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Choques climáticos, crédito e poupança no Brasil, uma análise empírica; Climate shock, credit and savings in Brazil an empirical analysis

Basto, João Bevilaqua Teixeira
Fonte: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP Publicador: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP
Tipo: Dissertação de Mestrado Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 30/11/2012 PT
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Esse trabalho tem como objetivo verificar se o sistema bancário brasileiro protege indivíduos contra os choques transitivos de renda. Por meio de experimentos e avaliação empírica, em pequenas regiões, a literatura tenta explicar como arranjos informais podem contornar os problemas de crédito causados por falhas informacionais e de comprometimento limitado. No entanto, falha em avaliar choques que afetam uma região geográfica ampla já que esses são comportados apenas por bancos. Através de um modelo de dois estágios com variação de renda instrumentalizada por variáveis climáticas, analisamos se existe um efeito significante entre os choques e as contas de crédito das instituições formais. Verificamos que os agentes usam poupança como meio principal de suavizar seu risco intertemporal. As contas de crédito, entretanto possuem um efeito distinto em municípios com mais desenvolvimento financeiro do que aqueles com menos. Isso indica que possuímos uma restrição de crédito para parte da população, deixando-a exposta ao seu risco.; This work aims to verify whether the Brazilian banking system protects individuals against transitive income shocks. Through experiments and empirical evaluation in small regions, literature tries to explain how informal arrangements can overcome credit problems caused by informational failures and limited commitment. But they fail to evaluate shocks that affect a broad geographic region that can only be dealt with banks. Through a two-stage model with varying income instrumentalized by climatic variables...

Facing the credit crunch: Politics sends mixed messages for science in the wake of the global financial crisis

Hunter, Philip
Fonte: Nature Publishing Group Publicador: Nature Publishing Group
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em /12/2010 EN
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The global response to the credit crunch has varied from belt tightening to spending sprees. Philip Hunter investigates how various countries react to the financial crisis in terms of supporting scientific research.

LA CONTRAZIONE DEL CREDITO DURANTE LA CRISI FINANZIARIA: CREDIT CRUNCH O CREDIT SELECTION? UNA DISAMINA SULL’ANDAMENTO DEL CREDITO BANCARIO ITALIANO TRA FRAMEWORK NORMATIVO E CRISI FINANZIARIA.

LEO, SABRINA
Fonte: La Sapienza Universidade de Roma Publicador: La Sapienza Universidade de Roma
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado
IT
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Obiettivo del presente lavoro è quello di valutare la rilevanza delle determinanti di restrizione intervenute dal lato dell’offerta di credito al fine di verificare quali siano i maggiori fattori che ne hanno causato la restrizione. Nello specifico, la research question, una volta definita la tipologia di contrazione manifestatasi (credit crunch o credit selection), tenta di dare una risposta circa la rilevanza dei fattori di restrizione intervenuti dal lato dell’offerta di credito, nonché l’efficacia/efficienza delle scelte effettuate dagli intermediari bancari. Nel confronto con le altre realtà europee ed internazionali, l’industria finanziaria nazionale si è dimostrata maggiormente resistente rispetto ai contraccolpi provenienti dalla crisi finanziaria: il XV Rapporto della Fondazione Rosselli (2010) attribuisce tale “successo” alla combinazione di due fattori fortemente presenti nel sistema bancario domestico, vale a dire la flessibilità delle tecnologie di credito e la diversità delle imprese bancarie. Ciò non toglie, però, il verificarsi di fenomeni di contrazione creditizia, seppur fisiologica, in seguito a periodi di espansione della politica creditizia e/o conseguentemente a periodi di forte tensione economica e finanziaria: la flessione del credito...

Kenya - Poverty and Inequality Assessment : Executive Summary and Synthesis Report

World Bank
Fonte: World Bank Publicador: World Bank
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This assessment of poverty and inequality comes at an important juncture for Kenya. The December 2007 elections and subsequent pronouncements of the newly formed Grand Coalition have underlined the salience of these issues to ordinary Kenyans, and for policy makers. The violence in early 2008 highlighted the importance of addressing poverty and inequality as major goals in their own right, but also for instrumental reasons, as major goals in their own right, the persistent inequalities spark conflict, which is welfare reducing, and this conflict in turn will harm prospects for growth. The onset of the global credit crunch has also shown how poverty and public service delivery related vulnerabilities could be exacerbated by external shocks. Cumulatively, these factors underline the value of appropriate diagnostics about the patterns of poverty and inequality in informing public debates, strategies and actions to overcome exclusion from the benefits of growth and development in Kenya as well as designing policies to minimize the impact of the current global crisis.

Cyclical Effects of Bank Capital Requirements with Imperfect Credit Markets

Agénor, Pierre-Richard; Pereira da Silva, Luiz A.
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
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This paper analyzes the cyclical effects of bank capital requirements in a simple model with credit market imperfections. Lending rates are set as a premium over the cost of borrowing from the central bank, with the premium itself depending on firms effective collateral. Basel I- and Basel II-type regulatory regimes are defined and a capital channel is introduced through a signaling effect of capital buffers on the cost of bank deposits. The macroeconomic effects of various shocks (a drop in output, an increase in the refinance rate, and a rise in the capital adequacy ratio) are analyzed, under both binding and nonbinding capital requirements. Factors affecting the procyclicality of each regime (defined in terms of the behavior of the risk premium) are also identified and policy implications are discussed.

Credit Chains and Sectoral Comovement : Does the Use of Trade Credit Amplify Sectoral Shocks?

Raddatz, Claudio
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
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This paper provides evidence of the presence and relevance of a credit-chain amplification mechanism by looking at its implications for the correlation of industries. In particular, it tests the hypothesis that an increase in the use of trade-credit along the input-output chain linking two industries results in an increase in their correlation. The analysis uses detailed data on the correlations and input-output relations of 378 manufacturing industry-pairs across 44 countries with different degrees of use of trade credit. The results provide strong support for this hypothesis and indicate that the mechanism is quantitatively relevant.

Trade Credit and Bank Credit : Evidence from Recent Financial Crises

Love, Inessa; Preve, Lorenzo A.; Sarria-Allende, Virginia
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
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The authors study the effect of financial crises on trade credit in a sample of 890 firms in six emerging economies. They find that although provision of trade credit increases right after the crisis, it consequently collapses in the following months and years. The authors observe that firms with weaker financial position (for example, high pre-crisis level of short-term debt and low cash stocks and cash flows) are more likely to reduce trade credit provided to their customers. This suggests that the decline in aggregate credit provision is driven by the reduction in the supply of trade credit, which follows the bank credit crunch. The results are consistent with the "redistribution view" of trade credit provision, in which bank credit is redistributed by way of trade credit by the firms with stronger financial position to the firms with weaker financial stand

Bank Deleveraging : Causes, Channels, and Consequences for Emerging Market and Developing Countries

Feyen, Erik; Kibuuka, Katie; Ötker-Robe, İnci
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
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Just before the 2008-09 global financial crisis, policymakers were concerned about the rapid growth of bank credit, particularly in Europe; now worry centers on a potential global credit crunch led by European banking institutions. Overall, credit conditions across Europe deteriorated markedly in late 2011. Spillover effects are being felt around the globe and imply significant channels through which deleveraging could have disruptive consequences for credit conditions in emerging markets, particularly in emerging Europe. Significant liquidity support provided by the European Central Bank was a "game changer," at least in the short term, as it helped revive markets and limited the risk of disorderly deleveraging. However, the extent, speed, and impact of European bank deleveraging remain highly dependent on the evolution of economic growth and market conditions, which in turn are guided by the ultimate impact of European Central Bank liquidity support, resolution of the sovereign debt crisis within the Euro Area, and the ability of the European rescue fund to provide an effective firewall against contagion.

European Bank Deleveraging and Global Credit Conditions : Implications of a Multi-Year Process on Long-Term Finance and Beyond

Feyen, Erik; González del Mazo, Inés
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
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This paper assesses European bank deleveraging and its impact on global credit conditions. Before the onset of the global financial crisis, European banks had rapidly expanded their foreign lending activities. However, European banks have since been tightening credit conditions in Europe more for longer-term lending, a trend that banks expect to continue. European financial stress has been transmitted to emerging markets that have experienced a sustained deterioration of credit standards and funding conditions. As a result, European lending in emerging markets has been lagging behind lending of other international banks although European banks remain a dominant source of funding. "Good" bank deleveraging is still necessary from a prudential perspective. Although acute "bad" deleveraging pressures due to financial stress, which can trigger a credit crunch, have subsided recently on account of decisive policy measures, tail risks remain. Curtailing lending will probably be a core component of this multi-year deleveraging process. Taken together...

The Impact of Funding Models and Foreign Bank Ownership on Bank Credit Growth : Is Central and Eastern Europe Different?

Feyen, Erik; Letelier, Raquel; Love, Inessa; Maimbo, Samuel Munzele; Rocha, Roberto
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
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This paper provides new evidence on the factors affecting protracted credit contraction in the wake of the global financial crisis. The paper applies panel vector autoregressions to a global panel that consists of quarterly data for 41 countries for the period 2000-2011 and documents that domestic private credit growth is highly sensitive to cross-border funding shocks around the world. This relationship is significantly stronger in Central and Eastern Europe, a region with considerably stronger foreign presence, higher cross-border funding, and elevated loan-to-deposit ratios compared with the rest of the world. The paper shows that high foreign ownership per se does not appear to explain credit response differences to foreign funding shocks. Rather, there is a stronger response in countries that exhibit high loan-to-deposit ratios and a high reliance on foreign funding relative to local deposits. The results suggest that funding model differences were at the heart of the post-crisis credit contraction in several Central and Eastern European countries. These findings have important regulatory and supervisory implications for emerging countries in Central and Eastern Europe as well as for other countries.

The Credit Crunch in East Asia : What Can Bank Excess Liquid Assets Tell Us?

Agenor, Pierre-Richard; Aizenman, Joshua; Hoffmaister, Alexander
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
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The authors propose a two-step approach for assessing the extent to which the fall in credit in crisis-stricken East Asian countries was a supply- or demand-induced phenomenon. The first step involves estimating a demand function for excess liquid assets held by commercial banks. The second step involves establishing dynamic projections for the periods after the crisis and assessing whether or not residuals are large enough to be viewed as indicators of an "involuntary" accumulation of excess reserves. The results for Thailand suggest that the contraction in bank lending that accompanied the crisis was the result of supply factors. Thai firms (presumably small and medium-size ones) faced binding constraints in getting access to credit markets after the crisis.

Anatomy of a Credit Crunch : From Capital to Labor Markets

Buera, Francisco J.; Fattal Jaef, Roberto N.; Shin, Yongseok
Fonte: Elsevier Publicador: Elsevier
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
EN_US
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Why are financial crises associated with a sustained rise in unemployment? We develop a tractable model with frictions in both credit and labor markets to study the aggregate and micro-level implications of a credit crunch—i.e., a sudden tightening of collateral constraints. When we simulate a credit crunch calibrated to match the observed decline in the ratio of debt to non-financial assets of the United States business sector following the 2007–2008 crisis, our model generates a sharp decline in output—explained by a drop in aggregate total factor productivity and investment—and a protracted increase in unemployment. We then explore the micro-level impact by tracking the employment dynamics for firms of different sizes and ages. The credit crunch causes a much larger reduction in the net employment growth rate of small, young establishments relative to that of large, old producers, consistent with the recent empirical findings in the literature.

Credit channel and risk-based capital adequacy requirements

Suzuki, Tomoya
Fonte: Universidade Nacional da Austrália Publicador: Universidade Nacional da Austrália
Tipo: Working/Technical Paper Formato: 272396 bytes; 350 bytes; application/pdf; application/octet-stream
EN_AU
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Introduction: Importance of bank lending in the propagation of exogenous shocks has been recognised in the literature. Such views are collectively called the credit view. The credit view is that a negative shock, e.g. a monetary tightening, restricts the availability of credit to borrowers, thereby affecting the real economy. The credit view consists of two different views, namely the “bank-lending view” and the “balance sheet view”. According to the “bank-lending view” banks cut back on lending in the wake of tight money because they have less money to lend, even though there are good loans to be made. On the other hand, the balance sheet view implies that banks cut back on lending in the wake of tight money because borrowers are in bad shape. Thus the two views have different implications. Nevertheless, both the views imply that a monetary tightening shifts the supply schedule of bank loans left, thereby affecting the real economy. This transmission mechanism of monetary policy is called the credit channel. The quantitative importance of the credit channel may be dependent on institutional characteristics of the financial market. If banks can substitute from deposits to less reserve-intensive forms of finance...

Funding vs. Real Economy Shock : The Impact of the 2007-2009 Crisis on Small Firms' Credit Availability

Berg, Gunhild; Kirschenmann, Karolin
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH
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This paper analyzes the impact of two distinct shocks stemming from the cross-border transmission of the 2007-2009 crisis on credit availability for small firms. The paper uses data from AccessBank Azerbaijan which was affected in its liquidity position during the second and third quarters of 2008 by delays in its refinancing. The Azeri real economy was hit by the global crisis from the fourth quarter of 2008 onwards with a combined decline in oil prices, exports, remittances, and domestic demand. Therefore, a pure supply side shock con be contrasted with a real economy shock that hit exactly when the bank's funding position strengthened again. The paper finds that during the funding shock (potential) borrowers are discouraged from applying for loans. However, for those applications made, the likelihood of loan approval is not affected. The real economy shock, in contrast, reduces the approval likelihood for SME loans in particular, while agro and micro loans are considerably less affected. Finally, bank relationships increase credit availability in good as well as in bad times.

European Bank Deleveraging : Implications for Emerging Market Countries

Feyen, Erik; Kibuuka, Katie; Ötker-Robe, Inci
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Brief; Publications & Research
ENGLISH
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Just before the 2008-9 global financial crises, policy makers were concerned about the rapid growth of bank credit, particularly in Europe; now, worry centers on a potential global credit crunch led by European banking institutions. While recognizing that concrete evidence is limited by significant data gaps and lags, this note discusses the dynamics of European bank deleveraging and possible implications for emerging market economies (EMEs). Overall, the information available as of early 2012 shows a marked deterioration of credit conditions across Europe. Data also suggest that spillover effects are already being felt around the globe and imply significant channels through which deleveraging could have disruptive short and long-term consequences for credit conditions in EMEs, particularly in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). However, the significant liquidity support provided by the European Central Bank (ECB) since December may be a 'game changer,' at least in the short term, because it has helped revive markets and limited the risk of disorderly deleveraging. The extent...

Demand Collapse or Credit Crunch to Firms? Evidence from the World Bank's Financial Crisis Survey in Eastern Europe

Nguyen, Ha; Qian, Rong
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
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While there is a consensus that the 2008-2009 crisis was triggered by financial market disruptions in the United States, there is little agreement on whether the transmission of the crisis and the subsequent prolonged recession are due to credit factors or to a collapse of demand for goods and services. This paper assesses whether the primary effect of the global crisis on Eastern European firms took the form of an adverse demand shock or a credit crunch. Using a unique firm survey conducted by the World Bank in six Eastern European countries during the 2008-2009 financial crisis, the paper shows that the drop in demand for firms' products and services was overwhelmingly reported as the most damaging adverse effect of the crisis. Other "usual suspects," such as rising debt or reduced access to credit, are reported as minor. The paper also finds that the changes in firms' sales and installed capacity are significantly and robustly correlated with the demand sensitivity of the sector in which the firms operate. However...

Romania in a post-credit crunch world? A cautionary tale from Australia and America

Costea, Carmen; Keen, Steve
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em 15/04/2008
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We present data on debt accumulation in Australia and the United States, and tentative data on Romania, to pose the question of whether Romania might experience a credit crunch as a result of the US subprime financial crisis. We develop a model of a credit crunch in a pure credit economy with endogenous money creation, to show how changes in bank lending practices and borrower repayment behaviour can bring about an economic decline.; Comment: 21 pages, 12 figures

Interest Rates After The Credit Crunch: Multiple-Curve Vanilla Derivatives and SABR

Bianchetti, Marco; Carlicchi, Mattia
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
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We present a quantitative study of the markets and models evolution across the credit crunch crisis. In particular, we focus on the fixed income market and we analyze the most relevant empirical evidences regarding the divergences between Libor and OIS rates, the explosion of Basis Swaps spreads, and the diffusion of collateral agreements and CSA-discounting, in terms of credit and liquidity effects. We also review the new modern pricing approach prevailing among practitioners, based on multiple yield curves reflecting the different credit and liquidity risk of Libor rates with different tenors and the overnight discounting of cash flows originated by derivative transactions under collateral with daily margination. We report the classical and modern no-arbitrage pricing formulas for plain vanilla interest rate derivatives, and the multiple-curve generalization of the market standard SABR model with stochastic volatility. We then report the results of an empirical analysis on recent market data comparing pre- and post-credit crunch pricing methodologies and showing the transition of the market practice from the classical to the modern framework. In particular, we prove that the market of Interest Rate Swaps has abandoned since March 2010 the classical Single-Curve pricing approach...

Principles for Public Credit Guarantee Schemes for SMEs

World Bank Group
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Working Paper; Publications & Research :: Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
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Access to finance, particularly credit, is widely recognized as problematic for small and medium enterprises (SMEs), hampering their growth and development. To address this challenge, many governments around the world intervene in SME credit markets through credit guarantee schemes (CGSs). A CGS offers risk mitigation to lenders by taking a share of the lenders’ losses on SME loans in case of default. CGSs can contribute to expand access to finance for SMEs. Yet they may bring limited value added and prove costly if they are not designed and implemented well. There have been efforts in recent years to identify good practices for CGSs, but the international community still lacks a common set of principles or standards that can help governments establish, operate, and evaluate CGSs for SMEs. The Principles for Public Credit Guarantees for SMEs are filling this gap. The Principles provide a generally accepted set of good practices, which can serve as a global reference for the design, execution, and evaluation of public CGSs around the world. The Principles propose appropriate governance and risk management arrangements...

Does monetary policy lose effectiveness during a credit crunch?

Bijapur, Mohan
Fonte: Elsevier Publicador: Elsevier
Tipo: Article; PeerReviewed Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em /01/2010 EN; EN
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This article investigates the effectiveness of monetary policy during a credit crunch by estimating a vector autoregression on the US economy. We present evidence that interest rate cuts have a diminished impact on growth, due to impairment in the relationship between monetary policy and the supply of intermediated credit.