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The Poverty Impacts of Climate Change : A Review of the Evidence

Skoufias, Emmanuel; Rabassa, Mariano; Olivieri, Sergio
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
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Climate change is believed to represent a serious challenge to poverty reduction efforts around the globe. This paper conducts an up-to-date review of three main strands of the literature analyzing the poverty impacts of climate change : (i) economy-wide growth models incorporating climate change impacts to work out consistent scenarios for how climate change might affect the path of poverty over the next decades; (ii) studies focusing on the poverty impacts of climate change in the agricultural sector; and (iii) studies exploring how past climate variability impacts poverty. The analysis finds that the majority of the estimates of the poverty impacts tend to ignore the effect of aggregate economic growth on poverty and household welfare. The empirical evidence available to date suggests that climate change will slow the pace of global poverty reduction, but the expected poverty impact will be relatively modest and far from reversing the major decline in poverty that is expected to occur over the next 40 years as a result of continued economic growth. The studies focusing on the sector-specific channels of impacts of climate change suggest that the estimated impacts of climate change on agricultural yields are generally a poor predictor of the poverty impacts of climate change at the national level due to heterogeneity in the ability of households to adapt. It also appears that the impacts of climate change are generally regressive...

Responding to Threats of Climate Change Mega-Catastrophes

Kousky, Carolyn; Rostapshova, Olga; Toman, Michael; Zeckhauser, Richard
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.42%
There is a low but uncertain probability that climate change could trigger "mega-catastrophes," severe and at least partly irreversible adverse effects across broad regions. This paper first discusses the state of current knowledge and the defining characteristics of potential climate change mega-catastrophes. While some of these characteristics present difficulties for using standard rational choice methods to evaluate response options, there is still a need to balance the benefits and costs of different possible responses with appropriate attention to the uncertainties. To that end, the authors present a qualitative analysis of three options for mitigating the risk of climate mega-catastrophes - drastic abatement of greenhouse gas emissions, development and implementation of geoengineering, and large-scale ex ante adaptation - against the criteria of efficacy, cost, robustness, and flexibility. They discuss the composition of a sound portfolio of initial investments in reducing the risk of climate change mega-catastrophes.

Ethiopia - A Country Study on the Economic Impacts of Climate Change

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
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66.42%
It is now widely recognized that low-income countries in tropical and sub-tropical regions will be disproportionally affected by the adverse impacts of climate change. The combination of already fragile environments, dominance of climate-sensitive sectors in economic activity, and low autonomous adaptive capacity in these regions implies a high vulnerability to the harmful effects of global warming on agricultural production and food security, water resources, human health, physical infrastructure and ecosystems. Recent authoritative scientific assessments emphasize that, even under the most optimistic assumptions about the success of future global mitigation action, an acceleration of adaptation efforts in developing countries over the next decades is essential to build resilience and reduce damage costs. The effects of climate change vary across countries, and adaptation and coping capabilities are influenced by geographical, economic, cultural and political factors. Successful adaptation programs must therefore take into account country-specific circumstances. This pilot study aims to develop a methodology that provides an economy-wide framework for analyzing economic impacts from climate change and potential adaptation policies that developing countries might undertake in the near and long term. To accomplish this objective...

El Salvador - Country Note on Climate Change Aspects in Agriculture

World Bank
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
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66.42%
This country note briefly summarizes information relevant to both climate change and agriculture in El Salvador, with focus on policy developments (including action plans and programs) and institutional make-up. Like most countries in Latin America, El Salvador has submitted one national communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) with a second one under preparation. According to the national greenhouse gases (GHG) inventory (2000), land use change and forestry (LUCF) is the second largest contributor to GHG emissions in the country, after the energy sector. The emission reduction potential of the sector is large. El Salvador counts with six clean development mechanism (CDM) projects, none of which are in the agricultural sector. It is estimated that Central America produces less than 0.5 percent of global carbon emissions, but it is one the most vulnerable regions to climate change related impacts on the planet. Agriculture is highly vulnerable to climate variability and to observed climate change...

Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security in Tanzania

Arndt, Channing; Farmer, William; Strzepek, Kenneth; Thurlow, James
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.42%
The consequences of climate change for agriculture and food security in developing countries are of serious concern. Due to their reliance on rain-fed agriculture, both as a source of income and consumption, many low-income countries are considered to be the most vulnerable to climate change. This paper estimates the impact of climate change on food security in Tanzania. Representative climate projections are used in calibrated crop models to predict crop yield changes for 110 districts in the country. The results are in turn imposed on a highly-disaggregated, recursive dynamic economy-wide model of Tanzania. The authors find that, relative to a no-climate-change baseline and considering domestic agricultural production as the principal channel of impact, food security in Tanzania appears likely to deteriorate as a consequence of climate change. The analysis points to a high degree of diversity of outcomes (including some favorable outcomes) across climate scenarios, sectors, and regions. Noteworthy differences in impacts across households are also present both by region and by income category.

Building Response Strategies to Climate Change in Agricultural Systems in Latin America

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
EN_US
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66.43%
This report, Building Response Strategies to Climate Change in Agricultural Systems in Latin America, reports the results of action research to identify and prioritize stakeholder driven, locally relevant response options to climate change in Latin American agriculture. The study has three primary objectives. The first is to develop and apply a pilot methodology for assessing agricultural vulnerability to climate change and for formulating adaptation response strategies to inform private and public sector decisions in the Latin America region. The study is principally concerned with adaptation responses to climate change, rather than mitigation. The second objective is to formulate recommendations for investments in each of the selected agro-ecosystems in a range of areas including agricultural technology adaptation, infrastructure investments, public and private sector support activities, and institutional and policy changes. The final objective is to disseminate the study results in the Latin America region and other parts of the world to help increase understanding of the impacts of climate change and alternative adaptation response strategies. This methodology can be used by the Bank to support client countries in defining response strategies...

Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change : Ethiopia

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
EN_US
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66.43%
The report is part of a broader study, the Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change (EACC), which has two objectives: (a) to develop a global estimate of adaptation costs for informing international climate negotiations; and (b) to help decision makers in developing countries assess the risks posed by climate change and design national strategies for adapting to it. This paper is one of a series of country-level studies, where national data were disaggregated to more local and sector levels, helping to understand adaptation from a bottom-up perspective. Ethiopia is heavily dependent on rainfed agriculture. Its geographical location and topography in combination with low adaptive capacity entail a high vulnerability to the impacts of climate change. Historically the country has been prone to extreme weather variability. Rainfall is highly erratic, most rain falls with high intensity, and there is a high degree of variability in both time and space. Since the early 1980s, the country has suffered seven major droughts five of which have led to famines in addition to dozens of local droughts. Major floods also occurred in different parts of the country in 1988...

Climate Change and Agriculture in Latin America, 2020-2050 : Projected Impacts and Response to Adaptation Strategies

Fernandes, Erick C.M.; Soliman, Ayat; Confalonieri, Roberto; Donatelli, Marcello; Tubiello, Francesco
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.42%
The impacts of climate change on agriculture are projected to be significant in coming decades, so response strategies, and their likely costs, should be evaluated now. That is why this study produced an open-access, crop-climate-economic impact modeling platform for Latin America and the Caribbean, that can be extended to other regions, then modified and improved by users as new crop, climate, and economic datasets become available. The new platform projects the likely impacts of agroclimatic factors on crop productivity, on the basis of climate projections from two general circulation models, and couples it with an economic model to derive and evaluate a range of climate-change scenarios and likely agricultural productivity and economic impacts over the next several decades.

Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change : Mozambique

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.42%
This report is part of a broader global study, the Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change (EACC), which has two principal objectives: (a) to develop a global estimate of adaptation costs for informing international climate negotiations; and (b) to help decision makers in developing countries assess the risks posed by climate change and design national strategies for adapting to it. The purpose of this study is to assist the Government of Mozambique in its efforts to understand the potential economic impacts of climate change and to support its efforts to develop sound policies and investments in response to these potential impacts. The Mozambique Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change (EACC) study selected four sectors that are believed to be vulnerable to climate change: (1) agriculture, which employs over 70 percent of the population; (2) energy, particularly hydropower generation, which is dependent on water runoff; (3) transport infrastructure, notably roads; and (4) coastal areas, which do not conform to a "sector" but characterize specific geographical areas vulnerable to floods and storm surges directly and indirectly related to sea level rise. The report ends with a discussion of seven lessons learned from the study. Volume 1contains the final report...

Adaptation to Climate Change -- Vulnerability Assessment and Economic Aspects : Plurinational State of Bolivia

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
EN_US
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66.43%
The Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change (EACC) study estimates that it will cost $75 - $100 billion each year for developing countries to adapt to climate change from 2010 to 2050 (World Bank 2009a). The study funded by the governments of the Netherlands, United Kingdom, and Switzerland has two specific objectives. The first is to develop a global estimate of adaptation coststo inform the international community s efforts on how to tailor adequate and sustainable support regarding new and additional resources to help vulnerable developing countries meet adaptation costs. The second objective is to support decision makers in developing countries to better evaluate and assess the risks posed by climate change and to better design strategies to adapt to climate change. The EACC study includes a global track to meet the first study objective and a case study track to meet the second objective. The country track comprises seven countries: Ethiopia, Mozambique, Ghana, Bangladesh, Vietnam, The Plurinational State of Bolivia...

Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change : Ghana, Volume 1. Main Report

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
EN_US
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66.42%
The report is organized as follows. The next section puts the study into context by briefly discussing the global EACC study and the EACC methodology, which was applied in this study at a more disaggregated level. The section highlights the differential impacts of climate change among different regions of the world, including Africa. Chapter three presents an overview of the methodology used, including the key assumptions. An effort has been made to present this information in nontechnical language where possible. The more technical aspects of the study can be found in the annexes. The sector results are contained in chapter four. The chapter begins with an overview of the Ghanaian economy, followed by the climate projections for Ghana and the overall economic impacts. Next, the results for each sector are presented in three parts: climate change impacts, the adaptation options, and the adaptation costs. The final chapter concludes with a summary and policy implications.

Climate Change in the Himalayas : Current State of Knowledge

Gautam, Mahesh R.; Timilsina, Govinda R.; Acharya, Kumud
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
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66.42%
This paper reviews the literature on the potential biophysical and economic impacts of climate change in the Himalayas. Existing observations indicate that the temperature is rising at a higher rate in Nepal and Chinese regions of the Himalayas compared with rest of the Himalayas. A declining trend of monsoon in the western Indian Himalayas and an increasing trend in the eastern Indian Himalayas have been observed, whereas increasing precipitation and stream flow in many parts of Tibetan Plateau are noted. Glaciers in both the eastern and western Himalayas are mostly retreating, but the majority of the glaciers in Karakorum are either stable or advancing slowly. Expansion of glacier lakes is reported, with the highest rate in Nepal and Bhutan. Most literature predicts increases in temperature and monsoon precipitations and decreases in winter precipitations in the future thereby leading to monsoon flooding and increased sediments in stream flow. Available hydrological simulations indicate reduced rainfall and shrinkage of glacier thereby leading to shortage of water supply for power generation and irrigation in winter particularly in highly glaciated basins. Projected economic impacts of glacial lake outburst floods can be substantial on the developed river basin with infrastructures and population centers. However...

Impacts of Climate Change on Brazilian Agriculture : Refocusing Impact Assessments to 2050

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Other Agricultural Study; Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.43%
This report evaluates the requirements for an assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture to guide policy makers on investment priorities and phasing. Because agriculture is vital for national food security and is a strong contributor to Brazil's GDP growth, there is growing concern that Brazilian agriculture is increasingly vulnerable to climate variability and change. To meet national development, food security, climate adaptation and mitigation, and trade goals over the next several decades, Brazil will need to significantly increase per area productivity of food and pasture systems while simultaneously reducing deforestation, rehabilitating millions of hectares of degraded land, and adapting to climate change. There is inadequate data to accurately model projected climate challenges facing Brazil. The report concludes that key integrated and linked interventions are needed in the short term to significantly improve currently available assessments of climate change impact on Brazilian agriculture and to guide policy makers with the priorities and phasing of needed investments.

Impacts of Climate Change on Brazilian Agriculture; Brasil - Impactos das mudancas climaticas na producao agricola Brasileira

Assad, Eduardo; Pinto, Hilton S.; Nassar, Andre; Harfuch, Leila; Freitas, Saulo; Farinelli, Barbara; Lundell, Mark; Fernandes, Erick C.M.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Other Agricultural Study; Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.43%
This report evaluates the requirements for an assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture to guide policy makers on investment priorities and phasing. Because agriculture is vital for national food security and is a strong contributor to Brazil's GDP growth, there is growing concern that Brazilian agriculture is increasingly vulnerable to climate variability and change. To meet national development, food security, climate adaptation and mitigation, and trade goals over the next several decades, Brazil will need to significantly increase per area productivity of food and pasture systems while simultaneously reducing deforestation, rehabilitating millions of hectares of degraded land, and adapting to climate change. There is inadequate data to accurately model projected climate challenges facing Brazil. The report concludes that key integrated and linked interventions are needed in the short term to significantly improve currently available assessments of climate change impact on Brazilian agriculture and to guide policy makers with the priorities and phasing of needed investments.

Economics of Climate Change in the Arab World : Case Studies from the Syrian Arab Republic, Tunisia, and the Republic of Yemen

Verner, Dorte; Breisinger, Clemens
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication; Publications & Research :: Publication
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.43%
This Economics of Climate Change in the Arab World is presents detailed case studies on the impacts of climate change in the Syrian Arab Republic, Tunisia, and the Republic of Yemen that were summarized. The Arab region is already being impacted by climate change through more frequent cyclones, floods, and prolonged droughts. Thousands of rural producers have seen their crops and herds devastated by extreme conditions, and have been forced to abandon their traditional way of life and migrate to crowded urban areas. Those who stay behind in rural areas struggle to cope with shortages of food and water. Climate change affects countries' economies and households through a variety of channels. Rising temperatures and changes in rainfall patterns affect agricultural yields of both rainfed and irrigated crops, and thus global and local food markets. Adaptation is a process that will take place over decades as new information makes policy makers reevaluate their climate vulnerabilities. Still, by seizing the opportunity to act now and act together...

Development and Climate Change : A Strategic Framework for the World Bank Group, Technical Annexes for FY09-11

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Development Policy Review (DPR); Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.43%
The framework provided a road map for climate action for the World Bank Group (WBG) over fiscal years 2009-11, setting out the WBG's objectives, principles, areas of focus, and major initiatives in the field of climate change. The framework was organized around six action areas: 1) supporting climate actions in country-led development processes; 2) mobilizing additional concessional and innovative finance; 3) facilitating the development of market-based financing mechanisms; 4) leveraging private sector resources; 5) supporting accelerated development and deployment of new technologies; and 6) stepping up policy research, knowledge, and capacity building. Climate change is one of the multiple stressors that affect the environment and impact on income and welfare. Further, its impact is worsened by other environmental damages. Looking ahead, strategies to combat climate change have to account for the continued need for rapid growth in developing countries. In this context, the World Bank is now looking at climate change in a holistic manner...

Adapting to Climate Change in Europe and Central Asia : Lessons from Recent Experiences and Suggested Future Directions

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Other Environmental Study; Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.43%
Like other regions, Eastern Europe and Central Asia is vulnerable to climate change and its potential socioeconomic impacts. While all countries are facing warmer temperatures, a changing hydrology, and more extreme events (for example, floods and droughts) and are concerned about the level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, they differ in their financial and institutional capacities to respond. Therefore, especially for the most vulnerable countries in the region (for example, those in Central Asia and southern Europe), adapting to climate risk adds a new dimension to the challenges of development, but also provides an opportunity to revisit priorities and accelerate reforms. The Europe and Central Asia (ECA) Region of the World Bank has been actively working on climate-related projects and has advanced a number of initiatives in response to climate change since the 1990s. Nevertheless, up until a few years ago the region's focus was mainly on emissions reduction (mitigation), rather than on helping countries respond to existing or expected impacts from climate change through adjustments in natural or human systems. But more recently...

Pro-Poor Adaptation to Climate Change in Urban Centers : Case Studies of Vulnerability and Resilience in Kenya and Nicaragua

Moser, Caroline; Norton, Andrew; Stein, Alfredo; Georgieva, Sophia
Fonte: World Bank Publicador: World Bank
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Other Social Protection Study
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.43%
The objective of this economic sector work (ESW) is to address these gaps by piloting a methodology capable of quickly and cost-effectively introducing into adaptation planning processes an appreciation of the significance of climate change impacts for poor people in informal urban settlements. Specifically in the two case study sites (Mombasa in Kenya and Esteli in Nicaragua) sought to: a) make visible climate change impacts of various kinds on poor people; b) illustrate what poor households, small businesses and groups in communities are doing to cope with such climate change impacts (experienced as increasingly variable and capricious weather patterns); and c) identify how policy and institutional systems can best build on local realities to develop pro-poor urban climate change adaptation actions, particularly relating to resilience. The report introduces an asset-based framework to analyze the vulnerability of urban poor people to severe weather events whose frequency or intensity climate change may be increasing...

Adapting to Climate Change in Eastern Europe and Central Asia

Fay, Marianne; Block, Rachel I.; Ebinger, Jane
Fonte: World Bank Publicador: World Bank
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication; Publications & Research :: Publication
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.43%
The climate is changing, and the Eastern Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region is vulnerable to the consequences. Many of the region's countries are facing warmer temperatures, a changing hydrology, and more extremes, droughts, floods, heat waves, windstorms, and forest fires. This book presents an overview of what adaptation to climate change might mean for Eastern Europe and Central Asia. It starts with a discussion of emerging best-practice adaptation planning around the world and a review of the latest climate projections. It then discusses possible actions to improve resilience organized around impacts on health, natural resources (water, biodiversity, and the coastal environment), the 'unbuilt' environment (agriculture and forestry), and the built environment (infrastructure and housing). The last chapter concludes with a discussion of two areas in great need of strengthening given the changing climate: disaster preparedness and hydro-meteorological services. This book has four key messages: a) contrary to popular perception...

Adapting to Climate Change : Assessing World Bank Group Experience--Phase III of the World Bank Group and Climate Change

Independent Evaluation Group
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Working Paper
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.43%
This paper constitutes the third and final volume of a series of assessments of the World Bank Group's engagement with climate change issues. The first focused on World Bank involvement in policy issues related to greenhouse gas mitigation. It was mainly concerned with the potential for energy price reform and energy efficiency policies to yield dividends in growth, fiscal savings, and climate change mitigation. The second volume examined project-level lessons related to greenhouse gas mitigation. This volume draws lessons from World Bank and International Finance Corporation (IFC) engagement in climate change adaptation. Like its predecessors, but to an even greater extent, this evaluation has a strong focus on learning, as the Bank Group explores a newly defined agenda. Climate change adaptation has only recently captured widespread policy attention. In strong contrast to climate mitigation, whose progress can be tracked along a single global metric (the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases), adaptation takes many forms, is intensely local, and resists easy definition and measurement. To a much greater extent even than climate change mitigation, adaptation is intertwined with development. Thus this evaluation looks not only at activities explicitly labeled 'climate adaptation' but also at a selection of those that might be expected to be adaptive...