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Employment and exchange rates: the role of openness and technology

Alexandre, Fernando; Bação, Pedro; Cerejeira, João; Portela, Miguel
Fonte: FEUC. Grupo de Estudos Monetários e Financeiros Publicador: FEUC. Grupo de Estudos Monetários e Financeiros
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento
ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.13%
Real exchange rate movements are important drivers of the reallocation of resources between sectors of the economy. Economic theory suggests that the impact of exchange rates should vary with the degree of exposure to international competition and with the technology level. This paper contributes by bringing together these two views, both theoretically and empirically. We show that both the degree of openness and the technology level mediate the impact of exchange rate movements on labour market developments. According to our estimations, whereas employment in high-technology sectors seems to be relatively immune to changes in real exchange rates, these appear to have sizable and significant effects on highly open low-technology sectors. The analysis of job flows suggests that the impact of exchange rates on these sectors occurs through employment destruction.; Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia

Manufacturing employment and exchange rates in the Portuguese economy : the role of openness, technology and labour market rigidity

Alexandre, Fernando; Bação, Pedro; Silva, João C. Cerejeira da; Portela, Miguel
Fonte: Universidade do Minho. Núcleo de Investigação em Políticas Económicas (NIPE) Publicador: Universidade do Minho. Núcleo de Investigação em Políticas Económicas (NIPE)
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento
Publicado em //2010 ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.01%
Integration into the world economy, specialization in low-technology sectors and labour market rigidity have been singled out as structural features of the Portuguese economy that are crucial for the understanding of its performance. In this paper, we explore empirically the role of openness, technology and labour market rigidity in the determination of the effect of the exchange rate on the dynamics of employment in Portugal. Our estimates indicate that employment in low-technology sectors with a high degree of trade openness and facing less rigidity in the labour market is more sensitive to movements in exchange rates. Therefore, our results provide additional evidence on the relevance of those structural features for explaining the evolution of the Portuguese economy in the last decades. In this paper the degree of labour market rigidity is measured at the sector level by means of a novel index. According to this index, high-technology sectors face less labour market rigidity. These sectors are also more exposed to international competition. However, the bulk of employment destruction has occurred in low-technology sectors. This suggests that productivity/technology may be the key variable to reduce the economy´s exposure to external shocks.; Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) - Programa Operacional Ciência e Inovação 2010 (POCI 2010); Fundo Europeu de Desenvolvimento Regional (FEDER)

Determinants of exchange rates: An empirical analysis

Canelas, José Pedro Lourenço Prates
Fonte: NSBE - UNL Publicador: NSBE - UNL
Tipo: Dissertação de Mestrado
Publicado em /01/2014 ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.97%
A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics; This research focuses on the possible lag relationship among exchange rates. The period considered (2000-2013) comprises the Financial Crisis and therefore it was divided into two distinct periods: before and during the crisis. Before the crisis, the returns of Sweden and the Euro Zone seem to have impact on the British, Korean and Australian ones. During the crisis, there is evidence of the Euro and Sterling Pound influence on the Australian and New Zealand Dollar. Interestingly, the Swedish Krona is significant, in both periods, for the Korean Won, leading to deepen their common “technological profile” or the significance of major companies of both countries on Sweden’s returns. Carry trade is also presented as a possible justification for the Australian Dollar’s importance.

Does Higher Openness Cause More Real Exchange Rate Volatility?

Calderón, César; Kubota, Megumi
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.28%
The "New Open Economy Macroeconomics" argues that: (a) non-monetary factors have gained importance in explaining exchange rate volatility, and (b) trade and financial openness may have a potential role of mitigating and/or amplifying real and nominal shocks to real exchange rates. The goal of the present paper is to examine the ability of trade and financial openness to exacerbate or mitigate real exchange rate volatility. The authors collected information on the real effective exchange rate, its fundamentals, and (outcome and policy measures of) trade and financial openness for a sample of industrial and developing countries for the period 1975-2005. Using instrumental variables techniques, the analysis finds that: (a) High real exchange rate volatility is the result of highly volatile productivity shocks, and sharp oscillations in monetary and fiscal policy shocks. (b) Countries more integrated with international markets of goods and services tend to display more stable real exchange rate fluctuations. (c) Financial openness seems to amplify the fluctuations in real exchange rates. (d) The composition of trade and capital flows plays a role in explaining the smoothing properties of trade and financial openness. Although the former is mainly driven by manufacturing trade...

Exchange Rates during the Crisis

Weber, Sebastian; Wyplosz, Charles
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.29%
Nearly two years after the onset of the financial crises, many central banks have brought their policy interest rates down to, or close to zero. Various governments have seen their budget deficits soar. Both policies have affected exchange rates, partly through market expectations. With a majority of exchange rates officially floating, exchange rate movements do not necessarily reflect official decisions as was the case in the 1930s. Yet, also in the 2008 crisis, authorities have directly intervened in the foreign exchange market, sometimes in order to defend a falling currency but in other instances with the aim to limit appreciation pressure, akin of competitive devaluations. This paper documents the exchange rate interventions during the height of the 2008/09 financial crisis and identifies the countries which have particular high incentives to intervene in the foreign exchange market to competitively devalue their currency. While various countries had increased incentives to devalue, we find that direct exchange rate interventions have been rather limited and contagion of devaluation has been restricted to one regionally contained case. However...

Import Protection, Business Cycles, and Exchange Rates : Evidence from the Great Recession

Bown, Chad P.; Crowley, Meredith A.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.22%
This research estimates the impact of macroeconomic fluctuations on import protection policies over 1988:Q1-2010:Q4 for the United States, European Union, and three other industrialized economies. First, estimates on a pre-Great Recession sample provide evidence of three key relationships for the US and EU. Increases in domestic unemployment rates and real appreciations in bilateral exchange rates led to substantial increases in antidumping and related forms of import protection. Furthermore, economies historically imposed these bilateral import restrictions on trading partners going through their own periods of weak economic growth. Second, estimates from the pre-Great Recession model predict a major trade policy response during 2008:Q4-2010:Q4, given the realized macroeconomic shocks. New US and EU trade barriers were projected to cover up to an additional 15 percentage points of nonoil imports, well above the baseline level of 2-3 percent of import coverage immediately preceding the crisis. Third, re-estimating the model on data from the Great Recession period illustrates why the realized trade policy response differed from model predictions based on historical data. While exchange rate movements played an important role in limiting new import protection...

Real Exchange Rates, Saving and Growth : Is There a Link ?

Montiel, Peter J.; Servén, Luis
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.25%
The view that policies directed at the real exchange rate can have an important effect on economic growth has been gaining adherents in recent years. Unlike the traditional "misalignment" view that temporary departures of the real exchange rate from its equilibrium level harm growth by distorting a key relative price in the economy, the recent literature stresses the growth effects of the equilibrium real exchange rate itself, with the claim being that a depreciated equilibrium real exchange rate promotes economic growth. While there is no consensus on the precise channels through which this effect is generated, an increasingly common view in policy circles points to saving as the channel of transmission, with the claim that a depreciated real exchange rate raises the domestic saving rate -- which in turn stimulates growth by increasing the rate of capital accumulation. This paper offers a preliminary exploration of this claim. Drawing from standard analytical models, stylized facts on saving and real exchange rates...

Exchange rates and FDI: goods versus capital market frictions

Buch, Claudia M.; Kleinert, Jörn
Fonte: Universität Tübingen Publicador: Universität Tübingen
Tipo: ResearchPaper
EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.04%
Economic theory provides two main explanations why changes in exchange rates can affect foreign direct investment (FDI). According to a first explanation, FDI reacts to exchange rate changes if there are information frictions on capital markets and if the investment by firms depends on their net worth (capital market friction hypothesis). According to a second explanation, FDI reacts to exchange rate changes if output and factor markets are segmented, and if firm-specific assets are important (goods market friction hypothesis). We provide a unified theoretical framework of the two explanations and test the model using German sectoral data derived from detailed firm-level data. We find greater support for the goods market friction hypothesis.

Forecasting Exchange Rates with a Large Bayesian VAR

CARRIERO, Andrea; KAPETANIOS, George; MARCELLINO, Massimiliano
Fonte: European University Institute Publicador: European University Institute
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento Formato: application/pdf; digital
EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.16%
Models based on economic theory have serious problems at forecasting exchange rates better than simple univariate driftless random walk models, especially at short horizons. Multivariate time series models suffer from the same problem. In this paper, we propose to forecast exchange rates with a large Bayesian VAR (BVAR), using a panel of 33 exchange rates vis-a-vis the US Dollar. Since exchange rates tend to co-move, the use of a large set of them can contain useful information for forecasting. In addition, we adopt a driftless random walk prior, so that cross-dynamics matter for forecasting only if there is strong evidence of them in the data. We produce forecasts for all the 33 exchange rates in the panel, and show that our model produces systematically better forecasts than a random walk for most of the countries, and at any forecast horizon, including at 1-step ahead.

Trade and Foreign Exchange Policies in Iran : Reform Agenda, Economic Implications and Impact on the Poor

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.22%
Iran's economic performance in the last two decades has been very disappointing. This is highlighted by the fact that per capita GDP was 16 percent lower in 1998 than in 1979. However, the most important single reason for this poor performance was not any domestic economic policy, but the long and costly war with Iraq. Fluctuations in oil prices and the US embargo also adversely affected the economy. Once the war with Iraq had finished, economic performance began to improve slowly; in the decede ending in 1998 per capita GDP growth was positive, although it averaged only 3 percent per year. Although less important than the war with Iraq, Iran's domestic economic policies have not been conducive to rapid economic growth. Economic performance has been and still is hampered by administered prices; large, poorly targeted subsidies; multiple exchange rates (Which remain important, despite recent progress in reducing disparities among them); trade restrictions; and state domination of economic activity. All banks in Iran are sdtate owned...

Exchange Rate Overvaluation and Trade Protection; Lessons from Experience

Shatz, Howard J.; Tarr, David G.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Working Paper; Publications & Research; Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.28%
Despite a trend toward more flexible rates, more than half the world's countries maintain fixed or managed exchange rates. In the 1980s and 1990s, developing countries as a group progressively liberalized their trade regimes, but some governments defend their exchange rate in actions that run counter to long-run plans for liberalization. Without discussing the relative merits of fixed and flexible exchange rate systems, the authors note that exchange rate management in many countries has resulted in overvaluation of the real exchange rate. Roughly twenty five percent of the countries for which data are available have overvalued exchange rates, with black market premiums from 10 percent to more than 100 percent. After surveying the literature, the authors present lessons from experience about what has worked (or not) in response to crises involving external shocks and external trade deficits - and why. Trying to defend an overvalued exchange rate with protectionist trade policies is a classic pattern, but experience shows such protection does significantly retard the country's growth...

Global Transmission of Interest Rates : Monetary Independence and the Currency Regime

Frankel, Jeffrey; Schmukler, Sergio; Serven, Luis
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.27%
The authors empirically study the sensitivity of local interest rates to international interest rates and how that sensitivity is affected by a country's choice of exchange rate regime. To establish the empirical regularities, they use a reduced-form empirical approach to compute both panel and single-country estimates of interest rate sensitivity for a large sample of developing and industrial economies between 1970 and 1999. When using the full sample, they find that: 1) Interest rates are typically lower in economies with fixed exchange rates than in those with flexible exchange rates. 2) More rigid currency regimes tend to exhibit higher transmission than more flexible regimes. In many cases in the 1990s, however, the authors cannot reject full transmission (a slope coefficient equal to 1), even for several countries with floating regimes. The data suggest an upward time trend in the degree to which domestic interest rates are sensitive to international capital movements and developing economies' increased financial integration with the rest of the world. As a result...

Proposed Strategy for a Regional Exchange Rate Arrangement in Post-Crisis East Asia

Kawai, Masahiro; Takagi, Shinji
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.25%
After discussing major conceptual, and empirical issues relevant to the exchange rate policies of East Asian countries, the authors propose a regional exchange rate arrangement designed to promote intra-regional exchange rate stability, and regional economic growth. They argue that: 1) For developing countries, exchange rate volatility tends to significantly hurt trade and investment, making it inadvisable to adopt a system of freely floating exchange rates. 2) Given the high share of intra-regional trade, and the similarity of trade composition in East Asia, exchange rate policy should be directed toward maintaining intra-regional exchange rate stability, to promote trade, investment, and economic growth. 3) the current policy of maintaining exchange rate stability against U.S. dollar as an informal, uncoordinated mechanisms for ensuring intra-regional exchange rate stability is sub-optimal. A pragmatic policy option - conducive to a more robust framework for cooperation in monetary, and exchange rate policy - wold be a coordinated action to shift the target of nominal exchange rate stability...

Shock Persistence and the Choice of Foreign Exchange Regime : An Empirical Note from Mexico

Giugale, Marcelo; Korobow, Adam
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research; Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.24%
The academic and policy debate about optimal foreign exchange rate regimes for emerging economies, has focused more on the theoretical costs and benefits of possible regimes, than on their actual performance. The authors report on what can be called exchange-rate-regime-dependent differential shock persistence - that is, the time output takes to return to its trend after a negative shock - in a sample of countries representing various points on the spectrum of nominal foreign exchange flexibility. They find strong evidence that Mexico's stimulated output recovery after a negative external shock was faster (a third as long) when the country's policymakers let the nominal foreign exchange rate float, than when they fixed it, and much faster than in other developing countries that kept nominal foreign exchange rates constant, especially those that resorted to currency board arrangements to support that constancy. These results are insufficient to guide the choice of regime (they lack general equilibrium value, and are based on a limited sample of countries), but they highlight an important practical consideration in making that choice: How long it takes for output to adjust after negative shocks, is sensitive to the level of rigidity of the foreign exchange regime. This factor may be critical when the social costs of those adjustments are not negligible.

Spillover Effects of Exchange Rates : A Study of the Renminbi

Mattoo, Aaditya; Mishra, Prachi; Subramanian, Arvind
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.24%
This paper estimates how changes in China's exchange rates would affect exports from competitor countries in third-country markets -- in other words, the "spillover effect." The authors use recent theory to develop an identification strategy, with a key role for the competition between China and its developing country competitors in specific products and export destinations. Using disaggregated trade data, they estimate the spillover effect by exploiting the variation across different exporters, importers, products, and time periods. They find a spillover effect that is statistically and quantitatively significant. Their estimates suggest that a 10-percent appreciation of China's real exchange rate boosts a developing country's exports of a typical four-digit Harmonized System product category to third markets by about 1.5 to 2 percent on average. The magnitude of the spillover effect varies systematically with the characteristics of products, such as the extent to which they are differentiated.

Is There Room for Foreign Exchange Interventions Under an Inflation Targeting Framework? Evidence from Mexico and Turkey

Domaç, Ilker; Mendoza, Alfonso
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, D.C. Publicador: World Bank, Washington, D.C.
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.23%
The salient characteristics of emerging market economies coupled with the increasing adoption of inflation targeting in these countries has stimulated much debate about the role of the exchange rate in inflation targeting regimes. The authors aim at shedding more light on this issue by investigating whether central bank foreign exchange interventions have had any impact on the volatility of the exchange rate in Mexico and Turkey since the adoption of the floating regime. To this end, their study, using daily data on foreign exchange intervention, employs an Exponential GARCH framework. Empirical results suggest that both the amount and frequency of foreign exchange interventions have decreased the volatility of the exchange rates in these countries. The authors' findings corroborate the notion that if foreign exchange interventions are carried out with finesse and sensibly-that is, not to defend a particular exchange rate-they could play a useful role in containing the adverse effects of temporary exchange rate shocks on inflation and financial stability.

Assessing inefficiency in euro bilateral exchange rates

Tabak, Benjamin Miranda; Cajueiro, Daniel Oliveira
Fonte: Universidade Católica de Brasília Publicador: Universidade Católica de Brasília
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: Texto
EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.97%
This paper assesses inefficiency for 10 euro bilateral exchange rates. We study the dynamics of these time series by estimating Tsallis q entropic index and Hurst exponents using the local Whittle estimator. Empirical results suggest that US, Canadian and Singapore dollar are amongst the most efficient currencies, while Japanese yen and Swedish krona are amongst the most inefficient.

Real equilibrium exchange rates. A panel data approach for advanced and emerging economies.

López Villavicencio, Antonia
Fonte: Universidade Autônoma de Barcelona Publicador: Universidade Autônoma de Barcelona
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em //2007 ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.06%
Based on an behavioral equilibrium exchange rate model, this paper examines the determinants of the real effective exchange rate and evaluates the degree of misalignment of a group of currencies since 1980. Within a panel cointegration setting, we estimate the relationship between exchange rate and a set of economic fundamentals, such as traded-nontraded productivity differentials and the stock of foreign assets. Having ascertained the variables are integrated and cointegrated, the long-run equilibrium value of the fundamentals are estimated and used to derive equilibrium exchange rates and misalignments. Although there is statistical homogeneity, some structural differences were found to exist between advanced and emerging economies.

Effective Exchange Rates in Japan, 1879-1938

Shimazaki, Masao; Solomou, Solomos
Fonte: Universidade de Cambridge Publicador: Universidade de Cambridge
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento Formato: 89916 bytes; application/pdf; application/pdf
EN_GB
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.01%
This paper constructs nominal and real multilateral effective exchange rates ffor Japan during the period 1879-1938. Existing studies of Japanese quantitative economic history have tended to use the dollar-yen bilateral exchange rate. A comparison of different indices suggests that the new data offer new insights into Japan?s economic history.

Are Exchange Rates Really Random Walks? Some Evidence Robust To Parameter Instability

Rossi, Barbara
Fonte: Macroeconomic Dynamics Publicador: Macroeconomic Dynamics
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: 255496 bytes; application/pdf
Publicado em /02/2006 EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.09%
Many authors have documented that it is challenging to explain exchange rate fluctuations with macroeconomic fundamentals: a random walk forecasts future exchange rates better than existing macroeconomic models. This paper applies newly developed tests for nested model that are robust to the presence of parameter instability. The empirical evidence shows that for some countries we can reject the hypothesis that exchange rates are random walks. This raises the possibility that economic models were previously rejected not because the fundamentals are completely unrelated to exchange rate fluctuations, but because the relationship is unstable over time and, thus, difficult to capture by Granger Causality tests or by forecast comparisons. We also analyze forecasts that exploit the time variation in the parameters and find that, in some cases, they can improve over the random walk.