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Agent-based simulation of retail electricity markets: Bilateral contracting with demand response

Lopes, Fernando; Algarvio, Hugo; Ilco, Cristina; Sousa, Jorge
Fonte: IEEE - Conference publications Publicador: IEEE - Conference publications
Tipo: Conferência ou Objeto de Conferência
Publicado em //2013 ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.56%
The novelty of the evolving electric power industry implies that researchers lack insight into numerous open problems. There is a growing need for advanced modeling approaches that simulate the behavior of electricity markets over time. Accordingly, this article looks at using software agents to help manage the complexity of electricity markets, particularly retail markets, towards ensuring long-term capacity sustainability. The article focuses on bilateral trading and describes some important features of an agent-based system for bilateral contracting with demand response. Special attention is devoted to two strategies for promoting demand response: a “volume management” strategy, for Buyer agents, and a “price management” strategy, for Seller agents.

Agent-based simulation of retail electricity markets: Bilateral trading players

Lopes, Fernando; Algarvio, Hugo; Coelho, Helder
Fonte: IEEE - Conference Publications Publicador: IEEE - Conference Publications
Tipo: Conferência ou Objeto de Conferência
Publicado em //2013 ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.6%
The electricity industry throughout the world, which has long been dominated by vertically integrated utilities, has experienced major changes. Deregulation, unbundling, wholesale and retail wheeling, and real-time pricing were abstract concepts a few years ago. Today market forces drive the price of electricity and reduce the net cost through increased competition. As power markets continue to evolve, there is a growing need for advanced modeling approaches. Accordingly, this article looks at using software agents to help manage the complexity of electricity markets, particularly retail markets. The article focuses on bilateral trading and describes some important features of an agent-based system for bilateral contracting. Special attention is devoted to the characteristics and negotiation behaviour of Buyer and Seller agents.

The Single-Buyer Model : A Dangerous Path toward Competitive Electricity Markets

Lovei, Laszlo
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.65%
Many Asian, African and Eastern European countries freeing up their electricity markets are preserving an artificial monopoly over the wholesale trading of electricity even after the vertically integrated national power company is unbundled. Evidence so far suggests that this single buyer model has major disadvantages in developing countries: it invites corruption, weakens payment discipline, and imposes contingent liabilities on the government. These disadvantages in most cases overshadow the higher short-term costs of a bilateral contracts model where generators contract with customers.

The Development of Electricity Markets in the Euro-Mediterranean Area : Trends and Prospects for Liberalization and Regional Integration

Muller-Jentsch, Daniel
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.67%
The main objective of this document is to map key policy issues that need to be addressed to successfully implement energy sector reform at the national, and regional levels, and, provides an overview of global, European, and Mediterranean trends, aiming at facilitating the dissemination of best practices. Chapter I describes international best practices in the design of legal, regulatory, and institutional sector framework, which include corporatization, and restructuring of state-owned energy utilities; separation of regulatory and operational functions, by creating coherent regulatory frameworks, establishing independent regulators, and promoting competition; engaging the electricity industry into generation, transmission, distribution, and trade; introduction of competition in generation, and trade, and, in the regulation of monopolistic activities; promotion of private participation; and, reduction of subsidies, and balance of tariffs. Chapters II and III examine power sector reform in the European Union (EU)...

Integration of Electricity Networks in the Arab World : Regional Market Structure and Design

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.81%
The Arab countries have enjoyed sustained economic growth in recent years, and the high economic growth has triggered a rapid increase in energy demand, particularly for electricity. Besides enabling energy imports, interconnected power networks impart a series of additional benefits such as improved system reliability, reduced reserve margins, reactive power support, and energy exchanges that take advantage of daily and seasonal demand diversity and disparities in marginal production costs. As a result, a world-class electricity supply system can be achieved with much lower capital expenditures and ongoing expenses than will otherwise be attainable on an individual-country basis. The regional power interconnection of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), allows electricity exchange among its six member states: Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Oman under an agreement signed in 2009. The interconnection is targeted at sharing capacity reserve and improving supply reliability...

Institutional Arrangements for the Promotion of Regional Integration of Electricity Markets : International Experience

Oseni, Musiliu O.; Pollitt, Michael G.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.77%
This paper focuses on the institutional arrangements needed for facilitating regional electricity cooperation. The paper begins by discussing the theory of international trade cooperation in electricity, with a view to discussing what preconditions might be important in facilitating wide area trading across national borders. It then discusses two sets of case studies. The first set focuses on three regional developing country power pools -- the Southern African Power Pool, the West African Power Pool, and the Central American Power Market. The second set focuses on three regional power pools in more developed countries -- one in the United States, the Single Electricity Market in Ireland, and the South East Europe market. These cases highlight the potential and difficulty of having cross-jurisdictional power pools. In the light of the theory and evidence presented, key lessons are drawn in the areas of preconditions for trading, necessary institutional arrangements, practicalities of timetabling, reasons to be hopeful about future prospects...

Predicting Market Power in Wholesale Electricity Markets

NEWBERY, David
Fonte: Instituto Universitário Europeu Publicador: Instituto Universitário Europeu
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento Formato: application/pdf; digital
EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.57%
The traditional measure of market power is the HHI, which gives implausible results given the low elasticity of demand in electricity spot markets, unless it is adapted to take account of contracting. In its place the Residual Supply Index has been proposed as a more suitable index to measure potential market power in electricity markets, notably in California and more recently in the EU Sector Inquiry. The paper investigates its value in identifying the ability of firms to raise prices in an electricity market with contracts and capacity constraints and find that it is most useful for the case of a single dominant supplier, or with a natural extension, for the case of a symmetric oligoply. Estimates from the Sector Inquiry seem to fit this case better than might be expected, but suggests an alternative defintion of the RSI defined over flexible output that should give a more reliable relationship.

The integration of the European electricity markets at a turning point: from the regional model to the Third Legislative Package

SQUICCIARINI, Giuseppina; CERVIGNI, Guido; PEREKHODTSEV, Dmitri; POLETTI, Clara
Fonte: Instituto Universitário Europeu Publicador: Instituto Universitário Europeu
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento Formato: application/pdf; digital
EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.53%
In this paper we discuss the EU policy on electricity markets integration by reviewing the experience of the Electricity Regional Initiatives. The regional approach to market integration delivered important results in areas such as coordination among national transmission system operators, implementation of market-based mechanisms for cross-border transmission capacity allocation and transparency. Furthermore, the inclusive governance process lead by ERGEG gave voice to all relevant stakeholders. However, there are indications that the regional model reached its limit when faced with the objective of coordinating day-ahead and real-time markets. The unanimity approach at the regional level made the intra-regional decision-making process extremely slow. Further, inter-regional integration issues have not been solved yet and attempts to tackle them by prioritising projects in some Regions weakened the pluralistic attributes of the regional model. The Third Legislative Energy Package has the potential to overcome some of these shortcomings by empowering pan-European institutions (ENTSO and ACER) and by involving Member States in the decision making process. Some weaknesses of the second-package, though, persist in the new framework. First...

Structural versus Behavioral Measures in the Deregulation of Electricity Markets: An Experimental Investigation Guided by Theory and Policy Concerns

VAN KOTEN, Silvester; ORTMANN, Andreas
Fonte: Instituto Universitário Europeu Publicador: Instituto Universitário Europeu
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento Formato: application/pdf; digital
EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.65%
We try to better understand the comparative advantages of structural and behavioral measures of deregulation in electricity markets, an eminent policy issue for which the experimental evidence is scant and problematic. In the present paper we investigate theoretically and experimentally the effects of the introduction of a forward market on competition in electricity markets. We compare this scenario with the best alternative, reducing concentration by adding one more competitor by divestiture. Our work contributes to the literature by introducing more realistic cost configurations, teasing apart number and asset effect, and studying numbers of competitors that reflect better the market concentration in the European electricity industries. Our experimental data suggest that introducing a forward market has a positive effect on the aggregate supply in markets with two or three major competitors, configurations typical for both the newly accessed and the old European Union member states. Introducing a forward market also increases efficiency. Our data furthermore suggest, in contrast to previous findings, that the effects of introducing a forward market is stronger than adding one more competitor both in markets with two, and particularly three...

How to allocate forward contracts: The case of electricity markets

Frutos, María Ángeles de; Fabra, Natalia
Fonte: Elsevier Publicador: Elsevier
Tipo: info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersion; info:eu-repo/semantics/article Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 23/12/2011 ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.48%
Several regulatory authorities worldwide have imposed forward contract commitments on electricity producers as away to mitigate their market power. In this paper we analyze the impact of such commitments on equilibrium outcomes in a model that reflects important institutional and structural features of electricity markets. We show that, when firms area symmetric, the distribution of contracts among firms matters. In the case of a single dominant firm, the regulator can be confident that allocating contracts to that firm will be pro-competitive. However, when asymmetries are less extreme, certain contract allocations might yield anti-competitive outcomes by eliminating more competitive equilibria. Our analysis thus suggests that forward contracts should be allocated so as to (virtually) reduce asymmetries across firms.

Capacity Markets for Electricity

Creti, Anna; Fabra, Natalia
Fonte: Universidade Carlos III de Madrid Publicador: Universidade Carlos III de Madrid
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em //2003 ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.61%
The creation of electricity markets has raised the fundamental question as to whether markets provide the right incentives for the provision of the reserves needed to maintain system reliability, or whether some form of regulation is needed. In some states in the US, electricity retailers have been made responsible for providing such reserves by contracting capacity in excess of their forecasted peak demand. The so- called Installed Capacity Markets (ICAP) provide one means for contracting reserves, and are the subject of this paper. In particular, for given productive and transmission capacities, we identify ¯rms' opportunity costs of committing resources in the capac- ity market, and hence, the costs of inducing full capacity commitment. Regulatory issues such as the optimal choice of the reserve margin and the capacity de¯ciency rate (which serves as a price-cap) are analyzed. From a welfare view-point, we also com- pare the desirability of providing reserves either through capacity markets or through the demand side (i.e. voluntary curtailments).

Comparison of Long-Term Contracts and Vertical Integration in Decentralised Electricity Markets

MEADE, Richard; O'CONNOR, Seini
Fonte: Instituto Universitário Europeu Publicador: Instituto Universitário Europeu
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento Formato: application/pdf
EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.62%
Decentralised electricity systems require effective price and quantity risk management mechanisms, but the nature of such systems poses particular problems for satisfying those requirements. Among these problems are investment hold-up risks rooted in the competition facing both electricity retailers and large industrial firms. Additional problems include those of load profile, information and bargaining mismatches between generators and customers. Significantly, hold-up risks exist not only between retailers and generators, but also affect (e.g. fuel) suppliers upstream of generators. Contracts are one means of addressing such problems, and represent a particular improvement on spot market trading alone. However, we argue that market contracting in electricity systems is a costly approach to addressing hold-up and related problems, and that internal organisation (i.e. vertical integration) is a more efficient alternative, minimising the overall costs of market contracting and ownership. Not only does integration internalise wholesale market risks and market power costs to the integrated firm, thereby reducing their importance, it also reduces the need for and efficacy of regulation to constrain generator market power. It furthermore thins contract markets...

Poverty and Environmental Impacts of Electricity Price Reforms in Montenegro

Silva, Patricia; Klytchnikova, Irina; Radevic, Dragana
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.67%
The Government of Montenegro is preparing an electricity tariff reform due to recent developments in the national and regional electricity markets. Electricity tariffs for residential consumers in Montenegro are likely to gradually increase by anywhere from 40 to over 100 percent. This significant price rise will impose a heavy burden on poor households and it may adversely affect the environment. In an ex-ante investigation of the welfare impact of this price increase on households in Montenegro, the authors show that the anticipated price increase will result in a significant increase in households' energy expenditures. A simulation of alternative policy measures analyzes the impact of different tariff levels and structures on the poor and vulnerable households in particular. Higher electricity prices could also significantly increase the proportion of households using fuelwood for space heating.

A long-term swarm intelligence hedging tool applied to electricity markets

Azevedo, Filipe; Vale, Zita
Fonte: Instituto Politécnico do Porto Publicador: Instituto Politécnico do Porto
Tipo: Conferência ou Objeto de Conferência
Publicado em //2009 ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.48%
This paper proposes a swarm intelligence long-term hedging tool to support electricity producers in competitive electricity markets. This tool investigates the long-term hedging opportunities available to electric power producers through the use of contracts with physical (spot and forward) and financial (options) settlement. To find the optimal portfolio the producer risk preference is stated by a utility function (U) expressing the trade-off between the expectation and the variance of the return. Variance estimation and the expected return are based on a forecasted scenario interval determined by a long-term price range forecast model, developed by the authors, whose explanation is outside the scope of this paper. The proposed tool makes use of Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and its performance has been evaluated by comparing it with a Genetic Algorithm (GA) based approach. To validate the risk management tool a case study, using real price historical data for mainland Spanish market, is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.

Six thinking hats for electricity markets simulation: adapting meeting tools to agent decision

Barreto, João Costa Borges
Fonte: Instituto Politécnico do Porto. Instituto Superior de Engenharia do Porto Publicador: Instituto Politécnico do Porto. Instituto Superior de Engenharia do Porto
Tipo: Dissertação de Mestrado
Publicado em //2012 ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.56%
In almost all industrialized countries, the energy sector has suffered a severe restructuring that originated a greater complexity in market players’ interactions. The complexity that these changes brought made way for the creation of decision support tools that facilitate the study and understanding of these markets. MASCEM – “Multiagent Simulator for Competitive Electricity Markets” arose in this context providing a framework for evaluating new rules, new behaviour, and new participants in deregulated electricity markets. MASCEM uses game theory, machine learning techniques, scenario analysis and optimisation techniques to model market agents and to provide them with decision-support. ALBidS is a multiagent system created to provide decision support to market negotiating players. Fully integrated with MASCEM it considers several different methodologies based on very distinct approaches. The Six Thinking Hats is a powerful technique used to look at decisions from different perspectives. This tool’s goal is to force the thinker to move outside his habitual thinking style. It was developed to be used mainly at meetings in order to “run better meetings, make faster decisions”. This dissertation presents a study about the applicability of the Six Thinking Hats technique in Decision Support Systems...

Adaptive learning in agents behaviour: a framework for electricity markets simulation

Pinto, Tiago
Fonte: Instituto Politécnico do Porto. Instituto Superior de Engenharia do Porto Publicador: Instituto Politécnico do Porto. Instituto Superior de Engenharia do Porto
Tipo: Dissertação de Mestrado
Publicado em //2011 ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.67%
Electricity markets are complex environments with very particular characteristics. A critical issue regarding these specific characteristics concerns the constant changes they are subject to. This is a result of the electricity markets’ restructuring, which was performed so that the competitiveness could be increased, but it also had exponential implications in the increase of the complexity and unpredictability in those markets scope. The constant growth in markets unpredictability resulted in an amplified need for market intervenient entities in foreseeing market behaviour. The need for understanding the market mechanisms and how the involved players’ interaction affects the outcomes of the markets, contributed to the growth of usage of simulation tools. Multi-agent based software is particularly well fitted to analyze dynamic and adaptive systems with complex interactions among its constituents, such as electricity markets. This dissertation presents ALBidS – Adaptive Learning strategic Bidding System, a multiagent system created to provide decision support to market negotiating players. This system is integrated with the MASCEM electricity market simulator, so that its advantage in supporting a market player can be tested using cases based on real markets’ data. ALBidS considers several different methodologies based on very distinct approaches...

An automatic tool to Extract, Transform and Load data from real electricity markets

Pereira, Ivo F.; Praça, Isabel; Pinto, Tiago; Sousa, Tiago; Freitas, Ana; Vale, Zita
Fonte: ELECON Publicador: ELECON
Tipo: Conferência ou Objeto de Conferência
Publicado em /09/2013 ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.7%
The study of Electricity Markets operation has been gaining an increasing importance in the last years, as result of the new challenges that the restructuring produced. Currently, lots of information concerning Electricity Markets is available, as market operators provide, after a period of confidentiality, data regarding market proposals and transactions. These data can be used as source of knowledge, to define realistic scenarios, essential for understanding and forecast Electricity Markets behaviour. The development of tools able to extract, transform, store and dynamically update data, is of great importance to go a step further into the comprehension of Electricity Markets and the behaviour of the involved entities. In this paper we present an adaptable tool capable of downloading, parsing and storing data from market operators’ websites, assuring actualization and reliability of stored data.

Platform Markets and Energy Services

Weiller, Claire M.; Pollitt, Michael G.
Fonte: Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge Publicador: Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge
Tipo: Working Paper; not applicable
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.6%
A structural shift from transaction-based, marginal cost pricing to fee-based service business models often accompanies We emergence of ?platform? markets, i.e. multi-sided markets where an intermediary captures the value of the interaction between user groups. The many examples include telecommunications, data storage, cinema, music and media, and the automobile industry. Why not electricity? In this paper, we explore how the electricity supply industry can be conceived of as a platform-mediated, two-sided market and the consequences for pricing. Through two cases, a balancing services provider for smart home energy management systems and an electric vehicle charge manager, we show where a platform entrant could position itself in the retail electricity markets between supply companies and end-users. The drivers of such a transition include increased volatility due to renewable generation, the new complexity of roles for end-users, and the introduction of information and communication technologies. Conceiving of electricity as a platform market where new entrants provide an energy optimisation and management service may stimulate a competitive ecosystem and innovation. We suggest that fee-based pricing would enable the objectives of time-varying pricing to be achieved without adversely affecting the most vulnerable customers.

Can current electricity markets cope with high shares of renewables? A comparison of approaches in Germany, the UK and the State of New York

Pollitt, Michael G.; Anaya, Karim L.
Fonte: International Association for Energy Economics Publicador: International Association for Energy Economics
Tipo: Article; accepted version
EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.64%
This is the author accepted manuscript. It is currently embargoed pending publication.; This paper looks at the empirical and theoretical background to high shares of renewables in the electricity system. First we examine what is meant by ?high shares? of renewables; next we consider what we mean by electricity ?markets?; then we discuss what the term ?cope with? implies; before returning to the suitability of ?current? electricity markets. Second, we turn to three examples of jurisdictions ? Germany, the UK and the State of New York in the US - with specific aspirations for decarbonisation and the role of renewables. Each exhibits very different approaches to the way they are adjusting their electricity market design to cope with high shares of renewables. We suggest that a new wave of electricity experiments is beginning around the theme of how to incorporate large shares of intermittent renewable generation in to electricity systems.

The promotion of regional integration of electricity markets: Lessons for developing countries

Oseni, Musiliu; Pollitt, Michael G.
Fonte: Elsevier Publicador: Elsevier
Tipo: Article; accepted version
EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.55%
This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Elsevier via http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2015.09.007 A longer version of this paper has also been published as World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 6947, available at: http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/06/19732154/institutional-arrangements-promotion-regional-integration-electricity-markets-international-experience-vol-1; This paper focuses on how to promote electricity regional cooperation. We begin by discussing the theory of international trade cooperation in electricity, with a view to discussing what preconditions might be important in facilitating wide area trading across national borders. We then develop lessons based on the comparison of four case studies. These include three regional developing country power pools ? the Southern African Power pool (SAPP), West African Power pool (WAPP) and the Central American Power Market (MER). We contrast these with Northern Europe?s Nord Pool. These cases highlight both the potential and difficulty of having cross-jurisdictional power pools. In the light of the theory and evidence we present, we draw key lessons for other regions ? such as the South Asia Region (SAR) ? in the areas of: preconditions for trading; necessary institutional arrangements; practicalities of timetabling; reasons to be hopeful about future prospects.; The authors acknowledge the financial support of the World Bank and the support and advice of Mike Toman and Jevgenijs Steinbuks. All opinions expressed in the paper are those of the authors alone and should not be taken to represent those of the World Bank or any of its employees.