Approved for public release, distribution unlimited; This thesis develops new models to estimate the cost for a defense acquisition project, namely the Korean Helicopter Program (KHP). The thesis constructs various cost estimating models based on the traditional Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method and the Adaptive Cost Estimating Relationships (CER), which was introduced in June 2008. This new methodology is used to improve the uncertainty of OLS as shown in the differences between actual data and predicted values. In particular, the new (Adaptive) CER method uses three ways of estimation to diminish the errors; a priori, piece-wise, and X-distance methods. Among these three approaches, this thesis deals with the priori method, which assigns weights to individual data points. By comparing the OLS and the weighted methods, improvements in the cost estimates can be achieved. In addition, this thesis provided robust cost estimates for the KHP.
Approved for public release, distribution unlimited; S) Cost Estimating Guide dated October 2007 as a reference for developing cost-estimating relationships. This thesis focuses on the following three MARFORs: (1) Marine Forces Pacific, (2) Marine Forces Command, and (3) Marine Forces Reserve. This thesis creates a performance-pricing model for the USMC planners to use as an analytical tool to support sustainment budgetary requirements in the Planning, Programming, Budgeting, and Execution (PPBE) process. This thesis continues the work of LCDR Patrick Kelly.
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited; With few effective decision-making tools to assess the affordability of major weapon systems, management of total ownership costs is continually misunderstood. Cost analysis provides a quick and reliable assessment of affordability. Because there is no standardized method for calculating reliable estimates of operating and support (O&S) costs (the principal component of total ownership cost), this thesis formulates a parametric cost model which can be used to determine the annual O&S costs of U.S. Navy (non-nuclear) surface ships based on known (or assumed) physical characteristics and manpower expectations. Source data for the cost model is obtained from the Navy Visibility and Management of O&S Costs (VAMOSC) database, a historical cost database maintained by the Naval Center for Cost Analysis (NCCA). Through standard regression and data analysis techniques, cost estimating relationships are developed for three major cost drivers: ship light displacement, ship overall length, and ship manpower. The formulated parametric cost model is a top-level and fairly reliable representation of average annual O&S cost, and it can be used by the DOD cost community to perform component cost analyses or independent cost estimates.
This study provides parametric O&S cost models for future US Navy aircraft acquisition programs based on physical and performance parameters. The proposed parametric cost models provide decision makers with a tool for developing rough-order-of-magnitude annual O&S cost estimates for future US Navy aircraft acquisition programs. The historic aircraft cost data was provided by the Naval Center for Cost Analysis (NCCA) in a spreadsheet format and the data were extracted from the Navy Visibility and Maintenance of Operating and Support Cost (VAMOSC) data warehouse. After validating the assumption that the average annual O&S cost for any aircraft type/model/series is constant from year to year, cost estimating relationships are developed. The first model developed is based on multivariate regression. In this case, forward stepwise regression was used to find the model with the best fit. Since the multivariate regression model turns out to be impractical, having more than 30 variables in the equation, a tree-based model is presented as an alternative. Additionally, single variable cost estimating relationships are formulated based on the physical and performance parameters length, weight, and thrust.
Joint Applied Project; The purpose of this Joint Applied Project was to investigate and provide a comprehensive overview of the current process of cost estimation, preparation of Independent Government Cost Estimates, and Technical Evaluation writing practices within the Army Materiel Command, U.S. Army, JMandL Acquisition Center, ARDEC and CECOM. The goal of this project was to identify and document not only the specific types of cost-estimation practices and reports, but also to show the relationships between the IGCE, the Cost Estimation Process, the Request for Proposal (RFP), and the Technical Evaluation. Our purpose was to highlight and prove that the cost-estimation process is the heart of the acquisition process, and that it merges and coordinates the other processes so that the government can obtain the "Best Value" on both its competitive source selections and noncompetitive acquisitions. The reader will come away with a new appreciation for the concept of "Cost as an Independent Variable" after reading this thesis. Treating cost as an independent variable helps to ensure that acquisitions do not go over budget or get wildly out of control. It also contributes to clear thinking and lessens the likelihood of groupthink or "going along with the crowd...
When attempting to predict the acquisition costs of U.S. Navy surface ships, current models cannot produce a repeatable answer when the details of the acquisition program are not well defined. This thesis formulates a parametric model that predicts the average procurement cost of a conventional U.S. Navy surface ship based upon known (or assumed) physical and performance characteristics. The source data for the cost model is obtained from U.S. Weapons Systems Costs, a tabulation of annual procurement costs for major system programs, published by Data Search Associates. Standard regression techniques return cost estimating relationships able to predict average procurement cost from ship light displacement, ship overall length, ship propulsion shaft horsepower or number of propulsion engines. The formulated parametric cost model is approximate and appropriate only for rough order of magnitude studies, but can be used by the DoD cost community to produce justifiable estimates when other models do not have sufficient information to generate an answer.
Fonte: Monterey, California : Naval Postgraduate SchoolPublicador: Monterey, California : Naval Postgraduate School
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado
Relevância na Pesquisa
This is an analysis of existing feedback in the Fleet Modernization Program (FMP) planning and design process using the FFG-7 class of ships as a case study. This analysis attempts to relate the engineering drawing revision rate (inverse measure of drawing quality) and the number of ships affected by those drawing revisions (measure of availability concurrence) to the cost growth attributable to the FMP portion of U.S. Navy ship availabilities. Due to the lack of actual cost data, budget estimates were used as a surrogate and unfortunately firm relationships could not be established. However, the methodology developed has potential for application to any large ship class which may experience numerous concurrent availabilities, as actual cost data become available. It is meant to be a tool for the engineering design agent to assess the financial impact of the quality of engineering design products on the installing activities and to assess the potential value of policy changes which improve the quality of those products. Keywords: Data bases, Theses, Regression statistics. (KR)
This study investigates the relationship of the component weights of US Navy Surface Escort Ships and their corresponding costs of construction. The procedures of various US Navy agencies who conduct Surface Ship Costing are described, with emphasis upon the method followed by COMNAVSEASYSCOM, Washington D.C.. A statistical analysis is provided which focuses upon multiple linear regression techniques applied to the weight/cost relationship. Additionally, the research includes the investigation of non-weight explanatory variable contribution to the various regression models. The analysis concludes that linear relationships do exist between the variables. The statistical evidence provided suggests that linear regression provides equivalent results to non-linear logarithmic transformation of the dependent cost variable. Further, the analysis indicates that the inclusion of non-weight dummy variables, such as contract type for vessel construction, enhance models with strictly weight explanatory variables. The models developed herein lack the precision demanded of budgetary cost estimating. However, the equations will generate point estimates that may add credence to existing methods, especially within concept formulation or tradeoff studies. Keywords: Cost estimation...
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.; This study tests relationships between measures of the state-of-the- art of technology and advances in technology with production cost. The analysis is conducted using a sample of military aircraft. Parametric cost estimating models are developed. Actual production costs are compared with estimated production costs predicted from the models to create measure of cost overruns and cost underruns. A set of factors that are associated with instances of cost over/underruns are identified. These factors reflect aspects of the aircraft program, the political and economic environment at the time of commencement of production on the aircraft program, and the financial condition of the prime contractor. Keywords: Regression analysis, Cost models, Cost variances, Aircraft procurement. (KR)
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.; As the result of the deliberations of the 1993 Base Realignment and Closure Commission, the Department of Defense will close or realign over 100 military installations at a cost of over $5.5 billion. The Cost of Base Realignment Actions (COBRA) model is the primary financial analysis tool used by the Base Realignment and Closure Commission and the military departments to evaluate the costs and benefits of proposed base closures and realignments. This thesis examines three critical aspects of the model: the estimation of military construction costs, the prediction of overhead savings, and the choice of discount rate. COBRA cost estimates are compared to actual military construction costs for three Navy bases selected for closure/realignment in 1988: Naval Station, Brooklyn; Naval Station, Sand Point; and Naval Station, Hunters Point. Cost estimating relationships for overhead costs are developed for five categories of Navy/Marine Corps installations and compared to the COBRA models for overhead costs. The discount rate used for COBRA net present value analyses is evaluated with respect to directives in Office of Management and Budget Circular A-94. The final chapter draws conclusions on the accuracy of the COBRA model...
CIVINS; In light of recent military budget cuts, there has been a recent focus on determining methods to
reduce the cost of Navy ships. A RAND National Defense Research Institute study showed many
sources of cost escalation for Navy ships. Among them included characteristic complexity of
modern Naval ships, which contributed to half of customer driven factors. This paper focuses on
improving the current parametric cost estimating method used as referenced in NAVSEA’s Cost
Estimating Handbook. Currently, weight is used as the most common variable for determining
cost in the parametric method because it’s a consistent physical property and most readily
available. Optimizing ship design based on weight may increase density and complexity because
ship size is minimized. This paper will introduce electric power density and outfit density as
additional variables to the parametric cost estimating equation and will show how this can
improve the early stage cost estimating relationships of Navy ships.
Approved for public release, distribution unlimited; Composite materials offer great promise to all future air vehicles by allowing engineers to design and build aircraft that weigh less, have better performance, and lower lifecycle cost. However, even though these materials have been used by the industry for over a decade, there still does not exist an accurate means to estimate their cost. The primary objective of this study is to develop cost estimating relationships for composite helicopter airframes. It also provides information about composite materials, cost estimation in the DoD acquisition process, and current composite material cost estimating models. An accurate cost estimate is a crucial element of any successful weapons acquisition program. The results of this study are the development of a predictive model that relates cost in direct labor hours to various performance parameters of a helicopter constructed of composite materials. This thesis should provide information to cost estimators and program managers that will assist them in formulating accurate cost estimates for composite helicopter airframes.; Lieutenant, United States Navy
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited; This thesis investigates the need to predict life cycle cost in the most effective and efficient manner through the development of cost estimating relationships (CERs) using only performance input parameters. Utilizing statistical software especially designed for program managers, parametric cost estimating relationship module (PACER), CERs were developed and then evaluated for statistical soundness. The object of this study was to develop a means by which the program manager could estimate fairly accurately total life cycle costs. With this information in hand, the program manager could determine of a weapons system is affordable early in the acquisition process. The result of this study was the derivation of three predictive models that relate cost to required performance parameters. Based solely upon performance requirements, a relationship between cost and performance was established and their impact upon life cycle costs.; http://archive.org/details/parametriccostes00pete; Captain, United States Marine Corps
Approved for public release, distribution is unlimited; This thesis attempts to formulate a parametric cost model to estimate the annual operating and support (O&S) cost of future U.S. Navy (nuclear) submarines, based on presumed physical characteristics and manpower expectations. Source data for the analysis is obtained from the Navy's VAMOSC database. Using regression analysis techniques, cost estimating relationships are developed for three assumed cost drivers - manpower, length, and submerged displacement. However, the analysis reveals that there is no significant relationship between annual O&S cost and the three assumed cost drivers. Therefore, an alternative method of estimating annual O&S cost is presented using probabilistic assessment of cost based on the empirical annual O&S cost distribution. The probabilistic assessment method allows decision-makers and cost analysts to estimate the annual O&S cost for which there is a desired probability that the true annual O&S cost of a new submarine will not be exceeded. For example, historically, 80 percent of all SSNs have experienced annual O&S costs of less than $27 M (CY99$), while the remaining 20 percent have experienced annual O&S costs greater than $27 M (CY99$). So, loosely speaking...
Approved for public release; distribution unlimited; This thesis discusses the economic effects of noise
abatement regulations on the helicopter industry. Increased
manufacturing and operating costs from noise abatement regulations
on Sikorsky's S-75 helicopter are estimated. The
effects on consumer utilization are also discussed. An
appendix compares two independent research studies that used
weight estimating relationships and cost estimating relationships
to estimate manufacturing costs of the helicopter
by subsystem. This thesis proposes that if noise abatement, regulations
are imposed on the helicopter industry without lue consideration
for future technological improements, helicopter
manufacturers, operators of helicopter businesses, and
consumers of helicopter services would be adversely
affected.; http://archive.org/details/economiceffectso00conn; Lieutenant, United States Navy
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited; The purpose of this thesis is to develop estimating relationships for missile Engineering and Manufacturing Development (EMD) costs and warship fuel consumption to aid the Naval Center for Cost Analysis (NCA) in performing independent cost estimates for new weapons programs. Standard factors, which represent the percent that each cost element is typically allocated from the program's total funding, are currently used to predict whether missile EMD costs are roughly right. For fuel consumption, estimating relationships have only been developed for existing individual ship types. None have been developed which use pooled ship types to estimate fuel consumption of new ship types. Regression analysis was used to develop estimating relationships based on physical and technical characteristics. The cost estimating relationships (CERs) developed to predict missile EMD costs explained only about 34 percent of the variance. Due to the low explanatory power, no significant physical or technical factors could be determined. Even though the results are not statistically significant, the associated coefficients of variation are lower than the standard factor coefficients of variation. An estimating relationship with high explanatory power was developed to predict fuel consumption for new warships. Three significant physical and performance factors were determined: steaming hours...
Fonte: Escola de Pós-Graduação NavalPublicador: Escola de Pós-Graduação Naval
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado
Relevância na Pesquisa
Statistical cost estimating relationships (CER) are used by cost
analysts for estimating future systems costs before the costs are incurred,
A sample of published studies concerning CER's is reviewed and
analyzed and a general prognosis of the techniques involved is presented,
Some currently used alternatives to CER's are discussed and methods of
improving cost estimating relationships are examined. Major conclusions
are that the technique of estimating costs through statistical relationships
is sound but that improvements can be realized in certain areas.; http://archive.org/details/reviewanalysisof00cart
Approved for public release, distribution is unlimited.; The composition of an artillery system and its mission in a non-nuclear environment is discussed. Four scenarios are defined in which the artillery system must perform its mission, and the tasks are detailed. A concept for a measure of effectiveness (MOE) for artillery is developed and a methodology is presented. The effects of the scenarios on the MOE are analyzed and the constraints are discussed. A mobility concept is developed and a definition is presented. Costing concepts and techniques are presented with notation developed for computer application to the artillery system costing problem. Some cost estimating relationships (CER's) are suggested. A cost-effectiveness analysis is made employing the developed MOE and costing procedure. Some decision criteria are stated and discussed.; http://www.archive.org/details/costeffectivenes00alli; Captain, United States Marine Corps
We perform engineering cost analyses of systems capable of delivering 1–5 million metric tonnes (Mt) of albedo modification material to altitudes of 18–30 km. The goal is to compare a range of delivery systems evaluated on a consistent cost basis. Cost estimates are developed with statistical cost estimating relationships based on historical costs of aerospace development programs and operations concepts using labor rates appropriate to the operations. We evaluate existing aircraft cost of acquisition and operations, perform in-depth new aircraft and airship design studies and cost analyses, and survey rockets, guns, and suspended gas and slurry pipes, comparing their costs to those of aircraft and airships. Annual costs for delivery systems based on new aircraft designs are estimated to be $1–3B to deliver 1 Mt to 20–30 km or $2–8B to deliver 5 Mt to the same altitude range. Costs for hybrid airships may be competitive, but their large surface area complicates operations in high altitude wind shear, and development costs are more uncertain than those for airplanes. Pipes suspended by floating platforms provide low recurring costs to pump a liquid or gas to altitudes as high as ~ 20 km, but the research, development, testing and evaluation costs of these systems are high and carry a large uncertainty; the pipe system's high operating pressures and tensile strength requirements bring the feasibility of this system into question. The costs for rockets and guns are significantly higher than those for other systems. We conclude that (a) the basic technological capability to deliver material to the stratosphere at million tonne per year rates exists today...