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Constructing Coincident and Leading Indices of Economic Activity for the Brazilian Economy

Issler, João Victor; Notini, Hilton Hostalacio; Rodrigues, Claudia Fontoura
Fonte: Fundação Getúlio Vargas Publicador: Fundação Getúlio Vargas
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.38%
This paper has three original contributions. The first is the reconstruction effort of the series of employment and income to allow the creation of a new coincident index for the Brazilian economic activity. The second is the con- struction of a coincident index of the economic activity for Brazil, and from it, (re) establish a chronology of recessions in the recent past of the Brazilian economy. The coincident index follows the methodology proposed by TCB and it covers the period 1980:1 to 2007:11. The third is the construction and evaluation of many leading indicators of economic activity for Brazil which fills an important gap in the Brazilian Business Cycles literature.

Constructing coincident and leading indices of economic activity for the brazilian economy

Issler, João Victor; Notini, Hilton Hostalacio; Rodrigues, Claudia Fontoura
Fonte: Escola de Pós-Graduação em Economia da FGV Publicador: Escola de Pós-Graduação em Economia da FGV
Tipo: Relatório
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.38%
This paper has three original contributions. The first is the reconstruction effort of the series of employment and income to allow the creation of a new coincident index for the Brazilian economic activity. The second is the construction of a coincident index of the economic activity for Brazil, and from it, (re) establish a chronology of recessions in the recent past of the Brazilian economy. The coincident index follows the methodology proposed by The Conference Board (TCB) and it covers the period 1980:1 to 2007:11. The third is the construction and evaluation of many leading indicators of economic activity for Brazil which fills an important gap in the Brazilian Business Cycles literature.

Constructing Coincident and Leading Indices of Economic Activity for the Brazilian Economy

Issler, João Victor; Notini, Hilton Hostalacio; Rodrigues, Claudia Fontoura
Fonte: Escola de Pós-Graduação em Economia da FGV Publicador: Escola de Pós-Graduação em Economia da FGV
Tipo: Relatório
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.38%
This paper has three original contributions. The fi rst is the reconstruction effort of the series of employment and income to allow the creation of a new coincident index for the Brazilian economic activity. The second is the construction of a coincident index of the economic activity for Brazil, and from it, (re) establish a chronology of recessions in the recent past of the Brazilian economy. The coincident index follows the methodology proposed by The Conference Board (TCB) and it covers the period 1980:1 to 2007:11. The third is the construction and evaluation of many leading indicators of economic activity for Brazil which fills an important gap in the Brazilian Business-Cycle literature.

New Coincident and Leading Indicators for the Lebanese Economy

Matta, Samer
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
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36.28%
Weak economic statistics in Lebanon impede economic analysis and decision making. This paper presents a new coincident indicator and a leading indicator for the Lebanese economy. A new methodology, based on the National Bureau of Economic Research-Conference Board approach, was used to construct these indicators. The indicators can be used as monthly proxies for the evolution of real gross domestic product with a relatively small time lag (four to five months). Notwithstanding the relatively small sample period, the results reveal promising statistical properties that should make these new indications valuable coincident and leading (one-year ahead) indicators for analyzing the dynamics of the Lebanese economy. However, given limitations on the length of the gross domestic product time series in Lebanon, the accuracy of these indicators in tracking the business cycle of the Lebanese economy is expected to improve over time as more data points become available.

January & February 2014 Release

Arshanapalli, Bala; Pollak, Micah
Fonte: School of Business and Economics or Indiana University Northwest Publicador: School of Business and Economics or Indiana University Northwest
Tipo: Relatório
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.34%
The Northwest Indiana Coincident Index was developed by the School of Business and Economics at Indiana University Northwest. The monthly release provides a snapshot of the health of the economy for the region and a forecast for the next six months.; In February, the Northwest Indiana Coincident Index fell 0.5 points from 136.7 to 136.2. This decline follows a 0.6 point decrease in January. The two month fall in the index is primarily due to the unusually severe weather conditions during these months. Despite these declines, the forecast for the index over the next six months remains somewhat optimistic with weak growth of about 1-2%.

March & April 2014 Release

Arshanapalli, Bala; Pollak, Micah
Fonte: School of Business and Economics or Indiana University Northwest Publicador: School of Business and Economics or Indiana University Northwest
Tipo: Relatório
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.34%
The Northwest Indiana Coincident Index was developed by the School of Business and Economics at Indiana University Northwest. The monthly release provides a snapshot of the health of the economy for the region and a forecast for the next six months.; In April the Northwest Indiana Coincident Index rose 0.7 points from 136.8 to 137.5. This growth follows a similar 0.6 point increase during March. The improvement in the index over the last two months is primarily due to the regional economy recovering following the unusually severe weather conditions during January and February that slowed growth. The forecast for the index and the regional economy over the next six months remains optimistic with growth of about 1-2%.

June 2014 Release

Arshanapalli, Bala; Pollak, Micah
Fonte: School of Business and Economics or Indiana University Northwest Publicador: School of Business and Economics or Indiana University Northwest
Tipo: Relatório
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.28%
The Northwest Indiana Coincident Index was developed by the School of Business and Economics at Indiana University Northwest. The monthly release provides a snapshot of the health of the economy for the region and a forecast for the next six months.; In June the Northwest Indiana Coincident Index rose 0.4 points from 138.4 (revised up from 138.2) to 138.8. This growth continues a trend of expansion and recovery consistent with the national economy. The forecast for economic growth over the next six months remains optimistic with moderate growth of about 1-2%.

July 2014 Release

Arshanapalli, Bala; Pollak, Micah
Fonte: School of Business and Economics or Indiana University Northwest Publicador: School of Business and Economics or Indiana University Northwest
Tipo: Relatório
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.12%
In July the Northwest Indiana Coincident Index rose 0.2 points from 138.8 to 139.0. This growth continues a trend of expansion and recovery that is slower than the national economy. The forecast for economic growth over the next six months remains optimistic with moderate growth of 1-2%.

January 2015 Release

Arshanapalli, Bala; Pollak, Micah
Fonte: School of Business and Economics or Indiana University Northwest Publicador: School of Business and Economics or Indiana University Northwest
Tipo: Relatório
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.12%
In January the Northwest Indiana Coincident Index fell 0.1 points. A decrease in employment, especially in the construction sector, due to the unusually poor weather in January was the main contributing factor.

February 2015 Release

Arshanapalli, Bala; Pollak, Micah
Fonte: School of Business and Economics or Indiana University Northwest Publicador: School of Business and Economics or Indiana University Northwest
Tipo: Relatório
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.12%
In February the Northwest Indiana Coincident Index fell 0.9 points primarily due to a sharp decline in steel production. The forecast for the regional economy over the next six months continues to be for weak to no growth.

April 2015 Release

Arshanapalli, Bala; Pollak, Micah
Fonte: School of Business and Economics, Indiana University Northwest Publicador: School of Business and Economics, Indiana University Northwest
Tipo: Relatório
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.12%
In April the Northwest Indiana Coincident Index remained stable at its March value of 139.9. The forecast for the regional economy over the next six months continues to be for 1-2% growth.

May 2015 Release

Arshanapalli, Bala; Pollak, Micah
Fonte: School of Business and Economics, Indiana University Northwest Publicador: School of Business and Economics, Indiana University Northwest
Tipo: Relatório
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.12%
In May the Northwest Indiana Coincident Index rose by 0.6 points to 140.5. This growth was driven by a significant increase in employment in the region.

June 2015 Quarterly Summary

Arshanapalli, Bala; Pollak, Micah
Fonte: Universidade de Indiana Publicador: Universidade de Indiana
Tipo: Relatório
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.18%
The Northwest Indiana Coincident Index grew strongly during the second quarter of 2015, ending at a value of 140.8, up 0.3 points from last month and up 0.9 points from last quarter (+0.72%). Despite these gains, the index is only now returning to its start of the year level. The forecast for the regional economy over the next six months continues to be optimistic with moderate growth approaching 2%.

July 2015 Release

Arshanapalli, Bala; Pollak, Micah
Fonte: School of Business and Economics, Indiana University Northwest Publicador: School of Business and Economics, Indiana University Northwest
Tipo: Relatório
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.12%
In July the Northwest Indiana Coincident Index rose by 0.3 points to 141.1. This growth was driven primarily by an expansion of monthly steel production which increased by over 2% since June and by almost 9% since April.

August 2015 Release

Arshanapalli, Bala; Pollak, Micah
Fonte: School of Business and Economics, Indiana University Northwest Publicador: School of Business and Economics, Indiana University Northwest
Tipo: Relatório
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.12%
In August the Northwest Indiana Coincident Index rose 0.3 points to 141.4, marking the fifth month in a row with positive growth. This growth was driven primarily by a turnaround in employment, which expanded by 1,600 after the last two months of sharp declines, while the remaining factors remained stable.

May 2014 Release

Arshanapalli, Bala; Pollak, Micah
Fonte: School of Business and Economics or Indiana University Northwest Publicador: School of Business and Economics or Indiana University Northwest
Tipo: Relatório
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.28%
The Indiana University Northwest School of Business and Economics developed the NWI Coincident Index to accurately gauge the dynamics of our region's economy. Think of it as a monthly “snapshot“ to measure our region's progress. Are we expanding? Contracting?; In May 2014 the Northwest Indiana Coincident Index rose 0.6 points from 137.6 (revised up from 137.5) to 138.2, the largest single-month increase since February 2012. This strong growth continues the trend of expansion following the significant weather-related decline in the early months of 2014. The forecast for economic growth over the next six months remains optimistic with moderate growth of about 1-2%.

The missing link: using the NBER recession indicator to construct coincident and leading indices of economic activity

Vahid, Farshid; Issler, Joao
Fonte: Elsevier Publicador: Elsevier
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.24%
We use the information content in the decisions of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee to construct coincident and leading indices of economic activity for the United States. We identify the coincident index by assuming that the coincident variables

Um novo índice coincidente para a atividade industrial do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul

Morais, Igor Alexandre C. de; Portugal, Marcelo Savino
Fonte: Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade Publicador: Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade
Tipo: info:eu-repo/semantics/article; info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion; Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 01/03/2007 POR
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.18%
The present article uses the dynamic factor model of Stock and Watson to construct a coincident index with a clear statistical foundation able to represent the level of activity of the processing industry of the state of Rio Grande do Sul. In addition to this linear model, we also employ a regime switching methodology in order to determine the asymmetry of the business cycle in the industry on a statewide basis, pointing out periods of economic growth and stagnation in this sector. This new indicator is compared with the industrial performance index developed by the Federation of the Industries of the State of Rio Grande do Sul (FIERGS). The results show that both linear and nonlinear models estimate components that are highly correlated, such as the weighted average index currently calculated by FIERGS.; Este artigo utiliza o modelo de fator dinâmico de Stock e Watson para construir um índice coincidente que tenha um fundamento estatístico claro e que possa ser representativo do nível de atividade da indústria de transformação do Rio Grande do Sul. Além deste modelo linear, também é aplicada a metodologia de mudança de regime para caracterizar a assimetria no ciclo dos negócios na indústria do Estado, indicando os momentos de crescimento e queda na atividade econômica do setor com características diferenciadas. Este novo indicador é comparado com o índice de desempenho industrial (IDI) elaborado pela Federação das Indústrias do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul. Os resultados mostram que tanto o modelo linear quanto o não-linear estimam componentes que são altamente correlacionados como o índice de médias ponderadas atualmente calculado pela FIERGS.

Novo indicador coincidente para a atividade industrial brasileira

Hollauer, Gilberto; Issler, João Victor; Notini, Hilton H.
Fonte: Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade de RP Publicador: Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade de RP
Tipo: info:eu-repo/semantics/article; info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion; ; ; Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 01/03/2009 POR
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.28%
Neste trabalho aplicam-se e testam-se, dentro da amostra, algumas metodologias de construção de indicadores coincidentes para atividade industrial visando à detecção de ciclos de crescimento/recessão da atividade industrial. Especificamente, testou-se uma versão baseada no indicador coincidente do The Conference Board (TCB), uma versão modificada deste, na qual as volatilidades são modeladas, a abordagem de Stock-Watson tradicional e, finalmente, testou-se a abordagem de Mariano-Murasawa. Concluiu-se que, em geral, o índice TCB padrão é superior a outros métodos testados, sendo apenas competitivo com o método modificado. Mais ainda, o índice TCB tende a englobar os períodos recessivos apresentados pelos outros índices, sendo correspondentes com os períodos recessivos conhecidos do setor industrial.; In this paper we perform and evaluate, in sample, some methodologies for building of coincident indicators focusing on the detection of business cycle of the Industrial activity. Specifically, we try a version of coincident indicator based on the coincident indicator for economy of the TCB (The Conference Board), a modified version in which the volatility is modeled, a Stock-Watson approach and a Mariano-Murasawa approach. We conclude that...

October 2015 Release

Arshanapalli, Bala; Pollak, Micah
Fonte: School of Business and Economics, Indiana University Northwest Publicador: School of Business and Economics, Indiana University Northwest
Tipo: Relatório
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.18%
In October the Northwest Indiana Coincident Index remained at 141.3. The index remains unchanged despite a 5% increase in steel production and the addition of 2,300 jobs, which returns employment to the level from the start of the year.