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O projeto de integração europeu e a crise da zona do euro (2007-2013); The european integration project and the euro zone crisis (2007-2013)

Nicholas Magnus Deleuse Blikstad
Fonte: Biblioteca Digital da Unicamp Publicador: Biblioteca Digital da Unicamp
Tipo: Dissertação de Mestrado Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 24/02/2015 PT
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.49%
Esta dissertação tem o objetivo de analisar a crise da zona do euro (2007-2013) à luz do processo de integração europeu do pós-guerra e da teoria econômica ortodoxa que embasou e legitimou a forma de constituição da zona do euro. Em relação ao processo de integração, o trabalho enfatiza cinco fatores: 1) mudança das motivações; 2) consolidação da liderança alemã; 3) como as diversas etapas de integração impactaram na coordenação de políticas econômicas; 4) inserção do bloco no sistema monetário e financeiro internacional em cada período; e 5) constituição de um bloco com países heterogêneos. Argumenta-se que a evolução do processo de integração, resultando na constituição de uma união monetária, em 1999, ocorreu sob influência da teoria econômica ortodoxa, com o Novo Consenso Macroeconômico e a Hipótese dos Mercados Eficientes, além dos efeitos dessas teorias para as modificações da teoria das Áreas Monetárias Ótimas. Nesse sentido, sustenta-se que a institucionalidade da zona do euro, em um contexto de livre movimentação de capitais, resultou em problemas estruturais que permitiram: 1) a evolução dos desequilíbrios internos ao bloco, no período de expansão econômica (2000-2007)...

Some facts about business cycles synchronisation across the euro area countries: the case of small countries

Gouveia, S.; Correia, Leonida Amaral Tomás
Fonte: Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro Publicador: Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro
Tipo: Conferência ou Objeto de Conferência
ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.55%
According to Optimum Currency Area literature, the synchronisation of business cycles is necessary for the successful implementation of a common monetary policy. This paper contributes to this debate, providing a descriptive analysis of the euro area business cycle synchronisation, using quarterly real GDP series, spanning from 1980:1 to 2004:4, for nine euro area countries. We consider the four largest countries (Germany, France, Italy and Spain), which account for almost 80% of the euro area GDP, and five among the smallest countries, Belgium, Finland, Greece, the Netherlands and Portugal. Our aim is to see whether the synchronisation and the amplitude of the business cycles across the Member States increased with the monetary integration process. We will give greater focus to small countries compared to what can be seen in existent literature. Overall, we found that the business cycles association for all nine countries considered from 1980 to 2004 is positive and significant. Moreover, evidence suggests that with the creation of the euro, business cycles became more correlated among the larger countries of the euro area, which is consistent with the hypothesis of endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area criteria. Contrarily...

Public sector wage gap and fiscal adjustments on the run-up to the euro area

Campos, Maria Manuel Trindade
Fonte: Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão Publicador: Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão
Tipo: Dissertação de Mestrado
Publicado em /06/2011 ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.52%
Mestrado em Econometria Aplicada e Previsão; This study examines the fiscal adjustments that took place on the run-up to the euro area and how were they reflected on the func¬tioning of the public sector labour markets in euro area countries. OECD data are used to identify and characterize episodes of fiscal consolidation in a broad set of countries and within the 1983-2001 time-frame, but focusing, in particular, on those corresponding to the euro area founding Member States and to the 1993-1997 period. To assess developments referring to compensation of employees and how the occurrence of these episodes affected public sector employment and wage growth in countries that in the 1990s were engaged in the fulfilment of the Maastricht criteria, microeconomic data drawn from the European Community Household Panel is used. Such data is also employed to estimate the public-private wage gap, using a novel ap¬proach that allows the estimation of quantile regressions accounting for individual-specific fixed effects. Results suggest that, on the run-up to the euro area, macroeconomic and interest rate conditions made it easier to comply with the Maastricht criteria without requiring partic¬ularly strong primary expenditure cuts. Regarding...

The monetary transmission mechanism in the Euro Area : has it changed with the EMU?

Silva, António Jorge Esteves da
Fonte: Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão Publicador: Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão
Tipo: Dissertação de Mestrado
Publicado em //2014 ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.42%
Mestrado em Economia Monetária e Financeira; We study whether the adoption of the euro and a single monetary policy have brought about a change in the monetary transmission mechanism and in the interactions of monetary policy, fiscal policy and financial stress in the euro area. We find that the stylized facts of monetary transmission remain valid but the response of output and, mainly, the fiscal and financial stress variables to a monetary policy shock seem to be stronger in the post-EMU period. These changes may signal a higher degree of synchronization of the euro area countries’ economies after the adoption of the euro. Regarding fiscal and financial stress shocks, the inclusion in the post-EMU period of the subprime and sovereign debt crises yields changes not only in the scale but also in the patterns of the responses of our model’s main variables. Overall, we conclude that the subprime and sovereign debt crises have contributed markedly to the post-EMU impulse response functions and, if those periods of financial turbulence are excluded, the responses of the macro variables to monetary, fiscal and financial stress shocks in the post-EMU period are of a remarkably small magnitude.

The monetary transmission mechanism in the Euro Area : has it changed with the EMU? A VAR approach, with fiscal policy and financial stress considerations

Afonso, António; Silva, António Jorge
Fonte: ISEG – Departamento de Economia Publicador: ISEG – Departamento de Economia
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento
Publicado em //2014 ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.31%
We study whether the adoption of the Euro and a single monetary policy have brought about a change in the monetary transmission mechanism and between the interactions of monetary policy, fiscal policy and financial stress in the Euro area. We find that the stylized facts of monetary transmission remain valid, but the response of output and, especially, fiscal and financial stress variables to a monetary policy shock, seems to be stronger in the post-EMU period. Regarding fiscal and financial stress shocks, the inclusion in the post-EMU period of subprime and sovereign debt crises yields, changes, not only in the scale, but also in the patterns of the responses of our model’s main variables.

The New Keynesian Model: An empirical application to the euro area economy

Barradas, R.
Fonte: Instituto Universitário de Lisboa Publicador: Instituto Universitário de Lisboa
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento
Publicado em 23/05/2013 ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.44%
This paper empirically applies the New Keynesian Model to the euro area’s economy during the period from the first quarter of 1999 to the last quarter of 2008, which is consistent with the scant empirical evidence on this Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model. Specifically, we proceed with an econometric estimation of the IS Curve, the Phillips Curve and the Taylor Rule to assess the ability of these three equations to describe the dynamics of aggregate demand and the inflation rate in the euro area, as well as monetary policy steering by the European Central Bank during its first 10 years. The New Keynesian Model is estimated using the Generalized Method of Moments, since the three equations denote hybrid features including backward and forward looking behaviours by economic agents and elements with rational expectations. Although this method of estimation may present some limitations, the New Keynesian Model seems to describe reasonably well the evolution of economic activity, the inflation rate and monetary policy in the euro area. Against this backdrop, the New Keynesian Model may provide an important tool for aiding the governments of euro area countries and the European Central Bank in the adoption and implementation of its policies over time.

Predicting GDP growth in the Euro Area

Campos, Claúdia Cristina Marinho
Fonte: NSBE - UNL Publicador: NSBE - UNL
Tipo: Dissertação de Mestrado
Publicado em /01/2013 ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.25%
A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics; Predicting GDP growth is a concern of several economic agents. The right way to model such variable is far from consensual. This paper’s goal is to compare different models for GDP growth forecasting in the euro area. For comparative purposes, an autoregressive model (which is used as benchmark) and two Autoregressive Distributed Models (ADL), which contain financial and non-financial variables, chosen based on the literature, are used. The main conclusion is that the ADL(2,1,1) considered has superior forecast performance in- and out-of-sample, although in this last case depending on the evaluation metric.

The Reliability of Real Time Estimates of the EURO Area Output Gap

MARCELLINO, Massimiliano; MUSSO, Alberto
Fonte: Instituto Universitário Europeu Publicador: Instituto Universitário Europeu
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento Formato: application/pdf; digital
EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.46%
This paper provides evidence on the reliability of euro area real-time output gap estimates, including those provided by the IMF, OECD and EC and a set of model based measures. A genuine real-time data set is used, including vintages of several sets of euro area output gap estimates available from 1999 to 2006. It turns out that real-time estimates of the output gap are characterised by a high degree of uncertainty, much higher than that resulting from model and estimation uncertainty only. In particular, the evidence indicates that both the magnitude and the sign of the real-time estimates of the euro area output gap are very uncertain. The uncertainty is mostly due to parameter instability, while data revisions seem to play a minor role. To benchmark our results, we repeat the analysis for the US over the same sample. It turns out that US real time estimates are much more correlated with final estimates than for the euro area, data revisions play a larger role, but overall the unreliability in real time of the US output gap measures detected in earlier studies is confirmed in the more recent period

The Forecasting Performance of Real Time Estimates of the EURO Area Output Gap

MARCELLINO, Massimiliano; MUSSO, Alberto
Fonte: Instituto Universitário Europeu Publicador: Instituto Universitário Europeu
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento Formato: application/pdf; digital
EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.34%
This paper provides real time evidence on the usefulness of the euro area output gap as a leading indicator for inflation and growth. A genuine real-time data set for the euro area is used, including vintages of several alternative gap estimates. It turns out that, despite some difference across output gap estimates and forecast horizons, the results point clearly to a lack of any usefulness of real-time output gap estimates for inflation forecasting both in the short term (one-quarter and one-year ahead) and the medium term (two-year and three-year ahead). By contrast, we find some evidence that several output gap estimates are useful to forecast real GDP growth, particularly in the short term, and some appear also useful in the medium run. A comparison with the US yields similar conclusions.

Optimal Currency Area Revisited

MERSCH, Yves
Fonte: Instituto Universitário Europeu Publicador: Instituto Universitário Europeu
Tipo: Outros Formato: application/pdf; digital
EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.45%
Several euro area member states are under increased market scrutiny although public finances in the euro area as a bloc are in a much better shape than in the US or Japan. The main reason is that the euro area is an alliance of sovereign countries with most of the relevant political decisions - including public finance - being taken by national governments whereas the other major currencies are sovereign states with central governments and budgets. In the absence of a central government and an internal nominal exchange rate, effective rules are required to safeguard the stability of a currency area. The current crisis has disclosed the weaknesses of the institutional set up of the euro area. Europe has already undertaken major steps to tackle these. Challenges remain, however, to further proceed in the direction of an Optimum Currency Area.; Document is based on a distinguished lecture held in Florence on 26 October 2011 by Yves Mersch, Governor of the Banque centrale du Luxembourg and Member of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank

The Reliability of Real Time Estimates of the Euro Area Output Gap

MARCELLINO, Massimiliano; MUSSO, Alberto
Fonte: Instituto Universitário Europeu Publicador: Instituto Universitário Europeu
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.56%
This paper provides evidence on the reliability of euro area real-time output gap estimates. A genuine real-time data set for the euro area is used, including vintages of several sets of euro area output gap estimates available from 1999 to 2010. It turns out that real-time estimates of the output gap tend to be characterised by a high degree of uncertainty, much higher than that resulting from model and estimation uncertainty only. In particular, the evidence indicates that both the magnitude and the sign of the real-time estimates of the euro area output gap are very uncertain. The uncertainty is mostly due to parameter instability and model uncertainty, while data revisions seem to play a minor role. Some euro area real-time measures, based on multivariate components models and capacity utilisation, are relatively less uncertain, but do not appear to be fully reliable along some dimensions. To benchmark our results, we repeat the analysis for the US over the same sample. It turns out that US real-time estimates tend to be revised to a lesser extent than euro area estimates. However, euro area real-time output gap estimates tend to display a higher correlation with the final estimates and the sign of the level of US real-time estimates tends to be revised more often compared to the corresponding euro area estimates. In addition...

Economic outlook for the Euro area in 2010 and 2011

Fonte: Instituto Universitário Europeu Publicador: Instituto Universitário Europeu
Tipo: Relatório Formato: application/pdf; digital
EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.49%
· The world economy will recover during 2010 and 2011 thanks to ultra-low key interest rates in industrial countries and to the strong growth in emerging markets economies. In the euro area, however, the phasing out of expansive fiscal policies and fiscal consolidation will drag down demand; rising exports will be the main driver of the recovery. Internal demand will have a positive (although small) contribution to growth in 2011. We expect euro area GDP to grow around 1.2% and 1.6% during 2010 and 2011, respectively. · Due to rising exports, the industrial sector will resume positive growth in the short run but the intensity of the recovery will be moderate and insufficient to compensate the sharp fall of 2009: at the end of 2011, the industrial production index is expected to be still 10% below its pre-crisis levels. · For the first time in its short history, the euro area is struggling with a crisis of confidence in the sustainability of the monetary union. Our forecast is based on the assumption that, with the help of the program adopted at the beginning of April, Greece will be able to meet its financial obligations and will carry out the required reforms. However, downside risks are high. One adverse effect of the current situation that might gain importance is that the interest rate burden of firms and households could increase quickly in spite of low key interest rates. This will occur if higher yields for government bonds take effect on the financing costs for private agents; this is a cause for concern because debt ratios for firms...

Economic outlook for the Euro area in 2009 and 2010

Fonte: Instituto Universitário Europeu Publicador: Instituto Universitário Europeu
Tipo: Relatório Formato: application/pdf; digital
EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.49%
· The euro area is experiencing an unprecedented drop in economic activity in the first semester of 2009. Private consumption is expected to decrease by more than 1% compared with the same period a year earlier, investment by about 10%, and exports by 16%. The only support to aggregate demand comes from public consumption, which increases by 1.5%. · We do not forecast any major improvement in the euro area economy for the rest of 2009. We expect a year on year decrease of 4.5% in the euro area Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2009, with a drop of 1.2% in private consumption, 9.4% in investment, and 14.9% in exports. · Industrial production also fell at a record pace in the first part of 2009. The year on year rate is now close to bottom at about -19%, and there will be only a minor recovery in the coming months, with a final result for 2009 close to -16%. · The relative resilience of private consumption in the euro area is mostly related to the only mild increase in the unemployment rate in several member states, with the remarkable exception of Spain and Ireland. Short time working schemes allow firms to keep workers (and their human capital) at relatively low costs. But clearly, these schemes are only attractive if demand is expected to resurge in a not too distant future. Hence...

Economic outlook for the Euro area in 2009 and 2010

Fonte: Instituto Universitário Europeu Publicador: Instituto Universitário Europeu
Tipo: Relatório Formato: application/pdf; digital
EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.52%
· For much of 2009, falling external demand will be the main drag on production in the euro area, with exports expected to decrease by about 13% in 2009. At the same time, the structural problems of the financial sector, combined with the uncertainty on future economic perspectives, will continue to impede investment, which will be reduced by about 6% in 2009. · Consumers will benefit from the increase in real wages that started in the summer of 2008 and will – due to the slow reaction of wage setting to the business cycle in most European countries – continue for the year 2009. Thus, private consumption will, albeit shrinking modestly (-0.6%) because of rising unemployment, be a stabilizing factor for the economy in the euro area. A positive contribution will also come from public consumption, whose growth is forecasted at 1% for 2009 and 0.5% for 2010. · Overall, we expect GDP in the euro area to shrink by 2.8% in 2009, with a modest increase of 0.4% in 2010. This forecast is subject to substantial uncertainty, the interval forecast for growth in 2009 ranges from -3.6% to -2.1%, and it is conditional on a tentative stabilization of financial markets and the real sector, since governments will continue supporting ailing institutions. One major risk factor is that some euro area countries might no longer be able to do so...

Economic outlook for the Euro area in 2007 and 2008

Fonte: Instituto Universitário Europeu Publicador: Instituto Universitário Europeu
Tipo: Relatório Formato: application/pdf; digital
EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.5%
• Our forecast for GDP growth in the euro area is 2.5% for 2007 and 2.1% for 2008. World financial markets will not be as supportive for growth in the rest of 2007 as they were last year. Asset prices will probably rise much slower, and risk spreads will be slightly higher. The mild deceleration of GDP growth in the US, combined with the US$/euro exchange rate, will not be supportive for exports. However, there will be a positive evolution of private consumption and investment, which will drive GDP growth in the euro area. From a supply-side perspective, the sectors experiencing higher growth will be industry and market and financial services • The favourable developments in the labour markets of the euro area will continue this year, with a further decline in the unemployment rate and an expected acceleration of wage growth. The latter will sustain an increase in private consumption that, as mentioned, will lead to higher GDP growth. • A main risk for our positive forecast, which might be even more relevant in 2008, is a possible downturn of the housing market in some countries that would lead to a slump in consumer demand. Spain might be particularly vulnerable, because the housing boom in that country is combined with a loss in competitiveness due to rising unit labour costs. A significant devaluation of the dollar is also another important risk to take into consideration. • Notwithstanding sustained GDP growth...

Economic outlook for the Euro area in 2006 and 2007

Fonte: Instituto Universitário Europeu Publicador: Instituto Universitário Europeu
Tipo: Relatório Formato: application/pdf; digital
EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.54%
• The global economy has continued to expand briskly in the summer of 2006, but in the second half of this year and in the first half of 2007, the upswing of the world economy will lose momentum in the wake of slower growth in the US. In addition, monetary policy has become less expansionary in all important countries, threatening the widespread housing market boom. Finally, fiscal policy will be slightly restrictive in the US, in the euro area, and in Japan in 2006 and 2007. • In the first half of 2006 output in the euro area expanded at the fastest pace in five years, with particularly strong investment activity. Firms have at last reacted to conditions that have been beneficial for the past two years: cheap capital due to low real interest rates and rising equities, and a moderate growth in unit labour costs. • Demand in the euro area will expand at a more moderate rate in the second half of 2006 and in the beginning of 2007: exports will suffer from the appreciation of the euro relative to dollar and yen during spring and summer 2006, and from weaker stimuli from the world economy, in particular from the US. Economic policy will dampen as well: the ECB appears to be determined to reach a neutral monetary stance quickly; and in 2007 fiscal policy will be clearly restrictive in Italy and in Germany. • Conditions in the labour markets...

Economic outlook for the Euro area in 2005 and 2006

Fonte: Instituto Universitário Europeu Publicador: Instituto Universitário Europeu
Tipo: Relatório Formato: application/pdf; digital
EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.49%
• The upswing of the world economy continues over the forecasting period, but at a lower rate. The recent oil price hike has dampened economic activity. Fiscal stimuli in the US have diminished, and China has already begun to take measures to cool down its economy from overheating. Growth rates of world trade are expected to decline slightly to about 7 percent, after 8.5 percent in 2004. • A rise of interest rates by the Federal Reserve and more cautious household spending behaviour will stabilize the current account deficit in the US, and the euro will not further appreciate against the US dollar. One euro will cost 1.28 dollars in 2005, depreciating to 1.20 dollars in 2006, in line with purchasing power parity. • The recovery in the euro area lags behind the world business cycle, and the forecasts have been revised downwards. GDP growth is expected to be at around 1.7 in 2005, and will accelerate to 1.9 in 2006. Due to the appreciation of the euro and the slowing upswing of the world economy, the contribution of net exports to GDP growth is 0, and growth will be mainly driven by the evolution of consumption and investment. • Consumers in the euro area appear to be cautious in view of the budget problems in many member states...

Flexibilisation of the Euro area : challenges and opportunities

BEUKERS, Thomas
Fonte: Instituto Universitário Europeu Publicador: Instituto Universitário Europeu
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento Formato: application/pdf; digital
EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.41%
This working paper explores the challenges and opportunities of a possible euro area flexibility clause. Such a clause, if introduced through a limited revision of the current EU Treaties, could be used to partially respond to one of the institutional challenges exposed by the Eurozone crisis, namely that member states (permanently) outside the euro area can block change desired by the member states within the euro area. It would provide an alternative to a comprehensive treaty revision and to going outside the treaties by concluding additional intergovernmental treaties.; An earlier version of this paper was presented at the Workshop “Revising European Treaties”, organised by the RSCAS/EUI on 11 November 2013.

Economic outlook for the Euro area in 2014 and 2015

Fonte: Instituto Universitário Europeu Publicador: Instituto Universitário Europeu
Tipo: Relatório Formato: application/pdf; digital
EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.52%
• In autumn 2014, world production continues to be expanding at a moderate rate, a bit faster than at the beginning of the year. A strong upswing of the world economy is, however, not in sight: the US upswing continues but is not probable to gain more pace, and the Chinese economy has to cope with severe problems in the financial and the housing sector. • Important conditions for a stronger recovery are in place: the fall in financing costs allows euro area governments to conduct fiscal policies that are, on average, clearly less restrictive than in the years before, and nonfinancial firms benefit from a shrinking burden of interest payments. Interest rates for bank credit in the southern economies are now slowly going down. However, the recovery will stay sluggish as long as firms and households lack confidence in the economic policy of important member states. In fact, economic confidence in the euro area declined somewhat during summer in part due to news on the conflict between Russia and the west, although only about 5% of all exports leaving the euro area go to Russia or Ukraine. • Production growth in the euro area slowed down to stagnation in the second quarter, mainly due to a decline in Germany related to a weather effect. Demand in the rest of the euro area continued to slowly expand. In this context...

Theory and practice of equilibrium real exchange rates looking into the euro-area empirical evidence /

Marín Martínez, Carmen
Fonte: Bellaterra : Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Publicador: Bellaterra : Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona,
Tipo: Tesis i dissertacions electròniques; info:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesis Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em //2004 ENG; ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.46%
Consultable des del TDX; Títol obtingut de la portada digitalitzada; El principal objetivo de esta tesis es el análisis del comportamiento del tipo de cambio real en el horizonte del medio y largo plazo. Con este objetivo se desarrollan tres trabajos de investigación que, presentados en diferentes capítulos, conforman el cuerpo principal de este estudio. En particular, el capítulo uno analiza cómo la respuesta del enfoque clásico a la relación entre el crecimiento económico de un país y su tipo de cambio real de largo plazo puede ser enriquecido con la consideración de un modelo más general de equilibrio intertemporal. En este capítulo consideramos un modelo simple de crecimiento exógeno en el que se imponen las condiciones de equilibrio internas, externas e intertemporales de un modelo macroeconómico estándar. El principal resultado de esta consideración es que la relación defendida por la hipótesis de Balassa-Samuelson deja de cumplirse necesariamente. En nuestro enfoque particular, la relación bilateral de la que se ha hecho mención dependerá de un parámetro que mide la propensión al ahorro en la economía. Por tanto, la probabilidad de acabar con una relación positiva entre crecimiento y tipo de cambio -tal y como predice la teoría clásica- será mayor cuando la economía es capaz de mantener una propensión al ahorro mínima. Adicionalmente...