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Discount rates in PPP projects, survey of literature and the Portuguese case

Santos, Alexandre Marques dos
Fonte: Universidade Católica Portuguesa Publicador: Universidade Católica Portuguesa
Tipo: Dissertação de Mestrado
Publicado em 15/09/2014 ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.6%
This dissertation has five main purposes. First, to gather literature on the discount rates used by public entities and governments to assess PPP projects. Second, to typify descriptively the models used to calculate these discount rates. The most used models are: the Social Time Preference rate (STPR), the Social Opportunity Cost of Capital (SOCC), a weighted average between STPR and SOCC, and the long-term government bond. Third, to compare the usage in different countries and to analyze implications of different usage in Portugal. In order to analyze these implications in Portugal, several discount rates are calculated using these previous methods. Then, these are used to discount the future payments regarding the 36 PPP projects operating in Portugal. The differences in the NPVs are analyzed. Amongst the major results, if one used the SOCC method there would have been a lighter burden to the State. Fifth, the Portuguese case in PPPs is carefully discussed. The debate on payments to PPPs and the discount rate issue is addressed. The fact that PPPs allow shifting financial responsibilities to the future, linked with the lack of a risk assessment to the contracts led to the enormous burden to the State. Since 2003, the Portuguese legal rate is fixed at 6.08%...

Individual laboratory-measured discount rates predict field behavior

Chabris, Christopher F.; Laibson, David; Morris, Carrie L.; Schuldt, Jonathon P.; Taubinsky, Dmitry
Fonte: PubMed Publicador: PubMed
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em 01/12/2008 EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.64%
We estimate discount rates of 555 subjects using a laboratory task and find that these individual discount rates predict inter-individual variation in field behaviors (e.g., exercise, BMI, smoking). The correlation between the discount rate and each field behavior is small: none exceeds 0.28 and many are near 0. However, the discount rate has at least as much predictive power as any variable in our dataset (e.g., sex, age, education). The correlation between the discount rate and field behavior rises when field behaviors are aggregated: these correlations range from 0.09-0.38. We present a model that explains why specific intertemporal choice behaviors are only weakly correlated with discount rates, even though discount rates robustly predict aggregates of intertemporal decisions.

A 5-trial adjusting delay discounting task: Accurate discount rates in less than 60 seconds

Koffarnus, Mikhail N.; Bickel, Warren K.
Fonte: PubMed Publicador: PubMed
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.75%
Individuals who discount delayed rewards at a high rate are more likely to engage in substance abuse, overeating, or problem gambling. Findings such as these suggest the value of methods to obtain an accurate and fast measurement of discount rate that can be easily deployed in variety of settings. In the present study, we developed and evaluated the 5-trial adjusting delay task, a novel method of obtaining discount rate in less than one minute. We hypothesized that discount rates from the 5-trial adjusting delay task would be similar and correlated with discount rates from a lengthier task we have used previously, and that four known effects relating to delay discounting would be replicable with this novel task. To test these hypotheses, the 5-trial adjusting delay task was administered to 111 college students six times to obtain discount rates for six different commodities, along with a lengthier adjusting amount discounting task. We found that discount rates were similar and correlated between the 5-trial adjusting delay task and the adjusting amount task. Each of the four known effects relating to delay discounting was replicated with the 5-trial adjusting delay task to varying degrees. First, discount rates were inversely correlated with amount. Second...

Essays on Time-Varying Discount Rates

Dew-Becker, Ian
Fonte: Harvard University Publicador: Harvard University
Tipo: Thesis or Dissertation
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.21%
Economics

Individual Laboratory-Measured Discount Rates Predict Field Behavior

Chabris, Christopher F.; Laibson, David I.; Morris, Carrie L.; Schuldt, Jonathon P.; Taubinsky, Dmitry
Fonte: Springer-Verlag Publicador: Springer-Verlag
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.64%
We estimate discount rates of 555 subjects using a laboratory task and find that these individual discount rates predict inter-individual variation in field behaviors (e.g., exercise, BMI, smoking). The correlation between the discount rate and each field behavior is small: none exceeds 0.28 and many are near 0. However, the discount rate has at least as much predictive power as any variable in our dataset (e.g., sex, age, education). The correlation between the discount rate and field behavior rises when field behaviors are aggregated: these correlations range from 0.09–0.38. We present a model that explains why specific intertemporal choice behaviors are only weakly correlated with discount rates, even though discount rates robustly predict aggregates of intertemporal decisions.; Economics

The Social Discount Rate : Estimates for Nine Latin American Countries

Lopez, Humberto
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.7%
The social discount rate measures the rate at which a society would be willing to trade present for future consumption. As such it is one of the most critical inputs needed for cost-benefit analysis. This paper presents estimates of the social discount rates for nine Latin American countries. It is argued that if the recent track record in terms of growth in the region is indicative of future performance, estimates of the social discount rate would be in the 3-4 percent range. However, to the extent that the region improves on its past performance, the social discount rate to be used in the evaluation of projects would increase to the 5-7 percent range. The paper also argues that if the social planner gives a similar chance to the low and high growth scenario, the discount rate should be dependent on the horizon of the project, declining from 4.4 percent for a 25-year horizon to less than 4 percent for a 100-year horizon.

Why Should We Care About Child Labor? The Education, Labor Market, and Health Consequences of Child Labor

Beegle, Kathleen; Dehejia, Rajeev; Gatti, Roberta
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.21%
Although there is extensive literature on the determinants of child labor and many initiatives aimed at combating it, there is limited evidence on the consequences of child labor on socioeconomic outcomes such as education, wages, and health. The authors evaluate the causal effect of child labor participation on these outcomes using panel data from Vietnam and an instrumental variables strategy. Five years subsequent to the child labor experience, they find significant negative effects on school participation and educational attainment, but also find substantially higher earnings for those (young) adults who worked as children. The authors find no significant effects on health. Over a longer horizon, they estimate that from age 30 onward the forgone earnings attributable to lost schooling exceed any earnings gain associated with child labor and that the net present discounted value of child labor is positive for discount rates of 11.5 percent or higher. The authors show that child labor is prevalent among households likely to have higher borrowing costs, that are farther from schools, and whose adult members experienced negative returns to their own education. This evidence suggests that reducing child labor will require facilitating access to credit and will also require households to be forward looking.

Altruism and egoism: measurable by utility discount rates?

Bayer, Stefan
Fonte: Universität Tübingen Publicador: Universität Tübingen
Tipo: ResearchPaper
DE_DE
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.33%
Altruism and egoism: measurable by utility discount rates?

United States Marine Corps personal discount rates as evidenced from voluntary separation payment programs

Deichert, Martin K.
Fonte: Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School Publicador: Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.54%
Personal discount rates can be defined as the rate at which Marines trade current dollars for future dollars. This research attempts to fill in the gaps in previous discount rate studies where Marine Corps data were omitted, by determining the personal discount rates for each individual who separated from the Marine Corps under the SSB or VSI voluntary separation payment programs between 1992 and 1997. This study also determined those personal, professional, and economic traits that had a significant influence on Marines during their separation payment option decisions. The findings of this research are similar to previous studies, indicating that the methodology applied in this study is accurate. The implications of this research for the Marine Corps are that manpower planners can use the determined personal discount rates to create policies that can target Marines who possess certain personal or professional characteristics for reduction or retention, thereby assisting the efforts to create a balanced and capable Marine Corps in the future. Planners can also use this research to anticipate the effect of policy changes on Marines with specific professional or personal traits.

An empirical analysis of the factors impacting discount rates: Evidence from the U.S. Marine Corps

Hensel, Nayantara; Deichert, Martin
Fonte: Escola de Pós-Graduação Naval Publicador: Escola de Pós-Graduação Naval
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.54%
The article of record as published may be located at http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rfe.2007.02.003; This analysis examines the impact of age, race, marital status, number of dependents, education, rank, years of service, and occupational code on personal discount rates. The study focuses on 3241 Marine Corps officers! enlisted personnel between 1992 and 1997 who separated from the Marine Corps through the VSI program (an annuity payment) or the SSB program (lump-sum payment). The analysis finds that, although the degree of statistical significance varied between the officer model and the enlisted model, holding other factors constant, females and individuals with more years of service or education were less likely to take the lump-sum payment, and that blacks and individuals with more dependents were more likely to take the lump-sum payment. Across all demographic factors, enlisted personnel had statistically significantly higher average discount rates than officers, as is consistent with prior studies. The estimated personal discount rates averaged 14.9% for officers and 24% for enlisted Marines. This study contributes to the literature in that it is the only study to examine the Marines during this time period. Many of the results can be generalized to the civilian sector to assist in fannulation of savings/ retirement policies.

Altruism and Egoism: Measurable by Utility Discount Rates?

Bayer, Stefan
Fonte: Universität Tübingen Publicador: Universität Tübingen
Tipo: (wissenschaftlicher) Artikel; info:eu-repo/semantics/article
EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.55%
Wir analysieren im Rahmen der neoklassischen Theorie die Rolle der Nutzendiskontierungsrate als Egoismus- bzw. Altruismusparameter. Dazu wird die Vorgehensweise der optimalen Wachstumstheorie mit unendlich lange lebendem repräsentativen Individuum mit der der OLG-Modellierungsweise verglichen. Besonderes Augenmerk wird auf die Formulierung der intertemporalen Wohlfahrtsfunktion gelegt. Es zeigt sich, daß Variationen einer Nutzendiskontierungsrate in Egoismus-Modellen selbst bei deren Reduzierung auf null nie altruistisches Verhalten abbilden können. Ausschließlich in diesem Fall wäre jedoch dem intergenerationellen Gleichbehandlungspostulat des Utilitarismus Genüge getan. In der Altruismus-Modellierung ergibt sich das methodische Problem der mehrfachen Berücksichtigung des selben Effektes. Altruismus ist um so stärker ausgeprägt, je geringer die Diskontierungsrate ist. Eine Gleichbehandlung heutiger und zukünftiger Generationen kann in diesem Fall unabhängig von der Höhe der Diskontierungsrate mathematisch exakt nie realisiert werden. In beiden Fällen ist die Entscheidung, ob altruistisches oder egoistisches Verhalten jetzt lebender Generationen modelliert werden soll, in erster Linie abhängig von der verwendeten Wohlfahrtsfunktion. Sie ist insbesondere unabhängig von der Nutzendiskontierungsrate selbst...

Evaluating Emergency Programs

Maloney, William F.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.33%
Emergency programs are designed to soften the impact of economic crises-income shocks experienced by an entire community or country-on consumption and human capital accumulation. Of particular concern are poor people: as a result of inadequate savings or inadequate access to credit or insurance markets, the poor are unable to draw on resources from better times to offset a loss in income today. Further, the systemic nature of the shocks means that risk cannot be effectively pooled through local informal insurance mechanisms. Emergency interventions have included social funds, workfare programs, training programs, conditional transfers (linked to health center visits or children's school attendance, for example), and traditional direct, unconditional transfers in kind (such as communal tables or targeted food handouts). The author highlights some conceptual problems in choosing among these options and evaluating one program of a certain type relative to another. It argues that most such interventions can be thought of as containing both a transfer and an investment component and that their evaluation as emergency programs needs to more explicitly incorporate the intertemporal nature of their design. More specifically...

Influence of discount price announcements on consumer's behavior; Influência dos anúncios de desconto sobre o comportamento dos consumidores; Influencia de los avisos de descuento sobre el comportamiento de los consumidores

Isabella, Giuliana; Pozzani, Alexandre Ierulo; Chen, Vinicios Anlee; Gomes, Murillo Buissa Perfi
Fonte: Fundação Getulio Vargas, Escola de Administração de Empresas de S.Paulo Publicador: Fundação Getulio Vargas, Escola de Administração de Empresas de S.Paulo
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.29%
The theoretical framework that underpins this research study is based on the Prospect Theory formulated by Kahneman and Tversky, and Thaler's Mental Accounting Theory. The research aims to evaluate the consumers' behavior when different patterns of discount are offered (in percentage and absolute value and for larger and smaller discounts). Two experiments were conducted to explore these patterns of behavior and the results that were obtained supported the view that the framing effect was a common occurrence. The patterns of choice of individuals in a sample were found to be different due to changes in the ways discounts were offered. This can be explained by the various ways of presenting discount rates that had an impact on the influence of purchase intentions, recommendations and quality perception.

INFLUENCE OF DISCOUNT PRICE ANNOUNCEMENTS ON CONSUMER'S BEHAVIOR

Isabella, Giuliana; Pozzani, Alexandre Ierulo; Chen, Vinicios Anlee; Perfi Gomes, Murillo Buissa
Fonte: FUNDACAO GETULIO VARGAS; SAO PAULO SP Publicador: FUNDACAO GETULIO VARGAS; SAO PAULO SP
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.29%
The theoretical framework that underpins this research study is based on the Prospect Theory formulated by Kahneman and Tversky, and Thaler's Mental Accounting Theory. The research aims to evaluate the consumers' behavior when different patterns of discount are offered (in percentage and absolute value and for larger and smaller discounts). Two experiments were conducted to explore these patterns of behavior and the results that were obtained supported the view that the framing effect was a common occurrence. The patterns of choice of individuals in a sample were found to be different due to changes in the ways discounts were offered. This can be explained by the various ways of presenting discount rates that had an impact on the influence of purchase intentions, recommendations and quality perception.

Influence of discount price announcements on consumer's behavior

Isabella,Giuliana; Pozzani,Alexandre Ierulo; Chen,Vinicios Anlee; Gomes,Murillo Buissa Perfi
Fonte: Fundação Getulio Vargas, Escola de Administração de Empresas de S.Paulo Publicador: Fundação Getulio Vargas, Escola de Administração de Empresas de S.Paulo
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: text/html
Publicado em 01/12/2012 EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.29%
The theoretical framework that underpins this research study is based on the Prospect Theory formulated by Kahneman and Tversky, and Thaler's Mental Accounting Theory. The research aims to evaluate the consumers' behavior when different patterns of discount are offered (in percentage and absolute value and for larger and smaller discounts). Two experiments were conducted to explore these patterns of behavior and the results that were obtained supported the view that the framing effect was a common occurrence. The patterns of choice of individuals in a sample were found to be different due to changes in the ways discounts were offered. This can be explained by the various ways of presenting discount rates that had an impact on the influence of purchase intentions, recommendations and quality perception.

Oil producing countries' discount rates

Adelman, Morris Albert
Fonte: MIT Energy Lab Publicador: MIT Energy Lab
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento Formato: 1761170 bytes; application/pdf
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.49%
The small LDCs which own the great bulk of oil resour- ces are rational agents and calculate with short horizons and high discount rates. They have pre-commitments to spend much (or even more than all) of their incomes, hence behave like highly leveraged corporations. They are also undiversified, hence the risk factors are set not by covariance with a diversified portfolio or sources of income, but rather by the variance of the oil income stream itself. Political risk is additional. High discount rates act both to raise and lower the depletion rate, so the net effect is indeterminate without knowledge of costs, not considered here. High discount rates sharply lower the effective elasticity of demand, and lead to a cartel policy of "take the money and run."; National Science Foundation, SES-8412971 and Center for Energy Policy Research of the M.I.T. Energy Laboratory

Stress hormones predict hyperbolic time-discount rates six months later in adults

Takahashi, Taiki; Shinada, Mizuho; Inukai, Keigo; Tanida, Shigehito; Takahashi, Chisato; Mifune, Nobuhiro; Takagishi, Haruto; Horita, Yutaka; Hashimoto, Hirofumi; Yokota, Kunihiro; Kameda, Tatsuya; Yamagishi, Toshio
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em 22/11/2011
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.64%
Objectives: Stress hormones have been associated with temporal discounting. Although time-discount rate is shown to be stable over a long term, no study to date examines whether individual differences in stress hormones could predict individuals' time-discount rates in the relatively distant future (e.g., six month later), which is of interest in neuroeconomics of stress-addiction association. Methods: We assessed 87 participants' salivary stress hormone (cortisol, cortisone, and alpha-amylase) levels and hyperbolic discounting of delayed rewards consisting of three magnitudes, at the time-interval of six months. For salivary steroid assays, we employed a liquid chromatography/ mass spectroscopy (LC/MS) method. The correlations between the stress hormone levels and time-discount rates were examined. Results: We observed that salivary alpha-amylase (sAA) levels were negatively associated with time-discount rates in never-smokers. Notably, salivary levels of stress steroids (i.e., cortisol and cortisone) negatively and positively related to time-discount rates in men and women, respectively, in never-smokers. Ever-smokers' discount rates were not predicted from these stress hormone levels. Conclusions: Individual differences in stress hormone levels predict impulsivity in temporal discounting in the future. There are sex differences in the effect of stress steroids on temporal discounting; while there was no sex defference in the relationship between sAA and temporal discounting.

Declining discount rates and the Fisher Effect: inflated past, discounted future?

Freeman, Mark C.; Groom, Ben; Panopoulou, Ekaterini; Pantelidis, Theologos
Fonte: Elsevier Publicador: Elsevier
Tipo: Article; PeerReviewed Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em //2015 EN; EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.47%
Uncertain and persistent real interest rates underpin one argument for using a declining term structure of social discount rates in the Expected Net Present Value (ENPV) framework. Despite being controversial, this approach has influenced both the Inter-Agency Working Group on Cost–Benefit Analysis and the UK government׳s guidelines on discounting. We first clarify the theoretical basis of the ENPV approach. Then, rather than following previous work which used a single series of U.S. Treasury bond returns, we treat nominal interest rates and inflation as co-integrated series and estimate the empirical term structure of discount rates via the ‘Fisher Effect’. This nests previous empirical models and is more flexible. It also addresses an irregularity in previous work which used data on nominal interest rates until 1950, and real interest rates thereafter. As we show, the real and nominal data have very different time series properties. This paper therefore provides a robustness check on previous discounting advice and updated methodological guidance at a time when governments around the world are reviewing their guidelines on social discounting. The policy implications are discussed in the context of the Social Cost of Carbon...

Intertemporal tradeoffs priced in interest rates and amounts: a study of method variance

Read, Daniel; Airoldi, Mara; Loewe, G
Fonte: Department of Operational Research, London School of Economics and Political Science Publicador: Department of Operational Research, London School of Economics and Political Science
Tipo: Monograph; NonPeerReviewed Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em /06/2005 EN; EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.55%
In intertemporal choice experiments people usually choose between smaller-sooner and larger-later amounts of money. That is, they make tradeoffs in terms of nominal amounts. Yet the factor governing intertemporal tradeoffs in the marketplace is usually the interest rate. In this study, we tested whether two major phenomena that occur when trading off nominal amounts, excessive discounting and the hyperbolic-interval effect, would also occur when trade-offs are made in terms of interest rates. They don’t. In a large-scale (N=1,960) internet study of Spanish consumers who made intertemporal tradeoffs for money, tradeoffs described in terms of nominal amounts induced high discount rates and a considerable hyperbolic-interval effect (replicating earlier studies). However, when they were described as both amounts and interest rates, discount rates were much lower, and there was no effect for how finely the interval was partitioned. When the tradeoffs were described as interest rates only, discount rates were even lower, and the hyperbolic-interval effect was reversed. Thus, some of the most-cited results in intertemporal choice research are unique to a specific way of eliciting discount rates.

Investigation of factors influencing the determination of discount rate in the economic evaluation of mineral development projects

Park,S-J; Matunhire,I.I
Fonte: Journal of the Southern African Institute of Mining and Metallurgy Publicador: Journal of the Southern African Institute of Mining and Metallurgy
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: text/html
Publicado em 01/11/2011 EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.56%
When evaluating mining investment opportunities, one should consider the risks associated with mineral exploration and development. These are commonly classified as technical, economic, and political risks, and are accounted for in the investment decision by changing the discount rate. Thus, a company may use different discount rates associated with varying risks in order to compensate for the variability of success. The discount rate has a tremendous effect on the economic evaluation of mineral projects. Even when all other factors used as inputs for calculating the NPV (net present value) are equal, the project under consideration may be accepted or rejected depending upon the discount rate. Determining a realistic discount rate for a given project is therefore the most difficult and important aspect of cash flow analysis. It should be determined with the consideration of proper technical, economic, and political conditions surrounding the specific project undergoing economic evaluation. One key problem for determining the appropriate discount rate is that it typically depends more on subjective perception of the degree of risk or other experience factors than on a systematic approach. Thus, this study aims to identify, analyse, and document the type...