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Patterns of Export Diversification in Developing Countries : Intensive and Extensive Margins

Amurgo-Pacheco, Alberto; Pierola, Martha Denisse
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.8%
This paper uses highly disaggregated trade data to investigate geographic and product diversification patterns across a group of developing nations for the period from 1990 to 2005. The econometric investigation shows that the gravity equation fits the observed differences in diversification across nations. The analysis shows that exports at the intensive margin account for the most important share of overall trade growth. At the extensive margin, geographic diversification is more important than product diversification, especially for developing countries. Taking part in free trade agreements, thereby reducing trade costs, and trading with countries in the North are also found to have positive impacts on export diversification for developing countries.

Diversification, Innovation, and Imitation inside the Global Technological Frontier

Klinger, Bailey; Lederman, Daniel
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.85%
Recent research highlights the relationship between economic development and productive diversification, which may be hindered by market failures. After identifying stages of diversification in disaggregated export data, the authors develop a metric for the flows of export "discoveries," or inside-the-frontier innovations in developing countries. They then explore the empirical relationship between economic development and (1) inside-the-frontier-innovation as reflected by the introduction of new export products, (2) export diversification measured by an index of export-revenue concentration, and (3) on-the-frontier innovation as reflected in patents. The data suggest, unsurprisingly, that inside-the-frontier innovation is more common among poor countries than among industrial economies. Overall export diversification increases at low levels of development but declines with development after a high-income point, whereas patenting activity rises exponentially with development. The data also suggest that the relationship between the frequency of export discoveries and economic development is not due to changes in the industrial composition of exports. The authors use a simple model of innovation and imitation to test the hypothesis that the threat of imitation inhibits the discovery of new exports. Econometric evidence suggests that the frequency of export discoveries across countries rises with the returns of export activities (proxied by exogenous export growth during the sample period)...

Export-led growth v2.0

Canuto, Otaviano; Haddad, Mona; Hanson, Gordon
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.49%
The United States (U.S.) recession could hurt the South, particularly in oil and apparel exports, and Latin America and the Caribbean. But South-South trade is partly picking up the slack. Middle-income countries are driving export diversification of low-income countries. Developing countries may be moving toward a new version of export-led growth.

Managing Openness and Volatility : The Role of Export Diversification

Haddad, Mona; Lim, Jamus Jerome; Saborowski, Christian
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.82%
As developing countries look to embrace an outward-oriented growth strategy, some may be concerned about the possibility that increased openness will be accompanied by increased volatility. However, although a more open economy may face increased volatility in its terms of trade, openness confers diversification benefits. In this note, authors argue that export diversification is a key mitigating factor for the total effect of openness on volatility. More specifically, authors show that most developing countries fall on the "good" side of a diversification threshold, where they are likely to experience less volatility as they pursue a strategy of greater openness.

Trade Policy Barriers : An Obstacle to Export Diversification in Eurasia

Cusolito, Ana Paula; Hollweg, Claire H.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.74%
Despite trade liberalization efforts made by Eurasian countries, the export structure of the region shows significant levels of concentration across export destinations. To shed light on this observation, this research analyzes trade policy barriers in Eurasia, East Asia and the Pacific, and the European Union. Using the most recent data from sources including the World Trade Organization, the United Nations, and the World Bank including the Overall Trade Restrictiveness Indices, the Services Trade Restrictions Database, and the Temporary Trade Barriers Database the role of tariffs, non-tariff measures, temporary trade barriers, trade agreements, and trade barriers in services are explored to explain the lack of diversification by destination. Several conclusions can be drawn from the analysis. First, China, Korea, and Japan, as well as the European Union, impose high levels of protection on products of animal origin, which may explain the lack of Eurasian export diversification toward the East Asia and the Pacific and the European Union regions. It also highlights the potential benefits of diversifying the structure of production in Eurasia toward more sophisticated and technologically intensive goods. Second...

Latent Trade Diversification and Its Relevance for Macroeconomic Stability

Lederman, Daniel; Pienknagura, Samuel; Rojas, Diego
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.91%
Traditional measures of trade diversification only take into account contemporaneous export baskets. These measures fail to capture a country’s ability to respond to shocks by allocating factors of production into activities for which it has already paid the fixed costs associated with exporting. This paper corrects for the shortcoming of traditional measures of diversification by introducing a novel measure of trade diversification—latent diversification—and proposes a proxy to measure latent diversification, which is calculated by taking into account the entire history of a country’s exports. The paper shows that the observed gaps between traditional measures of diversification and the proposed proxy of latent diversification are sizeable; countries hold latent export baskets that are, on average, three times as large as their average contemporaneous export basket, and these gaps are largest for poor and small countries. Moreover, latent diversification is an important determinant of volatility—more diversified latent export baskets are associated with lower terms of trade volatility and...

Export Diversification in Africa

Huria, Ankur; Brenton, Paul
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.61%
Economic activity in many African countries remains highly concentrated and exports are often dominated by mineral resources or a few primary products. The World Bank’s 2011 report on light manufacturing in Africa identified poor trade logistics performance as a constraint that especially penalized African exporters that relied on imported inputs, very often making them uncompetitive. The report highlighted research that demonstrated how poor logistics added roughly a 10 percent production cost penalty in Ethiopia, Tanzania, and Zambia across the five subsectors of light manufacturing where opportunities were identified as greatest in Africa. The report outlined how in Africa poor trade logistics increase production costs (often wiping out the labor cost advantage) and lead to long and unreliable delivery times, making local firm’s unattractive suppliers to lead firms in global value chains (GVCs), particularly for light manufacturing. This note seeks to contribute to a review of progress in achieving export diversification through greater exports of light manufacturing products. It looks at recent trends in the exports of the five categories of light manufacturing identified as having strong potential in Africa. The note reviews progress in improving trade logistics in Sub-Saharan Africa...

Evaluating the Case for Export Subsidies

Panagariya, Arvind
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Working Paper; Publications & Research; Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.62%
Now that import-substitution policies have failed and been discredited, there has been a shift in favor of interventions on behalf of export interests. The author argues that close scrutiny reveals these arguments to be as flawed as the old arguments for import substitution. Among other things, the author concludes that: 1) Under perfect competition, a country trying to retaliate against a trading partners export subsidies by instituting its own export subsidies, will only hurt itself. 2) The argument that export subsidies may be useful for neutralizing import tariffs, is spurious. In most practical situations, this is not possible. Removal of tariffs is a far superior policy. 3) In principle, a case can be made for protecting infant export industries in the presence of externalities. But the empirical relevance of externalities remains as illusory for export industries as it was for import-substituting industries. 4) Adverse selection and moral hazard can lead to the thinning of the market for credit insurance, but that is not a case for government intervention. 5) India's experience shows export subsidies to have little impact on exports. Brazil and Mexico's experience shows export subsidies to be a costly instrument of export diversification. 6) Those who argue that pro-export interventions were important in East Asia have not provided convincing evidence of a casual relationship between the interventions and growth.

Export Diversi cation in a Transitioning Economy : The Case of Syria

Lim, Jamus Jerome; Saborowski, Christian
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.86%
How does the process of export diversification play out in a transitioning economy, especially in light of government policy aimed at trade liberalization? This paper examines this question by considering a directed policy effort by Syria -- an economy transitioning from both economic centralization and resource dependence -- to liberalize its trade in 2001. In addition to documenting the patterns of diversification at the aggregate level since the implementation of the policy, we also examine factors that are related to diversification at the sectoral level. Our findings suggest that, while Syria has achieved reasonably rapid export diversification, this may to a large extent be the result of structural transformations in the economy, and that further consolidation of diversification gains may require continued policy reform along the lines of strengthening Syria's weak institutional and business environment.

Russian Federation - Export Diversification through Competition and Innovation : A Policy Agenda

World Bank
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Other Financial Sector Study; Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.78%
Economic modernization and export diversification are priorities in the Russian economic policy agenda, with several measures undertaken in recent years to promote growth in the nonoil and gas sector. Russia's export base has narrowed substantially over the past decade. Lack of diversification cannot be pinned down to a single cause. Competition and innovation are examined in this study as key drivers of export diversification. After presenting our findings we identify some key trade policy measures that could help firms enter foreign markets and sustain current trade relationships. A comprehensive competition policy will help establish a level playing field, facilitate entry of more efficient firms, and encourage orderly exit of less efficient firms, thereby contributing to increased productivity and export propensity. The government's current initiatives to foster innovation could be strengthened through a number of specific measures focusing on commercialization of public research and development and adequate research funding. This study is organized as follows. Section two scrutinizes various dimensions of Russia's trade performance...

Gabon Export Diversification and Competitiveness Report; Rapport sur la diversification et la competitivite des exportations en Republique Gabonaise : ameliorer le climat d'investissement pour diversifier l'economie

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Report; Economic & Sector Work; Economic & Sector Work :: Policy Note
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.59%
The diagnosis of Gabon's trade potential and the lessons from international experience suggest that, in the long run, the best way to foster export diversification may not be to try to achieve it immediately through providing inefficient incentives but rather to first build domestic capabilities, step by step. To do so, a comprehensive approach that prioritizes and sequences actions needs to be implemented. Key recommendations of this report are to (1) strengthen the regulatory and institutional framework for export promotion, (2) improve the equality of human capital, (3) build a fair and transparent business environment, and (4) upgrade the quality, and reduce the cost, of infrastructure services.

Strengthening Bolivian Competitiveness : Export Diversification and Inclusive Growth

World Bank
Fonte: World Bank Publicador: World Bank
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication; Publications & Research :: Publication
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.8%
Bolivia's trade liberalization, launched in the mid-1980s, has resulted in a relatively open trade regime; but the results have been mixed. Bolivia's export to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ratio and export entrepreneurship index rating are among the highest in the Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) region and the country has achieved great success in making soya the major export crop in less than 10 years. At the same time, the country's share in world trade has stagnated and exports are increasingly dominated by gas and minerals. Reinvigorating the nontraditional export sector is important for the government of Bolivia as it implements its national development plan. As a resource-rich country, the Bolivian government's emphasis on export diversification is well-placed but the optimal nontraditional export strategy should build on successes in the traditional sector. This study investigates: (a) the role trade should play in Bolivia's development strategy considering the country's natural resource endowment; (b) the lessons of Bolivia's integration to the world economy; (c) the linkages between Bolivia's past trade and economy and a forward-looking analysis of the impact of different scenarios on growth...

Clothing and Export Diversification : Still a Route to Growth for Low-Income Countries?

Brenton, Paul; Hoppe, Mombert
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.68%
Can the clothing sector be a driver of export diversification and growth for today's low-income countries as it was in the past for countries that have graduated into middle income? This paper assesses this issue taking into account key changes to the market for clothing: the emergence of India and especially China as exporting countries; the rise of global production chains; the removal of quotas from the global trading regime but the continued presence of high tariffs and substantial trade preferences; the increasing importance of large buyers in developed countries and their concerns regarding risk and reputation; and the increasing importance of time in defining sourcing decisions. To assess the importance of the factors shaping the global clothing market, the authors estimate a gravity model to explain jointly the propensity to export clothing and the magnitude of exports from developing countries to the E U and US markets. This analysis identifies the quality of governance as an important determinant of sourcing decisions and that there appears to be a general bias against sourcing apparel from African countries...

Export Profiles of Small Landlocked Countries : A Case Study Focusing on their Implications for Lesotho

Ng, Francis; Yeats, Alexander
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.85%
World Bank demographic and country characteristic statistics identify 16 small landlocked countries that are similar to Lesotho. The authors attempt to determine what useful policy information can be derived from the recent trade performance of these "comparators." Among questions they pose are whether the trade profiles of the comparators suggest potentially promising export ventures for Lesotho, do they indicate directions for a geographic diversification of trade, or do they suggest products in which Lesotho might acquire a comparative advantage. The authors also use U.S. partner country statistics to evaluate Lesotho's export performance in this major market. The U.S. data indicate Lesotho lost competitive export shares for about three-quarters of its major clothing products during the late 1990s. The data show these losses were primarily to the North America Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) countries in the Caribbean. Lesotho was competing on basically equal terms and did not fare well. But it is generally held that the most efficient clothing exporters are in the Far East and not Latin America. Lesotho's difficulties in competing with the latter have worrisome implications for its ability to compete with East Asian exporters when the Multifiber Arrangement is phased out. The comparative advantage profiles of the landlocked comparator countries suggest Lesotho's options for a greatly needed export diversification may be wider than is assumed. One or more of the comparator countries developed a comparative advantage in 110 four-digit SITC (non-clothing) manufactures which are generally labor-intensive in production. Many of these goods should also be suitable for production and export by Lesotho. International production sharing often involves the importation and further assembly of components in developing countries. This activity can significantly broaden the range of new products in which a country can diversify. Statistics show many landlocked comparator countries have moved into component assembly operations...

Export Diversification in Twelve European and Central Asian Countries and the Role of the Commodity Boom

Varela, Gonzalo J.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.75%
This paper examines export diversification along the product and market dimensions for selected countries in the Europe and Central Asia region and, more generally, export performance. While the latter is extraordinary, with average export growth rates above 10 percent, the evidence on diversification is less impressive, and hints at a role played by the interaction of natural resource abundance and the commodity price boom. A cross-country analysis including 171 economies suggests that the region's resource rich countries are less diversified than would be expected given their resource endowments, level of development, and size. The commodity boom period was associated with an increase in concentration for the resource rich along the product dimension: they did not increase the number of products exported and became more reliant on oil and gas. During the same period, the resource poor increased their export product scope while maintaining other concentration indices unchanged. A similar but milder pattern is found for diversification along the destination dimension.

Domestic Constraints, Firm Characteristics, and Geographical Diversification of Firm-Level Manufacturing Exports in Africa

Yoshino, Yutaka
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.84%
Using firm-level data on manufacturing sectors in Africa, this paper addresses how domestic supply constraints and other firm characteristics explain the geographical orientation of firms' exports and the overall market diversification of African manufacturing exports. The degree of market diversification, measured by the number of export destinations, is highly correlated with export intensity at the firm level, and both embody strong scale effects. Technological factors, such as new vintage capital and Internet access, which improve production efficiency and lower export costs, show strong effects on the firm-level export intensity. Some qualitative differences exist between Africa's regional exports and exports to the global markets. Foreign ownership is a significant factor in characterizing the intensity of global exports but not regional exports. The technological factors are significant in both cases, but more so in global exports. Public infrastructure constraints, such as inferior power services and customs delays...

Bolivia - Strengthening Competitiveness for Export Diversification and Inclusive Growth

Sakho, Seynabou; Calvo-Gonzalez, Oscar
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Brief; Publications & Research
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.71%
In this context, a recent World Bank report investigates how Bolivia can achieve greater diversification in the nontraditional sectors through higher compositeness. The report identifies the main constraints with an emphasis on transport and logistics, paramount for a landlocked country. The report analyses how Bolivia's opening to foreign trade since the mid 1980s has affected economic growth, employment, and poverty. The analysis further assesses the role of Bolivia's current preferential trade agreements on those key economic indicators. Rapidly rising inflation poses a threat to the competitiveness of Bolivian exporters. Inflation climbed to 12 percent at end-2007, up from 5 percent in 2006, increasing the price of Bolivian exports. The higher inflation is the result of such variables as the global rise in food prices, a slow supply response attributable to low private investment, increased aggregate demand fueled by remit tends to under-export relative to other countries.

Russian Federation - Export Diversification through Competition and Innovation : A Policy Agenda

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Other Financial Sector Study; Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.81%
Russia's exports became further dominated by petroleum and natural gas over the last decade. The sector experienced double-digit annual export growth in the last decade and represented almost 65 percent of Russia's exports value in 2009 a product of higher commodity prices and higher export volumes. Export growth rates of the non-oil and gas sector were also notable. Such industries as machinery, electronics, transportation equipment and chemicals reached a combined growth rate in export value of 10 percent in the last decade. This more positive comparison, however, hides relevant structural limitations in Russia's trade performance. Moreover, Russia's revealed comparative advantage seems concentrated in the 'periphery' of the product-space map, which may limit the potential for export diversification. This includes industries such as raw materials (26 products) and forestry (11 products) out of a total of 97 identified products. (At the center of the product-space are industries such as metallurgy, vehicles...

The roots of export diversification

Jetter, Michael; Ramírez Hassan, Andrés
Fonte: Universidad EAFIT; Escuela de Economía y Finanzas Publicador: Universidad EAFIT; Escuela de Economía y Finanzas
Tipo: workingPaper; Documento de trabajo de investigación; draf
ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.52%
Countries with diversi ed export baskets take advantage of various bene ts, which are said to foster and stabilize economic growth directly and through indirect channels (e.g. reduced income volatility, positive externalities, spillover e ects). This is especially important in the context of developing economies. However, identifying the true determinants of export diversifi cation is di cult as there exists no comprehensive theoretical or empirical framework to capture all potential factors in their entirety. This paper uses Bayesian Model Averaging to uncover the true long-term roots of export diversi cation among 43 potential determinants,and thus 2 potential models. Our results suggest that only four factors are important in predicting export diversi cation levels over the long run: natural resource rents as a percentage of GDP (100 % posterior inclusion probability), primary school enrollment rates (96 %), population size (25 %), and foreign direct investment levels (17 %). Many prominent candidates turn out to be insigni cant in determining diversi cation levels. Neither policy-related variables (e.g. tari s, freedom from trade regulations or democracy) nor macroeconomic factors (such as trade openness, terms of trade or domestic investment levels) nor geographical remoteness (whether the country is an island or landlocked) play a role. Various robustness checks con rm our results.

Trade diversification in Colombia, 1991-2011

Argüello Cuervo, Luis Ricardo
Fonte: Facultad de Economía Publicador: Facultad de Economía
Tipo: info:eu-repo/semantics/book; info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersion Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em //2013
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.57%
We describe the evolution of international trade and the behavior of export diversification in Colombia during the period 1991-2011. For measuring trade diversification and following up its behavior along the period, we employ alternative ways of decomposing trade flows along its intensive and extensive margins, using the latter as a measure of diversification. Results indicate that, in the short run, trade diversification in Colombia can be characterized as weak but that there is a modest trend for an increase in its importance. With some differences in degree, for both exports and imports, the number of partner countries increases faster than the number of products contained in the average basket traded and, simultaneously, the number of traded products increases faster than the average number of countries with which they are traded. Hence, trade diversification in Colombia seems to follow a pattern that implies that trade with new partners tends to be relatively slowly populated in terms of products or, from the opposite point of view, trade of new products is relatively sluggish in extending to new partner countries