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What Explains Aid Project Success in Post-Conflict Situations?

Chauvet, Lisa; Collier, Paul; Duponchel, Marguerite
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.34%
This paper investigates the effectiveness of post-conflict aid at the project level and aims to identify post-conflict situations as a window of opportunity for project success. The Independent Evaluation Group dataset provides extensive information on the characteristics of World Bank projects including an independent rating of their success, supervision and evaluation quality. The paper estimates the probability of success of aid projects depending on the characteristics of the intervention and looks for possible special patterns in post civil war situations. The results suggest that the probability of success of World Bank projects increases as peace lasts. Supervision appears to be a crucial determinant of the success of projects, especially during the first years of peace. Although the results of the sector-level analysis need to be taken with caution, the authors find that projects in the transport sector and in the urban development sector appear more successful in post-conflict environments. On the contrary...

Who Are the Net Food Importing Countries?

Ng, Francis; Aksoy, M. Ataman
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.36%
The purpose of this paper is to update the information on net food importing countries, using different definitions of food, separating countries by their level of income, whether they are in conflict and whether they are significant oil exporters. The study also estimates the changes in net food importing status of these countries over the last two and a half decades, and, most important, the study measures the relative importance of these net food imports in the import basket of the countries. Our results show that while many low-income countries are net food importers, the importance and potential impact of the net food importing status has been highly exaggerated. Many low-income countries that have larger food deficits are either oil exporters or countries in conflict. Food deficits of most low-income countries are not that significant as a percentage of their imports. Our results also show that only 6 low-income countries have food deficits that are more than 10 percent of their imports. Last two decades have seen a significant improvement in the food trade balances of low-income developing countries. SSA low-income countries are an exception to this trend. On the other hand...

The Investment Climate in Post-Conflict Situations

Mills, Rob; Fan, Qimiao
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.21%
This paper is a policy review of the role of investment climate in post-conflict situations. It summarizes the broad range of ways in which conflict negatively affects the investment climate, from macroeconomic instability to a degraded regulatory framework. It stresses that attention needs to be paid to the broader "enabling environment," including institutions, governance, capacity, and social capital. It suggests that a vibrant private sector underpinned by a good investment climate is particularly important in the post-conflict recovery phase for three reasons: it generates employment, provides public services where the state has retrenched, and builds social capital. By addressing these important "greed and grievance" factors, the private sector helps reduce the likelihood of a return to conflict. The paper concludes by distilling key lessons relating to the management of the post-conflict reform process. Despite the importance of a good investment climate, greater effort is needed to ensure that private sector development reforms are included in the first round of post-conflict policymaking. Local ownership of reforms and enhanced local capacity to implement them is key to sustainable improvements in the investment climate. Development partners have an important role to play in facilitating dialogue and promoting partnerships between public and private sector stakeholders. At the same time...

Building Capacity in Post-Conflict Countries

McKechnie, Alastair J.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.42%
This brief looks at the challenge of building capacity in post-conflict countries, reviews options for creating capacity, and identifies trade-offs between a rapid result and longer-term impacts of capacity strategies. Six lessons for more sustainable approaches to capacity building are identified: (a) leadership matters, (b) incentives also matter, (c) build on what exists, (d) arrange learning activities within a country wherever possible, (e) training needs to be defined in its strategic capacity, and (f) training should build on the comparative advantage of international partners.

Frontier Finance - Microfinance as a Prudent First Intervention in Post-Conflict Countries

Earne, Julie; Gutin, John; Jagun, Jumoke
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.35%
While there is growing support for microfinance globally, the unmet demand remains enormous, particularly in Africa, and especially in post-conflict and frontier countries. In Liberia, Sierra Leone, the Central African Republic and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), less than 1 percent of the population has access to a bank account. Yet as these countries continue to stabilize, the demand for secure financial services is exploding. The post-conflict nature of these countries magnifies the need for microfinance services, as micro and small enterprises (MSEs) operating at a subsistence level are often the only surviving businesses after a conflict.

Post-Conflict Infrastructure : Trends in Aid and Investment Flows

Schwartz, Jordan; Halkyard, Pablo
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.39%
As war and civil strife subside, can governments turn to the private sector to restore basic services? Post-conflict countries suffer from disproportionately low levels of private investment in infrastructure, with only small-scale service providers likely to emerge during, and right after conflict. Larger investors are slow to enter, and when they do, they focus almost exclusively on the easily secured, and most profitable sub-sectors. Yet, some countries have been able to couple aggressive reform and liberalized policies to attract infrastructure investments soon after conflict abates. What does their experience tell us? This Note summarizes an analysis from a companion paper, and explores policy options for post-conflict countries seeking to attract private investment in infrastructure. It suggests improving the underlying factors influencing political and economic risk ratings, for it may lead to faster growth in infrastructure investment in conflict-affected countries, than in other developing countries.

Local Conflict in Indonesia : Incidence and Patterns

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.4%
Major intrastate conflicts, such as civil wars, and the resulting set-backs for economic and political development, have received increasing research attention in recent years. A growing literature has sought to investigate conditions that affect the probability of countries experiencing large-scale violence, in particular the likelihood of civil war. However, many developing countries are affected by high levels of communal and inter-communal conflict that does not take the form of a civil war, but nonetheless results in significant casualties, destruction of livelihoods and property. Pervasive and widespread local conflict is not only a barrier to development but in some cases threatens to escalate into larger incidents of unrest or even fully-fledged violent conflict. Countries undergoing difficult political and economic transitions appear especially vulnerable.This paper defines local conflict in Indonesia in terms of its incidence and impact measured within a locality, while the causes of local conflict may be endogenous or extra-local. The Indonesia statistical agency has adopted a definition of local conflict beyond some threshold of violence within a given locality in the past year...

Conflict Prevention and Reconstruction

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.47%
Those of us helping countries to build capacity to manage reconstruction after a conflict has ended need to be fully aware of the context in which we operate. Apart from the obvious destruction of infrastructure, presence of armed groups and difficult working conditions, there are several other characteristics of post-conflict conditions that we need to appreciate. First, civil conflicts seldom end in clear cut victories for one side. Post-conflict conditions are inherently unstable. There are winners and losers. The winners may have settled for less than they sought to achieve. Even if one side appears to have won, how the winner treats the defeated party will be critical to whether national reconciliation takes place and the sustainability of peace. A new government may be an unstable alliance of competing parties or consist of an uneasy collection of former fighters and technocrats who sat out the war in relative comfort abroad.

Building Capacity in Post-Conflict Countries

Mckechnie, Alastair J.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.28%
This note looks at the challenge of capacity building in post conflict countries, including options for creating capacity and the trade-offs between speed and longer-term impact, the need to ensure that aid management agencies include sunset provisions, and six proposed general lessons for more sustainable capacity building.

Building Capacity in Post-Conflict Countries

McKechnie, Alastair J.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.19%
This note looks at the challenge of capacity building in post conflict countries, including at options for creating capacity, and the trade-offs between speed, and longer-term impact, the need to ensure that aid management agencies include sunset provisions, and six proposed general lessons for more sustainable capacity building. Rebuilding institutions is much more difficult than rebuilding damaged infrastructure. Capacity building is an enormous challenge, a challenge that requires imagination, cooperation, and hard work among those who seek to improve the conditions of conflict-affected countries.

Natural Resources and Violent Conflict : Options and Actions

Bannon, Ian; Collier, Paul
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.52%
Recent research undertaken by the Bank and others, suggest that developing countries face substantially higher risks of violent conflict, and poor governance if highly dependent on primary commodities. Revenues from the legal, or illegal exploitation of natural resources have financed devastating conflicts in large numbers of countries across regions. When a conflict erupts, it not only sweeps away decades of painstaking development efforts, but creates costs and consequences-economic, social, political, regional-that live on for decades. The outbreak of violent domestic conflict amounts to a spectacular failure of development-in essence, development in reverse. Even where countries initially manage to avoid violent conflict, large rents from natural resources can weaken state structures, and make governments less accountable, often leading to the emergence of secessionist rebellions, and all-out civil war. Although natural resources are never the sole source of conflict, and do not make conflict inevitable...

Aid, Policy, and Growth in Post-Conflict Societies

Collier, Paul; Hoeffler, Anke
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.52%
Countries emerging from civil war attract both aid and policy advice. This paper provides the first systematic empirical analysis of aid and policy reform in the post-conflict growth process. It is based on a comprehensive data set of large civil wars and covers 27 countries that were in their first decade of post-conflict economic recovery during the 1990s. The authors first investigate whether the absorptive capacity for aid is systematically different in post-conflict countries. They find that during the first three post-conflict years, absorptive capacity is no greater than normal, but that in the rest of the first decade it is approximately double its normal level. So ideally, aid should phase in during the decade. Historically, aid has not, on average, been higher in post-conflict societies, and it has tended to taper out over the course of the decade. The authors then investigate whether the contribution of policy to growth is systematically different in post-conflict countries, and in particular...

Veterans : Pensions and Other Compensation in Post-Conflict Countries

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Brief; Publications & Research
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.32%
The question of how best to compensate veterans in the aftermath of war is one that is relevant to many developing countries. Civil wars and independence struggles often affect the poorest regions of the world, and leave an enormous financial burden, including benefits to former fighters and their survivors. The most recent examples are Afghanistan and Iraq. One of the many challenges post-conflict countries face is how to reduce the size of armies once the fighting stops, and how to assist former fighters or veterans, in a sustainable manner once they are no longer part of the army. Fiscal, social, or political pressures may all play a role in this process, including in peace-time. This note attempts to provide the reader with an overview of the different dimensions of veterans policy development, with particular reference to countries emerging from protracted conflict. Special attention is given to the common problems of definition, inclusion, financial sustainability and implementation, as well as the linkages between disarmament...

Recent Bank Support for Civil Service Reconstruction in Post-Conflict Countries

Mukherjee, Ranjana
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Brief; Publications & Research
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.18%
Civil service reconstruction is important in post-conflict countries because conflict erodes institutions and civil service capacity. And because successful reconstruction-in all sectors -requires domestic capacity to implement projects, a weak civil service undermines overall reconstruction efforts. Moreover, donor assistance is crucial to a country's rebuilding, and coordinating such assistance requires a certain amount of civil service capacity. In addition, the Bank has found that country ownership is essential for successful projects. But country ownership can be jeopardized if international agencies and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) dominate reconstruction efforts, overwhelming states already weakened by conflict. Civil service reconstruction offers an opportunity to start anew, with little of the resistance to civil service reform often encountered from politicians and civil servants. It allows good practices to be instilled from the outset-without having to undo bad ones.

Nigeria - Strategic Conflict Assessment : Methodology, Key Findings and Lessons Learnt

Lyons, Sarah; Reinermann, Dirk
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Brief; Publications & Research
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.21%
The need to support a Strategic Conflict Assessment (SCA) was agreed by donors in December 2001, and supported by President Obasanjo. The central guiding principle was that the SCA process should be led by the national Institute for Peace and Conflict Resolution (IPCR), in the Presidency. Local ownership and capacity building were considered key to achieving credibility and sustainability. Technical and financial support was provided to IPCR and local stakeholders by some of Nigeria's major international donors: DFID; UNDP; USAID; and the World Bank, who formed an SCA Advisory Group to IPCR. The Advisory Group proved to be a vital structure for collective decision-making. This approach was chosen over the more traditional single-donor approach to draw upon a wide range of international expertise and experience, to share resource costs and to mitigate political risk to donors. Donor cooperation and collaboration meant that donors were able to cover areas where partners may not have had the capacity or mandate. This was the first time...

Recent Bank Support for Civil Service Reconstruction in Post-conflict Countries; Appui recent de la Banque a la reconstruction de la fonction publique dans les pays sortant d'un conflit

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Brief; Publications & Research
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.18%
Civil service reconstruction is important in post-conflict countries because conflict erodes institutions and civil service capacity. And because successful reconstruction-in all sectors-requires domestic capacity to implement projects, a weak civil service undermines overall reconstruction efforts. Moreover, donor assistance is crucial to a country's rebuilding, and coordinating such assistance requires a certain amount of civil service capacity.

Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative : Combating the Resource Curse in Fragile and Conflict-Affected Countries

Caspary, Georg; Seiler, Verena
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Brief; Publications & Research
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.35%
Access to extractive industry resources, and to the revenues springing from them, is at the root of many conflicts. Recent examples include the several wars fought, in part, over access to oil in the Middle East and wars fueled by 'blood diamonds' in West Africa. The Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI), launched in 2002 and endorsed by the World Bank in 2003, has provided tangible governance improvements in resource-rich conflict-affected countries. It works with multiple stakeholders, a coalition of governments, companies, investors, international organizations, and civil society organizations (CSOs), to manage a process of publication and verification of company payments and government revenues from oil, gas, and mining. This smart lesson shares our experience implementing EITI in five prominent conflict countries and provides recommendations and lessons that may inform implementers of other World Bank programs in Fragile and conflict-affected countries.

Post-Conflict Aid, Real Exchange Rate Adjustment, and Catch-up Growth

Elbadawi, Ibrahim A.; Kaltani, Linda; Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.44%
Post-conflict countries receive substantial aid flows after the start of peace. While post-conflict countries' capacity to absorb aid (that is, the quality of their policies and institutions) is built up only gradually after the onset of peace, the evidence suggests that aid tends to peak immediately after peace is attained and decline thereafter. Aid composition broadly reflects post-conflict priorities, with large parts of aid financing social expenditure and infrastructure investment. Aid has significant short-term effects on the real exchange rate (RER), as inferred from the behavior of RER in the world. While moderate RER overvaluation is observed in post-conflicts, it cannot be traced down to the aid flows. The empirical evidence on world growth reveals new findings about the pattern of catch-up growth during post-conflicts and the role of key growth determinants on post-conflict growth. Aid is an important determinant of growth, both generally and more strongly during post-conflict periods. Because RER misalignment reduces growth...

Innovative Approaches to Microfinance in Post-Conflict Situations : Bosnia Local Initiatives Project

Kuehnast, Kathleen
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Brief; Publications & Research
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.24%
Over the past five years, the World Bank has developed useful post-conflict strategies that better meet the unique needs of war-torn countries. The Local Initiatives Project (LIP) in Bosnia presents a new standard of responsive social development in the Bank. While it demonstrates the need to use traditional project cycle practices, it also brings into focus many innovative approaches that may be considered in non-conflict settings as well, especially when pilot projects are used effectively. Post-conflict countries must deal with a great number of problems in short order. But such difficult predicaments also can yield important opportunities that should not be overlooked. The Bosnia Local Initiatives Project was able to cope with the problems and take advantage of the rapidly changing economic terrain. One advantage of the LIP was that the task manager (TM) was based in the field. The TM was able to track changes in attitudes and behavior of government officials and take advantage of opportunities for adaptive learning to redesign the project and create sustainable institutions. Because the economic and political arenas in a post-conflict country are fluid...

Violent Conflict and the Road Sector : Points of Interaction

Rebosio, Michelle; Wam, Per Egil
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Other Infrastructure Study; Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.3%
Roads are vital in the stabilization and reconstruction of a conflict-affected country. These initiatives impact population groups and their relationship with one-another through infrastructure construction and maintenance, through processes of decision-making and participation, and most significantly through their outcomes. The impacts of roads sector initiatives are felt by large sections of the population and can have effects not only on those directly benefitting from the project but on economic growth, resource distribution, governance, and security. These wide-ranging effects can in turn impact conflict and a country's prospects for stability and resilience. This note is organized in the following way: section one presents the methodology of the study, including the selection of cases and sources of information. Section two presents the conflict context, including a description of some of the main characteristics of these contexts that could have profound implications for development initiatives. Section three discusses the tradeoffs that those working in the roads sector usually need to make in a conflict context. Section four looks at key areas of interaction between the roads sector and conflict...