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Assessing the Economic Recovery

Levy, Mickey D.
Fonte: William E. Simon Graduate School of Business Administration, University of Rochester Publicador: William E. Simon Graduate School of Business Administration, University of Rochester
ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.15%
The economy is recovering from recession and real GDP is above its prior expansion peak, but in several key aspects, the economic recovery has been weaker than in prior cycles. Perhaps the mild contraction of real GDP in 2001 set the stage for a moderate rebound, but other dimensions of recent performance have deviated from prior cyclical patterns. In particular, the sharp, sustained declines in stock valuations and expected rates of return--lower real interest rates--stand out uniquely, with significant implications. A comparison of recent economic performance with prior cycles suggests that while the recovery remains intact and sound underlying fundamentals continue to support healthy potential growth, the return to sustainable trend expansion following recession may take longer than normal.

Belarus Public Expenditure Review : Fiscal Reforms for a Sustainable Economic Recovery

World Bank
Fonte: World Bank Publicador: World Bank
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.11%
Belarus faces significant fiscal challenges, stemming from the structural features of its economic model. As of mid-2011, under a severe exchange rate and balance of payments crisis, the Government needs to pursue a carefully sequenced strategy of macroeconomic adjustment coupled with a strong program of structural reforms. This programmatic Public Expenditure Review (PER) fiscal policy options to simultaneously tackle the need for fiscal consolidation as well as the structural challenges with significant fiscal linkages. The options for fiscal reform proposed in this report are estimated to generate average net fiscal savings of 3.9 percent of Gross Domestic product (GDP) annually over the medium term. Given the implied structural changes in the expenditure program, the fiscal impact of these reforms extends beyond the four year projection period.

Argentina : Sources of Growth, Seeking Sustained Economic Growth with Social Equity

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.28%
This report attempts to analyze selected topics, chosen in collaboration with the Argentine authorities, regarding the inter-linkages between economic growth, income distribution and poverty, as well as the respective roles of these factors in explaining the historical underperformance of the Argentine economy. The report aims to identify relevant issues for policy formulation and further economic work. Its emphasis is on longer-term structural factors which are thought to determine productivity and income distribution. The report is organized as follows. Chapter 2 briefly reviews the time-dynamics o f economic growth, poverty and inequality in Argentina. Sections of the chapter study the evolution of poverty and inequality. It is noted that inequality has increased dramatically, though not monotonically, since 1990 and, notably, increases in inequality were observed in periods of both growth and recession. Chapter 3 reviews the latest episode o f economic volatility in Argentina, a period that started with the sharp decline o f economic activity in 2002 and continued with a recovery since 2003. Special attention is paid to the impact of this recent volatility on economic growth, poverty and inequality. The sections study the social impact of the recent crisis and recovery; employing different methodologies to test whether the recent recovery was pro-poor. It also analyzes the recession and recovery at the sector level...

Employment Recovery in Europe and Central Asia

Koettl, Johannes; Oral, Isil; Santos, Indhira
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.2%
Despite high unemployment in most Eastern Europe and Central Asia (ECA) countries, people have not withdrawn from the labor market but continue to actively look for jobs. Unemployment increased significantly in ECA countries during the crisis, particularly among youth. However, young people are also the ones benefiting most from the recovery. Labor market recovery remained sluggish up to the third quarter of 2010. Many countries have seen only a slight recovery in unemployment rates, although output is recovering everywhere. Up to the third quarter of 2010, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) upturn in most ECA countries appeared to be driven by increases in productivity and hours worked; however, these are still below pre-crisis levels. This suggests that there is room in most countries for further increases in productivity and hours worked, which could delay the recovery in employment.

Mitigating the Impact of the Economic Crisis on Public Sector Health Spending

Schneider, Pia
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.04%
The current global financial crisis is having a substantial impact in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) where economic growth is beginning to dip, unemployment is rising and government revenues are being cut. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate of the region is projected to decline by 4.7 percent in 2009 and the flow of remittances is also expected to slow down sharply, causing particular hardship to low-income groups. While countries with fiscal capacity have adopted stimulus packages to promote economic recovery, most ECA countries are financially constrained and have revised their government budgets, including in the health sector. Thus, as a result of the crisis, public spending on health may actually decrease in absolute amounts and in percentage of GDP. The health sectors in most ECA countries are mainly financed from public sources. In countries with low levels of public spending on health3, the majority of health services are paid for by patients. Any reductions in public health spending would thus only add to the out-of-pocket expenditures of patients...

Bulgaria : Household Welfare during the 2010 Recession and Recovery

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.16%
This report assesses the impact of the 2009 recession and the fragile recovery of 2010 on the welfare of Bulgarian households and the effectiveness of Government policies in mitigating its costs. By the beginning of 2009, the global economic crisis had affected much of Europe, including Bulgaria. The output decline lasted five quarters, followed by a modest increase during the rest of 2010. However, despite the large fluctuation in output during 2009-10, households preserved their 2008 income level throughout this period. What lies behind this example of successful income smoothing amid a large regional and national recession? Which were the key transmission channels through which the macro crisis filtered through to the household level? What population groups were most affected? What was the role played by public policy in mitigating the impact of the crisis? What lessons can be learned from the Bulgarian experience on protecting households during a crisis, while maintaining prudent fiscal and macroeconomic policies? To answer these questions...

Global Economic Prospects and the Developing Countries 2003 : Investing to Unlock Global Opportunities

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.17%
Strong cyclical dynamics, together with an easing of macroeconomic policies in the United States and elsewhere, have boosted large parts of the global economy, into the initial phase of a recovery in 2002. Nonetheless, the global recovery is fragile, because investment spending is insufficient to underpin continuing growth, although long-term prospects remain promising. Although global competition is creating new opportunities for developing countries, harnessing globalization requires reducing barriers to competition, using targeted interventions carefully, but essentially, supported by sound public investments. International agreements on investment, and competition policies can provide benefits through reciprocity, while agreements on investment policy are likely to have strong development effects, only if they deal with the big issues facing developing countries. Consequently, competition agreements should focus on restraints to competition that hurt developing countries: policy barriers in markets abroad; private restraints on competition; and...

South East Europe Six : From Double-Dip Recession to Accelerated Reforms

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.2%
This note discusses the external environment, economic outlook, and key policy challenges for the six South East European Countries (SEE6)-Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina (BIH), Kosovo, the former Yugoslav Republic (FYR) of Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia-as they seek to reignite economic recovery. After two years of fragile recovery from the global recession, as a group, SEE6 countries experienced a double-dip recession in 2012. Deteriorating external conditions, the impact of the severe winter on economic activity, and a continuing rise in unemployment early in the year took a toll on consumption, investments, and exports. The rise in unemployment continues to threaten the social fabric. Credit recovery and fiscal consolidation are under threat. Nonperforming loans (NPLs)-thought to be stabilizing only a few months ago-are again on the rise. As a result, both within and outside the region, the environment has become much more difficult to navigate, and the policy trade-offs necessary to stabilize economies and reignite growth have become more difficult to make. To overcome these challenges...

Employment Recovery Stalls in Europe and Central Asia

Koettl, Johannes; Mata, Elizabeth; Saiovici, Gady; Santos, Indhira
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.12%
Employment recovery stalls in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) continues to recover in most ECA countries, but the recovery remains fragile. Growth prospects remain poor in a number of countries where GDP continues to decline. This slowdown in the economic recovery is also evident at the sub-regional level. Unemployment has stabilized, with an average unemployment rate of 12 percent across the ECA region. Since the start of the crisis, men have been disproportionally hit by unemployment. The recent pace of job creation has not been sufficient to absorb the large pool of unemployed, resulting in growing long-term unemployment. Despite the rise in long-term unemployment, activity rates have increased or remained constant in most countries since 2008. ECA labor markets adjusted to the crisis not only through higher unemployment, but also through fewer work hours. Given the already low levels of employment in the region and a bleak demographic outlook, avoiding labor market detachment among the long-term unemployed...

Harnessing the Global Recovery : A Tough Road Ahead

Mottaghi, Lili
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.18%
Compared with the past three years, 2014 seems hopeful and 2015 can be a turning point for Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries. After a slowdown in 2013, recovery in high income economies is expected to boost global growth to 3.2 percent in 2014, an increase of 0.8 percent from 2013. Global output is to improve further in 2015 with real gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 3.4 percent. In addition to growth expansion in the United States, the United Kingdom, as well modest recovery in the Euro zone countries, global growth will continue to be driven by growth in developing countries, expected to be between 5.3 to 5.5 percent in 2014 and 2015 respectively, led by China and India. Higher global demand is expected to boost MENA energy and manufactured exports in countries that have trade linkages with high-income countries. MENA countries share many structural problems that have prevented economies from moving to a higher, sustainable growth path. Fiscal spending in almost all MENA countries is dominated by a large civil-service wage bill and general subsidies. The global recovery remains fragile and downside risks...

Building peace in Bougainville: measuring recovery post conflict

Chand, Satish
Fonte: ANU Research School of Pacific and Asian Studies, State, Society and Governance in Melanesia Program Publicador: ANU Research School of Pacific and Asian Studies, State, Society and Governance in Melanesia Program
Tipo: Working/Technical Paper Formato: 20 pages
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.05%
This paper documents the socio-economic status of the Autonomous Region of Bougainville and the extent of rebound in investment and access to services since the cessation of conflict there in 1997. Data on the level of income, the age profile of the population, the level of access to basic services, and levels of investment in residential housing were collected via a household-level survey that was administered in the four major urban centres. The analysis of these data shows that per capita income has rebounded to 40 per cent of the pre-conflict level; approximately half of the total population is aged less than 20 years; and one-third of school age children are not attending school. These observations have value in assessing the extent of economic recovery following the installation of peace and the levels of public investment required for improving access to basic services.

Back from the Brink : Thailand's Response to the 1997 Economic Crisis

Nabi, Ijaz; Shivakumar, Jayasankar
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication; Publications & Research :: Publication
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.1%
This essay reviews the traumatic experience of Thailand's economy during 1997-1999, describes the policy response, and draws lessons for the future. Whereas the country's economic performance until 1996, was exemplary within the developing world - consistent growing, high gross domestic product rates, exports expansion, and in-flow of foreign capital - the financial downturn of 1997 gave way to a deep economic recession, which diminished asset values, and threatened to unleash large-scale unemployment. The book analyzes the crisis, highlighting the tension, and controversy that surrounded structural reform, and, describes the ongoing legal, regulatory, and institutional reforms - all designed to ensure prudent decision-making by Thai bankers, and corporations. The book concludes with an outline of the steps needed to complete the reform program, in a way that will consolidate the fragile economic recovery, and allow sustained growth. The economic history of the crisis - highlighted in Figure 1-1 - shows the movements of selected indicators of the economy...

South East Europe Regular Economic Report No. 6 : Brittle recovery

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Economic Updates and Modeling
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.23%
This report covers economic developments, prospects, and policies in six South Eastern European countries (SEE6): Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, FYR Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia. South East Europe (SEE6)'s economy recovered from the 2012 recession, growing by 2.2 percent on average in 2013. Each of the SEE6 countries marked positive growth rates in 2013, with growth at or exceeding 3 percent in Kosovo, FYR Macedonia and Montenegro. External demand for SEE6 exports, especially by the European Union (EU), was the key driver of the recovery. On the production side, SEE6 drivers of growth were mixed, but in all countries a good agricultural year supported economic activity. An export-led recovery combined with depressed domestic demand resulted in a significant narrowing of current account imbalances in all SEE6 countries. Foreign direct investment (FDI) and portfolio investment financed most of the current account deficits in SEE6. Overall, SEE6 countries are having limited success in translating the economic recovery into job creation. SEE6 countries reduced their fiscal deficits to 3.8 percent of GDP in 2013 from 4.3 percent of GDP in 2012. The pace of fiscal adjustment and still nascent economic growth were insufficient to reverse public debt dynamics in SEE6. In a low-inflation environment...

Twenty-Seven Months - Intifada, Closures, and Palestinian Economic Crisis : An Assessment

World Bank
Fonte: World Bank Publicador: World Bank
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Policy Note; Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.2%
"Twenty-Seven Months - Intifada, Closures and Palestinian Economic Crisis: An Assessment" was prepared as a follow-up to a report published in March 2002 ("Fifteen Months - Intifada, Closures and Palestinian Economic Crisis" report no. 24931). The main objectives of this second Assessment are once again to help donors and the Palestinian Authority (PA) cope with the deep economic crisis in the West Bank and Gaza, as well as to encourage and inform discussion on Palestinian economic issues among the donors, the PA and the Government of Israel. Despite an inevitable preoccupation with short-term emergency issues, the report seeks to preserve a focus on the types of medium-term economic and institutional policies that will return to prominence once the current conflict ceases to dominate the daily lives of Palestinians and Israelis. While any short-term recovery will depend on the lifting of closures, this will not suffice to put the Palestinian economy onto a sustainable growth path. The de facto customs union with Israel formalized under the Paris Protocol makes the Palestinian economy particularly vulnerable to closure. In a structural sense...

East Asia and the Pacific Confronts the “New Normal”

Nehru, Vikram
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Brief; Publications & Research
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.22%
Developing East Asia is leading the global economic recovery, although performance varies across the region. In some countries, the monetary stance is already being tightened in light of emerging inflationary pressures; but it is premature to withdraw the fiscal stimulus until the global recovery is on a firmer footing. Fortunately, most countries in the region have adequate fiscal space and relatively low debt burdens. To ensure that the momentum of the recovery transitions into sustainable and inclusive growth over the medium term, the governments in the region must once again focus their attention on medium-term structural reforms. This means different policy priorities in different countries especially given the diversity of the region. In addition, the region faces two common priorities regional economic integration and climate change. Making progress on both fronts will be critical to the region's medium-term prospects.

Serbia and Montenegro : Republic of Montenegro, Economic Memorandum, A Policy for Growth and Competitiveness

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Country Economic Memorandum; Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.14%
Beginning in the late 1990s, Montenegro's economic reform program reached momentum in the early 2000s. Its reform program rested on two broad pillars: macroeconomic stabilization, and market-oriented structural reforms. However, the macroeconomic and structural reforms have yielded modest economic recovery and transition, holding a current account deficit, which although still high, is improving; yet its principal human welfare indicators such as poverty, life expectancy, and adult literacy remained moderate and stable. But significant challenges remain. Three key challenges confront policy makers in Montenegro. First, past economic growth has been inadequate. Second, the limited growth recovery has not been accompanied by employment growth. Third, despite reforms, Montenegro has become less competitive over the last four years: its real exchange rate, based on movements in unit labor costs, has risen much faster than that of the European Union (EU) zone and the United States. Therefore, recommendations suggest key labor market reforms need to be undertaken to increase employment, growth, and competitiveness, through specific measures to: control the rapid wage growth witnessed in recent years; relax some aspects of the labor regulations; and...

Cambodia Economic Update, April 2014 : Coping with Domestic Pressures and Gaining from a Strengthened Global Economy

World Bank
Fonte: Phnom Penh Publicador: Phnom Penh
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Economic Updates and Modeling
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.09%
Cambodia's economy has withstood domestic pressures and managed to sustain its high growth driven by its usual engines of growth. The external sector improved as a result of slower imports due to dampened domestic demand. The post-election adverse effects slowed down the demand for imports, while export growth advanced. Inflation rose to 4.7 percent year-on-year at the end of 2013, up from 2.5 percent at the end of 2012. Inflation is projected to remain in mid-single-digits over the short term. Financial deepening continues but the gap between credit and deposit growth rates has widened, reducing bank liquidity. Government revenue growth has moderated, resulting in an increase in the fiscal deficit. The latest joint World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) debt-sustainability analysis (DSA) conducted in 2013 shows that Cambodia's debt-distress rating remains low, with all debt-burden indicators projected to be below respective thresholds. The prospects for sustaining high growth appear favorable...

Martin Bronfenbrenner and Japan's Post-WWII Economic Recovery

Basandra, Nitish; Srinivas, Shreyas
Fonte: Universidade Duke Publicador: Universidade Duke
Publicado em 16/04/2012
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.05%
This paper explores the economic recovery of post-World War II Japan through the eyes of the late Duke professor and American economist Martin Bronfenbrenner. Specifically, we address the period of US Occupation from 1947-1952, detailing how Bronfenbrenner sensitized America to Japanese economics. Along the way, Bronfenbrenner faced several obstacles as his loyalty to the US was questioned due to his growing attachment to the Japanese culture and passion for its crisis. Using a methodological approach, we begin with Bronfenbrenner’s initial encounter with a fallen Japan, and conclude with a thorough analysis of his vision for Japan’s reconstruction.; Honors Thesis

High policy uncertainty, the responsibility of which rests with both major political parties, has been undermining the US economic recovery

Van Reenen, John; Bloom, Nick; Baker, Scott; Davis, Stephen
Fonte: Blog post from London School of Economics & Political Science Publicador: Blog post from London School of Economics & Political Science
Tipo: Website; NonPeerReviewed Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 26/10/2012 EN; EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.02%
John van Reenen, Nicholas Bloom, Scott Baker and Steven Davis argue that one of the factors behind the sluggish economic recovery in the US is increased policy uncertainty. In their view, the two parties and the polarisation of politics are responsible for the high uncertainty. Regardless of who wins the presidency, the two houses of Congress are likely to remain divided by party, thus increasing political polarisation. This analysis provides a clear warning for the UK regarding the negative economic effects of policy uncertainty and the dangers of political polarisation.

Economic recovery and policy uncertainty

Baker, Scott R.; Davis, Steven J.; Bloom, Nick; Van Reenen, John
Fonte: The London School of Economics and Political Science, Center of Economic Performance Publicador: The London School of Economics and Political Science, Center of Economic Performance
Tipo: Monograph; NonPeerReviewed Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em /10/2012 EN; EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.02%
Until some political mechanism creates incentives to elect moderate representatives who can reach across the ideological divide, the US seems destined to heightened levels of policy uncertainty for many years to come. Some research suggests that such uncertainty, particularly over economic policy, partly explains the sluggish nature of the recovery in America – and - according to one recent study, restoring policy uncertainty to levels that prevailed before the financial crisis would raise employment by an estimated 2.3 million over 18-24 months.