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Financial and Fiscal Instruments for Catastrophe Risk Management : Addressing Losses From Flood Hazards In Central Europe (Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia)

Pollner, John D.
Fonte: World Bank Publicador: World Bank
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.51%
This report addresses the large flood exposures of Central Europe and proposes efficient financial and risk transfer mechanisms to mitigate fiscal losses from natural catastrophes.. The report is primarily addressed to the governments of the region which should build into their fiscal planning, the necessary contingent funding mechanisms, based on their exposures. While there exist pan-European mechanisms such as the EU Solidarity Fund to help EU members fund mega disasters, these only kick in at extremely high loss levels. Given these issues, the Governments of the V-4 countries should consider it a priority to set up risk transfer mechanisms to reduce fiscal volatility following natural catastrophes. The private sector insurance markets in the V-4 countries appear adequate and reflect rather high levels of penetration in the economy and in the housing sector. Economic and fiscal analyses based on global data also show that countries with insurance mechanisms and markets show a stronger GDP recovery path and lower fiscal deficits following a disaster. However...

Laws for Fiscal Responsibility for Subnational Discipline : International Experience

Liu, Lili; Webb, Steven B.
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.65%
Fiscal responsibility laws are institutions with which multiple governments in the same economy -- national and subnational --can commit to help avoid irresponsible fiscal behavior that could have short-term advantages to one of them but that would be collectively damaging. Coordination failures with subnational governments in the 1990s contributed to macroeconomic instability and led several countries to adopt fiscal responsibility laws as part of the remedy. The paper analyzes the characteristics and effects of fiscal responsibility laws in seven countries -- Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Colombia, India, and Peru. Fiscal responsibility laws are designed to address the short time horizons of policymakers, free riders among government units, and principal agent problems between the national and subnational governments. The paper describes how the laws differ in the specificity of quantitative targets, the strength of sanctions, the methods for increasing transparency, and the level of government passing the law. Evidence shows that fiscal responsibility laws can help coordinate and sustain commitments to fiscal prudence...

Fiscal Adjustment and Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa : Overview and Lessons from the Current Downturn

Fofack, Hippolyte
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.74%
In light of the proliferation of exceptionally large fiscal stimuli to ward off the recession triggered by the 2008 global economic and financial crisis in most advanced economies, this paper revisits the fiscal adjustment and growth nexus in Sub-Saharan Africa. Using transfer functions, it quantifies expected losses in terms of aggregate output largely attributed to a systematic implementation of pro-cyclical expenditure switching and reducing policies to achieve low deficit targets throughout the decades of adjustments. The results consistently highlight a much higher predicted aggregate output under the hypothesized counter-cyclical fiscal expansion option. This consistent outcome suggests that the output gap would have been significantly smaller in the region if countries had drawn on stop-and-go policies of fiscal expansion to sustainably raise the stock of capital investments.

How Should Fiscal Policy Respond to the Economic Crisis in the Low Income Commonwealth of Independent States? Some pointers from Tajikistan

Brownbridge, Martin; Canagarajah, Sudharshan
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.59%
The paper analyses how the global economic crisis will affect the economies of the low income Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and discusses the fiscal measures which can be taken to help mitigate the adverse impact of the crisis. It focuses on Tajikistan, the poorest member of the CIS but also highlights similarities with the economies of Armenia, the Kyrgyz Republic and Moldova. The main channels through which the global economic crisis will affect the low income CIS economies is through a sharp reduction in remittances from migrant workers in Russia and lower export earnings. The adjustment to this external shock will involve a reduction in imports, private consumption, domestic output and government revenue. Fiscal policy, constrained by very limited macroeconomic and fiscal space, faces acute challenges. Maintaining budget targets for fiscal deficits and domestic borrowing in the face of revenue shortfalls will lead to a tightening of the fiscal stance, exacerbating recessionary pressures and making it very difficult to protect priority social expenditures from cuts. To avoid these outcomes...

The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Financial Crises

Reinhart, Carmen M.
Fonte: World Bank Publicador: World Bank
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.42%
The Ds: Sharp economic downturns follow banking crises; with government revenues falling, fiscal deficits worsen; deficits lead to debt; as debts pile up rating downgrades follow. For the most fortunate countries it does not end in default.

Global Fiscal Adjustment and Trade Rebalancing : Global Fiscal Adjustment and Trade Rebalancing

McKibbin, Warwick J.; Stoeckel, Andrew B.; Lu, YingYing
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.66%
The emergence of substantial fiscal deficits and a large build up of government debt in major advanced economies will inevitably lead to a period of fiscal consolidation in coming years. In an earlier paper, McKibbin and Stoeckel (2010) explored the effects of this fiscal adjustment in advanced economies on the global economic outlook. This paper focuses on the differences between the impacts of fiscal policy in advanced versus emerging economies. In particular, the need for more fiscal spending on infrastructure in emerging economies and the need for fiscal consolidation in advanced economies leads naturally to the question of what this asymmetric fiscal adjustment might do to global trade balances as well as global economic growth over the coming decades. The adjustment needed in both regions is substantial and the asymmetry of the adjustment implies important consequences for trade and capital flows between regions as well as asset price adjustments within and between regions.

Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan : Options for Immediate Fiscal Adjustment and Longer Term Consolidation

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.64%
This report aims to provide options for immediate fiscal adjustment to the government of Jordan and to set the foundations for longer term consolidation. To that effect, an analysis of the dynamics of revenues and expenditures over the years 2000-2011 is undertaken. Specifically, this report attempts to provide options to stop and reverse the declining trend in revenues observed since 2007. Indeed, domestic revenues declined by 9.4 percentage points of GDP between 2007 and 2011. This steady and structural decline in revenues increased the vulnerability of Jordan s public finances to any exogenous shock. Hence, the strong fiscal stress at the eve of the Arab Awakening, due to the pressures to finance widening power sector deficit following the disruption of Egyptian gas supply, and to meet popular demand for additional spending and subsidies. The report also examines: 1) potential sources of savings from current and capital spending, 2) scenarios to reduce power sector deficit including tariff simulations...

Macroeconomic Context and Fiscal Policy Design : Europe and Central Asia during 2000–2012

Islam, Roumeen
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, D.C. Publicador: World Bank, Washington, D.C.
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.66%
This paper examines the interaction between fiscal policy and the broader macroeconomic context in open economies. It asks two questions. First, what was the relationship between fiscal policy and current account balances in countries in Europe and Central Asia during the past dozen years? Second, how might changes in (a) output composition and (b) financial sector profitability affect revenues and thus, the assessment of the underlying structural fiscal balance? The study finds that, for flexible exchange rate countries, expansionary fiscal policy has been associated with wider current account deficits. Moreover, changes in net exports and in financial sector profitability may have significant impacts on fiscal balances because of changes in revenues from the value-added tax and the corporate profits tax as a share of gross domestic product. These findings suggest that the countries of Europe and Central Asia have reason to be prudent in terms of fiscal policy choices, even as gross domestic product rises.

Public Expenditures for Decentralized Governance in Honduras : Towards Restoring Fiscal Consolidation

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.51%
Fiscal consolidation remains the central challenge facing Honduras, mainly due to increasing current expenditures. The widening fiscal deficit has been driven by a significant increase in current expenditures. These increased current expenditures, which add rigidity to the budget, have occurred at the expense of investments. The efficiency of spending remains a key constraint. Limited improvements, especially in health and education outcomes despite high allocations to these sectors, suggest the need to improve the efficiency and quality of expenditures. Increased public expenditures have not delivered in terms of growth and improved public services, and whether the country is ready for decentralization remains an open question. Growing fiscal deficits and weak public financial management practices have constrained the ability of the central government to implement and finance the decentralization process. Current decentralization targets would pose significant fiscal challenges to the central government. The deterioration of the fiscal deficit is not a result of fiscal decentralization. However...

Honduras Public Expenditure Review : Towards Restoring Fiscal Consolidation

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.51%
Fiscal consolidation remains the central challenge facing Honduras, mainly due to increasing current expenditures. The widening fiscal deficit has been driven by a significant increase in current expenditures. These increased current expenditures, which add rigidity to the budget, have occurred at the expense of investments. The efficiency of spending remains a key constraint. Limited improvements, especially in health and education outcomes despite high allocations to these sectors, suggest the need to improve the efficiency and quality of expenditures. Increased public expenditures have not delivered in terms of growth and improved public services, and whether the country is ready for decentralization remains an open question. Growing fiscal deficits and weak public financial management practices have constrained the ability of the central government to implement and finance the decentralization process. Current decentralization targets would pose significant fiscal challenges to the central government. The deterioration of the fiscal deficit is not a result of fiscal decentralization. However...

Serbia Public Finance Review

World Bank Group
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Relatório
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.64%
Since the global economic and financial crisis of 2008, Serbia has struggled with a weak economy and a deteriorating fiscal position. Until 2008, fiscal deficits were moderate and public debt declined significantly. Since the start of the global economic and financial crisis in 2008, however, Serbia has struggled with the interlinked problems of minimal growth and unfavorable fiscal dynamics. As economic activity has stagnated, revenues have fallen and expenditures, particularly mandatory spending on pensions and wages, have remained high. At the same time, structural fiscal issues, such as continued state support to state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and tax administration inefficiencies, have been a drag on growth. As a result of these pressures, general government fiscal deficits averaged 5.6 percent of GDP a year between 2009 and 2014. Reflecting the high fiscal deficits and poor economic growth, Serbia’s public debt has more than doubled, from 34 percent of GDP in 2008 to 71 percent at yearend-2014. The objective of this report is therefore two-fold: (i) policy options and recommendations (beyond those built into the current program) that would help solidify the ongoing fiscal consolidation program and help achieve public debt sustainability over the medium term; and (ii) given near-term fiscal constraints...

Fiscal rules and targets and public expenditure management: enthusiasm in the 1990s and its aftermath

Tanaka, Hideaki
Fonte: Universidade Nacional da Austrália Publicador: Universidade Nacional da Austrália
Tipo: Working/Technical Paper Formato: 491691 bytes; 352 bytes; application/pdf; application/octet-stream
EN_AU
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.56%
The 1990s saw an era of fiscal consolidation in industrialised countries, which struggled with fiscal deficits throughout the 1970s and 1980s. Reforms in public expenditure management, typically the introduction of fiscal rules and targets, together with favourable economic growth contributed to a significant improvement in fiscal positions. However, fiscal deficits have been increasing again since the turn of the 21st century in many OECD countries. Interestingly, some countries have been able to maintain fiscal discipline since the achievement of fiscal balance in the latter half of the 1990s. What has caused this difference? This paper derives important lessons for reform in public expenditure management from the experiences of major OECD countries’, including Australia, France, Germany, Japan, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Sweden, the UK and the USA. Essentially, success in maintaining fiscal discipline lies in maintaining a firm political commitment, and strengthening expenditure management that underpins any such commitment, specifically a medium-term fiscal plan in line with fiscal rules and targets in a centralised and transparent manner. Public expenditure management reform is a cornerstone of the restructuring of public sector services...

State Fiscal Reforms in India : Progress and Prospects

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Debt and Creditworthiness Study; Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.63%
Following two decades of relatively rapid growth, and a decade of liberalization, there is growing confidence within India, as well as internationally, about the state of the economy, and India's development potential. Nonetheless, and particularly since the late nineties, when India's states experienced a sharp fiscal deterioration, they have faced a squeeze on development spending, particularly acute in the poorer ones. In response, most state governments embarked on fiscal reforms, aimed at reducing deficits, and enabling effective interventions in priority areas. States in India play an increasingly important role in devising, and implementing policies to stimulate economic growth, and promote human development. But the performance of India's states is increasingly divergent, State deficits and debt levels rose sharply in the late nineties, and off-budget liabilities also increased rapidly. This sharp fiscal deterioration gave rise to state-level fiscal adjustment efforts, which in recent years have shown some signs of improved fiscal performance. Concerns about the level...

Fiscal Deficits, Monetary Reform, and Inflation Stabilization in Romania

Budina, Nina; van Wijnbergen, Sweder
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Working Paper; Publications & Research; Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.66%
Unsustainable fiscal deficits were the chief reason for the inflation that has persisted in Eastern Europe since 1989. Deficits need to be cut back, but by how much for a given inflation target? The authors develop a simple framework for debt, the deficit, and inflation to study the interactions between fiscal and monetary policy in Romania's economy. This framework can be used to 1) determine the financeable deficit and the required deficit reduction for a given rate of output growth, inflation rate, and target for debt-output ratios, and 2) find the rate, and target for which no fiscal adjustment is needed. They use this framework to assess consistency between inflation, monetary reform, and fiscal policy in Romania. Many of the issues in Romania are similar to those in other countries. But Romania is an interesting case because of its history of unsuccessful stabilization attempts. The authors' results suggest that fiscal problems during 1992-94 were masked by shifting government expenses to the books of the National Bank of Romania so that the government deficit did not fully reflect public spending. In addition...

India : Why Fiscal Adjustment Now

Pinto, Brian; Zahir, Farah
Fonte: World Bank: Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank: Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.5%
India's growth performance has been impressive over the last two decades. But its sustainability has been in question, first with the 1991 fiscal-balance of payments crisis (BoP), and then again after 1997/98, when fiscal deficits returned to the 10 percent of GDP range and government debt grew. This paper analyzes the deterioration in India's public finances and presents evidence suggesting that, in the absence of a fiscal adjustment, low inflation and high reserves may have been pursued at the expense of long-run growth and poverty reduction. Resolving this inflation-external vulnerability-growth policy trilemma requires fiscal adjustment. In making its case, the paper shows, first, that fiscal fundamentals have weakened after 1997/98 even when compared with the pre-1991 crisis period. This has continued in spite of the recent record lows in interest rates. Second, the fiscal stance is not conducive to long-run growth and poverty reduction because capital spending has been cut to accommodate higher interest payments and other current spending...

Republic of Armenia - Fiscal Consolidation and Recovery : Synthesis Report

World Bank
Fonte: World Bank Publicador: World Bank
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Other Public Sector Study
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.68%
Armenia's structural reforms since 1999 have led to a strong economic record, including low fiscal deficits and declining public debt over the pre-crisis decade. Between 2001 and 2008 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at an average annual rate of 12 percent and poverty fell from over 50 percent to about 28 percent of the population. Over this period of rapid growth, prudent fiscal management contained fiscal deficits between 0 and 2.5 percent of GDP and helped to reduce public debt from 49 percent to 16 percent of GDP. This fiscal headroom allowed the Government to respond to the crisis with an appropriately large fiscal stimulus. When GDP contracted by more than 14 percent in 2009 and total revenues fell sharply, nominal public spending was increased by 13 percent to shore up the domestic economy and protect the poor and vulnerable. Despite the severity of the crisis, the Government maintained a sound macroeconomic framework while continuing to undertake social protection expenditures to mitigate the impact of the crisis on the most vulnerable people. This was done by securing sizable external financing. The fiscal deficit rose to 7.8 percent of GDP in 2009 and the public debt to GDP ratio rose from 16 percent in 2008 to 40.2 percent. Efforts at fiscal consolidation reduced the fiscal deficit to 5.6 percent of GDP in 2010...

Quasi-Fiscal Activities, Hidden Government Subsidies, and Fiscal Adjustment in Armenia

Freinkman, Lev; Gyulumyan, Gohar; Kyurumyan, Artak
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication; Publications & Research :: Publication
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.71%
This paper aims to develop a detailed analysis of quasi-fiscal deficits and subsidies, and their impact on Armenia's fiscal performance in the second part of the 1990s. Based on the flow-of-funds approach, we estimate the magnitude of the quasi-fiscal deficits and the incidence of quasi-fiscal subsidies in Armenia, as well as identify main recipients and sources of quasi-fiscal financing. The principal finding of the paper is that while quasi-fiscal deficits in Armenia remain considerable, their recent decline has been a major contributing factor to Armenia's fiscal adjustment. The paper also shows that households remain a major ultimate recipient of quasi-fiscal subsidies. Thus, the main distortive impact of quasi-fiscal subsidies is on social policy and equity, rather than on enterprise restructuring and private sector performance. Still, the current level of public sector deficit in Armenia remains too high, which requires an additional adjustment effort. The paper suggests that to make fiscal adjustment sustainable a further strengthening of financial control...

Federal Politics and Budget Deficits : Evidence from the States of India

Khemani, Stuti
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.72%
This paper tests two predictions implied by models of the common-pool game in federations where subnational governments are more likely to have higher deficits because they do not internalize the macroeconomic effects of fiscal profligacy. The first is that subnational governments that belong to the same political party as the central government have lower spending and deficits because they are more likely to be influenced to internalize the macroeconomic effects of additional local spending; and the second is that subnational governments that are more dependent on intergovernmental transfers have higher spending and deficits. We find that in 15 major states of India over the period 1972-1995, states in fact have substantially higher spending and deficits (higher by about 10 percent of the sample average) when their government belongs to the same party as that governing at the center; and that intergovernmental grants tend to have a counter-intuitive negative effect on spending and deficits. The additional deficit of affiliated states is financed almost entirely by additional loans from the central government (as opposed to the market) leading to our interpretation that similar political considerations influence the distribution of deficits across states as they do other intergovernmental grants. We argue that the evidence from India...

The impact of politics on fiscal behavior: the case of Brazil

Baer,Werner; Coes,Donald V.
Fonte: Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade de Ribeirão Preto da Universidade de São Paulo Publicador: Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade de Ribeirão Preto da Universidade de São Paulo
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: text/html
Publicado em 01/03/2006 EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.28%
This paper examines the proposition that a government which faces an election or depends on general popular support to govern effectively will find it difficult to resist increasing expenditures or to raise taxes. The resulting fiscal deficits are then either financed by the central bank, which produces inflation, or by domestic and/or foreign borrowing, increasing the government's foreign or domestic debt. After a brief historical survey of Brazil, a method is use to test the validity of this hypothesis in a more formal way.

The impact of politics on fiscal behavior: the case of Brazil

Baer, Werner; Coes, Donald V.
Fonte: Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade de RP Publicador: Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade de RP
Tipo: info:eu-repo/semantics/article; info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion; ; ; Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 01/03/2006 ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.42%
Este artigo examina a proposição de que um governo que está enfrentando uma eleição ou que depende de um apoio popular para governar terá dificuldade de resistir ao aumento de gastos ou de aumentar os impostos. Os conseqüentes déficits fiscais podem ser financiados pelo Banco Central, o que resulta em inflação, ou pelos empréstimos domésticos e/ou estrangeiros, aumentando a dívida doméstica ou estrangeira. Depois de um curto resumo histórico da experiência brasileira, um método quantitativo está sendo utilizado para testar a validade desta hipótese de uma maneira mais formal.; This paper examines the proposition that a government which faces an election or depends on general popular support to govern effectively will find it difficult to resist increasing expenditures or to raise taxes. The resulting fiscal deficits are then either financed by the central bank, which produces inflation, or by domestic and/or foreign borrowing, increasing the government's foreign or domestic debt. After a brief historical survey of Brazil, a method is use to test the validity of this hypothesis in a more formal way.