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Export Surges : The Power of a Competitive Currency

Freund, Caroline; Pierola, Martha Denisse
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.48%
How can countries stimulate and sustain strong export growth? To answer this question, the authors examine 92 episodes of export surges, defined as significant increases in manufacturing export growth that are sustained for at least seven years. They find that export surges in developing countries tend to be preceded by a large real depreciation-which leaves the exchange rate significantly undervalued-and a reduction in exchange rate volatility. In contrast, in developed countries, the role of the exchange rate is less pronounced. The authors examine why the exchange rate is so important in developing countries and find that the depreciation leads to a significant reallocation of resources in the export sector. In particular, depreciation generates more entries into new export products and new markets, and the percentage of new entries that fail after one year declines. These new products and new markets are important, accounting for 25 percent of export growth during the surge in developing countries. The authors argue that maintaining a competitive currency leads firms to expand the product and market space for exports...

Managing Openness and Volatility : The Role of Export Diversification

Haddad, Mona; Lim, Jamus Jerome; Saborowski, Christian
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.27%
As developing countries look to embrace an outward-oriented growth strategy, some may be concerned about the possibility that increased openness will be accompanied by increased volatility. However, although a more open economy may face increased volatility in its terms of trade, openness confers diversification benefits. In this note, authors argue that export diversification is a key mitigating factor for the total effect of openness on volatility. More specifically, authors show that most developing countries fall on the "good" side of a diversification threshold, where they are likely to experience less volatility as they pursue a strategy of greater openness.

Exports, Export Destinations, and Skills

World Bank
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.31%
This paper explores the links between exports, export destinations and skill utilization by firms. The authors identify two mechanisms behind these links, which we integrate into a unified theory of export destinations and skills. First, exporting to high-income countries requires quality upgrades that are skill-intensive (Verhoogen, 2008). Second, exporting in general, and exporting to high-income destinations in particular, requires services like distribution, transportation, and advertising, activities that are also intensive in skilled labor (Matsuyama, 2007). Both theories suggest a skill-bias in export destinations: firms that export to high-income destinations hire more skills and pay higher wages than firms that export to middle-income countries or that sells domestically. The authors test the theory using a panel of manufacturing Argentine firms. The data cover the period 1998-2000 and thus span the Brazilian currency devaluation of 1999. The authors use the exogenous changes in exports and export destinations brought about by this devaluation in a major export partner to identify the causal effect of exporting and of exporting to high-income countries on skill utilization. The authors fine that Argentine firms exporting to high-income countries hired a higher proportion of skilled workers and paid higher average wages than other exporters (to non high-income countries) and domestic firms. Instead...

How to Sustain Export Dynamism by Reducing Duality in the Dominican Republic

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Relatório
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.5%
This report analyzes export competitiveness in the Dominican Republic drawing from the Trade Competitiveness Diagnostic methodology (Farole and Reis, 2012). Dominican exports fare well in terms of performance, sophistication, and survival in Special Economic Zones. Three main challenges are identified: 1) quality issues and rejection of agro exports in the US border; 2) the role of Special Economic Zones in the new decade and the lack of backward linkages; and 3) excessive concentration in terms of markets that is not addressed by a fragmented institutional setup.

Export-share requirements and technology diffusion

Khaodhiar, Apiradee
Fonte: Universidade Rice Publicador: Universidade Rice
Tipo: Thesis; Text Formato: 171 p.; application/pdf
ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.68%
Export-share requirements have emerged as one of the most contentious issues in recent international trade policy debate between industrial and developing countries. This dissertation attempts to shed light on this debate by examining whether export-share requirements facilitate technology diffusion and entry promotion in developing countries. To that end, I utilize two dynamic models of duopoly to capture the effects of the policy imposed at different stage of competition. The first model portrays the case when the host country government imposes an export-share requirement on the foreign multinational after the firm has already installed certain production technology at its subsidiary's plant. The second model describes the case in which the foreign multinational knows about export-share requirement before choosing its production technology. In both models, I find that the effectiveness of an export-share requirement varies with its intensity. Stringent export-share requirement is shown to promote technology diffusion while a rather weak one results in the opposite. On the contrary, for the purpose of entry facilitation, stringent export-share requirement cannot completely eliminate entry deterrence options of the foreign multinational whereas the weak one succeeds in doing so. Thus...

Pathways to African Export Sustainability

Brenton, Paul; Cadot, Olivier; Pierola, Martha Denisse
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication; Publications & Research :: Publication
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.33%
This report provides tentative leads toward such policy prescriptions, based on an overview of the empirical evidence. Chapter one sets the stage by putting Africa's export-survival performance into perspective and proposing a framework that will guide the interpretation of empirical evidence throughout the report. Chapter two covers country-level determinants of export sustainability at origin and destination, including the exporting country's business environment. Chapter three explores some of the firm-level evidence on what drives export sustainability, including uncertainty, incomplete contracts, learning, and networks. Finally, chapter four offers tentative policy implications. The main conclusions from this overview of the causes of Africa's low export sustainability should be taken with caution both because of the complexity of the issue and because of the very fragmentary evidence on which the overview is based. The author should be more cautious in drawing policy implications, as hasty policy prescriptions are the most common trap into which reports of this kind can fall. A first...

Serbia Country Economic Memorandum : Productivity and Exports

Sestovic, Lazar; Miovic, Peter
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Brief; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.41%
In order to have both dynamic and better balanced growth, Serbia needs to rely more on exports. In the last decade, Serbia's growth has depended primarily on demand that was fueled by excessive debt finance. In the future, the Serbian economy would be better served by increasing its reliance on exports as a new, potentially powerful source of growth. Serbia's export share of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is currently 25 percent, but that figure should be closer to 50-75 percent, considering that all European Union (EU) comparator countries1 have export shares of GDP of 60-80 percent. Some sectors of the economy are already better positioned than others to export. For example, sectors in the traditional export base of Serbia, such as food and some chemical products still have vast potential for growth. Agriculture is widely considered to have significant potential for improvement. Although Serbia has recently become a net food exporter, these exports could be substantially higher. The Serbian government's number one task is to accelerate reforms to create an environment that is highly conducive to export-led growth. Serbia will need to fundamentally alter its growth model in order to compete effectively in world markets. The past model of relying on excessive inflows of capital and credit coupled with a consumption boom has run its course in all European countries...

Manufacturing Export Competitiveness in Kenya : A Policy Note on Revitalizing and Diversifying Kenya's Manufacturing Sector

Farole, Thomas; Mukim, Megha
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.61%
This note is a background study to assess policy options to improve competitiveness of Kenya's manufacturing sector, with a specific focus on exports. The focus is on export performance in the manufacturing sector overall and drawing on analysis of four specific manufacturing sectors - apparel, wood furniture, chemicals, and agriculture industries-which are used as examples from which to generalize about wider competitiveness issues in Kenya's manufacturing sector. Kenya's Vision 2030 aspires to achieve middle income status by 2030, which will require sustaining an annual average Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate of 10 percent. Restarting the export sector growth engine will be imperative to achieve these targets. In particular, manufacturing exports will be critical because of their impact on growth, employment and economy-wide linkages. Kenya's manufacturing sector exhibits several strengths. Its global share in exports increased over the last 20 years, and it enjoys a strong position with regard to exports to the regional EAC market...

Determinants of Export Growth at the Extensive and Intensive Margins : Evidence from Product and Firm-level Data for Pakistan

Reis, José Guilherme; Taglioni, Daria
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.49%
As globalization progresses and investment is mobile, it is ever more important for policy makers to understand drivers of growth and exports at the micro-level: Which products are being produced and exported? Which firms populate the domestic economy? Are they successful in exporting? How are firms affected by exogenous shocks and policy intervention? Through the use of descriptive statistics and econometric analysis, this paper assesses the trade competitiveness of Pakistan using micro-data. The case of Pakistan is interesting since the country's recent trade policy has reverted to a protectionist path since the mid-2000s and trade performance is stagnating, as indicated by a decrease in its trade-to-gross domestic product ratio over the past decade and low levels of sophistication of exports. The main findings of the paper are the following. Like many other countries, Pakistan posts a high concentration of exports in the hands of a limited number of large exporters. The dominance of few exporters has increased over time and it seems associated with the changes in trade policy. Low rates of product innovation and experimentation and a low ability of the Pakistani export sector to enter into new higher growth sectors are other features emerging from the data. All in all...

Export Diversi cation in a Transitioning Economy : The Case of Syria

Lim, Jamus Jerome; Saborowski, Christian
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.34%
How does the process of export diversification play out in a transitioning economy, especially in light of government policy aimed at trade liberalization? This paper examines this question by considering a directed policy effort by Syria -- an economy transitioning from both economic centralization and resource dependence -- to liberalize its trade in 2001. In addition to documenting the patterns of diversification at the aggregate level since the implementation of the policy, we also examine factors that are related to diversification at the sectoral level. Our findings suggest that, while Syria has achieved reasonably rapid export diversification, this may to a large extent be the result of structural transformations in the economy, and that further consolidation of diversification gains may require continued policy reform along the lines of strengthening Syria's weak institutional and business environment.

Monitoring Export Vulnerability to Changes in Growth Rates of Major Global Markets

Hollweg, Claire H.; Lederman, Daniel; Reyes, José-Daniel
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.47%
Interest in assessing the impacts on developing countries of changes in major markets' economic performance has risen in tandem with global economic uncertainty over short- and medium-term growth prospects. This paper proposes a methodology to measure the vulnerability of a country's exports to fluctuations in the economic activity of foreign markets. Export vulnerability depends first on the overall level of export exposure, measured as the share of exports in gross domestic product, and second on the sensitivity of exports to fluctuations in foreign gross domestic product. The authors capture this sensitivity by estimating origin-destination specific elasticities of exports with respect to changes in foreign gross domestic product using a gravity model of trade. Furthermore, export vulnerability is computed separately for commodities and differentiated products. This methodology is applied to six developing countries, one from each World Bank region, selected to be otherwise similar yet differ in terms of the level of exposure to major global markets as well as the product composition of their export basket. Although the results suggest differences in elasticity estimates across regions as well as product categories, the principal source of international heterogeneity in export vulnerability results from differences in export exposure to global markets. This result calls for developing countries to diversify their export markets rather than shielding themselves from international markets...

Antidumping, Retaliation Threats, and Export Prices

Avsar, Veysel
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.3%
Utilizing four-dimensional (firm-product-destination-year) Brazilian firm-level export data, the paper shows that antidumping (AD) duties result in a significant and dramatic increase in the unit values of the products that firms export to duty-imposing countries. Furthermore, it examines the effect of potential (retaliatory) AD duties on the unit price of the firms' shipments. The findings suggest that AD activities in Brazil lead Brazilian exporting firms to increase their unit export prices for the named industries' products to decrease the dumping margin and avoid the threat of retaliation by the target countries.

Export Superstars

Freund, Caroline; Pierola, Martha Denisse
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.48%
This paper shows that the top 1 percent of exporters critically shape trade patterns, using firm-level data from 32 countries. In particular, variation in average firm size (the intensive margin) explains over two thirds of the variation in the sector distribution of exports across countries, the remaining share is explained by variation in the number of firms (the extensive margin). Variation in average firm size across sectors is largely driven by variation in the sectoral distribution of exports from the top 1 percent of firms in a country -- export superstars. In contrast, the sectoral distribution of exports from the remaining 99 percent of firms is more similar across countries, and the distribution of the total number of firms across sectors is very similar across countries. This paper also finds that current export superstars typically entered the export market relatively large, reached the top 1 percent after less than three years of exporting, and account for more than half of a country's total exports...

Bosnia and Herzegovina’s Surprising Export Performance : Back to the Past in a New Veil but Will It Last?

Kaminski, Bartlomiej; Ng, Francis
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.55%
Bosnia and Herzegovina's industrial restructuring, as seen through the lenses of foreign trade performance and its sustainability, has taken off. Bosnia and Herzegovina s exports have displayed strong dynamics outstripping the pace of growth of exports in almost each year over 1997-2007 combined with the shift to higher value added exportables. Although its performance during the period 1996-2000 following the end of war in late 1995 was not surprising, given relatively low foreign direct investment inflows and weaknesses in the investment climate, its subsequent export performance has come as a surprise. Industrial restructuring, as revealed in the pattern of exports, consisted in rebuilding and modernizing the pre-independence industrial base built around wood products, metalworking, clothing, and automotive products. Although exports still remain relatively low in terms of both per capita and gross domestic product in comparison with other Balkan economies, there has been significant change in their composition...

The Anatomy of China's Export Growth

Amiti, Mary; Freund, Caroline
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.57%
Decomposing China's real export growth, of over 500 percent since 1992, reveals a number of interesting findings. First, China's export structure changed dramatically, with growing export shares in electronics and machinery and a decline in agriculture and apparel. Second, despite the shift into these more sophisticated products, the skill content of China's manufacturing exports remained unchanged, once processing trade is excluded. Third, export growth was accompanied by increasing specialization and was mainly accounted for by high export growth of existing products (the intensive margin) rather than in new varieties (the extensive margin). Fourth, consistent with an increased world supply of existing varieties, China's export prices to the United States fell by an average of 1.5 percent per year between 1997 and 2005, while export prices of these products from the rest of the world to the United States increased by 0.4 percent annually over the same period.

Vietnam : Export Performance in 1999 and Beyond

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.58%
Changes in trade policies have been an essential component of the "doi moi" policy implemented by the Government of Vietnam since 1986. Over the years, most export quotas have been lifted and export taxes have been reduced to generally low levels. In addition, export activities by the private sector (both domestic and foreign) have been increasingly encouraged, thus breaking the trade monopoly of a small number of state-owned enterprises. These reforms -together with sound macroeconomic management- have led to a rapid export and import growth. The structure of exports also changed. During the 1990s, Vietnam started to exploit its comparative advantage in labor-intensive manufactures. Export growth was led by light manufactures, dominated by the garment and footwear sectors. Also remarkable, despite the shrinking share of agricultural goods in total exports, was the strong rise in the volume of rice exports. In only few years Vietnam turned from being a net rice importer into the world's second largest exporter. The Asian crisis has interrupted Vietnam's trade expansion. In 1998...

Clothing and Export Diversification : Still a Route to Growth for Low-Income Countries?

Brenton, Paul; Hoppe, Mombert
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.3%
Can the clothing sector be a driver of export diversification and growth for today's low-income countries as it was in the past for countries that have graduated into middle income? This paper assesses this issue taking into account key changes to the market for clothing: the emergence of India and especially China as exporting countries; the rise of global production chains; the removal of quotas from the global trading regime but the continued presence of high tariffs and substantial trade preferences; the increasing importance of large buyers in developed countries and their concerns regarding risk and reputation; and the increasing importance of time in defining sourcing decisions. To assess the importance of the factors shaping the global clothing market, the authors estimate a gravity model to explain jointly the propensity to export clothing and the magnitude of exports from developing countries to the E U and US markets. This analysis identifies the quality of governance as an important determinant of sourcing decisions and that there appears to be a general bias against sourcing apparel from African countries...

Beyond Tariffs and Quotas : Why Don't African Manufacturers Export More?

Clarke, George R.G.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.54%
There has been much concern about Africa's recent export performance. Even though tariff and non-tariff barriers to trade have been falling, Africa's share of world exports has declined and most African countries remain highly dependent on a narrow range of primary commodities for export earnings. The author looks at factors that affect the export performance of manufacturing enterprises in eight African countries. In addition to enterprise characteristics (such as size, ownership, and education of the manager), policy-related variables also affect export performance. Manufacturing enterprises are less likely to export in countries with restrictive trade and customs regulation and poor customs administration. In contrast, there is less evidence that the quality of domestic transportation infrastructure has a large impact on export performance. Although the coefficient on this variable is negative, it is statistically insignificant in most model specifications.

Export Profiles of Small Landlocked Countries : A Case Study Focusing on their Implications for Lesotho

Ng, Francis; Yeats, Alexander
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.56%
World Bank demographic and country characteristic statistics identify 16 small landlocked countries that are similar to Lesotho. The authors attempt to determine what useful policy information can be derived from the recent trade performance of these "comparators." Among questions they pose are whether the trade profiles of the comparators suggest potentially promising export ventures for Lesotho, do they indicate directions for a geographic diversification of trade, or do they suggest products in which Lesotho might acquire a comparative advantage. The authors also use U.S. partner country statistics to evaluate Lesotho's export performance in this major market. The U.S. data indicate Lesotho lost competitive export shares for about three-quarters of its major clothing products during the late 1990s. The data show these losses were primarily to the North America Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) countries in the Caribbean. Lesotho was competing on basically equal terms and did not fare well. But it is generally held that the most efficient clothing exporters are in the Far East and not Latin America. Lesotho's difficulties in competing with the latter have worrisome implications for its ability to compete with East Asian exporters when the Multifiber Arrangement is phased out. The comparative advantage profiles of the landlocked comparator countries suggest Lesotho's options for a greatly needed export diversification may be wider than is assumed. One or more of the comparator countries developed a comparative advantage in 110 four-digit SITC (non-clothing) manufactures which are generally labor-intensive in production. Many of these goods should also be suitable for production and export by Lesotho. International production sharing often involves the importation and further assembly of components in developing countries. This activity can significantly broaden the range of new products in which a country can diversify. Statistics show many landlocked comparator countries have moved into component assembly operations...

Gone for good? Subsidies with export share requirements in China: 2002-2013

Defever, Fabrice; Riaño, Alejandro
Fonte: Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics and Political Science Publicador: Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics and Political Science
Tipo: Monograph; NonPeerReviewed Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em /07/2014 EN; EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.41%
This paper presents a simple model of subsidies with export share requirements (ESR) in a heterogeneous firm environment. A two-country general equilibrium version of the model with a single 100% ESR is calibrated using firm-level data from the 2002 wave of the Business Environment and Enterprise Performance Survey collected by the World Bank for China. The calibrated model is used to gauge the change in subsidies with ESR that is consistent with the fall in the share of ‘pure exporters’, firms exporting all their output, observed in China, from 25.7% in 2002 to 11.1% in 2013. Our results indicate that a 6.9% reduction in the ad-valorem subsidy rate available to firms that export all their output is consistent with the observed fall in their share of exporting firms. Expenditure in subsidies (as a share of value-added) falls by 66% and welfare in China increases by 1.76% while real income in the rest of the world falls by 0.59%.