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Three essays on local demand for public services

Menezes, Rafael Terra de
Fonte: Fundação Getúlio Vargas Publicador: Fundação Getúlio Vargas
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.85%
Local provision of public services has the positive effect of increasing the efficiency because each locality has its idiosyncrasies that determine a particular demand for public services. This dissertation addresses different aspects of the local demand for public goods and services and their relationship with political incentives. The text is divided in three essays. The first essay aims to test the existence of yardstick competition in education spending using panel data from Brazilian municipalities. The essay estimates two-regime spatial Durbin models with time and spatial fixed effects using maximum likelihood, where the regimes represent different electoral and educational accountability institutional settings. First, it is investigated whether the lame duck incumbents tend to engage in less strategic interaction as a result of the impossibility of reelection, which lowers the incentives for them to signal their type (good or bad) to the voters by mimicking their neighbors’ expenditures. Additionally, it is evaluated whether the lack of electorate support faced by the minority governments causes the incumbents to mimic the neighbors’ spending to a greater extent to increase their odds of reelection. Next, the essay estimates the effects of the institutional change introduced by the disclosure on April 2007 of the Basic Education Development Index (known as IDEB) and its goals on the strategic interaction at the municipality level. This institutional change potentially increased the incentives for incumbents to follow the national best practices in an attempt to signal their type to voters...

Forecasting demand in the clothing industry

Rodrigues, Eduardo J.; Figueiredo, Manuel
Fonte: SGAPEIO Publicador: SGAPEIO
Tipo: Conferência ou Objeto de Conferência
Publicado em 24/10/2013 ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
46%
For many clothing companies the range of goods sold is renewed twice a year. Each new collection includes a large number of new items which have a short and well defined selling period corresponding to one selling season (20-30 weeks). The absence of past sales data, changes in fashion and product design causes difficulties in forecasting demand accurately. Thus, the predominant factors in this environment are the difficulty in obtaining accurate demand forecasts and the short selling season for goods. An inventory management system designed to operate in this context is therefore constrained by the fact that demand for many goods will not generally continue into the future. Using data for one particular company, the accuracy of demand forecasts obtained by traditional profile methods is analysed and a new approach to demand forecasting using artificial neural networks is presented. Some of the main questions concerning the implementation of neural network models are discussed.; Fundos FEDER através do Programa Operacional Fatores de Competitividade – COMPETE e por Fundos Nacionais através da FCT – Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia, no âmbito do Projecto: FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER-022674.

Indonesia - Investing in the future of Papua and West Papua : Infrastructure for sustainable development

World Bank
Fonte: World Bank Publicador: World Bank
Relevância na Pesquisa
55.87%
The remote and sparsely populated provinces of Papua and West Papua face a time of great change. Monetary transfers from Jakarta have grown extraordinarily in recent years, by more than 600 percent in real terms and 1300 percent in nominal terms since 2000, greatly increasing demand for goods and services. The high price of imports in the interior is producing pressure to improve roads in order to lower transport costs. Pressure is mounting to open up the interior of the region to commercial interests that would like to extract resources: copper, gold, coal, petroleum, natural gas, and, above all, timber. Investment in infrastructure, especially in road transport, is seen as the means to make dreams of development a reality. Building infrastructure in Papua and West Papua also is challenging because of physical (i.e. topographical and geological) conditions. Much of the region has either poorly drained peat soils or steep slopes with thin soils subject to landslides and erosion. Most of Papua and West Papua also receive heavy seasonal rainfall. The cost of building a good...

Aid for Trade : Building on Progress Today for Tomorrow’s Future

Hoekman, Bernard; Wilson, John S.
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Relevância na Pesquisa
55.71%
Since 2005, donors and development agencies have increased the overall value of aid for trade and put in place several mechanisms to channel such aid and to ensure that it targets national priorities. This paper reviews recent trends in the allocation of aid for trade and analyses of its effectiveness. It identifies a number of opportunities for concerted action to enhance the impact of aid for trade initiatives, including greater involvement by middle-income countries in the initiative (through improved market access, investment flows, and knowledge transfers); deeper engagement with the private sector -- a key source of information on what works and what does not; a stronger focus on improving the "behind the border" policies that affect the efficiency of key services sectors and help determine firm-level competitiveness; and a stronger focus on monitoring and evaluation of results.

Avoiding Tokenism in Demand for Good Governance Activities : Lessons from World Bank-financed Lending Projects in Zambia

Kate Bridges
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
75.86%
This paper is based on an evaluation of the Zambian lending portfolio carried out in early 2011. The paper begins by explaining the demand for good governance (DFGG) concept, identifying its increasing prevalence as a theme in World Bank discourse, locating it in a broader development agenda, and drawing out its implications for World Bank projects. The paper then presents the Zambian lending projects as a case study, drawing out the factors that contribute to DFGG success and failure on the ground. The relevance of this Zambian case study is that it demonstrates some of the particular challenges of trying to move DFGG commitments from paper to practice. Nine projects are considered in total. Each project is assessed for DFGG mechanisms in the following four categories: transparency and information, participation and consultation, monitoring and oversight, and capacity enhancement. The established mechanisms are considered according to a set of following four criteria s: effectiveness, efficiency, inclusiveness, and sustainability. This paper presents a background and explanation of the DFGG concept...

Labor Market Implications of Switching the Currency Peg in a General Equilibrium Model for Lithuania

Pizzati, Lodovico
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, D.C. Publicador: World Bank, Washington, D.C.
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.99%
On February 2, 2002, Lithuania switched its currency anchor from the dollar to the euro. While pegging to the dollar (since April 1994) has proven successful throughout the transition years, the recent decision to peg to the euro was motivated by the increasing trade relations with European economies. Pizzati does not argue which peg is more appropriate, but he analyzes the implications of changing the exchange rate regime for different sectors and labor groups. While pegging to the euro entails more stability for the export sector, Lithuania is still dependent on dollar-based imports of primary goods from the Commonwealth of Independent States, more so than other Baltic countries or Central European economies. The author uses a multisector general equilibrium model to compare the effects of dollar-euro exchange rate movements under these alternative pegs. Overall, simulation results suggest that while a euro-peg will provide more stability to GDP and employment, it will also imply more volatility in prices...

Off and Running? Technology, Trade and the Rising Demand for Skilled Workers in Latin America

Sanchez-Paramo, Carolina; Schady, Norbert
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.04%
The authors describe the evolution of relative wages in five Latin American countries-Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Mexico. They use repeated cross-sections of household surveys, and decompose the evolution of relative wages into factors associated with changes in relative supply and relative demand. The authors have three main conclusions: 1) Increases in the relative wages of the most skilled (university-educated) workers took place concurrently with increases in their relative abundance in all of the countries except Brazil. This is strong evidence of increases in the demand for skilled workers. 2) Increases in the wage bill of skilled workers occurred largely within sectors, and in the same sectors in different countries, which is consistent with skill-biased technological change. 3) Trade appears to be an important transmission mechanism. Increases in the demand for the most skilled workers took place at a time when countries in Latin America considerably increased the penetration of imports, including imports of capital goods. The authors show that changes in the volume and research and development intensity of imports are significantly related to changes in the demand for more skilled workers in Latin America. Their research complements earlier work on the effects of technology transmitted through trade on productivity and on the demand for skilled labor.

What Are the Implications for Global Value Chains When the Market Shifts from the North to the South?

Kaplinsky, Raphael; Farooki, Masuma
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
55.82%
Rapid growth in many low-income economies was fuelled by the insertion of producers into global value chains feeding into high-income northern markets. This paper charts the evolution of financial and economic crisis in the global economy and argues that the likely outcome will be sustained growth in the two very large Asian Driver economies of China and India and stagnation in the historically dominant northern economies. Given the nature of demand in low-income southern economies, it is likely to be reflected in sustained demand for commodities, with other southern economy producers in global value chains being forced into lower levels of value added. Standards are likely to be of considerably reduced significance in value chains feeding into China and India.

Implications of a Changing China for Brazil : A New Window of Opportunity?

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.05%
As Brazil and China have become two of the largest global economies, they have also become increasingly connected. Three decades of fast-paced growth and structural change have turned China into the world s second-largest economy and have transformed it into an upper-middle income country. Brazil, which had experienced its own episode of high growth between 1965 and 1974, has also become one of the largest economies. Over the last decade, Brazil and China have developed increasingly close linkages, which has come as no surprise given the scale of their economies, the complementary structure of resource endowments as well as the differences between the two countries in the structure of production and demand. This report examines how structural change in China is expected to present new opportunities and challenges for Brazil to enhance its global position and energize growth. Building on recent work (World Bank and Development Research Center, 2013), this report identifies three potential longer-term transformations of the Chinese economy structurally slower growth...

A Globalized Market--Opportunities and Risks for the Poor : Global Poverty Report 2001

African Development Bank; Asian Development Bank; European Bank for Reconstruction and Development; Inter-American Development Bank; International Monetary Fund; World Bank
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
55.84%
The Global Poverty Report considers the effects of globalizing markets on poverty in developing countries. It outlines the channels through which increased trade openness can affect poverty and examines the evidence from four regions: Sub-Saharan Africa, Asia and the Pacific, Eastern Europe and Central Asia, and Latin America and the Caribbean. Written at the request of the G8, the report is the result of a joint effort of the regional development banks, the World Bank, and the International Monetary Fund. Increased openness can affect an economy in various ways, creating opportunities for the poor as well as risks. First, it can affect the prices of goods and services that the poor consume and produce, benefiting those who are net consumers of goods that become cheaper and those who can obtain higher prices for their products on international markets. Second, it can affect the demand for and returns to factors of production that the poor have to offer, such as labor. Third, it can affect government revenue and the resources available for antipoverty programs. Fourth...

Rwanda Economic Update, No. 7 : Managing Uncertainty for Growth and Poverty Reduction

World Bank Group
Fonte: Kigali, Rwanda Publicador: Kigali, Rwanda
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.04%
The Rwanda Economic Update reports on and synthesizes recent economic developments and places them in a medium-term and global context. It analyzes the implications of these developments and policies for the outlook for Rwanda s economy. Rwanda s economic growth recovered in the first three quarters of 2014. The economy grew 7.1 percent. Faster GDP growth reflected higher growth of the services sector, at 9.1 percent, up from 5.4 percent in 2013, when the economy suffered from the lagged impact of the 2012 aid shortfall. The first section on macroeconomic issues of this edition of the Rwanda Economic Update examines two key questions: What led to the growth recovery in the first three quarters of 2014, and what are growth prospects for 2014, 2015, and 2016? The growth recovery mainly reflected increased government expenditure, which boosted domestic demand such as private consumption and investment. The expansion of domestic demand was partially offset by lower external demand for Rwanda s traditional commodities. Higher government expenditure contributed to growth recovery in the services sector through government consumption of private services. Inflation declined throughout 2014, reflecting lower growth in import prices. The recent decline in oil prices is expected to contribute not only to lower inflation but also to more stable exchange rate...

The Impact of the Syrian Conflict on Lebanese Trade

Calì, Massimiliano; Harake, Wissam; Hassan, Fadi; Struck, Clemens
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Relatório
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.99%
The devastating civil war in Syria is arguably one of the major civil conflicts in recent times. The conflict started with protests in March 2011 and soon after escalated to a violent internal war with no end in sight to this date. The conflict has by the end of 2014 caused well in excess of 150,000 fatalities, and 6 million internally displaced people (UN), and led 3 million refugees to move out of the country (UNHCR). Beyond the human tragedy, the conflict has disrupted the functioning of the economy in many ways. It has destroyed infrastructure, prevented children from going to school, closed factories and deterred investments and trade. The economic effects of the war extend beyond the country’s borders affecting also the neighboring countries. In particular trade is one of the main channels through which the effects of the crisis are transmitted to neighboring countries. For example, the demand for goods and services in Syria is likely to have fallen thus affecting the many exporters to Syria in neighboring countries. Moreover...

The international demand for Thailand's rice exports

Warr, Peter; Wollmer, Frances J
Fonte: Universidade Nacional da Austrália Publicador: Universidade Nacional da Austrália
Tipo: Working/Technical Paper Formato: 32536 bytes; 349 bytes; application/pdf; application/octet-stream
EN_AU
Relevância na Pesquisa
55.79%
The familiar 'small country' assumption is tested empirically in this paper, focussing upon the long-run international demand for Thailand's rice exports and drawing upon recent developments in the statistical analysis of economic time series. A relatively robust long-run price elasticity of export demand is obtained, at just under 2. The literature on the export demand for manufactured goods has shown the central importance of the 'normalisation' used during estimation. Our results suggest that this issue may not be as important in the case of primary commodity exports, at least not where the exporting country possesses a degree of monopoly power.; no

Rwanda Economic Update, December 2013 : Seizing Opportunities for Growth

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Economic Updates and Modeling; Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.05%
Rwanda's economic growth slowed in the first half of 2013. Weighed by a slowdown in domestic demand, the economy grew at a modest rate. Decelerating GDP growth mirrored the low growth of services and was the lowest half-year growth rate since 2010, when the domestic economy was hard hit by the combination of the global financial crisis and a domestic credit crunch. This edition of the Rwanda Economic Update examines three key issues: 1) the cause for the economic slowdown; 2) whether the economic slowdown is temporary, or the beginning of further deceleration, and the forecasted growth for 2014; and 3) policy options for the authorities.

Comparative Advantage, Demand for External Finance, and Financial Development

Do, Quy-Toan; Levchenko, Andrei A.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
55.87%
The differences in the levels of financial development between industrial and developing countries are large and persistent. Theoretical and empirical literature has argued that these differences are the source of comparative advantage and could therefore shape trade patterns. This paper points out the reverse link: financial development is influenced by comparative advantage. The authors illustrate this idea using a model in which a country's financial development is an equilibrium outcome of the economy's productive structure: financial systems are more developed in countries with large financially intensive sectors. After trade opening demand for external finance, and therefore financial development, are higher in a country that specializes in financially intensive goods. By contrast, financial development is lower in countries that primarily export goods which do not rely on external finance. The authors demonstrate this effect empirically using data on financial development and export patterns in a panel of 96 countries over the period 1970-99. Using trade data, they construct a summary measure of a country's external finance need of exports and relate it to the level of financial development. In order to overcome the simultaneity problem...

The Transition from Communism: A Diagrammatic Exposition of Obstacles to the Demand for the Rule of Law

Hoff, Karla; Stiglitz, Joseph E.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, D.C. Publicador: World Bank, Washington, D.C.
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
55.77%
In an earlier paper, the authors presented a mathematical exposition of a theory that demonstrated that mass privatization without institutions to limit asset-stripping may not lead to a demand for the rule of law ["After the Big Bang? Obstacles to the Emergence of the Rule of Law in Post-Communist Societies," American Economic Review 94(3), June 2004, pages 753-63]. This report makes the same argument in terms of simple diagrams. The central idea is that economic actions (to build value or strip assets) and political positions of individuals are interdependent. "Big bang" privatization may give individuals an interest in taking what they can quickly, rather than waiting for the establishment of property rights protection that would permit them to build more valuable assets. Asset stripping gives some of these individuals an interest in prolonging the absence of the rule of law so that they can enjoy the fruits of stripping without the constraint of government enforcement of property rights. Each individual...

Structural Challenges for SOEs in Belarus : A Case Study of the Machine Building Sector

Favaro, Edgardo; Smits, Karlis; Bakanova, Marina
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.05%
Are Belarus's state owned enterprises positioned to grow in 2011-2015 as successfully as in 1995-2006? State owned enterprises account for 55 percent of Belarus's output and two-thirds of overall employment; economic growth in 1995-2006 was the result of capacity expansion and productivity improvements in state owned enterprises. These sources of economic growth originated in policy decisions that preserved the functioning of the command and control economy and allowed the country to exploit preferential commercial access to the Russian market in several goods and services. Are the same reasons likely to facilitate the performance of state owned enterprises and overall economic growth in 2011-2015? This paper concludes that this is not likely to happen. Times have changed: the slowdown in production and exports in 2009-2010 was unquestionably associated with a transitory decline in demand for durable goods in Russia. But there have also been more permanent market forces at work: a steady increase in competition in Russia and other Commonwealth of Independent States markets resulting from low-price Chinese and Russian-produced capital goods; and a shift in demand from low-quality/low price to high-quality...

Demand Collapse or Credit Crunch to Firms? Evidence from the World Bank's Financial Crisis Survey in Eastern Europe

Nguyen, Ha; Qian, Rong
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
55.82%
While there is a consensus that the 2008-2009 crisis was triggered by financial market disruptions in the United States, there is little agreement on whether the transmission of the crisis and the subsequent prolonged recession are due to credit factors or to a collapse of demand for goods and services. This paper assesses whether the primary effect of the global crisis on Eastern European firms took the form of an adverse demand shock or a credit crunch. Using a unique firm survey conducted by the World Bank in six Eastern European countries during the 2008-2009 financial crisis, the paper shows that the drop in demand for firms' products and services was overwhelmingly reported as the most damaging adverse effect of the crisis. Other "usual suspects," such as rising debt or reduced access to credit, are reported as minor. The paper also finds that the changes in firms' sales and installed capacity are significantly and robustly correlated with the demand sensitivity of the sector in which the firms operate. However...

The effect of water quality on demand for safe drinking water in rural and peri-urban Cambodia

Fonte: Universidade Duke Publicador: Universidade Duke
Tipo: Masters' project
Publicado em 20/04/2012
Relevância na Pesquisa
55.85%
Executive Summary Policy Question How does perceived drinking water quality affect household willingness to pay (WTP) for clean water in rural Cambodia? Background Inadequate access to improved water and sanitation in the developing world continues to be a major public health and development challenge. UNICEF estimates that nearly 2 million child deaths are attributable to diarrhea (UNICEF, 2008). The excessive burden of diarrhea-related morbidity and mortality is partly attributable to inadequate access to safe drinking water. Poor access to high-quality and convenient water sources may partly be a problem of low demand (Whittington et al., 2009). In fact, there is relatively limited evidence in the literature on demand for water and sanitation services. In this paper, we consider the demand for improved water quality only (rather than changes in both quality and convenience) in two communities in Kandal province, Cambodia. Importantly, many households in these communities already have access to convenient sources of water, either in the form of private connections to piped water networks, or via rainwater harvesting and storage where they live. These sources, however, are of variable quality, and water treatment, both at the system or household-level...

Preferences for fair prices, cursed inferences, and the nonneutrality of money

Eyster, Erik; Madarász, Kristóf; Michaillat, Pascal
Fonte: Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) Publicador: Centre for Economic Performance (CEP)
Tipo: Monograph; NonPeerReviewed Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em /02/2015 EN; EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
55.59%
This paper explains the nonneutrality of money from two assumptions: (1) consumers dislike paying prices that exceed some fair markup on firms’ marginal costs; and (2) consumers under infer marginal costs from available information. After an increase in money supply, consumers underappreciate the increase in nominal marginal costs and hence partially misattribute higher prices to higher markups; they perceive transactions as less fair, which increases the price elasticity of their demand for goods; firms respond by reducing markups; in equilibrium, output increases. By raising perceived markups, increased money supply inflicts a psychological cost on consumers that can offset the benefit of increased output.