A price of $150 per barrel is defined as considerably high yet plausible given historical and current price levels...

Development of Competitive Natural Gas Markets in the United States

Juris, Andrej
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Viewpoint; Publications & Research
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.54%
The United States has the world's largest natural gas market. Fifteen years of deregulation have delivered significant gains to consumers in the form of lower prices and more services. The experience shows that liberalizing wholesale gas prices and the bulk supply of natural gas frees market forces in segments where competition is feasible. But regulators must focus on improving the regulation of pipeline transportation and minimizing its distortive effect on competitive gas markets. Introducing flexibility into pricing and other conditions of transportaion contracts such as delivery locations or the balancing of gas shipments and standardizing pipeline operations promote more efficient use of pipelines and benefit all industry participants. The U.S. experience also shows the important role of gas marketers and spot markets in increasing the efficiency of gas transactions and prices. Deregulation of the U.S. gas industry is far from complete, however. The most important task, and the biggest challenge for regulators...

Black Hole or Black Gold? The Impact of Oil and Gas Prices on Indonesia's Public Finances

Agustina, Cut Dian R.D.; Arze del Granado, Javier; Bulman, Tim; Fengler, Wolfgang; Ikhsan, Mohamad
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.61%
Indonesia's oil revenues and fuel subsidies dominate the nation's economic policy agenda. This paper estimates the impact of higher international oil prices on the Indonesian government's fiscal position in 2008 and beyond. It analyzes the interactions between government revenues and expenditures, as well as international oil prices, energy subsidies, and inter-governmental transfers. Looking at the impact of oil prices over US$100 per barrel, the paper presents five main findings. First, despite record high oil prices, the government's oil and gas revenues have been decreasing relative to non-oil and gas revenues since 2001. Second, fuel subsides will reach record levels in 2008 while electricity subsidies have been increasing even faster. Third, the paper finds that most of the fuel subsidy that directly benefits households goes to the richest 20 percent. Fourth, even at levels above US$100 per barrel, the government receives more revenues from oil and gas than it spends on energy subsidies. However...

Substitute Natural Gas Feasibility Study

Henward, Howard
Fonte: Universidade Duke Publicador: Universidade Duke
Tipo: Masters' project Formato: 1025474 bytes; application/pdf
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.52%
High natural gas prices and domestic energy security concerns have led to a resurgent interest in substitute natural gas (SNG). This technology, which dates back several decades, is currently only utilized in one location in the U.S., though perhaps a dozen more are on the drawing board. This study evaluates the economic climate for plants in the U.S. Major factors of SNG viability such as coal prices, gas prices, and construction costs, are examined to set the stage for the analysis. Current technology and policy is then used to evaluate SNG in the context of recent natural gas prices. Two major viewpoints were considered in this sensitivity analysis – the savings to the end user from locking in the contract price, and the returns to the developer of the plant. In order for an SNG plant to be built, both parties must have a reasonable certainty of economic benefit. The results indicated a marginal environment for the long-term contracts that are necessary to finance these plants. Consumer savings scenarios changed drastically during the 3-month period of this study. Initial projected savings of over 30% fell to a loss of 9%, far short of the minimum 25% estimated savings required. This was a result of a significant drop in gas prices...

An Assessment of the Potential Costs and Benefits to New Jersey from Shale Gas Extraction in Pennsylvania and an Examination of Cost Mitigation Strategies

Melillo, Jacqueline
Fonte: Universidade Duke Publicador: Universidade Duke
Tipo: Masters' Project
Publicado em 29/09/2011 EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.59%
Shale gas extraction in the United States has increased considerably over the last three years. President Obama and many Republican and Democratic members of Congress hail this increase as vital to energy security and a substantial step toward energy independence. Concurrently, numerous environmental organizations have voiced concerns about the effects shale gas extraction has on water resources and air quality. The Marcellus Shale, which underlies much of the Northeast, is a rock formation that has become a major source of shale gas. Pennsylvania, in particular, has seen shale gas extraction increase from 9,800,000 Mcf (thousand cubic feet) in 2008 to 271,800,000 Mcf in the six month period between July 2010 and December 2010, the latest time period for which data is available. Production in Pennsylvania is projected to increase even more in future years. New Jersey has no substantial shale gas plays, but it abuts the Marcellus Shale deposit, and is downwind (especially during the winter) and downstream from shale gas development in Pennsylvania. To date, no studies examining the economic and environmental benefits New Jersey will realize, or the environmental costs New Jersey will incur as a result of this shale gas extraction...

Electric Generation Investment in a Time of Natural Gas Price and Carbon Pricing Uncertainty: A Modeling Analysis

Fitzpatrick, Kristopher
Fonte: Universidade Duke Publicador: Universidade Duke
Tipo: Masters' project
Publicado em 16/04/2013 EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.47%
Low current and forecasted natural gas prices are spurring investment in new gas-fired electric generation in the eastern United States. In both regulated territories and organized electricity markets, natural gas power is beginning to displace significant amounts of retiring coal generation. However, the market price of natural gas has historically been volatile and unpredictable. If gas prices rise substantially from current forecasts in the next two decades, will customers face sharply higher electricity prices? What if a carbon tax accompanies this outcome? This modeling analysis sheds light on these questions by modeling long-term capacity expansion based on current assumptions, and then assessing how economic dispatch in three regions - the Southeast, PJM Interconnection, and ISO New England – will respond to alternate versions of future gas prices and carbon taxes. The results indicate that heavily gas-dependent regions like ISO New England would absorb the imposition of a carbon tax without major electricity price increases, but that it would face substantial price increases with sustained, elevated natural gas prices. The results also suggest that portfolios in the Southeast and PJM will skew more heavily to natural gas generation in the future if investment decisions are made under current conditions and assumptions. If this occurs...