Página 1 dos resultados de 146 itens digitais encontrados em 0.001 segundos

A note on purchasing power parity and the choice of price index

Terra,Cristina; Vahia,Ana Lucia
Fonte: Fundação Getúlio Vargas Publicador: Fundação Getúlio Vargas
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: text/html
Publicado em 01/03/2008 EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
16.56%
The PPP argument states that the currencies purchasing power should be the same across countries for the same basket of tradable goods. We run a horse race among six different price indices to see which one yields higher PPP evidence, and, therefore, better fits this criterion. Using export unit values, WPIs, value added deflators, unit labor costs, normalized unit labor costs and CPIs for 16 countries from 1975 to 2002, unit root tests show that WPI was the index for which PPP evidence was found for the larger number of countries. No evidence of PPP was found for the ratio CPI/WPI.

Measuring science: An exploration

Adams, James; Griliches, Zvi
Fonte: The National Academy of Sciences of the USA Publicador: The National Academy of Sciences of the USA
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em 12/11/1996 EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
16.56%
This paper examines the available United States data on academic research and development (R&D) expenditures and the number of papers published and the number of citations to these papers as possible measures of “output” of this enterprise. We look at these numbers for science and engineering as a whole, for five selected major fields, and at the individual university field level. The published data in Science and Engineering Indicators imply sharply diminishing returns to academic R&D using published papers as an “output” measure. These data are quite problematic. Using a newer set of data on papers and citations, based on an “expanding” set of journals and the newly released Bureau of Economic Analysis R&D deflators, changes the picture drastically, eliminating the appearance of diminishing returns but raising the question of why the input prices of academic R&D are rising so much faster than either the gross domestic product deflator or the implicit R&D deflator in industry. A production function analysis of such data at the individual field level follows. It indicates significant diminishing returns to “own” R&D, with the R&D coefficients hovering around 0.5 for estimates with paper numbers as the dependent variable and around 0.6 if total citations are used as the dependent variable. When we substitute scientists and engineers in place of R&D as the right-hand side variables...

Global trends in health research and development expenditures – the challenge of making reliable estimates for international comparison

Young, Alison J; Terry, Robert F; Røttingen, John-Arne; Viergever, Roderik F
Fonte: BioMed Central Publicador: BioMed Central
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em 24/01/2015 EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
17.14%
Better estimates of changes in the level and structure of national, regional, and global expenditures on health research and development (R&D) are needed as an important source of information for advancing countries’ health research policies. However, such estimates are difficult to compile and comparison between countries needs careful calibration. We outline the steps that need to be taken to make reliable estimates of trends in countries’ expenditures on health R&D, describe that an ideal approach would involve the use of international sets of deflators and exchange rates that are specific to health R&D activities, and explain which methods should be used given the current absence of such health R&D-specific deflators and exchange rates. Finally, we describe what should be the way forward in improving our ability to make reliable estimates of trends in countries’ health R&D expenditures.

Relative Deprivation, Reference Groups and the Assessment of Standard of Living

Silber, Jacques; Verme, Paolo
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Relevância na Pesquisa
16.56%
This paper proposes two new indices of relative deprivation, derived from an extension of the concept of the generalized Gini for the measurement of distributional change. Population- and income-weighted relative deprivation indices are then defined and, using panel data from the Consortium of Household Panels for European Socio-Economic Research, this paper checks which of the various ways of defining individual deprivation best fits the answers given by individuals on the degree of their satisfaction with income. The analysis finds that the deprivation indices proposed are consistently and negatively correlated with income satisfaction as reported by respondents, that income weighted measures fit better than population weighted measures, and that this fit improves with countries that experienced deep institutional changes such as the transitional economies of Eastern Europe.

Services liberalization and productivity of manufacturing firms : Evidence from Ukraine

Shepotylo, Oleksandr; Vakhitov, Volodymyr
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Relevância na Pesquisa
16.56%
This paper brings new evidence on the impact of services liberalization on the performance of manufacturing firms. Using a unique database of Ukrainian firms in 2001-2007, the authors utilize an external push for liberalization in the services sector as a source of exogenous variation to identify the impact of services liberalization on total factor productivity (TFP) of manufacturing firms. The results indicate that a standard deviation increase in services liberalization is associated with a 9 percent increase in TFP. Allowing services liberalization to dynamically influence TFP through the investment channel leads to an even larger effect. The effect is robust to different estimation methods and to different sub-samples of the data. In particular, it is more pronounced for domestic and small firms.

Small Area Estimation-Based Prediction Methods to Track Poverty : Validation and Applications

Christiaensen, Luc; Lanjouw, Peter; Luoto, Jill; Stifel, David
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Relevância na Pesquisa
17.45%
Tracking poverty is predicated on the availability of comparable consumption data and reliable price deflators. However, regular series of strictly comparable data are only rarely available. Price deflators are also often missing or disputed. In response, poverty prediction methods that track consumption correlates as opposed to consumption itself have been developed. These methods typically assume that the estimated relation between consumption and its predictors is stable over time -- an assumption that cannot usually be tested directly. This study analyzes the performance of poverty prediction models based on small area estimation techniques. Predicted poverty estimates are compared with directly observed levels in two country settings where data comparability over time is not a problem. Prediction models that employ either non-staple food or non-food expenditures or a full set of assets as predictors are found to yield poverty estimates that match observed poverty well. This offers some support to the use of such methods to approximate the evolution of poverty. Two further country examples illustrate how an application of the method employing models based on household assets can help to adjudicate between alternative price deflators.

Decomposing the Great Trade Collapse : Products, Prices, and Quantities in the 2008–2009 Crisis

Haddad, Mona; Harrison, Ann; Hausman, Catherine
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Relevância na Pesquisa
16.56%
The authors identifies a new set of stylized facts on the 2008-2009 trade collapse that they hope can be used to shed light on the importance of demand and supply-side factors in explaining the fall in trade. In particular, they decompose the fall in international trade into product entry and exit, price changes, and quantity changes for imports by Brazil, the European Union, Indonesia, and the United States. When the authors aggregate across all products, most of the countries analyzed experienced a decline in new products, a rise in product exit, and falls in quantity for product lines that continued to be traded. The evidence suggests that the intensive rather than extensive margin mattered the most, consistent with studies of other countries and previous recessionary periods. On average, quantities declined and prices fell. However, these average effects mask enormous differences across different products. Price declines were driven primarily by commodities. Within manufacturing, while most quantity changes were negative...

Do Crises Catalyze Creative Destruction? Firm-level Evidence from Indonesia

Hallward-Driemeier, Mary; Rijkers, Bob
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Relevância na Pesquisa
16.56%
Using Indonesian manufacturing census data (1991-2001), this paper rejects the hypothesis that the East Asian crisis unequivocally improved the reallocative process. The correlation between productivity and employment growth did not strengthen and the crisis induced the exit of relatively productive firms. The attenuation of the relationship between productivity and survival was stronger in provinces with comparatively lower reductions in minimum wages, but not due to reduced entry, changing loan conditions, or firms connected to the Suharto regime suffering disproportionately. On the bright side, firms that entered during the crisis were relatively more productive, which helped mitigate the reduction in aggregate productivity.

Assessing Ex Ante the Poverty and Distributional Impact of the Global Crisis in a Developing Country : A Micro-simulation Approach with Application to Bangladesh

Habib, Bilal; Narayan, Ambar; Olivieri, Sergio; Sanchez-Paramo, Carolina
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Relevância na Pesquisa
16.56%
Measuring the poverty and distributional impact of the global crisis for developing countries is not easy, given the multiple channels of impact and the limited availability of real-time data. Commonly-used approaches are of limited use in addressing questions like who are being affected by the crisis and by how much, and who are vulnerable to falling into poverty if the crisis deepens? This paper develops a simple micro-simulation method, modifying models from existing economic literature, to measure the poverty and distributional impact of macroeconomic shocks by linking macro projections with pre-crisis household data. The approach is then applied to Bangladesh to assess the potential impact of the slowdown on poverty and income distribution across different groups and regions. A validation exercise using past data from Bangladesh finds that the model generates projections that compare well with actual estimates from household data. The results can inform the design of crisis monitoring tools and policies in Bangladesh...

Price Levels and Economic Growth : Making Sense of the PPP Changes between ICP Rounds

Ravallion, Martin
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Relevância na Pesquisa
16.56%
To the surprise of many observers, the 2005 International Comparison Program (ICP) found substantially higher purchasing power parity (PPP) rates, relative to market exchange rates, in most developing countries. For example, China s price level index -- the ratio of its PPP to its exchange rate -- doubled between the 1993 and 2005 rounds of the ICP. The paper tries to explain the observed changes in PPPs. Consistently with the Balassa-Samuelson model, evidence is found of a "dynamic Penn effect," whereby more rapidly growing economies experience steeper increases in their price level index. This effect has been even stronger for initially poorer countries. Thus the widely-observed static (cross-sectional) Penn effect has been attenuated over time. On also taking account of exchange rate changes and prior participation in the ICP s price surveys, 99 percent of the variance in the observed changes in PPPs is explicable. Using a nested test, the World Bank s longstanding method of extrapolating PPPs between ICP rounds using inflation rates alone is out performed by the model proposed in this paper.

What Drives Firm Productivity Growth?

Anos-Casero, Paloma; Udomsaph, Charles
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Relevância na Pesquisa
16.56%
This paper presents new evidence on the causal links between changes in the business environment and firm productivity growth. It contributes to the literature in three important aspects. First, it constructs a unique database merging information from two large firm-level databases. The samples of both databases are merged on four criteria-country, sub-national location, firm size, and year-producing a panel of 22,004 firms in eight economies of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union: Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia,, Poland, Romania, Serbia, and Ukraine. Second, the paper addresses shortcomings of earlier studies, namely reverse causation, multicollinearity, and unreliable productivity estimates. Firm productivity growth is estimated drawing on corporate financial data from manufacturing firms included in the AMADEUS database. Changes in the business environment are estimated from the World Bank Enterprise Surveys conducted in 2002 and 2005. Multicollinearity problems in the full model regression are mitigated by constructing a set of six aggregate indicators of the business environment (using principal component analysis). The paper finds that...

The Better You Are the Stronger It Makes You : Evidence on the Asymmetric Impact of Liberalization

Iacovone, Leonardo
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Relevância na Pesquisa
16.56%
This paper studies how liberalization affects productivity growth using micro-level plant data. While previous studies have already shown the existence of a positive relationship between competition and economic performance, the novelty of this paper is that it analyzes not only the average impact of liberalization, but also goes "beyond the average" and shows how the liberalization can affect dissimilar plants in a different way. The author first develops a model which predicts that, while the impact of liberalization on productivity growth is positive "on average", more advanced firms tend to benefit more. In fact, liberalization generates two competing effects: on one side it spurs more innovative efforts because of the increased entry threat by foreign competitors, on the other side, enhanced competition curtails expected profits and reduces the funds available to finance innovative activities. The pro-competitive effect is weaker for less advanced firms as for them it is harder to catch-up with the "technology frontier". These predictions are then tested focusing on Mexican plants during the NAFTA liberalization. The results show that a 1 percent reduction in tariffs spurred productivity growth between 4 and 8 percent on average. However...

Creative Destruction and Policy Reforms : Changing Productivity Effects of Firm Turnoverin Moroccan Manufacturing

Hallward-Driemeier, Mary; Thompson, Fraser
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Relevância na Pesquisa
16.56%
How important is firm turnover to national productivity growth? The literature points to the contribution of creative destruction being strongest in more developed countries or where market institutions are strongest. This paper looks at the case of Morocco, spanning 16 years, during which reform initiatives aiming to strengthen market forces were introduced. The paper argues that it is important to take into account i) the timing of how decompositions are structured (capturing the effects of high growth among young firms as part of the benefit of increased entry) and ii) the additional indirect impacts of firm dynamics on agglomeration externalities and competition. The paper shows there are striking differences in the productivity paths of entering and exiting firms compared with incumbents, and that restricting the time horizon of productivity decompositions to the actual year of entry or exit underestimates the productivity effects of turnover. Although it has been hypothesized that conducting decompositions over longer horizons would increase the positive contribution of net turnover...

Macroeconomic Adjustment and the Poor : Analytical Issues and Cross-Country Evidence

Agénor, Pierre-Richard
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, D.C. Publicador: World Bank, Washington, D.C.
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
17.14%
The author studies the links between macroeconomic adjustment and poverty. First, he summarizes some of the recent evidence on poverty in the developing world. Second, he reviews the various channels through which macroeconomic policies affect the poor. Third, the author emphasizes the role of the labor market. He develops an analytical framework that captures some of the main features of the urban labor market in developing countries and studies the effects of fiscal adjustment on wages, employment, and poverty. Fourth, he presents cross-country regressions linking various macroeconomic and structural variables to poverty. The author finds that output growth and real exchange rate depreciations tend to lower poverty, while illiteracy, income inequality, and macroeconomic volatility tend to increase poverty. In addition, the impact of growth on poverty appears to be asymmetric, and to result from a significant relationship between episodes of increasing poverty and negative growth rates.

Assessing the effectos of measurement errors on the estimation of the production function

Ornaghi, Carmine
Fonte: Universidade Carlos III de Madrid Publicador: Universidade Carlos III de Madrid
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em /02/2002 ENG; ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
17.14%
This article explores the reasons why GMM estimators of production function parameters are generally found to produce unsatisfactory results. I attribute this finding to the inaccurate construction of the variables used in production function analysis. In particular, I suggest that the problem lies in the use of common price deflators as well as in a capital variable that does not reflect the true flow of capital services because of short-run equilibrium effects. I show that the practice of using industry-wide deflators leads to lower scale estimates, mainly due to a relevant downward bias in the labour coefficient. At the same time, it introduces a large upward bias in estimating the elasticity of output with respect to technological innovation. Moreover, a significant improvement in the estimates of capital coefficients is obtained if the information on the degree of capacity utilization is adequately exploited.

The Evolution of Poverty during the Crisis in Indonesia, 1996–99

Suryahadi, Asep; Sumarto, Sudarno; Suharso, Yusuf; Pritchett, Lant
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research; Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
27.14%
Poverty is intrinsically a complex social construct, and even when it is narrowly defined by a deficit of consumption spending, many thorny issues arise in setting an appropriate "poverty line". The authors limit themselves to examining how poverty - defined on a consistent, welfare-comparable basis - changed in Indonesia during a series of crises that began in august 1997. Using various data sets and studies, they develop a consistent series on poverty's evolution from February 1996 to August 1999. Specifically, they study the appropriate method for comparing changes in poverty between the February 1996 and February 1999 Susenas surveys. To set a poverty line for 1999 that is conceptually comparable to that for 1996 involves a standard issue of price deflation: How much would it cost in 1999 to purchase a bundle of goods that would produce the same level of material welfare as the money spent at the poverty line in 1996? Empirically, given major changes in the relative prices of food, the key issue is the weight given food prices in the price index. Using different deflators produces a range of plausible estimates, but they produce a range of plausible estimates, but they produce two "base cases": one working forward from 1996, and one working backward from 1999. If one accepts the official figure of 11.34 percent for February 1996...

Firm Productivity in Bangladesh Manufacturing Industries

Fernandes, Ana Margarida
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
27.14%
The author studies the determinants of total factor productivity (TFP) for manufacturing firms in Bangladesh using data from a recent survey. She obtains TFP measures by making use of firm-specific deflators for output and inputs. Controlling for industry, location, and year fixed effects, she finds that: (1) firm size and TFP are negatively correlated; (2) firm age and TFP exhibit an inverse-U shaped relationship; (3) TFP improves with the quality of the firm's human capital; (4) global integration improves TFP; (5) firms with research and development activities and quality certifications have higher TFP, while more advanced technologies improve TFP only in the presence of significant absorptive capacity; (6) power supply problems cost firms heavily in terms of TFP losses; and (7) the presence of crime dampens TFP.

Arbitrage and deflators in illiquid markets

Pennanen, Teemu
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Relevância na Pesquisa
27.14%
This paper presents a stochastic model for discrete-time trading in financial markets where trading costs are given by convex cost functions and portfolios are constrained by convex sets. The model does not assume the existence of a cash account/numeraire. In addition to classical frictionless markets and markets with transaction costs or bid-ask spreads, our framework covers markets with nonlinear illiquidity effects for large instantaneous trades. In the presence of nonlinearities, the classical notion of arbitrage turns out to have two equally meaningful generalizations, a marginal and a scalable one. We study their relations to state price deflators by analyzing two auxiliary market models describing the local and global behavior of the cost functions and constraints.

Local martingale deflators for asset processes stopped at a default time $S^\tau$ or right before $S^{\tau-}$

Song, Shiqi
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Relevância na Pesquisa
27.76%
Let $\mathbb{F}\subset \mathbb{G}$ be two filtrations and $S$ be a $\mathbb{F}$ semimartingale possessing a $\mathbb{F}$ local martingale deflator. Consider $\tau$ a $\mathbb{G}$ stopping time. We study the problem whether $S^{\tau-}$ or $S^{\tau}$ can have $\mathbb{G}$ local martingale deflators. A suitable theoretical framework is set up in this paper, within which necessary/sufficient conditions for the problem to be solved have been proved. Under these conditions, we will construct $\mathbb{G}$ local martingale deflators for $S^{\tau-}$ or for $S^{\tau}$. Among others, it is proved that $\mathbb{G}$ local martingale deflators are multiples of $\mathbb{F}$ local martingale deflators, with a multiplicator coming from the multiplicative decomposition of the Az\'ema supermartingale of $\tau$. The proofs of the necessary/sufficient conditions require various results to be established about Az\'ema supermartingale, about local martingale deflator, about filtration enlargement, which are interesting in themselves. Our study is based on a filtration enlargement setting. For applications, it is important to have a method to infer the existence of such setting from the knowledge of the market information. This question is discussed at the end of the paper.; Comment: There existed a big mistake in an early version of this paper. The mistake was due to a bad computation $\frac{L}{L}=1$ instead of the correct one $\frac{L}{L}=1\!1_{\{L>0\}}$...

Strict Local Martingale Deflators and Pricing American Call-Type Options

Bayraktar, Erhan; Kardaras, Constantinos; Xing, Hao
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Relevância na Pesquisa
27.14%
We solve the problem of pricing and optimal exercise of American call-type options in markets which do not necessarily admit an equivalent local martingale measure. This resolves an open question proposed by Fernholz and Karatzas [Stochastic Portfolio Theory: A Survey, Handbook of Numerical Analysis, 15:89-168, 2009].; Comment: Key Words: Strict local martingales, deflators, American call options