Biblioteca Digital

Este trabalho examina a convergência que o pensamento macroeconômico mainstream tem vivenciado há pelo menos duas décadas. Novos Clássicos e Novos Keynesianos passaram a dividir as mesmas premissas teóricas e a propor os mesmos tipos de política econômica, formando um consenso ao qual se convencionou chamar de Nova Síntese Neoclássica ou Novo Consenso em Macroeconomia. A principal expressão do Novo Consenso é execução da política monetária, na forma do ajuste da taxa de juros de referência da economia, enquanto único instrumento de política macroeconômica. Nesse processo, a política fiscal é deixada em segundo plano, sem o papel ativo de política de ajuste, e com o objetivo de manter a estabilidade da dívida pública, no intuito de garantir os "fundamentos da economia". Entretanto, com a crise econômica de 2008, a política fiscal volta à tona tanto no ajuste macroeconômico quanto no debate acadêmico mainstream. Neste sentido, o trabalho também examina em que medida o episódio da crise representa uma mudança no pensamento macroeconômico dominante atual com relação ao papel da política fiscal; This thesis examines the convergence mainstream macroeconomics thought experienced in the last two decades. New Classicals and New Keynesians have been sharing the same theoretical assumptions and proposing the same kind of economic policy in a consensus which has been called New Neoclassical Synthesis or New Macroeconomics Consensus. The main characteristic of the New Consensus is the execution of monetary policy...

This working paper examines the housing transitions of young people presently studying at universities in Lisbon, Portugal (n=200). While prior research has established that Portuguese youth tend to stay within the parental home for prolonged periods, this discussion asks if the on-going economic crisis is likely to make a significant impact upon these housing transitions. Other related issues explored include the extent of respondents’ involvement in domestic tasks and the extent of support received from parents, in addition to subjective assessments of the impact of the economic crisis upon their future lives. The results not only confirm that these young people intend to prolong their stays in the parental home due to the crisis, but also that they envisage difficulties in entering an increasingly unstable labour market, which leads to a perception of the future characterised by precarity.

O artigo analisa as transições de habitação/habitacionais dos jovens que estudam em universidades em Lisboa, Portugal. Com a juventude portuguesa a ficar em casa dos pais por períodos prolongados, a presente discussão questiona a probabilidade de a crise económica ter um novo impacto no comportamento habitacional. Os temas explorados incluem tomadas de decisão habitacionais, envolvimento nas tarefas domésticas e apoio recebido dos pais. Os resultados confirmam que a maioria destes jovens tendem a prolongar a estadia em casa dos pais devido à crise, com as suas escolhas habitacionais ligadas ao dinheiro e à estabilidade no emprego.; This article examines the housing transitions of young people studying at universities in Lisbon, Portugal.With Portuguese youth already staying within the parental home for prolonged periods, the present discussion asks if the economic crisis is likely to make a further impact upon the housing behaviour of respondents. Issues explored include housing decision-making, involvement in domestic tasks and support received from parents. The results confirm that the majority of these young people intend to prolong their stays in the parental home due to the crisis, with their housing choices strongly linked to financial considerations and employment stability.; L’article analyse les transitions du logement des jeunes qui étudient dans les universités de Lisbonne...

The economic and financial crisis has brought firms, territories and countries before a set of restrictions to a greater or lesser extent, function as the conditioners of economic activity for several agents, also affecting their activities associated with the development of its innovation process. Innovation is a highly complex process, very contingent and onerously demanding. With innovation as a key source of high economic performance, it is important to understand to what extent the current economic crisis is to constrain the innovation of firms and thus, the process of wealth creation. The main objective of this paper is to show that the economic crisis has a different effect on firms, depending on the type of innovation strategies adopted. For this, we identify some relevant relations between the economic crisis and the critical factors of the innovation process, namely knowledge networks and context costs, special dimensions that we associate with the efficiency of institutional and relational capital. These objectives will be achieved using several statistical and econometric techniques, with information found in a database obtained through a business survey. Our main results show some interesting findings: first we find evidence that the most dynamic firms recognize less impact of the economic crisis. Second...

More than ever firms will be required to develop strategies for coping with future shocks and stresses to our economic and social infrastructures. They will need to build the so called resilience capacity, which is an umbrella term for the planning and design strategies that help firms to develop the necessary capacity to meet challenges. The present paper, based on an assessment of works that explore recent European reports on innovation performance, discusses some underling effects of the economic crisis. This discussion reveals the main differentiating impacts of a major downturn on innovation behavior. Some of the conclusions acknowledge that firms will have to find new ways to reduce their risk-averse dependency and become more flexible. To become more resilient, firms will need to adopt planning and design strategies that allow them to develop the capacities to better respond and adapt to the emerging economic and social stresses. Developing these capacities will involve firms in a complex web of planning and development decisions that, in combination, must be designed to transform our current economic systems into much more flexible and dynamic ones. Small and medium enterprises are more exposed to high competitive pressures. Thus...

This research is part of a wider International study realized starting from 2009 in different European countries (France, Great Britain, Greece, Italy and Romania) among the activities of the “Mediterranean Center for the study of Social Representaions (CeMeRS)” of Naples. The aim of this study, placed in the Structural approach, is to investigate the social representations of the economic crisis among different social groups. The objectives of the research are: a) verify if there are differences between social representations constructed by different social groups; b) explore if and how the social representation of economic crisis has been transformed from 2009 to 2012; c) identify the differences between social representations of economic crisis (SRsEc) in different cultural contexts. It has been used a mixed method approach, useful to investigate both the SRsEc structure and content, in both a synchronic and diachronic perspective. In particular the Hierarchized Evocation method, integrated with a questionnaire of characterization (in 2012), was made to reach the structure, while a semi-structured interview (in 2009) and a structured interview (in 2012) was realized to explore the content. Data were collected in two periods...

This paper analyzes the subjective impact of the global economic crisis on households in Europe and Central Asia and relates subjective impacts to consumption, actual shocks, and coping strategies, using the 2010 Life in Transition Survey. Two-thirds of respondents in Europe and Central Asia report their household was subjectively affected, primarily through the labor market. The findings underscore the limitations of cross-country comparisons of subjective perceptions, due to reporting biases. Within countries, richer households felt a decline in their relative income position, consistent with evidence from household budget surveys that the crisis reduced the consumption of the middle and upper classes. But the analysis also finds that poorer households report being (subjectively) affected by the crisis more. Differences in the feasibility of coping strategies may help explain variations in subjective perceptions: the poorest were forced to reduce their staple food consumption and health spending, and tended to depend on public safety nets. Richer households had more options to cope...

This paper examines the role of the public sector in providing additional information to exporters in developing countries as they seek to monitor and keep open their access to foreign markets by using the rules of the WTO system. It highlights new information generation and dissemination initiatives undertaken by the WTO Secretariat, Global Trade Alert, and the World Bank in response to the global economic crisis of 2008-2009. Given trends in the imposition of new crisis-era trade barriers that these initiatives have identified, the paper describes ways in which the new sources of rich and detailed data may be used to further assist developing country exporters that may lack the capacity to sufficiently monitor their trading interests by relying solely on private resources.

The paper analyses how the global economic crisis will affect the economies of the low income Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and discusses the fiscal measures which can be taken to help mitigate the adverse impact of the crisis. It focuses on Tajikistan, the poorest member of the CIS but also highlights similarities with the economies of Armenia, the Kyrgyz Republic and Moldova. The main channels through which the global economic crisis will affect the low income CIS economies is through a sharp reduction in remittances from migrant workers in Russia and lower export earnings. The adjustment to this external shock will involve a reduction in imports, private consumption, domestic output and government revenue. Fiscal policy, constrained by very limited macroeconomic and fiscal space, faces acute challenges. Maintaining budget targets for fiscal deficits and domestic borrowing in the face of revenue shortfalls will lead to a tightening of the fiscal stance, exacerbating recessionary pressures and making it very difficult to protect priority social expenditures from cuts. To avoid these outcomes...

This paper examines newly available data from the World Bank-sponsored Global Antidumping Database tracking the worldwide use of trade remedies such as antidumping, countervailing duties, global safeguards and China-specific safeguards during the current economic crisis. The data indicate a marked increase in WTO members combined resort to these instruments beginning in 2008 that continued into the first quarter 2009. The use of these import-restricting instruments is increasingly affecting "South-South" trade, i.e., developing country importers initiating and imposing new protectionist measures primarily affecting developing country exporters, with a special emphasis on exports from China. However, the collective value of imports in 2007 for the major (G-20) economies that has subsequently come under attack by the use of import-restricting trade remedies during the period of 2008 to early 2009 is likely less than $29 billion, or less than 0.45 per cent of these economies total imports, though there is substantial variation across countries. While the level of trade affected thus far may be small for most of these economies...

Global and economic aspects of the crisis: two aspects of the current crisis are important to stress. The first is its global nature. As you know, this crisis started last year in the US and European financial markets but spread quickly to developing countries. The second is its economic impact. Before the crisis erupted, many countries, and many developing countries in particular, were already suffering from the impact of very substantial food and fuel price increases, which had translated into higher inflation and current account deficits. As a result, the financial crisis has quickly become an economic crisis, and already many developed countries are in recession, and developing countries are seeing weakening growth.

This report aims to inform the discussion by summarizing recent World Bank analysis on the performance of the social safety net on the basis of the 2007 Multi-Topic Household Survey. It reviews the effectiveness of the main social safety net transfer programs in reducing poverty and assesses how well they are placed both to address the possible social impact of the crisis and to promote active social inclusion. It also reviews the effectiveness of recently introduced limits to eligibility to Guaranteed Minimum Income, the main social assistance benefit, which aimed at raising work incentives for beneficiaries. It finally lays out a set of policy recommendations on how to strengthen the social safety net to deal with the economic crisis in the short term as well as to promote employment activation and support broader a human development agenda over the medium term.

The Asian economic crisis dramatically influenced the context in which a growing number of international migrants had begun to spread from poorer to more industrialised countries in East Asia, accompanying the export and FDI booms of the 1990s. Important uncertainties included the impact on clandestine migrant workers, replacement of migrants by local workers and countervailing pressures for increased migration in labour exporting countries. The paper argues that the Asian economic crisis did not change the fundamental trend toward greater mobility within the region. The labour importers among the crisis countries continued to rely on unskilled migrant workers in ‘3-D’ jobs in export-oriented industries, and business and professional migrants played an important role in the recovery. In addition, pressures mounted for greater international migration of unskilled workers from poorer, labour surplus countries. However, several countries were forced to develop a more coherent policy towards migrant workers, in light of the social impact on migrants.; no

The European Convention on Human Rights is more than ever our common heritage (patrimoine commun) and we share in this respect a common responsibility at national and international level, between judges and scholars. That is why I really appreciate this kind of meeting since it gives us an opportunity to discuss the rights and freedoms enshrined in the Convention as they are interpreted by the European Court of Human Rights in the context of our contemporary society. That’s really the intelligence of the Convention: through the Court’s interpretation, the rights written in 1950 can have a meaning today in 2013. As legal theorists have observed, the law must be stable yet it cannot stand still. Adaptation and modification have been constant features of the Convention since 1950 and continue to be so today. In this lecture, I will examine the contribution of the European Court of Human Rights to the fight against poverty and social exclusion. I argue in favour of a reading of the European Convention on Human Rights that is aligned with the necessities of the times. In the face of the global financial and economic crisis that developed since 2008, this does not mean sacrificing human rights in the name of austerity and macro-economic discipline; it means improving the protection of the most vulnerable and marginalized segments of the population...

Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.; The Turkish economy remained an inward-oriented closed economy until the government launched an economic reform and stabilization program on January 24, 1980, to liberalize the Turkish economy. The stabilization program had a favorable impact on the Turkish economy, transforming it into an export-oriented, private-sector-driven economy. As the economy flourished, however, increasing political competition forced the government to compromise the stabilization program and pursue fiscally damaging populist economic policies, which resulted in an economic crisis in the beginning of 1994. The government responded to the economic crisis by launching an IMF backed economic stabilization program on April 5, 1994. As the economy recovered and economic stability improved, the government delayed continued implementation of the structural measures of the April 5th stabilization program, which resulted in the further deterioration of the Turkish economy. The worsening fiscal situation eventually culminated in another major economic crisis in 2001. The purpose of this thesis is to examine the causes of the 1994 Turkish economic crisis and the role of the government's economic policies in the emergence of the crisis. In addition...

This paper looks at regionalism through the lens of multilateralism in Asia–Pacific. Some of the substantial criticism from outside the region of Asia's multilateral institutions is warranted. That criticism is generally overdone, however, for two reasons: an inadequate understanding of the achievements of regional multilateralism over the past two or so decades; and an inadequate understanding of how the region responded to the economic crisis. The major achievements of regional multilateralism - normative frameworks for economic and security relations—have come through largely unaffected by the crisis. The prime objective of regional policies—internal security—has ensured a continued priority for economic growth and open liberal economic development; and the priority to settling disputes by peaceful means has not changed. Some weaknesses will continue—ASEAN enlargement for example— but these are largely not related to the crisis. Regionalist impulses have been strengthened by the crisis, but are likely to continue to remain supportive of the global institutional framework. A heightened sense of a need for increased regional representation in the unrepresentative nature of global institutions has emerged.; no

The global economic crisis that began in 2008 threatened to erase years of progress in developing countries. In response, the World Bank Group increased lending to unprecedented levels. The World Bank posted a large increase in middle income countries (MICs), and a much smaller one in low income countries (LICs). The International Finance Corporation (IFC) focused on trade finance, mainly in LICs. Its new business initially fell in MICs, rebounding only in late fiscal 2010. The Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA) concentrated on guarantees in Eastern Europe. Analytic and advisory work helped inform government and private sector responses to the crisis. This report presents an initial real-time evaluation of the readiness, relevance, quality-at-entry, short-term results, and likely sustainability of the Bank Group response from the start of the crisis through fiscal 2010. This evaluation builds on a 2008 Independent Evaluation Group (IEG) assessment of Bank Group interventions during past crises and draws extensively on 11 country case studies and field visits. Given the short time since the crisis response started...

The paper uses repeated cross-sections of Bulgaria's household survey data (1995, 1997, 2001, and 2003) and a comparable list of durable goods to investigate the dynamics and distribution of durable goods over time, including during the economic crisis of 1996-1997 and the subsequent period of relatively robust economic growth leading up to European Union membership. It examines the dynamics of the ownership of durable goods by wealth classes, geographic locations, and various ethnic groups, including the Roma. In the aggregate, there was convergence between the poorest and the richest classes in the ownership of durable goods between 1995 and 2003, with the poorest class making a significant gain between 2001 and 2003 after having lost some ground between 1995 and 2001. There was also convergence in the ownership of durable goods between urban and rural residents. However, there appear to be some diverging tendencies between Bulgarians and the minority ethnic groups, particularly in the ownership of relatively more expensive goods such as personal computers and cars.

The current economic crisis and food price increase may have a widespread impact on the nutritional and health status of populations, especially in the developing world. Gains in child survival over the past few decades are likely to be threatened and millennium development goals will be harder to achieve. Beyond starvation, which is one of the causes of death in famine situations, there are numerous nutritional pathways by which childhood mortality can increase. These include increases in childhood wasting and stunting, intrauterine growth restriction, and micronutrient deficiencies such as that of vitamin A, iron, and zinc when faced with a food crisis and decreased food availability. These pathways are elucidated and described. Although estimates of the impact of the current crisis on child mortality are yet to be made, data from previous economic crises provide evidence of an increase in childhood mortality that we review. The current situation also emphasizes that there are vast segments of the world's population living in a situation of chronic food insecurity that are likely to be disproportionately affected by an economic crisis. Nutritional and health surveillance data are urgently needed in such populations to monitor both the impacts of a crisis and of interventions. Addressing the nutritional needs of children and women in response to the present crisis is urgent. But...

This article examines student mobility in Portugal, with the aim of understanding what prompts the decision to leave, with particular emphasis upon the weight of factors associated with the on-going economic crisis. Findings from a survey of 400 Lisbon students conducted during 2014 are used to demonstrate the popularity of the idea of moving abroad after the completion of present course of study, with 35% indicating an intention to leave Portugal. Regression analysis confirms that factors associated with the economic crisis have a bearing upon mobility decisions, the most significant predictor being negative impact on personal well-being.