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Export Discoveries, Diversification and Barriers to Entry

Klinger, Bailey; Lederman, Daniel
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.35%
The literature on the relationship between economic diversification and development has grown rapidly in recent years, partly due to the surprising finding that diversification rises with gross domestic product per capita up to a certain point. Export diversification along the extensive margin is inextricable from the introduction of new export products. The authors test the hypothesis that the threat of imitation inhibits the introduction of new exports -- export discoveries -- under the assumption that the intensive and extensive margins of exports are correlated within broad country-industry groups. Econometric evidence from panel-data techniques that are appropriate for count data (the number of discoveries) suggests that discoveries within countries and industries rise with the growth of exports along the intensive margin (relative to the growth of non-export gross domestic product) but the magnitude of this partial correlation increases with domestic barriers to entry and with customs delays in exporting. However...

Entrepreneurship and the Extensive Margin in Export Growth : A Microeconomic Accounting of Costa Rica’s Export Growth during 1997–2007

Lederman, Daniel; Rodríguez-Clare, Andrés; Yi Xu, Daniel
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.38%
The literature on the correlation between exports and economic development runs deep into the history of economic thought and permeates policy debates. This paper studies the microeconomic structure of export growth in Costa Rica, with special emphasis on the extensive margin of trade, encompassing new exporting firms, new products, and new export markets, as well as the unit values of new versus incumbent products. The data suggest that few new firms survive the test of exporting -- more than 40 percent of firms exit export activities after one year -- and this firm turnover is associated with a steady deterioration of export unit values (prices). Furthermore, most new export products are associated with product switching by incumbent exporting firms. The typical new product introduced by incumbent firms tended to be priced at about 90 percent of the unit values of incumbent products. In contrast, the usual suspected obstacles to export growth, such as the inability of small firms to enter exporting activities or to grow their exports...

What Explains the Low Survival Rate of Developing Country Export Flows?

Brenton, Paul; Saborowski, Christian; von Uexkull, Erik
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.35%
Successful export growth and diversification require not only entry into new export products and markets, but also the survival and growth of export flows. This paper uses a detailed, cross-country dataset of product level bilateral export flows to illustrate that exporting is an extremely perilous activity and especially so in low-income countries. The authors find that unobserved individual heterogeneity in product-level export flow data prevails despite controlling for a wide range of observed country and product characteristics. This questions previous studies that have used the Cox proportional hazards model to model export survival. The authors estimate a Prentice-Gloeckler model, amended with a gamma mixture distribution summarizing unobserved individual heterogeneity. The empirical results confirm the significance of a range of products as well as country-specific factors in determining the survival of export flows. From a policy perspective, an interesting finding is the importance of learning-by-doing for export survival: experience with exporting the same product to other markets or different products to the same market are found to strongly increase the chance of export survival. A better understanding of such learning effects could substantially improve the effectiveness of export promotion strategies.

Export Surges : The Power of a Competitive Currency

Freund, Caroline; Pierola, Martha Denisse
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.43%
How can countries stimulate and sustain strong export growth? To answer this question, the authors examine 92 episodes of export surges, defined as significant increases in manufacturing export growth that are sustained for at least seven years. They find that export surges in developing countries tend to be preceded by a large real depreciation-which leaves the exchange rate significantly undervalued-and a reduction in exchange rate volatility. In contrast, in developed countries, the role of the exchange rate is less pronounced. The authors examine why the exchange rate is so important in developing countries and find that the depreciation leads to a significant reallocation of resources in the export sector. In particular, depreciation generates more entries into new export products and new markets, and the percentage of new entries that fail after one year declines. These new products and new markets are important, accounting for 25 percent of export growth during the surge in developing countries. The authors argue that maintaining a competitive currency leads firms to expand the product and market space for exports...

Watching More Than the Discovery Channel : Export Cycles and Diversification in Development

Brenton, Paul; Newfarmer, Richard
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.41%
This paper examines the export performance of 99 countries over 1995-2004 to understand the relative roles of export growth through "discovery" of new products and growth during post-discovery phases of the export product cycle -- acceleration and maturation -- in existing markets and expansion into new geographic markets. The authors find that expanding existing products in existing markets (growth at the intensive margin) has greater weight in export growth than diversification into new products and new geographic markets (growth at the extensive margin). Moreover, growth into new geographic markets appears to be more important than discovery of new export products in explaining export growth. Of particular importance is whether an exporting country succeeds in reaching more national markets that are already importing the product it makes. This geographic index of market penetration is a powerful explanatory variable of export performance. This suggests that governments should not focus solely or even primarily on the discovery channel...

China, India, and the Future of the World Economy : Fierce Competition or Shared Growth?

Dimaranan, Betina; Ianchovichina, Elena; Martin, Will
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.4%
Although both China and India are labor-abundant and dependant on manufactures, their export mixes are very different. Only one product-refined petroleum-appears in the top 25 products for both countries, and services exports are roughly twice as important for India as for China, which is much better integrated into global production networks. Even assuming India also begins to integrate into global production chains and expands exports of manufactures, there seems to be opportunity for rapid growth in both countries. Accelerated growth through efficiency improvements in China and India, especially in their high-tech industries, will intensify competition in global markets leading to contraction of the manufacturing sectors in many countries. Improvement in the range and quality of exports from China and India has the potential to create substantial welfare benefits for the world, and for China and India, and to act as a powerful offset to the terms-of-trade losses otherwise associated with rapid export growth. However...

Entrepreneurship and the Extensive Margin in Export Growth : A Microeconomic Accounting of Costa Rica’s Export Growth during 1997-2007

Lederman, Daniel; Rodríguez-Clare, Andrés; Yi Xu, Daniel
Fonte: World Bank Publicador: World Bank
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.34%
Successful exporting countries are often seen as successful economies. This paper studies the role of new exporting entrepreneurs – defined as firms that became exporters – in determining export growth in a fast growing and export oriented middle-income country i.e., Costa Rica during 1997-2007. It provides a detailed description of the contribution of export entrepreneurs in the short and long run, and comparing the observed patterns with an emerging literature on the role of the “extensive” margin in international trade. On a year-by-year basis, the rate of firm turnover into and out of exporting is high, but exit rates decline rapidly with age (i.e., the number of years the firm has been exporting). On average, about 30 percent of firms in each year tend to exit export activities, and a similar percentage of firms enter. The exiting and entering firms tend to be significantly smaller than incumbent firms in terms of export value (e.g., entrants export about 30 percent less on average than incumbent firms). These findings are consistent with existing evidence for other middle income Latin American countries. However, in the long run new product-firm combinations (i.e., product-firm combinations not present in 1997) account for almost 60 percent of the value of exports in 2007. Surviving new exporters actively adopted new products (for the firm...

The Real Exchange Rate and Export Growth : Are Services Different?

Eichengreen, Barry; Gupta, Poonam
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.37%
This paper considers the determinants of exports of modern services and traditional services. It considers the growth of export volumes as well as export surges, that is, the periods of rapid sustained export growth. It asks whether the determinants of export growth rates and export surges differ between merchandise, traditional services, and modern services and whether developing countries are different. It confirm the importance of the real exchange rate for export growth. The paper finds that the effect of the real exchange rate is even stronger for exports of services than for exports of goods and that it is especially strong for exports of modern services. The results suggest that in the course of their development, as developing countries shift from exporting commodities and merchandise to exporting traditional and modern services, appropriate policies toward the real exchange rate become even more important.

South Africa Economic Update : Focus on Export Competitiveness

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.43%
In its National Development Plan 2030 and its New Growth Path (2011), South Africa identifies the export sector as an engine for faster, more inclusive, and job-intensive growth. The National Development Plan is targeting export volume growth of 6 percent a year, to achieve an annual increase in real Gross Domestic Product, or GDP growth of about 5.5 percent and to help generate 11 million new jobs by 2030. Despite successes in some subsectors, South Africa will need to greatly improve its export performance to meet these targets. The report highlights opportunities for growth, particularly with Sub-Saharan Africa being the largest market for non-mineral exports. It also explores strategic directions that can ignite export growth and help South Africa realize its goals of creating jobs and reducing poverty and inequality.

Entrepreneurship and the Extensive Margin in Export Growth : A Microeconomic Accounting of Costa Rica’s Export Growth during 1997-2007

Lederman, Daniel; Rodríguez-Clare, Andrés; Yi Xu, Daniel
Fonte: World Bank Publicador: World Bank
Tipo: Journal Article; Journal Article
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.34%
Successful exporting countries are often seen as successful economies. This paper studies the role of new exporting entrepreneurs – defined as firms that became exporters – in determining export growth in a fast growing and export oriented middle-income country i.e., Costa Rica during 1997-2007. It provides a detailed description of the contribution of export entrepreneurs in the short and long run, and comparing the observed patterns with an emerging literature on the role of the “extensive” margin in international trade. On a year-by-year basis, the rate of firm turnover into and out of exporting is high, but exit rates decline rapidly with age (i.e., the number of years the firm has been exporting). On average, about 30 percent of firms in each year tend to exit export activities, and a similar percentage of firms enter. The exiting and entering firms tend to be significantly smaller than incumbent firms in terms of export value (e.g., entrants export about 30 percent less on average than incumbent firms). These findings are consistent with existing evidence for other middle income Latin American countries. However, in the long run new product-firm combinations (i.e., product-firm combinations not present in 1997) account for almost 60 percent of the value of exports in 2007. Surviving new exporters actively adopted new products (for the firm...

Brazilian export growth and divergence in the tropics during the nineteenth century

Absell, Christopher David; Tena Junguito, Antonio
Fonte: Universidade Carlos III de Madrid Publicador: Universidade Carlos III de Madrid
Tipo: info:eu-repo/semantics/draft; info:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaper
Publicado em 01/05/2015 ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.21%
The objective of this paper is to reappraise both the accuracy of the official export statistics and the conventional narrative of Brazilian export growth during the period immediately following independence. We undertake an accuracy test of the official values of Brazilian export statistics and find evidence of considerable under-valuation. Once corrected, during the postindependence decades (1821-1849) Brazil's current exports represented a larger share of its economy and its constant growth is found to be more dynamic than any other period of the nineteenth century. We posit that this dynamism was related to an exogenous institutional shock in the form of British West Indies slave emancipation that afforded Brazil a competitive advantage.

China in the middle of the East Asian Crisis : Export growth and the exchange rate

Yang, Yongzheng
Fonte: Universidade Nacional da Austrália Publicador: Universidade Nacional da Austrália
Tipo: Working/Technical Paper Formato: 95146 bytes; application/pdf
EN_AU
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.14%
In this short presentation, I will try to assess the external conditions facing China's export sector. The purpose of this analysis is to shed some light on the prospect for china's export growth in the short to medium run. What will happen to exports in the next year or so will largely determine the yuan exchange rate. We will focus on the economic fundamentals for the yuan exchange rate and its likley path in the near future.

Bangladesh : Growth and Export Competitiveness

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Foreign Trade, FDI, and Capital Flows Study; Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.41%
Bangladesh's growth over the past two decades or more, in terms of developing-country standards, has been notable. Such record of progress is one guide to the country's potential to grow, and to score well in world markets. To this end, i.e., to make the most of its export opportunities on a changing international playing field, Bangladesh needs to follow a strategic game plan, invest in infrastructure, technology and skills, streamline policies, and improve quality and safety standards. This report describes actions that can untie the hands of the country's exporters, and put solid progress within their grasp. The concrete recommendations made in the report for improving export competitiveness, could serve as a critical basis for making the needed revisions in the two pivotal trade policy instruments of the Government --Import Policy Order 2003-06, and Export Policy Order 2003-06 -- in light of the current global trading environment. The report looks at the sources of competitive disadvantage, and stipulates macroeconomic stability is, and must remain the strategic foundation for all of Bangladesh's competitive prospects. On economic governance, the results of this study's breakthrough use of a powerful analytical tool -- integrated value-chain analyses (IVCA) -- pinpoint the price exacted by obstacles to export growth...

Determinants of Export Growth at the Extensive and Intensive Margins : Evidence from Product and Firm-level Data for Pakistan

Reis, José Guilherme; Taglioni, Daria
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.37%
As globalization progresses and investment is mobile, it is ever more important for policy makers to understand drivers of growth and exports at the micro-level: Which products are being produced and exported? Which firms populate the domestic economy? Are they successful in exporting? How are firms affected by exogenous shocks and policy intervention? Through the use of descriptive statistics and econometric analysis, this paper assesses the trade competitiveness of Pakistan using micro-data. The case of Pakistan is interesting since the country's recent trade policy has reverted to a protectionist path since the mid-2000s and trade performance is stagnating, as indicated by a decrease in its trade-to-gross domestic product ratio over the past decade and low levels of sophistication of exports. The main findings of the paper are the following. Like many other countries, Pakistan posts a high concentration of exports in the hands of a limited number of large exporters. The dominance of few exporters has increased over time and it seems associated with the changes in trade policy. Low rates of product innovation and experimentation and a low ability of the Pakistani export sector to enter into new higher growth sectors are other features emerging from the data. All in all...

Export Entrepreneurship and Trade Structure in Latin America during Good and Bad Times

Fernandes, Ana M.; Lederman, Daniel; Gutierrez-Rocha, Mario
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.39%
The authors use a new dataset on export transactions for a large set of Latin American and Caribbean and comparator countries to assess the extent of "export entrepreneurship" during periods of fast export growth (2005-2007) and depressed external demand (2008-2009). Export entrepreneurship is equated with the extensive margin of exports, namely the advent of new exporting firms, new export products, and new export market destinations. The main findings are: (1) annual exporter entry, exit, and survival rates in Latin America and the Caribbean are quite similar to what is observed in other countries, and entry rates across sectors are quite similar but survival rates appear to be highest in agriculture; (2) the relative size of entrants into export markets (relative to incumbents) tended to be lower for natural resource-abundant countries during 2005-2007, but less so during the crisis years of 2008-2009; (3) entry rates tend to be lower in sectors in which a country has revealed comparative advantage...

Export Growth and Diversification : The Case of Peru

Illescas, Javier; Jaramillo, C. Felipe
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.37%
The rapid growth of exports since the early 1990s is a central feature in the extraordinary rise of Peru's economy in recent years. This study puts a lens on this export growth episode, with special attention to two issues. The first one is the role of international price levels as well as export volumes in explaining this growth. The second one is whether Peru has seen a diversification of its exports during this growth episode. The empirical analysis finds that although the increase in international mineral prices has exerted a significant impact in recent years, much of the growth of Peru's export revenues has also been related to an increase in volumes. This finding applies to traditional and non- traditional exports, although the importance of volumes is more predominant for the latter. The analysis does not reveal a trend toward greater diversification of Peru's exports since 1993. On the contrary, some of the evidence suggests that the rises in price and volumes in the mining components could be leading to greater concentration. Nonetheless...

The Anatomy of China's Export Growth

Amiti, Mary; Freund, Caroline
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.41%
Decomposing China's real export growth, of over 500 percent since 1992, reveals a number of interesting findings. First, China's export structure changed dramatically, with growing export shares in electronics and machinery and a decline in agriculture and apparel. Second, despite the shift into these more sophisticated products, the skill content of China's manufacturing exports remained unchanged, once processing trade is excluded. Third, export growth was accompanied by increasing specialization and was mainly accounted for by high export growth of existing products (the intensive margin) rather than in new varieties (the extensive margin). Fourth, consistent with an increased world supply of existing varieties, China's export prices to the United States fell by an average of 1.5 percent per year between 1997 and 2005, while export prices of these products from the rest of the world to the United States increased by 0.4 percent annually over the same period.

Vietnam : Export Performance in 1999 and Beyond

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.41%
Changes in trade policies have been an essential component of the "doi moi" policy implemented by the Government of Vietnam since 1986. Over the years, most export quotas have been lifted and export taxes have been reduced to generally low levels. In addition, export activities by the private sector (both domestic and foreign) have been increasingly encouraged, thus breaking the trade monopoly of a small number of state-owned enterprises. These reforms -together with sound macroeconomic management- have led to a rapid export and import growth. The structure of exports also changed. During the 1990s, Vietnam started to exploit its comparative advantage in labor-intensive manufactures. Export growth was led by light manufactures, dominated by the garment and footwear sectors. Also remarkable, despite the shrinking share of agricultural goods in total exports, was the strong rise in the volume of rice exports. In only few years Vietnam turned from being a net rice importer into the world's second largest exporter. The Asian crisis has interrupted Vietnam's trade expansion. In 1998...

Micro Dynamics of Turkey's Export Boom in the 2000s

Cebeci, Tolga; Fernandes, Ana M.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.43%
This paper examines the microeconomics behind the dramatic export boom experienced by Turkey during the 2000s. Using disaggregated customs data covering the universe of export transactions for Turkey during the period 2002-2011, it characterizes firm-level dynamics in the export sector and decomposes export growth at the aggregate, sector, and destination market levels to identify the role of firm turnover, destination turnover, and product turnover. The paper shows that in the short-run, aggregate export growth is dominated by growth in continuous exporters, and for these, growth is dominated by exports to their continued destinations and of their continued products. However, the observed high degree of churning across firms, destinations, and products accounts in the long run for a substantial part of Turkey's export growth. The patterns of micro-dynamics of export growth are verified across sectors and across groups of destination markets with some exceptions regarding exports to new emerging markets where net entry by Turkish-based exporters plays a more critical role for long-run growth.

Russian Federation - Export Diversification through Competition and Innovation : A Policy Agenda

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Other Financial Sector Study; Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.4%
Russia's exports became further dominated by petroleum and natural gas over the last decade. The sector experienced double-digit annual export growth in the last decade and represented almost 65 percent of Russia's exports value in 2009 a product of higher commodity prices and higher export volumes. Export growth rates of the non-oil and gas sector were also notable. Such industries as machinery, electronics, transportation equipment and chemicals reached a combined growth rate in export value of 10 percent in the last decade. This more positive comparison, however, hides relevant structural limitations in Russia's trade performance. Moreover, Russia's revealed comparative advantage seems concentrated in the 'periphery' of the product-space map, which may limit the potential for export diversification. This includes industries such as raw materials (26 products) and forestry (11 products) out of a total of 97 identified products. (At the center of the product-space are industries such as metallurgy, vehicles...