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Rising Food Prices and Household Welfare : Evidence from Brazil in 2008

Ferreira, Francisco H.G.; Fruttero, Anna; Leite, Phillippe; Lucchetti, Leonardo
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.59%
Food price inflation in Brazil in the twelve months to June 2008 was 18 percent, while overall inflation was seven percent. Using spatially disaggregated monthly data on consumer prices and two different household surveys, we estimate the welfare consequences of these food price increases, and their distribution across households. Because Brazil is a large food producer, with a predominantly wage-earning agricultural labor force, our estimates include general equilibrium effects on market and transfer incomes, as well as the standard estimates of changes in consumer surplus. While the expenditure (or consumer surplus) effects were large, negative and markedly regressive everywhere, the market income effect was positive and progressive, particularly in rural areas. Because of this effect on the rural poor, and of the partial protection afforded by increases in two large social assistance benefits, the overall impact of higher food prices in Brazil was U-shaped, with middle-income groups suffering larger proportional losses than the very poor. Nevertheless...

Poverty Effects of Higher Food Prices : A Global Perspective

De Hoyos, Rafael E.; Medvedev, Denis
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.62%
The spike in food prices between 2005 and the first half of 2008 has highlighted the vulnerabilities of poor consumers to higher prices of agricultural goods and generated calls for massive policy action. This paper provides a formal assessment of the direct and indirect impacts of higher prices on global poverty using a representative sample of 63 to 93 percent of the population of the developing world. To assess the direct effects, the paper uses domestic food consumer price data between January 2005 and December 2007--when the relative price of food rose by an average of 5.6 percent --to find that the implied increase in the extreme poverty headcount at the global level is 1.7 percentage points, with significant regional variation. To take the second-order effects into account, the paper links household survey data with a global general equilibrium model, finding that a 5.5 percent increase in agricultural prices (due to rising demand for first-generation biofuels) could raise global poverty in 2010 by 0.6 percentage points at the extreme poverty line and 0.9 percentage points at the moderate poverty line. Poverty increases at the regional level vary substantially...

Inflation Dynamics and Food Prices in an Agricultural Economy : The Case of Ethiopia

Loening, Josef L.; Durevall, Dick; Birru, Yohannes A.
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.6%
Ethiopia has experienced a historically unprecedented increase in inflation, mainly driven by cereal price inflation, which is among the highest in Sub-Saharan Africa. Using monthly data from the past decade, the authors estimate error correction models to identify the relative importance of several factors contributing to overall inflation and its three major components, cereal prices, food prices, and non-food prices. The main finding is that, in a longer perspective, over three to four years, the main factors that determine domestic food and non-food prices are the exchange rate and international food and goods prices. In the short run, agricultural supply shocks and inflation inertia strongly affect domestic inflation, causing large deviations from long-run price trends. Money supply growth does affect food price inflation in the short run, although the money stock itself does not seem to drive inflation. The results suggest the need for a multi-pronged approach to fight inflation. Forecast scenarios suggest monetary and exchange rate policies need to take into account cereal production...

Higher Food Prices in Sub-Saharan Africa

Wodon, Quentin; Zaman, Hassan
Fonte: World Bank Publicador: World Bank
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.57%
The spike in global food prices in 2008 led to significantly higher food prices across the developing world. Global commodity prices have since fallen but remain volatile, and local food prices remain high in many countries. The authors review the evidence on the potential impact of higher food prices on poverty, focusing on Sub-Saharan Africa, and examine the extent to which policy responses are able to protect the poor. They show that rising food prices are likely to lead to higher poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa as the negative impact on net consumers outweighs the benefits to producers. A recent survey shows that the most common policy response in Sub-Saharan African countries in 2008 was reducing taxes on food, while outside the region subsidies were the most popular measure. Sub-Saharan African countries also have a higher prevalence of food-based safety net programs, some of which were scaled up to respond to rising prices. The review suggests that the benefits from reducing import tariffs on staples are likely to accrue largely to the nonpoor. Safety net programs can be more effective, but geographic targeting and other investments to strengthen safety nets are necessary to ensure that fewer people are affected by future crises.

World Food Prices and Human Development: Policy Simulations for Archetype Low-Income Countries

Lofgren, Hans
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.62%
In recent years, world food prices have increased and fluctuated widely. This paper explores the impact of international food prices and domestic policies on Millennium Development Goal (MDG) and macro indicators for two archetype low-income countries, a net food exporter and a net food importer, using Maquette for MDG Simulations (MAMS), a Computable General Equilibrium model. The simulations, which cover the period 2011-2025, indicate that the size of positive (negative) effects on macro and MDG indicators of a food export (import) price increase depend on the initial gross domestic product share for food exports (imports), leaving countries that are heavily involved in international food trade more exposed to international shocks. Given relatively low elasticity estimates, the impact of changes in food prices on undernourishment are relatively marginal. Flexible responses (in terms of production shares, whether output is exported or sold at home, and whether domestic demanders buy imports or domestic output) enable countries to benefit from or be less hurt by price changes. The case for policy responses to higher import prices is stronger for the net food importer. An untargeted food subsidy...

Implications of Higher Global Food Prices for Poverty in Low-Income Countries

Ivanic, Maros; Martin, Will
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.6%
In many poor countries, the recent increases in prices of staple foods raise the real incomes of those selling food, many of whom are relatively poor, while hurting net food consumers, many of whom are also relatively poor. The impacts on poverty will certainly be very diverse, but the average impact on poverty depends upon the balance between these two effects, and can only be determined by looking at real-world data. Results using household data for ten observations on nine low-income countries show that the short-run impacts of higher staple food prices on poverty differ considerably by commodity and by country, but, that poverty increases are much more frequent, and larger, than poverty reductions. The recent large increases in food prices appear likely to raise overall poverty in low income countries substantially.

Are Low Food Prices Pro-Poor? Net Food Buyers and Sellers in Low-Income Countries

Aksoy, M. Ataman; Isik-Dikmelik, Aylin
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.49%
There is a general consensus that most of the poor in developing countries are net food buyers and food price increases are bad for the poor. This could be expected of urban poor, but it is also often attributed to the rural poor. Recent food price increases have increased the importance of this issue, and the possible policy responses to these price increases. This paper examines the characteristics of net food sellers and buyers in nine low-income countries. Although the largest share of poor households are found to be net food buyers, almost 50 percent of net food buyers are marginal net food buyers who would not be significantly affected by food price increases. Only three of the nine countries examined exhibited a substantial proportion of vulnerable households. The average incomes (as measured by expenditure) of net food buyers were found to be higher than net food sellers in eight of the nine countries examined. Thus, food price increases, ceteris paribus, would transfer income from generally higher income net food buyers to poorer net food sellers. The analysis also finds that the occupations and income sources of net sellers and buyers in rural areas are significantly different. In rural areas where food production is the main activity and where there are limited non-food activities...

A Note on Rising Food Prices

Mitchell, Donald
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.65%
The rapid rise in food prices has been a burden on the poor in developing countries, who spend roughly half of their household incomes on food. This paper examines the factors behind the rapid increase in internationally traded food prices since 2002 and estimates the contribution of various factors such as the increased production of biofuels from food grains and oilseeds, the weak dollar, and the increase in food production costs due to higher energy prices. It concludes that the most important factor was the large increase in biofuels production in the U.S. and the EU. Without these increases, global wheat and maize stocks would not have declined appreciably, oilseed prices would not have tripled, and price increases due to other factors, such as droughts, would have been more moderate. Recent export bans and speculative activities would probably not have occurred because they were largely responses to rising prices. While it is difficult to compare the results of this study with those of other studies due to differences in methodologies...

Assessing the Geographic Impact of Higher Food Prices in Guinea

Coulombe, Harold; Wodon, Quentin
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.5%
Telling a policy maker that poverty will increase due to the recent increase in food prices is not very useful; telling the policy makers where the impact is likely to be larger is better, so that measures to cope with the impact of the crisis can be targeted to areas that need them the most. This paper shows how to use poverty mapping techniques to assess where higher food prices are likely to hurt the most using Guinea census and survey data as a case study. The results suggest that in the case of a rice price increase, the poorest areas of the country will not be the hardest hit, especially if the potential positive impact of higher food prices on rice producers is taken into account, in which case poverty may decline in some of these areas even if for the country as a whole poverty will increase significantly due to the large share of rice in the household consumption budget.

Potential Impact of Higher Food Prices on Poverty : Summary Estimates for a Dozen West and Central African Countries

Wodon, Quentin; Tsimpo, Clarence; Backiny-Yetna, Prospere; Joseph, George; Adoho, Franck; Coulombe, Harold
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.59%
Concerns have been raised about the impact of rising food prices worldwide on the poor. To assess the impact of rising food prices in any particular country it is necessary to look at both the impact on food producers who are poor or near-poor and could benefit from an increase in prices and food consumers who are poor or near-poor and would loose out when the price increases. In most West and Central African countries, the sign (positive or negative) of the impact is not ambiguous because a substantial share of food consumption is imported, so that the negative impact for consumers is larger than the positive impact for net sellers of locally produced foods. Yet even if the sign of the impact is clear, its magnitude is not. Using a set of recent and comprehensive household surveys, this paper summarizes findings from an assessment of the potential impact of higher food prices on the poor in a dozen countries. Rising food prices for rice, wheat, maize, and other cereals as well as for milk, sugar and vegetable oils could lead to a substantial increase in poverty in many of the countries. At the same time...

Responding to Higher and More Volatile World Food Prices

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.66%
Following the world food price spike in 2008 and again in 2011, there has been increased attention on better understanding the drivers of food prices, their impacts on the poor, and policy response options. This paper provides a simple model that closely simulates actual historical food price behavior around which the analysis of the drivers of food price levels, volatility, and the associated response options is derived. Future food prices are likely to remain higher than pre-2007 levels and recent price uncertainty is likely to continue for the foreseeable future. Accelerated use of food crops for industrial purposes (biofuels) continues to offset the slowing population growth effect on food demand. World food stocks remain at relatively low levels where the likelihood of price spikes is higher. Production gains may be harder to achieve in the future than in the past, with more limited space for area expansion, declining yield growth, and increases in weather variability. Suggested responses to reduce average food price levels are to (i) raise food crop yields...

Long-Term Drivers of Food Prices

Baffes, John; Dennis, Allen
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.62%
It is becoming increasingly apparent that the post-2004, across-the-board, commodity price increases, which initially appeared to be a spike similar to the ones experienced during the early 1950s (Korean War) and the 1970s (oil crises), have a more permanent character. From 1997-2004 to 2005-12 nominal prices of energy, fertilizers, and precious metals tripled, metal prices went up by more than 150 percent, and most food prices doubled. Such price increases, especially in food commodities, not only fueled a debate on their key causes, but also alarmed government officials, leading to calls for coordinated policy actions. This paper examines the relative contribution of various sector and macroeconomic drivers to price changes of five food commodities (maize, wheat, rice, soybeans, and palm oil) by applying a reduced-form econometric model on 1960-2012 annual data. The drivers include stock-to-use ratios, crude oil and manufacturing prices, the United States dollar exchange rate, interest rate, and income. Based on long-run elasticity estimates (approximately -0.25 for the stock-to-use ratios...

Rising Food Prices in East Asia : Challenges and Policy Options

Brahmbhatt, Milan; Christiaensen, Luc
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.62%
Large increases in international food prices in 2007 and early 2008 have become a key concern for policy makers in East Asia. The increases are likely to have a significant impact on the living standards of many, particularly the poor. By March 2008, dollar nominated world food prices were more than two and a half times higher than in early 2002. Almost three quarters of this increase occurred since the start of 2007, and about half since the beginning of 2008. Recent sharp increases in international rice prices are of particular concern in East Asia. Food comprises 30 to 50 percent of the consumption basket of the average household in East Asia (compared to 15 percent in the United States). Within that, rice accounts for one third of the daily caloric intake, followed by wheat (12.4 percent), pork (8.8 percent), corn (4.4 percent), soybean and palm oil (3.4 percent and 1.8 percent respectively). This note examines the reasons for the surge in world food prices, in particular of rice in section two. It reviews the economic and poverty impacts of rising food prices in East Asian countries in section three. Finally...

Logistics, Transport and Food Prices in LAC : Policy Guidance for Improving Efficiency and Reducing Costs

Schwartz, Jordan; Guasch, Jose Luis; Wilmsmeier, Gordon; Stokenberga, Aiga
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.44%
This introductory section explains the rationale for the guidance note, reflecting on the relevance of food prices in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), their impact on the poor and the effect that logistics and transport costs have on those prices. Based upon that framework, the note provides an overview of the logistics and transport hurdles faced by importers and consumers in the region as food products move through the logistics chain. The final section of the report provides some policy guidance that could improve the efficiency of logistics systems in LAC and reduce the price of delivered foods.

Integrating climate change and health into food policy: An analysis of how climate change can affect food prices and population health

Friel, Sharon; Bradbear, Catherine
Fonte: Elsevier Publicador: Elsevier
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: 11 pages
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.57%
The inter-related nature of food, health and climate change requires a better understanding of the linkages and a greater alignment of policy across these issues to be able to adequately meet the pressing social and health challenges arising from climate change. Food price is one way through which climate change may affect health. The aim of this study of the global and Australian food systems is to provide a whole-of-system analysis of food price vulnerabilities, highlighting the key pressure points across the food system through which climate change could potentially have the greatest impact on consumer food prices and the implications for population health. We outline areas where there are particular vulnerabilities for food systems and food prices arising from climate change, particularly global commodity prices; agricultural productivity; short term supply shocks; and less direct factors such as input costs and government policies. We use Australia as a high-income country case study to consider these issues in more detail. The complex and dynamic nature of pricing mechanisms makes it difficult to predict precisely how prices will be impacted. Should prices rise disproportionately among healthy foodstuffs compared to less healthy foods there may be adverse health outcomes if less expensive and less healthy foods are substituted. Higher prices will also have equity implications with lower socio-economic groups most impacted given these households currently spend proportionately more of their weekly income on food. The ultimate objective of this research is to identify the pathways through the food system via which climate change may affect food prices and ultimately population health...

Estimating the Short-Run Poverty Impacts of the 2010–11 Surge in Food Prices

Ivanic, Maros; Martin, Will; Zaman, Hassan
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.59%
Global food prices have increased substantially since mid-2010, as have prices in many developing countries. In this study we assess the poverty impact of the price changes between June and December 2010 in twenty-eight low and middle income countries. This is done by gathering detailed information on individual households' food production and consumption levels for thirty-eight agricultural and food commodities to assess the impacts on household welfare. This study estimates that this sudden food price surge increased the number of poor people globally, but with considerably different impacts in different countries. The heterogeneity of these impacts is partly related to the wide variation in the transmission of global prices to local prices and partly to differences in households' patterns of production and consumption. On balance, the adverse welfare impact on net buyers outweighs the benefits to net sellers resulting in an increase in the number of poor and in the depth of poverty. We estimate that the average poverty change was 1.1 percentage points in low income countries and 0.7 percentage points in middle income countries with a net increase of 44 million people falling below the $1.25 per day extreme poverty line.

Food Prices, Wages, and Welfare in Rural India

Jacoby, Hanan G.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, D.C. Publicador: World Bank, Washington, D.C.
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.54%
This paper considers the welfare and distributional consequences of higher relative food prices in rural India through the lens of a specific-factors, general equilibrium, trade model applied at the district level. The evidence shows that nominal wages for manual labor both within and outside agriculture respond elastically to increases in producer prices; that is, wages rose faster in rural districts growing more of those crops with large price run-ups over 2004-09. Accounting for such wage gains, the analysis finds that rural households across the income spectrum benefit from higher agricultural commodity prices. Indeed, rural wage adjustment appears to play a much greater role in protecting the welfare of the poor than the Public Distribution System, India's giant food-rationing scheme. Moreover, policies, like agricultural export bans, which insulate producers (as well as consumers) from international price increases, are particularly harmful to the poor of rural India. Conventional welfare analyses that assume fixed wages and focus on households' net sales position lead to radically different conclusions.

High Food Prices, Latin American and the Caribbean Responses to a New Normal; El alto precio de los alimentos, respuestas de ALC a una nueva normalidad

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.59%
Yet the current situation differs from 2007-2008 in critical respects. First, recent international price increases are more widespread across agricultural commodities than in 2008, when price spikes were led by few grains such as wheat and rice. Second, natural resources are affecting food production: land and water constraints are more binding than in the past and weather induced production shortfalls are more of a factor now than it was 2008. Climate change also adds to this uncertainty, particularly since a larger share of grain exports are being produced in areas more exposed to climate variability. Third, long term structural changes in the markets are more clearly a major factor this time, as demand for feed and income-elastic foods under sustained and widespread income growth in emerging countries is increasing steadily. Fourth, the global stocks/use ratio for major cereals, which used to hover in the range of 30-35 percent in the 1980s and 1990s, has been around 20 percent after 2003 due largely to long-term policy changes in high-income countries; and stocks of some critical players are now at all-time lows. Global markets are currently experiencing the second sharp spike in food prices in the last four years. While no one has a crystal ball to predict with confidence the future prices of food products...

Higher Fuel and Food Prices : Impacts and Responses for Mozambique

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Policy Note; Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.63%
The dramatic increases in world food and fuel prices during 2007 and early 2008 may set back Mozambique's considerable advances in poverty reduction during the past decade. This study assesses the impact of higher fuel and food prices at both household and macroeconomic levels, and also considers policy options to mitigate some of the negative impacts of higher prices. Rising world prices certainly represents a negative terms-of-trade shock for Mozambique, since the country imports almost all of its fuel and is a net importer of food. The report is structured in six sections. Section two presents information on the extent of international food and fuel price increases and their transmission to local markets in Mozambique. Section three presents household-level analysis focused on the first order impact of the food price increases. Section four complements previous sections by examining the impact of higher food and fuel prices within a general equilibrium framework. Section five discusses the likely impact of alternative policy options in the short and long term. Section six summarizes and concludes.

Rising Food Prices in Sub-Saharan Africa : Poverty Impact and Policy Responses

Wodon, Quentin; Zaman, Hassan
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.61%
The increase in food prices represents a major crisis for the world's poor. This paper aims to review the evidence on the potential impact of higher food prices on poverty in sub-Saharan Africa, and examines the extent to which policy responses will benefit the poor. The paper shows that rising food prices are likely to lead to higher poverty in sub-Saharan Africa as the negative impact on net poor consumers outweighs the benefits to poor producers. A recent survey shows that the most common policy response in sub-Saharan African countries is reducing taxes on food while outside the region price controls or targeted consumer subsidies are the most popular measure. Sub-Saharan African countries also have a higher prevalence of food-based safety net programs which are being scaled up to respond to rising prices. The review suggests that the benefits from reducing import tariffs on staples may accrue largely to the non-poor. Social protection programs show more promise, but geographic targeting is likely to be crucial in ensuring that benefits reach the neediest. The paper also argues that anti-poverty interventions ought to retain their focus on rural areas where poverty remains highest even after taking into account the adverse impact on the urban poor due to the rise in food prices.