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O paradoxo micro-macro da eficácia da ajuda: morto ou vivo? Uma revisão da literatura empírica cross-country

Moreira, Sandrina Berthault
Fonte: Repositório Comum de Portugal Publicador: Repositório Comum de Portugal
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em /04/2005 POR
Relevância na Pesquisa
75.94%
O presente trabalho tem um duplo objectivo. Em primeiro lugar, visa dotar o investigador de um quadro-síntese sobre os estudos econométricos que deram relevo à questão da eficácia da ajuda (em termos de crescimentos económico), utilizando uma abordagem cross-country. Esta ferramenta de apoio abrange desde os primeiros estudos realizados na década de setenta até aos últimos desenvolvimentos na área e apresenta uma breve descrição de cada estudo em análise (incluindo principais resultados e conclusões). Como segundo objectivo, este trabalho propõe efectuar uma análise global dos estudos acima referidos e respectivos resultados. Tendo em consideração o quadro teórico e os procedimentos metodológicos e econométricos mais comuns, identificam-se duas gerações de estudos cross-country da relação ajuda-crescimento. Os resultados da primeira geração de estudos, constam com os resultados dos estudos mais recentes, ao não validarem, de forma consciente, o impacto positivo da ajuda no crescimento dos PVD, dando, desta forma, fundamento ao paradoxo micro-macro.; This article has a dual purpose. Firstly, it is intended to provide researchers with an overview of econometric studies that have focussed on the effectiveness of foreign aid (in terms of economic growth) using a cross-country approach. This support tool begins with the first studies conducted in the 1970 sand goes right up to the latest developments in the area...

Pro-poor Growth: Explaining the Cross-Country Variation in the Growth Elasticity of Poverty

Chhibber, Ajay; Nayyar, Gaurav
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.92%
The aim of this paper is to analyse the cross-country variation in the growth elasticity of poverty across a sample of developing countries during the period from 1990 to 2000. In order to identify variables that may explain the cross-country variation in the growth elasticity of poverty, the paper sets up a theoretical framework. Subsequently, the explanatory power of these variables is tested empirically by panel data econometric analysis. For a sample of 52 low and middle income countries, it is found that the level of initial income inequality, credit available to the private sector, literacy, the extent of business regulations and trade openness are important determinants of the growth elasticity of poverty. Countries that reduce regulatory burdens, improve literacy, increase access to finance, undertake land reforms (asset redistribution), and provide safety nets while liberalizing trade can create more growth and ensure that it is pro-poor. The paper identifies variables (at a cross-country level) that may guide the conscious policies which create pro-poor growth.

Assessing the Impact of Public Spending on Growth : An Empirical Analysis for Seven Fast Growing Countries

Moreno-Dodson, Blanca
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Relevância na Pesquisa
75.92%
The goal of this paper is to understand better, at the empirical level, how public spending contributes to growth by focusing on both the level and composition of public spending, in connection to the dynamics of GDP per capita growth. It attempts to answer two specific questions: (a) What are the policy conditions under which public spending contributes positively to growth? and (b) What are the public spending components that have a stronger and longer-lasting impact on growth? The analysis is applied to a sample of seven fast-growing developing countries: Korea, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, Botswana, and Mauritius, which have been among the top performers in the world in terms of GDP per capita growth during the period (1960-2006). The rationale for this country sample selection is twofold. The first hypothesis is that, given their positive growth achievements over a relatively long time period, perhaps it is more straightforward to establish a link to public spending in those countries. Second...

HIV/AIDS and Social Capital in a Cross-Section of Countries

David, Antonio C.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.94%
This paper attempts to quantify the impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic on social capital with cross-country data. It estimates reduced-form regressions of the main determinants of social capital controlling for HIV prevalence, institutional quality, social distance, and economic indicators using data from the World Values Survey. The results obtained indicate that HIV prevalence affects social capital negatively. The empirical estimates suggest that a one standard deviation increase in HIV prevalence will lead to a 1 percent decline in trust, controlling for other determinants of social capital. If one moves from a country with a relatively low level of HIV prevalence such as Estonia, to a country with a high level such as Zimbabwe, one would observe an approximate 8 percent decline in social capital. These results are robust in a number of dimensions and highlight the empirical importance of an additional mechanism through which HIV/AIDS hinders the development process.

The Role of Sectoral Growth Patterns in Labor Market Development

Arias-Vazquez, Francisco Javier; Lee, Jean N.; Newhouse, David
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.87%
This paper investigates the relationship between sectoral growth patterns and employment outcomes. A broad cross-country analysis reveals that in middle-income countries, employment responds more to growth in less productive and more labor-intensive sectors. Employment in middle-income countries is susceptible to a resource curse, and grows rapidly in response to manufacturing and export manufacturing growth. Within Brazil, Indonesia, and Mexico, the effects of different sectoral growth patterns are context dependent, but differences in sectoral growth effects on employment and wages are substantially reduced in states or provinces with higher measured labor mobility. Consistent with this, aggregate employment and wage effects of growth by sector are close to uniform when examined over longer time horizons, after labor has an opportunity to adjust across sectors. The results reinforce the importance of growth in more labor-intensive sectors, and suggest that job mobility may be an important mechanism to diffuse the benefits of capital-intensive growth.

Poverty and Ethnicity : A Cross-Country Study of ROMA Poverty in Central Europe

Revenga, Ana; Ringold, Dena; Tracy, William Martin
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.88%
ROMA are the main poverty risk groups in many of the countries of Central and Eastern Europe. However, information on their living conditions, and the characteristics of their poverty is scarce, fragmented, and often anecdotal. This paper analyzes data from a new cross-country household survey, conducted by the Center for Comparative Research, at Yale University. The survey is the first of its kind which addresses the ethnic dimension of poverty across countries, covering Roma in Hungary, Bulgaria, and Romania. The paper finds that welfare among Roma households is significantly lower than that of non-Roma, in terms of both material deprivation (consumption and income), and other measures of deprivation, including housing status, education levels, and employment opportunities. Multivariate analysis confirm that, controlling for other household characteristics, there is a strong negative association between Roma ethnicity, and welfare. A large part of this association appears to be due to differences in endowments...

Bangladesh : Financial Sector Distress and Lost Economic Growth

Kojo, Naoko
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.86%
The financial system in Bangladesh has suffered from years of systemic and chronic problems, represented by weak supervision and enforcement, deficient accounting and reporting practices, and more importantly, widespread loan defaults and delinquencies. It is widely perceived that major inadequacies in the financial sector have had a considerable growth restraining effect over the years, by inhibiting private investment activities and productivity growth, as well as promoting misallocation of resources. It is paramount important that the government takes an urgent policy action to reform the mal-functioning financial sector. The main objective of such reforms is to develop a market oriented, disciplined modem system for mobilization of resources, efficient allocation of resources from both domestic and foreign sources, and reduction of poverty through sustained economic growth. This paper is organized as follows. Section two reviews the recent theoretical and empirical literature on finance and growth. Section three summarizes the main findings of our cross-country analysis...

Macroeconomic Adjustment and the Poor : Analytical Issues and Cross-Country Evidence

Agénor, Pierre-Richard
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, D.C. Publicador: World Bank, Washington, D.C.
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.92%
The author studies the links between macroeconomic adjustment and poverty. First, he summarizes some of the recent evidence on poverty in the developing world. Second, he reviews the various channels through which macroeconomic policies affect the poor. Third, the author emphasizes the role of the labor market. He develops an analytical framework that captures some of the main features of the urban labor market in developing countries and studies the effects of fiscal adjustment on wages, employment, and poverty. Fourth, he presents cross-country regressions linking various macroeconomic and structural variables to poverty. The author finds that output growth and real exchange rate depreciations tend to lower poverty, while illiteracy, income inequality, and macroeconomic volatility tend to increase poverty. In addition, the impact of growth on poverty appears to be asymmetric, and to result from a significant relationship between episodes of increasing poverty and negative growth rates.

Low Schooling for Girls, Slower Growth for All? Cross-Country Evidence on the Effect of Gender Inequality in Education on Economic Development

Klasen, Stephan
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
75.84%
Using cross-country and panel regressions, this article investigates how gender inequality in education affects long-term economic growth. Such inequality is found to have an effect on economic growth that is robust to changes in specifications and controls for potential endogeneities. The results suggest that gender inequality in education directly affects economic growth by lowering the average level of human capital. In addition, growth is indirectly affected through the impact of gender inequality on investment and population growth. Some 0.4-0.9 percentage points of differences in annual per capita growth rates between East Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and the Middle East can be accounted for by differences in gender gaps in education between these regions.

Just-in-Case Inventories : A Cross-Country Analysis

Guasch, J. Luis; Kogan, Joseph
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
75.9%
The authors find that raw materials inventories in the manufacturing sector in the 1970s and 1980s were two to three times higher in developing countries than in the United States, despite the fact that in most developing countries real interest rates were at least twice as high. Those significantly high levels of inventories are a burden and an obstacle to country competitiveness and need to be addressed. Poor infrastructure and ineffective regulation, as well as deficiencies in market development, rather than the traditional factors used in inventory models (such as interest rates and uncertainty), are the main determinants and explain these differences. Cross-country estimations show that a one standard deviation worsening of infrastructure increases raw materials inventories by 11 percent to 37 percent, and a one standard deviation worsening of markets increases raw materials inventories by 18 percent to 37 percent. These findings are robust across a number of different proxies and specifications, including an industry-level specification that controls for fixed country effects.

Trade, Growth, and Poverty

Dollar, David; Kraay, Aart
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.93%
The evidence from individual cases and from cross-country analysis supports the view that globalization leads to faster growth and poverty reduction in poor countries. To determine the effect of globalization on growth, poverty, and inequality, the authors first identify a group of developing countries that are participating more in globalization. China, India, and several other large countries are part of this group, so well over half the population of the developing world lives in these globalizing economies. Over the past 20 years, the post-1980 globalizers have seen large increases in trade and significant declines in tariffs. Their growth rates accelerated between the 1970s and the 1980s and again between the 1980s and the 1990s, even as growth in the rich countries and the rest of the developing world slowed. The post-1980 globalizers are catching up to the rich countries, but the rest of the developing world (the non-globalizers) is falling further behind. Next, the authors ask how general these patterns are...

Growth, Inequality, and Social Welfare : Cross-Country Evidence

Dollar, David; Kleineberg, Tatjana; Kraay, Aart
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.93%
Social welfare functions that assign weights to individuals based on their income levels can be used to document the relative importance of growth and inequality changes for changes in social welfare. In a large panel of industrial and developing countries over the past 40 years, most of the cross-country and over-time variation in changes in social welfare is due to changes in average incomes. In contrast, the changes in inequality observed during this period are on average much smaller than changes in average incomes, are uncorrelated with changes in average incomes, and have contributed relatively little to changes in social welfare.

Inequality of Opportunity and Economic Growth : A Cross-Country Analysis

Ferreira, Francisco H.G.; Lakner, Christoph; Lugo, Maria Ana; Ozler, Berk
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.96%
Income differences arise from many sources. While some kinds of inequality, caused by effort differences, might be associated with faster economic growth, other kinds, arising from unequal opportunities for investment, might be detrimental to economic progress. This study uses two new metadata sets, consisting of 118 household surveys and 134 Demographic and Health Surveys, to revisit the question of whether inequality is associated with economic growth and, in particular, to examine whether inequality of opportunity -- driven by circumstances at birth -- has a negative effect on subsequent growth. The results are suggestive but not robust: while overall income inequality is generally negatively associated with growth in the household survey sample, we find no evidence that this is due to the component associated with unequal opportunities. In the Demographic and Health Surveys sample, both overall wealth inequality and inequality of opportunity have a negative effect on growth in some of the preferred specifications...

Do culture and religion mitigate earnings management? Evidence from a cross-country analysis

Callen, J.; Morel, M.; Richardson, G.
Fonte: Palgrave Macmillan Ltd Publicador: Palgrave Macmillan Ltd
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em //2011 EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
75.79%
This study investigates whether culture in general and religion in particular mitigate earnings management. Using a cross-country data set, empirical tests based on rank regressions indicate that earnings management is unrelated to both religious affiliation and the degree of religiosity. In contrast, earnings management is found to be negatively related to the updated Hofstede cultural variable of individualism and positively related to uncertainty avoidance. The results also indicate that the positive impact of the legal environment in mitigating earnings management, documented by Leuz, can no longer be demonstrated after controlling for culture.; Jeffrey L. Callen, Mindy Morel, Grant Richardson

Relative Returns to Policy Reform : Evidence from Controlled Cross-Country Regressions

de Castro, Alexandre Samy; Goldin, Ian; Pereira da Silva, Luiz A.
Fonte: World Bank Publicador: World Bank
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
76.03%
The authors aim at contributing to understand the dispersion of returns from policy reforms using cross-country regressions. The authors compare the "before reform" with "after reform" GDP growth outcome of countries that undertook import-liberalization and fiscal policy reforms. They survey a large sample (about 54) of developing countries over the period 1980-99. The benefits of openness to trade and fiscal prudence have been extensively identified in the growth literature, but the evidence from simple cross-section analysis can sometimes be inconclusive and remains vulnerable to criticism on estimation techniques, such as identification, endogeneity, multi-colinearity, and the quality of the data. The authors use a different analytical framework that establishes additional controls. First, they construct a counterfactual control group. These are countries that-under specific thresholds-did not introduce policy reforms under scrutiny. Second, the authors also try to use the most appropriate variable of policy reform...

Is Investment in Africa Too Low or Too High? Macro and Micro Evidence

Devarajan, Shantayanan; Easterley, William R.; Pack, Howard
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.03%
The authors investigate the relationship between weak growth performance and low investment rates in Africa. The cross-country evidence suggests no direct relationship. The positive and significant coefficient on private investment appears to be driven by Botswana's presence in the sample. Allowing for the endogeneity of private investment, controlling for policy, and positing a nonlinear relationship make no difference to the conclusion. Higher investment in Africa would not by itself produce faster GDP growth. Africa's low investment and growth rates seem to be symptoms of underlying factors. To investigate those factors and to correct for some of the problems with cross-country analysis, the authors undertook a case study of manufacturing investment in Tanzania. They tried to identify why output per worker declined while capital per worker increased. Some of the usual suspects--such as shifts from high- to low-productivity subsectors, the presence of state-owned enterprises, or poor polices--did not play a significant role in this decline. Instead...

Measuring Economic Downside Risk and Severity : Growth at Risk

Wang, Yan; Yao, Yudong
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.85%
Output collapses, and crises are a fact of life. Severe economic downturns occur periodically, and have grave consequences on the poor. The authors propose a new measurement for economic downside risk, and severity: Growth at risk. Similar to the concept of Value at Risk in finance, Growth at Risk summarizes the expected maximum economic downturn over a target horizon at a given confidence level. After providing a taxonomy of growth risks, the authors construct a panel data, set on Growth at Risk for 84 countries, over the period 1980-98. On average, different regional groups experience very distinct Growth at Risk patterns over time. 1) Non-OECD countries experience a higher downturn risk, while OECD countries' downturn risks for both big, and small recessions are the lowest among all groups. 2) East Asia countries, which had been growing faster, had a high Growth at Risk for big downturns, at around six percent, and it rose dramatically at the end of the 1990s. 3) Latin America, and Sub-Saharan Africa also maintained high Growth at Risk for both big...

Tax Capacity and Tax Effort : Extended Cross-Country Analysis from 1994 to 2009

Le, Tuan Minh; Moreno-Dodson, Blanca; Bayraktar, Nihal
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.86%
One of the important factors for economic development is the existence of an effective tax system. This paper deals with the concept and empirical estimation of countries' taxable capacity and tax effort. It employs a cross-country study from a sample of 110 developing and developed countries during 1994-2009. Taxable capacity refers to the predicted tax-to-gross domestic product ratio that can be estimated empirically, taking into account a country's specific macroeconomic, demographic, and institutional features, which all change through time. Tax effort is defined as an index of the ratio between the share of the actual tax collection in gross domestic product and taxable capacity. The use of tax effort and actual tax collection benchmarks allows the ranking of countries into four different groups: low tax collection, low tax effort; high tax collection, high tax effort; low tax collection, high tax effort; and high tax collection, low tax effort. The analysis provides broad guidance for tax reforms in countries with various levels of taxable capacity and revenue intake.

Inequality, the Price of Nontradables, and the Real Exchange Rate : Theory and Cross-Country Evidence

Min, Hong-Ghi
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.98%
The author provides theoretical and empirical evidence of a negative association between income inequality and real exchange rates. First, he builds a theoretical model showing the transmission mechanism from inequality to real exchange rates. Second, using cross-country data, he demonstrates that the theoretical argument has empirical support. The association is large, significant, and robust to alternative specifications of the reduced form model and estimation methodologies. These findings provide empirical support for Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers, government strategies agreed on with the World Bank that hinge on four major objectives: accelerating equity-based growth, guaranteeing access to basic social services for the poor, expanding opportunities for employment and income-generating activities for the poor, and promoting good governance. The author's analysis indicates that "equity-based growth" and "export-driven growth" are compatible policy goals. But the negative relationship between inequality and real exchange rates does not imply that policies aimed at dramatic redistribution will automatically lead to real depreciation of the domestic currency...

Weak Instruments in Growth Regressions; Implications for Recent Cross-Country Evidence on Inequality and Growth

Kraay, Aart
Fonte: World Health Organization Publicador: World Health Organization
Tipo: Working Paper; Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.97%
This paper revisits four recent cross-country empirical studies on the effects of inequality on growth. All four studies report strongly significant negative effects, using the popular system generalized method of moments estimator that is frequently used in cross-country growth empirics. This paper shows that the internal instruments relied on by this estimator in these inequality-and-growth regressions are weak, and that weak instrument-consistent confidence sets for the effect of inequality on growth include a wide range of positive and negative values. This suggests that strong conclusions about the effect of inequality on growth— in either direction—cannot be drawn from these studies. This paper also systematically explores a wide range of alternative sets of internal instruments, and finds that problems of weak instruments are pervasive across these alternatives. More generally, the paper illustrates the importance of documenting instrument strength, basing inferences on procedures that are robust to weak instruments...