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On the basic reproduction number and the topological properties of the contact network: An epidemiological study in mainly locally connected cellular automata

SCHIMIT, P. H. T.; MONTEIRO, L. H. A.
Fonte: ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV Publicador: ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
45.95%
We study the spreading of contagious diseases in a population of constant size using susceptible-infective-recovered (SIR) models described in terms of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) and probabilistic cellular automata (PCA). In the PCA model, each individual (represented by a cell in the lattice) is mainly locally connected to others. We investigate how the topological properties of the random network representing contacts among individuals influence the transient behavior and the permanent regime of the epidemiological system described by ODE and PCA. Our main conclusions are: (1) the basic reproduction number (commonly called R(0)) related to a disease propagation in a population cannot be uniquely determined from some features of transient behavior of the infective group; (2) R(0) cannot be associated to a unique combination of clustering coefficient and average shortest path length characterizing the contact network. We discuss how these results can embarrass the specification of control strategies for combating disease propagations. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.; CNPq

A high-resolution human contact network for infectious disease transmission

Salathé, Marcel; Kazandjieva, Maria; Lee, Jung Woo; Levis, Philip; Feldman, Marcus W.; Jones, James H.
Fonte: National Academy of Sciences Publicador: National Academy of Sciences
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.14%
The most frequent infectious diseases in humans—and those with the highest potential for rapid pandemic spread—are usually transmitted via droplets during close proximity interactions (CPIs). Despite the importance of this transmission route, very little is known about the dynamic patterns of CPIs. Using wireless sensor network technology, we obtained high-resolution data of CPIs during a typical day at an American high school, permitting the reconstruction of the social network relevant for infectious disease transmission. At 94% coverage, we collected 762,868 CPIs at a maximal distance of 3 m among 788 individuals. The data revealed a high-density network with typical small-world properties and a relatively homogeneous distribution of both interaction time and interaction partners among subjects. Computer simulations of the spread of an influenza-like disease on the weighted contact graph are in good agreement with absentee data during the most recent influenza season. Analysis of targeted immunization strategies suggested that contact network data are required to design strategies that are significantly more effective than random immunization. Immunization strategies based on contact network data were most effective at high vaccination coverage.

ESTIMATING WITHIN-SCHOOL CONTACT NETWORKS TO UNDERSTAND INFLUENZA TRANSMISSION

Potter, Gail E.; Handcock, Mark S.; Longini, Ira M.; Halloran, M. Elizabeth
Fonte: PubMed Publicador: PubMed
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em /03/2012 EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.27%
Many epidemic models approximate social contact behavior by assuming random mixing within mixing groups (e.g., homes, schools, and workplaces). The effect of more realistic social network structure on estimates of epidemic parameters is an open area of exploration. We develop a detailed statistical model to estimate the social contact network within a high school using friendship network data and a survey of contact behavior. Our contact network model includes classroom structure, longer durations of contacts to friends than non-friends and more frequent contacts with friends, based on reports in the contact survey. We performed simulation studies to explore which network structures are relevant to influenza transmission. These studies yield two key findings. First, we found that the friendship network structure important to the transmission process can be adequately represented by a dyad-independent exponential random graph model (ERGM). This means that individual-level sampled data is sufficient to characterize the entire friendship network. Second, we found that contact behavior was adequately represented by a static rather than dynamic contact network. We then compare a targeted antiviral prophylaxis intervention strategy and a grade closure intervention strategy under random mixing and network-based mixing. We find that random mixing overestimates the effect of targeted antiviral prophylaxis on the probability of an epidemic when the probability of transmission in 10 minutes of contact is less than 0.004 and underestimates it when this transmission probability is greater than 0.004. We found the same pattern for the final size of an epidemic...

H3N2v and Other Influenza Epidemic Risk Based on Age-Specific Estimates of Sero-Protection and Contact Network Interactions

Skowronski, Danuta M.; Moser, Flavia S.; Janjua, Naveed Z.; Davoudi, Bahman; English, Krista M.; Purych, Dale; Petric, Martin; Pourbohloul, Babak
Fonte: Public Library of Science Publicador: Public Library of Science
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em 11/01/2013 EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
45.89%
Cases of a novel swine-origin influenza A(H3N2) variant (H3N2v) have recently been identified in the US, primarily among children. We estimated potential epidemic attack rates (ARs) based on age-specific estimates of sero-susceptibility and social interactions. A contact network model previously established for the Greater Vancouver Area (GVA), Canada was used to estimate average epidemic (infection) ARs for the emerging H3N2v and comparator viruses (H1N1pdm09 and an extinguished H3N2 seasonal strain) based on typical influenza characteristics, basic reproduction number (R0), and effective contacts taking into account age-specific sero-protection rates (SPRs). SPRs were assessed in sera collected from the GVA in 2009 or earlier (pre-H1N1pdm09) and fall 2010 (post-H1N1pdm09, seasonal A/Brisbane/10/2007(H3N2), and H3N2v) by hemagglutination inhibition (HI) assay. SPR was assigned per convention based on proportion with HI antibody titre ≥40 (SPR40). Recognizing that the HI titre ≥40 was established as the 50%sero-protective threshold we also explored for ½SPR40, SPR80 and a blended gradient defined as: ¼SPR20, ½SPR40, ¾SPR80, SPR160. Base case analysis assumed R0 = 1.40, but we also explored R0 as high as 1.80. With R0 = 1.40 and SPR40...

Highly dynamic animal contact network and implications on disease transmission

Chen, Shi; White, Brad J.; Sanderson, Michael W.; Amrine, David E.; Ilany, Amiyaal; Lanzas, Cristina
Fonte: Nature Publishing Group Publicador: Nature Publishing Group
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em 26/03/2014 EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.22%
Contact patterns among hosts are considered as one of the most critical factors contributing to unequal pathogen transmission. Consequently, networks have been widely applied in infectious disease modeling. However most studies assume static network structure due to lack of accurate observation and appropriate analytic tools. In this study we used high temporal and spatial resolution animal position data to construct a high-resolution contact network relevant to infectious disease transmission. The animal contact network aggregated at hourly level was highly variable and dynamic within and between days, for both network structure (network degree distribution) and individual rank of degree distribution in the network (degree order). We integrated network degree distribution and degree order heterogeneities with a commonly used contact-based, directly transmitted disease model to quantify the effect of these two sources of heterogeneity on the infectious disease dynamics. Four conditions were simulated based on the combination of these two heterogeneities. Simulation results indicated that disease dynamics and individual contribution to new infections varied substantially among these four conditions under both parameter settings. Changes in the contact network had a greater effect on disease dynamics for pathogens with smaller basic reproduction number (i.e. R0 < 2).

Dynamic contact network between ribosomal subunits enables rapid large-scale rotation during spontaneous translocation

Bock, Lars V.; Blau, Christian; Vaiana, Andrea C.; Grubmüller, Helmut
Fonte: Oxford University Press Publicador: Oxford University Press
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.01%
During ribosomal translation, the two ribosomal subunits remain associated through intersubunit bridges, despite rapid large-scale intersubunit rotation. The absence of large barriers hindering rotation is a prerequisite for rapid rotation. Here, we investigate how such a flat free-energy landscape is achieved, in particular considering the large shifts the bridges undergo at the periphery. The dynamics and energetics of the intersubunit contact network are studied using molecular dynamics simulations of the prokaryotic ribosome in intermediate states of spontaneous translocation. Based on observed occupancies of intersubunit contacts, residues were grouped into clusters. In addition to the central contact clusters, peripheral clusters were found to maintain strong steady interactions by changing contacts in the course of rotation. The peripheral B1 bridges are stabilized by a changing contact pattern of charged residues that adapts to the rotational state. In contrast, steady strong interactions of the B4 bridge are ensured by the flexible helix H34 following the movement of protein S15. The tRNAs which span the subunits contribute to the intersubunit binding enthalpy to an almost constant degree, despite their different positions in the ribosome. These mechanisms keep the intersubunit interaction strong and steady during rotation...

Contact Patterns in a High School: A Comparison between Data Collected Using Wearable Sensors, Contact Diaries and Friendship Surveys

Mastrandrea, Rossana; Fournet, Julie; Barrat, Alain
Fonte: Public Library of Science Publicador: Public Library of Science
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em 01/09/2015 EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.14%
Given their importance in shaping social networks and determining how information or transmissible diseases propagate in a population, interactions between individuals are the subject of many data collection efforts. To this aim, different methods are commonly used, ranging from diaries and surveys to decentralised infrastructures based on wearable sensors. These methods have each advantages and limitations but are rarely compared in a given setting. Moreover, as surveys targeting friendship relations might suffer less from memory biases than contact diaries, it is interesting to explore how actual contact patterns occurring in day-to-day life compare with friendship relations and with online social links. Here we make progresses in these directions by leveraging data collected in a French high school and concerning (i) face-to-face contacts measured by two concurrent methods, namely wearable sensors and contact diaries, (ii) self-reported friendship surveys, and (iii) online social links. We compare the resulting data sets and find that most short contacts are not reported in diaries while long contacts have a large reporting probability, and that the durations of contacts tend to be overestimated in the diaries. Moreover, measured contacts corresponding to reported friendship can have durations of any length but all long contacts do correspond to a reported friendship. On the contrary...

EpiFire: An Open Source C++ Library and Application for Contact Network Epidemiology

Hladish, Thomas; Melamud, Eugene; Galvani, Alison; Meyers, Lauren Ancel; Barrera, Luis Alberto
Fonte: BioMed Central Publicador: BioMed Central
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.14%
Background: Contact network models have become increasingly common in epidemiology, but we lack a flexible programming framework for the generation and analysis of epidemiological contact networks and for the simulation of disease transmission through such networks. Results: Here we present EpiFire, an applications programming interface and graphical user interface implemented in C++, which includes a fast and efficient library for generating, analyzing and manipulating networks. Network-based percolation and chain-binomial simulations of susceptible-infected-recovered disease transmission, as well as traditional non-network mass-action simulations, can be performed using EpiFire. Conclusions: EpiFire provides an open-source programming interface for the rapid development of network models with a focus in contact network epidemiology. EpiFire also provides a point-and-click interface for generating networks, conducting epidemic simulations, and creating figures. This interface is particularly useful as a pedagogical tool.

How the Dynamics and Structure of Sexual Contact Networks Shape Pathogen Phylogenies

Robinson, Katy; Fyson, Nick; Cohen, Ted; Fraser, Christophe; Colijn, Caroline
Fonte: Public Library of Science Publicador: Public Library of Science
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.15%
The characteristics of the host contact network over which a pathogen is transmitted affect both epidemic spread and the projected effectiveness of control strategies. Given the importance of understanding these contact networks, it is unfortunate that they are very difficult to measure directly. This challenge has led to an interest in methods to infer information about host contact networks from pathogen phylogenies, because in shaping a pathogen's opportunities for reproduction, contact networks also shape pathogen evolution. Host networks influence pathogen phylogenies both directly, through governing opportunities for evolution, and indirectly by changing the prevalence and incidence. Here, we aim to separate these two effects by comparing pathogen evolution on different host networks that share similar epidemic trajectories. This approach allows use to examine the direct effects of network structure on pathogen phylogenies, largely controlling for confounding differences arising from population dynamics. We find that networks with more heterogeneous degree distributions yield pathogen phylogenies with more variable cluster numbers, smaller mean cluster sizes, shorter mean branch lengths, and somewhat higher tree imbalance than networks with relatively homogeneous degree distributions. However...

A Simulation Study Comparing Epidemic Dynamics on Exponential Random Graph and Edge-Triangle Configuration Type Contact Network Models

Rolls, David A.; Wang, Peng; McBryde, Emma; Pattison, Philippa; Robins, Garry
Fonte: Public Library of Science Publicador: Public Library of Science
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em 10/11/2015 EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.19%
We compare two broad types of empirically grounded random network models in terms of their abilities to capture both network features and simulated Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemic dynamics. The types of network models are exponential random graph models (ERGMs) and extensions of the configuration model. We use three kinds of empirical contact networks, chosen to provide both variety and realistic patterns of human contact: a highly clustered network, a bipartite network and a snowball sampled network of a “hidden population”. In the case of the snowball sampled network we present a novel method for fitting an edge-triangle model. In our results, ERGMs consistently capture clustering as well or better than configuration-type models, but the latter models better capture the node degree distribution. Despite the additional computational requirements to fit ERGMs to empirical networks, the use of ERGMs provides only a slight improvement in the ability of the models to recreate epidemic features of the empirical network in simulated SIR epidemics. Generally, SIR epidemic results from using configuration-type models fall between those from a random network model (i.e., an Erdős-Rényi model) and an ERGM. The addition of subgraphs of size four to edge-triangle type models does improve agreement with the empirical network for smaller densities in clustered networks. Additional subgraphs do not make a noticeable difference in our example...

The effects of host contact network structure on pathogen diversity and strain structure

Buckee, Caroline O'F.; Koelle, Katia; Mustard, Matthew J.; Gupta, Sunetra
Fonte: National Academy of Sciences Publicador: National Academy of Sciences
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
45.96%
For many important pathogens, mechanisms promoting antigenic variation, such as mutation and recombination, facilitate immune evasion and promote strain diversity. However, mathematical models have shown that host immune responses to polymorphic antigens can structure pathogen populations into discrete strains with nonoverlapping antigenic repertoires, despite recombination. Until now, models of strain evolution incorporating host immunity have assumed a randomly mixed host population. Here, we illustrate the effects of different host contact networks on strain diversity and dynamics by using a stochastic, spatially heterogeneous analogue of this model. For randomly mixed populations, our model confirms that cross-immunity to strains sharing alleles at antigenic loci may structure the pathogen population into discrete, nonoverlapping strains. However, this structure breaks down once the assumption of random mixing is relaxed, and an increasingly diverse pathogen population emerges as contacts between hosts become more localized. These results imply that host contact network structure plays a significant role in mediating the emergence of pathogen strain structure and dynamics.

Characterization of Protein–Protein Interfaces through a Protein Contact Network Approach

Di Paola, Luisa; Platania, Chiara Bianca Maria; Oliva, Gabriele; Setola, Roberto; Pascucci, Federica; Giuliani, Alessandro
Fonte: Frontiers Media S.A. Publicador: Frontiers Media S.A.
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em 30/10/2015 EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
45.96%
Anthrax toxin comprises three different proteins, jointly acting to exert toxic activity: a non-toxic protective agent (PA), toxic edema factor (EF), and lethal factor (LF). Binding of PA to anthrax receptors promotes oligomerization of PA, binding of EF and LF, and then endocytosis of the complex. Homomeric forms of PA, complexes of PA bound to LF and to the endogenous receptor capillary morphogenesis gene 2 (CMG2) were analyzed. In this work, we characterized protein–protein interfaces (PPIs) and identified key residues at PPIs of complexes, by means of a protein contact network (PCN) approach. Flexibility and global and local topological properties of each PCN were computed. The vulnerability of each PCN was calculated using different node removal strategies, with reference to specific PCN topological descriptors, such as participation coefficient, contact order, and degree. The participation coefficient P, the topological descriptor of the node’s ability to intervene in protein inter-module communication, was the key descriptor of PCN vulnerability of all structures. High P residues were localized both at PPIs and other regions of complexes, so that we argued an allosteric mechanism in protein–protein interactions. The identification of residues...

Modeling workplace contact networks: The effects of organizational structure, architecture, and reporting errors on epidemic predictions

Potter, Gail E.; Smieszek, Timo; Sailer, Kerstin
Fonte: PubMed Publicador: PubMed
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.15%
Face-to-face social contacts are potentially important transmission routes for acute respiratory infections, and understanding the contact network can improve our ability to predict, contain, and control epidemics. Although workplaces are important settings for infectious disease transmission, few studies have collected workplace contact data and estimated workplace contact networks. We use contact diaries, architectural distance measures, and institutional structures to estimate social contact networks within a Swiss research institute. Some contact reports were inconsistent, indicating reporting errors. We adjust for this with a latent variable model, jointly estimating the true (unobserved) network of contacts and duration-specific reporting probabilities. We find that contact probability decreases with distance, and that research group membership, role, and shared projects are strongly predictive of contact patterns. Estimated reporting probabilities were low only for 0–5 min contacts. Adjusting for reporting error changed the estimate of the duration distribution, but did not change the estimates of covariate effects and had little effect on epidemic predictions. Our epidemic simulation study indicates that inclusion of network structure based on architectural and organizational structure data can improve the accuracy of epidemic forecasting models.

Estimating within-school contact networks to understand influenza transmission

Potter, Gail E.; Handcock, Mark S.; Longini, Jr., Ira M.; Halloran, M. Elizabeth
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.24%
Many epidemic models approximate social contact behavior by assuming random mixing within mixing groups (e.g., homes, schools and workplaces). The effect of more realistic social network structure on estimates of epidemic parameters is an open area of exploration. We develop a detailed statistical model to estimate the social contact network within a high school using friendship network data and a survey of contact behavior. Our contact network model includes classroom structure, longer durations of contacts to friends than nonfriends and more frequent contacts with friends, based on reports in the contact survey. We performed simulation studies to explore which network structures are relevant to influenza transmission. These studies yield two key findings. First, we found that the friendship network structure important to the transmission process can be adequately represented by a dyad-independent exponential random graph model (ERGM). This means that individual-level sampled data is sufficient to characterize the entire friendship network. Second, we found that contact behavior was adequately represented by a static rather than dynamic contact network.; Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/11-AOAS505 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org)

Force chains and contact network topology in packings of elongated particles

Azema, Émilien; Radjaï, Farhang
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em 16/08/2011
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.06%
By means of contact dynamic simulations, we investigate the contact network topology and force chains in two-dimensional packings of elongated particles modeled by rounded-cap rectangles. The morphology of large packings of elongated particles in quasistatic equilibrium is complex due to the combined effects of local nematic ordering of the particles and orientations of contacts between particles. We show that particle elongation affects force distributions and force/fabric anisotropy via various local structures allowed by steric exclusions and the requirement of force balance. As a result, the force distributions become increasingly broader as particles become more elongated. Interestingly, the weak force network transforms from a passive stabilizing agent with respect to strong force chains to an active force-transmitting network for the whole system. The strongest force chains are carried by side/side contacts oriented along the principal stress direction.; Comment: Soumis a Physical Review E

Statistics of the contact network in frictional and frictionless granular packings

Silbert, Leonardo E.; Grest, Gary S.; Landry, James W.
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em 23/08/2002
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.06%
Simulated granular packings with different particle friction coefficient mu are examined. The distribution of the particle-particle and particle-wall normal and tangential contact forces P(f) are computed and compared with existing experimental data. Here f equivalent to F/F-bar is the contact force F normalized by the average value F-bar. P(f) exhibits exponential-like decay at large forces, a plateau/peak near f = 1, with additional features at forces smaller than the average that depend on mu. Computations of the force-force spatial distribution function and the contact point radial distribution function indicate that correlations between forces are only weakly dependent on friction and decay rapidly beyond approximately three particle diameters. Distributions of the particle-particle contact angles show that the contact network is not isotropic and only weakly dependent on friction. High force-bearing structures, or force chains, do not play a dominant role in these three dimensional, unloaded packings.; Comment: 11 pages, 13 figures, submitted to PRE

Efficient Reachability Query Evaluation in Large Spatiotemporal Contact Datasets

Shirani-Mehr, Houtan; Kashani, Farnoush Banaei; Shahabi, Cyrus
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em 30/05/2012
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.2%
With the advent of reliable positioning technologies and prevalence of location-based services, it is now feasible to accurately study the propagation of items such as infectious viruses, sensitive information pieces, and malwares through a population of moving objects, e.g., individuals, mobile devices, and vehicles. In such application scenarios, an item passes between two objects when the objects are sufficiently close (i.e., when they are, so-called, in contact), and hence once an item is initiated, it can penetrate the object population through the evolving network of contacts among objects, termed contact network. In this paper, for the first time we define and study reachability queries in large (i.e., disk-resident) contact datasets which record the movement of a (potentially large) set of objects moving in a spatial environment over an extended time period. A reachability query verifies whether two objects are "reachable" through the evolving contact network represented by such contact datasets. We propose two contact-dataset indexes that enable efficient evaluation of such queries despite the potentially humongous size of the contact datasets. With the first index, termed ReachGrid, at the query time only a small necessary portion of the contact network which is required for reachability evaluation is constructed and traversed. With the second approach...

Modelling workplace contact networks: the effects of organizational structure, architecture, and reporting errors on epidemic predictions

Potter, Gail E.; Smieszek, Timo; Sailer, Kerstin
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.15%
Face-to-face social contacts are potentially important transmission routes for acute respiratory infections, and understanding the contact network can improve our ability to predict, contain, and control epidemics. Although workplaces are important settings for infectious disease transmission, few studies have collected workplace contact data and estimated workplace contact networks. We use contact diaries, architectural distance measures, and institutional structures to estimate social contact networks within a Swiss research institute. Some contact reports were inconsistent, indicating reporting errors. We adjust for this with a latent variable model, jointly estimating the true (unobserved) network of contacts and duration-specific reporting probabilities. We find that contact probability decreases with distance, and research group membership, role, and shared projects are strongly predictive of contact patterns. Estimated reporting probabilities were low only for 0-5 minute contacts. Adjusting for reporting error changed the estimate of the duration distribution, but did not change the estimates of covariate effects and had little effect on epidemic predictions. Our epidemic simulation study indicates that inclusion of network structure based on architectural and organizational structure data can improve the accuracy of epidemic forecasting models.; Comment: 36 pages...

A High-Resolution Human Contact Network for Infectious Disease Transmission

Salathé, Marcel; Kazandjieva, Maria; Lee, Jung Woo; Levis, Philip; Feldman, Marcus W.; Jones, James H.
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.14%
The most frequent infectious diseases in humans - and those with the highest potential for rapid pandemic spread - are usually transmitted via droplets during close proximity interactions (CPIs). Despite the importance of this transmission route, very little is known about the dynamic patterns of CPIs. Using wireless sensor network technology, we obtained high-resolution data of CPIs during a typical day at an American high school, permitting the reconstruction of the social network relevant for infectious disease transmission. At a 94% coverage, we collected 762,868 CPIs at a maximal distance of 3 meters among 788 individuals. The data revealed a high density network with typical small world properties and a relatively homogenous distribution of both interaction time and interaction partners among subjects. Computer simulations of the spread of an influenza-like disease on the weighted contact graph are in good agreement with absentee data during the most recent influenza season. Analysis of targeted immunization strategies suggested that contact network data are required to design strategies that are significantly more effective than random immunization. Immunization strategies based on contact network data were most effective at high vaccination coverage.

Simulation of an SEIR infectious disease model on the dynamic contact network of conference attendees

Stehlé, Juliette; Voirin, Nicolas; Barrat, Alain; Cattuto, Ciro; Colizza, Vittoria; Isella, Lorenzo; Régis, Corinne; Pinton, Jean-François; Khanafer, Nagham; Broeck, Wouter Van den; Vanhems, Philippe
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em 24/08/2011
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.1%
The spread of infectious diseases crucially depends on the pattern of contacts among individuals. Knowledge of these patterns is thus essential to inform models and computational efforts. Few empirical studies are however available that provide estimates of the number and duration of contacts among social groups. Moreover, their space and time resolution are limited, so that data is not explicit at the person-to-person level, and the dynamical aspect of the contacts is disregarded. Here, we want to assess the role of data-driven dynamic contact patterns among individuals, and in particular of their temporal aspects, in shaping the spread of a simulated epidemic in the population. We consider high resolution data of face-to-face interactions between the attendees of a conference, obtained from the deployment of an infrastructure based on Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) devices that assess mutual face-to-face proximity. The spread of epidemics along these interactions is simulated through an SEIR model, using both the dynamical network of contacts defined by the collected data, and two aggregated versions of such network, in order to assess the role of the data temporal aspects. We show that, on the timescales considered, an aggregated network taking into account the daily duration of contacts is a good approximation to the full resolution network...