This paper proposes a combined pool/bilateral short term hydrothermal scheduling model (PDC) for the context of the day-ahead energy markets. Some innovative aspects are introduced in the model, such as: i) the hydraulic generation is optimized through the opportunity cost function proposed; ii) there is no decoupling between physical and commercial dispatches, as is the case today in Brazil; iii) interrelationships between pool and bilateral markets are represented through a single optimization problem; iv) risk exposures related to future deficits are intrinsically mitigated; v) the model calculates spot prices in an hourly basis and the results show a coherent correlation between hydrological conditions and calculated prices. The proposed PDC model is solved by a primal-dual interior point method and is evaluated by simulations involving a test system. The results are focused on sensitivity analyses involving the parameters of the model, in such a way to emphasize its main modeling aspects. The results show that the proposed PDC provides a conceptual means for short term price formation for hydrothermal systems.
Neste trabalho se propõe a realização, no Brasil, de estudos de Planejamento Integrado de Recursos ? PIR, de cunho indicativo, nas bacias hidrográficas do País, centrado em torno da disponibilidade, custo e qualidade da água, energia elétrica e gás canalizado como importantes vetores de desenvolvimento regional. A implantação do tipo de planejamento proposto nesta tese é bastante complexa e inovadora, no Brasil e no mundo. Tais características impedem um tratamento, neste trabalho, ao mesmo tempo abrangente e detalhado em todas as suas múltiplas facetas. Optou-se, então, por definir, como uma contribuição específica da tese, o desenvolvimento, em detalhes, de estudos prospectivos do mercado de energia, incluindo programas de eficiência energética, em bacias hidrográficas, associados a planos nacionais e projeções de mercado estaduais. Para subsidiar estes estudos e se detectar tendências, realizou-se amplas análises retrospectivas sobre a economia e a matriz energética do Estado de São Paulo e da bacia escolhida, dentro do Estado, utilizando várias fontes de informações de uso público restrito e construindo uma base de dados sócio-econômicos e energéticos municipais para a bacia em questão. A bacia hidrográfica escolhida para ilustrar os procedimentos propostos nesta tese foi a da Unidade de Gerenciamento de Recursos Hídricos dos rios Piracicaba...
Evidence from the U.S. and some other countries indicates that organized wholesale markets for electrical energy and operating reserves do not provide adequate incentives to stimulate the proper quantity or mix of generating capacity consistent with mandatory reliability criteria. A large part of the problem can be associated with the failure of wholesale spot market prices for energy and operating reserves to rise to high enough levels during periods when generating capacity is fully utilized. Reforms to wholesale energy markets, the introduction of well-design forward capacity markets, and symmetrical treatment of demand response and generating capacity resources to respond to market and institutional imperfections are discussed. This policy reform program is compatible with improving the efficiency of spot wholesale electricity markets, the continued evolution of competitive retail markets, and restores incentives for efficient investment in generating capacity consistent with operating reliability criteria applied by system operators. It also responds to investment disincentives that have been associated with volatility in wholesale energy prices, limited hedging opportunities and to concerns about regulatory opportunism.
Across the Western Balkan region,
countries exhibit relatively high levels of energy
intensity, a high energy savings potential among energy
end-users, and heavy dependence on imported hydrocarbons.
Energy markets would benefit from enhanced demand-side
efforts and integrated energy efficiency measures across all
sectors. Since most energy infrastructure was built during
the 1960s and 1970s, inadequately maintained since the
1990s, and reaching the end of its useful lifespan, now is a
crucial time to consider the way forward in the energy
sector. The signing of the Energy Community Treaty in 2003
marked the beginning of systematic energy sector
liberalization among Western Balkan countries, allowing them
to deal with widespread energy sector problems that
included, on the demand side, low energy tariffs, lack of
payment discipline and, hence, little incentive for energy
users to invest in energy efficiency measures. Building each
component of the strong enabling environment required for
increased Energy Efficiency (EE) across the Western Balkan
countries will need cooperation among decision makers at
multiple government levels...
The six Central American countries of
Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua and
Panama share a long tradition of regional integration,
including a common market, substantial intraregional trade,
as well as coordinated commercial policies, such as the
Central American Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA) with the US.
The most significant example of regional integration in the
energy subsector consists of the Sistema de Interconexion
Electrica para America Central (SIEPAC), an interconnection
line that is expected to link the six countries in mid-2010.
The creation of the interconnection has been a long-term
effort, starting in the early 1990s and culminating in 2010.
This report provides an overview of the energy sector in
Central America, with a focus on the power subsector, and
highlights the key challenges and options for meeting future
energy and development goals. One of the main objectives of
the study is to identify paths for collective action whereby
individual countries, and the region as a whole...
Solar energy has experienced phenomenal
growth in recent years due to both technological
improvements resulting in cost reductions and government
policies supportive of renewable energy development and
utilization. This study analyzes the technical, economic and
policy aspects of solar energy development and deployment.
While the cost of solar energy has declined rapidly in the
recent past, it still remains much higher than the cost of
conventional energy technologies. Like other renewable
energy technologies, solar energy benefits from fiscal and
regulatory incentives and mandates, including tax credits
and exemptions, feed-in-tariff, preferential interest rates,
renewable portfolio standards and voluntary green power
programs in many countries. Potential expansion of carbon
credit markets also would provide additional incentives to
solar energy deployment; however, the scale of incentives
provided by the existing carbon market instruments, such as
the Clean Development Mechanism of the Kyoto Protocol, is
limited. Despite the huge technical potential...
The author examines the challenges and opportunities of nuclear power in meeting the projected large absolute increase in energy demand, especially electricity, throughout the industrialized and developing world, while helping to mitigate the threat of climate change. A significant global nuclear power deployment would engender serious risks related to proliferation, safety, and waste disposal. Unlike renewable sources of energy, nuclear power is an unforgiving technology because human lapses and errors can have ecological and social impacts that are catastrophic and irreversible. However, according to some analysts, advances in the design of nuclear reactors may have reduced their associated risks and improved their performance. Moreover, while a variety of renewable energy sources (hydro, wind, modern biomass, solar) will play important roles in the transition to a low-carbon economy, some analysts perceive that nuclear power is the only proven technology for generating electricity that is both largely carbon-free, not location specific (as with wind, hydro and solar), and amenable to significant scaling up. Thus given the projections of threats from climate change, and if the considerable strain experienced by world energy markets in recent years is a harbinger of things to come...
From 1990 to 1999 there were 700 energy
projects in developing countries involving private
participation. Investment in these projects totaled nearly
US$190 billion, and foreign capital was a major source of
funds. Global developers were the top ten sponsors of
private energy projects in developing countries. Their
projects accounted for just over a third of total
investment. This Note surveys the trends by region, by
country income level, and by type of project. It also
explores the consequences of the recent Asian financial
crisis for future investment in Asian energy markets.
Government interventions in energy
markets have many effects on the poor. But there has been
little measurement of these effects, making it hard to know
exactly what the effects of a project have been, and hard to
compare those of different interventions. This could be
rectified by building impact indicators into energy projects
at the design phase--and doing so consistently and
systematically, across countries and over time. This Note
discusses the development of suitable indicators. First,
agreement is needed on workable definitionsof poverty and
what would constitute welfare improvements for the poor.
Then there must be explicit hypotheses on how specific
elements of energy projects, individually or together,
affect the poor. Finally, the indicators must be based on
data tha can be realistically be collected in real-life
low-income communities, in real-life developing countries.
The purpose of this Volume 1 report is
to explore how development of the gas
andelectricity sectors can be better coordinated
within this dynamic environment. In particular,this report
aims to: Briefly outline the gas resources and developments
in Vietnam, and describe the current institutional
arrangements for the gas sector and how they relate to
overall gas and electricity planning; Identify key gas
sector issues as they relate to gas and electricity sector
planning in general and BOT electricity generation project
development, and in particular identify the development and
operating risks for a BOT electricity generation project
developer and suggest mitigation measures for these risks
;Suggest mechanisms to improve gas and electricity planning
coordination. Present a case study that illustrates some of
the gas and electricity planning issues and how these would
be addressed if the suggested planning changes were
implemented. This assignment has been undertaken during a
period of unprecedented change in Vietnam. The electricity
sector is part way through the complex process of
introducing a market. In global world energy markets...
With the exception of energy, all the
key commodity price indices declined significantly in 2013.
Fertilizer prices led the decline, down 17.4 percent from
2012, followed by precious metals (down almost 17 percent),
agriculture (-7.2 percent), and metals (-5.5 percent). Crude
oil prices (World Bank average), which have been remarkably
stable during the past three years, averaged $104/barrel
(bbl) during 2013, marginally lower than the $105/bbl
average of 2012. Most non-energy commodity prices, notably
grains, followed a downward path during 2013. Other risks
for agricultural markets are mostly on the downside as well.
For example, the risk of trade policies impacting
agricultural prices is low as evidenced by the absence of
any export restrictions during 2011-13, despite several
spikes in prices (notably maize and wheat). Finally,
production of biofuels experienced a third year of little
(or no) growth, as policy makers increasingly realize that
the environmental and energy independence benefits from
biofuels may not outweigh the costs.
About one-third of global energy is
consumed in residential, public, and commercial buildings
(collectively referred to as buildings), where it is used
for space heating, cooling, ventilating, lighting, cooking,
water heating, refrigerating, and operating electric and
mechanical devices. Global energy use in buildings is
expected to grow as cities in developing countries continue
to modernize and per capita income levels continue to
increase. Because of their high energy consumption,
residential, public, and commercial buildings also offer
unparalleled opportunities for energy savings. According to
the International Energy Agency, buildings account for some
41 percent of global energy savings potential by 2035,
compared with the industrial sector (24 percent) and the
transport sector (21 percent). This guidance note outlines
how cities can tap into a wide array of proven technologies,
policies, and financing mechanisms to improve energy
efficiency and capture cost-effective energy savings in
buildings. It offers city leaders advice on how to get
started in introducing energy efficiency measures...
Fonte: Instituto Universitário EuropeuPublicador: Instituto Universitário Europeu
Tipo: RelatórioFormato: application/pdf; digital
Relevância na Pesquisa
This report describes the development of transparency in the European wholesale energy markets. Every year starting from 2010, the Florence School of Regulation (FSR) will publish a Transparency Report and assign the Energy Transparency Award. The award aims at promoting transparency best practices and distinguishing a European undertaking, institution or industry association for its particular contribution to the transparency of energy markets. The initiator and the first financing body of the Energy Transparency Award is RWE Supply and Trading. The 2010 Transparency Report focuses on the issue of transparency in wholesale energy markets. Energy trading in Europe has increased considerably since liberalisation and currently involves several hundreds of operators. For instance, figures show that the overall volume of electricity traded via both exchanges and OTC almost tripled between 2000 and 2009, and that the number of total daily transactions in Europe - physical and financial - ranges nowadays between 6,000 and 10,000. In this context, transparency has the important role of allowing the operators to better understand the market and receive correct economic signals, in a “what-you-see-is-what-you-get” fashion. As a result, transparency contributes to create competitive and well-functioning markets...
This paper covers the analysis of the energy markets, emerging trends, oil price evolution and oil shocks and focus on the identification of the major energy game changers. Furthermore the issues of the energy security in the XXI century are introduced and discussed within the framework of supply behavior, stability of prices and economic competitiveness. Special emphasis is given to the interaction between energy security, climate change and environment sustainability. Europe energy security challenges are addressed and discussed with a multidimensional analysis covering the current status, public policies, European energy market, European energy networks, emerging technologies and energy efficiency. Recommendations for future steps to be undertaken to reinforce European energy security will be made.
This paper proposes a set of VaR models appropriate to capture the dynamics of energy prices and subsequently quantify energy price risk by calculating VaR and ES measures. Amongst the competing VaR methodologies evaluated in this paper, besides the commonly used benchmark models, a MC simulation approach and a Hybrid MC with Historical Simulation approach, both assuming various processes for the underlying spot prices, are also being employed. All VaR models are empirically tested on eight spot energy commodities that trade futures contracts on NYMEX and the Spot Energy Index. A two-stage evaluation and selection process is applied, combining statistical and economic measures, to choose amongst the competing VaR models. Finally, both long and short trading positions are considered as it is extremely important for energy traders and risk managers to be able to capture efficiently the characteristics of both tails of the distributions.
The EU proposal on liberalisation of the energy markets has been widely debated in policy, stakeholder and academic circles both for its content and the potential consequences to the gas and electricity markets. However, little has been said about the empirical evidence produced by the European Commission to support this legislative package. Since the Impact Assessment system has been in place, there have been concerns regarding quality and adequateness, especially when quantifying costs, benefits and risks. This paper analyses how these crucial issues were factored into the Impact Assessment on the third legislative package. It investigates the interaction between the legislative proposals on energy liberalisation and its Impact Assessment.
We provide the first evidence on the catalysts for price discovery in the European Union Emissions Trading System. Short-run return dynamics are analysed using a regression approach similar to Fleming, Ostdiek and Whaley (1996), while the permanent contribution of securities to long-run price equilibrium is examined by calculating Hasbrouck‘s (1995) information shares. By employing high frequency data across a wide range of securities, we find that trading costs are a more important determinant of price discovery than the implicit provision of leverage in securities such as futures and options. Securities with low trading costs display greater price discovery than those with high trading costs.
We also examine price discovery within the European markets for coal, natural gas and crude oil. Results show that Brent crude oil futures display greater price discovery than a proxy for the physical Brent market, while there is evidence that West Texas Intermediate futures still dominate price discovery globally. In natural gas markets, UK natural gas futures display greater price discovery than physical trading at North-West Europe‘s main natural gas hubs, though weak links to the crude oil market remain. Due to a lack of liquidity and transparency...
Broad-based commodity price declines
occurred in the second half of 2014. Crude oil prices
declined the most, down 55 percent to $47 per bbl (barrel)
in early January, from a high of $115 per bbl in late-June
2014, bringing an end to a four-year period of high and
stable prices. The oil price drop is the third-largest
seven-month decline of the past three decades - only the 67
percent drop from November 1985 to March 1986 and the 75
percent drop from July to December 2008 were larger.
Agricultural, metal, and precious metal prices weakened as
well, down by 6, 8, and 9 percent, respectively, in 2014
fourth quarter (Q4) from the previous quarter. Ample
supplies, disappointing global growth prospects, and an
appreciating Unites States (U.S.) dollar have all weighed on
prices. In oil markets, a sequence of (upward) supply and
(downward) demand revisions, along with organization of
petroleum exporting countries (OPEC's) abandoning of
supply management, have played a pivotal role in the price collapse.
Part 1 of the paper reviews recent
trends in fossil fuel use and associated externalities. It
also argues that the recent run-up in international oil
prices reflects growing concerns about supply constraints
associated with declining spare capacity in OPEC, refining
bottlenecks, and geopolitical uncertainties rather than
growing incremental use of oil by China and India. Part 2
compares two business as usual scenarios with a set of
alternate scenarios based on policy interventions on the
demand for or supply of energy and different assumptions
about rigidities in domestic and international energy
markets. The results suggest that energy externalities are
likely to worsen significantly if there is no shift in
China's and India's energy strategies. High energy
demand from China and India could constrain some developing
countries' growth through higher prices on
international energy markets, but for others the
"growth retarding" effects of higher energy prices
are partially or fully offset by the "growth
stimulating" effects of the larger markets in China and
India. Given that there are many inefficiencies in the
energy system in both China and India...
This paper investigates the adverse
effects of oil price volatility on economic activity and the
extent to which countries can hedge against such effects by
using renewable energy. By considering the Realized
Volatility of oil prices, rather than following the standard
approach of considering oil price shocks in levels, the
effects of factor price uncertainty on economic activity are
analyzed. Sample countries represent developed and
developing, oil importing and exporting and
service/industry-based economies (United States, Japan,
Germany, South Korea, India, and Malaysia) and thus
complement the standard literature's analysis of
Western OECD countries. In a vector auto-regressive setting,
Granger causality tests, impulse response functions, and
variance decompositions show that oil price volatility has
more-adverse effects in all sample countries than oil price
shocks alone can explain. The paper finds that the
sensitivity to oil price volatility varies widely across
countries and discusses various factors which may determine
the level of sensitivity (such as sectoral composition and
the energy mix). This implies that the standard approach of
solely considering net oil importer-exporter status is not
sufficient. Simulations of volatility shocks in hypothetical
energy mixes (with increased renewable shares) illustrate
the potential economic benefits resulting from efforts to
disconnect the macroeconomy from volatile commodity markets.
It is concluded that expanding renewable energy can in
principle reduce an economy's vulnerability to oil